View Full Version : OT: How is the housing/rental market in your area?
XXtwindad
08-16-2020, 11:22 AM
The housing market in the Bay Area seems to be holding steady. The rental market? Not so much. The Pandemic has decimated the City. San Francisco residents are leaving in droves. Both my Partner and my partner's mother own rental property. My partner's mother has a building in a desirable location that has almost all the units vacant, even after lowering the asking rent 15%.
I'm a little conflicted as a renter myself. I think it's a good thing to see rents stabilize somewhat after taking off into the stratosphere. It will be very interesting to see how long is lasts that way. A lot depends on what remains in the City after the Pandemic is over.
cinema
08-16-2020, 11:29 AM
rents have not stabilized here in pasadena or LA, slum lords are doing everything they can to keep them occupied. ie my building has taken on more section 8 during the past 6 months. 6-8 person family in 1-2 br apt. several children sleeping in living room of $2400 2br. this has become normal here. imo SF is probably unique as it is very bad from many perspectives. I work there and visit all the time over the last ten years. the decline is staggering. still makes sense that it is a sellers market because of rock bottom interest rates. fed keeps rates low and pumps cash which always inflates prices of equities especially in this state, prop 13 locked in property tax and it has become unassailable. prop 47 has decimated both of our cities but rent has only gone up since. Houses go on the market here and get 20 offers on the day cash over asking. we will never be able to own. we have purchased a home out of state and plan to move when we can properly transfer our careers.
hard equity seems to be booming everywhere due to fed policy of debasing currency as deeply as possible. good for the haves, bad for the nots, worse for the children we are bringing into this world.
CMiller
08-16-2020, 11:30 AM
I’m a grad student at cal, no reason to pay Berkeley prices any more on my limited budget, even with apartments offering free months around town. Santa Cruz is incredible, two free months at nice spots near the water for one year leases, I considered moving there while we are this situation. Dublin/Pleasanton same deal.
Hilltopperny
08-16-2020, 11:59 AM
I have sold two of my five properties over the past few weeks. Rent wise I have one tenant who has paid rent since before the pandemic and another who has been steadily paying. One is in a small village and the other in the Adirondacks. Housing market is great for sellers up here right now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
jtakeda
08-16-2020, 12:05 PM
The housing market in the Bay Area seems to be holding steady. The rental market? Not so much. The Pandemic has decimated the City. San Francisco residents are leaving in droves. Both my Partner and my partner's mother own rental property. My partner's mother has a building in a desirable location that has almost all the units vacant, even after lowering the asking rent 15%.
I'm a little conflicted as a renter myself. I think it's a good thing to see rents stabilize somewhat after taking off into the stratosphere. It will be very interesting to see how long is lasts that way. A lot depends on what remains in the City after the Pandemic is over.
I think its important to also realize that rents in Oakland are actually rising albeit very modestly.
People are leaving the city but they are also just moving to "cheaper" parts of the bay area.
I think the question of how long this decrease/holding pattern lasts is entirely predicated on the eviction protections due to COVID-19. Once the eviction moratoriums end I expect we will get our real answer about how stable the rental market in the bay area is.
likebikes
08-16-2020, 12:08 PM
where i live in colorado, the local real estate association reported that june hit an all time sales record. some scuttlebutt that i hear from folks involved in the real estate biz is that there are folks from all around the country (world?) watching the prices and if a house of a certain criteria is at x price or drops in price, they've got (all) cash waiting to swoop in.
a quick scan elsewhere around colorado, looks like everywhere is booming/shatttering records.
people are flush with cash here in colorado, despite coronavirus many businesses are reporting this summer to be their best ever.
572cv
08-16-2020, 12:11 PM
A lot of Vermont is close enough to the metropolitan areas of NY and NE to be of interest as a safe haven in these times. There are bidding wars for residences on the market. In addition, VT has done a solid, consistent job of managing the COVID-19 crisis, and many areas- though far from most- have decent broadband, and people can work remotely. The rental market in Chittenden County is similarly tight. OTOH, the commercial market has tanked like everywhere else. Just a few random observations...
Tickdoc
08-16-2020, 12:48 PM
Realtors are knocking it out of the park here. Prices are rising and supply is low. Not sure about landlords.
19wisconsin64
08-16-2020, 12:52 PM
Interesting topic! We were living in New York City, but then my wife got an Intelligence report done by scientists and doctors...we rented a place in Connecticut and we moved in on March 1st, before the first death in NYC due to the virus. Got a good deal on the rental-not cheap, but still 20% lower than what you can rent the same place for now (if you can find a rental!). The landlord did not agree with my thoughts at the time that many New Yorkers were going to move out of the city and that we were overreacting.
Outside of the city now is a bidding war, fueled by low-interest rates, fear, and more fear. Things are changing so quickly around cities, it's amazing. People want safety, space, and are now willing to move to get it.
I work in residential real estate, fixing up old buildings and renting them out to tenants for the past 25 years. Have never seen anything like this.
I've been trying to buy for a few months and it is impossible - nice single family homes are gone in 1 week with multiple offers. Since the Fed moved, all nice places are selling for +50K over list. All cutting rates did is inflate housing to make up the difference. :(
People with money want more space to work from home and out of apartments in city cores. Huge split between "renters" and "people with money" - Bay area has always had a dearth of single family homes and it is even worse.
Good time to be an apartment renter though, I expect the split to get even bigger!
NHAero
08-16-2020, 01:23 PM
I don't know how valid this article (https://fortune.com/2020/08/09/second-home-prices-soar-in-aspen-and-marthas-vineyard-as-the-affluent-flee-megacities/) is. I'm worried that with schools not re-opening the second homers won't leave at the end of the month :-(
XXtwindad
08-16-2020, 01:26 PM
I don't know how valid this article (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&ei=wHA5X9-ONKek_Qb9l57YDQ&q=thermal+mass+effect+on+R+value+oak+ridge&oq=thermal+mass+effect+on+R+value+oak+ridge&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIFCCEQoAEyBQghEKsCMgUIIRCrAjo ECAAQRzoHCCEQChCgAVCbzgFYgOcBYOrpAWgAcAF4AIABuwGIA ekJkgEDMS45mAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpesABAQ&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjf7urFo6DrAhUnUt8KHf2LB9sQ4dUDCAs&uact=5) is.
“Thermal Mass and R-Value” has always been confusing to me. :)
zambenini
08-16-2020, 01:38 PM
I'm very interested in this topic myself as we might be making some moves. Our area is hot. Offers way over asking, $5k earnest money down, things under contract first weekend of showings, etc. Our realtor who is also a close friend tells us there's no inventory. Things seem to go live one at a time. We were a hair's breadth from listing our place as we might be wanting to shake things up. We are convinced low rates will hold, and there seems to be an uptick of people moving here from Up North who don't want to do the big city after living through a global pandemic. We're going to likely list in the spring.
Great time to be a seller, not so much a buyer. We would ourselves be possibly moving back to the Midwest to be near family. Can't decide where the smart money is in real estate - i.e. whether the Millennial/low rate housing boom will continue, or whether we're going to see the Silver Tsunami correct the market and put a lot of new inventory on sale.
Who else here has been considering that question as you decide what to do with your ducats?
Ralph
08-16-2020, 01:38 PM
Here in the Orlando, Fl area, especially in the areas away from Disney and Universal, home prices are rising steadily with a low supply of homes for sale. As are rents. I assume down in the tourist centers....with Disney and Universal barely operating....rents are less now. But people who visit Florida and go to the beach or resorts and think that's Florida.....well that's not the Florida I live in. Nor is it the Florida that folks are still moving to every day. No state income tax and low real estate taxes are a powerful draw for people who have the option to move where they wish. So our area is still growing. I think my 4 bedroom, 3 car garage, pool home is worth about a 1/4 of what it would be worth in parts of California and the NE. So either California and other expensive places have a long way to fall, or our prices have a long way to go up. I expect the answer to be somewhere in the middle depending on where the good jobs are.
NHAero
08-16-2020, 01:54 PM
A lesson in trying to do two things at once! Fixed. Thank you!
“Thermal Mass and R-Value” has always been confusing to me. :)
Mr. Pink
08-16-2020, 01:55 PM
I think it's pretty dangerous to be buying anything right now. The housing market is similar to the stock market, just floating up in the clouds from Fed low interest rates and easy money. The true test is starting right now, with our dear leaders walking away from any sort of new stimulus, and now millions of renters and mortgaged homeowners with no income and looking at eviction/foreclosure very soon. If they extend eviction moratoriums, than millions of landlords are staring at serious trouble. Unless the nation gets back to work tomorrow, theres going to be a lot of pain, and return to normal is not happening. Now we're cruising into a fall/winter with awful prospects for the spread of this thing, combined with the flu, and our entire education industry, especially the lucrative undergrad university system, basically reduced to Zoom classes. So, why buy? I mean, do you feel lucky, do you? Maybe. But, is your job and income that secure?
I, for one, will not lament the death of the million dollar Manhattan studio. Good riddance. But ski town RE is going nuts again. Of course, a lot of those Zoom refugees may regret buying a place by the slopes when the lifts don't spin and the bars never open.
MikeD
08-16-2020, 02:37 PM
I think it's pretty dangerous to be buying anything right now. The housing market is similar to the stock market, just floating up in the clouds from Fed low interest rates and easy money. The true test is starting right now, with our dear leaders walking away from any sort of new stimulus, and now millions of renters and mortgaged homeowners with no income and looking at eviction/foreclosure very soon. If they extend eviction moratoriums, than millions of landlords are staring at serious trouble. Unless the nation gets back to work tomorrow, theres going to be a lot of pain, and return to normal is not happening. Now we're cruising into a fall/winter with awful prospects for the spread of this thing, combined with the flu, and our entire education industry, especially the lucrative undergrad university system, basically reduced to Zoom classes. So, why buy? I mean, do you feel lucky, do you? Maybe. But, is your job and income that secure?
I, for one, will not lament the death of the million dollar Manhattan studio. Good riddance. But ski town RE is going nuts again. Of course, a lot of those Zoom refugees may regret buying a place by the slopes when the lifts don't spin and the bars never open.
I agree with this. It makes sense that the housing market should have crashed with this massive unemployment, but the market is being propped up by all this stimulus money flooding the economy and temporary laws that prevent foreclosures and evictions. I hope loans aren't being given to people without jobs/income, like in the great recession, but a friend that's a salesman at a car dealership says that's what's happening.
texbike
08-16-2020, 02:56 PM
The market in Austin is just insane. When everything looked like it was going to start falling apart earlier this year, my SO was chomping at the bit to pick up a couple of properties, but I wanted to give things six months to see if they would cool a bit. A clean, but very dated house down the street from us just sold for a bit over $300 a sq ft. It was under contract within 24 hours of it hitting the market and had multiple offers. We looked at a house in May when Austin was still officially under lock down. It had been on the market less than 6 hours. When we arrived to do a walk through, there were 4 other parties standing outside in the driveway (all wearing masks) waiting to take a look at the house. The rental market appears to be fairly robust as well.
I don't know how people that are just getting started can afford to live here. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next year.
Texbike
sjbraun
08-16-2020, 03:06 PM
We just sold our home in central Tucson. We received an over asking price offer within 24 hours of listing. I have a friend with rental properties, he had more than 100 calls about a recent vacancy. So, both rental and selling markets are hot.
cinema
08-16-2020, 04:39 PM
i don't buy the bearish sentiment to wait and see. there was a thread here a few months ago everyone said to wait and prices would come down. they never will as long as the fed is debasing currency. you will get steamrolled the longer you wait to buy.
jds108
08-16-2020, 05:10 PM
Here in Bozeman rents and sales prices are both up. Not surprising since this is one of the spots to "escape" to.
I've got multiple properties, all acquired between 2012 and 2014. Valuations haven't quite doubled since then, but a couple more years of gains and that'll be true.
Bozeman has always been a bit of boom and bust compared to other cities that are semi-nearby (Helena, Idaho Falls, Missoula, Billings don't show the same kind of price swings). But the boom & bust is not like SF, LA, NY, etc.
Rentals are hard to come by - my property manager says that demand is the most it's been this summer since 2012.
Hellgate
08-16-2020, 05:30 PM
Austin = Red Hot
San Antonio = Red Hot in northern SA
I sold my house in Austin, near 360 & 2222 in four hours three weeks ago.
The house I bought in San Antonio, (Hollywood Park), sold in 3 hours with multiple offers. I paid $5k over asking. It valued at $15k over what I offered. The sellers did $18k in repairs, roof, etc.
The house listed on MLS at 9:00 PM, I called her and asked her her to look at it ASAP. She called me at 9:15AM the next day and said, "Get down here."
If a house in Central Texas is in very good condition in a nice neighborhood it's gone in a flash.
2.67% with a VA 30 fixed is nice too.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200816/6ad286952c3ffc5fd760b05eb1421e15.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200816/676387d7aa404da7f004d4cedacceca5.jpg
Mr. Pink
08-16-2020, 05:44 PM
I agree with this. It makes sense that the housing market should have crashed with this massive unemployment, but the market is being propped up by all this stimulus money flooding the economy and temporary laws that prevent foreclosures and evictions. I hope loans aren't being given to people without jobs/income, like in the great recession, but a friend that's a salesman at a car dealership says that's what's happening.
The new car market is just bizarre. Why do people need new cars? Nobody is going anywhere. I haven't put jack on my odometer in months. Work from home means no commuting. If people are using their stimulus checks and the 600 UE supplement to do that, which they probably are, most deserve to live in poverty. It's like the citizens of this country have a death wish with their finances.
jtakeda
08-16-2020, 05:49 PM
The new car market is just bizarre. Why do people need new cars? Nobody is going anywhere. I haven't put jack on my odometer in months. Work from home means no commuting. If people are using their stimulus checks and the 600 UE supplement to do that, which they probably are, most deserve to live in poverty. It's like the citizens of this country have a death wish with their finances.
Not everyone works from home dude. Also how people spend their stimulus checks isnt your business and to say that they "deserve poverty" is frankly really gross
Hellgate
08-16-2020, 05:49 PM
The new car market is just bizarre. Why do people need new cars? Nobody is going anywhere. I haven't put jack on my odometer in months. Work from home means no commuting. If people are using their stimulus checks and the 600 UE supplement to do that, which they probably are, most deserve to live in poverty. It's like the citizens of this country have a death wish with their finances.My car has over 6k on it since March. And I've worked from home since March
Back east no one moves, in the west it's 10 miles to the grocery store.
And my son went to see his girlfriend once a week. 220 miles a week right there.
Oh, used car prices are up about 20%.
Your reality is not my reality.
jtakeda
08-16-2020, 05:52 PM
My car has over 6k on it since March. And I've worked from home since March
Back east no one moves, in the west it's 10 miles to the grocery store.
And my son when to see his girlfriend once a week. 220 miles a week right there.
Oh, used car prices are up about 20%.
Exactly. The closest grocery to me is 15 miles away. My girlfriend rotates for work as far away as 140 miles each way.
Ralph
08-16-2020, 05:52 PM
The payments on a $400,000 to $500,000 house loan at 3% is less than the rent on a 2 bedroom apartment around here. Maybe that explains some of it. What happens when rates normalize....whatever rate that is? Most people who borrow have a maximum amount they can pay. Then what? I figure, in our current environment, home prices will continue to go up until people can't afford to buy.
Hellgate
08-16-2020, 05:53 PM
Exactly. The closest grocery to me is 15 miles away. My girlfriend rotates for work as far away as 140 miles each way.I rest my case brother.
mtechnica
08-16-2020, 06:53 PM
Nobody is going anywhere.
I for one do not understand why people on this forum (and elsewhere) are repeating this. Makes me question the credibility of anyone claiming this. Maybe less people are "going anywhere" but in LA, Irvine, Corona, etc... trust me: A TON of people are commuting every day.
MikeD
08-16-2020, 07:11 PM
I for one do not understand why people on this forum (and elsewhere) are repeating this. Makes me question the credibility of anyone claiming this. Maybe less people are "going anywhere" but in LA, Irvine, Corona, etc... trust me: A TON of people are commuting every day.
In the SF Bay Area, there is a lot more traffic on the roads now, but less than pre-pandemic. People are avoiding mass transit like BART, so there probably more traffic just from that. It's not just commuters using the roads. I'm retired, but am driving less myself because of the lockdown that's still in partial effect here.
skitlets
08-16-2020, 07:15 PM
DC home prices hit a record high in July while rent prices are down about 5-7% city wide.
I attribute it to low housing supply and cheap rates. We've had a lot more rentals come online in the past 5 years as well.
Mr. Pink
08-16-2020, 07:37 PM
My car has over 6k on it since March. And I've worked from home since March
Back east no one moves, in the west it's 10 miles to the grocery store.
And my son went to see his girlfriend once a week. 220 miles a week right there.
Oh, used car prices are up about 20%.
Your reality is not my reality.
Well, yeah, I guess that's a sad indictment of how Americans aspire to live, and, therefore, are draining the earth's resources at a rapid rate, still, and do their damndest to melt the glaciers in a few decades. Nowhere else in the world do people spend so much time driving a large, gas guzzling vehicle alone to their jobs. Cube jockeys in massive SUVs and pickup trucks are common. At least in the east we have some semblance of mass transit, especially the NY metro. Funny. China just spent the last decade building thousands of kilometers of high speed train lines, but we celebrate the auto by paying for everyone's down payment for a new guzzler during a crisis. We cant even build a new tunnel under the Hudson that all experts say is desperately needed, because the existing one will fail soon, taking down the whole Acela corridor. Sad.
Let's not even mention that millions are moving to the desert, where it never rains, but everybody wants a pool and lawn. It rains here.
prototoast
08-16-2020, 07:38 PM
Don't underestimate the effect of colleges on rental prices. That's a huge, but reliable pool of renters for many cities. They'll be back some day, but until they are, rents are going to be lower.
CMiller
08-16-2020, 07:41 PM
Paceline demographic doesn’t reflect the general population at all. If you are working from home you are in a privileged position (like I am).
People are obviously still driving to work and many need cars because it’s a scary time to take public transit. It’s also a scary time to buy a used car, do you want to meet up with a stranger with no understanding how clean or safe they are? If I were in the market I’d be interested in a new car from the dealer who was easiest to work with through no contact conversation.
ltwtsculler91
08-16-2020, 07:43 PM
DC home prices hit a record high in July while rent prices are down about 5-7% city wide.
I attribute it to low housing supply and cheap rates. We've had a lot more rentals come online in the past 5 years as well.
This is a massively underrated factor in all of this. It's become harder to return investment on multifamily Condo / Sold apartments in many markets in the last few years so a lot of new construction has gone to rentals in the "hotter" cities like NY, DC, and even have seen it in Nashville, and now there's a greater supply of these versus for sale units.
This is tied closely with and also driven by the other part of my (I say this as someone who's under 30, and thinking of my 25-35 age group) generation in most cases lacking any sort of savings or downpayment in these markets to purchase a home. Many of us have graduated with large student loans and/or plowed large shares of our earnings into high rents to live in the "hot" area of the big city and try to have that lifestyle we all watched on TV shows like Friends or How I Met Your Mother, which burned up a ton of the cash we make even for those of us who are doing well.. I look around and it really frightens me how financially illiterate such a large portion of my "educated" college grad cohort are.
CMiller
08-16-2020, 07:44 PM
I wouldn’t say a low income grocery store worker driving from an affordable area to where they can find work is necessarily an American choice. Are citizens to blame for infrastructure and access?
Hindmost
08-16-2020, 07:46 PM
Remote Work Is Reshaping San Francisco, as Tech Workers Flee and Rents Fall https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall-11597413602
It sounds like the East Bay and elsewhere is taking up the slack. Weird times.
Hellgate
08-16-2020, 07:51 PM
Well, yeah, I guess that's a sad indictment of how Americans aspire to live, and, therefore, are draining the earth's resources at a rapid rate, still, and do their damndest to melt the glaciers in a few decades. Nowhere else in the world do people spend so much time driving a large, gas guzzling vehicle alone to their jobs. Cube jockeys in massive SUVs and pickup trucks are common. At least in the east we have some semblance of mass transit, especially the NY metro. Funny. China just spent the last decade building thousands of kilometers of high speed train lines, but we celebrate the auto by paying for everyone's down payment for a new guzzler during a crisis. We cant even build a new tunnel under the Hudson that all experts say is desperately needed, because the existing one will fail soon, taking down the whole Acela corridor. Sad.
Let's not even mention that millions are moving to the desert, where it never rains, but everybody wants a pool and lawn. It rains here.I'm not being rude, but what's your point?
Also, I drive a Passat that gets 36+ mpg.
Mr. Pink
08-16-2020, 08:34 PM
You would think that Americans, half of whom have zero retirement savings, and the other half have a pathetic sum saved, except for the top 5%, would correct their ways, but, I get it. That new car smell is seductive.
mtechnica
08-16-2020, 08:41 PM
Well, yeah, I guess that's a sad indictment of how Americans aspire to live, and, therefore, are draining the earth's resources at a rapid rate, still, and do their damndest to melt the glaciers in a few decades. Nowhere else in the world do people spend so much time driving a large, gas guzzling vehicle alone to their jobs. Cube jockeys in massive SUVs and pickup trucks are common. At least in the east we have some semblance of mass transit, especially the NY metro. Funny. China just spent the last decade building thousands of kilometers of high speed train lines, but we celebrate the auto by paying for everyone's down payment for a new guzzler during a crisis. We cant even build a new tunnel under the Hudson that all experts say is desperately needed, because the existing one will fail soon, taking down the whole Acela corridor. Sad.
Let's not even mention that millions are moving to the desert, where it never rains, but everybody wants a pool and lawn. It rains here.
Blame the education system and the people that undercut it at every opportunity.
cinema
08-16-2020, 08:47 PM
You would think that Americans, half of whom have zero retirement savings, and the other half have a pathetic sum saved, except for the top 5%, would correct their ways, but, I get it. That new car smell is seductive.
not taking sides here. but you're not wrong. in addition, one problem is the used market for vehicles is skyrocketing here. while lots of people have no problem signing up for an 8 year payment plan on a depreciating asset, a lot of people do. and they're bidding up used vehicles like crazy. I sold our extra car in 30 minutes last week. it had 180k on the odo and a totally blown out steering rack. I could have probably gotten twice what i listed it for. In LA right now i'd almost rather buy a new hyundai for 20k with a 100k mile warranty than someone elses problem for $8k, it's that bad right now. i really can't believe the amount of new paper plates from the dealer i've seen on the street since march, it's incredible.
jtakeda
08-16-2020, 08:59 PM
not taking sides here. but you're not wrong. in addition, one problem is the used market for vehicles is skyrocketing here. while lots of people have no problem signing up for an 8 year payment plan on a depreciating asset, a lot of people do. and they're bidding up used vehicles like crazy. I sold our extra car in 30 minutes last week. it had 180k on the odo and a totally blown out steering rack. I could have probably gotten twice what i listed it for. In LA right now i'd almost rather buy a new hyundai for 20k with a 100k mile warranty than someone elses problem for $8k, it's that bad right now. i really can't believe the amount of new paper plates from the dealer i've seen on the street since march, it's incredible.
How do you know these folks that are buying new cars from the dealer don’t have savings or are spending their Unemployment on a new car?
Just seeing an increase in new cars doesn’t really mean people are spending their money frivolously
cinema
08-16-2020, 09:11 PM
I definitely don't know and I actually assume many here are extremely well off, enough to pay for the vehicles with cash if they wanted. many may just be bored and cash rich and want a new car, it seems like all recreational equipment is in high demand. i am just observing the greater amount of them. but the financing options are extremely attractive right now. like i said, i think there is more reason than ever actually to purchase a new vehicle now, the used market being one of them.
mtechnica
08-16-2020, 09:20 PM
A lot of people still have incomes, and yeah buying used cars looks like a less and less good deal when new cars get better gas mileage, are safer, and can be had for a palatable monthly payment if you don’t get something too crazy. That said I’d be hesitant to buy a new car right now unless I really needed a car. I’m afraid of what can happen between now and next spring.
mtechnica
08-16-2020, 09:21 PM
On a semi related note the used mountain bike market is trash too. People are asking new prices and are willing to go down a whopping $100 for their bike. No warranty buying used or you can get in line for a new one. People have money, I guess?
MikeD
08-16-2020, 09:54 PM
You would think that Americans, half of whom have zero retirement savings, and the other half have a pathetic sum saved, except for the top 5%, would correct their ways, but, I get it. That new car smell is seductive.
Yet the US savings rate is at a record high https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/us-savings-rate-hits-record-33percent-as-coronavirus-causes-americans-to-stockpile-cash-curb-spending.html
Mr. Pink
08-17-2020, 06:17 AM
Now you have to know that's an anomaly in these shutdown times, due to the lack of spending in the other two holes that most middle class people throw their money into, eating out and travel. If that money was actually being "saved", you would see inflows to retirement savings companies like Vanguard and Fidelity explode. You aren't.
paredown
08-17-2020, 06:39 AM
One of the problems is that the "relief" was predicated on a quick recovery from Covid, and that is not happening. In the absence of further relief, a lot of people (including us) will be in trouble.
Our bank for example came up with a program to delay mortgage payments--also predicated on a quick recovery since it was for 90 days only--and guess what--we're not back to work, and the program is over. Luckily, there are options that don't require a lump sum payback.
We're hoping that there is further assistance in some form or other, or that will be it for us.
Lots of other people though--just like 2008. Those with jobs that allow remote work and haven't skipped a beat are buying new cars or lining up at Home Depot for project materials, buying swimming pools and gardening like fiends (my nursery friends say it was their bet year ever). Those of us whose livelihoods disappeared are looking at a bleak future. I did read a cautionary story in the Times this weekend though--apparently a bunch of young gig economy folks moved up to Kingston, NY, and their move was predicated on their ability to maintain their self-created income stream, and with that blown to bits, they are now facing house payments with no ability to pay...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/realestate/kingston-coronavirus-new-residents.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Real%20Estate
Mr. Pink
08-17-2020, 06:43 AM
Right. The stimulus has been floating millions, along with eviction and foreclosure moratoriums. Now that that's gone, we're going to see a harsh reality we've been avoiding for months. Combine that with school closures, and this fall/winter looks rough.
not taking sides here. but you're not wrong. in addition, one problem is the used market for vehicles is skyrocketing here. while lots of people have no problem signing up for an 8 year payment plan on a depreciating asset, a lot of people do. and they're bidding up used vehicles like crazy. I sold our extra car in 30 minutes last week. it had 180k on the odo and a totally blown out steering rack. I could have probably gotten twice what i listed it for. In LA right now i'd almost rather buy a new hyundai for 20k with a 100k mile warranty than someone elses problem for $8k, it's that bad right now. i really can't believe the amount of new paper plates from the dealer i've seen on the street since march, it's incredible.
I think a bunch of of the people buying cars right are people that previously relied on public transportation and rental cars but now, due to COVID-19, want a personal automobile to get them places. I know a number of my colleagues who live in NYC who previously did not have cars have purchased/leased vehicles in the past 6 months to give themselves a means of getting in/out of the city.
Now you have to know that's an anomaly in these shutdown times, due to the lack of spending in the other two holes that most middle class people throw their money into, eating out and travel. If that money was actually being "saved", you would see inflows to retirement savings companies like Vanguard and Fidelity explode. You aren't.
There is likely at least a subset of people who are choosing to stash cash/savings in more liquid accounts (savings, non-retirement investment accounts, etc.) - prioritizing an emergency slush fund of sorts due to current economic uncertainty versus putting money away in retirement accounts. I have not, however, done any research to prove if this is true or not.
The new car market is just bizarre. Why do people need new cars? Nobody is going anywhere. I haven't put jack on my odometer in months. Work from home means no commuting.
Work from home means work from wherever. If you got out you would see busy highways and resort area's doing at least brisk business. I will also add that vacation homes are selling like crazy too.
Interesting times.
C40_guy
08-17-2020, 11:03 AM
My girlfriend rotates for work
Sounds like an interesting job. Is she dizzy when she gets home?
:)
bigbill
08-17-2020, 11:10 AM
I'm in Kingman, AZ. If a home is stucco, at least 3 bedroom, 2 bath, around 1800 square feet, three car garage, and RV parking, it will be gone in a few days. California is moving here and bringing cash. I've built up my savings nicely because of C19 but now I'm buying a house. I was renting a nice place but the new house is bigger and $30 more a month than I was paying in rent. Kind of a no-brainer.
tbike4
08-17-2020, 11:13 AM
Sounds like an interesting job. Is she dizzy when she gets home?
:)
That is funny. I won't speculate.
hokoman
08-17-2020, 11:50 AM
I feel like NYC and the boroughs is similar to the months after 9/11... People were selling their apartments to get out of here. But NY came back, and it will again. Housing is always an interesting market, and colleges make a big impact in the rental market, however NYC might be different in that sense. When I was a student at Columbia, almost everyone I knew lived in student housing, same for my friend at NYU, and we all lived on campus all 4 years. A lot of these schools lost a ton of money (hundreds of millions) on their real estate holdings.
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the market long term. I will have 2 apartments coming up for rent in the next month or so in Carroll Gardens. I think nicer areas of Brooklyn are still desirable (keeping my fingers crossed). The thing I see most of is short term sublets that people leave temporarily with the intent to be back in a couple months.
My friend just listed one of his buildings for sale (Park Slope, 2 family) and moved to his Hamptons house for the time being since he elected to keep his daughter online at school. He listed his building for $4.9 million - I think it's overpriced by about $1 - 1.5 Million, but he's been talking about moving to CA for the last 2 years.
AngryScientist
08-17-2020, 11:54 AM
one thing is for sure, i'd be pretty worried if i owned FiDi real estate at the moment.
pdonk
08-17-2020, 01:39 PM
In the GTA rental prices are down, purchase prices are up.
Rentals are down as airbnb units are no longer legal and entering the market.
Both resale and new product prices up due to low supply and low interest rates. There is significant pent up demand due to low ground related construction numbers over past 10 years. Ground related prices will likely stay strong for foreseeable future. Condo pricing will likely decline as speculators leave market.
BobbyJones
08-17-2020, 02:30 PM
Big eyeopener today.
Overpriced hail mary listing on Thursday in a historically stagnant area of New Haven County. Sold today in a "best offer plus %" bidding over ask.
This market is totally bananas.
Ken Robb
08-17-2020, 02:43 PM
In the GTA rental prices are down, purchase prices are up.
Rentals are down as airbnb units are no longer legal and entering the market.
Both resale and new product prices up due to low supply and low interest rates. There is significant pent up demand due to low ground related construction numbers over past 10 years. Ground related prices will likely stay strong for foreseeable future. Condo pricing will likely decline as speculators leave market.
what is "GTA"?
Most likely Greater Toronto Area.
Irishgirl
08-19-2020, 10:43 AM
Back in May I put an offer in on a place that sat on the market for several months. The place previously was a rental and the seller wanted out from underneath the mortgage. At that time the market was starting to pick up and a couple of other places I had considered went under contract.
The day I closed my neighbor who bought back in September 2019 sold her place within weeks and made 10% over her purchase price.
One draw back is the property taxes are a bit high compared to other surrounding cities...with the trade off being a town on the train stop...wide open spaces...easy to jump on the bike and head to rural places to ride without having to fight traffic...and it’s safe.
The other benefit of buying now is borrowing money is very cheep...I can easily consider making my purchase a rental property in the next couple of years when I pick up and move...and stop being a flat lander. [emoji4]
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slowpoke
08-19-2020, 10:47 AM
One draw back is the property taxes are a bit high compared to other surrounding cities...with the trade off being a town on the train stop...wide open spaces...easy to jump on the bike and head to rural places to ride without having to fight traffic...and it’s safe.
Access to public transit is always attractive for a house, despite decades of anti-transit ideology permeating this country.
And not to single you out, but property taxes generally mean the town is a nicer place to live. Like bikes, towns and society need continual maintenance and funding.
R3awak3n
08-19-2020, 10:56 AM
In the catskills prices are shot up... I am not surprised. Inventory is low and anything that comes on the market, is priced higher than before and gets sold quickly (unless its super high end stuff). Definitely happy I bought 3 years ago.
AJosiahK
08-19-2020, 11:03 AM
im outside of bos... its ridicious
the bubble here is so thick to say, its very stable and vastly overpriced.
Where I am you cant find a room for less than 1200. Im in a building that sadly hasnt been taken care of and the landlord is pretty non existant. Thats kept my partner there however... its cheap
Irishgirl
08-19-2020, 11:26 AM
Access to public transit is always attractive for a house, despite decades of anti-transit ideology permeating this country.
And not to single you out, but property taxes generally mean the town is a nicer place to live. Like bikes, towns and society need continual maintenance and funding.
Agreed
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tuxbailey
08-19-2020, 11:46 AM
I think I refinanced too early :)
I am relieved that the tenants in my old townhouse is locked for three years and have one more year to go in the lease.
yngpunk
08-19-2020, 12:13 PM
I think I refinanced too early :)
I am relieved that the tenants in my old townhouse is locked for three years and have one more year to go in the lease.
If the economics make sense and unless the loan covenants prevent you from paying off the current loan early, talk to a mortgage broker(s) and see what they can do in regards to rates. Might still be worth while to refi.
firingsquad
08-20-2020, 11:35 AM
I was making offers on houses around 50k over asking price and getting outbid by cash buyers offering more. I'm in metro Boston, i'll never be able to afford a home here.
XXtwindad
08-20-2020, 12:44 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/amp/Will-you-finally-move-out-of-the-Bay-Area-due-to-15324903.php
“As companies like Twitter, Facebook and Square announced permanent work from home changes, some are undoubtedly wondering if it's time to flee for good. An anonymous survey of 4,400 tech workers, conducted by Blind, found that two-thirds of employees would consider leaving the Bay Area if they had the option to work remotely, as reported by Business Insider.”
Furthermore, San Francisco saw its biggest dip in rental prices in three years with a 9.2% decline in May. Meanwhile, demand for homebuying in places like Marin, Napa and Carmel has been soaring, real estate agents recently told Bloomberg, while contracts in San Francisco and Alameda County were well below where they were in 2019.
I bet a number of people who left the City for the CA Hinterlands are seeing their plans go up in smoke, unfortunately.
jtakeda
08-20-2020, 12:46 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/20/lyft-is-suspending-rideshare-operations-in-california/
Lyft leaves CA.
I wonder if this is going to affect the bay area economy at all. Is this the bellwether for things to come?
I only wish I was still living and working in the Bay to enjoy this momentous day.
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