NOAA winter weather forecast

[fiamme red]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html

The prediction for the Northeast isn't very definite:

•Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow...

[tele]

Most definitely maybe. Talk about not wanting to make a stand, just throw your hands up and shrug your shoulders.

[Karin Kirk]

I don't think long-range weather forecasting can be expressed as 'taking a stand.' If the data indicates no strong trend, that's what it is. There's really no other answer they can give in this case.

[bike22]

•Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.
this made me laugh, essentially no one has any idea what's going to happen.

[67-59]

I don't think long-range weather forecasting can be expressed as 'taking a stand.' If the data indicates no strong trend, that's what it is. There's really no other answer they can give in this case.

True, but then why don't they just say "we don't have enough information to make a prediction"? Instead, they come up with some statement that is clearly worded to look like a prediction, but really isn't.

Sometimes people are afraid to just say "I don't know," even when that's the right answer.

[Tom]

Uh, maybe they do have enough data to make a prediction and the data shows that it could go any which way.

It always makes me laugh when somebody says that somebody who is deciphering a gigantic and incredibly complex fluid dynamic system is a dummy. If they're so damn dumb, then why can't we all do it?

[Ahneida Ride]

"preconditions for a pickup in growth next year remain in place,"

"Quantitative easing"

"Irrational exuberance"

“Even if the economy recovers smartly for the rest of this year and the next, the ongoing slack in the economy may still lead to continuing disinflation,”

:crap:

[christian]

Thanks for that. I've waxed the skis, washed the bike, and fueled up the bass boat, so I should be all set.

[fiamme red]

Thanks for that. I've waxed the skis, washed the bike, and fueled up the bass boat, so I should be all set. :D

[oldpotatoe]

Most definitely maybe. Talk about not wanting to make a stand, just throw your hands up and shrug your shoulders.

Remember that some butterfly will fart in brazil and change everything anyway. It's weather 'forecasts', wait until the day after to know what the weather will be.

[67-59]

Uh, maybe they do have enough data to make a prediction and the data shows that it could go any which way.

It always makes me laugh when somebody says that somebody who is deciphering a gigantic and incredibly complex fluid dynamic system is a dummy. If they're so damn dumb, then why can't we all do it?

I don't think anyone here called them dummies. Sometimes, even a very smart person has to have the self-confidence to answer a question with "I don't know." For some reason, meteorologists seem to be unable to do that, and always need to make "I don't know" sound like a confidently-made prediction.

[cloudguy]

Did you even read what the outlook says? The point is that La Nina (which is a major source of seasonal predictability for SOME regions of the US) does not have a statistically significant impact on winter weather over the northeast. Does that really sound like "I don't know"?

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . . that they . . .

Just.

Don't.

Know.

:p

BBD

[67-59]

Did you even read what the outlook says? The point is that La Nina (which is a major source of seasonal predictability for SOME regions of the US) does not have a statistically significant impact on winter weather over the northeast. Does that really sound like "I don't know"?

Yes, I read it. The part that sounds like "I don't know" is "equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation." Equal chances for any of those options means you don't know which it'll be.

[cloudguy]

Its really more like what Rumsfeld might say: "There are things that we know we don't know". If you go to the actual linked page and look at the graphics then this cherry-picked outlook can be seen in comparison to other regions where the outlook is clearer.

[gasman]

The outlook for the Northwest however is very clear-WET

[johnnymossville]

Politicians could learn a lesson on "covering your ass" from those NOAA guys.

[Frankwurst]

Northern Wisconsin forecast for the next 4 months. Cold air is coming and Snow might come with it. :beer:

[-dustin]

dryer and warmer in TX.

Sweet.

[victoryfactory]

Long range weather forecasting is completely bogus.
It's just a bunch of scientists who are overly enamored
with their computers
trying to predict something from models that can't be reliably done.

Let them get a seven day forecast correct first.

VF

[Ray]

Long range weather forecasting is completely bogus.
It's just a bunch of scientists who are overly enamored
with their computers
trying to predict something from models that can't be reliably done.

Let them get a seven day forecast correct first.

VF
In my experience, they get an incredible percentage of seven day forecasts right and that's got to be harder than the long range stuff, since one is very general and one is at least an attempt at precision. We always hear about, bitch about, and remember, the ones they get wrong and, sure, they blow it sometimes. But they get an incredible amount right.

Usually when they tell us its gonna be a bad winter or a mild winter, they're right. Last year they predicted a bugger of a winter and that's what we got - more snow than at anytime in the almost 20 years I've lived back east. And it came in big freaking bunches. Some winters they predict mild and usually get that right too. This winter, they're obviously saying the models are going right down the middle and there are equal chances for sort of tough, sort of easy, or right down the middle.

I don't find any scandal here. There's no reason to just say "We don't have any idea" because that sounds like they don't know what they're doing, when in fact they have a damn good idea of what they're doing and the forecast just isn't clear this year.

Y'all are a damn tough audience.

-Ray

[merckx]

Winter in the Northeast will start off cold. November and December will be below average. Temps will moderate in January. Snowfall for the period between November and March will be at, or just below average. The Northeast will be a battle ground between a warmer than normal south and a very cold and wet Northwest and into the high plains. Think spring!

[DreaminJohn]

I'll believe the next meteorologist that can explain the difference between "partly cloudy" and "mostly sunny".

:beer:

[merckx]

I'll believe the next meteorologist that can explain the difference between "partly cloudy" and "mostly sunny".

:beer:

You mean, "partly cloudy" and "partly sunny".

[Bobbo]

In my experience, they get an incredible percentage of seven day forecasts right and that's got to be harder than the long range stuff, since one is very general and one is at least an attempt at precision. We always hear about, bitch about, and remember, the ones they get wrong and, sure, they blow it sometimes. But they get an incredible amount right.

Usually when they tell us its gonna be a bad winter or a mild winter, they're right. Last year they predicted a bugger of a winter and that's what we got - more snow than at anytime in the almost 20 years I've lived back east. And it came in big freaking bunches. Some winters they predict mild and usually get that right too. This winter, they're obviously saying the models are going right down the middle and there are equal chances for sort of tough, sort of easy, or right down the middle.

I don't find any scandal here. There's no reason to just say "We don't have any idea" because that sounds like they don't know what they're doing, when in fact they have a damn good idea of what they're doing and the forecast just isn't clear this year.

Y'all are a damn tough audience.

-Ray

If this is true, (and in fact I agree with you, in principle) then why are so many unwilling to question the certitude that pervades the dire predictions of the global-warming alarmists?