What are you thinking, CYCLING RELATED, on tariff subject

[Hilltopwalters]

inb4 locked thread:

if you want to wax poetic/argue politics/etc go to debatepolitics.com, it's like the Paceline but with angrier cloud shouting (at times the possibility of such a thing is hard to fathom) lolz.

tl;dr:

insulate yourself as best you can from the vagaries of circumstance. Whether that is bicycle products, political change, the contingencies of life or otherwise. Most of us here are awash in bikes and parts and do enough inter-forumite trading and business that whatever may come up on the road (so to speak) is something we likely will be able to manage (with respect to our hobby). It's what makes us bicycle fanatics.
So, be cool.

[jamesdak]

Originally Posted by tommyrod74

I don't think anyone's ignoring the past few years of (relatively) high inflation. I think some are questioning the wisdom of promising policy changes that have been proven historically to raise prices for consumers.

One has happened already and cant be changed (though it has been largely contained). One is promised and looming. One was, at least to a great extent, thrust upon us (the pandemic). The other will be a conscious choice, and an unforced error if it comes to pass.

If you're someone who won't focus more on what is to come than what has already been, I'm not sure how to convince you otherwise.

I'm already prepared because I always look ahead. But this is nothing new so life goes on. I do find it hypocritical though on many posting here. I had assumed the current admin had undone the previos admin's tarriffs. You know since they are so bad and no one here has been freaking for the last four years about them. Yet the link provided earlier showed that the current admin kept the majority of them in place and even added to some. Yet no angst about that. I wonder why?

But anyway, I'm to play bikes. Not this silly stuff so I'm done. Enjoy! :-)

[julian3141]

Originally Posted by jamesdak

I'm already prepared because I always look ahead. But this is nothing new so life goes on. I do find it hypocritical though on many posting here. I had assumed the current admin had undone the previos admin's tarriffs. You know since they are so bad and no one here has been freaking for the last four years about them. Yet the link provided earlier showed that the current admin kept the majority of them in place and even added to some. Yet no angst about that. I wonder why?

But anyway, I'm to play bikes. Not this silly stuff so I'm done. Enjoy! :-)

I am a little late to this party but my two cents is that tariffs aren't great. The current administration should have taken down the current tariffs. They were left in place for political not economic reasons. It is easy and popular for a politician to blame China. The economic data are clear that they have done nothing to spur job growth, and in fact, the targeted retaliation has damaged some small sectors of the economy. Any inflationary pressure caused is lost in the mix of the last few years of higher inflation. That being said the tariffs are currently fairly small. If they follow through on 20-25% across-the-board tariffs the effect on the economy will be much larger.

[openwheelracing]

Originally Posted by julian3141

I am a little late to this party but my two cents is that tariffs aren't great. The current administration should have taken down the current tariffs. They were left in place for political not economic reasons. It is easy and popular for a politician to blame China. The economic data are clear that they have done nothing to spur job growth, and in fact, the targeted retaliation has damaged some small sectors of the economy. Any inflationary pressure caused is lost in the mix of the last few years of higher inflation. That being said the tariffs are currently fairly small. If they follow through on 20-25% across-the-board tariffs the effect on the economy will be much larger.

Agree 100%. On top of that, these protectionist/isolationist measures create competitive imbalance long term. The most damaging effect is way down the road and may span decades.

[deluz]

My SIL owns a small coffee roasting company.
He buys the 1 lb coffee bags from China and said that tariffs could impact the business so he is thinking of doing a mass purchase before the tariffs go into effect.

[julian3141]

Originally Posted by openwheelracing

Agree 100%. On top of that, these protectionist/isolationist measures create competitive imbalance long term. The most damaging effect is way down the road and may span decades.

Not to sound naive or whatever, but humankind has become so efficient we could feed the world, solve climate change, explore space, and have money left over for a snack. If we cooperated as a species. I won't hold my breath.

[tommyrod74]

Originally Posted by jamesdak

I'm already prepared because I always look ahead. But this is nothing new so life goes on. I do find it hypocritical though on many posting here. I had assumed the current admin had undone the previos admin's tarriffs. You know since they are so bad and no one here has been freaking for the last four years about them. Yet the link provided earlier showed that the current admin kept the majority of them in place and even added to some. Yet no angst about that. I wonder why?

But anyway, I'm to play bikes. Not this silly stuff so I'm done. Enjoy! :-)

Could it be that having some tariffs in place is OK and might even have desirable outcomes, but a blanket 60% tariff on all Chinese goods (and 20% on all other imported goods) might be detrimental to the economy overall?

Would you not agree that some tariffs =/= tariffs on all imported goods?

I don't see any administration as making all perfect (or poor) decisions, I judge each decision on its own merits. This one has the potential for disaster, as the vast majority of economists agree.

[Fat Cat]

Originally Posted by julian3141

Not to sound naive or whatever, but humankind has become so efficient we could feed the world, solve climate change, explore space, and have money left over for a snack. If we cooperated as a species. I won't hold my breath.

Yeah, don't wait underwater. That'll never happen until the space aliens impose rule. Predator species may change prey but they don't change behavior that is hardwired in the DNA.

[AngryScientist]

Maybe a useful activity might be to make a list of a handful of parts that we know are sourced from China and keep an eye on them based on msrp monthly for the next year or so. Might be interesting.

What are common parts that come out of China? Chains, Cassettes, etc? That could easily be tracked month/month?

[ColonelJLloyd]

The home bicycle mechanic's basket of goods to measure CCPI (cyclist consumer price index)?

[sjbraun]

So if the next president follows through on his plans to enact tariffs, many things in the cycling world could get much more expensive. I'm thinking about stocking up on some consumables: tires, chains and cable sets.
What's the best way to store tires so they don't dry rot or otherwise degrade while in storage for a year or two.

[Mark McM]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

Maybe a useful activity might be to make a list of a handful of parts that we know are sourced from China and keep an eye on them based on msrp monthly for the next year or so. Might be interesting.

What are common parts that come out of China? Chains, Cassettes, etc? That could easily be tracked month/month?

Add to that: Carbon fiber frames, aluminum frames, carbon fiber rims, hubs, brakes, shifters, derailleurs, cranks, bottom brackets, etc. It would be easier to name things that commonly don't come from China (like, maybe, tires).

There have been multiple threads about "made in the USA bikes", in which it has been seen that it is virtually impossible to build a bike from completely USA sourced parts. China might be one of the countries where it is possible to source an entire bike from a single country.

[mstateglfr]

Originally Posted by jamesdak

You mean like they have already been experiencing the last couple of years, right?

Inflation the last 3.5 years has hurt. Yeah even if its only at 2.4% now, thats 2.4% above big prior jumps.
The cost of everything but TVs is really high and its tough to move away from the mindset of 'that used to only cost $X'.

Inflation over the last 3.5 years is not isolated to the US- its been global. And many reports show the US has weathered the storm better than other Western countries/developed economies.
That doesnt mean much to the person that is struggling to buy groceries and pay for all the increased expenses of life, but it is important to keep in mind when discussing the causes of this recent run of inflation.

Inflation would have come regardless of who was president, who was running Congress, and who was overseeing the Fed. And since the US has been hurt less than other similar economies, its tough to say anyone else in those positions of power would have done better.

[mstateglfr]

Originally Posted by bthornt

There is at least one post in this thread that is absolutely in violation of the rules about political posts. Many are close to crossing the line. Is it that hard to just focus on things related to cycling?

Just dont click on the thread.