Question - addressable market for custom frames

[mpetry]

So with the proliferation of framebuilders out there, I'm wondering, what is the total number of custom frames sold per year, approximately.

I'm guessing 1000 to 1200 / year, absolute max. Anybody know ? Any guesses ?

Mark Petry
Bainbridge Island, WA

[Nautilus]

That seems really high, I'm curious as well though.

At $3,000 a frame that would be like three million $ in revenue a yr.

[mandasol]

Is that total produced and sold by all custom builders combined, or possible number sold by a single builder?

Also, what constitutes custom and who draws the line? Most frame builder's have stock sizes, but even with those can do things like braze ons or extended head tubes. Does just offering custom paint count? Are you talking about custom as in made to measure frames only? What about stock sizes but only produced when ordered by a customer?

What's the reason for the question? Are you trying to gauge the size of the custom frame market and if can support all the frame builders?

[zap]

Custom frame meaning custom geo (not like Trek 1 paint), in the US, my guess would be greater than 10,000 units/year.

How much more?

[mpetry]

I'm interested in "about" how many custom frames get sold per year. Of course the top line builders have waiting lists. I'm not sure if I'd count Serotta - maybe - they certainly are a custom builder.

My question came from the "handmade bike shows" and thinking about all the builders getting into the market, which I think is saturated.

I'm guessing it's no more than about 1000-1200, absolute max, aggregate across all builders.

what do you think ?

Mark Petry
Bainbridge Island, WA

[zap]

I'm not sure if I'd count Serotta - maybe - they certainly are a custom builder.


Mark Petry
Bainbridge Island, WA

Why not Serotta.

[Nautilus]

Ok, I though you were talking about the average frame builder.
Your estimate is about that I'd guess for total boutique builders.

[MattTuck]

Well, this reminds me of a management consulting case interview question, lol. It is not a pleasant memory.

My best guess is that there 7,500 - 10,000 custom frames per year.

I arrive at that by taking the able bodied people of the US, Canada, Europe and Japan at ~300,000,000. Of those, I figure 1/2 of 1% of them are cycling enthusiasts. I then make the estimation that about 1/2 of 1% of cycling enthusiasts end up buying a custom bike in any given year. So... .5% of .5% of 300 Million is 7,500.

Another way to estimate it is: There are about 150,000 dentists in the US, figure 1/3 of them play golf, 1/3 of them sail and 1/3 of them bike. That means there are 50,000 potential custom frame buyers, and they don't like old busted frames, so they buy a new one every 5 years.... 50,000 dentists divided by 5 (1/5 of them will be buying a new bike each year). 10,000 custom bikes sold.


;)

[Pete Serotta]

Serotta, Parlee, and a few others are "custom" and build good products.

From here you get into the one person builder such as Kirk, Sachs, Bedford, Goodrich, Strong, Wiegle, etx... these are folks that have worked many years to develop their skills for sizing and for building..

There are many other builders who are learning and who build themselves and even have others build for them for certain products


AS to how many frames are built per year??? Figure to even think about making a meager living, a builder would have to sell at a "minimum" 50 frames per year..... Yeah some don't, for they are still developing their business, but an established builder has to be in the range of frames to make a living (unless it is a hobby and the bills are paid by another job or cash infusion.

A one man shop/builder does not get rich, they have a passion, and love what they do... and hopefully can make a living at it,

[John M]

W
Another way to estimate it is: There are about 150,000 dentists in the US, figure 1/3 of them play golf, 1/3 of them sail and 1/3 of them bike. That means there are 50,000 potential custom frame buyers, and they don't like old busted frames, so they buy a new one every 5 years.... 50,000 dentists divided by 5 (1/5 of them will be buying a new bike each year). 10,000 custom bikes sold.


;)

I thought the dentists and their like rode Trek Madones.... ;)

[EddieBirdsell]

EDIT: Oops, Pete beat me to it, but we're on the same page.

The number would vary greatly by how you define "boutique" or "custom."

What is a "boutique" builder? <50 frames a year? A single fabricator? Three or fewer individuals involved in the fabrication process? What if it's a collaboration between two boutique framebuilders (Speedvagen)? What if it's a stock, off-the-rack Serotta versus a Serotta with custom geometry? What if the seller has a niche product yet contracts out the fabrication overseas or to Waterford (Rivendell)? What about the custom geometry Rivendells?

Just for the sake of argument, let's go with those single fabricators producing <50 frames per year. Your estimate is 1000 to 1200, or 20-24 builders. Heck, there's almost that many in the greater Portland area alone (probably a bit of an exaggeration).

It's a fun thought exercise, but I don't think there's one clear answer.

[djg]

I'm interested in "about" how many custom frames get sold per year. Of course the top line builders have waiting lists. I'm not sure if I'd count Serotta - maybe - they certainly are a custom builder.

My question came from the "handmade bike shows" and thinking about all the builders getting into the market, which I think is saturated.

I'm guessing it's no more than about 1000-1200, absolute max, aggregate across all builders.

what do you think ?

Mark Petry
Bainbridge Island, WA

Well, that seems pretty low, just based on the number of builders I've actually heard of, even if we arbitrarily lop off Serotta, IF, Seven, and Waterford (all of which build custom or made-to-measure bikes). SW has reported building 40-50 Vanilla bikes per year, then a bunch more under the Speedvagen brand (with I gather most of those being somewhat customized stock frames, but about 15 or so really being made-to-measure).

[Ahneida Ride]

Allow me to re frame the question .. ( no pun intended !)

How many bikes are sold at 3K or above ?

I guess at least 20,000.

[echelon_john]

On a tour at Serotta a while ago I seem to remember them mentioning that they could turn out +/-15 frames/day. (Someone here can probably confirm?) So even at 2/3 capacity, at 10 frames/day, that's 50/week, or +/-2500/year.

So just thinking out loud:

I would think if you look at the other U.S. companies that would be comparable to Serotta in terms of overhead/workforce, you'd probably be talking about Seven and IF, right? I would think they would each be in the same ballpark for sales--+/- 2500 units? Anyone else? (not including litespeed/merlin/abc since they don't really do custom)

Then dropping down to the next 'tier' (just in terms of scale) you'd look at Waterford, Moots, and who else? (asking seriously)

After that, I believe you're pretty much talking about small (2-3 person) and really small (1 person) shops. These are probably turning out from 50 (which I agree is probably about the minimum viable output) to 100+ (an example might be Landshark, a one-man operation that is known to have really high output for one dude!)

NAHBS in 2009 had about 75 framebuilders/companies. Take out the Serottas, Sevens and IFs and add in the builders who didn't go to the show and you'd probably see between 75 and 100 builders in the U.S. Maybe take 75/year as an average across all those builders (that's probably high, esp the last couple of years) and you'd get, tops, 7,500 units.

Add that to the big 3-5's +/- 7500, and you get 15K units annually.

Thoughts? How far off am I? Who am I forgetting?

This is interesting to ponder... :beer:

[nahtnoj]

I don't know the number, but it is a lot more than 1,000.

Got a frame re-painted by Spectrum recently. I think Jeff told me they build about 100 a year steel and ti combined. Dario builds around 300 a year. I think I saw in an interview that Richard Sachs builds 5-6 a month, and I'd imagine Dave Kirk works at about the same pace. That's 500.

[Volant]

17,562.

I'll go select tomorrow's PowerBall numbers now.

[Ahneida Ride]

15,000 high(er) end frames is not a bad estimate.

Throw in the pricey Treks and the number exceeds 20,000 I'd bet.

[echelon_john]

ahneida---absolutely! if you added in high end trek, cervelo, and all the other high-zoot triathlon stuff you'd easily get over 20K. Probably over 30 or 40K. The St. Anthony's triathlon in FL gets a couple of thousand people and that's just one event.

i wonder if BRAIN has any metrics broken down by price?

[Blue Jays]

Uncertain of actual unit volume, yet total market value for custom frames and components is $2.3 trillion dollars. This is for all equipment except pedals.

[SamIAm]

You might try getting at it by selecting the smaller universe of bike painters. I would think that most custom frames (excepting Serotta, IF, Seven etc.) go through a relatively small universe of painters. (JB, Spectrum Powderworks, Keith Anderson etc.), but I guess some Ti and Carbon bikes don't get painted.

[KJMUNC]

Echelon_John has the right approach for bottom-up estimation:

Segment the known builders into three buckets and make some assumptions on production quantities and average sales price. Peanut-butter that to all the others in that respective segment and you're probably surprisingly close.

+/- 15k units @ with a range of $2,000-$4,000 per frame puts you in the $30-60M range. Seems like a big number until you de-compose it: If you assume the big 3 drive 50% of the volume, that's $5M-$10M in sales for each. The other +/- 100 builders in the US are left with $15M-$30M and around $150-$350k in addressable spend. Given Sachs, Kirk and others are making ~50 units per year and charging $3k-$4k per frame, that puts them well within that range for total annual sales.

The numbers are clearly not accurate but I'd bet they're directionally accurate and close enough for gub'ment work.

[echelon_john]

Hi Blue Jay,
Where do you get the $2.3 trillion stat? Seems like it might be, (cough) a little high for the custom market?

Sure it wasn't today's addition to the federal deficit!? ;)

Love to know what's behind that #!

JC

[Blue Jays]

Where do you get the $2.3 trillion stat? Seems like it might be, (cough) a little high for the custom market? Sure it wasn't today's addition to the federal deficit!? ;)
Love to know what's behind that #!It's Top Secret financial analysis.
Well, that, and a bunch of beers, too! ;) :banana:

[goonster]

Dario builds around 300 a year.
Really? By himself? With all that painting he does?

This is like the "how many piano tuners in Chicago" question that is routinely asked of freshmen engineering students.

Let us define as "custom" any bike that is made to measure, by hand, for an individual customer. Production can be by a solo artisan, or a larger shop like Waterford, Serotta or IF.

A frame builder once told me he makes roughly two bikes per week, which is roughly in line with e-Richie's number of 6 per month, and let us normalize to 100 bikes per year.

Let's take an order-of-magnitude number of 100 builders. I can probably name at least have that number personally, and we'll say the rest comes from the guys who toil in honorable anonymity at bigger shops, and from foreign builders like Dario.

= 10,000 frames per year at 100% capacity.

I also like SamIAm's approach of looking at the painters, which represent a critical path bottleneck for a certain segment of the market. However, I suspect the market is diversifying in this regard, and relying less on a limited number of top painters, e.g. Curt G. and Bilenky have moved painting in-house recently.

[nahtnoj]

Really? By himself? With all that painting he does?



I think his is a two man shop, and perhaps Dario was a bad example because he does stock sizes and tig welds, but it was a number I read in an interview.

We are leaving custom MTB's out of the discussion, no?

[Kirk Pacenti]

Really? By himself? With all that painting he does?

This is like the "how many piano tuners in Chicago" question that is routinely asked of freshmen engineering students.

Let us define as "custom" any bike that is made to measure, by hand, for an individual customer. Production can be by a solo artisan, or a larger shop like Waterford, Serotta or IF.

A frame builder once told me he makes roughly two bikes per week, which is roughly in line with e-Richie's number of 6 per month, and let us normalize to 100 bikes per year.

Let's take an order-of-magnitude number of 100 builders. I can probably name at least have that number personally, and we'll say the rest comes from the guys who toil in honorable anonymity at bigger shops, and from foreign builders like Dario.

= 10,000 frames per year at 100% capacity.

I also like SamIAm's approach of looking at the painters, which represent a critical path bottleneck for a certain segment of the market. However, I suspect the market is diversifying in this regard, and relying less on a limited number of top painters, e.g. Curt G. and Bilenky have moved painting in-house recently.


Imo, this is figure much too high. 100 per year / 2 per week assumes they are actually building all year long. My educated guess is that the best guys (1 man shops) out there making a full time living at framebuilding are only producing 30-50 frames per year. Fwiw, I figure 30 is the absolute minimum, and 50 is really cranking... 40 would be a good number to work with.

Of course my primary customer is only building lugged bikes, but even if you multiplied by 2 or 3 to account for tig / fillet / aluminum / ti / carbon etc. you'd still be well below 2,000 frames. I have always estimated the total "custom" market (again, 1 man shops) at 1,500 frames per year. When you start factoring in companies like Serotta, Seven, IF, Moots, Litespeed you can easily reach figures in the 10K+ range.

Cheers,

KP

[palincss]

My question came from the "handmade bike shows" and thinking about all the builders getting into the market, which I think is saturated.


With some builders' queues up to 5 years long, it's hard to see how the market is saturated.

[mpetry]

I'm in agreement with Kirk's analysis, depending on how you define "custom" the total market for one - off, hand fabricated, made to order frames is in the range of 1500-2000 per year.

And I do think the market is saturated! Even tho there are some well known top line builders that have a 5 year backlog (Vanilla, Sachs, Weigle, some others) by saturated I mean that the market is very difficult for new builders, which have to build a reputation, establish a brand, and differentiate their offering from those builders already out there.

I would also argue that most people who might want a custom frame already have one! I have 2 and don't see ordering another anytime soon.

Mark Petry
Bainbridge Island, WA

[goonster]

I would also argue that most people who might want a custom frame already have one!
But there are also folks who order one every other year, or so. Almost every framebuilder has customers like that, no?

[palincss]

I'm in agreement with Kirk's analysis, depending on how you define "custom" the total market for one - off, hand fabricated, made to order frames is in the range of 1500-2000 per year.

And I do think the market is saturated! Even tho there are some well known top line builders that have a 5 year backlog (Vanilla, Sachs, Weigle, some others) by saturated I mean that the market is very difficult for new builders, which have to build a reputation, establish a brand, and differentiate their offering from those builders already out there.


But that isn't what "market saturation" means. See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_saturation

Sure it's difficult for new builders to develop a reputation. But, let me tell you a little story. A couple of years ago I was riding down the Mall in front of the National Gallery of Art East Building and spotted a guy riding a touring Vanilla. I noticed, we chatted. He'd recently moved to DC from PDX, and expressed amazement that I knew the builder. He'd had the bike a couple of years, got it from an unknown Portland builder. A few years later and everyone knows Vanilla.

Five years ago, Curt Goodrich was known only to Rivendell fans, as one of the two builders who did the Riv customs. Five years ago, Kelly Bedford was known only to Serotta insiders. Five years ago, few knew Tony Pereira. I think it's safe to say they're a lot better known now as top tier builders in their own right.

Impossible for new talent to get recognized? I don't believe it.


I would also argue that most people who might want a custom frame already have one! I have 2 and don't see ordering another anytime soon.

Mark Petry
Bainbridge Island, WA

If everyone who wanted one already had one, that would indeed be saturation. But I doubt highly that's the case. In any event, the fact that you have two hardly counts as evidence in the matter. We could multiply you by 20 and you still wouldn't equal dbrk.

[Kirk Pacenti]

With some builders' queues up to 5 years long, it's hard to see how the market is saturated.

Fwiw, and strictly speaking from my own pov, the long waiting list is by and large, marketing. It allows a builder work at a sustainable pace and cultivate a "lifestyle". It also helps him to build and keep the mystique of the "Artisan Builder" and his brand going strong. It has the added benefit of giving the customer a feeling of being a part of something "exclusive". I am not knocking it; I see it as a win-win for everyone involved.

But when you're only building 40 frames / bikes a year it's pretty easy to rack up a multi-year waiting list. Not to discount what it takes to actually accrue that many orders, but I think "5 years" is intentionally meant to sound much more impressive than "I have 200 frames in the queue". Put another way; take an order for the 41st frame, and poof, you've got a 2 year waiting list.

On the flip side there are guys working today that could build you a frame as good as or better than any builder with a 5 year waiting list in just 3 or 4 weeks. The fact that you could get the bike that quickly almost works against those buildes imo.


ymmv,

KP

[Joellogicman]

Impossible for new talent to get recognized? I don't believe it.

Few outside of Cleveland knew Dan Polito of Cicli Polito until he won best of show at this NAHBS 2009.

[fiamme red]

I'm wonder how many frames John Slawta builds (and paints) a year.

[KeithNYC]

Fwiw, and strictly speaking from my own pov, the long waiting list is by and large, marketing. It allows a builder work at a sustainable pace and cultivate a "lifestyle". It also helps him to build and keep the mystique of the "Artisan Builder" and his brand going strong. It has the added benefit of giving the customer a feeling of being a part of something "exclusive". I am not knocking it; I see it as a win-win for everyone involved.

But when you're only building 40 frames / bikes a year it's pretty easy to rack up a multi-year waiting list. Not to discount what it takes to actually accrue that many orders, but I think "5 years" is intentionally meant to sound much more impressive than "I have 200 frames in the queue". Put another way; take an order for the 41st frame, and poof, you've got a 2 year waiting list.

On the flip side there are guys working today that could build you a frame as good as or better than any builder with a 5 year waiting list in just 3 or 4 weeks. The fact that you could get the bike that quickly almost works against those buildes imo.


ymmv,

KP

Interesting but I'm not so sure. Of course they all use marketing to a degree and take advantage of the buzz that comes from having a wait list but I think it's always going to be the customer who wants to know when his/her frame will arrive. if I call Dave Kirk and he says "thanks for your order, you're # 63 in the queue"- that means nothing to me- I want to know how long till I get to ride it- he then says "15 months" or whatever. That and message boards like this build the mystique- "did you cats know it takes 4 years to get a Weigle? Wow! He must be really good!" etc...

[Kirk Pacenti]

Of course they all use marketing to a degree and take advantage of the buzz that comes from having a wait list but I think it's always going to be the customer who wants to know when his/her frame will arrive. if I call Dave Kirk and he says "thanks for your order, you're # 63 in the queue"- that means nothing to me- I want to know how long till I get to ride it- he then says "15 months" or whatever. That and message boards like this build the mystique- "did you cats know it takes 4 years to get a Weigle? Wow! He must be really good!" etc...

So we agree then?

[palincss]

Few outside of Cleveland knew Dan Polito of Cicli Polito until he won best of show at this NAHBS 2009.

And now...? I completely agree, NAHBS is a wonderful place for builders to get their work noticed. I think it's been good for everyone, a real breath of fresh air compared to what you see in your LBS.

I don't even look at the bikes in the LBS any more - there's nothing there I'm even vaguely interested in, just row after row of MTBs, hybrids and carbon racing bikes. I can spend hours looking at NAHBS photos, and just loved the shows at the Cirque.

[paczki]

Fwiw, and strictly speaking from my own pov, the long waiting list is by and large, marketing. It allows a builder work at a sustainable pace and cultivate a "lifestyle". It also helps him to build and keep the mystique of the "Artisan Builder" and his brand going strong. It has the added benefit of giving the customer a feeling of being a part of something "exclusive". I am not knocking it; I see it as a win-win for everyone involved.

But when you're only building 40 frames / bikes a year it's pretty easy to rack up a multi-year waiting list. Not to discount what it takes to actually accrue that many orders, but I think "5 years" is intentionally meant to sound much more impressive than "I have 200 frames in the queue". Put another way; take an order for the 41st frame, and poof, you've got a 2 year waiting list.

On the flip side there are guys working today that could build you a frame as good as or better than any builder with a 5 year waiting list in just 3 or 4 weeks. The fact that you could get the bike that quickly almost works against those buildes imo.


ymmv,

KP

Well said.

[BengeBoy]

I have the impression that a lot of the newer/younger builders who have shown up at the shows listed above make a lot fewer than the 50/year or 100/year assumed.

Just to calibrate some of the estimates above, Hampsten Cycles builds about 50 frames/year, according to this interview:

http://redkiteprayer.com/?p=1020

I think a lot of the new builders one meets and hears about build fewer than that. Some - a lot fewer.

[fiamme red]

Just to calibrate some of the estimates above, Hampsten Cycles builds about 50 frames/year, according to this interview:

http://redkiteprayer.com/?p=1020But only 12 in house; the rest are contracted out. This is a different business model from the one-man shop.

[malcolm]

Wait list aside I think it has something to do with the persona of the builder. Sachs long and now closed list probably helps in marketing but I think Richard's persona is what most people buy for. They want a little piece of him, what they think he is about or what he stands for.

I've got two Kirks because I like Dave Kirk simple as that. Well maybe not that simple it helps that he does great work with awesome Joe Bell paint, but I never deluded myself into thinking someone couldn't build me as good a bike faster. I wanted the Kirk because my perception (I've never met him) of Dave. Years of watching him interact on this site and others I feel like I know him and it means something to me that he listened to what I said and then start to finish made something for me working alone in a shop at his house. I like him, I like his wife and I love my bikes.

I've also got a couple of zancs and it is similar but different with Mike. I just like the guy and for what it is worth the zancs took way longer than the kirk.

[KeithNYC]

So we agree then?

:) We do.

Splitting hairs here but I just think the cache of a long wait list is built a little more from customers on message boards than from builders putting out that message themselves.

:beer:

[David Kirk]

The whole idea that a builder would pad his wait list or present it as longer than it is in actuality is just ludicrous. My wait is just about a year. That is with me working full time and going at it hard. If I wanted to make myself look cool by having a false wait list making it seem that I'm so popular that there are a few hundred people in line for one of my bikes that's one thing. But what I am I going to do for the next 4 years aside from feel cool. I'll have nothing to build and no income. This doesn't seem like a get rich scheme to me.

The simple fact of the matter is there are a few guys out there with a few hundred orders on hand and that's just the way it is. The perception that this is cool is one brought on by the guy who waited 5 years, not the builder. The builder just stand at the bench and tries to make the 5 year wait a 4 year wait and so on.

Dave

[KeithNYC]

:beer:

[sg8357]

De Re; wait lists, if a fellow has a multi year wait list, why not get on it ?

I send them a bit of money, I don't have to figure out what I want the bike
to be or what color, easy. If I buy a bike from X, who delivers in a few months,
that is color, build kit and design right now, much harder decision.

Then there are the builders I'd like a bike from but have to think of something
interesting enough to engage them, since they only build if you can think of
something really interesting.

[rphetteplace]

.....

[rphetteplace]

Just out of curiousity of what everyone thinks. Can anyone name the top five US single man bike builders by production?

[Kirk Pacenti]

Just out of curiousity of what everyone thinks. Can anyone name the top five US single man bike builders by production?

Do you mean by volume?

[sg8357]

Just out of curiousity of what everyone thinks. Can anyone name the top five US single man bike builders by production?

John Slawta would build the most, I can think of several excellent long time builders who build few new frames, but paint and restore many per year.

[Dazza]

The whole idea that a builder would pad his wait list or present it as longer than it is in actuality is just ludicrous. My wait is just about a year. That is with me working full time and going at it hard. If I wanted to make myself look cool by having a false wait list making it seem that I'm so popular that there are a few hundred people in line for one of my bikes that's one thing. But what I am I going to do for the next 4 years aside from feel cool. I'll have nothing to build and no income. This doesn't seem like a get rich scheme to me.

The simple fact of the matter is there are a few guys out there with a few hundred orders on hand and that's just the way it is. The perception that this is cool is one brought on by the guy who waited 5 years, not the builder. The builder just stand at the bench and tries to make the 5 year wait a 4 year wait and so on.

Dave

I am with Dave on this
it is nonsense to think a builder sits on a que of orders.
I ask for many to think and apply some common sense to this.
Sitting on the small $ amount of deposits is not going to gain much % interest.
If one does sit on deposits, one will be going backwards very quickly as the meter keeps ticking on costs.
Unless one has about $2,000,000 worth of deposits sitting in the bank earning interest, that is about 5000 x $400 deposits in the que.
Then think that 5000 orders x $1000 profit per frame when the invoices are written and number becomes $5,000,000 profit.
This also applies to the independent frame builder.
The gain is when the frame/bike is payed for and on the truck to the client.
Earning an encome means writting invoices
writting invoices means toil at the bench and onto the next order and onto the next one and ...........................
Frame builders and their families have to eat and pay for their roof just like the rest.
Those who post postulate the que padding mystic may be trying to sound knowledgable but it is just as likly they have very little business sense in the real world.

[Kirk Pacenti]

who suggested builders were padding their wait list?

[goonster]

it is nonsense to think a builder sits on a que of orders.

Kirk did not suggest that builders have fake wait lists, he's saying that the wait lists have a marketing value in and of themselves, and I believe it!

After all, the builder has some control over the length of that list. If he thinks it's too long, he can always raise prices.

The wait list implies an endorsement. One hundred people think this guy is so good that his frames are worth a two year wait!

All other things being equal, some folks want to have a bike in two weeks, and others want the bike that is hardest to get.

[Dazza]

it was replying to Dave Kirk's points
which strikes a cord in my world
He used the word "Pad"
Some would think builders say "five year que"
and all the frames are being delivered in one year from time of deposit.

[gdw]

I don't know whether padding the que occurs in the custom frame building world but it is a very common sales tactic in the business world. Telling a prospect that a product will be available in x number of days, weeks, etc knowing that you can actually ship it sooner is an old tactic. The client feels that he needs to commit now since the wait will only be longer if they delay. The end result, if the client doesn't look elsewhere, is that the supplier gets the sale now and has the cash to pay his bills, order supplies, etc and is a hero when he actually delivers the product ahead of schedule.

[round]

On the flip side there are guys working today that could build you a frame as good as or better than any builder with a 5 year waiting list in just 3 or 4 weeks. The fact that you could get the bike that quickly almost works against those buildes imo.


ymmv,

KP
ciao Kirk
I'd be curious to know what are the names of builders with 5 year W/L and the names of the guys that can build a frame as good or better .
I'd be curious to know what parameters you used to say this.
Dario Pegoretti

[54ny77]

wait list, schmait list.

say you want dinner res. at 7:30, but the next table is available at 9:00. take the 9. now it's a 2 hour wait. go drink in the meantime!

[nicrump]

who suggested builders were padding their wait list?

you did. calling a long wait "marketing" suggests the wait is made up. if the wait is real then it is what it is. that's not marketing, that's reality.

fwiw, i loose sales because of a silly 8 month wait. if i could get em out the door faster without cutting corners, i'd take the $$ jack. seems to be a carbon phenomena, S M or L import ships tomorrow and that's good enough for most folks i guess.

[1centaur]

Unless one has about $2,000,000 worth of deposits sitting in the bank earning interest, that is about 5000 x $400 deposits in the queue.


Missed a zero. Now THAT's a lot of waiting customers!

[jlwdm]

The joys of the internet. It is amazing how a post can say one thing, it is interpreted as something probably not intended and then gets a whole new life of its own.

Settle down.

Jeff

[c-record]

I also love how I can observe some great comments made by numerous people with tremendous experience and builders I really respect. :)

[rphetteplace]

Do you mean by volume?

yes. frames built annually.

[DarrenCT]

ciao Kirk
I'd be curious to know what are the names of builders with 5 year W/L and the names of the guys that can build a frame as good or better .
I'd be curious to know what parameters you used to say this.
Dario Pegoretti

looks like pacenti climbed into a hole.

muhahaha

[cadence90]

looks like pacenti climbed into a hole.

muhahaha
I don't think so.

I certainly won't name any names, but I'd say there are at least several answers to round's question, with at least a couple of the answers glaringly obvious to frequenters of this board, one (or two) of them in fact ironically so.

[Kirk Pacenti]

looks like pacenti climbed into a hole.

muhahaha


Nah, I was just hoping we could do better than 5 (http://www.velocipedesalon.com/forum/showpost.php?p=138826&postcount=1) out of 8 (http://framebuilders.org/) .

Cheers,

KP

[WadePatton]

well, i'm late again, but do find the topic interesting.

trying to nail down production numbers depends on two things: defining the product, and then gathering the data applicable.

the former posts about using painters for information is a good idea. then you have to talk to all the builders who paint their own and guesstimate all those who use "unknown" painters.

another approach or method of correlation would be to check with the suppliers who move the most tubes. joe, hank, lon, etc. you can't just ask them how many customers they have because that would include hobbyist. you can't just add those numbers together either, because many buy from more than one source. but it'd be a good solid start. you could get a good idea of the volume of tubes sold then allow for hobbyist and waste.

great subject for someone to do a research paper on...and report their findings yo.

also on estimating production by x frames per week--don't forget to deduct the weeks that many high-profile builders give up for nahbs, other shows/events, repair/resto jobs, and some good, old-fashioned vacation breaks. problem is that that's going to vary widely as the herd of cats is diverse.

i've tried making a simple complete _list_ of builders a time or two. not easy.