bike of the future predictions...

[dancinkozmo]

so i found this interesting quote from mike (mariposa) barry from 2002 in an old rivendell reader about what bikes will be like in 2010....

..."Well, 2010. that's only eight years away. I think 99% will be aluminum and made in the Orient. The traditional spoked wheel will have been almost completely replaced by odd spoke patterns that go way out of true if a spoke should break. I think the MTB will have had its day. I think that people are at last beginning to realize that it is not ideal for the use most people put it to. I'm sure that some marketing whiz will come up with some equally inappropriate bike. I hope that the recent fad for suspension is gone and I the think that it will be. "...

...so what do you guys think bikes will be like in 10 years time ?
will crabon fibre have come and gone ?

personally, i think as gas prices go up , the us economy declines and the "armstrong effect" dissipates there is going to be a resurgence in metal framed, non-racing oriented, utilitarian cycling....external derailers may finally be eclipsed by internal hub gears....
and that little motor cancellara used will become widely available to us joe 6 packs and sally wine boxes :)

[thwart]

Belt drive will get bigger play.

City bikes will become even more popular.

And... steel will come back and crush carbon fiber... as smart cyclists realize that weight weenies are...

... just little wieners.

[martinrjensen]

Wow, that's just so off target I can hardly believe itso i found this interesting quote from mike (mariposa) barry from 2002 in an old rivendell reader about what bikes will be like in 2010....

Well, 2010. that's only eight years away. I think 99% will be aluminum and made in the Orient. The traditional spoked wheel will have been almost completely replaced by odd spoke patterns that go way out of true if a spoke should break. I think the MTB will have had its day. I think that people are at last beginning to realize that it is not ideal for the use most people put it to. I'm sure that some marketing whiz will come up with some equally inappropriate bike. I hope that the recent fad for suspension is gone and I the think that it will be.

...so what do you guys think bikes will be like in 10 years time ?
will crabon fibre have come and gone ?

personally, i think as gas prices go up , the us economy declines and the "armstrong effect" dissipates there is going to be a resurgence in metal framed, non-racing oriented, utilitarian cycling....external derailers may finally be eclipsed by internal hub gears....
and that little motor cancellara used will become widely available to us joe 6 packs and sally wine boxes :)

[GuyGadois]

Ditto, he is so wrong. I just bought a suspension MTB retiring my rigid and it is killer. He should stick to making bikes and stop predicting May 21st's (http://www.ebiblefellowship.com/may21/).

[Lifelover]

I assume it was said in jest and/or taking out of context. It's hard to believe he is that stupid.

[dd74]

For the average rider/commuter:

1) Some sort of auto transmission-type drivetrain will evolve.
2) Frames/bikes will get no lighter than they already are. Because they will be too difficult for the common rider to handle, and be too uncomfortable.
3) Full two-wheel shock-type suspensions will evolve.
4) Bikes will be more portable, i.e., folding.
5) Disc brakes will eclipse caliper, again for the common cyclist.
6) Some sort of run-flat tire will evolve, if there isn't one already for bicycles.

I say all this because fuel prices will never go down to much less than what is barely tolerable to the average household, giving the bicycle more of a foothold in commuting. Plus, in cities like L.A., where plans to expand the bike lanes over 1,600 miles, will make it difficult for many to not be tempted to commute on two wheels. That is if they can do it in the easiest way possible. A self-shifting drivetrain with brakes that are touted to be as effective as those on an automobile, will bring in a ton of revenue to a bicycle company who also is aware of change within the traffic infrastructure of any of the larger cities in the U.S., and the economic benefits of cycling.

London serves as the perfect example of these changes.

As far as race bikes go, I think electronic shifting will be ubiquitous.

Steel will never replace carbon. The margin is just not there.

[d_man16]

Generator hubs for lights on commuter bikes as LED's get better and cheaper.

like the 2.8 and beer cans of the begone years manufacturing will take a step back on the lite carbon and focus on ride quality

tapered headsets

a meaningful tax credit for commuters, enticing many more to use two wheels

15mm axle on mtbs

10 speed will be replaced by more reliable/durable 9 speed (mtb)

[Bob Ross]

a meaningful tax credit for commuters, enticing many more to use two wheels

"From your lips to god's ears!"

[Ahneida Ride]

I want a tax credit for riding my Pogo stick to work.
More BIG BROTHER intervention. :crap:

Big Brother already diluted the "dollar" fed reserve note so much that
many can no longer afford fuel and food.

[Lifelover]

Generator hubs for lights on commuter bikes as LED's get better and cheaper.



I think that as LED's and batteries get more efficient generator hubs become even more a thing of the past.

...
like the 2.8 and beer cans of the begone years manufacturing will take a step back on the lite carbon and focus on ride quality



Ture dat! What is going on with CF (thinner, fatter and lighter) is completely analogous with Cdale and Aluminum in general. The craze will settle and level heads will prevail until CF is replaced with something new.


a meaningful tax credit for commuters, enticing many more to use two wheels



I have always assumed one of the biggest hurdles to this is verification. How does the gov't verify I'm really commuting via bike? If the credit was big enough I would drive the 18 miles, park 1/2 a mile form work and roll in on my bike.

Internal gearing and belts will be the biggest changes we see in the near future. The right combo could create a damn near maintenance free bike for daily city riding.


The problem with "evolution" of bikes is that there is not much middle ground to profit from.

Most of the world (kids and 3rd world) wants/needs very, very cheap but somewhat reliable bikes.

"Cyclist" want fast, light, pretty, pro.

Both of those are pretty well covered and there is very little income potential in between.

[1happygirl]

Wow! I would really like to have (or at least try a Velomobile). One guy I saw did HHH (Hotter than Hell Hundred) last year in one. In August no less! I would like to have the finances and space to have a lot of different cool bicycles and live in a place I felt safe riding them.
These are cool made off of a kayak:
http://velomobiles.ca/Borealis.html

and blue velo. Seems a lot of velomobiles are made in Canada. hmmmm.

[DogpawSlim]

...so what do you guys think bikes will be like in 10 years time ?
will crabon fibre have come and gone ?


In 10 years, I'll just be happy that the world didn't end in 2012. I don't care if I'm riding unicycles. :banana:

[victoryfactory]

The derailleur will become obsolete, it's just too hard to spell.

Belt drive

all hub based E-shifting

Wheels with integrated, solid no flat tires

The only metal bikes will be from retro craftsmen.

Tiny motors hidden in the seat tube, wait a minute that's been done.

If I'm right I will personally bring back this thread and beat you all over
the head with it, If I'm wrong I won't bring it up

VF

[rugbysecondrow]

I have always assumed one of the biggest hurdles to this is verification. How does the gov't verify I'm really commuting via bike? If the credit was big enough I would drive the 18 miles, park 1/2 a mile form work and roll in on my bike.
n.

There might not be a Gov subsidy, I agree with Ray that it is ridiculous, but I have seen more and more employers offer benefits for those commuting via bike. Where I work, they offer an indoor parking spot in addition to a monthly subsidy that is meant to compensate for the cost of tires, chains gear etc. I think it is 15-20 bucks a month. Not much, but a step in the right direction.

[biker72]

Let gasoline prices exceed $4.00 per gallon here in Texas and you will see many more entry level bicycles and motorcycle/scooters on the road.

The full sized SUV market will collapse.

Back in 2008 when the gas prices got so high, the local bike shops did a booming business. The GM SUV plant in Arlington TX had a huge cutback in production.

[bikemoore]

I don't think gas prices really make any difference over the long term. Sure, if there is a sudden shock in gas prices, some people start thinking that they would like a smaller more economical car...but its temporary. People just adjust to the new higher gas prices and realize that they still want the big rig. They might opt for a slightly smaller V8 instead of the huge V10, but that's about the extent of it.

I'm currently living in Germany where gas prices are well over $8.00/gal, but the roads are still clogged with big Beemers going 100+ mph. People just get used to it, make adjustments elsewhere in their budgets and go on with their lives.

That said, I think the future of bikes lies with some sort of belt-driven internally geared rear hub that senses torque and cadence (power) and automatically shifts....or you can override it manually....or you can set the shift points for leisure or performance.

[uno-speedo]

I'm currently living in Germany where gas prices are well over $8.00/gal, but the roads are still clogged with big Beemers going 100+ mph. People just get used to it, make adjustments elsewhere in their budgets and go on with their lives.

Shorter distances help plus the more abundant public transport systems.

[johnnymossville]

automatic transmission

electric/hybrid bicycles will become more popular as a commuting option and as the technology get's lighter/more efficient. I could see them having more storage space as well, for taking shopping.

[Kirk Pacenti]

in 1998 or 99, while working at Match Bicycle Co., I predicted that in 10 years time all frames would be injection molded.

We are not quite there yet, but it will only be a matter of time before injection molded composite materials / technology is up to the task. Not saying this is good or bad, just a logical way to remove most if not all labor from frame production.

Cheers,
KP

[mschol17]

Why is it so offensive for the government to subsidize commuting by bike? They heavily subsidize cars through the highway system, tax code, foreign policy...

[oldpotatoe]

Shorter distances help plus the more abundant public transport systems.

People won't take to bikes and such until gas is scarce. High prices don't do, as you see in Europe and Japan.

As for Gov't paying people to ride a bike, it's not offensive, it just isn't going to happen. They gonna pay for anybody NOT driving a car? Walking? Bus and train?

First look at the the car, energy industry and see who pays what to bribe our members in government and then how much alternative transportation organizations pay for lobbying efforts(almost nothing)..isn't going to happen.

[SamIAm]

Why is it so offensive for the government to subsidize commuting by bike? They heavily subsidize cars through the highway system, tax code, foreign policy...

It's time for the government to get smaller, not bigger. If subsidizing commuting by bicycle achieves the desired effect and pulls more cars off the road, then you or others would be asking for subsidies for car manufacturers, oil companies, DOT workers etc. Government cannot solve all problems. If you want to commute by bike, your subsidy is better health (if you don't get run over) and lower fuel costs. Why isn't that good enough?

Let the free market work.

[rugbysecondrow]

It's time for the government to get smaller, not bigger. If subsidizing commuting by bicycle achieves the desired effect and pulls more cars off the road, then you or others would be asking for subsidies for car manufacturers, oil companies, DOT workers etc. Government cannot solve all problems. If you want to commute by bike, your subsidy is better health (if you don't get run over) and lower fuel costs. Why isn't that good enough?

Let the free market work.

Agreed. In addition, employers have an interest as well, let them offer the subsidy if it is desirable. Even municipal or state initiatives would be better than federal ones. The assumption that the Feds should jump into every issue is ridiculous and short sighted.

[Ahneida Ride]

Why is it so offensive for the government to subsidize commuting by bike? They heavily subsidize cars through the highway system, tax code, foreign policy...

You are 100% correct.

However any policy will have to be managed. I for one want less of the
BIG BROTHER. A Big Brother who have can't even balance their check
book.

The chairman of the Dallas fed estimated (4 years ago) the real debt
at over 100 Trillion. This does not include state or local debt.

What is 100 Trillion frns / 100 million American Families ?
I think that is 1 Million in debt per American Family.


If BIG BROTHER can ever clean up it's act and stop diluting me alive
(stop the frn boarding) perhaps I'd perhaps welcome more of the distilled
wisdom of our rulers.

If the frn (fed reserve irredeemable note) boarding does
not halt, we will all be riding bikes anyway. Only our rulers will have the
affluence to afford motorized transportation.

[Grant McLean]

so i found this interesting quote from mike (mariposa) barry from 2002 in an old rivendell reader about what bikes will be like in 2010....

..."Well, 2010. that's only eight years away. I think 99% will be aluminum and made in the Orient. The traditional spoked wheel will have been almost completely replaced by odd spoke patterns that go way out of true if a spoke should break. I think the MTB will have had its day. I think that people are at last beginning to realize that it is not ideal for the use most people put it to. I'm sure that some marketing whiz will come up with some equally inappropriate bike. I hope that the recent fad for suspension is gone and I the think that it will be. "...


I think mike predicted pretty well.

Despite the personal lens that some people might view how Mike
answered the question, he is speaking of the "market" and the
the reality of the north american cycling market is:

1) Most bikes are aluminum and made in the orient.
the vast majorty of bike shops don't sell a large volume of carbon road bikes,
they sell a ton of hybrids, hardtails, city bikes, and road bikes under $1500,
and those are Taiwan and Chinese made Aluminum.

2) Low spoked pattern, non traditional 32 spokes wheels have been widely
adopted at OEM, finding a stock road bike on the floor of a bikeshop that
costs more than $1000 with 32 spoke wheels is quite rare.

3) MTB sales have dropped steadily since 2000. Urban city hybrids and
even "fixies" have replaced the basic 'hardtail' mountain bike as a staple
of the average bikeshop sales. Youth in the 14-21 age range use to buy
(or their parents bought them) a mountain bike. That market has been
cut at least in half. Higher end mountain bike sale are sluggish. Ask
Gary Fisher and Race Face how that's going... it's going bad.

-g

[dancinkozmo]

in 1998 or 99, while working at Match Bicycle Co., I predicted that in 10 years time all frames would be injection molded.

We are not quite there yet, but it will only be a matter of time before injection molded composite materials / technology is up to the task. Not saying this is good or bad, just a logical way to remove most if not all labor from frame production.

Cheers,
KP

....this sounds likely, tooling will probably be very expensive...

[michael white]

Agreed. In addition, employers have an interest as well, let them offer the subsidy if it is desirable. Even municipal or state initiatives would be better than federal ones. The assumption that the Feds should jump into every issue is ridiculous and short sighted.

I agree in principal with the small govt. sentiment. I can't help notice, however, that countries with great cycling infrastructure (think North European) tend to have higher tax rates. Brit tourists marvel at cycling in the Netherlands just like we do. Leaving it up to the consumer tends to result in car congestion, and when carried to the sorts of extremes that we do in the US, you get a sort of Mad Max effect, resulting in Escalades for fearful suburban moms and rappers, and dead cyclists in the gutter. Are we better off leaving infrastructure up to the free market? No, we're not. Take my city, for instance. It's lovely in its old, govt.-protected antebellum pockets. Most of it, unfortunately, was left to free market development, and is so butt strip-mall ugly it's not worth nuking. Is it bike friendly? Don't make me laugh. But at least tourists from Charlotte and Atlanta think it's nice!

[rugbysecondrow]

I agree in principal with the small govt. sentiment. I can't help notice, however, that countries with great cycling infrastructure (think North European) tend to have higher tax rates. Brit tourists marvel at cycling in the Netherlands just like we do. Leaving it up to the consumer tends to result in car congestion, and when carried to the sorts of extremes that we do in the US, you get a sort of Mad Max effect, resulting in Escalades for fearful suburban moms and rappers, and dead cyclists in the gutter. Are we better off leaving infrastructure up to the free market? No, we're not. Take my city, for instance. It's lovely in its old, govt.-protected antebellum pockets. Most of it, unfortunately, was left to free market development, and is so butt strip-mall ugly it's not worth nuking. Is it bike friendly? Don't make me laugh. But at least tourists from Charlotte and Atlanta think it's nice!

My point is more that local government is, by design, best equipped to handle issues that are local in nature and have more localized solutions. In your example, a Municipal or State solution will have a greater targeted benefit than say a Federal initiative. Take NYC, Wilmington, Denver, Sioux Falls or any other local area, they will have different needs and require a more tailored solution. The Feds should be for last resort options, not the first place to look. I also think most other issues would be better handled locally as well, but that is a different conversation.

My point is not hands off but looking to see what the appropriate hands are and see how/if they can provide benefit.

Let me add that comparing the USA to any European country regarding these issues is not apt. The USA is larger than every single European Nation, it is a better comparison to contrast New York State or North Carolina to a European Country. The small size of these countries allows for solutions to be more specific. Can you imagine a single European policy that would be presumed to work successfully across all European countries?

[michael white]

I know, I was just pointing out that I live in a really nice place, once the pride and joy of the entire east coast. Thru most of the past century the city council has been run by local conservatives with pro-developer biases who ravaged the area, and the result is the epitome of American ugly, with no place for kids to walk, much less ride their bike. When you start arguing the benefits of smaller government in a generally conservative state, I can show you what that looks like--and frankly it's a place where you will insist on an electric gate in front of your house, and a big wall around the projects.

[rugbysecondrow]

I know, I was just pointing out that I live in a really nice place, once the pride and joy of the entire east coast. Thru most of the past century the city council has been run by local conservatives with pro-developer biases who ravaged the area, and the result is the epitome of American ugly, with no place for kids to walk, much less ride their bike. When you start arguing the benefits of smaller government in a generally conservative state, I can show you what that looks like--and frankly it's a place where you will insist on an electric gate in front of your house, and a big wall around the projects.


Unfortunately quite a few towns and cities have had to deal with unmanaged growth, and unsightly growth which you describe, conservative and liberal alike.

My background is in Urban Planning, and I have worked with quite a few different local governments. Some conservative who are able to change, some liberal who are incapable of change, and everything in between. I have worked with progressive conservatives and liberals who are reasonable when it comes to solutions. There is really no easy answer, but there are answers. I would still submit that a Federal solution would be less effective that one that would be generated locally.

Like I said, no easy solutions.

[michael white]

ps: I'm all for injection molded bikes, although I only have one. But I think I'll continue to buy lugged frames out of habit.

[Grant McLean]

Unfortunately quite a few towns and cities have had to deal with unmanaged growth, and unsightly growth at that which you describe, conservative and liberal alike.

My background is in Urban Planning, and I have worked with quite a few different local governments. Some conservative who are able to change, some liberal who are incapable of change, and everything in between. I have worked with progressive conservatives and liberals who are reasonable when it comes to solutions. There is really no easy answer, but there are answers. I would still submit that a Federal solution would be less effective that one that would be generated locally.

Like I said, no easy solutions.

Lewis Mumford is spinning in his grave, no doubt.

-g

[rwsaunders]

I think mike predicted pretty well.

Despite the personal lens that some people might view how Mike
answered the question, he is speaking of the "market" and the
the reality of the north american cycling market is:

1) Most bikes are aluminum and made in the orient.
the vast majorty of bike shops don't sell a large volume of carbon road bikes,
they sell a ton of hybrids, hardtails, city bikes, and road bikes under $1500,
and those are Taiwan and Chinese made Aluminum.

2) Low spoked pattern, non traditional 32 spokes wheels have been widely
adopted at OEM, finding a stock road bike on the floor of a bikeshop that
costs more than $1000 with 32 spoke wheels is quite rare.

3) MTB sales have dropped steadily since 2000. Urban city hybrids and
even "fixies" have replaced the basic 'hardtail' mountain bike as a staple
of the average bikeshop sales. Youth in the 14-21 age range use to buy
(or their parents bought them) a mountain bike. That market has been
cut at least in half. Higher end mountain bike sale are sluggish. Ask
Gary Fisher and Race Face how that's going... it's going bad.

-g


I agree with Grant's comments and Mike's predictions...our view of the bike is in a myopic sort of way here on this or any other bike forum...take a venture to WalMart and the other major bike retailers and AL leads the charge. I always ask our LBS what is selling and they continue to mention pathway/hybrid bikes.

Mike Barry is a gent who is worth listening to on a variety of subjects, and by no means is he stupid.

http://bicyclespecialties.blogspot.com

[Lifelover]

... you get a sort of Mad Max effect, resulting in Escalades for fearful suburban moms and rappers, and dead cyclists in the gutter. Are we better off leaving infrastructure up to the free market? ...


Child Please! Do you work in the media! When was the last time you saw a dead cyclist in the gutter?

How can anyone address problems when they are so over hyped?

[Lifelover]

Y.... Only our rulers will have the
affluence to afford motorized transportation.


Rulers and retailers selling handler bar tape for $75+

[michael white]

Child Please! Do you work in the media! When was the last time you saw a dead cyclist in the gutter?

How can anyone address problems when they are so over hyped?

Dear Lifelover! I am not a child. I am a veteran with a PhD who most likely bench presses more than everyone in your extended family, and would have zero compunction or hesitation as far as coming to teach you how to speak respectfully to grownups, ok?


Here are a few recent cycling deaths in my bucolic community. You can look up "bucolic" in your dictionary.
http://www.sirbikesalot.com/incident_db.php

[firerescuefin]

Dear Lifelover! I am not a child. I am a veteran with a PhD who most likely bench presses more than everyone in your extended family, and would have zero compunction or hesitation as far as coming to teach you how to speak respectfully to grownups, ok?


Here are a few recent cycling deaths in my bucolic community. You can look up "bucolic" in your dictionary.
http://www.sirbikesalot.com/incident_db.php


For the self describe "poet"/"veteran"/"phd"....you are probably among the most arrogant/condescending/bullying members on this board. You have proven yourelf incapable of offering any input remotely political without being a leftist tool...now you have moved onto "how much you bench" and "threatening"......clearly a renaissance man. Feel free to stop by my house anytime.

[1happygirl]

I WAS enjoying the thread

[Lifelover]

Dear Lifelover! I am not a child. I am a veteran with a PhD who most likely bench presses more than everyone in your extended family, and would have zero compunction or hesitation as far as coming to teach you how to speak respectfully to grownups, ok?


Here are a few recent cycling deaths in my bucolic community. You can look up "bucolic" in your dictionary.
http://www.sirbikesalot.com/incident_db.php

That does it, I'm calling Charles Atlas!
http://thebsreport.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/charles.jpg?w=500&h=723


Are alls those dead cyclist still laying in gutters?


Also, by definition (there are often more than one per word) you are a child in more ways than one.

[michael white]

For the self describe "poet"/"veteran"/"phd"....you are probably among the most arrogant/condescending/bullying members on this board. You have proven yourelf incapable of offering any input remotely political without being a leftist tool...now you have moved onto "how much you bench" and "bullying"......clearly a renaissance man. Feel free to stop by my house anytime.



Funny thing, how the finger pointers NEVER use real names on forums. Maybe a bit short in the manly quotient. . .

Time for the moderators, I guess.

[firerescuefin]

Funny thing, how the finger pointers NEVER use real names on forums. Maybe a bit short in the manly quotient. . .

Time for the moderators, I guess.

Geoffrey Finley big guy...in the phone book...look it up. Perhaps you can read poetry to me. Your game is tired.

[michael white]

nice to meet you, Geoffrey! you can call me Mike.

[rugbysecondrow]

I got my ruler ready, OK fellas, whip'm out. We will settle this one...and NO FLUFFING!

[biker72]

I WAS enjoying the thread

Me too.

[firerescuefin]

Other forum members.....not my intention to derail this thread :crap: . I apologize. Mods, please delete mine and related post to get this back on track

[Dlevy05]

Okay, I'll do my part.

For one, the afformentioned 'free market' is a moot point, as the government has had their hands in the business for a while: subsidies of car manufacturers, the investment in our roads, even the bailout of the american auto industry!

BUT, all of this is neither here nor there.

I was surprised to see a few disagreements with the initial predictions, and I would most definitely agree that they were relatively close to what we're seeing today.

I don't know if everyone expected carbon to emerge as SUCH a dominant force in the market, especially over some very great/interesting metals like titanium, scandium, magnesium, etc. I certainly didn't...

Although, the downfall of the MTB, I hope is just a slump. The mountain bike enables one to embrace a side of nature through the sport of cycling that just isn't possible on more common road bikes, fixies, and commuters (although cross bikes arguably can get you there). Maybe we'll see a hybrid that's actually capable off road, and a good climber at that?

As far as what the future holds, I'd predict that carbon, or an enhanced version of the carbon we see today will dominate the marketplace. Additionally, I think we'll see a narrower assortment of metals to work with, and that maybe scandium could dominate the lower market segment. Shocks are here to stay. As electromagnetic technology enhances, as well as the advent of suspension with lubrication varying in viscosity, I would hope that bicycle suspension will become more reliable and usable.

I'll end with mentioning that I'd love to see bicycles take over many of the roles cars hold. For instance, if the railway/subway companies could better cater to cyclists, the possibility of feasible long distance travel would become a greater reality for us all... possibly saving the railroad companies, too...

[michael white]

I have an old appreciation for aluminum as a material. When I've owned them or ridden them, what I usually find is that its reputation for harsh riding is not really deserved (leading us to carbon tailed alloy bikes etc.). It would be cool if Scandium made a comeback. But someone's still gotta weld the stuff. I agree with Mr. Pacenti that it's the price of labor that will have the last word, and I bet we'll be seeing molded bikes in Walmart before long . . .

[Grant McLean]

For the self describe "poet"/"veteran"/"phd"....you are probably among the most arrogant/condescending/bullying members on this board. You have proven yourelf incapable of offering any input remotely political without being a leftist tool...now you have moved onto "how much you bench" and "threatening"......clearly a renaissance man. Feel free to stop by my house anytime.


Thanks for the reminder why i don't post here much anymore.

Have a look in the mirror if you'd like a nice picture of how you
described Michael, (who I think is a great guy with lots to contribute)
It is a shame that politics as practiced here is so divisive.

Anyway, i'll let y'all get back to fixing the gov't with your internet postings.

-g

[Fixed]

Thanks for the reminder why i don't post here much anymore.

Have a look in the mirror if you'd like a nice picture of how you
described Michael, (who I think is a great guy with lots to contribute)
It is a shame that politics as practiced here is so divisive.

Anyway, i'll let y'all get back to fixing the gov't with your internet postings.

-g
grant is one of the nicest and smartest guys around .our great loss not having his input on lots of subjects .. i miss your post very much
cheers

[firerescuefin]

Hi Grant,

I PM'd you. My posting style/history is public..as well as is Michaels. I'll leave it at that. I think the NPR topic is a good example of both.

The future of bikes...I know I'll own a couple...and Jack Brunk 20.

[Germany_chris]

Not really...they drive 100-140mph even going to the other end of the country..and people really don't take public transpo unless it's to the airport...honestly people just drive like Americans do but faster and pay $8.00 a gallon.

Shorter distances help plus the more abundant public transport systems.

[TMB]

...........

[victoryfactory]

Nothing that a 70 degree sunny weekend won't cure.
Can I get a witness?

VF

[Pete Serotta]

For a guy that doesn't post much you sure do post a lot!? Another poster that threatens to leave but never does.

Why not go old school and start a thread announcing your departure.


There is no value nor courtesy to the above posts..... Please stop, Grant is a value to the forum. PETE

[Pete Serotta]

Based on results i read in WSJ yesterday and in NY Times today there is lots to be fixed in and by the government. There is no single fix or single failure. We as a society need to start working as a "team" to certain ends that make life happier and fairer.

The USA 2012 president candidate selection process is already starting to see far right and far left views and so far they talk right past each other

Grant, you are a value to any forums you posts on and also a contributor.

You have taught me much,,,,especially moderation and friendship. THe vast majority of folks here have the same lust for cycling fairness, and friendship.

Sorry we upset you. PETE



Thanks for the reminder why i don't post here much anymore.

Have a look in the mirror if you'd like a nice picture of how you
described Michael, (who I think is a great guy with lots to contribute)
It is a shame that politics as practiced here is so divisive.

Anyway, i'll let y'all get back to fixing the gov't with your internet postings.

-g

[Pete Serotta]

I got it and have brought to NC!!!! Come ride my bike.....and bring some bar wrap. :bike:


I want a tax credit for riding my Pogo stick to work.
More BIG BROTHER intervention. :crap:

Big Brother already diluted the "dollar" fed reserve note so much that
many can no longer afford fuel and food.

[Grant McLean]

For a guy that doesn't post much you sure do post a lot!? Another poster that threatens to leave but never does.

Why not go old school and start a thread announcing your departure.

Thanks for making my point better than I ever could.

-g

[Germany_chris]

Really GENTLEMEN!!

This is a discussion about bikes and the future!!

In the end the country has succeeded with both left and right in power. The politicians matter very little the people do.

It's time to stop the d**k is bigger than yours no matter who started it!

IGH vs Derailleur
Belt Vs Chain
Crabon vs Metal
City vs Road vs Mountain

my vote goes to IGH Belt and relaxed road..

http://www.sjscycles.co.uk/11-speed-versa-vrs11-sti-levers-for-internal-gear-hubs-prod25221/?src=froogleus&currency=usd

[AngryScientist]

my thinking is that there will be indeed more electric motor assisted bikes in the future. if the reliability goes up and the price goes down, perhaps more folks would think about taking a hybrid typed bike to work and to do errands with, especially if a little motor could give them a slight boost to help after a long day in the office.

[rounder]

Grant's posts are always informative and level headed. Glad that he takes the time to post here.

[rounder]

My next door neighbor has a 3 mile commute and rides his bike there every day. Mine is 75 miles and would not ride there even with electric. But, if my commute were 15 miles or less, I would seriously consider commuting daily by bike. I wouldn't care whether shifting was electric or manual.

[sonatageek]

Well I bet they will look pretty much like the bikes of today. The change in appearance brought about by carbon fiber (more fluid than traditional tubing) will certainly be around, but the composition of the fiber and resin will have properties that are not achievable today.

That said, there will still be plenty of bikes made from good old steel and aluminum tubes, welded together and looking pretty much the way bikes have looked for over a 100 years. I am always a bit surprised to see pictures of the safety bikes from the late 19th century with their uncanny resemblance to the average department store bike.

Finally, Walmart will still be selling crappy full suspension mountain bikes, but instead of aluminum main frames they will be carbon fiber and they will still weigh about 40 pounds. :rolleyes:

[fiamme red]

In NYC, many of the cheap department store bikes ridden by restaurant deliverymen have been replaced by electric-assisted ones with dual disc brakes. As prices of electric bikes and electric conversions fall, I expect this trend to continue, and I think it will extend to commuters too.

[vsefiream]

I look back to when I used to work in a bike shop and rode a lot. Steel was king then, Cannondales cracked often and Ti was uber exotic. Headsets were threaded and 8 speed STI was new and expensive.
Now aluminum is the standard, steel is nearly forgotten and carbon is beautiful, strong and getting more affordable. STI is the norm, carbon one peice handlebar/stems are available and frames are very artistic in form.
I also think we may just see an injection molded frame maybe even one that's molded in four pieces and epoxied together. Belt drive would be great with some sort of automatic CV gears in the hub not unlike cars that use CVT's.
Honestly I think a lot of thoughts in this thread will come to be but who knows which ones will thrive.
Now on the government front. I am a little fed up!! Don't look to subsidies, look to be taxed!! They started here and God knows that when a politician sees a possible revenue source, they latch on like a hungry dog. Case in point:http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/lawmaker-withdraws-bike-license-bill/
Luckily it was shot down before I arrived home to pick up my phone and voice my opinion. I don't think this will be the last we see on this subject. That's my future prediction

[Kirk Pacenti]

....this sounds likely, tooling will probably be very expensive...

Yes, the tooling would be very expensive... but still much less expensive than paying employees over the long-term. BMC is leading the way with their new, fully automated factory in Switzerland.

Cheers,
KP