TDF -- Tuesday -- Spoiler -- Results Discussed

[gt6267a]

Now, that was a stage! People were crashing left and right on the stones! Hincapie and Eki looked rather impressive out front.

People talk about a team being weak and today was a great example of the impact. At one point, Mayo's group was within about 1min but his group ended up 3+ minutes down. That hurts. Especially considering that he'll probably lose another minute or two or two and half tomorrow.

One thought for discussion, there is the unspoken rule that you don't attack a leader when he is down. Is it only the leader of the race, the yellow jersey? According to this rule, should they not have allowed Mayo to catch up?

[bostondrunk]

Mayo 4 minutes down, hes done. And Petacchi and his team can't get it right. Petacchi ain't gonna get a single stage this year. And Hamilton's team is gonna blow the TTT.

[Bruce K]

I think it may be just the jerseys.

There was no "attack" when he went down. The peloton just kept on going. On top of that, he wasn't in the lead group when the crash occurred.

He also had an opportunity to catch back on but Euskatel just didn't have the horses to get the job done.

Yesterday it was Heras but the Liberty boys dropped back in force and pulled him quickly back to the peloton.

It is astonishing that one rider's fortunes have basically vanished on Stage 3. It will be a very long 2.5 weeks for Mayo. Hopefully he will ride for pride and honor and give us some great climbs.

BK

[Climb01742]

i bet mayo will seek redemption in the mountains. the alpe TT may be his moment. it looks like lance was right about tour being sorted out before the mountains.

interesting to see how much energy the driving forces at the head of the peleton -- postal, phonak and t-mobile -- spent today, with tomorrow's TTT coming. bet they tried to give it just enough gas to trounce mayo but not enough to waste tomorrow.

[Bruce K]

They're all still hanging in there.

Julich, Leipheimer, Landis, Hamilton. I know things will change dramatically after tomorrow's TTT but it's pretty cool to see them all doing so well.

BK

[MartyE]

I think Mayo now will go for stage wins like Alpe d'Huez ITT
but his GC hopes are gone.
3 stages into the tour and his chances are pretty much
blown. I see him being 6 minutes back after tomorrows
TTT.
Predict that USPS will be in yellow tomorrow and then
defend the rest of the tour.
Jan and Tyler 12 and 18 seconds back respectively
Heras loses over a minute to USPS.

Great stage today, I think they should include the pave in
every TdF.

Marty

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . with Climb. 1:30 is not THAT much time to make up over 2.5 weeks. don't forget that Mayo took off on Huez last year and put what, about a minute(?) into everyone . . .

An interesting stage today, but from the Velo News live coverage I read it doesn't sound like anybody is REALLY out of it except Moreau and, of course, Marco Velo (Great name!). I just don't think Moreau has the horses personally to make up that time.

BBDave

[bostondrunk]

Hell, Mayo should just ride the ttt by himself at 30 km/h since he can't lose more than 2.5 minutes anyway based on the new rule, save his energy...

[alembical]

While they can only lose 2.5 minutes, don't they also still have to make the cut off time? Anyone know just how difficult that is? Isn't it just within x% (maybe 10%) of the winning time?

Alembical

[bostondrunk]

Actually, I thought the cutoff time didn't apply this time for the ttt....who knows..From Cyclingnews.com:

"A new rule for this year means that no rider can lose more than 2:30 on this stage, something that may make the car ride home a little better for anyone suffering a mechanical."

[Dr. Doofus]

You could see this coming...think of the stage before the TTT in 2001, or the Zaragossa epics in the Vuelta the past few years...if Bruyneel can isolate a key rival and force a split on a flat stage, he'll make it happen...unlike my stupid earlier post, the doc and I should have posted our thoughts about this stage over the winter, namely, that it was tailor-made for T-Mobile and Postal, two teams with classics depth who have a number of their strong cobblecats as Tour domestiques, and have leaders who could win Roubaix if they wanted to...whereas the skinny orange guys (see "Bloody Weather" post) would have trouble...christ, imagine if there *had* been a wind today...Mayo would have lost six minutes....


The Limoge-St. Flour stage could see a couple of splits, too...the profile looks a lot like the Mende stage in '95, and if there are a couple of frenzied days before that stage, there will be a similarly-frayed peloton at the start line...whether Postal would risk forcing the action on that stage is another matter entirely...they usually target two or three days, and JB and LA are all too well aware of the need to measure out effort over the three weeks....

The key days:
La Mongie (not Plateau Des Beilles..changed our mind)
Le Grand Bornand

the Alpe TT won't decide the Tour.

the day before the TT could see a Baragui 03/Pamplona 96 type frenzy. some team with a guy in the top 10 will make that day hard for everybody...Rabo or CSC

La Mongie is set up like Les Arcs in 96, the Hautacam in 99, La Plange in 95, or Hautacam in 94...first day in the high mountains, a long flat stage with a HC climb at the end...Rominger said those stages were the hardest, because the change in rhythm was so abrupt, and the losses on the big climb can be catastrophic for a guy's GC chances...LA keeps downplaying that day, which can only mean....

Ok, lately, the doc has been "living in a dream world" and an "idiot"...we'll see how these prognostications hold up (and I wish this sinus infection would clear up so the doc can leave the friggin house)...and drunk, we had Alyson delete the thread....

[bostondrunk]

I meant 'idiot' in the nicest possible way... :beer:
the same way I talk about dbrk's novels...

[Ozz]

...whereas the skinny orange guys ...

LOL - Nice description!

Armstrong will need those minutes on Mayo when the mountains come. Just fewer guys Lance will need to keep an eye on later!

[Climb01742]

i'll crawl out on a limb and say whoever wins the alpe TT WON"T win the tour. it's made for a guy who wants to win one stage. the contenders will, i think, stay close, minimize any time gaps, and save energy to exploit those who crack the next day, or in the final flat TT. i bet lance knows EXACTLY how fast he'll ride the alpe to damage others but not fry himself.

[gt6267a]

. . . with Climb. 1:30 is not THAT much time to make up over 2.5 weeks. BBDave

BBD -- true, 1:30 would not have sealed the deal, but it was 3:53. He is now back at 4:23 on the GC while LA is 16' back, JU is 31' back, and TH is 32' back. So, the lead is more like 4 minutes and after tomorrow probably 6 minutes.

I'll agree and say that Mayo could kick some butt in the mountains and make up a lot of time. BUT, 4-6 minutes is a lot to make up. Plus, he will most likely loose a bit more on the flat TT stages. Let's say 2-3 minutes. So, Mayo needs to beat LA, TH, and JU by 6-9 min in the mountains to even out his loses. That is a lot ask. Not saying it's impossible, but it is a very tall order.


today makes me think of the often stated sentiment:

you can't win the tour on flats, but you can lose it.

[BumbleBeeDave]

Have Euskaltel lost more than 2:30 every other time thay have done a TTT against USPS? How much time did they lose last year? There seems to be this universal impression they will be pedalling penny farthings or something and lose HUGE time, which I am not sure will be the case . . . How much time did the other teams lose against Lance & Co. last year in the TTT?

BBDave

[gt6267a]

they lost 3:22. so if we are to project the future, pile on 2:30 on top of the 4 min and Mayo is 6:30 behind. OUCH!

2003 Results from Velonews

1. U.S. Postal 1:18:27
2. ONCE-Eroski 1:18:57, at 0:30
3. Team Bianchi 1:19:10, at 0:43
4. Ibanesto.Com 1:19:32, at 1:05
5. Quick Step-Davitamon 1:19:50, at 1:23
6. Team Telekom 1:19:57, at 1:30
7. Caldirola-So.Di 1:19:59, at 1:32
8. Credit Agricole 1:19:59, at 1:32
9. Ag2r Prevoyance 1:20:05, at 1:38
10. CSC 1:20:12, at 1:45
11. Gerolsteiner 1:20:16, at 1:49
12. Fassa Bortolo 1:20:20, at 1:53
13. Alessio 1:20:32, at 2:05.
14. Cofidis 1:20:33, at 2:06.
15. Brioches La Boulangere 1:20:57, at 2:30.
16. Rabobank 01:21:08, at 2:41.
17. Saeco-Macchine Per Caffe 1:21:29, at 3:02.
18. Euskaltel-Euskadi 1:21:49, at 03:22.
19. Fdjeux.Com 1:21:56, at 03:29.
20. Jean Delatour 1:22:04, at 03:37.
21. Kelme-Costa Blanca 1:22:16, at 03:49.
22. Lotto-Domo 01:23:20, at 04:53

[Dr. Doofus]

With you climb...

becuase we are geeks, the doc and the mouse and I will name off the Alpe D'Huez winners we can remember (we didn't start paying attention until 1980...)

Kuiper
Winnen
Zoetemelk
Rooks
(friggin goudaheads)

Guerini
Echave
Bugno
Pantani
Hinault
Armstrong
Fignon

four of those guys won the Tour the same year...as the cliche goes, you can't win the Tour on the Alpe (exception: Armstrong 01, Hinault 85), but you can lose it there....

[my2cents]

so starting with just 8 riders (or did they lose someone else as well), being mentally abused (and physically?) today, it seems a safe bet he will lose 2'30'' tomorrow.

[bostondrunk]

I guess it is possible that Ulrich could be in Yellow by the end of tomorrow, no? Or is there anyone on his team ahead of him overall at the moment?

[Ozz]

so starting with just 8 riders (or did they lose someone else as well), being mentally abused (and physically?) today, it seems a safe bet he will lose 2'30'' tomorrow.

It seems odd that knowing they are weak in the TTT, that "the skinny orange guys" ( ;) ) would not recruit some riders this past year that would help them out.

They sure could have used some horses today to pull back to the main field.

[alembical]

Drunk,
I think that if T-Mobile won or possibly even loses closely to US, then Zabel would be in the yellow. I think he is in front of Jan and Lance.

Alembical

[gt6267a]

It seems odd that knowing they are weak in the TTT, that "the skinny orange guys" ( ;) ) would not recruit some riders this past year that would help them out.

They sure could have used some horses today to pull back to the main field.

The Orange guys do have one serious limiation due to their sponsorship. The entire team must come from the Basque country. Therefore, they have a limited pool of riders from which to pick. Now, that does not mean there are no diesels to be found in the Basque region, but picking from a region that mostly celebrates climbing and NOT a world wide pool of talent definetly hurts them.

[BumbleBeeDave]

Thanks for the info. I see what you mean now . . . I know Mayo is good, but I don't see him making up that much time barring some disaster befalling all the other GC favorites.

BBDave

[Bruce K]

Actually Lance is the highest placed "favorite" at the moment in 4th Place.

[alembical]

I was wrong, Lance is in front of Zabel, but if Tmobile would win, Zabel would be in Yellow, not Jan. Not that it matters right now.
G
eneral classification after stage 3:

1 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Lotto-Domo 13.42.34
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Fassa Bortolo 0.01
3 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team CSC 0.09
4 Jean-Patrick Nazon (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 0.12
5 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.16
6 Danilo Hondo (Ger) Gerolsteiner 0.22
7 Erik Zabel (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.23
8 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems
9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 0.24
10 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.25
11 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 0.26
12 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor
13 Tom Boonen (Bel) Quick Step-Davitamon 0.28
14 Angel Vicioso Arcos (Spa) Liberty Seguros 0.29
15 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC
16 Bram de Groot (Ned) Rabobank 0.30
17 Kurt-Asle Arvesen (Nor) Team CSC
18 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.31
19 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.32
20 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems
21 Jaan Kirsipuu (Est) AG2R Prévoyance 0.33

[jeffg]

With you climb...

becuase we are geeks, the doc and the mouse and I will name off the Alpe D'Huez winners we can remember (we didn't start paying attention until 1980...)

Kuiper
Winnen
Zoetemelk
Rooks
(friggin goudaheads)

Guerini
Echave
Bugno
Pantani
Hinault
Armstrong
Fignon

four of those guys won the Tour the same year...as the cliche goes, you can't win the Tour on the Alpe (exception: Armstrong 01, Hinault 85), but you can lose it there....

How about Andy Hampsten?

[alembical]

Just saw this at RBR, re: the TTT. ( http://forums.roadbikereview.com/showthread.php?t=9326 )

Someone looked up the official rule. This is how it reads:

The procedure for establishing the general individual time ranking is as follows:

Times for all riders are calculated according to the gap between them and the 5th man of the winning team (scratch time).

If this gap is less than that given in the table below, then the actual time recorded by the timekeepers will be taken.

If the gap is more than that given in the table below, then the rider will receive the time of the winning team plus the additional number of seconds indicated in the table below according to the place of their team.

20’’ for the 2nd team
30’’ for the 3rd team
40’’ for the 4th team
50’’ for the 5th team
1’ for the 6th team
1’10 for the 7th team
1’20 for the 8th team
1’30 for the 9th team
1’40 for the 10th team
1’50 for the 11th team
2’00 for the 12th team
2’10 for the 13th team
2’20 for the 14th team
2’30 for the 15th team
2’35 for the 16th team
2’40 for the 17th team
2’45 for the 18th team
2’50 for the 19th team
2’55 for the 20th team
3’00 for the 21st team

Riders who arrive on their own after the 5th rider in their team will be credited for the general ranking with the actual time they took to complete the stage.

However, riders finishing outside of the permitted finishing times (coefficient 6) will be disqualified.

As far as the general team ranking is concerned, the actual time of the 5th man in each team will be the time recorded for this ranking.

In the event that a team no longer has at least five riders, those remaining must finish the stage within the permitted finishing time cited in article 22 (coefficient 6). The time recorded for the general ranking will be the finishing time of the last rider in that team.

This last paragraph sounds to me like the cut-off time must still be met. Does anyone know for sure? This rule sounds more and more stupid to me. I had known about the 2.5 minute cut off and somewhat understand that, but if the 2nd place team is 1 minute down, they only lose 20 seconds. That sounds like a bad rule to me. Anyone know what the cutoff time is? I had thought 10% after the finishing time (presumably for the 5th rider of the winning time).

Alembical

edited to add: I had thought that the maximum loss was 2.5 minutes. Is this not right? Someone please tell me that this post from RBR is incorrect and that this is not the rule. I understand the rule if it just says if you are more than 2.5 minutes down, you will be given a time of 2.5 minutes plus the winning time (but that does make the question of why the last place team would be given the same time as another team who had beaten them, but still lost 2.5 minutes).

[Dekonick]

What a stage! Ya gotta love cobblestones...

In some ways (relating to an earlier post RE: 'the skinny orange guys' recruiting TTT Domestiques...) one must respect Euskaltel for their continued support and sponsorship. I also like that they do recruit only Basque riders. I think its amazing they do as well as they do considering the small pool of talent they have to pick from.

My bet is Mayo will go for a win on Alpe D'huez - or Euskaltel may decide to save up for some stage wins in the Pyrenees - after all they are a Basque team, and if you cant win the overall tour wouldnt it make sense to go for broke in your backyard?

Tomorrow will be interesting. Wonder how Jan and friends will do tomorrow.

Predictions?

[Ozz]

I too like the support the region gives their cycling team! I just figure there has to be some riders that can ride flats. Also, the riders are not exclusively from Spain. I believe Unai Extebarria is from Venezuela...perhaps the riders just need basque heritage or a funny sounding name?

Regardless, they have some riders that are contenders and should find a good supporting cast!

What's the weather forecast for the TTT tomorrow? Obviously, Postal and Telekom are the favorites. It will be interesting to see how Phonak does. I don't think Hamilton can afford to give up much time (even with the new rules) to either Jan or Lance.

BBD - Make sure you track down some good photos for tomorrow! I had the shot of Postal finishing as my computer wall paper until Xmas last year!

[Dekonick]

Hehe -
-exte- almost guranteed to be a Basque!

Basque's come from France and Spain. Somehow the French region is often forgotten by the press... but if you go to St Jean De Luz, Bayonne, or Biarritz and ask the locals if they are French, they will probably respond that they are Basque.

There is a good book (if you are geeky like me and like to read) titled:

The world Basque history

If you ever wanted to know about this region its a good (but slow) read.

.................................................. .................................................. ...
looking outside I WISH I was not at work today............................................. .............

[Ozz]

There is a good book (if you are geeky like me and like to read) titled:

The world Basque history

If you ever wanted to know about this region its a good (but slow) read.

.................................................. .................................................. ...
looking outside I WISH I was not at work today............................................. .............

Got it. Have not read it (yet). There is another one by the same author about Cod and it's impact on history. That's right...fish. ;)

[gt6267a]

watching the race again on OLN, I notice the Levi L. falls off the back, his team drops back, and they bring him back to the field. no getting dropped, well done. This is what Mayo needed.

[Dr. Doofus]

yup...all-spanish teams suck. you have to love how their fans back'em up, but that's the bottom line. all-spanish teams suck.

note that is not "all spanish teams suck." ONCE and Banesto did quite well...but one squad had some guys named Stephens, Zulle, Bruyneel, Jalabert, and Dufaux, while the other had some key domestiques by the name of Nijober (whose job was to be Indurain's bodyguard and ride a bike with the same setup just in case Mig needed one), De Las Cuevas, Bernard, and Rue....


Euskatel are like Kelme, Banesto pre-Delgado, Fagor pre-Roche, BH, Caja Rural with Lejaretta, or **** what was Fausto Ruperez's team...Zor(?)...entertaining, dangerous, but not put together to win anything other than the Vuelta, if they're lucky....


why can I remember this crap, but not the names of my students?

[shaq-d]

why can I remember this crap, but not the names of my students?

speaking as one-who's-been-there-too, it's cause most students don't give a flying fadoo, students come and go, and students number in the hundreds if not the thousands in one's career. a race, though, happens once a year, and
"lives are on the line", so to speak.

sd

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . Aren’t they that family of trapeze artists? . . . :rolleyes:

BBDave

[BarryG]

i'll crawl out on a limb and say whoever wins the alpe TT WON"T win the tour. it's made for a guy who wants to win one stage. the contenders will, i think, stay close, minimize any time gaps, and save energy to exploit those who crack the next day, or in the final flat TT.

Because it's only one climb and not overly long, I think the contenders WILL go all out on Alpe d'Huez. Ulrich says that Armstrong was bluffing on Ventoux, and I think we'll find out the answer here.

Barry

[Andreu]

yup...all-spanish teams suck. you have to love how their fans back'em up, but that's the bottom line. all-spanish teams suck.
Euskatel are like Kelme,....


I think the insistence of using exclusively Basques or riders with Basque surnames/heritage is seriously flawed both politically and from a results point of view. This is nationalism/patriotism (call it what you will) gone barmy.
Anyway from a results point of view, has any modern team (post-1990) used riders exclusively from 1 country?
The French and Italians used to be pretty good at picking "national" teams 20 or more years ago - didn´t they?
(the Brits tried it in the 80´s with disastrous results whatever happened to Joey McLoughlin?)
A

[Dr. Doofus]

after he won the Kellog's in 88 (when Peugeot was saying wonderful..."yeah we'll stick with him another year" things about him) he had his Peugeot contract renewed for '89, but then another round of knee problems (and the addition of Lemond and Lammerts) put him out of the picture.

7-Eleven wasn't interested and Continental teams didn't want to pick up a Brit with a history of tendonitis....

In short, talented guy has career undone by knee operations...he did two years as a British-based pro and then quit.


Why do I recall this crap? Why can't I ID the jerk? Whatever....