What determines a bike's value?

[d.vader123]

We all know that buying a production car can be one of the worst financial investments a person can make. You go to the dealer, spend anywhere between $15,000-$60,000 on a new car and you lose several thousand dollars in resale value the minute you drive it out the lot.

How do bikes fare in general? What makes some bikes appreciate in value over time? I'm asking because I saw a Rene Herse and was wowed at how unique that bike looked. Actually, I was really impressed with the stem.

[Dave B]

Honestly and not to be terribly trite.

Demand. Unique is the rarity, mystique, and desire of the buyer.

Limitedness of the bike as well

[rugbysecondrow]

Nevermind

[d.vader123]

Honestly and not to be terribly trite.

Demand. Unique is the rarity, mystique, and desire of the buyer.

Limitedness of the bike as wellGreat answer. I think I would totally agree with you on that. I guess the same would go with cars. Obviously a Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic wouldn't do as well because they're so prevalent, but a classic sports car from the 50s may fare better.

With that said, I should mention that the impetus for asking about bicycle values started when I was reading on a message forum about the brompton bikes. Someone was selling his brompton and people were telling him that he should be able to sell it close to what he paid for because bromptons hold their values well.

I was wondering how bromptons do that? Are they really in that much of a demand?

[Wilkinson4]

The other guy determines the value, or specifically two other guys:D Rarity, desire, and competitiveness.

mIKE

[Terry312]

All the above, plus condition.

[Aaron O]

There are VERY few bikes that appreciate in value...the best you can usually hope for is keeping up with inflation.

Take a Rene Herse...they typically sell for around $10,000ish - $18,000ish, and that's about the top end value of a bike. Those bikes were a FORTUNE when new...maybe not quite that much in today dollars, but not far behind. And that's just about the most desired bike around.

Don't buy a new bike because you want a collectible, or an investment. Buy a new bike as an investment for the rides.

[oliver1850]

It will be interesting to see what happens to the value of quality steel bikes in the next 10-20 years. I've been happy to buy them recently, because they seem cheap to me compared to what they sold for new. A LeMond Zurich was a $2000 bike in 2000. When I can buy a frame in good condition for under $200, it's hard to pass up. I really have no idea whether it (or a used Serotta or Colnago) will be worth more, or less, in 10 years time.

[fogrider]

There are VERY few bikes that appreciate in value...the best you can usually hope for is keeping up with inflation.

Take a Rene Herse...they typically sell for around $10,000ish - $18,000ish, and that's about the top end value of a bike. Those bikes were a FORTUNE when new...maybe not quite that much in today dollars, but not far behind. And that's just about the most desired bike around.

Don't buy a new bike because you want a collectible, or an investment. Buy a new bike as an investment for the rides.
yeah, a bike's value is determined when it's ridden. the more it sits, the less its worth.

[LouDeeter]

I wrote the Used Bike Buyers Guide with the intent of offering pricing information, such as found in Kelly Blue Book for cars. But, early on, I found that there is just too much variation in makes, models, tubing, componentry and condition to put prices on them. Sheldon Brown and Mike Kone tried it and their results are still found on-line, albeit a price range, that is tied very much to condition and rarity. Ebay has expanded the ability to see real auction data and that helps to determine price. But, for me, the key is how much you paid in the first place. If you are only talking new, then you will not find many modern bikes that will appreciate in value. But, if you are talking used, then it comes down to negotiating skills, patience, knowledge, and fatness of your checkbook. Herse, Singer, Confente, and Baylis are four bikes that I believe will hold their value over the next 10-15 years if you don't overspend in the first place, but then, the purchase price is always the wild card isn't it. There are specific models of some of the classics, such as Hetchins & Colnago that could be added to that list. Perhaps a few others, but to each his own.

[tugrul]

The amount of air time they get on forums like these.

[jr59]

I would have to say that buying a bike as monetary investment is a VERY poor idea. Things change. Fashion and style can be very fickled thing.

Now to buy one as a ride investment, thats GREAT! To make money on, not so much.

An example would be in Rolex watches; When I was a young man, (a long time ago), I sold more than a few Rolex subs for about 500-750 each. You couldn't give that style of watch away. While on the other hand, EVERYONE want a two tone datejust, and I couldn't get one of those to sell, and even if I did, I would have kept it for myself.
In todays market, it is just reversed, Most want the Rolex sport models and don't care for the datejust. Things change.

With bikes, I would suggest buying something you like and want to ride, rather than buying something you think that will go up in value.

IMO!

One more thing, a bike, like anything else, is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, not one penny more.
That being said, if two people want said bike, the price may go VERY high indeed. :)

[Aaron O]

I wrote the Used Bike Buyers Guide with the intent of offering pricing information, such as found in Kelly Blue Book for cars. But, early on, I found that there is just too much variation in makes, models, tubing, componentry and condition to put prices on them. Sheldon Brown and Mike Kone tried it and their results are still found on-line, albeit a price range, that is tied very much to condition and rarity. Ebay has expanded the ability to see real auction data and that helps to determine price. But, for me, the key is how much you paid in the first place. If you are only talking new, then you will not find many modern bikes that will appreciate in value. But, if you are talking used, then it comes down to negotiating skills, patience, knowledge, and fatness of your checkbook. Herse, Singer, Confente, and Baylis are four bikes that I believe will hold their value over the next 10-15 years if you don't overspend in the first place, but then, the purchase price is always the wild card isn't it. There are specific models of some of the classics, such as Hetchins & Colnago that could be added to that list. Perhaps a few others, but to each his own.

I was only talking about new bikes...

I think you're dead on mentioning Hetchins - ESPECIALLY for new bikes. I think a lot of people don't realize they're still around...and are actually, by custom standards, VERY inexpensive. You can get a curly stay Hetchins, new, for around 1500ish. Those tend to keep their value because people see those stays and unload their wallets. If you strictly are looking for return on investment, I think Hetchins, Colnago and Rivendell are the way to go.

I've done VERY well buying used bikes, but it's because, as you suggest, I generally buy low.

[Fixed]

memories
cheers

[Wilkinson4]

Craftsmenship, surprised that hasn't been brought up. Confente, Herse, Singer, Baylis, etc... All have that is spades, well, Confente has it in spades.

We don't covet and pay big bucks for a Huffy. Not counting Serotta built Huffy.

mIKE

[67-59]

memories
cheers

Amen, bro....

[Aaron O]

Craftsmenship, surprised that hasn't been brought up. Confente, Herse, Singer, Baylis, etc... All have that is spades, well, Confente has it in spades.

We don't covet and pay big bucks for a Huffy. Not counting Serotta built Huffy.

mIKE

Respectfully, I think branding has more to do with value than quality. I don't think Confente, Herse or Singer are near the build quality of the current crop of US builders after seeing photos of their bare frames and I think it has more to do with scarcity and reputation. Raleigh Internationals and PX-10s sell for more than higher end Japanese bikes - which is higher quality? Colnagos sell for more than Grandis...do you think they are of a higher level of workmanship? They're just better known. Masis sell for a premium more because of Breaking Away and kids wanting to grow up to be Dave than for any higher quality level compared to many others.

[jr59]

Respectfully, I think branding has more to do with value than quality. I don't think Confente, Herse or Singer are near the build quality of the current crop of US builders after seeing photos of their bare frames and I think it has more to do with scarcity and reputation. Raleigh Internationals and PX-10s sell for more than higher end Japanese bikes - which is higher quality? Colnagos sell for more than Grandis...do you think they are of a higher level of workmanship? They're just better known. Masis sell for a premium more because of Breaking Away and kids wanting to grow up to be Dave than for any higher quality level compared to many others.


Beg to differ.

Both Tom Kellogg and e-richie have both been quoted that when they saw Confente's frames they had to step it up.

That's some pretty high praise coming from those 2!

[Aaron O]

I don't know enough to argue, and I've never ridden one, but my gut feeling is that his bikes are as valuable as they are because of scarcity. I don't think anyone is buying a Confente to ride it at this point, which is, ultimately, how quality is determined. I spoke with another builder, who shall remain nameless, who said they were of the same caliber as Marinonis and the like - with more panto.

I fully admit I might be totally off base :) I often am.

I also think, in general, if you watch ebay sales - the bikes with the right branding go higher than bikes of similar, or greater quality.

[Wilkinson4]

Respectfully, I think branding has more to do with value than quality.

Point well taken Aaron. Especially the examples you cited. I have always wondered how the bikes built today will be seen 30-40 years out.

Although overall the handbuilts today are of much higher quality, I think that they may not be coveted like the bikes collectors collect today.

I have a Baylis, Toei, Mclean and Gordon in my fleet. I think the Baylis will hold its value better than the others but who knows.

mIKE

[Doug Fattic]

Respectfully, I think branding has more to do with value than quality. I don't think Confente, Herse or Singer are near the build quality of the current crop of US builders after seeing photos of their bare frames and I think it has more to do with scarcity and reputation. Raleigh Internationals and PX-10s sell for more than higher end Japanese bikes - which is higher quality? Colnagos sell for more than Grandis...do you think they are of a higher level of workmanship? They're just better known. Masis sell for a premium more because of Breaking Away and kids wanting to grow up to be Dave than for any higher quality level compared to many others.
I certainly agree with Aaron on this one and I do have some experience to make that judgment. Volume is one part of the formula that contributes to a higher and more sustained value of a classic frame. Those that have taken more time to do a better job make fewer frames and that counter intuitively downgrades their marketing and eventual long time worth. Before and after I apprenticed in Europe I visited just about every framebuilder in England (and many in Italy and some in France). Some like Harry Quinn made a couple of frames a day, others like where I was at Ellis Briggs made one a week. The difference in quality between them is obvious (at least to a trained observer). Their (E-B’s) one framebuilder only added value to the whole Ellis-Briggs bike shop enterprise and wasn’t necessary for income so that is why he could spend the extra time on making a frame. They are not a well-known brand because they didn’t/don’t have a big output and are located in small town near Bradford/Leeds where nobody goes to visit. I don’t think Rene Herse would have been as well known if he wasn’t from Paris.

There was another British builder in particular that I thought was a super-master. He ran a bike shop that provided the finances that allowed him to spend extra time on making his frames. A couple of years ago I got snipped in a bidding war on eBay and his absolutely beautiful frame went for only $150. His smaller output and location in a non-tourist town contributed to lack of interest in this sale.

I had a Hetchins and Italian Masi made for me back in the late 60’s and early 70’s. I’ve still got them. These frames are nicer compared to their European competition but are not nearly as good as top American made frames today. It turned out my Masi was made by Confente. Part of my motive for going into framebuilding is because I wanted a personal frame made better than those that I had. I saw the Confente frames at the New York show too. I thought they were nice and a step up in quality from what typically came out of Europe up to that time but didn’t see them as something more than what other top Americans did at the time.

When we American builders started making frames in the 70’s, we needed to visually show the quality of our work. I always made the sales pitch that if I took the time file the lugs and other joints nicely I wouldn’t scrimp on functional aspects of the frame either.

One of the points I’ll make to my framebuilding class that starts Monday is that the most successful shops usually have a high enough volume output to get noticed. Hetchins had more than Jack Denny making his frames and Faliero Masi and Ernesto Colnago oversaw their multi-worker operations rather than doing any brazing anymore themselves (kind of like Ben Serotta). I doubt they would be famous today if they had remained one-man shops. Successful framebuilding business practices are not directly related to building the highest quality possible product.

My list of framebuilders I would choose - if I wasn’t a builder myself - are names almost never mentioned on this forum (except maybe Brian Baylis). Since I’ve seen the insides of most shops I know what I’m looking for. That doesn’t mean some of the most famous names don’t make a wonderful product, they do. But neither does it mean they make what I would be looking for in a frame either.

[jr59]

I have a question Doug.

How much has modern technology improved over the last 30 years?

Not just in tubing, but in how it mitered? How the tubes are cut? How the set up is measured? Not to mention the overall improvement in lugs.

I guess I misunderstood the Question by Arron.

I would never compare many things that were made 30-40 years ago against what is done today. With a few exceptions of course.

[rounder]

Amen, bro....

+1

[Doug Fattic]

What has really changed from the frames made in Europe 30 or 40 years ago and the product of today’s American builder is that more money is now available to purchase them so a better product can be provided. Most classic builders used simple tools and lots of talent and were limited on average to only 1 day of labor to keep costs low. Otherwise typical buyers couldn’t afford them. It was a job of modest financial and social rewards. Today’s American buyer is upper middle class with sufficient disposable money to get whatever they want. After gas rationing was lifted in England after the war, those rich enough to buy cars weren’t buying bicycles so it was a product for the working class. This social context largely defined how frames were and are built.

So we can now take more time to build a nicer frame. Those that are competitively priced are made in 20 hours or so and some better builders take 40 hours or more. Keep in mind that a builder requires at least double that time to take care of his business.

We do have much nicer frame making equipment available to us today. I saw few alignment tables and not much in the way of jigs and fixtures in my 70’s European tours. I have several vertical mills and a lathe in my shop that would have been an extravagance years ago. I have a fixture on my Bridgeport that can miter a tube to a thousandth of an inch tolerance. Jigs today from Anvil and Sputnik cost thousands of dollars.

We are also more refined in how we fit and design a custom frame. Not all framebuilders are fitters but I certainly am and have special equipment to do it. I designed (with the help of about 8 different engineers) and have laser cut and etched a fixture out of stainless steel that can convert a bicycle position into a frame design. When I visited the Taylor Brothers, Norman the framebuilder used a sheet of plywood with pencil marks. So certainly we have gotten a lot more sophisticated in several areas of our work.