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Old 11-20-2019, 09:54 AM
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paredown paredown is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redir View Post
I still don't see EV's as a better way forward for the environment. Where's all the power going to come from? Batteries are not exactly environmentally friendly either. I mean EV's certainly help but it would be better if people just stopped driving all together. There is a lot of promise in the future of nuclear energy especially in with Traveling-Wave Reactors.
The assumption of the talk last night--and as Ralph mentions, the production side numbers are there--is that there will be a switch to solar field electric generation. The idea is that we are witnessing a convergence of dropping costs of production for solar and improving EV specs--and that we may witness a switch to "solar dominance' (over 50% of production by solar) in very short order.

The speaker was very clear--even at the current historically low natural gas price points, solar generated power is cheaper, and there are no plans to build more fossil fuel power plants in the US.

I'm still reading more to flesh out what he spoke about...

On the 'cost to drive' side--using 2016 numbers, Plugless has this cool national map--state by state, whether or not it pays to drive electric--if you are buying power from the current grid. Conclusion:
Quote:
"Surprisingly, even with these disadvantages it is cheaper to drive on electricity than gasoline in all 50 US states. On average it is $60 cheaper per month to drive on electricity than gasoline."
https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/...gas-50-states/

Quote:
Originally Posted by marsh View Post
Part of me worries that the lessened environmental impact of oil will be replaced with lithium mining https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lith...ronment-impact.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redir View Post
I still don't see EV's as a better way forward for the environment. Where's all the power going to come from? Batteries are not exactly environmentally friendly either. I mean EV's certainly help but it would be better if people just stopped driving all together. There is a lot of promise in the future of nuclear energy especially in with Traveling-Wave Reactors.
Yes--the Bill Gates initiative on reactors is fascinating--but that may be a wild card because of fear.

If our speaker is right, simple economics will take us to solar generation for power for most of us--and the smart money is already moving there. (Ralph is absolutely right--dump your conventional utility stock--and GE whose market cap is getting destroyed because no one wants to by gas fired turbines...)

And the speaker did acknowledge there is a clear environmental trade-off as we develop more battery/solar power reliance--but there are two provisos--lots of work being done on improved battery chemistry (less reliance on lithium)--and (as already is happening) the value of rare metals tends to provoke recycling programs even if the government doesn't act. My recent favorite thing--there is a thriving private recycling market for catalytic converters from cars because the metals are valuable, just like a thriving market in recycled Prius batteries from wrecked cars emerged more or less overnight...

Last edited by paredown; 11-20-2019 at 10:11 AM.
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