OT: $4.00 gallon

[AgilisMerlin]

The Wacky World of Oil: Why Gasoline Will Hit $4.00 a Gallon this Summer.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20896

[Blue Jays]

Definitely put far more mileage on the bicycles than I do on my cars and motorcycles combined.
I've definitely been making more teleconference appointments with clients than in previous years. It's working out very well.

[AgilisMerlin]

http://www.nowandfutures.com/great_depression.html

According to economist John Kenneth Galbraith, "as a protection against financial illusion or insanity, memory is far better than law. When the memory of the 1929 disaster failed, law and regulation no longer sufficed."

Galbraith believes there is nothing unique about the crash of 1929; financial bubbles happen "every 20 or 30 years because that is about the length of the financial memory. It's about the length of time that it requires for a new set of suckers, if you will, a new set of people capable of wonderful self-delusion to come in."

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/crash/index.html

[Ahneida Ride]

That's 4 fed reserve notes (frn) per gallon, not dollars.

frns are created outa thin air to fund the goverment.
We pay thru "inflation" or frn dilution and even pay interest on the frns too.

In 1970 the dollar was redeamable in gold at 32 dollars/oz.
Gas was 32 cents/gallon.
Thus 1 oz gold purchased 100 gallons of gas.

Today, 1 oz of gold = 1000 frn. Gas is 3.33 frn/gallon.
Thus one oz of gold now purchases 300 gallons.

In real dollars, gas is about 11 cents/gallon. much tooooo cheap.

Don't be suprised if gas triples in price.
The end result of currency dilution.
Actually we could fund the US by creating all the frns we need outa
thin air and not even tax ourselves, but that would be a bit too obvious.

[M.Sommers]

BMW Hydrogen. I thought it would be my next car, not so sure:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,448648,00.html

[saab2000]

The sun heats the earth, causing (among other causes) the air to move. Right there for the taking. As soon as it's cheaper to harness this clean, abundant energy we will start using it.

The folks who figure out how to do it and sell it will be the next titans of industry and world leaders.

[Karin Kirk]

There are actually lots of exciting options for new relationships with energy and transportation. Higher gasoline prices make the new approaches more attractive and are spurring on research and investment.

The interesting twist will be which happens first: gasoline (and all things dependent on it) becomes prohibitively expensive, or new approaches get ushered into the mainstream. If gasoline tops $5/gallon before we have some ready alternatives, we will be economically hurting. I think we are in for some interesting times over the next 10-20 years.

Of course this is all imho.

[Too Tall]

What? Like $3.50 doesn't grab you? Saw that this morning....while riding my bike :)

[victoryfactory]

My friends in London are paying over $9.00 a gallon

VF

[CarbonCycles]

Amusing, we complain about $4 a gallon when other parts complain about 3-5x per liter. either way, less ppl filling up means more fuel for myself (tongue in cheek ppl)

[Karin Kirk]

My friends in London are paying over $9.00 a gallon

VF

Isn't part of that difference due to the US dollar being so low by comparison? I understand that in Europe (and most places) gasoline costs more than it does here, but lately with the dollar sinking, I'm not sure the comparison is accurate. For example, it might be nice to know how many loaves of bread = 1 gallon of gasoline. A measure like that would cancel out the currency difference.

[RPS]

It was just a matter of time. According to a recent analysis, present vehicles consume more gas than in 1980 despite significant technological advances.

As engineers improved the efficiency of automobiles, American buyers drove more miles per vehicle and bought larger vehicles in the form of light trucks (i.e. – SUVs, trucks, vans, etc.). We basically offset all advances by driving more and larger.

A little downsizing is the simplest solution all around which not only helps in reducing energy at the pump, but also in the manufacturing process, recycling, etc. And if we are really interested in saving fuel, we would compromise a little on our performance expectations. The average American has no idea what (s)he pays daily for the capability to accelerate three times faster than many autos produced just a few decades ago, or the ability to cruise at 120 MPH when speed limits are in the 75 MPH range.

[Ray]

Isn't part of that difference due to the US dollar being so low by comparison? I understand that in Europe (and most places) gasoline costs more than it does here, but lately with the dollar sinking, I'm not sure the comparison is accurate. For example, it might be nice to know how many loaves of bread = 1 gallon of gasoline. A measure like that would cancel out the currency difference.
Except that the price of a loaf of bread is partially dependent on the price of getting the ingredients to the baker and the loaf to the store shelves. Which involves the cost of oil. Our whole economy is sooooooo dependent on oil that you can't really isolate any cost to come up with a "clean" comparison. I agree with your first point - things are gonna get interesting. I too hope that we have a seamless transition to clean sources of energy and that clean sources can provide enough energy to support something approaching the standard of living we've all gotten used to. I have my doubts about both. I guess that's the curse of living in interesting times!

-Ray

[Karin Kirk]

Except that the price of a loaf of bread is partially dependent on the price of getting the ingredients to the baker and the loaf to the store shelves. Which involves the cost of oil. Our whole economy is sooooooo dependent on oil that you can't really isolate any cost to come up with a "clean" comparison. I agree with your first point - things are gonna get interesting. I too hope that we have a seamless transition to clean sources of energy and that clean sources can provide enough energy to support something approaching the standard of living we've all gotten used to. I have my doubts about both. I guess that's the curse of living in interesting times!

-Ray

Right, I completely agree that everything, everything is tied to the price of oil. What I was attempting to do with the bread analogy was separate the price of oil from the currency differences between the US and Europe.

In other words, as the dollar sinks compared to the Euro, it looks like gasoline is getting more expensive there because we're converting it to US dollars to compare. But the actual difference is currency, not oil prices.

But that is all beside the main point, which is far more interesting! I've been reading some great articles on energy research and it indeed sounds very exciting. Silicon Valley researchers and Palo Alto venture capitalists are really digging into this, which to me seems like a good thing. I'm all for gov't research too, but I think when big bucks get involved, that can drive things forward more quickly.

Oh, and RPS, I completely agree with your points too; well said.

[RPS]

Except that the price of a loaf of bread is partially dependent on the price of getting the ingredients to the baker and the loaf to the store shelves. Which involves the cost of oil.Ray, in a way it’s even more complicated than that. Much of the inflation we are seeing in food prices like that of bread is due to the commitment for ethanol which in turn has increased prices of corn and wheat significantly.

Although they would not normally seem that interrelated, comparing the cost ratio of bread to gasoline could be misleading. Ethanol production has had an unexpected adverse affect on many parts of the economy.

[Ozz]

The sun heats the earth, causing (among other causes) the air to move. Right there for the taking. As soon as it's cheaper to harness this clean, abundant energy we will start using it.

The folks who figure out how to do it and sell it will be the next titans of industry and world leaders.
check out the Jaeger LeCoultre ATMOS clock....powers itself by using changes in air pressure (temperature, actually)...cool. It has been around since the '20's.

BTW - I bought a Prius two weeks ago....my wife relocated her job closer to our home (2 miles) and takes kids to bus / day care. She was my carpool partner, so now I ride the bus (or bike ;) ).

[RPS]

I completely agree with your points tooIt’s just that I’m old enough to remember driving a VW beetle with 36 HP. At that size, weight, and performance a car today could easily get 60 to 80 MPG highway – maybe more.

As much as I dislike waste and making things more complicated than necessary, I know most buyers won't accept much compromise at $4.00/gallon.

[CarbonCycles]

check out the Jaeger LeCoultre ATMOS clock....powers itself by using changes in air pressure (temperature, actually)...cool. It has been around since the '20's.


I <3 JLCs...so much that I forgive you for driving a Prius :D

[M.Sommers]

Great episode, 'The Hubbert Peak' of 'The West Wing' covered these issues very well:

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/reinsider/story?id=19226

http://westwing.bewarne.com/sixth/605hubbert.html

[Kevan]

the internet made the earth small. The increased price of gas is going to make the earth large again, as if back to horses and carriages. How quick are you going to be willing to blow $4+ a gallon just to Sunday drive.

I gave up thinking scooter last year buying a used Jetta instead. Here I am again rethinking the scooter idea.

[M.Sommers]

the internet made the earth small. The increased price of gas is going to make the earth large again, as if back to horses and carriages. How quick are you going to be willing to blow $4+ a gallon just to Sunday drive.

I gave up thinking scooter last year buying a used Jetta instead. Here I am again rethinking the scooter idea.

I can't locate the episode for viewing 'The Hubbert Peak' from TWW, but the thrust was:

1). Gas/oil is still the best buy.
2). Gas/oil has been remained low in price to the consumer in spite of inflation.
3). A pair of jeans from 1974 in comparison to 2004 versus a gallon of gas offerd two raised eyebrows.
4). Alternative fuels aren't near where they need to be and often require more cost to produce versus a gallon of gas.
5). Big picture offered that a gallon of gas is still the best buy going. A 16oz chai latte is $2.50 and a gallon of water is nearly $3.50.
6). The notion was that to reduce greenhouse emissions, the best thing to do would be increase price of fuel.

Soylent green is people.

[AgilisMerlin]

how are the oil futures, directly increasing the price of gasoline, and at what point do they eat all the production companies profit. My dad and i were talking about this yesterday.

can someone give a little cause and effect scenario

thanks ahead of time.....

[RPS]

6). The notion was that to reduce greenhouse emissions, the best thing to do would be increase price of fuel.IMO this will only work to a significant extent if we can increase the cost of fuel internationally, and we don’t have that power.

[93legendti]

IMO this will only work to a significant extent if we can increase the cost of fuel internationally, and we don’t have that power.
Anyone know what gas costs in Europe, Japan, India, Russia and China, etc.? My guess is more than in the USA.

[manet]

like bottled water is any less expensive, and oh soooo much harder to make.

[Lazy Bill]

Anyone know what gas costs in Europe, Japan, India, Russia and China, etc.? My guess is more than in the USA.
My cousin is an oil & gas engineer in Norway, one of the largest producers of oil in the world. They pay $3-4 per liter (approx.), but its mostly taxes, which they reinvest in public transportation, social programs, etc.

[93legendti]

My cousin is an oil & gas engineer in Norway, one of the largest producers of oil in the world. They pay $3-4 per liter (approx.), but its mostly taxes, which they reinvest in public transportation, social programs, etc.
iirc, a European Forumite once posted that he/she wished their gas was only $4/gallon.

[M.Sommers]

Anyone know what gas costs in Europe, Japan, India, Russia and China, etc.? My guess is more than in the USA.

Yes Sir, totally agreed.

Not to get pol*tical, but why sign a Kyoto Protocol when folks like China can destroy every living pond, river, lake and stream? Didn't China sign up for Kyoto on May 29th, 1998? Doesn't look like it, to the human eye. The pen might be mightier than the sword, but reality, reason and logic overrule all. Also, I did not know that per capita, Australia is one of the biggest offenders, wow. Lastly, when the folks in marketing for greenhouse issues offer data from the years 1800 to 2000, I mean really, 1800? :confused:

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:xTvWgKY3jQsJ:chinese-school.netfirms.com/news-article-China-Kyoto-Protocol.html+kyoto+treaty+china&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:eDgKe5L5fZMJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol+kyoto+treaty+china&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

[93legendti]

Yes Sir, totally agreed.

Not to get pol*tical, but why sign a Kyoto Protocol when folks like China can destroy every living pond, river, lake and stream? Didn't China sign up for Kyoto on May 29th, 1998? Doesn't look like it, to the human eye. The pen might be mightier than the sword, but reality, reason and logic overrule all. Also, I did not know that per capita, Australia is one of the biggest offenders, wow. Lastly, when the folks in marketing for greenhouse issues offer data from the years 1800 to 2000, I mean really, 1800? :confused:

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:xTvWgKY3jQsJ:chinese-school.netfirms.com/news-article-China-Kyoto-Protocol.html+kyoto+treaty+china&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:eDgKe5L5fZMJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol+kyoto+treaty+china&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
I made a similar point the last time global warming came up and they tried to chase me out of town...go figure.

[RPS]

Anyone know what gas costs in Europe, Japan, India, Russia and China, etc.? My guess is more than in the USA.My only point was that global warming doesn't respect borders. We should also not forget deforestation which plays a major role in this issue.

[93legendti]

My only point was that global warming doesn't respect borders. We should also not forget deforestation which plays a major role in this issue.
I agree 100%. Last summer we donated 1000 trees in Israel -they help no matter where they are.

[M.Sommers]

My only point was that global warming doesn't respect borders. We should also not forget deforestation which plays a major role in this issue.

Not a Kenny Loggins fan so much, but during his concert in the Redwoods, he offered the story behind his song 'Conviction of the Heart'. Turns out he was stuck in serious traffic on the PCH in California, his wife was giving birth miles away in the hospital. Along side his car was a huge truck with nuclear/toxic stickers on it, some kind of tanker vehicle and it hit him...

A truly great song, it's on my iPod atmo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjkNsHij19c

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7t0K9uyLEQY

Where are the dreams that we once had?


Where are the dreams that we once had?
This is the time to bring the back.
What were the promises caught on the tips of our tongues?
Do we forget or forgive?
There's a whole other life waiting to be lived when...
One day we're brave enough
To talk with Conviction of the Heart.
And down your streets I've walked alone,
As if my feet were not my own
Such is the path I chose, doors I have opened and closed
I'm tired of living this life,
Fooling myself, believing we're right, when...
I've never given love
With any Conviction of the Heart
One with the earth, with the sky
One with everything in life
I believe we'll survive
If we only try...
How long must we wait to change
This world bound in chains that we live in
To know what it is to forgive,
And be forgiven?
It's been too many years of taking now.
Isn't it time to stop somehow?
Air that's too angry to breathe, water our children can't drink
You've heard it hundreds of times
You say your aware, believe, and you care, but...
Do you care enough
To talk with Conviction of the Heart?