What's going on with the bike supply chain?

[jwin]

So I'm over on another forum and the mountain bikers are talking about big supply chain backups with Shimano/SRAM and frames too. Saying that any of the big manufacturers that will meet their April 2021 delivery deadline will be lucky. Things like 2021 shortage will be even worse.

Is anyone in touch with what's going on in the supply chain? I thought the kinks would have been figured out by now.

[jimoots]

Originally Posted by jwin

Is anyone in touch with what's going on in the supply chain? I thought the kinks would have been figured out by now.

“Kink” understates the issue; its time that has been lost. It is very difficult to make up lost time in manufacturing. Shimano - I don’t need to state how huge an OEM supplier they are - is over 90 days behind. Those sort of issues compound.

Combine that with increased demand and it’s the perfect storm we find ourselves in.

It’ll affect the smaller big boys more than the big big boys; Giant will be fine, Cannondale will be in a tougher position.

[jwin]

Originally Posted by jimmy-moots

“Kink” understates the issue; its time that has been lost. It is very difficult to make up lost time in manufacturing. Shimano - I don’t need to state how huge an OEM supplier they are - is over 90 days behind. Those sort of issues compound.

Combine that with increased demand and it’s the perfect storm we find ourselves in.

It’ll affect the smaller big boys more than the big big boys; Giant will be fine, Cannondale will be in a tougher position.

I get that especially if they’re running at 100% capacity, but are they trying to scale or are they expecting to eventually absorb the backlog? If they’re trying to scale, what’s the timeline on that? Years?


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[Pinned]

Shimano lead times have stretched to 7 or 8 months on many of the current groupsets, they're not increasing production capacity beyond what they can manufacture with current equipment.

SRAM is a bit better, but still far behind their standard lead times.

Normally lead times for groups are 30-90 days depending on the OE.

Unfortunately the bike shops, small brands, and ultimately the customers will be the ones who get the shortest end of this stick. Support your LBS as much as you can - for as good a spring as they had, they're all likely struggling right now.

[jimoots]

Originally Posted by jwin

I get that especially if they’re running at 100% capacity, but are they trying to scale or are they expecting to eventually absorb the backlog? If they’re trying to scale, what’s the timeline on that? Years?


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I am not privy to that sort of discussion but we are talking a business that is hugely intensive on capital; the business case for spending money on more plant and equipment when you’ve already lost huge dollars due to shutdowns and/or running at less than capacity is tenuous.

Say, if I were Shimano and it were my money, I wouldn’t build a new factory to catch up on demand knowing that factory would run at less than capacity once I’m caught up.

But like I said, not privy to it. And not being in the room making these sort of decisions is a privilege. I’m sure everyone is doing there best to make lemonade.

[verticaldoug]

If you have the ability to source something you want from Japan directly, you should just buy it there and ship. It will cost a premium, but you don't have to wait.

Japan is one of the few countries which has not seen an increase in bicycle demand, and inventory levels in the country are fine. (as per Shimano)

The rest of the world, demand is fierce for anything bike related. I waited a long time for my new Campy wheels. The Pinarello shop told me they have a backlog in bikes out into next summer.

It is funny walking into Evans Cycles and there are no cycles.




As for shimano bottom line taking a hit, sales did decline 15% Q2, but since they are all up YOY and the stock has advanced 32% this year.

[peanutgallery]

2021 is basically sold out as far as bikes. The only dealers getting bikes are the ones are the ones willing to place huge orders dictated by the manufacturer and pay up front. Even then, you may not get anything. That train left the station a month or 3 ago, not everyone got on it

Parts and accessories are getting a little better but still not great. 2022 or 2023 is when things might get back to normal. Until then, it's only service and pocket lint

[oldpotatoe]

Just talked to Jerry at Campagnolo, NA and Campagnolo’s problem is raw materials, as is there is none. Not only for what they use but also some of their suppliers, like the factory that makes their small bits, nuts and bolts. Steel, aluminum, titanium, carbon fiber....COVID has had an effect on these industries. Throw in YUGE demand for bike stuff and the relatively small amount of stuff the bike industry uses, compared to cars, aircraft, soda cans, other gigantic manufacturers with tons of $....it’s gonna take a while to catch up.

A lot of bike stuff manufacturers aren’t running at full capacity, because of the above.

[JSL]

If you think about how many vendors are necessary for producing a single complete bike, it's amazing anything makes it out the door these days. Just takes one missing saddle clamp to stop the entire line.

[Velocipede]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Just talked to Jerry at Campagnolo, NA and Campagnolo’s problem is raw materials, as is there is none. Not only for what they use but also some of their suppliers, like the factory that makes their small bits, nuts and bolts. Steel, aluminum, titanium, carbon fiber....COVID has had an effect on these industries. Throw in YUGE demand for bike stuff and the relatively small amount of stuff the bike industry uses, compared to cars, aircraft, soda cans, other gigantic manufacturers with tons of $....it’s gonna take a while to catch up.

A lot of bike stuff manufacturers aren’t running at full capacity, because of the above.

What OP said is 100% correct. I am an OEM/Small Builder and speak to people every week about this cause I need parts. I have builds in the works. What OP said about Campy in general is correct. They are running staggered half-shifts. No raw materials. Shimano is running into material shortages as well. The are running staggered halves as well. SRAM, is starting to hit the materials issues now. I was told they are running full shifts which surprises me.

The smaller builder/components company, they are running full bore. All of my guys are running full steam and are swamped. The only one limiting shifts/people is Aivee because their parent company is Airbus and they have a ton of people crossover and the contact spread could be bigger.

Most companies are saying April for parts. It's weird to hear that but it's almost Dec 1. So I guess it's not horribly far away.

[oldpotatoe]

The only one limiting shifts/people is Aivee because their parent company is Airbus

Wow, that’s interesting..Airbus...now there’s a company that uses a LOT of raw materials.

[Velocipede]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Wow, that’s interesting..Airbus...now there’s a company that uses a LOT of raw materials.

Yeah, I had no idea till we were talking about insurance. I told them I carry insurance here and they were like, you can use our policy... $20 million dollars. I was like ok? Then they told me who the parent company was. Yeah, LOTS of raw materials. They are good right now though. I think that's cause COVID stopped everything earlier and they had a glut of aluminum. Their anodizer is backed up right now. I am getting things done here to help out when I need to.

[Dave]

I looked for 160mm Campy rotors at many websites that had none. A lot of tire models or sizes are out of stock nearly everywhere. I should buy a couple more tires, to get me through next year.

[Velocipede]

Originally Posted by Dave

I looked for 160mm Campy rotors at many websites that had none. A lot of tire models or sizes are out of stock nearly everywhere. I should buy a couple more tires, to get me through next year.

Gotta know a guy.

[redir]

They will be racing the Tour De France on cobbled together 9-speed bikes.