Only Contador remains from Astana's 2009 TdF roster.

[Floyd Dakil]

Here's the 2009 Astana rider's list from the TdF. All riders below Contador's name are now signed with Radio Shack:

CONTADOR Alberto
ARMSTRONG Lance
KLÖDEN Andréas
LEIPHEIMER Levi
MURAVYEV Dmitriy
PAULINHO Sergio
POPOVYCH Yaroslav
RAST Gregory
ZUBELDIA Haimar

In addition to these guys, Radio Shack has signed other top Astana riders like Jose Luis Ribiera, Chris Horner, and Jani Brajkovic. The Shack has picked up Gert Steegmans, formerly of Katusha. This is an exceptionally strong team, and to paraphrase what Lance said in his spat with Contador, "without a team, you don't win." Alberto will have to vie with Vinokourov over leadership at Astana. I cannot imagine either one consenting to support the other.

With a team like this and with another year of training under his belt, Lance might reasonably be considered the odds-on favorite to win the tour in 2010.

[cmg]

lance may not win but neither will contrador. Armstrong and bruyneel are the best at what they do.

[oldguy00]

I think Contador will still win.
There is no team time trial (I think). So Contador needs a team strong enough to pace/protect him on the flat stages and deliver water to him. He is strong enough on his own to hang on to any of the leaders in the mountains.
My .02

[MattTuck]

I tend to agree with "oldguy" that Contador is pretty damn strong by himself. Not sure if I would go so far as to say that he could win on his own without a team in the mountains, but it would be fun to watch him try.

[goonster]

He is strong enough on his own to hang on to any of the leaders in the mountains.

Any one of them, probably. All of them, no. He can't cover every attack in the mountains.

[oldguy00]

Any one of them, probably. All of them, no. He can't cover every attack in the mountains.
Covering all the attacks basically just means he continually goes with the fastest rider off the front.
I know its easier said than done, but I don't think his challengers are strong enough to actually crack him in the mountains. Even if they take turns attacking, they'll basically increase the overall pace, but I doubt any of them will get away from him.
That of course is assuming he has the same form he had in July.

[JMerring]

Far be it for me to disagree with Dopestrong, but I think some riders can win without a team and some can't. Cadel is a case in point - with a stronger team, he probably would have won in '08, maybe even '07. I don't much like Cadel but he has definitely been screwed in the team department. In the absence of a TTT, I think Contador could definitely win without a team or without a strong team. I thought at least a few riders would stay with him at Astana, but it seems as if the money spoke to them too loudly.

However, the Astana deal isn't sealed yet. See: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/astana-protour-fight-continues-uci-seek-extra-guarantees.

[lemonlaug]

Don't forget they won't have radios next year either. To me that's going to make having a team that can cover the breaks, or bring them back (and possibly from a long way out) as needed even more important.

[false_Aest]

Don't forget they won't have radios next year either. To me that's going to make having a team that can cover the breaks, or bring them back (and possibly from a long way out) as needed even more important.


Sounds mega interesting.

TFT

[alancw3]

i think phil liggett stated several tmes at the conclusion of the 2009 tdf that contador could have won w/o a team to support him. so he may be able to win the 2010 w/o team support.

[BigDaddySmooth]

He finished 40 seconds in front of Frank Schleck in the overall, the same 40 seconds Astana put into Saxo Bank in the TTT. "Could" have been a deadheat for 3d on the podium w/o the TTT. Armstrong and his ilk are not getting any younger so he'll finish no better than 3rd behind AC and Andy again. As Paul Sherwen likes to say, "the climbing legs are the first to go" as a cyclist gets older. Too bad Klodi doesn't try to win to find a team leader job instead of working for LA.

[JMerring]

Too bad Klodi doesn't try to win to find a team leader job instead of working for LA.

What surprises me even more about Kloden is his apparent loyalty to Armstrong in light of Armstrong chasing him down for the victory into Le Grand Bornand in 2004. Then again, given the $$ that is likely involved, I guess no real shocker.

[johnnymossville]

Contador could still win on his own he so good, but as good as he is, there's no way he could cover every attack in the mountains. It would probably take a few stages in Contador's case to soften him up enough for someone on a stronger team to exploit it. It's going to be FUN to watch.

Who is the new Astana DS going to be?

[paczki]

Contador could still win on his own he so good, but as good as he is, there's no way he could cover every attack in the mountains. It would probably take a few stages in Contador's case to soften him up enough for someone on a stronger team to exploit it. It's going to be FUN to watch.

Who is the new Astana DS going to be?

He only has to cover the attacks of the people who can win. That said, it's hard to win without a team.

[Dekonick]

Contador sure looks strong... I wouldn't count him out.

[MattTuck]

i think phil liggett stated several tmes at the conclusion of the 2009 tdf that contador could have won w/o a team to support him. so he may be able to win the 2010 w/o team support.

I love Phil, but let's be honest... he's slipping.

[WeakRider]

This is the man who will take RadioShack to the promised land.

http://www.thirdwave-websites.com/blog/fumy-beppu-tour-de-france-wheelie-skil.jpg

[jbrainin]

FWIW, Contador just won the TdF without a team (as his own was actively working against him.) Next year might prove a little easier for him.

[93legendti]

Considering the winner's share (€450,000 in 2009) is usually split between the support riders and staff, a support rider leaving Astana for RS either received a hefty raise or figured his chances of getting a portion of the grand prize loot in 2010 was diminished without JB at the helm.

[1centaur]

Working for a highly professional organization at the end of one's career (Levi, Kloden, Horner, Zubeldia, Rubiera, arguably others) has its attractions. Not working for Kazakhs with a one-year plan also has attractions. A good support rider is in a better spot at RS unless he strongly believes he'd go with AC to a Spanish team in one year.

[Elefantino]

LA will win ... only if the podium girls look like mom.

[Climb01742]

um, aren't there 20 teams in the tour? ;) while contador and RS play their reindeer games, i'd keep an eye on saxo bank. andy and bjarne may be finally ready to win it. contador is better than andy, but with a huge bull's eye on his back and a weak team and an enemy named LA, alberto could be dethroned by a guy with enough talent and a smart, dedicated team. remember, sastre won by basically hanging tough, then winning one stage.

[soulspinner]

um, aren't there 20 teams in the tour? ;) while contador and RS play their reindeer games, i'd keep an eye on saxo bank. andy and bjarne may be finally ready to win it. contador is better than andy, but with a huge bull's eye on his back and a weak team and an enemy named LA, alberto could be dethroned by a guy with enough talent and a smart, dedicated team. remember, sastre won by basically hanging tough, then winning one stage.

+1 Can Contador cover attacks from every team?

[tele]

Contador has proven he is not the most adapt at reading race situations and tactics. I believe the lack of radios puts him at an even bigger disadvantage.

Having said that, he is still the strongest rider.

[victoryfactory]

FWIW, Contador just won the TdF without a team (as his own was actively working against him.) Next year might prove a little easier for him.

good point

[harlond]

Covering all the attacks basically just means he continually goes with the fastest rider off the front.
I know its easier said than done, but I don't think his challengers are strong enough to actually crack him in the mountains. Even if they take turns attacking, they'll basically increase the overall pace, but I doubt any of them will get away from him.
That of course is assuming he has the same form he had in July.Luis Leon Sanchez was able to do it in Paris Nice.

[BdaGhisallo]

Contador will need a team in the opening stages of the race. He may be able to look after himself in the mountains but those opening stages could be tricky. In the mountains he may be able to parry any attacks from his GC competitors with ease, but the value of having guys around him after the climbs start to fetch bottles and be with him in the valleys cannot be underestimated.

[rustychain]

Contador is toast IF he gets to ride. Smart beats strong IMO and he is well....4th place says I

While I'm at it.....Cadel is toast too. To far down to mention in polite company

Lance, maybe 3rd if he is team leader (yea I know about the ego thing but still)

Wiggans...that's interesting. He could go either way. My guess/hope is 3rd depending on the Schlecks


:beer: Flame on :beer:

[dekindy]

I still can't believe that with Contador's performance in 2007-2009 that he is not the unquestioned leader on any team, period, end of story. This includes 2009 Astana. Can someone explain this to me? Is he not being assertive enough and demanding the respect he deserves? Come on, having to get his own ride to some stage start lines in this year's TdF. What gives? Is there something that I am missing here? Is Contador not as clearly the best as I perceive him to be?

[JMerring]

I still can't believe that with Contador's performance in 2007-2009 that he is not the unquestioned leader on any team, period, end of story. This includes 2009 Astana. Can someone explain this to me? Is he not being assertive enough and demanding the respect he deserves? Come on, having to get his own ride to some stage start lines in this year's TdF. What gives? Is there something that I am missing here? Is Contador not as clearly the best as I perceive him to be?

I agree but believe that the Armstrong/Bruyneel mafia, Armstrong comeback circus and a media bias (at least in the US) very strongly in Armstrong's favor have had an adverse effect on Contador's image.

[MattTuck]

I still can't believe that with Contador's performance in 2007-2009 that he is not the unquestioned leader on any team, period, end of story. This includes 2009 Astana. Can someone explain this to me? Is he not being assertive enough and demanding the respect he deserves? Come on, having to get his own ride to some stage start lines in this year's TdF. What gives? Is there something that I am missing here? Is Contador not as clearly the best as I perceive him to be?

C'mon, Lance is just taking lessons from the badger.

[mosca]

OK, I'll call it right now: If Lance is in it, he will win it. Experience, top team, top DS, superhuman motivation, and a whole year to focus on Le Tour.

This is shaping up to be an awesome Tour. Is it July yet???

[93legendti]

I agree but believe that the Armstrong/Bruyneel mafia, Armstrong comeback circus and a media bias (at least in the US) very strongly in Armstrong's favor have had an adverse effect on Contador's image.
Or, it could be AC's repeated failure to follow team orders.

[jbrainin]

When team orders are for the team's best rider (by far) to lose the race, you can be sure the best rider is going to ignore those orders and especially after his time promised time and again to give him its full, unwavering support.

[cfox]

Astana has hired some pretty good names to manage this team...not to mention former tour winner (runner-up, really) Oscar Pereiro as a domestique. And say what you want about Vino, but the guy is an animal. He knows he can't compete vs. Contador in the Tour, and has pledged his full support. It's a bit early to write off Astana as team and just assume they won't be able to support Contador.
In any case, Contador is so absurdely stronger than any other stage racer right now, any support he gets will be gravy. He won this year with half his team, and all of it's management, working AGAINST him. Had he been given his wings throughout the race, he could have won by 15 minutes. Also, there is no team time trial in the tour next year (much to Armstrong's consternation). If there had not been a team time trial this year, Armstrong would have been lucky to crack the top ten.

[cadence90]

Has anyone seen AC's new white Sidis with the pink, yellow, and gold crowns?

They were on La Gazzetta the other day.

Very nice shoes.

No other active rider in the world has those shoes.

'Nuf said.

[StephenCL]

Astana has hired some pretty good names to manage this team...not to mention former tour winner (runner-up, really) Oscar Pereiro as a domestique. And say what you want about Vino, but the guy is an animal. He knows he can't compete vs. Contador in the Tour, and has pledged his full support. It's a bit early to write off Astana as team and just assume they won't be able to support Contador.
In any case, Contador is so absurdely stronger than any other stage racer right now, any support he gets will be gravy. He won this year with half his team, and all of it's management, working AGAINST him. Had he been given his wings throughout the race, he could have won by 15 minutes. Also, there is no team time trial in the tour next year (much to Armstrong's consternation). If there had not been a team time trial this year, Armstrong would have been lucky to crack the top ten.


While both Oscar and Vino are very fine riders and fully capable in their own rite, I truly believe AC underestimates the impact of the Johan card. He is the best DS in the business and knows how to win GT's.

I don't think that Contrador can win the tour without JB and the blue train.

You have to have the team tatics and the horespower to stay fresh as the leader. I think AC completely underestimates what will be required of him as a rider without JB and the team to back him up.

The last guy to truly win the tour without a fabulous team was GL in 89. I think the tour has evolved since 89, and I am not sure it is even possible.

[1centaur]

While it's way too early to say who'll win the Tour, I don't think it's too early to say that winning the Tour without a great team is very possible. I think Sastre proved that; CSC has great riders but they were not a great team in the JB sense.

The JB/LA model is a great one for increasing odds, but it required a phenomenal rider to make it work. Hincapie would not have won a single Tour despite being very good (top 10 TT and very good climber in the end) if he had had the equivalent team that LA enjoyed for his 7 wins. The JB strategy increased the odds that the best guy would win, or perhaps tilted the odds in a way that hurt Ulrich, but ultimately it was about being the best time trialist and just about the best climber that got LA the wins. If he'd been a dope and chased every attack until he was dog tired he would have lost, or if there had been three Jan Ulrich's riding against him and one of them had been an explosive climber he might have lost regardless of his team. But history granted him as rivals the big diesel and Beloki and otherwise riders who were TT riders or climbers but not both. Kudos to JB for the team tactics, but they only gave LA so much (much of it emotional comfort).

Flash forward to today and what counts is not fantasy riders but real riders. Andy Schleck is smooth and fast on steep climbs but not so explosive he's likely to get away from Contador (who kinda loafed after him in 2009). Armstrong's age and muscle-boundness are not helping him. Frank Schleck is not in that league. Neither Schleck can TT at AC's pace. Evans and Levi can't climb explosively in the high mountains, and both can fail to deliver in the TT. If AC's on his game there is nobody but a rejuvenated LA who can challenge him in the TT/climbing combo. Will LA be better in year 2 of the comeback? Will be interesting to see. Will AC chase Kloden or Levi up the road while LA hangs on his tail? That's the question. I'm guessing he can chase either one without burning too many matches because they are not explosive enough. Everything else will be like 2009 - sitting in, feeling the animosity, staying tranquilo, scaring the peloton - assuming he's on form and trains as well away from JB as with him. To some extent I think that's the bigger risk - the professionalism (read into that what you want) of the whole JB approach vs. a generic team approach might leave AC a step or two behind his prep for 2009. Then, team will make a difference.

[cfox]

[QUOTE=StephenCL]While both Oscar and Vino are very fine riders and fully capable in their own rite, I truly believe AC underestimates the impact of the Johan card. He is the best DS in the business and knows how to win GT's.

[QUOTE]

All true. No argument. The thing is, Contador won despite Johan this year. I like his odds with a less talented, but loyal DS. Other than the team time trial, Contador was given very little support at all by his team. Johan was constantly trying to clip his wings in order to stack the podium. Johan's job as a DS is to deliver his best rider to victory. It is absurd to expect your leader to compromise any chance to gain time in order to secure 2nd or 3rd place for teammates. 2nd place is first loser, and we all know that...

[Rueda Tropical]

Or, it could be AC's repeated failure to follow team orders.

The team orders where slow down so we can get LA in Yellow and then you will have to ride for him. With the DS and a good part of the team dependent on Armstrong for their financial future he did what he had to do.

All the breathless talk of how Armstrong was going to slice and dice Contador now that he pissed him off looked pretty silly by the end of the race. Not only could Lance not beat him in the mountains, Contador shreded him in the TT beating even Spartucus.

Contador is still a year away from his dream team so he will have another year of doing what he will have to do. That might give an opening to Saxo or someone else but I would not count Contador out and Lance has less of a chance against him next year then last. Lance will be a year older and have the same DS and riders but Contador will have a DS and a team working for him -period. What good is having the best DS in the biz if he's working to put someone else in yellow. That's worse then having a mediocre DS working for you.

[JD Smith]

All these Bruyneel/Armstrong mafia posts and not one has addressed the question of why each and every Astana member of consequence, young and old, has of their own free will chosen to continue working with Johan and riding for Lance.
If you want to call it a Mafia, be honest and call it a Bruyneel/Lance/Kloden/Horner/Leipheimer/Brajkovic/Chechu/Muravyev/Paulinho/Popo/Rast/Zubeldia/ Eki Mafia.
At some point you have ask where these claims of "team orders" originated. We're rattling them off as if they were fact, rather than hysterical sour grapes born in internet forums. At some point you have to see there came a point well before the Tour ended when Lance and Johan stated outright that Contador was the strongest and the team was working for him.
At some point you have to ask whether it's plausible that Contador stands alone-righteous and blame-free, while the rest of the team is to be labeled a "Mafia", who were directed by a man who's won 10 Grand Tours in plot to throw away the Tour out of spite.
I'm guessing some people have "Going Rogue" on their Christmas list.

[jbrainin]

"At some point you have to see there came a point well before the Tour ended when Lance and Johan stated outright that Contador was the strongest and the team was working for him. "

Well, considering the only chance they had to stop Contador was to push him off Ventoux, one might reasonably think that such sentiments by Bruyneel and Armstrong were nothing but PR/damage control. Given that they provided no vehicle to get Contador to the start of the final time trial and that all team cars were commandeered at the top of Ventoux leaving no vehicle to take Contador down the mountain, their actions spoke much louder than their words.

BTW, concerning the Palin analogy: LA is the one wearing her shoes in this tale.

[Climb01742]

one other variable: year-to-year progress or decline. who's on the up-slope and who's on the down-slope? this year, wiggins was an amazing example of what sort of progress is possible. AC could add a bit, though he appears to be at his peak (which is awfully darn high). AS seems to have some untapped potential left to possibly realize. LA is...well...trying to pull one more training rabbit out of the hat...who knows?

the other big variable in '10 is the pave. though it's less than 15km, just ask mayo how pave can f-up your race. AS will have spartacus and stuey leading the way.

should be fascinating.

[Floyd Dakil]

One issue already alluded to is whether Lance will be significantly better with a second year of serious training.

Consider the case of the Irish middle-distance runner Eamonn Coghlan. He was a world champion and three-time Olympian. Coghlan retired from professional running at the age of 36, but he started training again at 39 to become the first masters to run a sub-four-minute mile. But he needed two years to get to that level. I don't recall his best performance at 40, but I think he ran something like 4:05. The following year, at the age of 41, he ran 3:58. (His best time from his peak years was 3:49.) The extra year of training from 40 to 41 more than offset the aging.

Lance stayed in better shape during his break from competitive cycling than Coghlan did from running. But Lance ran more than he biked, so his cycling-specific muscles were not getting much of a workout for three years. My hunch is that Lance will be significantly stronger in 2010, but still not on the level of Contador or Schleck, both of whom are likely to be stronger because they're still maturing.

[paczki]

All these Bruyneel/Armstrong mafia posts and not one has addressed the question of why each and every Astana member of consequence, young and old, has of their own free will chosen to continue working with Johan and riding for Lance.
If you want to call it a Mafia, be honest and call it a Bruyneel/Lance/Kloden/Horner/Leipheimer/Brajkovic/Chechu/Muravyev/Paulinho/Popo/Rast/Zubeldia/ Eki Mafia.
At some point you have ask where these claims of "team orders" originated. We're rattling them off as if they were fact, rather than hysterical sour grapes born in internet forums. At some point you have to see there came a point well before the Tour ended when Lance and Johan stated outright that Contador was the strongest and the team was working for him.
At some point you have to ask whether it's plausible that Contador stands alone-righteous and blame-free, while the rest of the team is to be labeled a "Mafia", who were directed by a man who's won 10 Grand Tours in plot to throw away the Tour out of spite.
I'm guessing some people have "Going Rogue" on their Christmas list.


Uh, at some point you have to ask what the riders saw as better for their future -- one more year on a Kazakh team rife with problems before Contador certainly left, or an open-ended future on a well-funded American team. I doubt the choice for many had to do with Contador vs. Bruyneel/Armstrong. It was a rational choice about their futures.

[Rueda Tropical]

All these Bruyneel/Armstrong mafia posts and not one has addressed the question of why each and every Astana member of consequence, young and old, has of their own free will chosen to continue working with Johan and riding for Lance.

It's not a mafia it's just business. Kastana was made up of a lot of Lance's old team. No one including Contador can bring in the money, sponsors and media attention that Lance can. If I'm Levi or one of the other riders thats had success with Lance why wouldn't I jump at the chance to join his organization. What did Contador have to offer money or contracts wise?

Contador was the fly in the ointment of launching the new Armstrong team off a win at the Tour and the media rocket fuel and $$$$$ that would have meant. It was in most of the teams and the DS's interest to see the new boss win. It doesn't take a conspiracy theory to follow the money and see that the actors in the Astana soap opera where each doing what was in there own interest.

Good for the new shack riders that they have a better place to go then Astana. Good for Contador that he won the Tour. Considering Contador is such a dope according to most of what I read online and Armstrong/Bruyneel are strategic geniuses wonder how that happened?

[dumbod]

The last guy to truly win the tour without a fabulous team was GL in 89. I think the tour has evolved since 89, and I am not sure it is even possible.

Technically true but Landis finished first with a terrible team.

[paczki]

Considering Contador is such a dope according to most of what I read online and Armstrong/Bruyneel are strategic geniuses wonder how that happened?

:D

[1centaur]

the other big variable in '10 is the pave. though it's less than 15km, just ask mayo how pave can f-up your race.

Just for the record, though you probably know this the pez site's said it wrong twice, Mayo fell BEFORE the pave on a wide open flat road in the nervous rush to get to the pave near the front (he was not there). I suspect all of Spain learned the lesson about getting to the pave towards the front that day.