OT: Why is stability in Egypt important to the USA

[Smiley]

Egypt is a very important cog in mid east stability. The wrong move here could spell doom for stability in the region. There are alot of very smart folks that are living in Egypt and I am sure very capable of running the country. For a long time now the Mubarak goverment has been ripe with corruption and graft. The guy like an aging pro athelete should have walked away a while ago but greed and the desire to stay in power have now made his place in history end on a bad note.
I pray that the right calmning influneces take hold asap and the ship is put back on a steady course or things will be bumpy for a long time to come.

My I also add that so far the power of the internet and social media have shown their influence on rallying masses beyond what politicians could imagine.

[54ny77]

a good friend of mine flew there on wednesday to spend 2 weeks on holiday. his timing was exquisite... :crap:

so far so good though. fingers crossed things remain entirely uneventful.

by the way, wasn't it weird how the gov't shut down all communications? is that even possible these days?

[godfrey1112000]

30 years of living in squalor

people just trying to get by or survive?

a King I mean "president" who has not made life better for the citizens

maybe it is time for fresh blood,

could you imagine,
30 years of Reagan, Clinton, Kennedy or any of the rest, probably not

turning off the internets, how would we be on the forum or facebook not to mention buying cycling equipment on line

Oh yeah, back to the original question, oil

[BengeBoy]

Here's a quick two-minute primer on modern Egypt:

http://americanfootprints.com/wp/2011/01/a-short-primer-on-egypt-now/

[54ny77]

how about 23 years of nancy pelosi?

or 47 years of ted kennedy?

or strom thurmond for almost 50 years?

:hello:

p.s. godfrey i was just in your neck of the woods recently, had dinner at the hereford house. big ol' slab o' prime rib and other healthy items.... :beer:

30 years of living in squalor

people just trying to get by or survive?

a King I mean "president" who has not made life better for the citizens

maybe it is time for fresh blood,

could you imagine,
30 years of Reagan, Clinton, Kennedy or any of the rest, probably not

turning off the internets, how would we be on the forum or facebook not to mention buying cycling equipment on line

[Fixed]

supreme court
lifetime
cheers

[godfrey1112000]

how about 23 years of nancy pelosi?

or 47 years of ted kennedy?

or strom thurmond for almost 50 years?

:hello:

p.s. godfrey i was just in your neck of the woods recently, had dinner at the hereford house. big ol' slab o' prime rib and other healthy items.... :beer:

very good points, I am a straight ticket voting Democrat, every election I ask the election people at the polls, where is the lever to pull over the "D" column of candidates, they always roll their eyes

next time you are in KC I will cook for you please let me know
or we can go to LC's BBQ for burnt ends

last nights menu, calimari capitol grille style
tenderloin of beef and a couple of mid rare lamb chops off the rack
Far Niente Cab 2006
Nickle and Nickle Cab 2004

time to hit the trainer

[TMB]

Why is it important?

Think of the Suez Canal in control of the Iranians.

[kgreene10]

The two best organized political forces in Egypt: the army and the Muslim Brotherhood. As FDR said of Samoza, "He may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."

[roguedog]

last nights menu, calimari capitol grille style
tenderloin of beef and a couple of mid rare lamb chops off the rack
Far Niente Cab 2006
Nickle and Nickle Cab 2004

time to hit the trainer

Um.. buying ticket to kansas now! :banana: :banana:

sorry.. back to our regular programming...

[54ny77]

Oh MAN that sounds ridiculously good, about 100x better than what I had....

The hotel front desk steered me to that restaurant, it was good but largely forgettable...had too much of a chain-restaurant-in-a-strip-mall feel (which I guess it was!).

Will def. look you up next time I'm in town. :beer:

Trip sidenote: I lost my cell phone at the airport car rental lot, and I'll be damned if the car rental folks and the shuttle bus drivers (including the dispatcher/supervisor) weren't the nicest folks I'd ever met, radioing all the drivers to keep an eye out for it and even going out to one of the buses that was parked (which I may have ridden in earlier). Just try asking for something like that in NYC.... :rolleyes:


next time you are in KC I will cook for you please let me know
or we can go to LC's BBQ for burnt ends

last nights menu, calimari capitol grille style
tenderloin of beef and a couple of mid rare lamb chops off the rack
Far Niente Cab 2006
Nickle and Nickle Cab 2004

time to hit the trainer

[93legendti]

Coming on the heels of the Hariri Tribunal report, this "uprising" has Iranian fingerprints all over it. Last year, Egypt uncovered a Hezbullah plot to assassinate Mubarak (Hezbullah being an Iranian proxy).

This so far feels like '79 all over again. The Administration's response was way too strident against Mubarak and did nothing to calm matters. The same thing could have been said privately to Mubarak. The public pronouncements were like oil to fire. (Strange how in 2009 when the Administration SHOULD have come out against Iran and in favor of their student revolt, it was silent for days).

Egypt's stability is important for Africa, first and foremost, then the Arab World and, of course, us. Sunni's the world over are watching carefully.

This has been bungled by the Administration and I don't see a happy ending.

[54ny77]

time to bring back ol' jimmy from the peanut farm down georgia way.... :p

[Rueda Tropical]

This has nothing to do with Iran. It started in Tunisia and as that popular democratic uprising was broadcast by AL-Jazeera and tweeted, blogged and texted to every Arab country, the pent up frustrations of years of living under undemocratic incompetent autocracies exploded.

The Tunisian revolt was triggered by a suicide: "Mohammed Bouazizi, 26, who sold fruit and vegetables illegally in Sidi Bouzid because he could not find a job. He doused himself in petrol and set himself alight when police confiscated his produce because he did not have the necessary permit."

In addition Wiki-Leaks had published cables with details of ostentatious high living revealed in by the Tunisian elite in disapproving cables from U.S. Ambassador Robert Godec; he had written that “corruption in the inner circle is growing” and that Ben Ali “and his regime have lost touch with the Tunisian people.” These were widely read by the college educated students who started the protest.

In Egypt, Jordan and Yemen crowds are pouring into the streets. It was only after the people came out that organized parties and politicians came on board. The president of Yemen has demanded that AL-Jazeera be shut down. In Egypt the internet, cell phone networks were taken down and AL-Jazeera was banned.

So far in Egypt Christians and Muslims are marching arm in arm chanting "long live the crescent together with the cross" and other chants expressing the unity of Christians and Muslims against the government.

Will the unity of secular and religious groups last beyond street protests? Will it result in democracy? No way to know. But the Egyptian people have had enough and they look like they are ready to die before they submit. It would take a massacre and brutal suppression on the scale of Iran to keep the government in power. I can't see how that would do US interests any good.

[SoCalSteve]

Thank you all for keeping this "ot" subject objective and on point.

Please no personal attacks and hopefully we can keep it open.

Happy Sunday!

[Louis]

Thank you all for keeping this "ot" subject objective

Ha - that's a good one.

Steve, I suggest that you recalibrate your objectivity meter.

[oldpotatoe]

Why is it important?

Think of the Suez Canal in control of the Iranians.

Bing, bing, bing, we have a winner!!

[oldpotatoe]

Coming on the heels of the Hariri Tribunal report, this "uprising" has Iranian fingerprints all over it. Last year, Egypt uncovered a Hezbullah plot to assassinate Mubarak (Hezbullah being an Iranian proxy).

This so far feels like '79 all over again. The Administration's response was way too strident against Mubarak and did nothing to calm matters. The same thing could have been said privately to Mubarak. The public pronouncements were like oil to fire. (Strange how in 2009 when the Administration SHOULD have come out against Iran and in favor of their student revolt, it was silent for days).

Egypt's stability is important for Africa, first and foremost, then the Arab World and, of course, us. Sunni's the world over are watching carefully.

This has been bungled by the Administration and I don't see a happy ending.

Yep, Obama's fault!!

Send in the US Army!!Send in Palin with her shotgun!!(nope don't do that, she can't hit anything).

Geez, this is about the Egyptian people. Look for a temporary military rule, Mubarak will leave, there will be elections. Not everything is about trying to get a repub elected in 2012

[Nil Else]

Wonder how far this wildfire will spread... Wonder what's Israel up to right this minute... I can't see them just passively sitting waiting to see what happens.

[Ray]

I'd rephrase the thread title - by what measure is stability in Egypt NOT important to America?

If it truly isn't an Islamic takeover, it will ultimately be a good thing - Mubarak has been a typically brutal ruler in a country where that kind of leadership has been pretty "stable" for the past 30-40 years. Sort of like in Iraq, but not nearly the poster boy for evil since he wasn't as bad, was "our" guy, and did a good job of maintaining the peace with the next door neighbors. But the chickens are coming home to roost in a region where too many people have been too poor for too long while a few at the top got filthy rich and which have not modernized as they've seen the world around them do. And, unfortunately, a lot of the folks who would likely take over these places would NOT be on our side. If the various religious factions can stay united in Egypt and it DOESN'T become another radical Islamic nation, this could be a good thing and could lead to modernization and a truer democracy. But I'd never bet a lot of money on outcomes like that. So color me "nervous".

This is the middle east - there are no GOOD answers, and its often hard to tell which is the least bad option...

-Ray

[93legendti]

Wonder how far this wildfire will spread... Wonder what's Israel up to right this minute... I can't see them just passively sitting waiting to see what happens.
Israel's up to zero. It's not their fight and they can't influence the outcome. They will up their presence on the southern border, but the Sinai is the world's biggest anti tank ditch.

According to Wikileaks, the USA is getting its wishes.

I can't recall a successful Middle Eastern revolution in the last 32 years that wasn't sponsored or fermented by Iran.

[rugbysecondrow]

last nights menu, calimari capitol grille

time to hit the trainer

Oddly enough, I was at the Baltimore capital grille last night and had the calamari. Good times!

[rwsaunders]

Saudi Arabia is next.

[Louis]

Send in Palin with her shotgun!!(nope don't do that, she can't hit anything).

Speaking of SP, perhaps we should take Rand Paul's advice and cut off all US aid to Israel.

Don't you just love those Tea Party folks?

[Nil Else]

Israel's up to zero. It's not their fight and they can't influence the outcome.


We will see. I doubt they will kick the hornet's nest.

I don't think Mubarak less Egypt/Middle East is exactly a comforting idea that sits well with Israel. He's been good and stabilizing figure to Israel in a legion full of hostility. Mubarak maybe a goner but I'd think Israel would do anything to influence the outcome of Egypt turning into another Iran.

[Rueda Tropical]

Along with US and European tourists there are Israeli tourists still in Egypt.

"The attitude towards us as Israelis and tourist is very friendly. Actually, they're overly nice compared to my previous visits in Egypt. The Egyptians want to explain themselves, to tell everyone about their struggle. They speak Arabic over here so it's easy to communicate with them. On Friday we went right past the demonstrations on our way back from the pyramids, and people helped us get though the crowd."

Israeli reports of 'friendly atmosphere' in Cairo (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4021125,00.html)

Let's hope the courage, determination, euphoria and unity of myriad segments of Egyptian society being displayed in the street can carry over into some positive outcome for Egypt.

[firerescuefin]

Funny to see the Jackasses and the Elephants choose their sides. To think that both don't have ownership in this is laughable. This issue has spanned more than a few administrations. Especially amusing is the hindsight used by so many here and elsewhere. This is what happens when you make a deal with the devil (Iran/Iraq/Egypt....Afghan/Saudi/Etc, and I refer to individuals rather than the nations themselves) in order to maintain your own lifestyle or position of power.

You can believe that Israel is on this. If you shared a border with Egypt...and the leader of Iran has mentioned the annihilation of Israel as a goal of his, and they (Iran) are funding and pushing a fundamentalist regime change in Egypt....you better be.


Baer has got a great book about the CIA's historical role in the middle east...it's a great read...and no it does not paint a great picture of the CIA or our current state of Intel in the region.

http://www.amazon.com/See-No-Evil-Soldier-Terrorism/dp/140004684X

Now to get out for a ride before we get pounded by snow and cold weather.

[93legendti]

We will see. I doubt they will kick the hornet's nest.

I don't think Mubarak less Egypt/Middle East is exactly a comforting idea that sits well with Israel. He's been good and stabilizing figure to Israel in a legion full of hostility. Mubarak maybe a goner but I'd think Israel would do anything to influence the outcome of Egypt turning into another Iran.
Israel wants Mubarak to survive and a proper, democratic succession. Israel is a country of 7 million and Egypt has almost 100 million people. There isn't a whole lot Israel can do and its spy agency hasn't exactly been active in Egypt in the last 30 yrs.
Trust me, Egyptians on the street don't care what Israel thinks and Israel has no influence in this situation.
PM Netanyahu has rightfully instructed his ministers to keep quiet.

[54ny77]

Does this mean egyptian cotton linens will go up in price? Time to stock up!

Ukranian 300 thread count cotton sheets just doesn't have the same ring...

[93legendti]

Does this mean egyptian cotton linens will go up in price? Time to stock up!

Ukranian 300 thread count cotton sheets just doesn't have the same ring...
Chad is up and coming in the cotton world...

[Smiley]

Sunni Moslems in Egypt and Iranian ????e Moslems are not always on the same page when it comes to fanatic religious beliefs.I don't think Iran has any juice when it comes to Egyptian politics. This is about throwing out a corrupt administration.

[93legendti]

Sunni Moslems in Egypt and Iranian ????e Moslems are not always on the same page when it comes to fanatic religious beliefs.I don't think Iran has any juice when it comes to Egyptian politics. This is about throwing out a corrupt administration.
http://jta.org/news/article/2009/04/13/1004388/hezbollah-plot-in-egypt-highlights-shared-interests-with-israel

Hezbollah plot in Egypt highlights shared interests with Israel
By Leslie Susser · April 13, 2009

NEWS ANALYSIS

JERUSALEM (JTA) -- The discovery of a Hezbollah terrorist network in Egypt and reports of an Iranian plot to assassinate President Hosni Mubarak have left already strained relations between Egypt and Iran in tatters.The developments have far-reaching implications for the region and for Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza.

They highlight the divide between the pro-Western moderates in the Middle East, led by Egypt, and the Iranian-led radicals. The revelations have exposed the lengths to which the radicals are prepared to go in the struggle for regional hegemony and led to a severe deterioration in Egypt's relations with Iran's main proxies, the Lebanese-based Hezbollah and the Hamas regime in Gaza.Cairo's chief prosecutor is considering indicting Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah for promoting seditious activities on Egyptian soil, and Egyptian forces have begun clamping down on arms smuggling into Gaza in a way they never have before.

According to the Egyptian media, the Hezbollah network in Egypt had been active for approximately two years. It was divided into three cells, each with a different assignment: one recruited Palestinians, Egyptians and other Arabs for terrorist attacks on Israeli tourists in Sinai; one focused on arms smuggling from Egypt to Gaza; and one aimed to destabilize the Egyptian regime.

A fourth group in Iran ostensibly was being trained to assassinate Mubarak but was disbanded when the Egyptians discreetly let the Iranians know they were aware of what was taking place.

The Hezbollah operatives in Egypt bought shops and apartments in key areas as cover for their activities: on the border with Sudan to bring in arms, in major cities to foment discontent, on the banks of the Suez Canal to monitor shipping, and in El Arish and Rafah to be close to the Gaza smuggling tunnels and to launch attacks on Israeli tourists in Sinai.

One of the Hezbollah cells apparently was meant to help bring Iranian weapons into Gaza from Sudan. Its operatives were to activate and oversee the Egyptian leg of an ambitious arms supply route from Iran to Sudan by sea or air, overland into Egypt, and then across Sinai and through the tunnels into Gaza. Some of the plans were foiled earlier this year when planes, reportedly Israeli, destroyed at least two arms convoys on their way to Egypt through the Sudanese desert.

The Egyptians say they thwarted plans by another cell to carry out a mega-terrorist attack against Israeli tourists in the Sinai similar to the simultaneous 2004 car bombings of the Hilton Taba and two other nearby resorts in which more than 30 Israelis were killed. The foiled attack apparently was planned as a large-scale retaliation for the assassination in Damascus last year of Hezbollah terrorist operations chief Imad Mughiyeh, for which the Lebanese-based militia blamed Israel.

The Hezbollah spy ring revelation underlines the common regional interests shared by Israel and Egypt. The result on the ground could be closer security and intelligence coordination in the ongoing struggle against Iran and its proxies. If this includes a strong Egyptian effort over time to stop arms smuggling through the border tunnels into Gaza, it would be a major leap forward in Israel's overall game plan vis-a-vis Hamas in Gaza: to establish a long-term regime of peace and quiet based on deterrence.

So far, the Egyptians say they have arrested 49 members of the Hezbollah network and confiscated millions of dollars and ordnance destined for Gaza or earmarked for terrorist activities in Egypt. The leader of the ring, a Lebanese citizen and Hezbollah operative named Sami Shihab, reportedly was trained for the operation in Iran.

Even Nasrallah does not deny the basic Egyptian allegations. He has admitted that "brother" Shihab was a member of Hezbollah and that the organization had been operating a ring on Egyptian soil. But he denies it intended in any way to undermine the Egyptian regime. On the contrary, he claims the ring had only 10 members and that its sole goal was to help the Palestinians in Gaza.

"If helping the Palestinians is a crime, I officially admit my crime," he declared April 10 on Hezbollah's official al-Manar television station.

The Egyptians, however, dismiss Nasrallah's claims out of hand. They recall how during the Gaza war Nasrallah called on the Egyptian people to rise up and overthrow the Mubarak government. That call, they say, was the signal for the clandestine Hezbollah ring to spring into action -- except by then many of the operatives already had been arrested.

Whatever the case, the very fact that a Hezbollah ring was secretly active on Egyptian soil in itself constitutes a grave violation of Egyptian sovereignty. Members of Egypt’s Parliament are now calling for Nasrallah to be tried in absentia and, if found guilty, for Interpol to put out a warrant for his arrest. The government-controlled media have been scathing in their criticism of Nasrallah, calling him "the monkey sheik" and "the cuckoo in the Iranian clock."

...But Egypt also is determined to remind President Obama not to forget, in his predilection for dialogue with Iran, that the Islamic Republic continues to threaten regional stability and pro-American governments. In other words, Obama should not forget his friends and allies as he tries to appease his foes.

[Smiley]

Well if you go that far its no secret that they have an interest in radicallizing the egyptian people but this belief is not held by many. I was in Egypt 2 times last year alone and one time the year before, pretty good handle on what people think. A few nut cases do exist including one in Arizona too :)

[93legendti]

Well if you go that far its no secret that they have an interest in radicallizing the egyptian people but this belief is not held by many. I was in Egypt 2 times last year alone and one time the year before, pretty good handle on what people think. A few nut cases do exist including one in Arizona too :)
If you say so...

Hezbullah threatened to kill Mubarak and tried to kill Mubarak. Hezbullah is an Iranian proxy.

If Muburak leaves abruptly as a result of this revolution there will be a vacuum. You think everything will be calm until elections can be called? Iran's proxy will step in and we will have Iran West. Lebanon is now controlled by Hezbullah and Gaza is now controlled by Hamas-they had democratic movements as well and they are long gone.

Going back to Hariri, do you notice how no one is concerned about it now?

30 years of Mubarak and this moment is chosen for a revolution. Must be a coincidence...

[TMB]

There is nothing that goes on in that part of the world that Iran are not involved in, either in front of, or behind the scenes.

Iran are determined to be the power player in the region and that requires they influence, interfere in and manipulate every possible event.

The Muslim Brotherhood are funded by Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas will already be on the streets.

6 months from now people will probably be patting themselves on the back for being "right" on this. Two years from now the story wii be different.

[TMB]

And just to make everyone happy, the 24 year exiled radical Islamic cleric arrived home in Tunisia today.

But only to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy.

[Rueda Tropical]

Hezbollah activities on Egyptian soil in support of Hamas involve a handful of agents and have no bearing or influence on the current political upheaval in Egypt. This isn't about Israel and Palestine or Shiite political movements. This is about internal Egyptian issues. Iran exercises it's influence mainly through the Shiite populations of the Mid East. The Shiite population in Egypt is tiny, much smaller then the Christian minority.

Of course autocrats and dictators all over the Mid East who are horrified by events in Tunisia and now Egypt and who would like to shutter any free press and suppress any democratic movement will say they are fighting terrorism and the US will either support their bankrupt regimes or the terrorists win. They will be seeing Iranians under every mattress and behind anything that endangers their power.

[93legendti]

Lebanon's Muslims are equal Sunni and Shia. Gaza is predominately Sunni. Syria is 74% Sunni-all 3 are clients or proxies of Iran. If you think this is about Sunni vs. Shia and pro-democracy, then Iran's interest in Syria, Gaza and Lebanon make little sense.

[Rueda Tropical]

Lebanon's Muslims are equal Sunni and Shia. Gaza is predominately Sunni. Syria is 74% Sunni-all 3 are clients or proxies of Iran. If you think this is about Sunni vs. Shia and pro-democracy, then Iran's interest in Syria, Gaza and Lebanon make little sense.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is 100% Shia and without them Iran would have zip in terms of presence in Lebanon. Syria although majority Sunni is ruled by an Alawite Shia autocracy. Hamas will take whatever patronage it can get from wherever and the Israel/Palestine question is an issue that crosses the Sunni/Shia divide.

The Iraq war was a boon for the Ayatollahs. It took out their number 1 enemy, Sadam (he killed 1 million Iranians in the Iran iraq war) and made the Shiite parties and militia that had been trained, funded and armed before the war in Iran by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard the dominant political power in Iraq. Thanks to the Iraq war we now have a crescent of Shiite power stretching from Lebanon to Iran.

But none of this is what is on the minds of Egyptians in the streets. They want democracy and a government for the people and by the people. The Ayatollahs in Iran have about as much influence with Egyptians as Netanyahu.

[Fixed]

almost 2 million gallons of oil pass through the cannel everyday
35000 ships and 8 percent of the worlds cargo pass though each year
that is why stability in egypt is important to the u.s.a.
imho cheers

[Germany_chris]

Islamic extremism started in egypt..not to mention all the other reasons posted.

[oldpotatoe]

Speaking of SP, perhaps we should take Rand Paul's advice and cut off all US aid to Israel.

Don't you just love those Tea Party folks?

Evan tho I am retired military, the defense budget is bloated. Why do we station troops in central Europe, Japan, Okinawa?

The USAF essentially was designed to provide air superiority during the land war when the Soviet Army started marching across the central plains of Europe towards the English Channel. THAT threat has been gone for 20 years. Time to reexamine the military's mission and make-up. As a retired Naval Aviator, I of course think CVs are a huge asset, special forces, 2 legs of the Nuclear deterent(Subs and missiles)...manned bombers are passe'.

The USAF should become much smaller, the USN(island nation, need sealines of communication), USMC(sea based, initial people to land), USMC air, USArmy, should be modernized. Not just new stuff, but new missions to protect the USA and her interested(read economic)

Sorry for the thread hijack and drift.

[BumbleBeeDave]

This has nothing to do with cycling. :no:

We're done here.

Yes, yes, I know . . . You know Pete's PM address.

BBD