Getting time-cut out of the tour

[gt6267a]

One idea that I had not considered was presented by Phil Ligget talking about the race:


If I was not riding among the race's leaders, I would be very worried about doing a poor performance and getting eliminated. I am sure some will when the 33 percent of the winner's time rule is applied.


What makes this especially interesting to me is the impact this might have on the other jerseys. For example, what if one or many of the sprinters are not able to come within 33%? Might the sprinters jersey end up going to a more "complete" rider? I imagining a situation where McEwen and Hushovd get eliminated and it comes down to Zabel and O'Grady...

If I remember properly, Mc Ewen has had some poor days in the mountains. Even if only he were eliminated, the points race gets much closer and quickly.

Any thoughts?

Current Points Standings
1. Robbie Mc Ewen (Aus), Lotto-Domo, 225 Pts.
2. Thor Hushovd (Nor), Crédit Agricole, 213 Pts.
3. Erik Zabel (G), T-Mobile, 212 Pts.
4. Stuart O'Grady (Aus), Cofidis, 204 Pts.
5. Danilo Hondo (G), Gerolsteiner, 189 Pts.
6. Tom Boonen (B), Quick Step-Davitamon, 128 Pts.

[TmcDet]

there can not be more than a certain percentage of the field eliminated on any one stage so the sprinter will all get together and stay together on the mountain stages that way the time limits don't come into play for them. I forget what the percentage of riders that can be eliminated is.

[gt6267a]

TMC -- how will they stay together on tomorrow's uphill TT?

I will admit to now knowing this rule, but there is no way for them to form a groupetto(sp?).

[TmcDet]

hadn't thought about it for the TT tomorrow, but with as short a distance as it is wouldn't it be hard for the rule to come into play? The record for that climb is 37.35 and if winner was to get that time then you would have to come in with a time of 49.68 to stay in the race.

[gt6267a]

TMC -- we have the thread to ourselves! I think you make an interesting point about there not being enough space to make the gap. Curious, I checked the results at the Dauphine and applied the 33% rule to the times.

Dauphine Stage on Ventaux
99 riders
7 riders would not have made the 33% time check.

Tour Predictions
157 riders remaining after today's stage
11 pro-rated number of riders per Dauphine to Ventaux to NOT make cut-off.

So, the question is, will the sprinters be the one of my predicted 11?

[alembical]

I expect that the record up will be smashed. This is the first time, at least to my knowledge, where there has not been a 100 mile race leading up to the foot of the climb. These guys on their TT climbing specific bikes could smash the record. A 34 minute climb would turn that cut off into a 45.13 and that could put some good sprinters in trouble. It should be interesting.

Alembical

[alembical]

IMO it would be a shame to see someone like Robbie not make the cutoff and therefore not get to the finish the race, sprint for the final stage, get the green, etc.... Maybe next year the tour organizers will have a 1km stage for the sprinters, now that would be interesting.

alembical

[tom2517]

Lotto's director on a Cyclingnews interview said he worried about his rider McEwen not making the cut, in fact, he said McEwen probably will have to go all out right from the beginning.

[TmcDet]

Dauphine Stage on Ventaux
99 riders
7 riders would not have made the 33% time check.

Tour Predictions
157 riders remaining after today's stage
11 pro-rated number of riders per Dauphine to Ventaux to NOT make cut-off.

So, the question is, will the sprinters be the one of my predicted 11?


just don't forget the Ventaux stage was alot longer than this stage is going to be....I don't think there will be many that don't make the time, and of the ones that don't no one will be a real contender for any of the jerseys.....I would say at tops only 2-3 riders will not make it

[Dr. Doofus]

the big effect of the alpe d'huez tt will be to shell most of the domestiques that could, in a flat tt, just ride tempo and save something for the days to come. many of them will be going balls out from the gun tomorrow

as a result, we may see massive splits on the grand bornand stage, and on friday...a lot of cats will be beyond fried by friday morning

ironic that the alpe tt will have more of an effect on the bottom 60 riders of the tour than on the top 10

[Len J]

the 25% rule.

In the tour, they will waive the maxmum time cutoff if more than 25% of the riders fall outside the Maximum time. This is why large grupetto's form on the multi climb mountainb stages.......if you can get 40 or 50 guys together, you can finish in any time and not get cut.

I wouldn't be surprised if many of the teams "Mail it in" and finish outside the time limit......you only need 39 guys or 4 + per team.....Why should the Domestics' work?

Len