OT: What's with airfares?

[Chief]

On Jan 5 I booked with Delta flights from SAT to ATL and return at a cost of $319. Today I checked Delta again and the cost for the exact same flights is $169. Needless to say I called Delta to determine what the story was. I talked with the representative and, ultimately, his supervisor and both said all they could do was to cancel my nonrefundable ticket and rebook me, but the cancellation fee was $150 so it a wash. I told them that I thought that Delta was dishonest and that I would never travel Delta again all to no avail. :argue:

Is there a best time for getting the cheapest rate or is it simply crap shoot. It used to be the earlier the better, but that obviously no longer holds. :crap:

[regularguy412]

Orbitz has an ad running right now that says: 'If you book your fare and then the fare becomes lower, we'll refund you the difference." I've used Orbitz before, tho a long time ago, but I had good experiences. Might be worth the effort to look into it. The US airlines don't seem to be in much of a position to haggle, right now. Anything that runs off business is not good for them.

Mike in AR:beer:

[fierte_poser]

Sounds like standard operating procedure to me. They are just trying to fill seats.

Supply and demand of seats changes in the months and weeks leading up to the actual flight date.

I blame the internet. More specifically, I blame Al Gore.

[false_Aest]

I blame the internet.

Homme, there's more than one to blame!

[cdimattio]

I told them that I thought that Delta was dishonest

No offense intended, but I am not sure Delta was dishonest. There seems to be ample competition in the airline industry and there are rapid responses to supply and demand. There is no indication any airline is making obscene profits (it really does seem quite the contrary). From one perspective, you and Delta entered into a contractural agreement for transport with specified terms at a price that was mututally agreeable. The $150 change fee was part of that same contract.

The expectations on a price reduction seem somewhat one sided. If market prices rose, Delta has no recourse to raise the fare.



Is there a best time for getting the cheapest rate or is it simply crap shoot.

I have had good luck using Farecast. It offers a historical perspective and trend on fares along with a fairly accurate prediction of 7 day fare expectations.

[Chief]

No offense intended, but I am not sure Delta was dishonest. There seems to be ample competition in the airline industry and there are rapid responses to supply and demand. There is no indication any airline is making obscene profits (it really does seem quite the contrary). From one perspective, you and Delta entered into a contractural agreement for transport with specified terms at a price that was mututally agreeable. The $150 change fee was part of that same contract.

The expectations on a price reduction seem somewhat one sided. If market prices rose, Delta has no recourse to raise the fare.




I have had good luck using Farecast. It offers a historical perspective and trend on fares along with a fairly accurate prediction of 7 day fare expectations.

Ya know, you're correct!

[rounder]

Riding on a plane is not the same as going to the movies. Everyone pays different prices for various reasons. Some people pay for business class (whatever that means), others fly economy, some pay extra for refundable tickets, some buy tix oline, some buy using discounts, etc. It is sorta like a crapshoot.

The goal is to arrive safely at your intended destination with a minimal amount of unscheduled delays and humiliation.

[RonW87]

I don't think the economy would run very well if we could get our money back whenever the price of a product dropped after we purchased it.

[Louis]

I don't think too many people would want to go back to the bad old days of regulation, but you never know.

As far as the pricing goes, folks expect some degree of fairness. As described I can see how someone would be unhappy with the airline.

Here's another example: Can a hospital / tow truck driver / LBS charge a rich guy ten times what it charges a less rich person for the same emergency service? In a "free market rules" scenario, sure, anything goes. However, for the same service the part of you that prefers fairness rebels.

Louis

[rwsaunders]

You can't drive there and back for either fare so consider it a win.

[Ken Robb]

the lousy economy is keeping many non-business travelrs home so the airlines have even more vacant seats during this normally slow time of year than usual so there are many sales now. Nothing is more perishable than an empty seat or hotel room.

An expert on TV yesterday said Monday night through Tuesday morning is when many cheap fares are posted at airline sites and they are often not posted anywhere else like Orbitz, et. al.

[saab2000]

I don't think too many people would want to go back to the bad old days of regulation, but you never know.



I work in the business and would like to see at least some partical re-regulation.

The airlines provide terrible service and sometimes at a very high price.

Ironically, the best run airline in the US is the one that was born out of de-regulation: Southwest.

But an example of what is screwed up. La Guardia is a slot controlled airport. Airlines own rights to slot times for XXX departures per day. How they use those slots is basically up to the airline. Well, I work under the umbrella of US Airways and they own a lot of slots at LGA. In order to not lose those slots they must use them. So US airways operates an awful lot of flights right now in and out of LGA that are nearly empty. If they stop operating those flights they will lose their slot rights. But operating nearly empty airplanes doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.

This industry is ridiculous and some of the things need to be changed IMHO. I am not a business expert and don't pretend to be one. But when an airline is sort of forced into operating empty flights something is wrong. It is extremely wasteful.

[93legendti]

I work in the business and would like to see at least some partical re-regulation.

The airlines provide terrible service and sometimes at a very high price.

Ironically, the best run airline in the US is the one that was born out of de-regulation: Southwest.

But an example of what is screwed up. La Guardia is a slot controlled airport. Airlines own rights to slot times for XXX departures per day. How they use those slots is basically up to the airline. Well, I work under the umbrella of US Airways and they own a lot of slots at LGA. In order to not lose those slots they must use them. So US airways operates an awful lot of flights right now in and out of LGA that are nearly empty. If they stop operating those flights they will lose their slot rights. But operating nearly empty airplanes doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.

This industry is ridiculous and some of the things need to be changed IMHO. I am not a business expert and don't pretend to be one. But when an airline is sort of forced into operating empty flights something is wrong. It is extremely wasteful.
Maybe US Air should give up the slots?

[paulh]

I just heard of a fare from Minneapolis to Maui for $489 including taxes and fees(except luggage and the WHOLE can of pop). Not bad.... plus it's been -20 here in Minnesota. I'm tempted.

Also, does anyone know what the airlines' profits(if any) for the 4th quarter. Unless they were locked into long term jet fuel contracts entered into in summer, they must have seen major fuel cost savings and are able to pass some of that on to the consumer. I paid $3.98 per gallon for auto fuel in August. Around New Year's I paid $1.52. That's a major savings for me.

I hope they've all been profitable the last quarter. It would show signs of at least some segments of the economy making some sort of recovery. And they could pay Saab more money.

Of cours fuel could be back up this summer to where it was last summer.

[saab2000]

Maybe US Air should give up the slots?

Maybe. Or maybe the airport authority (NY Port Authority) could have a more flexible way of dealing with this.

I don't claim to have the answer to the issue. Just that the current model seems very imperfect.

Maybe allow airlines who control slots to allow them to lie 'dormant' for a period of time. Or re-auction/re-allocate them every year.

Like I said, this is beyond my area of expertise except to say that flying empty airplanes seems to benefit nobody, except me because it keeps me working.

The airline industry is one messed up business!

[saab2000]

I just heard of a fare from Minneapolis to Maui for $489 including taxes and fees(except luggage and the WHOLE can of pop). Not bad.... plus it's been -20 here in Minnesota. I'm tempted.

Also, does anyone know what the airlines' profits(if any) for the 4th quarter. Unless they were locked into long term jet fuel contracts entered into in summer, they must have seen major fuel cost savings and are able to pass some of that on to the consumer. I paid $3.98 per gallon for auto fuel in August. Around New Year's I paid $1.52. That's a major savings for me.

I hope they've all been profitable the last quarter. It would show signs of at least some segments of the economy making some sort of recovery. And they could pay Saab more money.

Of cours fuel could be back up this summer to where it was last summer.

The issue of fuel savings is complex. Many did buy into fuel contracts at high prices because of fear that the prices were going to go higher yet. I assume that now they are hedging as much as they can with the low prices.

The lower prices are right now helping or will in the future.

The challenge now is that the passengers are simply now there. With the economy in the dumps people and businesses are being frugal. An awful lot of travel is discretionary and folks are staying home.

I would not be surprised to see more big changes in the business as far as the possible failure of an airline or two (contract/regional airline Mesa is in the worst shape).

But the drop in fuel prices is a source of relief in the business, that's for certain. But if the passengers (revenue) aren't there then the drop in expenses doesn't help that much.

We'll see! For now, I still have a job.

[tele]

In my recent experience, Farecast.com is unreliable. I had used it to track flights from Hartford to Fort Lauderale and ths site said there was an 80% chance the price was going to go up. I booked tickets for like $330 each. The next day the tickets went DOWN to $250 each. Luckliy Delta lets you cancel within 24 hours and then I could rebook. I have read that ticket prices flucuate based on day of the week, with Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursdays as lower than other days.
I am not sure how much rhyme or reason there is in any of this.

[michael white]

bought a ticket to London yesterday . . . three hundred dollars less than last year. Nice time to travel.

[DukeHorn]

I burned $1600 going to Cairo from San Francisco and returning from Amman Jordan. Expensive but going to Petra and Wadi Rum was worth every penny.

[thwart]

From a distance, it seems that de-regulation has led to some (not all) people saving a bunch of money on airfare at the cost of good service and also the loss of 'predictability'---in terms of airline business continuity and consistency.

[Ahneida Ride]

option contracts on tickets ?

[Hardlyrob]

I travel all the time for business - typically three days a week - I'm, a consultant, and our clients want to see me in person.

I really doubt the airlines made any money in the fourth quarter for a bunch of reasons. First, it is usually difficult to make money when commodity prices (fuel in this case) are coming down - you probably didn't raise prices fast enough when they were going up, and consumers expect an instant price reduction when the commodity price falls. In my world (food manufacturing and restaurants) nobody was able to keep up when prices were rising, and some have just caught up as the prices come down - none of my clients were able to make money on the rising commodity costs, most like Tyson and Pilgrim's Pride got slammed.

The second reason I think the airlines are in serious trouble is that there are no passengers. Yesterday I went to Chicago for the day - 8AM flight from Boston to Chicago should be jammed - there were 32 people on the flight. There is little trouble with parking at Logan - there just aren't the passengers. Yes I know these are anecdotes and the plural of anecdote isn't data - but still...

Finally the airlines use a "yield management" pricing process - dynamic pricing of seats on specific flights based on how full the flight is. That's why prices on nearly sold out flights will change during the two minutes you are talking to your travel agent or the airline. They also monitor pricing on similar flights by competition - if Southwest has a flight to the same destination at about the same time, the price on the legacy carrier will be lower than at other times.

The pricing thing is a problem, because there always seems to be an idiot airline that will say "sure I'll fly you from New York to Frankfurt for $399 - even though that is below my cots, because I want the sale and to fill the seat!"

Observations of a customer - FWIW

Rob

[csm]

I travel a good bit for work also; usually 2 wks/month and trips in between. I only fly when it is an absolute necessity. I try to schedule trips around driving 300 mi/day to keep me out of airports.
I don't entirely blame the airlines; I think homeland security has done quite a bit of damage to the whole process. it used to be fun to fly, sort of an adventure.
I find I can get more done in the car while driving than I can while sitting on a plane.
there are some deals right now tho heading west that have me thinking of taking a ski trip somewhere out there instead of driving to VT for a wk.

[Ken Robb]

[QUOTE=csm]I find I can get more done in the car while driving than I can while sitting on a plane..[/QUOTE

Gee, that's rather frightening. Are you reading or writing while you drive?

[csm]

no, hands-free phone calls.
and I can wifi when I stop for breaks.