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View Full Version : 3-6 PM is the most dangerous time to ride..


C5 Snowboarder
04-30-2007, 01:01 PM
Check out this link for details of deadliest time to ride.

http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/finalreport.cfm?title=People&stateid=0&year=2005&title2=Pedalcyclists

dgauthier
04-30-2007, 02:28 PM
Thanks for the link, but it's not possible to determine the safest times to ride using only the total number of fatalities. The number of fatalities must be normalized against *the total number of riders on the road* at any specific time.

If, for example, 50 riders are killed from 6:00AM to 9:00AM, but only 100 riders are on the road during that time, then the fatality rate is 50%. If 200 riders are being killed between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM, but 2000 riders are on the road at that time, then the fatality rate is 10%. It would be 5 times safer to ride from 3-6PM than at 6-9AM, despite the 4 times increase in total fatalities.

Unfortunately, we'll likely never know how many cyclists are on the road at any given time, so the numbers tabulated by the NHTSA can't provide much guidance.

deechee
04-30-2007, 03:14 PM
well, despite the numbers game, I think its pretty common sense that 3-6/rush hour is more dangerous than the morning commute as drivers and riders are more tired or in more of a hurry to get home. Not to mention decreasing light etc.

I found the stats regarding age more interesting. I would've thought there would be more fatalities for 21-34 but it seems significantly higher between 35-55. I guess my odds are getting worse as I age...

I'm also very amused at how there was only ONE death as a result of "Erratic, reckless, careless, or negligent operation" I thought there were a lot more Darwin nominations out there...

Erik.Lazdins
04-30-2007, 03:33 PM
Ive seen the data and thought that even though it hasn't or cannot be normalized meaningfully I thought about it and have my observations...

3-6 PM - Rednecks, careless drivers, drunks, rush hour, and the sun's angle create more situations that may endanger a cyclist*. Roads I ride at 4-6AM I wouldn't dare ride at 3-6 PM.

*A cyclist can be a pro, enthusiast, student, commuter, normally non-riding person on their occasional bike ride, or our children riding.

6-9 PM - more drunks? Less light, street racers, cyclists riding that are underlit or not lit at all.

4-6 AM - the lightest traffic I've seen, I would think most rednecks and drunks are off the road at this time. Most of the few cars I see at this time are "regulars" meaning I see then at the same place at the same time as they do me.

These are my opionions and I realize all it takes is one motorist to ruin a good ride and prevent others - so I need to always be vigilant and safe.

C5 Snowboarder
04-30-2007, 04:25 PM
Thanks for the link, but it's not possible to determine the safest times to ride using only the total number of fatalities. The number of fatalities must be normalized against *the total number of riders on the road* at any specific time.

If, for example, 50 riders are killed from 6:00AM to 9:00AM, but only 100 riders are on the road during that time, then the fatality rate is 50%. If 200 riders are being killed between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM, but 2000 riders are on the road at that time, then the fatality rate is 10%. It would be 5 times safer to ride from 3-6PM than at 6-9AM, despite the 4 times increase in total fatalities.

Unfortunately, we'll likely never know how many cyclists are on the road at any given time, so the numbers tabulated by the NHTSA can't provide much guidance.

While that is simple math and I agree, I believe if you were to do a full blown stat study, you could cancel out the number of riders in the end becasue you most likely have the number of cars increase at the same rate as the number of cyclists, you'd find in the end the 3-6 pm is still the most dangerous for several reasons. One of these being it is the time of day when the auto population of the roads is greatest. Second, at this time some of the drivers have the most road rage, AKA failure to yield right of way. :beer: