Why? -- Spoiler

[paczki]

Why do they not seem more afraid of Vande Velde? He's basically tied with Menchov and he's an excellent time trialist. Are they just assuming he will crack when it gets really steep on Tuesday and Wednesday? He was superb today, with enough energy at the end to put a little time into Evans. He has no team when it gets steep -- where is Trent Lowe? -- but the way in which he combined with Evans, the young Liquigas rider and the other non--CSC riders was effective. And he looks very, very confident.

[rustychisel]

see here http://forums.thepaceline.net/showthread.php?t=48406

Maybe it's something to do with his stoopid hat? Or even that he's not exactly been known as a big ticket item for long stage races before...

[johnnymossville]

If he gets on the podium it's a huge win for Garmin. They'll need some more firepower for next year's race though.

[soulspinner]

I really think nobody thinks he can keep this up until Paris. Love this Tour, just what the race needed. Cadel lost the jersey but his team cant defend it for an extended period so let someone elses team take the wind..

[djg]

I really think nobody thinks he can keep this up until Paris. Love this Tour, just what the race needed. Cadel lost the jersey but his team cant defend it for an extended period so let someone elses team take the wind..

I really think he can. I don't know it. If he cracks on one mountain stage, and he could, he drops out of the top ten. OTOH, he's made it though the Pyrenees and the first alpine stage in good form -- and less than a minute from the yellow -- and he's capable of a good time trial. Writing him off the podium seems premature.

[1centaur]

Why do they not seem more afraid of Vande Velde? He's basically tied with Menchov and he's an excellent time trialist.

At what point could they have showed their fear? It's not like he sprinted away from them and they let him go. They can judge his form as they ride next to him, and I'd bet they see someone struggling but hanging on impressively. Is that better than Zubeldia when he and Mayo were in the top 10? I suspect Evans would not want VDV being 20 seconds up on GC vs. him, and Sastre would not want VDV being 30 seconds down on GC to him coming out of Wednesday, but first things first - watching for explosive accelerations from Schleck, Sastre or Menchov - worry about the hangers on later.

I also think there's a feeling that Schleck and Menchov have really gotten the job done in major races while VDV is just another Popovych - talented domestique on a good year. In the post-dope era, that kind of rider can defy easy expectations (see Bernhard Kohl). VDV has a very good shot for Top 4, and will get more respect next year.

[girlie]

At what point could they have showed their fear?

I believe he means "the commutators and such" and not the other riders:)
Maybe?

[paczki]

I believe he means "the commutators and such" and not the other riders:)
Maybe?

Yup, I meant the managers, etc. Also the riders being interviewed after the stage. Sastre will need quite a bit more than 30 seconds in a time trial that long as will Schleck and Kohl.

[Fixed]

i like what j.b. said how he tore his legs off helping l.a. in 99 ..
i think if he stays near where he is or around a min. ...then with a strong t.t. he could get on the pod. imho
cheers

[cadence90]

I really think nobody thinks he can keep this up until Paris.
Lance does. (http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/?id=/features/2008/tour08_lance_armstrong_predictions)
I guess he and paczki talked about it. :)

"Cyclingnews: You mentioned Christian Vande Velde. He a former team-mate from your US Postal days. Have you been following him closely?

LA: Some people may not have expected to see Christian do so well, but I know first-hand that he's a very strong guy and that he gets better and better as the race unfolds. He might be 39 seconds down on yellow, but to me, from when I was racing, if the gap to yellow was that small, it's pretty much the same time and you're on a level playing field.

He's also got a heap of experience, too, and he is making the correct amount of effort - conserving his energy when he can but also following and instigating the moves like he did on Sunday.

Perhaps his biggest strength might be that he can get stronger as the race goes on, while some of his rivals could become weaker. Don't forget he can time trial well, too. I know he used to have some problems with his back and legs when he was younger. He seems to have sorted those out now and he is riding a great race."

[soulspinner]

I would love him to win it. Anybody catch CV smiling as he rounded the corner a few hundred meters from the finish? He must be havin the time of his life.

[EDS]

Why do they not seem more afraid of Vande Velde? He's basically tied with Menchov and he's an excellent time trialist. Are they just assuming he will crack when it gets really steep on Tuesday and Wednesday? He was superb today, with enough energy at the end to put a little time into Evans. He has no team when it gets steep -- where is Trent Lowe? -- but the way in which he combined with Evans, the young Liquigas rider and the other non--CSC riders was effective. And he looks very, very confident.

I guess we have the answer now. I really hope he doesn't lose anymore time and can claw his way back onto the podium, but that looks almost impossible now.

[sjbraun]

He was only back 35 seconds at the summit, but crashed on the descent.