02-05-2018, 09:13 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 6,172
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NYT: Context Matters. The Stock Market Drop Is Less Scary Than It Seems
If measured by news headlines, you might assume these are dire times in the financial markets.
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This market decline so far has returned the market roughly to its level in mid-December, less than two months ago. The 7.8 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 over the last six trading days is similar in scale and speed to drops in January 2016 and August 2015, neither of which left lasting scars, and is short of the 10 percent drop that would qualify as a market correction.
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The Dow fell by 1,175 points Monday, which represents a quite large 4.6 percent decline. But while it was the biggest single-day point decline, there were steeper percentage declines on several occasions during the global financial crisis and its aftermath, not to mention the 508- point drop in the Dow in 1987 that represented a 22.6 percent market crash.
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The S.&P. 500 did not decline by more than 2 percent on a single trading day in all of 2017, which helps explain why Friday’s 2.1 percent drop seemed so startling. (The percentage drop on Monday was a much rarer event, one that last occurred in 2011.)
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But regardless of which it becomes, it’s good for everyone’s mental health to look beyond the day’s headlines and focus instead on percentage changes instead of point changes — and on historical patterns and the “why” behind the day’s drop in the markets.
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