Future of cycling equipment?

[Mshue]

In the current edition of Road Bike Magazine, Wayne Stetina of Shimano was asked to name the most important innovations in cycling equipment he envisions in the next few years. He mentioned the following three items (paraphrasing from memory here, so forgive me if I don’t get this exactly right):

1. Tubeless tires will become much more prevalent in the next two years and will materially close the weight gap between clinchers and tubulars;

2. Electronic shifting will be the norm on high-end bikes within five years; and

3. Durable sub-14 pound bikes will become commonplace within the next few years.

The first one sounds promising to me. I’m not sure what problem the second one is solving (maybe I’m getting too old), and I can’t imagine how the average LBS will service electronic shifting mechanisms. As to the third item, I love the ride quality and look of my Zank enough that I don’t mind giving up a couple of pounds to a carbon bike, but I might care about giving up four pounds. Should I? Or will some of the weight savings necessarily be from parts that I can hang on my Zank if I so choose.

I thought his comments were provocative and am curious what you all think.

[Pete Serotta]

Tubeless tires have been coming for a few years now.......Because of a weight advantage they do have a place with some tri and high end road riding folks. I personally do not know anyone who uses the new ones. I and some other "oldies" do like the "old" tubulars though they can not be cost justified.

Will either of the above constitute a "major" market penetration....my guess is not BUT Wayne is far more knowledgeable than I. It will also depend on price and the "viewed" value add to the purchaser.

As to electronic shifting - for me the recreational rider - probably not on my priority list. I was fortunate to be doing some IT consulting for MAVIC when they were marketing the ZAP. Had plenty of opportunity to ride it and also had no problems with it BUT it was not for me. (I actually liked, and still have some of their mechanical stuff,)

Variety is the "spice of life" and new product will come and go......some is good, some is perceived ad good, and some will go down as garbage - BUT it will be fun to watch.

[paczki]

Find yourself with a broken unfixable electronic shifter and a snapped carbon frame in the middle of the Arenberg forest at midnight, at least you'll be happy that there's still air in your tires! Innovation 1 sounds by far the most promising of the three. I say this having just stretched a Conti Competition for the first time.

[Kines]

It's all just crazy talk.

KN

[sg8357]

You can't fix an STI shifter at the LBS now, an electric shifter is no worse.
Electronic will really catch on in the rec market, rpm + cheap bb power meter could make for a fairly smart automatic transmission.

In 25 years the hipsters will discover cable shifting, it'll be the fixed craze all over again.

Scott G.

[Grant McLean]

Interesting coincedence that the things coming are made by shimano?

....


g

[RPS]

3. Durable sub-14 pound bikes will become commonplace within the next few years.Due in part to all the crazy weather we've had this year, this new standard makes me one entire bike overweight. :crap:
And I'm still skinny by US standards. :rolleyes:

[victoryfactory]

I would love to ride a bike that has no cables.
I'm all for innovation.
Put all the new stuff out there, and let the marketplace
sort out the good from the bad. (It usually does)

The Earth is not flat!

VF

[cpg]

Reminds me of the predictions of disc brakes taking over. We'll see. I like innovation but rarely can it be predicted. Usually the best innovations just happen without a press conference.

Curt

[1centaur]

"will some of the weight savings necessarily be from parts that I can hang on my Zank if I so choose."

Given that we're talking something close to 2 pounds of weight savings and CF frames are in the 2 pound range, I'm guessing that component weight savings will be a decent part of it. We might have 650 grams high end frames and 200 gram forks by then, vs. let's say 850 and 250 now, but I have long said wheels should lose a bunch of weight as CF engineering lightens rims and spokes, and I think cranksets could easily lose 150 grams. Chains, rings/clusters,tires,stems, posts and bars all have potential for weight loss, IMO. Whether you want to hang all that plastic off a steel frame is another question.

The feeling of freewheeling down a hill will be very different as bikes get much lighter.

[Grant McLean]

Reminds me of the predictions of disc brakes taking over. We'll see. I like innovation but rarely can it be predicted. Usually the best innovations just happen without a press conference.

Curt


Likewise,
i don't remember Shimano predicting that Sram would take over MTB spec,
or that carbon fiber road cranks would be the norm either...


g

[spiderman]

that riding tubulars is cheaper!
...i ordered 10 gommitalia espresso tubulars recently
and compared to the number of flats/tubes i've changed out
with my clinchers
over the same timespan,
the tubulars are a bargain
and easier/faster to change out
by far!
so, why convert to a system
that is a cut below and more expensive than an old school tubular??

[labratmatt]

I can see tubless wheels/tires becoming very popular in the next couple of years, but I'm not so sure about the other two items.

[Kines]

that riding tubulars is cheaper!
...i ordered 10 gommitalia espresso tubulars recently
and compared to the number of flats/tubes i've changed out
with my clinchers
over the same timespan,
the tubulars are a bargain
and easier/faster to change out
by far!
so, why convert to a system
that is a cut below and more expensive than an old school tubular??


Damn, there must be a lot of broken bottles where you ride!
(broken bottles that don't also cut through tubulars, that is...)

I ride with a tube in my jersey pocket that is probably close to dry rotting since I can't remember the last time I had a flat. I like tubbies for racing, but I don't see myself putting on the big miles with a tire strapped to me or my bike.

Now tubeless? Fuhgettaboutit!

KN

[Tobias]

Given that we're talking something close to 2 pounds of weight savings and CF frames are in the 2 pound range, I'm guessing that component weight savings will be a decent part of it. We might have 650 grams high end frames and 200 gram forks by then, vs. let's say 850 and 250 now, but I have long said wheels should lose a bunch of weight as CF engineering lightens rims and spokes, and I think cranksets could easily lose 150 grams. Chains, rings/clusters,tires,stems, posts and bars all have potential for weight loss, IMO.I figure that when I get dropped on a climb – and it will happen -- while riding a bike that is half as heavy it will demoralize me twice as bad.

Bikes are already less than 10 percent, so other than serious racing how much can we actually gain?

[spiderman]

(broken bottles that don't also cut through tubulars, that is...)

what a great deal i got on the tubulars!
maybe i need to start getting my clincher tubes in bulk as well...
...on second thought...
i'll just put more miles on the tubulars.
obtw,
be careful about the can't remember the last flat comments...
...i usually have one just when i open my mouth.
maybe that's why i've been having so many lately...

[coylifut]

that riding tubulars is cheaper!
...i ordered 10 gommitalia espresso tubulars recently
and compared to the number of flats/tubes i've changed out
with my clinchers
over the same timespan,
the tubulars are a bargain
and easier/faster to change out
by far!
so, why convert to a system
that is a cut below and more expensive than an old school tubular??

i agree with you that i can't see tubless replacing tubulars. however, if you can change a tubular tire faster than i can change a clincher tube (under three minutes) please reglue your tires.