What are you thinking, CYCLING RELATED, on tariff subject

[merckxman]

Let's not have this devolve into a political discussion. What are people thinking/doing/anticipating about more tariffs in the future as they relate to cycling. I was thinking maybe I should buy somewhat needed things now.

[benb]

I'm not ultra worried.

1) I have enough stuff and I keep bikes long term

2) Consumables aren't *that* bad. If they went up 2x I would grumble but it would have zero impact on my ability to afford cycling.

The place I would think about it would actually be buying a new phone or a computer.

That stuff could all go to hell and I would definitely hit myself in the head if I end up having to buy a $2000 phone in a couple years.

The computer stuff could impact my work as well in terms of huge increases in cost for my employer, our customers, etc.. that would single handedly have the ability to tank the entire economy even if the tariffs were *only* on computer equipment and electronics.

[Likes2ridefar]

I’m doing absolutely nothing because there has been nothing done yet and as an individual can react before anything will impact me directly…at least I think so In the past lots of big ideas that garnered headlines we all enjoyed for 4 years, but execution was always never what was reported.

[herb5998]

There have already been tariffs on some items fabricated within the PRC specifically dealing with frame components (Carbon Forks). It's been around 25% for close to 8 years now, so most of that cost has already been factored in for complete bikes, and for custom shops/importers, there isn't much margin to squeeze out of it as a product.

If they go into effect of items originating outside PRC, I think for the lower end replacement parts/groups, many companies may decide to not even bother importing the items, because the margin on replacement is already so tight for those parts.

[benb]

The bigger issue for bikes is if the PRC goes after the ROC and anything except an instantaneous bloodless takeover without a single shot happens.

We won't even be able to get bike stuff at all if that happens, and the entire global economy will be in the toilet and/or we're not really going to be riding because it's might turn into WW3.

[deluz]

From what I read there could very well be tariffs against European countries.
There are a few items I buy from European websites like Lordgun made in Germany and Italy such as Continental tires and Q36.5 apparel.
It might make sense to buy some extra tires before the tariffs take effect.

[Alistair]

Originally Posted by merckxman

Let's not have this devolve into a political discussion.

But I was told China will pay the tariffs? Are you saying that's not true?!?!

I'm not planning on doing anything other than being annoyed that prices have gone up. I don't have the space to stock up on any more misc parts. And don't need a bike anytime soon.

[sg8357]

Looking forward to Paul and Rene Herse derailleurs taking over the US market.
HandleBra and NewBaums as your sole choices should reduce
the endless handle bar tape threads.

SOPWAMTOS is coming back.

[mhespenheide]

I did snag two R7000 mini-group shift kits, a couple of chainring sets, and a couple of 11-speed 11-34 cassettes. I've already got a stockpile of four or five chains. The potential tariffs were a contributing factor that, combined with the 11/11 sales, pushed me to pull the trigger. But I'd been thinking about doing that for a while now. I'm choosing not to upgrade to 12-speed, so I want to have a healthy cache of 11-speed on hand.

[Mark McM]

It depends on how the tariffs are organized. Even today, there are high tariffs on products imported directly from China, so bicycle manufacturers have frames and parts sent to other nearby countries (Vietnam is popular) for final assembly, to avoid much of the tariffs. Brands/importers will find "inventive" ways around many of the tariffs.

[Alistair]

Originally Posted by Mark McM

It depends on how the tariffs are organized. Even today, there are high tariffs on products imported directly from China, so bicycle manufacturers have frames and parts sent to other nearby countries (Vietnam is popular) for final assembly, to avoid much of the tariffs. Brands/importers will find "inventive" ways around many of the tariffs.

Yep. There's also the "chicken tax" - we levy a 25% tariff on foreign trucks (in retaliation for German tariffs on US poultry). It's been in place for >50 years now. And even with that advantage, GM, Ford, and Chrysler all needed various bailouts over the years. Should have been great for their profit, but they pissed it all away. And regardless, it's a **** situation for consumers.

[benb]

Originally Posted by Alistair

Yep. There's also the "chicken tax" - we levy a 25% tariff on foreign trucks (in retaliation for German tariffs on US poultry). It's been in place for >50 years now. And even with that advantage, GM, Ford, and Chrysler all needed various bailouts over the years. Should have been great for their profit, but they pissed it all away. And regardless, it's a **** situation for consumers.

The Harley Davidson tariffs were also a flavor of this.

[CAAD]

How do these tariffs work with Chinese direct to consumer? Btlos wheels comes to mind. Will we get hit with a tax bill at time of delivery? Even worse some 3rd party company will pay the tax on our behalf and turn around a add a ridiculous processing fee before they release the product.

[benb]

Originally Posted by CAAD

How do these tariffs work with Chinese direct to consumer? Btlos wheels comes to mind. Will we get hit with a tax bill at time of delivery? Even worse some 3rd party company will pay the tax on our behalf and turn around a add a ridiculous processing fee before they release the product.

There are two methods of business IIRC, I think I read this with respect to businesses like Temu. This is all in place right now today. I am not sure which model any of the bike companies are using.

There are two models a business in China can take:

1) Set up a US distributor. Ship big shipments to the US distributor/subsidiary. This saves on logistics costs but all the shipments are big and they go through US customs and they would be subject to any relevant tariffs, fees, taxes. Returns, etc.. can go back to the US subsidiary.

2) Ship individual orders direct from China to the customer. You can sneak past US customs, fees, tariffs, etc.. this way but it increases your logistics & shipping costs. Temu, etc.. I thought I read were trying to do this. There is also the issue here that the PRC apparently makes it really cheap for them to ship goods out, but it is expensive for a consumer to ship anything back for return and that can hurt your reputation.

#2 might stay possible under whatever might happen next year but it sounds like a balancing act, and it's possible there's a way to crack down on #2.

[bigbill]

I'm not too wound up yet. Tariffs are a bargaining tool, what is said in public likely changes in private negotiations. PRC has a bad economy and will likely make some concessions. For the PRC/ROC issue, it will wreck China's economy if they do anything other than execute a peaceful takeover. The Chinese are building new coal plants to lessen their dependence on oil, which could be cut off by shutting down the Strait of Malacca.