Egypt at ground level--worthwhile read

[Steve in SLO]

This was forwarded to me from someone I know who was to travel to Egypt next week. It was written by their tour guide and gives insights you won't see on CNN. Posting it here is not meant to be political, rather, humanistic.
Feel lucky, all.

Dear friends:
i am writing this email while we have no internet connection and it is more
like i am trying to record the events than writing an email,it is 2.00 am
Sunday 30 jan ,36 hours after cell phone service was cut as well as
internet, 24 hours after the robbery of all the big shops and night clubs in
my neighborhood ,and as the police vanished into thick air since last night
we have to protect ourselves and our families, it was devastating to see the
building next to the museum on fire with the fear that the fire would reach
the museum , I tried to get dressed but my wife tears which got my kids into
tears stopped from going out as I wanted to do something , an hour later
there was a human shield around the museum ,i am standing in the street
outside where i live ,i am holding my weapon of mass destruction ,a wooden
stick (my kids room curtain holder)i am finding this ironic , just 3 days
ago i was an Egyptologist/tour manager respected by my groups living in a
beautiful country which they were envying me for it, today i almost have no
government and certainly no police forces and all i am seeing on the tv
screen are news about prisoners breaking out of prison and hungry people who
lived in those unfinished homes near where i live ,both are attacking all my
friends and family homes, with no cell service for 36 hours and no internet
service for more than 48 hours, that is a great way to spread rumors ,so for
3 hours outside home all i am hearing are rumors and screams that they are
coming ,who? What? I do not know ,all i am hearing are rumors about how
ruthless they are, they rob every thing ,they rape women ,they sound like
Genkhiz Khan .any way i have just seen my first gun battle which lasted
about 10 minutes between an armored army car and someone else ,i have seen
all army personnel jump out of their car to take it as a cover but someone
standing next to me starting screaming that they are all dead and suddenly
came from the dark 5 civilians carrying machine guns ...... Can u imagine my
feelings , i stood there and did not run back like many did, but not to
think
that i am a hero i was standing at the back of the crowds until it was
clear that they were undercover police officers helping the army , any way
by 5.00 am i was convinced that if all rumors were true ,that we are the
last alive 30 men in Cairo and maybe in Egypt as every one else is dead .??
Thank God the morning came and the curfew was lifted so i went to bed to get
up and watch tv all day ,if i believe Aljazeera then i will go crazy ,bbc
and alarabia are more neutral while Egyptian state tv is just beginning to
talk about what is really happening. Then came the footage of the museum ,
and that was the moment I broke down in tears , I have tried to hold my
tears for my wife and kids , but seeing tut ankh amun pieces smashed and 13
cases partially destroyed , it was too much , and then the news about
cutting the scenes from sakkara and luxor tombs , my feelings was I must
flee the country but where to go?? what about my mom and sister??? any way I
calmed myself down and began another night guarding my neighborhood
, I am beginning to know all my neighbors , it is real social networking not
face book, another night of rumors about how they are coming and they shoot
randomly and some one screaming that we should catch them , my next door
neighbor said what about the randomly factor?????........
3ed day of being at home and I am going crazy but I am beginning to look
into my computer and trying to write things and organize photos just not to
let my mind go crazy , just tried to buy few essentials and it was ok but
shelves at shops are beginning to look empty and every one in Egypt is
convinced that all the rumors and shooting guns are the work of the police
who wanted to terrorize the people .another night with capturing 3 escaping
prisoners and getting a good rumor about how an army officer came running at
the top of our street screaming for our help as they have been attacked by
100 prisoners who have got machine guns , I said great so we should get
ready to die as we have no way of fighting back, it is becoming silly but it
is also becoming like the feeling of a summer camp as we get together around
a fire in the middle of the street and tell stories and jokes, then you are
getting some gun fires and every now and then you get a tank or an armored
car passing in the street and that was the only way by showing it to my kids
so that they feel secure as they hear all this gunfire,
4th day and night, I called my friends in luxor and sakkara and they told me
no damage happened ,the president just finished a speech about how he is
going to do some changes and now I am terrified of the idea that this will
give a chance for his supporters to come out and crush the protestors, am I
ever going to work again ?how long can I survive?? no banks , very little
fuel as I stood for 1,5 hours in a line at a gas station and could not get
gas then got home in about 1,5 hours as the curfew started, I am trying not
to think about the future as I try to pass night to day and then day to
night...............
5th day and the call for blood donation got me and my wife out to donate
blood and suddenly the internet service came.....
what every body feared is happening , some people which a lot of people are
convinced are undercover police are claiming to be the supporters of
president Mubarak and beating the hell out of the protestors and we are all
afraid that this could be the end of Egypt , civil war............... I do
not know , I can not write any more , tomorrow is another day
.................
thank you all for your concern and support
Amro

[akelman]

I initially read the signature line as "Atmo". Something is wrong with me.

[vqdriver]

Dude that's heavy

[dd74]

The whole region will either change over peacefully, or blow apart. So far, it looks like the ladder as Mubarak isn't about to leave, even as Obama demands it. When the overthrow does finally happen and the ensuing vacuum is filled by the Islamic Brotherhood, the game will be over. Now the same sort of uprising as in Egypt is going on in Yemen. If I were Israel, I'd be locking and loading right about now.

[Rueda Tropical]

The more peaceful the transition is the less likely extremists will gain the upper hand. The US has a lot of influence with the armed forces and at the beginning of the week the armed forces had credibility and the support of the crowds. All the peoples wrath was reserved for Mubarak and his security forces. The army could have pushed out Mubarak and managed a transition allowing all elements a democratic voice. Under those circumstances it's unlikely the Muslim Brotherhood would have been more then a strong minority party in a future government and the populace would not be looking to violent extremists as allies in the fight against a well armed and brutal goverment.

If the army loses the street by aiding and abetting Mubarak's thugs then all bets are off. Egypt could descend into bloody chaos. The fact that journalists are being detained and attacked so there are no witnesses to what comes next is ominous.

[ergott]

A little fact check on the museum.

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/01/human-shield-of-civilians-protects-egypts-museums/

Crazy situation over there.

[Louis]

The whole region will either change over peacefully, or blow apart.

Is there a despot out there who has not said “Après moi, le déluge” to justify his continued presence to his American sponsors? It's a question of short-term vs long-term stability. Eventually the pot will boil over.

It's unlikely that we'll ever get Jeffersonian Democracy in Egypt, but in the 21st century no country should have to endure 30 years of one guy (who then prepares to install his son) and his corrupt regime if they don't want him, regardless of how "stable" things might appear from here.

Louis

[93legendti]

http://news.yahoo.com/egypts-elbaradei-liberals-decimated-vote-213503368.html
10 months later...

[Louis]

http://news.yahoo.com/egypts-elbaradei-liberals-decimated-vote-213503368.html
10 months later...

Democracy at work. Don't you hate it when all those fundamentalists get together and have a party?

[WickedWheels]

Democracy at work. Don't you hate it when all those fundamentalists get together and have a party?

And there goes Egypt, too.

I wonder how long it will be until the fundamentalists outnumber the rest of us. When will I read this about the Netherlands, France, England?

[93legendti]

And there goes Egypt, too.

I wonder how long it will be until the fundamentalists outnumber the rest of us. When will I read this about the Netherlands, France, England?
As I predicted. This wasn't democracy at work. It was Iran spreading it's influence. We did Iran's bidding. :crap: Libya is next.
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=883949&postcount=12
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=890486&postcount=14
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=884084&postcount=38

[ultraman6970]

This is bad...

http://news.yahoo.com/egypts-elbaradei-liberals-decimated-vote-213503368.html
10 months later...

[tiretrax]

As I predicted. This wasn't democracy at work. It was Iran spreading it's influence. We did Iran's bidding. :crap: Libya is next.
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=883949&postcount=12
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=890486&postcount=14
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=884084&postcount=38
Tunisia already went that way. I wonder how Iran is woven in to the Syrian opposition. They've taken over Lebanon and Palestine. The future of that area is scary.

[JMerring]

democracy can be a real drag, huh?

[thwart]

He predicted the Muslim Brotherhood will prefer to form an alliance with the liberals rather than the (hard-line) Salafis to get a majority in parliament. The liberal Egyptian Bloc — which came in third with 13.4 percent of the votes — could counterbalance hard-line elements.

Nevertheless, ElBaradei agreed the first elections since Mubarak's fall were free and fair and said the massive turnout of about 60 percent lent it legitimacy.

If you think the Arab Spring is about fundamentalists in Iran exerting their influence over the region, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Paranoia is not good for the soul.

[akelman]

[Paranoia is not good for the soul.

Word. Sometimes it's not about us.

[Louis]

It was Iran spreading it's influence. We did Iran's bidding. :crap:

Heck, come to think of it, we did Iran's bidding when it come to Irak too.

[JMerring]

Heck, come to think of it, we did Iran's bidding when it come to Irak too.

bingo

[93legendti]

He predicted the Muslim Brotherhood will prefer to form an alliance with the liberals rather than the (hard-line) Salafis to get a majority in parliament. The liberal Egyptian Bloc — which came in third with 13.4 percent of the votes — could counterbalance hard-line elements.

Nevertheless, ElBaradei agreed the first elections since Mubarak's fall were free and fair and said the massive turnout of about 60 percent lent it legitimacy.

If you think the Arab Spring is about fundamentalists in Iran exerting their influence over the region, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Paranoia is not good for the soul.
nor is burying your head in the sand...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-12-04/israel-egypt-elections/51641978/1
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/iran-remains-at-the-heart-of-middle-eastern-instability-20111205-1ofdb.html
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/26/peter-goodspeed-the-arab-spring-has-allowed-iran-to-expand-its-sphere-of-influence/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jayshree-bajoria/iran-arab-spring_b_992121.html
it's a real "coincidence" that Iran has been immune from the toppling of it's leadership...particularly since Iran is the big winner of these "democracy" movements (and we are the big losers).

In many countries, "it increasingly looks like a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia," says Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Amid this uncertainty, questions remain about how the upheavals affect Iran's regional influence and what that will mean for U.S. efforts to persuade Iran to give up its controversial nuclear program. The downfall of pro-U.S. Arab regimes in the region, an emboldened Arab public angry at Israel and hostile to U.S. foreign policy, and growing assertiveness of Shiites could benefit Iran's standing in the region, and could blunt U.S. efforts to rally regional states against Iran's nuclear program, some experts worry.

I'm sure the Coptics are not loving "democracy".

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/17/egypt-coptic-christians-attacked_n_1099428.html

[zap]

Calling :) .

[Dekonick]

I would love to hear Smiley's view on this. Hope everything works out in the end.

Off to go for a run, then the gym... hate thinking about this stuff...

Later...

[93legendti]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/clinton-calls-russian-election-unfair-issues-new-warning-to-islamist-winners-in-egypt-vote/2011/12/06/gIQAZkyiYO_story.html

Clinton calls Russian election unfair, issues new warning to Islamist winners in Egypt vote

[93legendti]

http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=27550

Egypt: The Brotherhood’s predicament!

04/12/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed

[93legendti]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/world/middleeast/voting-in-egypt-shows-mandate-for-islamists.html?pagewanted=all

That victory came at the expense of the liberal parties and youth activists who set off the revolution, affirming their fears that they would be unable to compete with Islamists who emerged from the Mubarak years organized and with an established following. Poorly organized and internally divided, the liberal parties could not compete with Islamists disciplined by decades as the sole opposition to Mr. Mubarak. “We were washed out,” said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, one of the most politically active of the group.

http://www.npr.org/2011/12/04/143105385/new-election-results-show-islamists-leading-in-egypt

The liberal Egyptian Bloc came in behind the two Islamist lists with 13.4 percent of the votes. Another liberal list, the Wafd Party, received 7.1 percent, while the moderate Islamist Wasat or Centrist Party took 4.3 percent.

[Louis]

Adam, you have my vote as the forum's single-note "The Islamic Hordes are Coming" news aggregator.

Thanks for the update.

Louis

[93legendti]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/us-egypt-groups-idUSTRE7BS0PT20111229
Egypt police raid U.S.-backed pro-democracy groups

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptian prosecutors and police raided offices of 17 pro-democracy and human rights groups on Thursday - drawing criticism from the United States which hinted it could review its $1.3 billion in annual military aid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-provocation-in-egypt/2011/12/29/gIQAJEwxOP_story.html
A provocation in Egypt
By Editorial Board, Published: December 29
ON THURSDAY, Egypt’s military regime undertook an act of repression that even former strongman Hosni Mubarak never dared to try. Police and troops raided 17 nongovernmental organization offices involved in promoting democracy and human rights — including those of the Washington-based Freedom House and U.S.-funded International Republican Institute (IRI) and National Democratic Institute (NDI). According to statements by the American groups, police confiscated their equipment and documents, sealed their offices and provided no warrants.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/stomping-on-human-rights-in-egypt/2011/12/29/gIQAtySOPP_print.html

Stomping on human rights in Egypt
By David J. Kramer, Published: December 29
A months-long campaign against civil-society groups by Egypt’s military leadership came to a head Thursday when Egyptian security forces raided the Cairo offices of Freedom House and several other international and local nongovernmental organizations. These attacks were a major setback to the hopes that emerged this year with the revolution in Tahrir Square. If corrective measures are not taken, the attacks will severely damage Egypt’s long-term stability and prospects for a more democratic future.

[Pete Serotta]

THere is enough turmoil over there....lets leave it there.

We as a country should look at the east and its history for there has not ever been a single solution.

And I am not smart enough to know theirs and wished that we as the USA or EU had our own solutions...

WE in the US have a very poor 2011 for progress even here. :crap: :crap:

[93legendti]

How's ground level looking today?

[Louis]

Now we know.

Adam = Nakoula Basseley Nakoula (aka Sam Bacile) = Provocateurs who's self appointed mission is to tweak the rest of the world.

[PQJ]

It's hard to say from thousands of miles away, but judging by media reports, it looks like mitt. :eek:

[firerescuefin]

Now we know.

Adam = Nakoula Basseley Nakoula (aka Sam Bacile) = Provocateurs who's self appointed mission is to tweak the rest of the world.

Actually, I thought it was a pretty fair question....though this will probably turn into a race to the bottom.

[Louis]

Personally, I think the Forum needs to draw a red line at this sort of activity.

[Louis]

Actually, I thought it was a pretty fair question....though this will probably turn into a race to the bottom.

It's not a fair question when Adam waits, and waits, and waits until things flare up again to ask. If he cares that much about it, why was he not asking the question last week? He's picked this moment to ask because of what's going on, not to have an calm conversation about things. That's the act of a provocateur and not a responsible way to discuss things on a forum.

[BCS]

It's not a fair question when Adam waits, and waits, and waits until things flare up again to ask. If he cares that much about it, why was he not asking the question last week? He's picked this moment to ask because of what's going on, not to have an calm conversation about things. That's the act of a provocateur and not a responsible way to discuss things on a forum.

Some cheese to go with your whine?

The question in question is fair game IMO. You can always choose to ignore it

[firerescuefin]

It's not a fair question when Adam waits, and waits, and waits until things flare up again to ask. If he cares that much about it, why was he not asking the question last week? He's picked this moment to ask because of what's going on, not to have an calm conversation about things. That's the act of a provocateur and not a responsible way to discuss things on a forum.

Louis...I am not trying to be an instigator, but don't the recent happenings...across the middle east, frame the question differently. I know Adam's take....and his bump of the thread certainly begs the discussion, but nothing that is happening there (the region in general) surprises me...nor should it you. I guess we all have people that tweak us the wrong way here...anyways back to work and thoughts of Velotel's pics.

[dd74]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/us/origins-of-provocative-video-are-shrouded.html?_r=1

Of all the crap that comes out of this town...:rolleyes:

[Fixed]

What is the most popular bike in the middle east
Did you guys see this ?

Cheers
http://mtbegypt.com/begginers/buying-a-mountain-in-egyp/
http://cycle-egypt.com/
http://www.3agalmasr.com/

[dd74]

Oh, and the actors are supposedly in hiding, this is after their lines were dubbed over for the movie's final cut.

[Louis]

Some cheese to go with your whine?

I'm not sure what this has to do with anything. Are you whining about my whining? Where's that going to get us?

[BCS]

Louis, I have no dog in this fight because I try to stay out of political-ish thread on the interwebs with strangers. However, your lack of insight into your own comments in this thread is comical, given your usual thoughtful and intelligent posts. Peace.

[nicrump]

check this one out if you can find it. netflix had it a few years ago, no longer.

got to be the most obscure cycling movie ever made. produced in Iran.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077403/

a review written in 1979 http://movies.nytimes.com/movie/review?res=9807EFDD1139E732A25750C1A9649C946890D6C F

What is the most popular bike in the middle east
Did you guys see this ?

Cheers
http://mtbegypt.com/begginers/buying-a-mountain-in-egyp/
http://cycle-egypt.com/
http://www.3agalmasr.com/

[akelman]

How about we split the difference and move on? Adam asked the question hoping to provoke; and Louis, having been provoked by Adam many times in the past, overreacted. If that works for everyone -- except perhaps Adam and Louis -- then maybe we can skip the meta discussion and just acknowledge that almost nobody here has the first clue what's happening on the ground in Egypt or elsewhere in the region.

Having said all of that, what it looks like to me is that the transition from totalitarianism to democracy is always incredibly messy, not to mention violent, especially in nations that have almost no democratic institutions to foster such a transition. But what do I know? I'm just some idiot on the Internet.

[firerescuefin]

...especially in nations that have almost no democratic institutions to foster such a transition.

I would only add that the incumbents and other influences have a lot to lose....and maybe, just maybe...people don't want a democracy as we know it. I spent 3 years working throughout that area of the world and that was a common theme with the local nationals that I worked with.

[akelman]

people don't want a democracy as we know it

I would only quibble by suggesting that my own experiences in the region suggest that people in the Middle East aren't monolithic; they don't want just one thing any more than Americans do.* Put another way, I think what you said above is almost certainly true for many powerful interest groups in the region, but certainly not for all of them.

* Come to think of it, I think it's important to remember that we have huge numbers of people living in this country who don't want democracy as we know it. But we're lucky to have very powerful, and very deep-rooted, democratic institutions and traditions, which means that anti-democratic interest groups have their work cut out for them.

[Louis]

However, your lack of insight into your own comments in this thread is comical ... Peace.

Leaving the merits of your statement aside, because clearly you aren't interesting in discussing this, but I find this to be an interesting choice of words. You essentially call me an idiot, then run and hide behind a "Peace." I can't top that nor can I match your insight into my lack of insight into what was going on in my brain, so "Peace" back at ya.

[Fixed]

check this one out if you can find it. netflix had it a few years ago, no longer.

got to be the most obscure cycling movie ever made. produced in Iran.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077403/

a review written in 1979 http://movies.nytimes.com/movie/review?res=9807EFDD1139E732A25750C1A9649C946890D6C F

Thanks Nick
Cheers :)

[firerescuefin]

I would only quibble by suggesting that my own experiences in the region suggest that people in the Middle East aren't monolithic; they don't want just one thing any more than Americans do.* Put another way, I think what you said above is almost certainly true for many powerful interest groups in the region, but certainly not for all of them.

* Come to think of it, I think it's important to remember that we have huge numbers of people living in this country who don't want democracy as we know it. But we're lucky to have very powerful, and very deep-rooted, democratic institutions and traditions, which means that anti-democratic interest groups have their work cut out for them.

....Ari, my point was that the majority of Americans (Myopic) don't understand how messy democracy is (for the reasons you stated +more)...and believe that everyone (general populations) that don't live here want a Western style democracy. For instance, it was pretty clear to me in Iraq that the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds would be very happy if the other two groups ceased to exist...kind of hard to get past that...democratically.

I came home on leave, and was at the park with my wife. Apparently, I had the thousand yard stare. She asked me what was on my mind. I said, "I can't believe this is on the same earth as where I was less than 48 hours ago."

[akelman]

....Ari, my point was that the majority of Americans (Myopic) don't understand how messy democracy is (for the reasons you stated +more)...and believe that everyone (general populations) that don't live here want a Western style democracy. For instance, it was pretty clear to me in Iraq that the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds would be very happy if the other two groups ceased to exist...kind of hard to get past that...democratically.

I came home on leave, and was at the park with my wife. Apparently, I had the thousand yard stare. She asked me what was on my mind. I said, "I can't believe this is on the same earth as where I was less than 48 hours ago."

I don't think we're disagreeing at all. Regardless, I'm glad you're home safe.

[firerescuefin]

I don't think we're disagreeing at all. Regardless, I'm glad you're home safe.

Certainly not disagreeing...as a History Prof/ Author/ Life experiencer....would enjoy your POV over a ride an a beer...sometime:cool:

[akelman]

History Prof/ Author/ Life experiencer

No offense, but that's a weird way to spell "idiot on the Internet". But I'll take that beer, even though I know I won't be able to hang onto your wheel!

[Louis]

Such a love in. Can I join this "Beers at the White House" event? I'll be Biden. ;)

[Fixed]

In the words of the late great Hal David

What the world needs now
Is love, sweet love
It's the only thing that there's just too little of
What the world needs now
Is love, sweet love
No, not just for some, but for everyone

Look, we don't need another mountain
There are oceans and rivers
Enough to cross, enough to last
Until the end of time

What the world needs now
Is love, sweet love
It's the only thing that there's just too little of
What the world needs now
Is love, sweet love
No, not just for some, but for everyone

Cheers

[maxdog]

Leaving the merits of your statement aside, because clearly you aren't interesting in discussing this, but I find this to be an interesting choice of words. You essentially call me an idiot, then run and hide behind a "Peace." I can't top that nor can I match your insight into my lack of insight into what was going on in my brain, so "Peace" back at ya.

Now that's some funny *****. Go Louis.