Spoiler: Stage 19 TT

[thwart]

Wow... only 39 sec difference.

Brings back that chaindrop and Contador's attack as the major separation for the yellow jersey.

[Rueda Tropical]

Wow... only 39 sec difference.

Brings back that chaindrop and Contador's attack as the major separation for the yellow jersey.

31 seconds separated them if that stage was neutralized. So by the official rules, the unwritten rules and the rules made up by internet armchair quarterbacks Contador won the Tour, no what if's, no buts, no qualifiers.

Can't wait until next year. This is Coppi v Bartoli stuff. You won't be able to give up a second on the cobbles, the mountains or the TT with these 2. It will be war from the Prologue until the finish. Great tour.

[lurpy]

39 seconds matches the AS time loss on stage 15 1:1. Should be enough to keep the cycling journals in business until TDF 2011.

[Tim]

This has been one of the best tours in recent memory- lots of great riding right from the start. And French riders even won a bunch of stages too- so you know Bernard Hainault is happy.

[jmc22]

31 seconds separated them if that stage was neutralized. So by the official rules, the unwritten rules and the rules made up by internet armchair quarterbacks Contador won the Tour, no what if's, no buts, no qualifiers..

You may want to recheck your math:
AS had a 31 second lead at the end of stage 14
AC had a 8 second lead at the end of stage 15
31 + 8 = 39 seconds
AC currently has a 39 second lead at the end of stage 19

By my math it would be a dead even fight right now....notwithstanding the fact that the TDF dropped the time bonsus for the top 3 finshers and AS won 2 stages to AC's big goose egg of 0

[Rueda Tropical]

You may want to recheck your math:
AS had a 31 second lead at the end of stage 14
AC had a 8 second lead at the end of stage 15

If you voided the results of stage 15 as they did for the earlier stage, AC would have needed 31 seconds in the TT. He got 39.

Of course if Andy had not dropped his chain Contador would have ridden differently so there is no way to know what happens in that alternate universe. In this one Contador did what he had to do to win and Schleck given multiple opportunities was unable to prevent it.

[Lifelover]

If you voided the results of stage 15 as they did for the earlier stage, AC would have needed 31 seconds in the TT. He got 39.

Of course if Andy had not dropped his chain Contador would have ridden differently so there is no way to know what happens in that alternate universe. In this one Contador did what he had to do to win and Schleck given multiple opportunities was unable to prevent it.


They have never "voided the results", they just give every one the same time as if they finished in a group.

jmc22's math is still correct, without the chain drop ( and making tons of other assumptions) they would be dead even right now.

One assumption that would have to be made is that AC would have been able to match the acceleration of AS prior to the chain drop. At the time, AC was at least a few hundred feet back.

[alancw3]

i've said it before and i'll say it again in stage 17 ac gave as the win possibly because of all the controvercy over the mechanical failure. i do believe ac had much more left in stage 17 that he could have used. just imho.

[Lifelover]

Did AS have a really good ride or was AC really off his game? Maybe a littel of both.

Strange to see AC that far behind Fabion and Menchov.

[SEABREEZE]

This has been one of the best tours in recent memory- lots of great riding right from the start. And French riders even won a bunch of stages too- so you know Bernard Hainault is happy.


Without a dought...

by jmc "By my math it would be a dead even fight right now....notwithstanding the fact that the TDF dropped the time bonsus for the top 3 finshers and AS won 2 stages to AC's big goose egg of 0

Not fair, Contador could of gave AS a run for his money, but let him take the stage, as he was the one breaking the wind all the way up the mt. Perhaps he was also thinging about he should of stopped when AS had the chain problem. His way of giving back.

Additionally he may have learned a thing or two from Lance, in you dont have to win a stage to win the tour..

[SEABREEZE]

i've said it before and i'll say it again in stage 17 ac gave as the win possibly because of all the controvercy over the mechanical failure. i do believe ac had much more left in stage 17 that he could have used. just imho.


Just what I said in my previous post... agree

[Rueda Tropical]

They have never "voided the results", they just give every one the same time as if they finished in a group.

The effect of neutralizing the results when the chain drop occurred and giving everyone in the lead group the same time as Schleck is Contador would have finished the day 31 seconds behind Schleck.

You would not give Schleck another 8 seconds making it 39.

Regardless no one knows what Schleck or Contador could have done with different circumstances. Every racer who comes in close thinks about what could have been if only. 21 days is enough time and opportunity to sort out the yellow.

[Ray]

I'm not sure of the math, but AS himself said he'd have still lost by a couple of seconds without Alberto taking time after the dropped chain. Anyway you look at it though, it's so close it's functionally a tie between the two best grand tour riders in the world right now and nobody else is even close. GREAT stuff. I saw the end in an Italian bike shop with a bunch of locals bunched around a computer screen gesticulating wildly - I couldn't have asked for more!

-Ray

[GoJavs]

They have never "voided the results", they just give every one the same time as if they finished in a group.

jmc22's math is still correct, without the chain drop ( and making tons of other assumptions) they would be dead even right now.

One assumption that would have to be made is that AC would have been able to match the acceleration of AS prior to the chain drop. At the time, AC was at least a few hundred feet back.

Several hundred feet back? Wow. You guys are watching another race.

I can bet you one thing. Next time Cancellara tries to pull that stunt he did on stage 2, it won't go over so well. AC won. fair and square. Get over it folks.

[gasman]

Regardless no one knows what Schleck or Contador could have done with different circumstances. Every racer who comes in close thinks about what could have been if only. 21 days is enough time and opportunity to sort out the yellow.

I agree.

It was a great Tour, one of the best in years.

I look forward to next year.

[Elefantino]

I am sure of the math. ;) Without a chain drop, Schleck would have come to the line with a 31-second lead.

AC wins by 39 seconds, which means he is up by a theoretical 8 seconds, same as LeMond vs. Fignon.

Awesome. :banana:

Aside: Did anyone notice he kept shoving himself back on his saddle, about every fourth or fifth pedal stroke? He's been doing that all year, but I don't remember it last year.

Interesting analysis. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sYUfzHzYaU)

[Onno]

Can we now say that SRAM cost Schleck the Tour?! Or rather, can Campy and Shimano now say that?! :) :) SRAM execs must have been hoping for a convincing Contador win today, to put the chain drop controversy behind them.

[pbjbike]

Aside: Did anyone notice he kept shoving himself back on his saddle, about every fourth or fifth pedal stroke? He's been doing that all year, but I don't remember it last year.

Interesting analysis. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sYUfzHzYaU)

Looks like the saddle nose is pointing down a bit too much, or he's got a secret power technique that no one else knows about.

[soulspinner]

If Scleck kept the jersey and Alberto had to set tempo all the way up the Tourmalet, the tt would have been slightly different maybe?

[bzbvh5]

Can we now say that SRAM cost Schleck the Tour?! Or rather, can Campy and Shimano now say that?! :) :) SRAM execs must have been hoping for a convincing Contador win today, to put the chain drop controversy behind them.
Or we could say SRAM won Alberto the tour. Maybe Schleck's Specialized frame was at fault. Oh wait, never mind.

[oldguy00]

Aside from the chain drop, I bet Andy is thinking back to his horrible prologue..

Also, I think Contador could have taken more time in the mountains on Andy if he needed to.

[1centaur]

Funny the way Versus spun today as a great ride for AS. It was a somewhat mediocre ride (note the quality of those around him, and Sammy Sanchez went at the same time and his ride was viewed as poor), but AC's ride was appallingly worse than expected. Whatever prognostication we get on the awesome match-up to come next year needs to account for this TT (and whatever it might imply about fading mountain skills). Yes I know it was windy, but Menchov did a good ride and AC would have been thought to be better than Menchov.

BTW, I don't seem to recall Versus saying that AS crushed Lance. Interesting that 3 Shacks finished in about the same time.

Bottom line question: was AC unusually pumped up under Johan or temporarily physically deficient this year? Spartacus would like to know.

[thegunner]

Funny the way Versus spun today as a great ride for AS. It was a somewhat mediocre ride (note the quality of those around him, and Sammy Sanchez went at the same time and his ride was viewed as poor), but AC's ride was appallingly worse than expected. Whatever prognostication we get on the awesome match-up to come next year needs to account for this TT (and whatever it might imply about fading mountain skills). Yes I know it was windy, but Menchov did a good ride and AC would have been thought to be better than Menchov.

BTW, I don't seem to recall Versus saying that AS crushed Lance. Interesting that 3 Shacks finished in about the same time.

Bottom line question: was AC unusually pumped up under Johan or temporarily physically deficient this year? Spartacus would like to know.

well, i've said it previously and i'll stir the pot a bit here. there's no way ac got to be better at TT'ing than cancellara without a bit of 'help' last year. this seems like a correction to the norm ;)

[Climb01742]

AS needs to work on his TT position. his head is quite high. as john cobb tried to tell them, andy's position is working against him. AC and AS seem equal in the mountains. until AS can TT better, he has a long row to hoe.

[pdmtong]

well, i've said it previously and i'll stir the pot a bit here. there's no way ac got to be better at TT'ing than cancellara without a bit of 'help' last year. this seems like a correction to the norm ;)

c'mon...if a "protected rider" beats a guy like fabian who has been out in front for 3 weeks, does anyone really think that rider is better at TT than spartacus? if anything, there ought to be a time handicap based on amout of time in front and a time penalty for amount of time drafting to equal things out. I know that will never happen....

[victoryfactory]

so you know Bernard Hainault is happy.

Sounds like the setup for a joke...
"How can you tell when a badger is happy?"

[thegunner]

c'mon...if a "protected rider" beats a guy like fabian who has been out in front for 3 weeks, does anyone really think that rider is better at TT than spartacus? if anything, there ought to be a time handicap based on amout of time in front and a time penalty for amount of time drafting to equal things out. I know that will never happen....

fabian's also taking it 'easy' in the mountains whilst contador was attacking. i feel like in the end it'd be more or less a wash. even if there were a marked advantage from the drafting, i still don't see how someone as small as alberto contador starts TT'ing so much faster than all the other climbers.

[93legendti]

AC seemed stronger last year. If I had an 8 sec lead, I would have tried to widen the lead in the mtns. Stronger TT skill or not, flats, mechanicals, weather, etc. could have made 8 seconds go away in a hurry. So I am surprised AC didn't try to take out some more time on Andy. That makes me think AC didn't think he could drop Andy once he had taken the yellow jesrsey.

It worked out for AC and hats off to him (5 for 5 in his last 5 grand tours, iirc).

[victoryfactory]

Watching AS and AC duke it out in the TT was like
watching two champion fighters in the 15th round. (19th)

Comparing that drama to the times of the other riders doesn't
really tell the story of this year's tour.

VF

[cloudguy]

Yeah, plus Fabian suffered a broken chain on the Muur last year, I believe.

[William]

Interesting how many AC fans seem to think that he didn't give his all. That he must have been holding back because he's been so strong in the past.

To close to just be "getting by". I think AS gave him a run, and that he just didn't have the same juice he's had in the past. It's a tough freakin' race don't you know.





William

[Ray]

AC seemed stronger last year. If I had an 8 sec lead, I would have tried to widen the lead in the mtns. Stronger TT skill or not, flats, mechanicals, weather, etc. could have made 8 seconds go away in a hurry. So I am surprised AC didn't try to take out some more time on Andy. That makes me think AC didn't think he could drop Andy once he had taken the yellow jesrsey.

It worked out for AC and hats off to him (5 for 5 in his last 5 grand tours, iirc).
I think he "seemed" stronger last year because nobody else was close. This year, someone else was DAMN close, but the two of them still dominated everyone else in the mountains. I think the anomaly was AC's final TT last year - the yellow jersey effect.

Do I think he was doping last year? Of course. This year too. Schlek too. Both years. Makes it easier to enjoy the sport if you don't wear yourself out speculating about who is and who isn't and just assume they all are.

-Ray

[Karin Kirk]

I think that Alberto beating Fabian Cancellara last year was a fluke and we'll never see that repeated under normal circumstances.

I can't quite wrap my head around the idea that Cancellara rode 33 miles in one hour. I can ride 33 mph for maybe one minute!

Today was great fun; I was yelling at the TV when Andy came out 2 seconds faster at the first time check. Amazing! I agree that this has been a thrilling and entertaining tour. AC and AS are essentially evenly matched. You can replay and re-analyze one mishap or missed opportunity over another, but at the end of 3 weeks they are basically side by side. Cool.

Now I think Andy will get some TT coaching and get himself to the wind tunnel. He could easily pick up 30 seconds or more by some simple changes.

It was also cool to see Laurent Fignon on the coverage today. Hats off to him!

All in all a great tour and we are going to have major withdrawal next week.

[Louis]

Given the length of the race and the effort, blood, sweat and tears the riders have to put out (whether they are doped or not) it seems to me that there's a problem with the way things are set up if it all comes down to a single dropped chain / missed shift / whatever.

Yes, a close finish is exciting, but having one tiny mechanical problem (even if it was at a critical time) play such a large role in determining the outcome is a bummer for both the winner and the runner-up. I guess it happens all the time - a tiny rock or patch of oil in a given curve, and boom, a favorite is down and out. Nevertheless, if I really cared about the race I would find this sort of ending unsatisfying.

L

[cinema]

I am not familiar with the Tour because I am fairly new to cycling but what makes everyone seem to think that the tour is over? do standings generally not change much in the final stage? is :39 a lot? sorry for my ignorance ;)

[Ray]

I am not familiar with the Tour because I am fairly new to cycling but what makes everyone seem to think that the tour is over? do standings generally not change much in the final stage? is :39 a lot? sorry for my ignorance ;)
The last stage is almost always a ceremonial ride into Paris (except for the relatively rare occasion when they end with a TT in Paris). Even if it was not ceremonial, it would be all but impossible for a GC rider to gain time on a flat stage. And in this context, 39 seconds may as well be 39 minutes or hours. In a TT or mountain stage it would still be up for grabs, but given the stage they'll run today, they'll be drinking champagne in the peloton and the only thing up for grabs will be the sprint finish for the stage and maybe some green jersey points.

-Ray

[Louis]

do standings generally not change much in the final stage?

Edit - I see Ray beat me to it.

The final stage is purely ceremonial - a parade in to Paris.

The only thing that will be contested is the final sprint - unless the green jersey is very very close (I haven't followed the race this year), in which case some intermediate sprints may also be contested. The GC is done. If the GC were close enough then folks would have to be careful for the time bonuses awarded for the various sprints, but because the top guys on the GC are never sprinters others will always beat them to it.

[Louis]

Ray, at least we were consitent in our responses!

[soulspinner]

I want time bonuses back. Changes GC and makes winning a stage a big deal, as it should be to a Gc contender. Contador has no Panache.

[Rueda Tropical]

Contador in an interview said he has been having trouble with his form all year and that the TT was his most difficult day this year. He said he was not riding at the level he rode last year. Considering he has been struggling with his form he got amazing results.

No one knows what next year will bring. The Schleck's new team could be great or a disaster for them. Contador, as much as he would like to emulate guys like Hinault and Merckx and contest multiple races may need to focus, like Lance did on the Tour alone, as the competition is now so tough. Look at the average winning times, they are now 40+ km. The 3rd place times would have won past Tours.

[OtayBW]

Contador in an interview said he has been having trouble with his form all year and that the TT was his most difficult day this year. He said he was not riding at the level he rode last year. Considering he has been struggling with his form he got amazing results.

What the heck was going on with him, anyway? He kept scootching forward on the saddle, and then correcting himself rearward every 4 pedal strokes - like clockwork. It was disturbing to watch all this activity (discomfort?)....