Has the market become saturated?

[William]

Yamaguchi
Mike Zanconato
Richard Sachs
Chris Bull - Circle A Cycles
Peter Mooney
Indy Fab guys
Mike Flanigan - ANT
Tony Peiria
Vanilla
CoMotion
Ira Ryan
Ti Cycles
Brain Marcroft
DeSalvo
P. Weigle
Franklin Frames
Roark
Chris Kvale
Doug Fattic
Curt Goodrich.
Scott Quiring
Serotta
Harry Havnoonian
Bilenky
Spectrum
Quetzal Bicycles
Bill Holland
Ves Mandaric
Russ Denny
Jim Kish.
Andy Gilmour
David Bohm.
Hampsten/Tournesol
Capital
Bill Davidson
Glenn Erickson.
Curtlo
Ira Ryan
Strawberry
Pereira
Ahearne
Brian Baylis
Bill Stevenson
Bob Brown
Dave Anderson
Black Sheep
Primus Mootry
Moots
mariposa
Coho Cycles
Jeff Lyon
Parlee Cycles
steve rex
eisentraut
litton
mikkelsen
potts
sycip
soulcraft
ibis
inglis
DEAN
Nobilette
Anvil
Gangl
Kent Eriksen
slawta/landshark
Carl Strong
David Kirk
Bruce Gordon
SoloVelo
Brent Steelman
Rock Lobster
Waltworks
Zinn
Rivendell
Craig Calfee
Nick Crumpton
Moyer
Hujsak Bicycles
Ted Wojcik
Seven
Hot Tubes
Hans Schneider
Alpine Design
Hairy Gary
Villin Cycle Works
David Cheakas
Oswald
Roland Della Santa
Ves Mandaric
Russ Denny
Dave Moulton
David Ybarolla
K. Bedford Customs
Vendetta
Willits
True Fab
Igleheart
Geek House
Dave Wages
Jonny Cycles
Waterford
ZR Cycles
Groovy Cyclework
El Camino Cycles
Broakland
Leopard
Signal Cycles
Courage
Vertigo
Wes Williams
Columbine Cycle Works
Pegoretti
Kirk Pacenti
Lynskey
LLewellen
Plus more that can and can’t be found listed here… http://www.handmadebicycleshow.com/nahbs2009/Build01.htm

Add to that the more mass produced builders/manufacturers such as…

Trek
Specialized
Giant
Merckx
Bianchi
Time
Look
Felt
Kona
Colnago
DeRosa

Plus many more manufactures and handmade builders from all over the world that aren’t on this list.

Has the market become saturated? A lot of builders have come up through the ranks in recent years and are offering their wares. The internet and a decent economy helped them get their names out there. Prices have also risen accordingly during this time period. Five years ago I would have said you were insane if you told me there would be frames on the market for $7 -8 -9,000…stripped down. Add accordingly for extras. There are lots of options for the buyer out there from handmade & mass produced builders alike. Now with the economy tanking, are we going to see a culling of the group? Will it be that only those that can get lean and produce a good value frame at a lower price point will survive? Sure there will be a few high end niche builders that will try to stay in that group, but even the formerly “recession proof” high end market is taking a beating. A back log of deposits for a few years may insulate for a while but if things don’t turn around soon that could change things.

Look at the used part of the market, some folks are almost having to give away things like Ottrotts and other nice frame/bikes just to get them to move. Lots of competition, a bad market, and consumers who for the most part are afraid to open their wallets and purses too much. I know of a couple well known builders who are scared right now. I feel for them. It’s a tough time and prices are going to have to come down in order to stimulate orders. Who is going to survive, and who will have to move on or get other work?



William

[Bruce K]

William;

In the current economy there is suddenly less disposable income to support anything high end whether it be bikes, cars, audio equipment, etc.

There is likely to be a shakeout in every facet of manufacturing.

I suspect that some builders will see a few slots passed on if they come up in the next few months (unless people saved specifically for the purchase).

Even without the current situation, local love can't support them all as full time operations and I suspect many of those on the list are trying to be more than local.

People like Richard Sachs with large backlogs should be able to ride out the recesssion. I would think folks like Mike Zanconato where the building isn't their only source of income will do OK as well.

After that, it's a cr+pshoot (IMHO).

BK

[William]

William;

In the current economy there is suddenly less disposable income to support anything high end whether it be bikes, cars, audio equipment, etc.

There is likely to be a shakeout in every facet of manufacturing.

I suspect that some builders will see a few slots passed on if they come up in the next few months (unless people saved specifically for the purchase).

Even without the current situation, local love can't support them all as full time operations and I suspect many of those on the list are trying to be more than local.

People like Richard Sachs with large backlogs should be able to ride out the recesssion. I would think folks like Mike Zanconato where the building isn't their only source of income will do OK as well.

After that, it's a cr+pshoot (IMHO).

BK


I would agree with you Bruce, Those builders with a large backlog of deposits, and those that have a well established presence and a decent paying income other than frame building will fare better then the remaining group.

I do feel a key for the others will be the ability to deliver quality product at an affordable price point….affordable to the bulk in the middle of the Bell curve of the aficionado market. But even that is tough to define these days. Those that can't or won't will have a much tougher time surviving.



William

[Hardlyrob]

I will say that the market is not saturated yet. If builders can raise prices - which the majority of them have done in the last year, and if they have a backlog - which I think most do today - then the market isn't saturated.

Keep in mind the custom market in total is a month to month blip for the big manufacturers. There is still a lot of room for the small builder under the radar.

But then again, I'm not in this business, so what do I know.

What are you builders seeing out there? e-Richie? Dave? Curt? Sasha? Dario?

Cheers!

Rob

[Joellogicman]

Mariposa was a one man operation and the builder retired. I am not certain Oswald is still building. He may be.

Then again, there are some other young builders not on the list.

Seems there are a lot of people building. Nevertheless, you go to Nobillette's Rene Herse site and see a wait time of 18 months (usually you want to add a good 6 months to what the builder offers).

Bikes are still a lot less expensive than cars.

[e-RICHIE]

It’s a tough time and prices are going to have to come down in order to stimulate orders.



William



heh atmo?
sell seemingly high-end, yet below-ish par goods at a discount?
that's an even faster path to back to the saftey of the margins.
folks started businesses before they had a clue. that's the only
issue at work here. the tipping point is long overdue atmo.

[93legendti]

heh atmo?
sell seemingly high-end, yet below-ish par goods at a discount?
that's an even faster path to back to the saftey of the margins.
folks started businesses before they had a clue. that's the only
issue at work here. the tipping point is long overdue atmo.
Coach knows all....

[david]

i think that list can be divided into several markets according to, at least, craftsmanship and expertise.

so it would be less than meaningful to say the market is saturated if the market includes the entirety of that list.

my guess is the guys who occupy the top end market will remain busy.

things are probably getting pretty moist lower down.

[Lifelover]

From the very little interaction we are exposed to on forums like this and the ATMO salon, the various frame builders still seem to be on pleasant terms with each other. When they start feeding amoung themselves, you will know that times are bad.

[William]

heh atmo?
sell seemingly high-end, yet below-ish par goods at a discount?
that's an even faster path to back to the saftey of the margins.

folks started businesses before they had a clue. that's the only
issue at work here. the tipping point is long overdue atmo.



So those folks who started a business before they had a clue, and are offering “seemingly high-end, yet below-ish par goods at a discount” are the ones who are most likely to slide off the map when the tipping point occurs? The influx of said builders are pushing it to this point?

I’m just trying to understand where you’re coming from BIG “e”.



William

[Viper]

Y'all know me. Know how I earn a livin'. I'll catch this bird for you, but it ain't gonna be easy. Bad fish. Not like going down the pond chasin' bluegills and tommycods. This shark, swallow you whole. Little shakin', little tenderizin', an' down you go. And we gotta do it quick, that'll bring back your tourists, put all your businesses on a payin' basis. But it's not gonna be pleasant. I value my neck a lot more than three thousand bucks, chief. I'll find him for three, but I'll catch him, and kill him, for ten. But you've gotta make up your minds. If you want to stay alive, then ante up. If you want to play it cheap, be on welfare the whole winter. I don't want no volunteers, I don't want no mates, there's just too many captains on this island. Ten thousand dollars for me by myself. For that you get the head, the tail, the whole damn thing.

:beer:

[e-RICHIE]

So those folks who started a business before they had a clue, and are offering “seemingly high-end, yet below-ish par goods at a discount” are the ones who are most likely to slide off the map when the tipping point occurs? The influx of said builders are pushing it to this point?

I’m just trying to understand where you’re coming from BIG “e”.



William

no - the discounting that you suggest in the OP will only hasten it all for them.
otherwise, i believe you get me atmo.

[William]

i think that list can be divided into several markets according to, at least, craftsmanship and expertise.

so it would be less than meaningful to say the market is saturated if the market includes the entirety of that list.

my guess is the guys who occupy the top end market will remain busy.

things are probably getting pretty moist lower down.

I would think that if most of us here were to rate those on the list we’d get a pretty standard consensus of those placing in the top quarter. But that’s not to say that there aren’t a few gems lower down that we aren’t all aware of.


Just pointing out.


William

[e-RICHIE]

Y'all know me. Know how I earn a livin'. I'll catch this bird for you, but it ain't gonna be easy. Bad fish. Not like going down the pond chasin' bluegills and tommycods. This shark, swallow you whole. Little shakin', little tenderizin', an' down you go. And we gotta do it quick, that'll bring back your tourists, put all your businesses on a payin' basis. But it's not gonna be pleasant. I value my neck a lot more than three thousand bucks, chief. I'll find him for three, but I'll catch him, and kill him, for ten. But you've gotta make up your minds. If you want to stay alive, then ante up. If you want to play it cheap, be on welfare the whole winter. I don't want no volunteers, I don't want no mates, there's just too many captains on this island. Ten thousand dollars for me by myself. For that you get the head, the tail, the whole damn thing.

:beer:


Hooper: Ha, ha - they're all gonna die atmo.

[William]

Y'all know me. Know how I earn a livin'. I'll catch this bird for you, but it ain't gonna be easy. Bad fish. Not like going down the pond chasin' bluegills and tommycods. This shark, swallow you whole. Little shakin', little tenderizin', an' down you go. And we gotta do it quick, that'll bring back your tourists, put all your businesses on a payin' basis. But it's not gonna be pleasant. I value my neck a lot more than three thousand bucks, chief. I'll find him for three, but I'll catch him, and kill him, for ten. But you've gotta make up your minds. If you want to stay alive, then ante up. If you want to play it cheap, be on welfare the whole winter. I don't want no volunteers, I don't want no mates, there's just too many captains on this island. Ten thousand dollars for me by myself. For that you get the head, the tail, the whole damn thing.

:beer:

Is that for the frame and fork? Paint included? The whole damn thing?




William ;) :beer:

[c-record]

Several of the builders are getting ready to close doors or may have already done so. Is Harry Havnoonian still building? He and many others have to be close to hanging it up or are only building a handful of frames a year. I heard somewhere that Kelly(the frame builder not Mr. Bedford-who also builds frames) couldn't find anyone to pass the torch to when he decided to hang up the torch.

There are a lot of new, young builders creating a following though so who knows?

[David Kirk]

I agree with Richard. The current economy will only hasten the demise of some builders.

The builders who have been able to keep their product quality and level of service high while at the same time keeping their expenses low will be fine.

While I wish no one any harm I do believe this sorting has been in the cards for some time now and this economy will just push the point. The best will survive and the average will not. In a way it seems healthy to me.

I suspect that builder list in the OP (which is a good bit longer than it should be as there are many repeats in it once you look closely) came from the Handmade show guide and that that list will be much shorter a year from now. Most of the folks showing bought and paid for their booths before the downturn so they will be there. With the inevitable tightening that started a few months back and will continue over the next months I think the show could be a good bit smaller a year from now and that list will reflect this.

Dave

[rphetteplace]

I think that Richard, Sacha and a couple others are in a market that's recession proof. Their image, expertise, experience have made them a commodity that will not feel the pinch. If either of them chose to reopen their lists they could easily sell their backlog from 5 years from 10 years.

The market that I see as having gotten extremely competitive is what I would consider the next tier in terms of popularity. Not saying they aren't super stud builders, but all of a sudden we've got quite a few options of totally awesome builders feeding the same pool of buyers. I would put Kirk, Bedford, Ellis, Goodrich, and several others in this tier. Not saying that you are getting a better/worse bike than the first tier. These guys are the ones that I would be a bit nervous if I was in this pool. A lot of competition right now.

There are also a TON of builders who live the beatnik lifestyle. They build for the love of the bike/just to be in the industry. It's going to be tough for the next tier up who are in business to compete with this tier imho because the beatniks just aren't interested in making their business profitable.

This is all just my opinion and I hope everybody that puts their heart and soul into welding and brazing bikes a successful year.

Ryan

[William]

no - the discounting that you suggest in the OP will only hasten it all for them.
otherwise, i believe you get me atmo.


I won’t necessarily disagree with you, but keeping prices points at pre-recession/depression levels aren’t a guarantee that you’ll whether the storm either. Unless you have a well established backlog it would seem you should try to entice the customer within financial reason (for the given situation).

I understand where you and DK are coming from...let the cards fall where they may to weed out some whose quality/experiece is sub par....survival of the fittest.


William

[e-RICHIE]

I won’t necessarily disagree with you, but keeping prices points at pre-recession/depression levels aren’t a guarantee that you’ll whether the storm either. Unless you have a well established backlog it would seem you should try to entice the customer within financial reason (for the given situation).

I understand where you and DK are coming from...let the cards fall where they may to weed out some whose quality/experiece is sub par....survival of the fittest.


William


the antidote for survival isn't to sell yourself short atmo - ever.
for folks with little-no experience and even less business acumen
it's an even worse choice. yet many will make it just to grab a
quick order or three. they won't even be trading money. they'll
be losing it at the front end atmo.

[rphetteplace]

I won’t necessarily disagree with you, but keeping prices points at pre-recession/depression levels aren’t a guarantee that you’ll whether the storm either. Unless you have a well established backlog it would seem you should try to entice the customer within financial reason (for the given situation).

I understand where you and DK are coming from...let the cards fall where they may to weed out some whose quality/experiece is sub par....survival of the fittest.


William

I don't agree with discounting for stud builders. The market will dictate what they are able to charge. Actually I think that it's safe for all the top guys to raise prices each year without much blowback. It's the guys on the bubble of whether or not they have enough orders to pay their bills right now that are going to have problems in the next year or so.

[gemship]

I won’t necessarily disagree with you, but keeping prices points at pre-recession/depression levels aren’t a guarantee that you’ll whether the storm either. Unless you have a well established backlog it would seem you should try to entice the customer within financial reason (for the given situation).

I understand where you and DK are coming from...let the cards fall where they may to weed out some whose quality/experiece is sub par....survival of the fittest.


William


I see where your coming from William. Just think spending bukku bucks on the custom fit made for purpose frame is only part of it as there's high prices for all the stuff hanging off of it. They don't call them high end bikes for nothing. About two years ago I thought a couple grand for a complete bike was serious business now it seems like anything under 5k is affordable. Obviously I spend too much time on this forum :rolleyes:

[Mikej]

Somebody told me to invest in real estate...I will only go up from here. A great deal of people are a little over confident about some things. Todays Wall Street stated that luxury goods, typically safe in down turns, are at 37% down. Many of the builders have a list, many have down payments, but when the time comes, will the person in line have the cash? A back log does not mean a sold product. I worked in the surface mining equipment industy in the early-mid 90's- Bucyrus, we made big stuff, expensive stuff, had a 3 year backlog for 30 machines at 5 million each, and after working years at 60 hrs a week, holidays, sundays etc, they posted a list and said go home, we're done, don't worry about the 6 machines being built on the floor, pit mines were loosing 500k down payments. Lesson to the story - sometimes its easier to loose 1k when you dont have 2k to pay the rest. I wish only the best to all of the builders, I value your comments, contributions, experience and bikes, but be careful, it can happen.

[William]

I don't agree with discounting for stud builders. The market will dictate what they are able to charge. Actually I think that it's safe for all the top guys to raise prices each year without much blowback. It's the guys on the bubble of whether or not they have enough orders to pay their bills right now that are going to have problems in the next year or so.


I agree. The established folks will charge what the market dictates. For the top folks that doesn't change too much when times are tough.

Tough love for the others?




William

[Viper]

I agree. The established folks will charge what the market dictates. For the top folks that doesn't change too much when times are tough.

Tough love for the others?




William

You've tried all the rest, now try the best. Orca Pizza.

[michael white]

cool thread. . . thanks, guys.

mostly I think it's pretty obvious that the market will always shake out. This year's rad fixed builder will be what? next year . . .

Personally I'm putting off a new car, but not a new bike.

[SamIAm]

I think that Richard, Sacha and a couple others are in a market that's recession proof. Their image, expertise, experience have made them a commodity that will not feel the pinch. If either of them chose to reopen their lists they could easily sell their backlog from 5 years from 10 years.

The market that I see as having gotten extremely competitive is what I would consider the next tier in terms of popularity. Not saying they aren't super stud builders, but all of a sudden we've got quite a few options of totally awesome builders feeding the same pool of buyers. I would put Kirk, Bedford, Ellis, Goodrich, and several others in this tier. Not saying that you are getting a better/worse bike than the first tier. These guys are the ones that I would be a bit nervous if I was in this pool. A lot of competition right now.

There are also a TON of builders who live the beatnik lifestyle. They build for the love of the bike/just to be in the industry. It's going to be tough for the next tier up who are in business to compete with this tier imho because the beatniks just aren't interested in making their business profitable.

This is all just my opinion and I hope everybody that puts their heart and soul into welding and brazing bikes a successful year.

Ryan


I am always surprised to see Sasha listed along Sachs. That is just not right in my opinion, Weigle yes, but not Sasha. My personal top tier of active builders Sachs, Weigle, Goodrich and Kirk for what its worth. I don't even think about price when ordering from those guys.

[mike p]

If this economic downturn continues it will be hard on everyone. Handmade frames are a luxury and many frame builders on the list won't survive. E-ritchie and others will survive because they turn out a great product are well established and are shrewd businessmen. That dosen't mean they won't be affected, and that list won't shrink and prices won't be adjusted. Smart business people adjust to the times.

Mike

[happycampyer]

One thing to remember is that a lot of the guys on that list are only producing 50 - 100 frames a year, if they are still taking orders. Granted, it's a niche market, but that's not a lot of supply in the grand scheme of things.

The less experienced builders will feel the pinch as demand softens, but I personally think that the market downturn is going to be felt more acutely by the builders that have greater overhead, and are set up to produce 1,000+ frames a year.

[rphetteplace]

I am always surprised to see Sasha listed along Sachs. That is just not right in my opinion, Weigle yes, but not Sasha. My personal top tier of active builders Sachs, Weigle, Goodrich and Kirk for what its worth. I don't even think about price when ordering from those guys.

Sasha is sitting on a 5-6 yr wait list. That's mainly why I put him top tier. I will agree that Weigle is also there as I believe his wait list is up around there also. The other guys Goodrich, Kirk, Bedford, Ellis all build EXCEPTIONAL bikes. Personally I'd take a couple of those over a couple on my first tier, but I don't think they have the backlog that the other guys do.

Don't get me wrong even with the backlog a builder can get themselves in trouble if they don't understand business. Sachs imho is not only one of the top builders, but THE best businessman in framebuilding. He has established himself as a brand and not just a builder

[Ken Robb]

here comes my business training/experience: most German auto makers selling in the USA offer cheap financing and leases to stimulate sales rather than offering lower prices or cash=back deals. They think this doesn't change peoples' perception of value or returning to real MSRP when business improves.

If a builder with a $2,000-$2500 price for a frame or f and Fork started losing buyers from his wait list could he stem the loss by offering much cheaper or "free" upgrades to entice people to complete the deal? He never lowered his "price" per se but did offer more value in slow times. I think some builders are quite specific as to the cost of upgrades like fancier paint, lugs, etc. and I know some are very vague:"tell me what you want and I'll tell you what it will cost". It would be easier or the vague guys to try my idea but any builder could give it a shot if faced with unwanted cancellations.

[dannyg1]

The obverse of the coin is the looming threat in oil price fluctuation. If summer prices were to hit $4 again, we all might see that list grow in the coming year.

On the subject of Sacha and the Vanilla's, these things are jewel like objects commonly agreed to be built to the highest standard. I think he deserves his spot in the top tier of practicing builders.

Danny

[alancw3]

economics 101. the law of supply and demand. in any market it all comes down to this. now the builders and manufacturers try to create perceived demand but we as consumers need to sort thru that and make educated decisions based on the facts of the day.

[gemship]

The obverse of the coin is the looming threat in oil price fluctuation. If summer prices were to hit $4 again, we all might see that list grow in the coming year.

On the subject of Sacha and the Vanilla's, these things are jewel like objects commonly agreed to be built to the highest standard. I think he deserves his spot in the top tier of practicing builders.

Danny


nice idea but..... how many folks in the know buy the best of the custom made to order frames for true practicality and economy? I honestly don't even see much of a spike in sales for good quality complete bikes built for the masses at the 800-2000$ price point however I do see another spike in sales for scooters and possibly hybrid bicycles at the 200-600$ range.

[xjoex]

Here is an interesting take on this with regard to Louis Vouiton and Gucci. Where Louis V has never discounted their brand and Gucci has, one brand has been devalued and the other has not.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/04/25/gucci_luxury_goods/

-Joe

[fierte_poser]

This thread is an interesting combination of navel gazing, economics 101 and framebuilder business acumen...

Very cool. :)

Especially when Richard and David join in the discussion.

[e-RICHIE]

Here is an interesting take on this with regard to Louis Vouiton and Gucci. Where Louis V has never discounted their brand and Gucci has, one brand has been devalued and the other has not.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/04/25/gucci_luxury_goods/

-Joe
that story is right about the one percent demographic. and
ps - message boards are a small part of the one percent too.
there is hope after all atmo.

[Joellogicman]

nice idea but..... how many folks in the know buy the best of the custom made to order frames for true practicality and economy? I honestly don't even see much of a spike in sales for good quality complete bikes built for the masses at the 800-2000$ price point however I do see another spike in sales for scooters and possibly hybrid bicycles at the 200-600$ range.

If your reaction to the gas spike is to finally get rid of the car altogether, a quality custom may make a lot of sense.

Perhaps a race bike or randoneur would be an extravagence. A well executed custom all around commuter, possibly with custom racks would ensure the best possible transportation.

Even if you are paying the $3k+ builders like Antbikemike command for such a machine, the savings from giving up an economy car would be significant.

[gemship]

If your reaction to the gas spike is to finally get rid of the car altogether, a quality custom may make a lot of sense.

Perhaps a race bike or randoneur would be an extravagence. A well executed custom all around commuter, possibly with custom racks would ensure the best possible transportation.

Even if you are paying the $3k+ builders like Antbikemike command for such a machine, the savings from giving up an economy car would be significant.

$3k is a lot of penny to bank on saving and riding a bike is work. Surly makes a great much more affordable complete bike in the Long Haul Trucker or even their Crosscheck model and even at a grand that's a investment most working class folks may have a hard time considering. The working class that have a comute less than 20 miles a day and their health to get on a bike and ride it. I believe that would be the demographic most interested in alternative gas savings.

[dannyg1]

$3k is a lot of penny to bank on saving and riding a bike is work. Surly makes a great much more affordable complete bike in the Long Haul Trucker or even their Crosscheck model and even at a grand that's a investment most working class folks may have a hard time considering. The working class that have a comute less than 20 miles a day and their health to get on a bike and ride it. I believe that would be the demographic most interested in alternative gas savings.

The way I see it, more people of all the definable classes have already become interested in bicycles as an alternate means of transport over the last two years and the direction that the better off classes might consider in seeking an acceptable commuting vehicle is to shop for a custom. My thought is centered around the transference of the brand identity from autos to bikes.

Considering that a decked out custom bike from one of the best builders is still only around a fifth of the price of a low-end model car of equal brand 'power', might lead to an across the board increase of custom bicycle orders/purchases in the spring.

Of course you're correct that it's the utilitarian solution that'll see the sales go up first (and probably the most), but that doesn't change the fact that people identify personal status with vehicle branding in a sort of 'first and foremost' way.

[rphetteplace]

that story is right about the one percent demographic. and
ps - message boards are a small part of the one percent too.
there is hope after all atmo.

E-richie is Jill Sanders

[david]

I would think that if most of us here were to rate those on the list we’d get a pretty standard consensus of those placing in the top quarter. But that’s not to say that there aren’t a few gems lower down that we aren’t all aware of.


Just pointing out.


William

agree. for 2500 to 4000 and up, it's fairly easy to know where to go for a high probability of ending up with a terrific product.

between, say, 1200 and 2000 is where you spend less, but risk more - unless you know who the gems are.

[gemship]

The way I see it, more people of all the definable classes have already become interested in bicycles as an alternate means of transport over the last two years and the direction that the better off classes might consider in seeking an acceptable commuting vehicle is to shop for a custom. My thought is centered around the transference of the brand identity from autos to bikes.

Considering that a decked out custom bike from one of the best builders is still only around a fifth of the price of a low-end model car of equal brand 'power', might lead to an across the board increase of custom bicycle orders/purchases in the spring.

Of course you're correct that it's the utilitarian solution that'll see the sales go up first (and probably the most), but that doesn't change the fact that people identify personal status with vehicle branding in a sort of 'first and foremost' way.


Yes very true. Who know's until it happens. I luckily fit well on bikes made for the masses. I think while I can benefit from a custom fit, it isn't anything that the right stem,bars, post and seat wouldn't cure along with adj. and just simple stretching. I sort of see the fit of a custom, prestige and build quality(especially steel lug work) as the draw to these bikes. As far as reliability above a certain price point it doesn't seem to matter much.

[Erik.Lazdins]

I fit and ride bikes that are stock - I believe a bike by an individual frame builder is a different item; the two are not really comparable.

I believe with the softening of the economy -the funnel for potential made to measure/custom bikes has gotten narrower.

This will affect, in some fashion, all builders - those who have a fuller funnel won't feel the effect.

I see similar things playing out where I work - fewer people there - the good ones are still there though.

[Joellogicman]

$3k is a lot of penny to bank on saving and riding a bike is work. .

Giving up a car here in Chicago means no insurance payment, parking costs, gas and maintenance, city fees, and, if you buy a car every 3 years or so, the cost of the car itself.

Maybe in rural areas owning a car is less expensive.

I did not give up cars for financial reasons. But I sure notice the savings since I did give up the car - even though I added two expensive custom bikes to my fleet.

[Joellogicman]

Yes very true. Who know's until it happens. I luckily fit well on bikes made for the masses. I think while I can benefit from a custom fit, it isn't anything that the right stem,bars, post and seat wouldn't cure along with adj. and just simple stretching. I sort of see the fit of a custom, prestige and build quality(especially steel lug work) as the draw to these bikes. As far as reliability above a certain price point it doesn't seem to matter much.

It is not so much the fit - though fit is important - it is the dynamics of the perfectly sized racks, the lighting, the chain guard (many bikes you cannot even get a decent chain guard to work).

The pieces all come together to make a bike that even the least athletic person can ride every day yet still make the most of things.

[rounder]

I don't need a custom bike. I just want something that is beautiful and flies. It can fall from heaven, be bought during the last few minutes on ebay, bought with careful and ongoing buyer/seller discussions at the lbs, etc.

That said, i hope that all the custom bike guys survive and do well. If i had the funds, i would have gotten in line for a red sachs. I think they are the beautifulest bikes out there and appreciate his dedication and commitment to building bikes and racing, and also, they are the kind of bikes i like.

Going back to William's original post, i believe that some/many of the builders will have a hard time surviving with this economy. Those that do will be the ones who build quality stuff and stand behind their product...and also have the means to pay the bills during tough times. For those that don't, it is no disgrace. I think statistics show that 80 percent of new companies go bad during their first five years in business. Nobody knows how bad the economy will get, not to mention people's changing tastes in where to spend their money. I think another problem is that a lot of people who could afford to buy a 5k+ bike already have a cool bike(s), so that they are in a position to put off until later to get their next cool bike.

[rounder]

Aside from the fact that the economy is horrible, there are probably many/some of the custom builders who will survive. The bikes they build are worth preserving...so is the culture.

http://www.velocipedesalon.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4526

[gemship]

It is not so much the fit - though fit is important - it is the dynamics of the perfectly sized racks, the lighting, the chain guard (many bikes you cannot even get a decent chain guard to work).

The pieces all come together to make a bike that even the least athletic person can ride every day yet still make the most of things.


I spent a bit of time on the ANT site and really enjoyed the long winded story by founder Mike Flanigan. Really interesting as this dude seemed to be in the thick of some of the best frame building in America over the past twenty years. I thankyou Joellogicman for pointing out this builder and his sensible bikes. He really has some great bikes and I think one of what he calls his most affordable roadster at about 2k complete is a very sensible investment for anyone with the dough. Unfortunately that won't be me anytime soon as I am part of the unemployment statistic as of this past November. I don't want to steal the thread with my woes but I certainly hope the best for the economy and everyone, whatever industry of employment your in. I also don't want to harp on a more sensible bike purchase of bikes made in Asia because I realize that isn't what this thread is necessarily about and I reckon I made my point, representing the frugal contingent. I also feel badly in that I think like Mike pointed out on his site that their are good bikes to come from way way across the pond and then some but the sales of those bikes takes away from the grassroots effort here in the states. As a machine operator I feel like that's part of the problem, just too much of our manufacturing is being outsourced.
:confused: We as a country need to change that.

[mikki]

I will say that the market is not saturated yet. If builders can raise prices - which the majority of them have done in the last year, and if they have a backlog - which I think most do today - then the market isn't saturated.

Keep in mind the custom market in total is a month to month blip for the big manufacturers. There is still a lot of room for the small builder under the radar.

But then again, I'm not in this business, so what do I know.

What are you builders seeing out there? e-Richie? Dave? Curt? Sasha? Dario?

Cheers!

Rob



Last time I spoke with Bill Holland he was doing just fine.

I hope that quality smaller bike manufacturers have saved capital or an avenue to tap for capital during these tough economic times.

Got to thinking about the folks who have ordered customs and are on long list to get theirs. I wonder if they are all going to be able to pay the balance in this current severe recession or if unpaid balances could become an additional problem for the builders? Perhaps the builders all require the payment in full when putting someone on the list?

[rwsaunders]

Don't get me wrong even with the backlog a builder can get themselves in trouble if they don't understand business. Sachs imho is not only one of the top builders, but THE best businessman in framebuilding. He has established himself as a brand and not just a builder

E-Richie continues to undercut the competition regarding the price of his logo waterbottles ($3.00)... is he sending a subliminal message to the masses? :cool:

[William]

agree. for 2500 to 4000 and up, it's fairly easy to know where to go for a high probability of ending up with a terrific product.

between, say, 1200 and 2000 is where you spend less, but risk more - unless you know who the gems are.


True. I suppose you could use a wine analogy here. There are top shelf wines that some people will pay for regardless of price…no questions asked. Then there are the ones that you find for under twenty that are damn good and stay affordable until word spreads, then the price starts climbing. I’m not saying you shouldn’t pay more for good stuff, but the fun is finding the gems. Though that could get expensive with bike frames, but most of us who have been around bikes for a while have somewhat of a clue…..otherwise rating builders is pretty pointless no?




William

[Joellogicman]

I don't want to steal the thread with my woes but I certainly hope the best for the economy and everyone, whatever industry of employment your in. I also don't want to harp on a more sensible bike purchase of bikes made in Asia because I realize that isn't what this thread is necessarily about and I reckon I made my point, representing the frugal contingent. I also feel badly in that I think like Mike pointed out on his site that their are good bikes to come from way way across the pond and then some but the sales of those bikes takes away from the grassroots effort here in the states. As a machine operator I feel like that's part of the problem, just too much of our manufacturing is being outsourced.
:confused: We as a country need to change that.

We are definitely on the same page here.

In our haste as a nation to be true disciples of Adam Smith, many tend to overlook the important contribution that talented blue collar workers such as the bike makers but also machinists have made and can continue to make if they are allowed.

[dawgie]

Not many bike commuters are plunking down $3,000-5,000 for custom frames that they will have to wait 5 years to actually receive. If you bike commute, you need transportation now, regardless of any savings you might realize from not driving. Plus that custom frame priced at $3,000 now might actually cost you $5,000 by the time it is delivered.

People buying expensive custom frames by and large are wealthy with lots of disposable income. They might not consider themselves wealthy, but they are not struggling to pay college tuition and other bills if they can plunk down a deposit on a frame that will take 5 years to receive and might cost twice as much money by then.

[jchasse]

that story is right about the one percent demographic. and
ps - message boards are a small part of the one percent too.
there is hope after all atmo.

This raises an interesting point, and my apologies for any thread drift. But could the builders here give us an idea of what percent of your customers participate on any of the various bulletin boards? Just curious...

[William]

This raises an interesting point, and my apologies for any thread drift. But could the builders here give us an idea of what percent of your customers participate on any of the various bulletin boards? Just curious...

Considering the past Hoopla, I don’t think most builders will answer that question here.

My personal feeling is that for many builders that have gone beyond being just “local”, it accounts for a fair percentage of their business. The buzz that’s created with photos and exuberant ride reports by happy customers help make a name and get buyers to consider them that otherwise likely would have never heard of them in their area. In all honesty, until I started hanging out here, I hadn’t heard of a good percentage of the builders who are considered hot on this forum….and I had been racing for quite a few years. I think the message boards/Forum have been a good thing for the handmade set.....but also has lead to "to many builders" hanging a shingle who shouldn't (according to some in the biz :) )



William

[Tom Matchak]

If you step back and look at the demographics, I don't think that you will conclude that a surge in bicycle commuting will make much of a contribution to propping up the custom frame builders during this economic downturn.

That portion of the U.S. population which might (willingly or not) give up a car for a bicycle for daily utility trips is likely to be budget-driven and practical. The vast majority don't hang out in user groups like this, probably don't recognize the custom builders' names listed in the OP, and don't want to wait to obtain a new bike (if they're buying one at all). If they do buy new, it's going to be from the LBS. If the LBS is smart, they're stocking "affordable" bikes already set up (racks, fenders, lights, wider tires) as practical commuter/utility bikes. Those folks in urban/suburban environments may gravitate to bikes which don't "look" valuable while locked up at work, school or the market.

Sure, I'll agree that some folks will commute on their custom club racer, randonneur or touring rig. But that doesn't necessarily translate into _new_ sales for the custom builders. And, let's be frank, many of the builders listed in the OP aren't known for building commuter/utility style bikes, so when the aficianados go to purchase a custom commuter, the field of candidate builders may narrow.

When you're counting on economic hard times to stimulate a market, you had better recognize the purchasing power and motivations of the newly coalesced pool of buyers. Hope sells lottery tickets, pain sells alcohol, functional value sells commuter bikes.

That's my view. I could be wrong.


Cheers,
Tom

[jbrainin]

E-richie is Jill Sanders

Jil Sanders, please! ;)

[e-RICHIE]

Jil Sanders, please! ;)
sander atmo, huh...

[William]

I agree that a glut of new riders looking to cut down on auto use and save gas are going to be the folks who get sticker shock when they see the pricing on bikes in the LBS. I see it often when I hang at my favorite shop. Most average folks who aren't hardcore think we're bonkers for paying the prices that are paid for the handmade wares. In that sense, the influx of most commuters won't directly contribute to pockets of the builders listed.




William

[Joellogicman]

Not many bike commuters are plunking down $3,000-5,000 for custom frames that they will have to wait 5 years to actually receive. If you bike commute, you need transportation now, regardless of any savings you might realize from not driving. Plus that custom frame priced at $3,000 now might actually cost you $5,000 by the time it is delivered.

People buying expensive custom frames by and large are wealthy with lots of disposable income. They might not consider themselves wealthy, but they are not struggling to pay college tuition and other bills if they can plunk down a deposit on a frame that will take 5 years to receive and might cost twice as much money by then.

for custom racers and the better Randoneurs.

I got my commuter in 18 months. It was not cheap, but not $5 grand either.

It is so much better than the patched together commuter I had been using I sometimes have trouble remembering how I got by without it.

As I say above, the money question really comes down to your overall actions when you buy the commuter. I got rid of my car when I decided to bike commute. I know couples with kids in Chicago who have done the same. If the custom commuter allows you to get rid of the car and all the costs associated with owning a car, your have more money for the kid's college tuition fund, the mortgage, etc.

Owning cars is very expensive. Owning a custom bike, no matter how much, less so.

[Joellogicman]

I agree that a glut of new riders looking to cut down on auto use and save gas are going to be the folks who get sticker shock when they see the pricing on bikes in the LBS. I see it often when I hang at my favorite shop. Most average folks who aren't hardcore think we're bonkers for paying the prices that are paid for the handmade wares. In that sense, the influx of most commuters won't directly contribute to pockets of the builders listed.




William

You get 100k commuters who see the light and go bike and 1,000 of them decide a good custom makes sense especially if this is going to be a life long change, that is a lot of customers for the bike builders.

[William]

You get 100k commuters who see the light and go bike and 1,000 of them decide a good custom makes sense especially if this is going to be a life long change, that is a lot of customers for the bike builders.


I agree that a small percentage will get the bug and eventually buy in. I can't speculate on the percentages.




William

[michael white]

I agree that a glut of new riders looking to cut down on auto use and save gas are going to be the folks who get sticker shock when they see the pricing on bikes in the LBS. I see it often when I hang at my favorite shop. Most average folks who aren't hardcore think we're bonkers for paying the prices that are paid for the handmade wares. In that sense, the influx of most commuters won't directly contribute to pockets of the builders listed.




William

One of my colleagues commutes fairly often. He is as affluent and successful as I am, probably more popular and intelligent, and lives in a much nicer house. He has been riding some sort of Target or Walmart mtn. bike to work for years. The gears stopped working years ago, which he considered a boon since he thought they were unnecessary anyway. A few weeks ago, he asked me to fix the brakes, which weren't really working. I tried, but didn't even know where to start: the thick, powdery rust on the cables, the frozen levers, the stamped calipers like left over linguine, the brake pads made of balsa wood and grinding into the flaky sidewalls of the whitewalls? There are brakes sold on bikes in this country which are not good enough to bother trying to adjust. A sledge hammer would've been the right thing to do. But he was still riding it.

I began urging him to get a decent bike. By decent bike, what I meant was an aluminum beach cruiser. It would've been a huge step up. He didn't want the gears anyway, and he could use a cartridge bb, and no cables. Also the big weight reduction from 40 to 29 would be good, and the rust resistance. I emailed him an ad for such a bike, and he never spoke about it till we met at a party. "300 bucks for a bicycle?" he said? is that how much YOU pay? Are you kidding?"

The last time I saw him, around Christmas, he told me, sadly, that his bike had been stolen. Someone had come behind the beautiful house and fished it out from beneath the deck, where it had been moldering all these years. (I had suggested at least throwing a sheet of plastic over it; he had shrugged.)

He's in a real quandary now, doesn't know what to do.

[dannyg1]

>>> A few weeks ago, he asked me to fix the brakes, which weren't really working. I tried, but didn't even know where to start: the thick, powdery rust on the cables, the frozen levers, the stamped calipers like left over linguine, the brake pads made of balsa wood and grinding into the flaky sidewalls of the whitewalls? <<

>>He's in a real quandary now, doesn't know what to do.<<

C'mon and fess up. You didn't want to lose a friend over a flaky bike or have the responsibility of fixing (or even attempting such a thing). A mysterious occurrence sealed the fate of the bicycle, rather than the cycle sealing the fate of your friendship.

It was Colonel Mustard in the backyard with the candlestick, saluting as the thing sank in the nearby lake, right? :cool: :)

[Ken Robb]

C'mon and fess up. You didn't want to lose a friend over a flaky bike or have the responsibility of fixing (or even attempting such a thing). A mysterious occurrence sealed the fate of the bicycle, rather than the cycle sealing the fate of your friendship.

It was Colonel Mustard in the backyard with the candlestick, saluting as the thing sank in the nearby lake, right? :cool: :)

reminds me of the time I had to stick a knife in the sidewalls of the corded bald tires on my rich father-in-laws pickup so he had to get some new safe ones. He was well-off in no small part because of his thriftiness but sheesh, enough already.

[gemship]

those last three post are funny,funnier,and just too much. LMAO! Thankyou, I needed that.

:beer:

[michael white]

C'mon and fess up. You didn't want to lose a friend over a flaky bike or have the responsibility of fixing (or even attempting such a thing). A mysterious occurrence sealed the fate of the bicycle, rather than the cycle sealing the fate of your friendship.

It was Colonel Mustard in the backyard with the candlestick, saluting as the thing sank in the nearby lake, right? :cool: :)

jeez, I wish. All I can say is good riddance.

[rphetteplace]

sander atmo, huh...

who is Jil Sander? Jill Sanders is this lady with big hair that makes purses at the mall that you can have your picture embroidered into. Cool stuff! :)

The dudes that make the nice stuff are going to be ok if they keep their heads on. I think the most difficult part for a small builder would be managing cashflow. With people not having jobs and not being able to pay up when there frames are done it wouldn't take to long to put a builder in the poor house.

[e-RICHIE]

who is Jil Sander? Jill Sanders is this lady with big hair that makes purses at the mall that you can have your picture embroidered into. Cool stuff! :)

The dudes that make the nice stuff are going to be ok if they keep their heads on. I think the most difficult part for a small builder would be managing cashflow. With people not having jobs and not being able to pay up when there frames are done it wouldn't take to long to put a builder in the poor house.
dude if you don't know jil sander, iconic german fashion designer,
i may find another wurst party at nahbs atmo. google atmo!

[rphetteplace]

dude if you don't know jil sander, iconic german fashion designer,
i may find another wurst party at nahbs atmo. google atmo!

Prada doesn't offer anything for a 20" neck and a 39" sleeve.

I thought nice jewish boys didn't dine on swine??? I've also promised Mike that I'd bring in some mid-west BBQ one day too!

[William]

Quoting my own post…is that bad form? :confused: :)


I came across this thread in the archives searching for something else and after reading again I thought I would resuscitate it.

Here we are after slogging through the downturn for the past year and a half since this thread speculated the effects of the economy on high-end frames/products. How do you think the industry has fared? Most of the “major” boutique builders are still around brazing, tigging, and gluing up their wares. Are there any others out there who had trouble weathering the storm and closed the doors?

How about you personally? Have your purchases of frames and/or equipment increased, decreased, or stayed steady?




Just feeling like following up.
William



Yamaguchi
Mike Zanconato
Richard Sachs
Chris Bull - Circle A Cycles
Peter Mooney
Indy Fab guys
Mike Flanigan - ANT
Tony Peiria
Vanilla
CoMotion
Ira Ryan
Ti Cycles
Brain Marcroft
DeSalvo
P. Weigle
Franklin Frames
Roark
Chris Kvale
Doug Fattic
Curt Goodrich.
Scott Quiring
Serotta
Harry Havnoonian
Bilenky
Spectrum
Quetzal Bicycles
Bill Holland
Ves Mandaric
Russ Denny
Jim Kish.
Andy Gilmour
David Bohm.
Hampsten/Tournesol
Capital
Bill Davidson
Glenn Erickson.
Curtlo
Ira Ryan
Strawberry
Pereira
Ahearne
Brian Baylis
Bill Stevenson
Bob Brown
Dave Anderson
Black Sheep
Primus Mootry
Moots
mariposa
Coho Cycles
Jeff Lyon
Parlee Cycles
steve rex
eisentraut
litton
mikkelsen
potts
sycip
soulcraft
ibis
inglis
DEAN
Nobilette
Anvil
Gangl
Kent Eriksen
slawta/landshark
Carl Strong
David Kirk
Bruce Gordon
SoloVelo
Brent Steelman
Rock Lobster
Waltworks
Zinn
Rivendell
Craig Calfee
Nick Crumpton
Moyer
Hujsak Bicycles
Ted Wojcik
Seven
Hot Tubes
Hans Schneider
Alpine Design
Hairy Gary
Villin Cycle Works
David Cheakas
Oswald
Roland Della Santa
Ves Mandaric
Russ Denny
Dave Moulton
David Ybarolla
K. Bedford Customs
Vendetta
Willits
True Fab
Igleheart
Geek House
Dave Wages
Jonny Cycles
Waterford
ZR Cycles
Groovy Cyclework
El Camino Cycles
Broakland
Leopard
Signal Cycles
Courage
Vertigo
Wes Williams
Columbine Cycle Works
Pegoretti
Kirk Pacenti
Lynskey
LLewellen
Plus more that can and can’t be found listed here… http://www.handmadebicycleshow.com/nahbs2009/Build01.htm

Add to that the more mass produced builders/manufacturers such as…

Trek
Specialized
Giant
Merckx
Bianchi
Time
Look
Felt
Kona
Colnago
DeRosa

Plus many more manufactures and handmade builders from all over the world that aren’t on this list.

Has the market become saturated? A lot of builders have come up through the ranks in recent years and are offering their wares. The internet and a decent economy helped them get their names out there. Prices have also risen accordingly during this time period. Five years ago I would have said you were insane if you told me there would be frames on the market for $7 -8 -9,000…stripped down. Add accordingly for extras. There are lots of options for the buyer out there from handmade & mass produced builders alike. Now with the economy tanking, are we going to see a culling of the group? Will it be that only those that can get lean and produce a good value frame at a lower price point will survive? Sure there will be a few high end niche builders that will try to stay in that group, but even the formerly “recession proof” high end market is taking a beating. A back log of deposits for a few years may insulate for a while but if things don’t turn around soon that could change things.

Look at the used part of the market, some folks are almost having to give away things like Ottrotts and other nice frame/bikes just to get them to move. Lots of competition, a bad market, and consumers who for the most part are afraid to open their wallets and purses too much. I know of a couple well known builders who are scared right now. I feel for them. It’s a tough time and prices are going to have to come down in order to stimulate orders. Who is going to survive, and who will have to move on or get other work?



William

[dekindy]

William - You left off all the Indiana builders that I am aware of except Roark.

Shamrock Cycles (was at 2009 NAHBS), Cherry Bicycle (I think he is still in business), and oh yeah, Don Walker (NAHBS organizer).

There appear to be more coming into the business than retiring/leaving so I estimate that the market is not saturated, ATMO.

[39cross]

Geez William, recycling your old posts...just like the ghost of Art Buchwald, RIP. ;)

But inquiring minds want to know what your master list would look like today.

[retrogrouchy]

William - You left off all the Indiana builders that I am aware of except Roark.

Shamrock Cycles (was at 2009 NAHBS), Cherry Bicycle (I think he is still in business), and oh yeah, Don Walker (NAHBS organizer).

There appear to be more coming into the business than retiring/leaving so I estimate that the market is not saturated, ATMO.

I pretty much agree. I think the niche we are talking about is so quirky (and tiny, in the overall scheme of things) that it is kind of amoeba-like and funkified, but not necessarily over-filled with options in builders. It is, however, sort of self-regulating, I suspect. A bunch go out of business, a bunch go into business, each year. The bunch is just a really, really small number compared to, say, the number of bike shops in the USA.

I am recalling several years ago, when I read that Santana Cycles owned 50% of the US 'quality' tandem market. That meant they sold 1000 units per year (20 per week), out of the total of 2000. Not even a micro-micro niche to the big three....

Since then, I think that particular niche has perhaps tripled, to maybe 6000 units per year. Still not even a boil on the bum of a Rekt, Giante, or Specshial-tized....

[retrogrouchy]

Plus, there is a lugged steel renaissance underway right now (forgot to plug that in my first post...).

Steel is real! :banana:

[goonster]

Since William's original post I have placed orders for two custom steel bikes.

From a client's point-of-view, both the options and the quality have improved slightly, atmo.

[nalsdixit]

recycling a 2008 post, and to me pushing a post 'wishing' custom frame builders got a bad business and are going to fail, i do note get

if you got constructive advice to new frame builders offer it, if you do not, but do not think they are going to survive, figure out a way to get short

maybe goldman's can structure you a cdo,...

[William]

recycling a 2008 post, and to me pushing a post 'wishing' custom frame builders got a bad business and are going to fail, i do note get

if you got constructive advice to new frame builders offer it, if you do not, but do not think they are going to survive, figure out a way to get short

maybe goldman's can structure you a cdo,...


No, read again.




William

[retrogrouchy]

recycling a 2008 post, and to me pushing a post 'wishing' custom frame builders got a bad business and are going to fail, i do note get

if you got constructive advice to new frame builders offer it, if you do not, but do not think they are going to survive, figure out a way to get short

maybe goldman's can structure you a cdo,...

I wish I knew what you were trying to say. :(

[Charles M]

My parents already figured out a way for me to get short. :hello:

[jr59]

After reading all of this old, long thread;

I have made up my mind, The GOOD stuff will ALWAYS be the good stuff,
And worth the $$$$$

[spartacus]

I will say that the market is not saturated yet. If builders can raise prices - which the majority of them have done in the last year, and if they have a backlog - which I think most do today - then the market isn't saturated.

Keep in mind the custom market in total is a month to month blip for the big manufacturers. There is still a lot of room for the small builder under the radar.

But then again, I'm not in this business, so what do I know.

What are you builders seeing out there? e-Richie? Dave? Curt? Sasha? Dario?

Cheers!

Rob

Price elasticity of demand is the principle and staying just nicely ahead of that curve is the aim. Tricky to do in troubled economic times though, especially when selling a custom physical product (rather than a service).

[sherok]

If it wasn't saturated, bikes would be dull and everyone would have the same thing.