Stage 10 - some observations

[weisan]

Today's stage is the longest in this year's tour, littered with tons of climbs. But take a look at the results and I see some interesting people up in front of the lead group, namely, Erik Zabel and Stuart O' Grady. These two guys seems to have developed into more of an all-rounded racer, and some might add sacrificing some of their speed. Looks like the competition for the green jersey is going to get interesting as the tour progress. Now, if you move further down, you will find Mc Ewen and Tom Boonen down at 25 minutes. It's interesting also to see Bettini and Christian Vandevelde get thrown into that group. Both are respectable climbers and normally I won't expect to find them so far down, but I guess they are playing the roles of super-domestique to their individual team leaders. One other observation: Check out the two riders who broke away early in the race, Mercx and Virenque, both wearing the yellow LiveStrong band. Now, that's solidarity in the ranks for a good cause. :D

http://grahamwatson.com/gw/imagedocs.nsf/images/04tourSt10/$file/5.jpg


STAGE 10 RESULTS:
1, VIRENQUE Richard, FRA, QSD, in 6h 00' 24"
2, KLÖDEN Andréas, GER, TMO, at 05' 19"
3, ZABEL Erik, GER, TMO, at 05' 19"
4, MANCEBO Francisco, ESP, IBB, at 05' 19"
5, VOECKLER Thomas, FRA, BLB, at 05' 19"
6, ARMSTRONG Lance, USA, USP, at 05' 19"
7, TOTSCHNIG Georg, AUT, GST, at 05' 19"
8, KIRCHEN Kim, LUX, FAS, at 05' 19"
9, SCARPONI Michele, ITA, DVE, at 05' 19"
10, CAUCCHIOLI Pietro, ITA, ALB, at 05' 19"
11, MAYO Iban, ESP, EUS, at 05' 19"
12, RASMUSSEN Mickael, DEN, RAB, at 05' 19"
13, BASSO Ivan, ITA, CSC, at 05' 19"
14, SASTRE Carlos, ESP, CSC, at 05' 19"
15, ULLRICH Jan, GER, TMO, at 05' 19"
16, MENCHOV Denis, RUS, IBB, at 05' 26"
17, LEIPHEIMER Levi, USA, RAB, at 05' 26"
18, JULICH Bobby, USA, CSC, at 05' 26"
19, SIMONI Gilberto, ITA, SAE, at 05' 26"
20, LANDALUZE Inigo, ESP, EUS, at 05' 26"

OTHER STAGE NOTABLES:
23, O'GRADY Stuart, AUS, COF, at 05' 26"
25, GONZALEZ Aitor, ESP, FAS, at 05' 26"
26, HAMILTON Tyler, USA, PHO, at 05' 26"
27, MOREAU Christophe, FRA, C.A, at 05' 26"
30, SEVILLA Oscar, ESP, PHO, at 05' 26"
39, VOIGT Jens, GER, CSC, at 05' 26"
42, ZUBELDIA Haimar, ESP, EUS, at 05' 26"
44, HERAS Roberto, ESP, LST, at 05' 26"
65, HINCAPIE George, USA, USP, at 06' 00"
66, LANDIS Floyd, USA, USP, at 06' 00"
71, MERCKX Axel, BEL, LOT, at 06' 18"
129, BETTINI Paolo, ITA, QSD, at 24' 24"
139, VANDEVELDE Christian, USA, LST, at 24' 24"
152, BOONEN Tom, BEL, QSD, at 24' 24"
164, MC EWEN Robbie, AUS, LOT, at 25' 18"

[Dekonick]

I gotta give it to Richard V. Great job on July 14 of all days. Think he will see spots for the remainder of the tour?

[Len J]

That Hamilton lost more time to Armstrong, as did Heras..

Len

[Johny]

That Hamilton lost more time to Armstrong, as did Heras..

Len

If you watch OLN today, you will understand...

[Johny]

Bob Roll: we assume that he (Virenque) is racing "clean" today...

His comment surprised me. He should know this better... :confused: :confused: :confused:

[Dekonick]

:: sigh ::

not the drug thingie again....

either way he perfromed admirably.

I wish the world were a drug free place... but regardless the pro athletes are incredible. Hopefully drug free...but even if not still incredible.

[Larry]

From what I can observe..... Lance is riding a very, very smart tactical race,
at least through Stage 10.

He is defending and watching and looking for weaknesses in his closest rivals. As he said, "I am waiting."
He indeed is waiting to see who is going to step up and press the race in the mountains. Friday and Saturday will be absolutely fantastic, as the real contenders will step up in the long climbs.
From all indications, Lance, Jan, Tyler, and Iban have been saving their energies for the next 10 days.
By Sunday afternoon the overall standings will be quite different.
10 more days of cycling at the highest level!!!! And..... we may be witnessing history in the sport of bicycle racing.

[froze]

But I'm wondering, with Lance down 9 minutes 37 seconds, can he make that time up over the next 10 days as well as being better then the others that are saving their energy enough to win?

[vaxn8r]

He can make that amount of time up in one mountain stage. Look who's ahead of him...no climbers.

[coylifut]

Lance and Ulrich look very focussed. A little mistake by Hamilton and Herras cost them each a few seconds. Lance was in the sprint, Ulrich was the last man on. Voekler is being propelled by the yellow jersey, it will be a shame when the camera shows him going out the back, I'm pulling for him.

[keno]

you left out the best climber in the race, Richard Virenque, who has over 2'30" over Armstrong in the GC and is currently 4th, overall. If memory serves well, Virenque was king of the mountains for the last 6 TdFs. I have no idea whether he has the team or whatever else is needed to be a GC threat. One of the commentators mentioned yesterday that he is one of the best descenders.

Maybe some others will add perspective on him.

keno

[Len J]

you left out the best climber in the race, Richard Virenque, who has over 2'30" over Armstrong in the GC and is currently 4th, overall. If memory serves well, Virenque was king of the mountains for the last 6 TdFs. I have no idea whether he has the team or whatever else is needed to be a GC threat. One of the commentators mentioned yesterday that he is one of the best descenders.

Maybe some others will add perspective on him.

keno

His KOM jerseys came the same way as jalabert, by long breakaways in the mountains where he gets caught in the end, losses time on the last climb but racks up lots of points. By Saturday Night he'll be 5+ minutes down to the leaders.

Len

[Dekonick]

Yeah - He is ahead at the moment but his solo breaks, while amassing lots of points, are costing him energy. He will be wasted by the end of the mountains. - just my belief. I cant wait for today's stage to start!!!

[Dr. Doofus]

keno and froze:

you can rest easily

the french suck

the only reason rickie v was allowed to go off the front is because he won't be around in the top 20 on the real mountain stages (best climber my ass)

tommy v might finish somewhere between 10 and 15, but only because, like simon in 2001, he got a big cushion becuase he's, well, not of any particular significance in this race

its a two-man race, lance and jan

[keno]

here's your chance to take money from a sucker. Give me the numbers of the "real mountain stages". I'll bet you my $50 to your $25 that the average finishing position numbers of Virenque in those stages is 20 or lower (19, 18 ...).

As I said in my earlier post, I haven't a clue, but the wager will bring the race closer to my heart, or left hip, as I carry my $$ in my left pocket.

keno

[Larry]

It appears after approximately 100 kilometers, that the big contenders are sitting content in the main peloton.
This is really a careful plan of attack by the top teams. They are conserving as much as possible, however, the overall pace each day has been really high and very fast. Lance, Jan, Tyler, and Iban are content to sit comfortably in the main group. I think that the top 3 or 4 teams are really taking the fire out of the weaker teams at this point. It is going to show up in the next couple of days in the mountains. I expect Postal, T-Mobile, and Phonak to turn it up a notch tomorrow.

But in the meantime, the strategy is to wait and conserve. Week number 3 is going to be Hell on Wheels, especially the day after Stage 16 (Alpe Duez)
time trial.

Who will have the reserve tank for the last 5 days??
This is exciting and the best is yet to come.

[Tom]

Clearly we don't want to post results, but I wonder if remarking on the current stage's strategy starts us slipping down the spoiler slope?

Sorry, Sandy, shoulda stopped self.

[geezohwiz]

People like Virenque and Petacchi are specialists with no apparent allegiance to their team or the race. They are there for the spotlight only, maybe(?) to get some exposure for their sponsors. Petacchi races for the first ten stages, takes a couple of sprints, then goes home to watch the rest of the race on TV while the rest of the team, who helps him to those stage wins, suffers through to the end. Virenque takes these solo fliers, gets a lot of face time on TV, then fades like a pair of old jeans. Worse, he's now competing against teammate Bettini, who had the lead before yesterday, for the jersey.

I guess at one time Virenque was considered a top rider, but now just grabs the spotlight for the KOM jersey. The "drug thingie" will always be an issue for Virenque because of the way he handled it and because of his "colorful" personality.

[Andreu]

His KOM jerseys came the same way as jalabert, by long breakaways in the mountains where he gets caught in the end, losses time on the last climb but racks up lots of points. By Saturday Night he'll be 5+ minutes down to the leaders.

Len
I recall Jalabert (who I respect immensely as a rider) won the KOM based on a bit of luck, being in the right place at the right time and a stitch-up (gentleman´s agreement). He was a great sprinter before his big crash.
I don´t think Virenque, a true climber, is in the same mould as Jalabert.
A

[Dr. Doofus]

Keno --

yerrron!

doc's 25 says rickie whine-whine will *not* finish in the top 20 on *each and every one* of these stages:

12 -- Castelsarrasin- La Mongie
13 -- Lannemezan -- Plateau De Beille (where LA will make the big punch)
15 -- Valereas -- Villard-de-Lans
16 -- Alpe D'Huez TT
17 -- Bourg d'Oisans -- Le Grand Bornand (meanest day of the Tour)

These are the real mountain days -- although the downhill finishes on stages 15 and 17 may give housewife boy the chance to catch back with the big boys on the descents

the doc likes Moncoutie a lot better...the same talent level (but without the EPO...check out Rickie in 91-93, and then 2001-2004, to see where he really was as a rider...good, audacious, could steal nice wins, but couldn't hit it with the big guns in the mountains) but without the drama queen antics...Rickie is like Emmet on the U.S. Queer as Folk...but without the charm....

[Larry]

Stage 11 is over. Lance even had a sprint at the finish. Psychological??!!

Let the climbing begin. The contenders will take over in the next two days.
It could be a game of cat and mouse..... but, someone will go for it in the next two days.

Remember...... Armstrong is the supreme master of stategy.
The man is thinking all of the time, and he will
exploit the others weaknesses. :bike: :beer: :bike:

[weisan]

Tom, I hear you. Soooorrrrreeeeeeee.

[froze]

Vax, didn't a French climber beat everyone yesterday? Can Lance beat this guy then?

[Ozz]

Vax, didn't a French climber beat everyone yesterday? Can Lance beat this guy then?

Yes, Lance can easily beat him. And so can 5 to 10 other guys.

Richie V. got excited on Bastille Day and wanted to be in the headlines, so he shot his wad and won....

He will now ride along with the peloton and try to recover so he can finish the race. He may be able to grab some cheap mountain points along the way, but no more long solo escapes.

[MartyE]

Some random thoughts on all of this.

Back to original question, I think Hincappie is in the same catagory
of riders who suddenly do much better in the climbing stages
than expected. However I don't think they (George, Stuey, Erik)
will be able to hang once they get to the real mountain stages.

Voekler may in fact be a spoiler in all of this, he is riding very smart
and as a climber, he is somewhat untested. I think he could be a
dark horse here and a real threat to the GC guys if he hangs in the
mountains.

Virenque could conceivably finish high in the mountain stages but
even if he did so will ultimately lose during the final TT.

Levi is riding very smart and I would expect a top 5 finish for him
if he isn't on the podium come Paris.

Just my $.02 worth

Marty

[keno]

My proposition was his "average" position finish. You walking back your comment that RV "won't be around in the top 20 on the real mountain stages"? Where did this each and every come from, certainly not from what I wrote? Your mouth and your money parting ways?

Here's your choice, which, of course, if you make a choice (otherwise we have no wager) it has to be made before midnight tonight EST, with tires at 140 ppsi:

1. my bet as originally proposed, or

2. my $50 to your $25 that Virenque will finish in the top 20 on at least one of the mountain stages you propose. In other words, if he finishes in the top 20 on one of the stages, I win. Otherwise, you win.

keno

[Dr. Doofus]

Keno --

A little Rickie mountain history, just to get you thinking....


1993: finishes in the top 20 in three mountain stages. Second-best frenchman in the Tourm after that legend, Jean-Phillipe Dojwa.

1994: suddenlt gets very, very strong.... Out of the top 15 overall after the stage to Hautacam, he joins 10 other low GC climbers in a romp off the front (that Banesto, Geweiss, and Carrera made no attempt to pursue). Wins the stage. After that, he is marked and doesn't come close to winning another. He does, however, perfect the Rickie Polka Dot Strategy: the overall contenders conserve their energy on the summits *until the final climb*, and therefore, aren't contending the polka-dot summit sprints; the explosive climbers who can win stages by attacking the big guns and riding away from them on the last climb (Pantani, Ugroumov) conserve their energy on the Polka-Sprints, saving glycogen for the last, decisive mountain; Rickie starts grabbing lots of Polka-Sprints, becuase the big guns and stage winners don't care. RickV wins the climber's jersey, although it is clear from the finish order of the mountain stages that he is far from the best climber in the Tour. Pantani derides him as a "hilltop sprinter, not a climber."

1995: Rickie wins climber's jersey using the same strategy as the year before. Pantani is clearly the Tour's best climber, exploding to two stage wins. Ricky is ridden well off Indurain's wheel halfway up the climb to LaPlange (won by Zulle)....

1996: Ricky wins climber's jersey using *the plan*. Riis is the most dynamic climber of the Tour. Ricky doesn't win a summit finish. Yawn.

1997: The French press hails Ricky as a demigod for finishing second in the Tour. The only problem was that the guy in first 1) caught and passed him on a climb 2) caught and passed him in a Time Trial two days later, and 3) won by over ten minutes. Pantani wins two mountaintop stages in spectacular fashion. Ricky buys a stage win from Ulrich (at least Willy Voet and Bernard Roussell...and a few Festina teammates, say it was purchased...but what do they know).

Ok, into the 21st century. Ricky, his climbing "powers" reduced, now becomes a very effective and entertaining lone-break artist, winning the stage to Ventoux, and now, two moyenne montagne stages. He is noticably absent from the group that matters on any HC summit finish (as if he ever wasn't...). Because there are still points for the taking on the early climbs, he wins the Polka Jersey....

2003: Mountain finishes --

Alpe D'Huez : 35th
Gap: 36th
Plateau Bonsacre: 13th (oh la la)
Loundenville: 3rd (peloton lets him go with Simioni...the real race is behind)
Luz Ardiden: 26th (as usual, not around when the racing is serious)


He's a handy guy for a stage win. Hardly a great rider. Never the Tour's top climber...only the guy who exploited the points structure of the climber's competition at a time when the way the mountains were raced changed dramatically in the Tour, with the *real* climbers (Indurain, Ulrich, Riis, Pantani, Ugroumov, Armstrong, Beloki, Heras, Mayo), saving their energy for the last climb, and not wasting it on jersey-sprints. This year the scoring has changed.... Ricky may still keep that jersey, but to do it, he'll have to win one or more of the premier stages...his past track record isn't promising in that regard....

Rickie won't finish in the Top 20 on each key mountain stage: too easy of abet for me to win

Rickie will finish in the Top 20 on at least one mountain stage (but *not* a summit finish): too easy of a bet for you to win

What we need is a competitive compromise....


And Ricky still sucks.

[keno]

my creative wagering juices have petered out. As we Red Sox fans say, wait 'til next year.

keno

[Dr. Doofus]

jesus what happened this year...trot and nomar come back and *then* the sox go to turds...(lifetime Bill Lee fan here)

ok, we'll go with the original.

My 25 says Rickie won't place in the Top 20 at:

La Mongie
Plateau de Beille
Alpe d'Huez
Le Grand Bornard


now we wait until I send you yer 25

[keno]

Where will I be sending the $50?

keno

[Larry]

The mountain stages tomorrow and Saturday look absolutely incredible.
I expect Lance, Jan, Tyler, Mayo, Heras, and a select few others to be right there in the hunt. They will spend much time stalking each other.
I believe that Mayo will attempt to assert himself and really attack on the last climb. The others may even let him go for a short while. Mayo has to play the catch up game to have any sort of a chance at the overall win.
He must take risks and attack..... attack with avengeance and relentlessly.

Somehow Lance will need to have a strategy to control the next two days.
He must control some really hungry riders!!!! :bike: :bike: :banana:

[keno]

now I'm really confused. Since The Open wasn't on yet, I was rereading our 21st century Vegas visits the Tour dee France bet, and I'm not sure what the bet is. I also noticed that you removed one of the stages that you originally proposed. Also, your last post seems to agree to both my original (average) proposition and your modified "easy" for me proposition, that is no top twenty in an adjusted list of stages (I can't begin to guess your omission strategy, which I am sure exists).

My head is beginning to hurt a lot. Are you related to Lewis Carroll?

If we can get this straight before 9:00 EST this morning, we've got a bet. It ain't gonna be no fun for me if I don't know what I'm betting on. I need to know what the fat lady will be singing about.

BTW, your Recreational Vehicle tutorial was both impressive and interesting. Riddle me this, though, as I truly am not knowledgeable regarding the Tour. RV's strategy got him those dots and some bucks, I assume, over a bunch of Tours. What makes a strategy that works bogus? Why didn't some other demi-climber out bogus him and get the gals?

keno

[Dr. Doofus]

keno:

you win if he finishes in the top twenty on any one of these stages:

La Mongie
Plateau de Beille
Alpe D'Huez
Grand Bornard

his average placing could be 35th (which it probably will be)...all he has to do is get top 20 on one of those four days, you win.

i took out one stage because its placing and profile lends itself to a long break by Rickie while Lance and Jan watch each other....


there's nothing wrong with how RV got his mountains jerseys...what annoys a lot of fans (and a few pros) is how much of a drama queen Rickie was about it all, talking himself up as the best climber, an overall contender, and mugging for the cameras...with his loquacity only matched by his lack of significant results, he was the anti-indurain (say nothing, win lots)....

[keno]

they're at the starting gate and we're on.

keno