I think it's a simple question

[Kines]

It's been a while since I posted here or even lurked, so forgive me if this has been covered. I just haven't seen any talk of this in any of the stuff I've read on line or seen on OLN...

The question: If Jan had Lance's team, and vice versa, would Jan be winning? Of course assuming same team loyalty, organization, etc etc....

It just seems like there's no other team anything like Postal. Sure, there's no one like Lance, either, but it just seems strange to me that no other team appears to be taking the same approach, and surely there's enough talent and strength out there to have other teams similar to Postal. For example, the team time trial. Several teams looked like they weren't even trying, and none of the teams had the regimented discipline and organization of Postal. Is it really that hard to get 9 guys to draft each other in a tight line for an hour?!? And of course, the mountains. Are there really no other riders on T-Mobile like Azevedo or Landis that can do this kind of work for Jan?

[dirtdigger88]

No!

The Posties are the way they are because of one man and one man only-Lance. Without Lance in the early training days the boys in blue would not be destroying the field like they are now. Think about it- train with someone that strong day in and day out. Jan would lead the boys to the clubs and the beach :p

Jason

[Tom]

Given the gains people make when Riis is their coach, would Ullrich go over there to get his rear kicked into getting over the last hurdle?

[TmcDet]

Given the gains people make when Riis is their coach, would Ullrich go over there to get his rear kicked into getting over the last hurdle?

Hasn't Jan turned CSC down before? I don't think he would ever put in the yr round training that CSC would require of him.

From what I have heard everyone knows that Jan could be unbeatable if he would train like Lance does, but they also know that he will never put out the effort to take advantage of it.

[gasman]

they are because of the single minded determination of lance. he seems to have the ability to focus on winning and he expects the rest of the team to work as hard as he does, which way harder than most riders are willing to do. johan also seems to know how to get the team ready as well as any other director. riis also does a great job. lance is winning again because of great genes, year round focus, tremendous mental self control and drive. knowing that he can't do it alone he surrounds himself with great riders and support staff and gets them to work well together. pretty amazing to win 6 in a row.

[Smiley]

I want to know if anybody knows what the team budgets are. Is Postal out spending for their riders versus others ? Just curious and take Lances salary out of the equation.

[flydhest]

It's not quite the right comparison, but think of it this way. When Ace, Chechu, and Floyd are setting the pace, the only benefit Lance has over Jan is that he can tell them to back off if it's too fast. Other than that, the m.o. is to ride each teammate until he's dead and then see who's left and let Lance take it from there. Basso, Ullrich, and Kloden got a ride on the bus. As it has turned out, when Jan is in the final group, he hasn't typically been able to close the deal.

[zap]

No. Lance as a leader has that special leadership quality. Similiar to M. Schumacher at Ferrari in F1 racing.

Lance also rides the bike at the TdF better than anyone too......

From Velonews, USPS budget is 8-9 million. T-Mobile's budget is around 14 million. CSC, 5-6 million.

Remember that T-Mobile races quite a bit more than USPS through out the year.

[ericmurphy]

I want to know if anybody knows what the team budgets are. Is Postal out spending for their riders versus others ? Just curious and take Lances salary out of the equation.

Go to VeloNews team listings (http://www.velonews.com/tour2004/team/). Under each team is a listing of its budget. Postal is towards the top end with respect to budget; about nine million dollars. But Jan's team spends far more than anyone else at 14.4 million.

[my2cents]

i looked at that same issue this morning during my ... evacuation.

as mentioned, from velonews.

2 teams with budgets above postal (t-mobile and rabbobank), and 4 teams equal to postal.

if the numbers are accurate, it is clear that the simplistic answer to the question -- that postal is buying tour victories -- doesn't hold true. approx 1/3 of the teams are on at least equal footing with postal in this regard.

[flydhest]

my2cents,

I think you're overlooking two important aspects. First, as zap points out, most other teams race more than USPS. As a result, an equal budget, spent over more riders and more races would go less far. Second, but related, is how the money is broken down in terms of salary and other expenses. I don't know the answer to that. People have talked about Heras or Leipheimer being bought away to be leaders, but I'd be curious to know what happened to Vandevelde's salary.

The focus for USPS is the Tour, the other races are less important, so it makes some sense that they could spend less than other teams for the year and yet be outspending them in terms of rider salaries.

[Climb01742]

a story i read somewhere about lance and his team. one day during springtime training. team was all staying at a hotel. it was raining. lance comes downstairs for breakfast and hears guys at breakfast table bitching about having to spend a day training in the rain. lances gets pissed and says if they don't want to ride in the rain, he'll find guys who do. there seems to be an ethos on the team about paying the price. lance sets the tone but the other guys buy into it and suffer, sacrifice and as in this year's tour, kick butt. OLN said yesterday that floyd landis has been offered big bucks by another team. interesting to see if he jumps, or if postal/discovery finds the bucks. tough to lose floyd. but then again, who has left postal and flourished? tyler, to a degree...under riis...another kick butt in training guy.

[flydhest]

. . . but I think the spirit of Kines question was, if the team had the same organization and motivation and loyalty, would Ullrich beat Lance. Now, you could argue that that isn't a premise on which a valid discussion could be had, but I disagree. One way to look at the question is simply, strip away everything else, who's the better rider? You could use the time trials to answer that after a certain fashion. However, in using the team, a couple crucial parts come up. For example, last year, when Lance was having bad days, if Jan had the team and they were pushing the pace more and more instead of being reined in somewhat by Lance, perhaps the outcome would have been different. People say, and I think it's true, that you can't attack Lance when he's 100% . . . you'll lose. Well, if Postal isn't controlling the race when he's suboptimal, you could put more time into him. Conversely, if he's doing well and Jan isn't, a better team could help limit the losses. The times when Ullrich ran away last year, without a team . . . if he had had Landis and Ace there for him (quite honestly, if only his team worked as well as a team) things could have been different.

[my2cents]

i don't know that postal races any less than any other pro team. lance may race less than *some* other pros, but I would be willing to bet that the cumlative race starts for the top 15 riders from each of the top 15 teams are within 10% of each other. and don't forget the drain on postal of having to sport 2 teams in europe (i don't know about this year but in past years the 'b' team was doing other races while the a'a' team was at the tour, while the 'c' team -- and riders needing time back in the US team was tooling racing back here) as well as in the US -- not too many teams racing on two continents that i can think of.

when you factor in everything (and i cna't even imagine all the variables) or if you just take the velonews numbers at face value, i just don't think he can say that postal is buying tour victories -- the role money plays postal's wins is way down in the success equation.

edited note: would you ever guess that I was an English major!?

[Dr. Doofus]

ok, we're going to be a know-it-all a-hole:

if ya go back to a thread from the winter about the "t-mobile superteam" the doc and/or I pronounced that they weren't no superteam at'all. they've got one star: jan ulrich. they've got one living legend who gets a ton of uci points but doesn't do a whole lot to help jan, and doesn't win a whole lot anymore, either: zabel. they've got two guys who have had two good years between the two of them: vino and kloden. they've got one guy who will gain ten minutes one day, lose twenty the next: botero. one guy who the english-speaking press has a stiffy for, but hasn't done much to earn "star" staus: evans. then they've got some decent domestiques.

the comparison the doc made was the late-70s red sox or angels, who tried to win the american league by overpaying for over-hyped "stars." the doc compared postal to the late yankees, whose success over the past five years has come from carefully selecting the right role players and rewarding them handsomely. bruyneel cherry-picked specialists, and managed them into a seamless, cohesive unit.

if jan had postal, and lance had t-mobile, lance would come out on top -- but by a smaller margin. he still has the explosive ability to vary his cadence in the mountains that jan lacks, and a super team could only cover his ass so much...and armstrong is still the better time trialist


ok, this was the one time i was right...i had to squak a little. i'll shut up now and so will he.

[flydhest]

i'll shut up now and so will he.

I doubt that :D

[93legendti]

In the end the difference between Lance and Jan, Mayo, Heras, Hamilton, etc. is mental. Mayo couldn't handle the pressure, Jan sure can't, Heras couldn't and Hamilton's serial crashes are a mix of fear of success and terrible bike positioning. Lance knows he can win, the others hope they can win.

[zap]

Legend, your right that mental toughness and attitude has a lot to do with winning. Surviving cancer and having seen others suffer probably changed his outlook on suffering, determination and mental focus.

But his leadership, physical abilities and coaching can't be overlooked either. And how about Johan?

Remember when Lance was blown away by Indurain in '95. Lance's improvment post cancer came from the advice of BigMig and Chris C. A lot of factors were put in the pot and out came the current USPS team and Lances abilities to win the TdF.

Jan U. has incredible physical abilities. But, year round determination and focus are weaknesses he readily admits. And as the Dr. posted, Jan doesn't have the cadence to compete against Lance. Probably doesn't have as good a coach either.

[Dekonick]

And - now lance races SMART. He used to ride just flat out - instead of tactically. He is a much better racer now - not only physically, but mentally.

[deechee]

Even if Jan had first picks, I doubt his team would be stronger. I'm sure I read this somewhere else but I wholly agree, Lance has a way of getting his riders to fully support him 110%. They want to work for him, they want to do the best they can for the team, for him, to win. Personally that's how I felt about the T-mobile roster this year - too many leaders, no one leading. I'm not saying having one captain is smart (ie. after Beloki, ONCE was screwed. Likewise Phonak & Hamilton this year) - it just works for LA.

Its the same thing I find with work - depending on my leader/manager I can just blow off a day, or actually care about my work, and do overtime because *I* want to. You all know how tough it can get during a race; its what motivates us/the mental hurdles you get over when you're really hurting and dig deeper than you ever have before...