BigMac
07-02-2004, 09:22 AM
Please keep it clean but a little passion for your favorite is always welcome. Favorite darkhorse or feel good hopeful is also welcome.
I can say Jan looks extraordinarily focussed and fit, his team is better organized than in past but in my opinion this years course is ill-suited to his strengths. I suspect we'll see many more attacks in mountains than in recent years coming from all teams in that there are at least 6 riders with a legitimate chance at a GC title. This will further hinder Jan's pursuits for a title. In the end I do think he will finish 2nd (AGAIN!) after a very strong final ITT -- ok, so he's never finished outside top 2 so that's probably a pretty safe bet.
Mayo is a real wildcard to me. He's too young and inexperienced to win against such an experienced field, his team is the weakest among the contenders and he may have peaked too early. I don't see him winning but a podium finish is as likely as a dnf. Either way, he's bound to make the race interesting attacking in the Pyrennes.
Hamilton too is a wildcard. His team is relatively deep, he appears strong, I just don't think he's strong enough in any one discipline to distance himself from the pack.
I like Heras, the person. Unfortunately his TT skills and Team strength are too little for serious contention but he could have HUGE influence on outcome with his many attacks in mountains attempting to overcome large time deficits. I expect he will not lose much time on L'Alpe Duez TT which will further motivate his attacks.
Lance is obviously the man to beat. His attempt at 6 strainght very much mirror Indurain's, only Lance rides with MUCH better team support. He will never be left alone and isolated on steep climbs. He TT's as good as Jan, better than anyone else and he attacks and counters attacks better than Jan in mountains. If he and his team stay healthy, he wins by >2:00.
My darkhorse is Carlos Sastre. Rides on a very talented team without a single defined leader but Riis will turn to Carlos in the mountains for attacks and breakaways, at least one of which will be successful. He's very young and his TT needs to improve but I'm picking him an easy top 5, in fact i like him for 3rd overall.
The feel good has to be Leipheimer. After a stage 1 crash last year, his form looks great. Barring another crash, anoth 8th place or higher finish would be a great acheivement for a really nice young man.
FWIW: The weather here in Liege is a little breezy but mostly damp and drizzly, temps in low 60'sF. The prediction tomorrow calls for partly cloudy skies in AM turning to showers in afternoon, right on time for the Prologue. The course does have a few tight turns, one with traffic paint which could be very slippery. I do hope riders do not get foolish if the roads are indeed wet. You can't win the race at the Prologue....you sure can lose it however. Be well and enjoy what should be the best Tour in several years.
Ride on! :banana: :banana: :banana:
I can say Jan looks extraordinarily focussed and fit, his team is better organized than in past but in my opinion this years course is ill-suited to his strengths. I suspect we'll see many more attacks in mountains than in recent years coming from all teams in that there are at least 6 riders with a legitimate chance at a GC title. This will further hinder Jan's pursuits for a title. In the end I do think he will finish 2nd (AGAIN!) after a very strong final ITT -- ok, so he's never finished outside top 2 so that's probably a pretty safe bet.
Mayo is a real wildcard to me. He's too young and inexperienced to win against such an experienced field, his team is the weakest among the contenders and he may have peaked too early. I don't see him winning but a podium finish is as likely as a dnf. Either way, he's bound to make the race interesting attacking in the Pyrennes.
Hamilton too is a wildcard. His team is relatively deep, he appears strong, I just don't think he's strong enough in any one discipline to distance himself from the pack.
I like Heras, the person. Unfortunately his TT skills and Team strength are too little for serious contention but he could have HUGE influence on outcome with his many attacks in mountains attempting to overcome large time deficits. I expect he will not lose much time on L'Alpe Duez TT which will further motivate his attacks.
Lance is obviously the man to beat. His attempt at 6 strainght very much mirror Indurain's, only Lance rides with MUCH better team support. He will never be left alone and isolated on steep climbs. He TT's as good as Jan, better than anyone else and he attacks and counters attacks better than Jan in mountains. If he and his team stay healthy, he wins by >2:00.
My darkhorse is Carlos Sastre. Rides on a very talented team without a single defined leader but Riis will turn to Carlos in the mountains for attacks and breakaways, at least one of which will be successful. He's very young and his TT needs to improve but I'm picking him an easy top 5, in fact i like him for 3rd overall.
The feel good has to be Leipheimer. After a stage 1 crash last year, his form looks great. Barring another crash, anoth 8th place or higher finish would be a great acheivement for a really nice young man.
FWIW: The weather here in Liege is a little breezy but mostly damp and drizzly, temps in low 60'sF. The prediction tomorrow calls for partly cloudy skies in AM turning to showers in afternoon, right on time for the Prologue. The course does have a few tight turns, one with traffic paint which could be very slippery. I do hope riders do not get foolish if the roads are indeed wet. You can't win the race at the Prologue....you sure can lose it however. Be well and enjoy what should be the best Tour in several years.
Ride on! :banana: :banana: :banana: