Bold Stupid Prediction: Serotta Full Carbon 2007/2008

[Dr. Doofus]

Flipping through some industry pub crap in the tub this morning, the Doc noticed the (by now old) news that Deda is putting out custom carbon lugsets to match their tubes. Reynolds and Columbus will inevitably follow suit, and a builder like Serotta will be able to have stocks of carbon lugs and tubes on hand, and they'll make...duh, custom full carbon frames. Only Ben and Kelly know what they're up to, but I say we see a full carbon in 3-4 years, easily.

[vaxn8r]

Yep, CF kits are already here.

http://www.landsharkbicycles.com/

I've maintained all along that the reason the Ottrott exists is because it's the easy way to get a CF bike put together without messing with molds or custom building multiple sets of lugs in all the necessary sizes. It's an expensive proposition for a single builder. I agree it's only a matter of time for a full CF Serotta.

[Dr. Doofus]

yes, and no, vax....

it was the best way at the time for serotta to do a carbon-tubed bike...but the ride quality is different (I and he did the "around the block" check on one kind of in my size that we built up when we were Dr. Shop Rat last year) than an all carbon bike. The aim for that bike was a particular ride response....

dunno if I'd get a plastic serotta...probably rather have a fillet semi-compact CSi so I could ride with Climb.

[BumbleBeeDave]

Serotta has recently purchased a CNC machine and we saw it at the open house. They also hired a full time operator from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Very impressive . . .

With this machine they can easily manufacture molds for whatever they want to make--including carbon lugs.

BBDave

[shinomaster]

I agree carbon is their future..

[Bruce K]

The Parlee I was testing is made that way.

They build custom frames by cutting the tubes to the correct length and clamping them in a jig. The lugs are die cut carbon "fabric" impregnated with a bonding agent. The lugs are wrapped around the joints and clamped into CNC molds with heating elements in them.

The elements are connected to a PC that controls temperture and duration of the heat cycle. When it's all done, the frame has carbon lugs bonded to the carbon tubes.

The onle metal in the whole frame is teh rear dropouts and bottom bracket "liner".

It sounds like Ben & Co. could be heading down that same road at some point.

BK

[vaxn8r]

Sounds a lot like how they make Calfee's....in an Easy Bake oven ;)

[Climb01742]

i'd bet carbon serotta within 12 months.

and doc doof, soon i'll post photos of my fillet, compact CSi...as sweet as steel can be. you NEED one of these. kelly is a magician. (i'm in the midst of a personal comparo...CSi vs. custom marcelo vs. luigino...oh, the things i do for you guys! :rolleyes: )

[Russ]

Would the S bend stays be easy to make in carbon, with the same benefits we get from the metal stays?

I surely hope they don't do something a la Colnago.... Surely looks crappy on those bikes!

[jerk]

the jerk knows it's sacreligous but what serotta should buy is a heat treatment facility so they can use the modern metals and start building race bikes again....

[Bill Bove]

I'm with the jerk on this one. I absolutely love my 10 year old Colorado Al. It is still my go to bike when I want to go fast. I think I'd really like one made with the new super light aluminums. The ORBEA Iban Mayo Replica looks like a sweet ride, I'd bet it would be even sweeter with Serotta written on the downtube.

[dbrk]

It's hard out there in the bicycle business these days because the Jones's are moving so fast. The acceleration of carbon fiber as the new aluminum has imo forced those who would not consider it to put it front and center. By forefronting the advancements of technology there is no other choice, your reputation and future depend on keeping up with dem' Jones' Very few have stayed out of aluminum: Serotta, Seven, IF, but what to say? This "materlals revolution" (you heard it here...) will slowly overcome all but the very few who have declared their stand immutable (say, the lugged steel builders). Serotta had nothing nice to say about carbon and pulled out of AL a few years back but they _will_ be back. Heck, DeRosa said in an interview only a few years back that those glued bikes made of carbon (can you say "Colnago"?) were not real bicycles. Now look at'em! It's only a matter of time.

I am satisfied from a dozen experiences (prolonged attempts, hundreds of miles) that I want nothing more to do with either aluminum or pure carbon fiber. I'm happy to keep the Fina and the HampstenParleeZ1 but the ride is pure and simple inferior to steel or titanium. When _frames_ get a certain price I demur as well, so the ti/carbon combination leaves me without any lust because, well, they don't ride _that_ much better than steel if at all, and I happen to think NOT at all. We all like what we like.

As other technologies become necessary to Keep Up with the Jones, I wonder how the commitment to lugged steel will evolve. Imo Serotta is already tepid about building the CSi: to wit, the price is comparable to that of boutique, one-man shops who represent the very best of lugged bicycle craft. Why not go elsewhere? Well, you want a Serotta so still Serotta sells some. But the fork and frame price and the cost in comparison to their other offerings is a deliberate disincentive. If you want a Serotta, think about our other offerings than the CSi, seem to be the message loud and clear. We will keep some foot in it because it's because who we have been but it is not who we are becoming. That's the message I have seen in the past few years and it's sorta' sad to me, not for nostalgia's sake but because steel is the best ride and lugged steel is the most beautiful of all steel rides. We all like what we like.

dbrk

[Smiley]

I want nothing more to do with either aluminum or pure carbon fiber. I'm happy to keep the Fina and the HampstenParleeZ1 but the ride is pure and simple inferior to steel or titanium. When _frames_ get a certain price I demur as well, so the ti/carbon combination leaves me without any lust because, well, they don't ride _that_ much better than steel if at all, and I happen to think NOT at all. We all like what we like.

So good Dr dbrk whats your review of the Hors Categorie that you picked up from DT . I am glad you have come to your senses with regards to Aluminum and Carbon.

I for one won't bet that Serotta will have an all Carbon bike anytime soon. The Ottrott is selling very well and its doing welll not because its a FAD but because it rides so well. For Ben to build a carbon bike it would have to ride MUCH better than the current offerings that are on the market ( a crowded field at this point ). So you may see a Carbon Head tube added to the Ottrott but I don't think he'll mess with the rear drive train any from where they are now. Now my bet and its a safe one that the Ottrott will continue to be on a diet and lose more weight every year until its in the same league as Aluminum or carbon bikes BUT never as light .

[DWF]

the jerk knows it's sacreligous but what serotta should buy is a heat treatment facility so they can use the modern metals and start building race bikes again....
How does "heat treatment facility" = building race bikes?

[Dr. Doofus]

Ben may not like carbon, but carbon sells. The holdup for small manufacturers has been lugsets, something very difficult and costly to manufacture, especially for custom applications. Now that the kits are available, there *may not* be any significant impediment to Ben calling up Reynolds in a year or two and ordering a ton of lugs, CC tubes, and S-stays (yes, you can do that in carbon). It would be a hell of a lot cheaper than investing in a heat-treatment facility.

A full carbon serotta or seven would probably run you 3 grand+ -- and they would sell. The doc would be tempted, if he was to entertain thoughts of racing...but like senor jerk, he would be even more tempted by the idea of racing a Colorado Concept Scandium or U2 frame....

As it is, I and I worship steel -- hence our Terraplane obsession (someone come steal my Merkcx or Moser so I can get that Kirk...the wife won't allow another, and I'm not selling off one...damn damn damn damn)

[Dr. Doofus]

You need a heat treatment facility (a rather large and costly building) to use modern Aluminums. To the best of this Doc's knowledge, the one heat treatment facilities in North America belongs to Marinoni in Canada -- the Doc suspects that Cannondale only paints their bikes in the U.S., that the welding and heat treatment is all done in Taiwan. Then again, he and I don't care because Cannondales are tacky, overpriced ****e (sorry Shino).


Seven and Serotta could make killer AL bikes with U2, Starship, or Scandium, but without an in-house heat treament facility, it would be prohibitively expensive to farm them out for heat treatment, get them back, paint them, ship them to your LBS....


Don't let anybody tell you that U.S. boutique builders don't use AL because it rides poorly, its disposable, or because "Ti and Steel are better." Its because they can't afford heat treatment of the tubes after welding.

[vaxn8r]

You know what I don't like is the inferrence that AL and CF is all about racing bikes for the Pro's and anyone else who rides them is only about mimicking them. And because Ben put down CF a few years ago that justifies people in some way to castigate what frame choice others choose to ride or should feel "cool" or accepted about riding.

I'm really happy that there are choices. I have bikes made of everything and I love that and appreciate the ride each gives. I will also say that, to me, IMO, CF is the absolute best material to make a bike out of. Hands down. It doesn't have to be for DBRK or anyone else here. But to me it is all about performance, feel, handling and a million other personal senses abut bikes and NOTHING at all about what LA rides.

Can you please agree to give me that and allow an opinion without adding a qualification. I don't give a rats butt about what the Pro's ride. Truth be told, I hardly follow racing and I never go to Pro races. I ride what I like to ride. Sorry for the rant.

[Dekonick]

My bet is in the future you will still be able to buy nice steel and Ti frames.

As far as CF being the ultimate; I say the military probably has some better materials that will eventually make it to the consumer market. I will still be riding steel and Ti. (only 'cuz da wife wont let me buy any more and I am happy with my stable. No reason to get 'new' if it means getting rid of 'old'. I like my old frames. (except the &%#% Trek Y-22 - what I wouldnt give to trade it for a nice hardtail...)

I would buy a nice bike that could be taken apart and traveled with... hey say - why doesnt Ben & co still offer travel lugs?

:D

Just ordered D2 shoes! once they arive I am gonna pester smiley to help me 'perfect' my ride...

[bostondrunk]

I have a ti, an al, and a carbon bike. All fit very similar. For racing, the carbon (a tetra) is the best. I can't flex any of my frames. The carbon happens to mute the road nicely and it is lighter than the others, and it won't dent easily like the superlight al frames.
And Doc, I recently got a brand new 'Dale Caad7 frame/fork for under $600, pretty good prices if you hunt around. I don't think an Ottrott would have ridden $4500 better than the 'Dale, but thats just my humble (and poor) opinion... :bike: :beer: :banana:

[Jeff N.]

There may be an all carbon bike frame in Serotta's future, but certainly not mine. Jeff N.

[DWF]

You need a heat treatment facility (a rather large and costly building) to use modern Aluminums. To the best of this Doc's knowledge, the one heat treatment facilities in North America belongs to Marinoni in Canada -- the Doc suspects that Cannondale only paints their bikes in the U.S., that the welding and heat treatment is all done in Taiwan. Then again, he and I don't care because Cannondales are tacky, overpriced ****e (sorry Shino).

Seven and Serotta could make killer AL bikes with U2, Starship, or Scandium, but without an in-house heat treament facility, it would be prohibitively expensive to farm them out for heat treatment, get them back, paint them, ship them to your LBS....

Don't let anybody tell you that U.S. boutique builders don't use AL because it rides poorly, its disposable, or because "Ti and Steel are better." Its because they can't afford heat treatment of the tubes after welding.

Sorry Doctor, you two are living in a fantasy world. Heat treating aluminum frames (those that require heat treating, i.e., 6061 and its marketing "name it something mysterious" variants as opposed to those that require artificial aging, i.e., 7005, etc.) is not a big deal and a company Serotta's size is certainly capable of having their own facility which would easily fit into 200s.f. Even small custom builders do it using either homemade or outside heat treatment facilities.

6061 & its variants pose a bigger hurdle than the 7-series alloys since the solution heat treat temps required (~1,000F) are 2-3 times higher than those required for artificial aging (which you could perform in your own home oven; pizza ovens are popular for this with small builders) and the fact that you need to quench the frame immediately after heat treatment. Let me digress here for a minute, people get confused by the term "solution heat treatment" when it's basically baking a frame to the temperature required to get elements with the alloy to go into "solution" so they can precipitate out during the "aging" process. This stabilizes and strengthens the material.

If you build in batches, you'll find that even complicated heat treatment processes are not that expensive it you use an outside facility to perform the solution heat treatment and then you straighten and arfticially age them using your own equipment. I have three heat treatment facilities within an hour of me that offer free pickup and delivery....

Small builders typically elect not to work in aluminum for a number of reasons, many for the reasons you feel are false and they don't, many for reasons of familiarity, and many for the fact that aluminum frames are ubiquitous and being stamped out for $1.98 in huge factories....well, if you prefer your cookies from Keebler, more power to you. Serotta toyed with aluminum for a while, but that's not where their market lies; they would be foolish to chase the tail of the marketing machinery of others.

As far as Jerk's comments about needing aluminum to build race bikes, I hope nobody tells eRichie that...I always thought "race bike" = fit, balance, & geometry. You don't need aluminum to build race bikes for the international circuit, you need money. To make money you build thousands of them to sell at a high margin so you can afford to dole out the huge sums of cash required to have a big, successful, team ride them = instant race bike.

[dave thompson]

DWF: Nice to see you back.

[Dr. Doofus]

DWF --

Thanks for the clarification. That was the line a rep from a boutique builder gave me regarding why that (new england) house didn't work in AL, so I took his word for it. Your expertise in metallurgy is certainly appreciated.

The jerk does have a point though...yes, fit balance, and geomtery are vital, but I doubt you'd get a cat on the international circut to ride a frame that was 1-2 pounds heavier than an AL alternative. If Jan really wanted to do the Tour on a steel frame, he'd have one.