OT: Electric Vehicles--anyone driving them or seriously looked at them?

[paredown]

I listened to a very interesting public presentation last night at a local college. The speaker was Eban Goodstein--who is faculty at Bard College's MBA program on sustainability. The takeaway?

Yes, climate change/disruption is at least as bad as we can imagine.

Second--there is a path forward--and some of the changes are going to happen anyway, because the market is already moving us there--like the take up of solar generated power, where it is now more cost-effective that fossil fuel generation, because of price drops/efficiency improvements.

Third, there is going to be an electric vehicle in your near future. Mercedes announced this year that they have designed their last internal combustion engine--this is where the market is going.

Fourth--we have a future before us of self-driving electric cars and battery storage--and it is far, far closer than you think.

Now the question part--has anyone shopped for or purchased an EV recently--or come close and decided against it?

Has anyone taken the steps to add fast charging and/or battery storage at home?

[AngryScientist]

If I still commuted regularly by car and my employer provided a charging station I would do it in a heartbeat. I take the train these days or fly so that’s not the case for me.

EVs are ideal for that type of person. Similarly city life is perfect for compact electric cars if you have a charging location available.

Once you need a truck or van or need to be on the road all day we’re not there yet

[Ozz]

I suspect I just purchased my last gasoline powered vehicle....of course I am usually 10-15 yrs between purchases, I figure the technology will be much better, and availability of charging stations will be much better by then. Power generation will be the big thing to figure out.....

Saw this this morning...looks interesting: Battery breakthrough - Nikola Motor

[Ralph]

My next vehicle purchase will be at least a hybrid. We don't drive as much as we did in past, don't commute to work etc, and have some range anxiety about EV for our traveling, but a hybrid would work fine for us. Have sold all my fossil fuel stocks. And my brothers and I leased land in NC to a solar farm operator.....and I know for a fact the solar farm operator can sell power to Duke cheaper than Duke can generate it (without any subsidies). And in Ariz, Texas, NM, etc.....large solar farms can produce power for about half to 2/3 the cost of a fossil fuel plant. So the future is here now. Imagine many new homes will have fast charging stations as options....or standard. Like in a golf cart community now.

[unterhausen]

I'm probably going to buy a Prius Prime, 25 miles on battery only. That's good around here, although State College is amazingly spread out for a small town. California is changing their tax incentive to cover cars that get 35 miles on battery, so I suppose car companies will be working on that.

[zmudshark]

One of my sons bought a Model 3 last year, and did his own DIY charging station. He plans on a Model Y as soon as it's available. He and his wife both have short commutes.

He thought I was nuts for buying a Mazda CX-5.

Neither of us have regrets,

[Blue Jays]

Mostly work from home with infrequent vehicle use.
When I do drive...cargo capacity is typically needed.

A pretty compelling home charging station offer would need to be presented to my family.
That, plus electric vehicle with sufficient load capacity and available charging at destination.

[572cv]

The next vehicle I'll have to replace (the oldest) is the pickup truck. The EV trucks are almost on the market, as I read it. That'll be the ticket into this world for me, I think.

[R3awak3n]

Originally Posted by AngryScientist

If I still commuted regularly by car and my employer provided a charging station I would do it in a heartbeat. I take the train these days or fly so that’s not the case for me.

EVs are ideal for that type of person. Similarly city life is perfect for compact electric cars if you have a charging location available.

Once you need a truck or van or need to be on the road all day we’re not there yet

Agree 100%. I have driven a model 3, its very nice and it is just unbeatable as far as money saved and commute is the best place for this since you don't really have to worry about the charging aspect (if you do have a charging station at each end... I mean, even if you only have one at home and its fully charged you can go to work and come back and still have plenty of juice if your commute is within reasonable distance).

[oldpotatoe]

Agree for the most part BUT.

Third, there is going to be an electric vehicle in your near future. Mercedes announced this year that they have designed their last internal combustion engine--this is where the market is going.

Fourth--we have a future before us of self-driving electric cars and battery storage--and it is far, far closer than you think.

Define 'near future'. With gas still around the $2.50-$3.50 range, I just don't see the $ advantage particularly considering even the cheapest EV is $30,000 or so...and that Fed $7500 isn't forever.

We’ve pored over our rankings to find every battery-electric car with a starting price that’s less than $50,000. Actually, most of the cars on our list have an MSRP between $30,000 and $40,000. It’s important to note that cars using battery power alone qualify for a federal electric vehicle tax credit of $7,500.

Battery storage is better but recharging times and charging station availability still really lacking. These can be OK local commuters, in some communities, but for a lot of people, like me, they just aren't even close to practical. For example...taking a recent trip to the USAF academy for wife's ID card.

Mid priced EV, say Nissan Leaf, $29,000-$48,000,

Posted as 150 mile range..probably in the cold or hot, less..180 mile round trip..

There are a total of 0 EV charging stations within a 10-mile radius of the center of 80840 (USAF Academy, CO).

So...yup, gas costs $(but so does electricity)...$15 gas for the trip...

Kinda chicken and egg argument. Build charging stations which means more EV cars or more EV cars then more charging stations. Right now, there isn't a HUGE financial reason to buy one considering it's disadvantages(price, range, charging stations).

If the companies will build lots more EVs, they gotta then sell them to get charging stations, etc....Right now, the main reason people buy EVs is the 'feel good', 'doing something about climate change', argument. IMHO.

[zap]

Add another 50 real miles to the range for a total of 350 and I'm in.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a2...t-ev-revealed/

[marsh]

Part of me worries that the lessened environmental impact of oil will be replaced with lithium mining https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lith...ronment-impact.

[redir]

I still don't see EV's as a better way forward for the environment. Where's all the power going to come from? Batteries are not exactly environmentally friendly either. I mean EV's certainly help but it would be better if people just stopped driving all together. There is a lot of promise in the future of nuclear energy especially in with Traveling-Wave Reactors.

[paredown]

Originally Posted by redir

I still don't see EV's as a better way forward for the environment. Where's all the power going to come from? Batteries are not exactly environmentally friendly either. I mean EV's certainly help but it would be better if people just stopped driving all together. There is a lot of promise in the future of nuclear energy especially in with Traveling-Wave Reactors.

The assumption of the talk last night--and as Ralph mentions, the production side numbers are there--is that there will be a switch to solar field electric generation. The idea is that we are witnessing a convergence of dropping costs of production for solar and improving EV specs--and that we may witness a switch to "solar dominance' (over 50% of production by solar) in very short order.

The speaker was very clear--even at the current historically low natural gas price points, solar generated power is cheaper, and there are no plans to build more fossil fuel power plants in the US.

I'm still reading more to flesh out what he spoke about...

On the 'cost to drive' side--using 2016 numbers, Plugless has this cool national map--state by state, whether or not it pays to drive electric--if you are buying power from the current grid. Conclusion:

"Surprisingly, even with these disadvantages it is cheaper to drive on electricity than gasoline in all 50 US states. On average it is $60 cheaper per month to drive on electricity than gasoline."

https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/...gas-50-states/

Originally Posted by marsh

Part of me worries that the lessened environmental impact of oil will be replaced with lithium mining https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lith...ronment-impact.

Originally Posted by redir

I still don't see EV's as a better way forward for the environment. Where's all the power going to come from? Batteries are not exactly environmentally friendly either. I mean EV's certainly help but it would be better if people just stopped driving all together. There is a lot of promise in the future of nuclear energy especially in with Traveling-Wave Reactors.

Yes--the Bill Gates initiative on reactors is fascinating--but that may be a wild card because of fear.

If our speaker is right, simple economics will take us to solar generation for power for most of us--and the smart money is already moving there. (Ralph is absolutely right--dump your conventional utility stock--and GE whose market cap is getting destroyed because no one wants to by gas fired turbines...)

And the speaker did acknowledge there is a clear environmental trade-off as we develop more battery/solar power reliance--but there are two provisos--lots of work being done on improved battery chemistry (less reliance on lithium)--and (as already is happening) the value of rare metals tends to provoke recycling programs even if the government doesn't act. My recent favorite thing--there is a thriving private recycling market for catalytic converters from cars because the metals are valuable, just like a thriving market in recycled Prius batteries from wrecked cars emerged more or less overnight...

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by paredown

The assumption of the talk last night--and as Ralph mentions, the production side numbers are there--is that there will be a switch to solar field electric generation.

The speaker was very clear--even at the current historically low natural gas price points, solar generated power is cheaper, and there are no plans to build more fossil fuel power plants in the US.

I'm still reading more to flesh out what he spoke about...

On the 'cost to drive' side--using 2016 numbers, Plugless has this cool national map--state by state, whether or not it pays to drive electric--if you are buying power from the current grid. Conclusion:


https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/...gas-50-states/

Not exactly..

EIA’s long-term projections show that most of the electricity generating capacity additions installed in the United States through 2050 will be natural gas combined-cycle and solar photovoltaic (PV)

AND natural gas electricity generation will be with us for a long time to come.