eBay bidding strategy

[Wattvagen]

I've never really bought much on ebay and lost a few auctions recently.

i am aware that the bottle line when this happens is ultimately some other person is willing to pay more for an item than i am, and that is that.

what i really dont understand is these auto snipe bid moves where someone will wait until 20 seconds or something to place a bid? why would this be considered a good strategy?

if there is an auction with 9 days for example, and the most i am willing to pay for a particular wheelset is 800 dollars, it should make a difference if i place the 800 bid today or with 15 seconds left on the auction, right?

what is your strategy if you spot something you want on auction?

[jtakeda]

Most people dont actually bid like that on eBay is the thing. A lot of bidders are looking for a good deal or its an impulse buy. Ive found that on eBay its common for people to enter a number thats high enough to win the auction but isnt necessarily the highest they would pay.

But if youre disciplined and know what your limit is theres no harm in entering the highest number youre willing to pay and walking away and not looking at the auction until it ends.

I combine your technique with the snipe technique.

For example:

I had a record that was my #1 want and it was currently sitting at $100 with 2 minutes left. Most bidders interested will type in 120, 140, 160.

With 10 seconds left I'll enter $300 and hopefully win. Now if I had entered $300 with 2 minutes left it wouldve given 2 minutes for other low bidders to pick at my bid and the auto bid would raise the price.

By entering your high bid at the last second youre allowing the clock to work in your favor by making sure no one can enter a higher bid in after you which reduces your chance of having an over-bidder but also reduces the chance of someone picking at your bid making you pay a higher price.

[johnmdesigner]

I wait until the last hour but the important thing is I decide what I am willing to pay for it and I don't go beyond that point.
If someone else gets it fine. There is always another opportunity.

[bjf]

This

Most people dont actually bid like that on eBay is the thing. A lot of bidders are looking for a good deal or its an impulse buy. Ive found that on eBay its common for people to enter a number thats high enough to win the auction but isnt necessarily the highest they would pay.

But if youre disciplined and know what your limit is theres no harm in entering the highest number youre willing to pay and walking away and not looking at the auction until it ends.

I combine your technique with the snipe technique.

For example:

I had a record that was my #1 want and it was currently sitting at $100 with 2 minutes left. Most bidders interested will type in 120, 140, 160.

With 10 seconds left I'll enter $300 and hopefully win. Now if I had entered $300 with 2 minutes left it wouldve given 2 minutes for other low bidders to pick at my bid and the auto bid would raise the price.

By entering your high bid at the last second youre allowing the clock to work in your favor by making sure no one can enter a higher bid in after you which reduces your chance of having an over-bidder but also reduces the chance of someone picking at your bid making you pay a higher price.

[jtakeda]

I wait until the last hour but the important thing is I decide what I am willing to pay for it and I don't go beyond that point.
If someone else gets it fine. There is always another opportunity.

This is really the key. Be disciplined and it wont make a difference.

Sometimes eBay will give you hints as to what the high bid is. Ie you enter $200 and the bid jumps up to $202 even though at that price the bid increment should be higher than $2. So you know the highest bid is $202 and it makes you spend more than you should.

[muz]

To put it in game theoretical context, it makes no difference when you place your bid, when you are going against rational bidders. But there are irrational, impulsive bidders who will reconsider and increase their bids if given the chance. Against those, your best strategy is to bid at at the last second.

[jtakeda]

To put it in game theoretical context, it makes no difference when you place your bid, when you are going against rational bidders. But there are irrational, impulsive bidders who will reconsider and increase their bids if given the chance. Against those, your best strategy is to bid at at the last second.

Not to mention unscrupulous sellers who can have a friend or worse create a 2nd ebay profile and shill bid against your high bid and make you pay the highest price

[johnmdesigner]

That's fine but you're not the only one who knows this strategy
You can easily get stuck paying 300 for something that's worth 100.
Again, pick a number and stick with it

[jtakeda]

That's fine but you're not the only one who knows this strategy
You can easily get stuck paying 300 for something that's worth 100.
Again, pick a number and stick with it

In my example $300 was my max bid. I was willing to pay $300.

My rationale was most people looking at a $100 current bid are thinking in the scale of $20-30 will win this auction.

The point is a late bid makes the end time work in your favor by not allowing people to pick at your bid or realize theres interest and raise their bid. When you put in your high bid does make a difference

[tuxbailey]

Same with Jtakeda.

I will place my bid 30 seconds before end so I myself a few seconds to reconsider. So if my plan is to spend $500 on an item, I will bid that with 30 seconds and if I am way above other reserve then I don't care since my bid will go down to be just above the last max bid.

If I still get outbid I would allow myself one extra with a few dollars or 10% more if I want the item.

But with only 30 seconds it would also limit any chance I want to keep chasing it.

[Geeheeb]

I decide how much I'm going to spend and then put a snipe into gixen and see what happens. sorry if my mantis style defeats your crane style.

[tuxbailey]

That's fine but you're not the only one who knows this strategy
You can easily get stuck paying 300 for something that's worth 100.
Again, pick a number and stick with it

From my experience I am not stuck at $300 unless previous max bid is $299?

[carpediemracing]

Here's the thing. If no one bids on something then it's "not wanted". Bidding increases the perceived value of the item. If no one bids and you bid $800 at a minute to go, then just one person "wanted" the item. There isn't much time to reflect on how much you want the thing.

On the other hand if you bid $800 with 6 days to go, that means someone (you) wants it. And if there's just one item (most eBay items are one item) then the person that's on the fence about it might think, "Oh, I better keep an eye on it." And then they might bid $810 or whatever, and now you're thinking, "Well, it's worth $900 tops" and you go to $820 etc.

I learned the hard way that eBay's timer has some lag. If I'm interested in something I'll set an alarm and bid. In the old days it was 10-15 seconds before end of auction. Now it's 1 min before. Lag is just under 1 min, at least that's what it appears to me for the couple items I bid on in the last couple years. One was just 2-3 weeks ago, the other about 5-6 weeks ago - same item, different sellers, and my "perceived value" went up about $80 due to me missing out on my second bid in the last minute.

For me it was bare modular crank arms (Cannondale SI). My perceived value was $100, and I was prepared to bid up to $120. I did a trial bid to make sure I was logged in (I lost a bit years ago because I got logged out due to elapsed time and couldn't log back in in time). That bumped the price up to about $100. I waited to put in my bid but when I did, at about 30s, it told me the item was sold. And at $108 or so. When I saw the same cranks again (I've been looking for 6 months?) I was willing to bid up to $180, and I think I did. I won at about $160. It came with a spider and good chainrings so I may list those to help offset the cost of the arms.

Another thing is the "minimum next bid" thing. Basically if the item is listed at $800 with a $1 increment, the first bid over $801 will simply say "$801". You can bid your budget, like $900, but the bid will just step the price to the next minimum increment. This has the effect of rapidly increasing price. It's best to show your hand at the end of the auction, and put down your max perceived value.

It looks like this, based on $800 start with $1 increment (latter is set by seller):

Your bid // Others' bid/s // What Shows on eBay

A. -//-//$800 opening bid
B. $900 // - // $800
C. $900 // $802 // $803 --- in this line another bidder has bid $802. Because your max bid is $900, eBay automatically puts in the next increment, in your favor. So the other bid was $802 so eBay says you're committed to $802.
D. $900 // $901 // $901 --- now you have to decide - is the item worth more than $901? And you don't know what the other bidder bid.

D1. $900 // $1200 // $901 (example 1, where other bidder is okay to $1200)
D2. $900 // $950 // $901 (example 2, where other bidder bid higher than minimum but just $50 more)
D3. $900 // $902 // $901 (example 3, where other bidder bid just a couple bucks higher).

This is where human nature comes into play, and this is why eBay is interesting. As a bidder you now have some sweat equity in the item. You want it. It's exciting. You don't know when you'll see another item like this listed. Your perceived value is going up a bit. Maybe it's a $2000 frameset, and $901 is a great price for it. What's it worth? It's very easy to justify going up just a few more dollars. And the whole time the other bidder is thinking the same thing.

[carpediemracing]

From my experience I am not stuck at $300 unless previous max bid is $299?

Correct.

However minimum price increase might be $10, so if someone bit $299 the next bid might have to be $309, in which case your $300 would not be enough. I haven't sold in forever so I don't know if you can still choose bid increments.

[muz]

Here's the thing. If no one bids on something then it's "not wanted". Bidding increases the perceived value of the item. If no one bids and you bid $800 at a minute to go, then just one person "wanted" the item. There isn't much time to reflect on how much you want the thing.


And this is my definition of "irrational bidder" in a game theory context :banana:

[jtakeda]

Correct.

However minimum price increase might be $10, so if someone bit $299 the next bid might have to be $309, in which case your $300 would not be enough. I haven't sold in forever so I don't know if you can still choose bid increments.

You dont choose. eBay has set bid increments depending on what the current bid is.

[Wattvagen]

You dont choose. eBay has set bid increments depending on what the current bid is.

so does that mean if the bid increment is $5, and the current high bid is $300, i can not be the high bidder if i bid $304? In that case the 300 remains high bid?

[jtakeda]

so does that mean if the bid increment is $5, and the current high bid is $300, i can not be the high bidder if i bid $304? In that case the 300 remains high bid?

Correct.

you will get an error that tells you that the bid increment is $5 and eBay will suggest that you bid $305 or higher.

It sucks when youre a buyer, it rules when youre the seller

[C40_guy]

what is your strategy if you spot something you want on auction?

I've been using esnipe for years, and I use a 3 second end-of-auction bid strategy.

In the early days of eBay, I tried to do that manually. (Enter bid, submit, refresh, repeat...) Sometimes it worked...

If I'm willing to pay $300 for an item, I'll enter $301 or $306 as my max. That way, if another bidder posts a round number (say of $300), which is fairly likely, I'll have a good chance of beating their bid.

A couple of times esnipe has failed technically. However, it's worked for me in literally hundreds of other auctions. And of course I get notification in advance if I need to raise my bid (or let the item go)...

[ernmony]

I decide how much I'm going to spend and then put a snipe into gixen and see what happens. sorry if my mantis style defeats your crane style.

+1 everyone else is overthinking this....

[unterhausen]

I wait until the last hour but the important thing is I decide what I am willing to pay for it and I don't go beyond that point.
If someone else gets it fine. There is always another opportunity.
This is very similar to what I do. Except I wait until the last second that I think the transaction will go through. If I get sniped by someone else, I don't care because I bid exactly the amount that if the price is one bid increment higher, I will be happy I didn't pay that much.

Bidding early just invites people to test how high your bid is and it costs you money, even if you have a successful bid. Too much ego on there.

[tbike4]

I'm a sniper. It's been about a year since I actually bid in an auction. Some say it's cheating. I say it's technology so I use it.

[pjbaz]

I've done both, and while I haven't bought on ebay in literally years, I found the sniper bots to be the best way to get an item at your best price.

I hate to mention my strategy but ***, I can't be the only one ... MY best technique is to bid a stupid number that wins by playing to the need for people to have round numbers. For example, most people bid in rounded off numbers $300, $425 etc. I add the cents in - ALWAYS more than .50 ... $37.85, $425.97, etc.

You'd be surprised how many times that extra $.77 wins the auction :banana:

[KJMUNC]

I've done both, and while I haven't bought on ebay in literally years, I found the sniper bots to be the best way to get an item at your best price.

I hate to mention my strategy but ***, I can't be the only one ... MY best technique is to bid a stupid number that wins by playing to the need for people to have round numbers. For example, most people bid in rounded off numbers $300, $425 etc. I add the cents in - ALWAYS more than .50 ... $37.85, $425.97, etc.

You'd be surprised how many times that extra $.77 wins the auction :banana:

Yep, same here.....funny sometimes how I lose things I really wanted by <$5 but then win random stuff with little/no activity. Ultimately the random number generator approach works pretty well.

[tctyres]

I decide how much I'm going to spend and then put a snipe into gixen and see what happens. sorry if my mantis style defeats your crane style.

+1

I use esnipe.
I figure out what I'm willing to pay, then add a little more to make it an odd number.

Say something starts at $1. I know the market price is going to be around $400, but ebay is likely going to max at $200. I might put a snipe in at $300 and let it ride. The thing is, I've won a fair number of auctions by adding that little odd bit: make it 302.50. Yep. That'll do'er.

[spank]

+1 on the "sniping" technique. But it's more to keep me from being goaded into paying more for something than my rational Self tells me is the most I should/will pay.

1 shot. If I win, I win. If I don't, then someone wanted it more.

I'm somewhat the same way when it comes to buying stuff on classifieds and so forth. I don't like the whole "make me an offer" or non-specific price thing, either as a buyer or as a seller. Tell me your price. If it is something that I'm willing to pay, I'll pay it. If it's not, I (generally) won't try to talk you down.

[cinema]

agree i only, and always, use gixen on ebay. set the bid a few days ahead for the last final seconds of the auction. walk away. i get email in my inbox that i won, or i don't.

[retropean]

Carpediem has it right on. I found that Ken Rockwell’s guide is pretty spot on:

https://www.kenrockwell.com/tech/ebay/index.htm

Bidding only at the last second is the best way to spare people from paying too much. Never bid earlier than the last few seconds. If you do, all the other bidders will get emails and instant messages and pages letting them know they just got outbid with enough time to act on it.

Early bidding, the worst sin on eBay, jacks up prices for everyone. Sellers and eBay love it, but if you want to pay the best prices and win, never bid before the last moment.

[Coda1]

I've tried bidding early and at the last second. I've had mixed luck both ways but seem to do a little better snipping right at the end. Usually that is what I do now if it is convenient.

[pcb]

I'm typically a last-few-seconds sniper, and I usually bid in numerical pallindromes: $21.12, $32.23, $87.78, etc. Nothing rational about that last bit.

Don't use sniping programs, though I suppose that'd be more rational, because part of the fun is the sniping.

I have zero understanding of people who somehow think sniping is cheating. It's just using the ebay system/rules as designed, and if I beat you it simply means I bid higher. I understand it can be frustrating if you lose, especially in the last few seconds, but it still just means somebody else outbid you. You weren't cheated just because that happened in the final seconds.

I'm led to believe some other auction sites act more like actual auctions, meaning an auction isn't ended until nobody outbids the final bidder. Or they extend the auction time when late bids are placed.

One disappointing trend on ebay is the seemingly increasing numbers of non-auction, Buy It Now listings, even for things like used bicycles/gear. Seems like despite an increased number of listings, there's less to actually bid on.

[rolandtiangco]

I too am an occasional sniper, and I worked at ebay for 5+ years on the core product. Agree on the above point that sniping is within the rules as-designed. That doesn’t make me any less pissed when I loose an auction last second though.

Sniping programs are convenient but we didn’t care for them. FYI, placing bids from the app is just as fast, if not faster, depending on your connection.

[NYCfixie]

I think your first point is important because it ensures that the seller (and auction house) make the most money especially since people's egos gets into the bidding frenzy especially for in-person auctions. I think the Buy-It-Now is in response to the sniping and many more commercial rather than individual sellers. As we all know, eBay is simply not what it used to be when it was predominately individuals buying and selling. Now it is just another eCommerce platform.

I have been on eBay for more than 20 years and have always maintained "buy" and "sell" accounts. I use to bid on my buy account and list auctions on my sell account. Now I only snipe on my buy account and use Buy-It-Now on my sell account.



I'm led to believe some other auction sites act more like actual auctions, meaning an auction isn't ended until nobody outbids the final bidder. Or they extend the auction time when late bids are placed.

One disappointing trend on ebay is the seemingly increasing numbers of non-auction, Buy It Now listings, even for things like used bicycles/gear. Seems like despite an increased number of listings, there's less to actually bid on.

[pcb]

+1 kinda to all of this.

I've found that sniping on my computers has always been easy and instant. Once in a while I'll blink one times too many and miss out, but I can usually bid in the last 3-2sec and get my bid in. These days, as I grow more ancient and more patient, I'm generally bidding the last 6-5sec.

My phone is another story, Galaxy S8, Android whatever. My cell coverage at home is generally pretty good, as is my wireless signal strength, but my last-sec ebay phone bids often are delayed by a few sec, so on the phone I generally want to snipe not later than the last 10sec or so.

Where sniping programs would come in handy, for me, would be auctions that are ending at inconvenient or impossible times. There aren't many things I would stay up till 4am to bid on, and in pre-covid times, when my workplace wasn't virtual, it was often inconvenient to bid on things at work.

And yeah, even though sniping isn't against the rules, and I know how it works, and I do it routinely, I can get pissed off if somebody outsnipes me. I usually try to console myself with "Well, sir, you placed your highest bid, the other fella's higher bid won, pip-pip, cheerio and all that," but I'm usually shouting "Dagnabbit! Why didn't I bid a little higher????!!!!! I was ROBBED!!!!!!"

QUOTE=rolandtiangco;2766594]I too am an occasional sniper, and I worked at ebay for 5+ years on the core product. Agree on the above point that sniping is within the rules as-designed. That doesn’t make me any less pissed when I loose an auction last second though.

Sniping programs are convenient but we didn’t care for them. FYI, placing bids from the app is just as fast, if not faster, depending on your connection.[/QUOTE]

[559Rando]

Bidding your top dollar later does help. And eBay used to (perhaps still does!) tell you to not do that, which I find funny. Of course they do!

Unless something's changed, to my knowledge a lot of sniping (most) is also done by 3rd party apps/bots/APIs, which are often a paid service. Timing wise, I don't think you can beat those things, but they do have to have a higher bid, of course.

Overall, I wish eBay would 1) modernize and 2) become friendlier and more interesting like it was in the 90s/early aughts!

[daker13]

I don't really buy more than a few things a year on ebay but back in the day I would use esnipe and I won many, many auctions this way. Mostly lps and stereo gear, but all types of things. It was more useful then, less useful now that the geniuses running ebay have ruined the site by trying to turn it into a version of walmartdotcom, where Joe Shmoe feels nice and safe saving seven cents on a video game that he could have bought in dozens of other places. But I still use esnipe sometimes even now.

The basic idea with esnipe--and again, this is less relevant now that so much stuff is sold using Buy It Now--is that just by bidding on something, you're alerting other bidders that another consumer sees it as having value. If you're the seller, you want lots of early bids on your item, driving up the price, and then, hopefully, the last second snipes drive the price up further. Snipe programs are particularly useful if, say, the seller has undervalued the item, listen it wrong, etc.

If you're very disciplined, it doesn't matter whether you use esnipe or not. You just decide on the price you're willing to pay, put in the bid, don't be irrational, and you're done; same thing if you're putting in a traditional bid. But ime it's much to your advantage to snipe if it's a traditional auction situation. The psychological aspect will cause many to bid unreasonably, as if they're never going to see the item again--or maybe, bidders allow themselves to see the auction as a competition and bid up the price for that reason.

The afternoon that Michael Jackson died, people were bidding trashed vinyl copies of Thriller up to $600 or more--an album that was barely worth $4 the day before, an album that sold in the tens of millions. I myself wouldn't want to make money that way, but there are people that do (and I know some of them).