[jimcav]

In prior threads, I pointed out the models' predictions were NOT tracking the actual data here in the USA. The IMHE model initially had 38k-162k dying, now it has been updated to suggest 100k-240k. Yesterday it predicted 27 dead in CA, we had 30 die. That is off by 10% for my state--the potential growth rate that carries forward is alarming, and the prediction is/was already alarming. I still believe the R0 is underestimated because the rate of asymptomatic spread is underestimated and the model assumes people are practicing the isolation, hygiene, and distancing required. CA has been pretty good on SIP and messaging, yet I still see people ignoring the edicts on spacing--passing on sidewalk without stepping into yards or streets, construction where workers are closer (than 6'), people not adhering to it in grocery isles, etc. Please, until testing is widespread and it PROVES SARS-CoV-2 is not near you, we should all act as if it is. While I'm looking at data for my area and the USA, this applies anywhere that there isn't wide testing. Because I have a mother-in-law in her 80s who I love dearly, and a younger family member at very high risk, I am grateful I have enough knowledge and experience to read through data and papers to give them advice in advance of official guidance. But it is just so scary and sad to see this unfold, and I almost wish I didn't know and understand what is coming. Please be careful, deliberate, and help others do the same. If you aren't literally on the front lines or directly supporting those, it is what me must do. I almost typed "all we can do", but that sounds like it is a limited thing, but it isn't. It is the necessary and sufficient thing to make a real difference. Please, let us all make the model OVERESTIMATE.