Who Will Win the Tour?

[sspielman]

Time for some wild speculation...and that is what we do best here, right?
*Rasmussen sits in a good spot with his 2-4 minutes ver his closest rivals. He is the best climber in the Tour, and will not lose THAT much in the coming tests. If he dos, he also has the Pyrenees to regain some....
*Don't discount a Spanish inquisition. Rasmussen has been isolated by his team on a couple of climbs. Mayo, Valverde, Contador, Sastre, and others may find it in their common interest to hit enmasse in the Pyrenees. The Basque fans will be going nuts for Mayo there.
*Stick a fork in Levi...he is done. Discovery is not the dominate team that they once were, and it is clear that Contador has the fire in the belly. Their best bet is with him in the Pyrenees. To win the race, Levi will have to beat better time trialists in the tests (Moreau, Evans, and Kloden) AND better climbers in the Pyrenees....
* It is a strange Tour in that a couple of non-stage race teams are in great position-Rabobank and Lotto

[Len J]

Sastre & Levi have done the least amount of work in the first week.
Kloden is the best ITTer left.
It remains to be sean if Contedor can do it over 3 weeks.
Mayo will have one bad day in the mountains.
Valverde, Rasmussen, Evans, Mayo & Moreau have burned a lot of matches in the Alps
Ouside of Rasmussen, who has demonstrated his inability to TT, there are 8 guys within 1:20 of each other.

My bet is Sastre Kloden & Levi for the Podium.

Len

[Kevan]

but that's where the decision will be made. The TT's will shake out the chaff.

I'm not discounting Levi, he might be saving up. Biding his time...biding his time...

[mdeeds71]

I think that disco may not be the strongest but tacticaly they have a good chance at the podium w/ Levi or Contador. The pyranees can and more than likely neutralize any TT changes. Kirchen (w/ help of Tmobile team) may have a chance as well. I think that this tour will go down to Paris and finally be settled on the final stage. Wide open still. 5-8min leads are negligable w/ both tt still and the Pyrannees up.

Killer though on the Gal yesterday...could not believe the SPRINT Contador had going up...My motivtion would have went from pure fear from him to anger that he can actully get that kind of kick. Awesome for the Barlo rider...he was even smiling on the final climb. Wounder who will pick him up CSC or Tmobile...E/E maybe.

[Delpo]

My bet for podium is as follows.

Win - Kloden
Second - Valverde
Third - Levi

Delpo

[dauwhe]

Dave Z. will gain two hours in a long solo breakaway... He's been resting up, so he'll be ready!

;)

[darylb]

I havent seen anything that suggests that Levi is done. To me, he is simply riding the race he is supposed to ride. That whole fire in the belly thing is nonsense. It is about conserving as much as possible and attacking at the right time.

That said, I dont know that he can have 2 good time trials and put some time on the rest in the remaining mountains. I would love to see him win and have a feeling he will surprise some people.

Im not a fan but I thing Kloden is the most dangerous of the bunch. If he doesnt screw it up, he should win. He has a history of screwing it up though.

Valverde has unbelievable talent and probably should win but somehow I see him not finishing it off.

But what do I know?

[gt6267a]

I agree that Levi has burned the least matches. He is very calculating and patient. That said, it seems like he could very well be patient and calculate himself right off the podium. At some point he needs to show a card, hit the gas, and take a chance. I am hoping we actually see him attack this weekend.

[bostondrunk]

I think I'd have to vote for Kloden. I think Ras will lose huge in the TT's, and I don't think Levi has a chance. Not sure why, but I think of him the same way I think of Hincapie when it comes to Paris Roubaix - they seem to have the fitness, but can never seem to pull it off.
Did Levi ever explain what happend to him in last years TDF TT where he lost a ton of time??

[Avispa]

I think this joint will end up like this:

1 - Valverde
2 - Evans
3 - Rasmussen
4 - Kloden

Or some sort of mixture of the above riders, but NOT Rasmussen on top!

[Fixed]

I think I'd have to vote for Kloden. I think Ras will lose huge in the TT's, and I don't think Levi has a chance. Not sure why, but I think of him the same way I think of Hincapie when it comes to Paris Roubaix - they seem to have the fitness, but can never seem to pull it off.
Did Levi ever explain what happend to him in last years TDF TT where he lost a ton of time??

+1

[sevencyclist]

Valverde
Rasmussen
Mayo

[Lifelover]

Levi Will win!

[george]

My prediction/guess will be...

Levi
Valverde
Contador!

[sellsworth]

Did Levi ever explain what happend to him in last years TDF TT where he lost a ton of time??

I talked with Levi's parents at this year's ToC and his dad described how Levi was really sick that day. He wasn't very good in this year's prologue so I don't expect much from him in the two long TTs this year. Levi seems to be your classic one-week race type.

[Elefantino]

I picked Evans before so I'm not going to change, even though Valverde will probably win.

If Kloden wins with a busted a** then it's an awesome story.

Rasmussen needs a 10-minute lead entering the final time trial.

Sastre hasn't done squat at all, meaning he hasn't used up any energy and could be the dark horse. But not as dark as Mayo. Great to see the little quitter back and at 'em.

I still want Moreau to win so we can end 22 years of whining.

Leipheimer isn't good enough. He really just isn't.

[cs124]

1. Klodi - kills them in the TT (Vino takes some top secret soviet painkillers and works as an Uber-domestique in the Pyrenees)... or he cracks spectacularly under the pressure of leadership.
2. Valverde - slimy little pr!ck wheel sucks and dopes his way through the moutains and drafts Spanish TV motorbikes in the TTs.
3. Evans - this is as good as he gets, I'm afraid.

[Avispa]

If Kloden wins with a busted a** then it's an awesome story

If Kloden wins with a busted arse, his arse WILL get busted for doping, promise! :D :D

A.

[tv_vt]

what a great Tour. I like how they've stacked it up in the last week - the real race is 8 days long- Saturday to Saturday. Two TTs the last 2 Saturdays over 50 Km. Those will do some damage. And two mtn top finishes in the Pyrenees. It is a total wide open race. Levi, Evans, Kloden, Valverde, Sastre, maybe Moreau, Rasmussen - podium chances, plus Vino. You never know.

Levi is definitely in it. As is Contador. What a find he was for Disco.

It's gonna be down to the wire.

[97CSI]

Poor Moreau......Ag2R simply doesn't have anyone to help him. They need a Hincapie or Ekimov. But, is too late, with Moreau being 36.

Based on those in the top-10, Levi looks like he should definitely be on the podium in Paris. If he does his usual TT ride(s) and holds his own in rest of the mountain stages, you've got to like his chances. At least I do.

Definitely the most interesting TdF in years.

[JMerring]

definitely the most wide open tour in years, but don't know if i'd necessarily call it the most interesting. so far, no real attacks by the contenders. sort of makes you miss the doping days of armstrong's "stare," battles with ullrich, kloden/basso/pantani in the mountains, etc.

[72gmc]

Ag2R must be pretty Moreause right now.

[97CSI]

Ag2R must be pretty Moreause right now.+1

definitely the most wide open tour in years, but don't know if i'd necessarily call it the most interesting. so far, no real attacks by the contenders. sort of makes you miss the doping days of armstrong's "stare," battles with ullrich, kloden/basso/pantani in the mountains, etc.At least the stares this year are not through dilated pupils.

[darylb]

definitely the most wide open tour in years, but don't know if i'd necessarily call it the most interesting. so far, no real attacks by the contenders. sort of makes you miss the doping days of armstrong's "stare," battles with ullrich, kloden/basso/pantani in the mountains, etc.



It certainly seems to illustrate Armstrong's affect on the tour. He created a very specific plan for winning the tour and executed it. And it worked. He, and his team entered each stage knowing exactly what they were going to accomplish and unless something strange happened, they did exactly that.

Now it seems that more teams have a plan but arent necessarily as committed to it or confident that it will work and rely a lot on "we'll see what happens."

I am going to take a stance and join those who say Levi will win. Secretly, I think it is Kloden's race to lose but I am pulling for Levi.

[Fixed]

bro imho
kloden 1
evans 2
valverde3
levi 4

[3chordwonder]

+1 for Cadel Evans as the quiet achiever who might find himself on the podium to everybody's surprise after being the most consistent allrounder man and/or the only top contender not to test positive (during or after the Tour)

[sspielman]

I'm going to go out on a limb here.....and predict that Euskaltel's Astarloza will finish AHEAD of Leipheimer on GC.....It is time for Levi to really pull out something special in this race....Also, Kloden is very dangerous. He is a better time trialist than anybody above him on GC (including Evans) and is climbing well....(he also benefitted 1 GC spot yesterday thanks to Moreau)
1 Valverde
2 Kloden
3 Mayo
4 Contador
5 Sastre

[Len J]

I'm going to go out on a limb here.....and predict that Euskaltel's Astarloza will finish AHEAD of Leipheimer on GC.....It is time for Levi to really pull out something special in this race....Also, Kloden is very dangerous. He is a better time trialist than anybody above him on GC (including Evans) and is climbing well....(he also benefitted 1 GC spot yesterday thanks to Moreau)
1 Valverde
2 Kloden
3 Mayo
4 Contador
5 Sastre

as I've thought about this, to me the winner may be one of the Spanish riders originally implicted in Puerto but whose name has been removed from the records. It will e interesting to see which riders "Get stronger" in the third week vs those that weaken. May be a real indicator of "enhancement".

Len

[bostondrunk]

OK, so now I'm sticking with my prediction regarding Levi not doing squat.. :)
I bet there is some interesting discussion going on in Johan's room tonight....who to protect...etc.
I'm still betting on Kloden, but not sure he'll have the snap required in the mountains. Cadel Evans looks good too, as does chicken boy now that he can TT!
Sunday should be a good race!

[Larry]

Having won the time trial, Vino may be primed and ready to launch a full scale attack tomorrow.
Now or never.

[jcmuellner]

Looking at stats, I wonder how much experience counts in how these two riders deal with a TdF stage race?

Contador:

Grand Tour Participation: 1
Tour de France: 1 (2005: 31st)
World Championship (Elite Level) Participation: 0

1st Place Stage 8 Tour de Suisse
1st Place Stage 3 Tour de Romandie
2nd Place Overall Tour de Romandie
2nd Place Stage 2 Vuelta a Pais-Vasco
3rd Place Stage 3 Vuelta a Pais-Vasco
4th Place Overall Klasika Primavera
9th Place Overall GP Indurain

Levi:

Grand Tour Participation: 7
Tour de France: 5 (2006: 13th, 2005: 6th, 2004: 9th, 2003: DNF, 2002: 8th)
Vuelta a España: 2 (2003: 58th, 2001: 3rd)
World Championship (Elite Level) Participation: 3
Road Race (2003: 92nd, 2001: 28th, 1999: DNF)
Time Trial (2003: 13th, 2001: 4th, 1999: 36th)

1st Place Overall Dauphiné Libéré
1st Place Prologue Tour of California
1st Place Stage 5 Tour of Germany
1st Place King of the Mountains Tour of California
2nd Place Overall US Road Race Championships
2nd Place Overall Tour of Germany
2nd Place Stage 11 Tour de France
2nd Place Stage 6 Tour of Germany
3rd Place Stage 3 Dauphiné Libéré
3rd Place Stage 4 Dauphiné Libéré
4th Place Stage 2 Tour of California
4th Place Stage 6 Dauphiné Libéré
5th Place Stage 7 Tour of Germany
6th Place Overall Tour of California
8th Place Stage 5 Dauphiné Libéré
9th Place Stage 3 Tour of California
9th Place Stage 16 Tour de France
10th Place Stage 15 Tour de France
13th Place Overall Tour de France

[Fixed]

yeah bro look up vino's it will take 2 pages imho
these guys are all winners ..imho
cheers

[97CSI]

OK.....no one is going to catch MR. Podium is:
MR
CE
LL

Contador blows up in the final TT.

[dauwhe]

Contador will beat Rasmussen by 3:08 in the final TT, and thus Levi will have lost the Tour for Discovery. :D

[Avispa]

OK.....no one is going to catch MR. Podium is:
MR
CE
LL

Contador blows up in the final TT.

Well... after today it surely looks like that's they way it is going to be. But I am not making any more predictions about LL or AC.

This Tour has reminded me of the good old Giros past.

Nice, unpredictable and with some drama (the busts, etc.)

A.

[Larry]

Contador will have the ride of his life in the TT.
Greg Lemond/Fignot drama!!
Contador will have motivation to do something special.
Rasmussen will need another good showing to survive
the up and coming Young Gun!!

Contador by 11 seconds !!!!!

[Sandy]

Rasmussen by 8.951 seconds. :)



Behind by 11.5 days,


Sandy

[gary135r]

The question now is who will be left. :no:

[97CSI]

Levi made the podium. Now the question is, can he TT his way past CE (difficult) and Contador (probably). Wouldn't that be some chit. go Levi!!

[sspielman]

I'm done following this one. What a pathetic mess.....when the right organized crime faction gets control of the sport and things calm down, I'll follow things again. Until then it is just too predictable.......

[DarrenCT]

imho they should just cancel the entire event

[Larry]

Thursday a.m.

Well.....now that it all has hit the fan...................

CADEL EVANS

is in the driver's seat!!