COVID-19 discussion thread, Volume n+1

[AngryScientist]

Good morning.

Hope everyone had a nice evening off from Covid discussion on your favorite cycling forum.

New thread open!

Behave yourselves.

[AngryScientist]

This morning I heard on the radio that the ICP (Insane Clown Posse) cancelled the 20 year tradition of the "Gathering of the Juggalos".

Damn

[OtayBW]

Guess I didn't get the memo on that....:rolleyes:

[Elefantino]

I'm wondering how the history books will look back on us.

[tuscanyswe]

I'm wondering how the history books will look back on us.

In what way are u thinking?

[oldpotatoe]

Last couple of days, as wife and I do our daily walk, we are seeing more people w/o masks(which I view as somebody who GAS about all this), more people hanging out in groups. Less and less 'social distancing', 'stay at home'..the 'feeling' seems to be "gee, the worse is over"...
I think this whole gig, as more people are tested and the TRUE infection rate is discovered to be MUCH higher than reported, is far from over. When communities see a YUGE spike in infections, it will be even harder to go back to stay at home, then before, unless the person is personally impacted by a sickness or death. Gonna get ugly...

History? Many(me too) hope this has an impact on the US' gooned up health care insurance system. BUT that's gonna be a tough road since so many politicians are in the pocket of BigPharma/Healthcare(and BigOil too). Too much partisanship, too much tribalism, to many egos involved where being re-elected is the end, not the means to an end.

A more sustainable, less consumer driven society? Cleaner? Better healthcare? Nope, nope and nope..

[CNY rider]

This morning I heard on the radio that the ICP (Insane Clown Posse) cancelled the 20 year tradition of the "Gathering of the Juggalos".

Damn

If you want to blow off steam and laugh.....find the recording of ICP in the studio with Howard Stern and Sharon Osbourne at the same time.

[Velocipede]

In what way are u thinking?

It depends on who and what is remembered or questioned. The wikipedia page is going to be bigger than any other that's for sure.

[Velocipede]

Last couple of days, as wife and I do our daily walk, we are seeing more people w/o masks(which I view as somebody who GAS about all this), more people hanging out in groups. Less and less 'social distancing', 'stay at home'..the 'feeling' seems to be "gee, the worse is over"...
I think this whole gig, as more people are tested and the TRUE infection rate is discovered to be MUCH higher than reported, is far from over. When communities see a YUGE spike in infections, it will be even harder to go back to stay at home, then before, unless the person is personally impacted by a sickness or death. Gonna get ugly...

We have a "secret" page on FB for our city and a bunch of people are posting pics or video of people with no masks or not social distancing. For some people, they are concerned, others, holy wow are they done with this whole thing and are starting to threaten others for even bringing it up. It's turning ugly here. And we are far from done with it.

[saab2000]

I wear a mask in enclosed spaces like stores or my favorite carryout restaurants. Unless I am given a really good reason to do so, I'm not planning on wearing it while doing my short bike rides or my morning 5-mile solo walks where I encounter no other people within 15-20 feet.

I'm not sure wearing one all the time, even outdoors, does anything.

Many I see are poorly fitting anyway and don't even cover a person's nose.

[Velocipede]

This morning I heard on the radio that the ICP (Insane Clown Posse) cancelled the 20 year tradition of the "Gathering of the Juggalos".

Damn

While they bring money to the area, the people near Nelson Ledges here in Ohio hate the event. The event leaves the place an absolute mess. The show pics in the Scene Magazine all the time when it's held in Ohio. And the Ledges are beautiful. It's a really cool family place.

[Elefantino]

In what way are u thinking?
I don't want a timeout, nor do I want to contribute to the devolution of the thread.

[AngryScientist]

Gonna get ugly...



in many ways.

Memorial Day is looming, unofficial start to the summer.

LOTS of businesses depend on making big money starting that weekend, which will surely not be lucrative this year.

I know the Jersey Shore is going to take a beating this year. Really sad. I'm jonesing to have a cheesesteak on the boardwalk in the sun.

[tuscanyswe]

I don't want a timeout, nor do I want to contribute to the devolution of the thread.

Roger that, lets stay clear of politics as much as we can.

[Mikej]

I'm wondering how the history books will look back on us.

Insert future google link here __________ to support whatever agrees with your opinion.

Oh and the masks are nowhere near as protective as people think, it’s the TOUCHING of contaminated areas and then TOUCHING your face / eyes / mouth / nose. So you probably contaminate the mask taking it on / off.
https://www.livescience.com/are-face-masks-effective-reducing-coronavirus-spread.html

[tbike4]

When I first read ICP, oh wait this thread just started. I was going to start a thread about the driving habits I have witnessed while riding my bike during the last month. With light or no traffic on local roads it seems some drivers view a red light as a mere suggestion of stopping or just an option. Hmmm... look both ways, only a bicycle on the road, hit the gas and go.

[Mikej]

Kids are going back to school in Denmark -

[zap]

edit


Many I see are poorly fitting anyway and don't even cover a person's nose.

I wore what I thought was a properly fitted mask (one with a metal nose pinch tab) covering mouth and nose while painting a steel I-beam under our deck. When I was done and took the mask off I was surprised and amused by how much black paint got behind the mask and down the sides of my nose.

[fiamme red]

The running of the bulls in Pamplona has been "suspended indefinitely."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/non-running-of-the-bulls-san-fermin-festival-suspended-over-covid-19

[Mikej]

So, with hospitals basically shutting down, other than the 11 beds with coved patients at my wife’s hospital, what are health insurance companies doing with all of that money that’s being taken out of my check?

[AngryScientist]

So, with hospitals basically shutting down, other than the 11 beds with coved patients at my wife’s hospital, what are health insurance companies doing with all of that money that’s being taken out of my check?

what on earth are you talking about?

[Mikej]

what on earth are you talking about?

There are virtually no patients in the beds at the hospitals in my state. All of our health care work friends are on limited schedules or furloughed due to the lack of patients.

[AngryScientist]

There are virtually no patients in the beds at the hospitals in my state. All of our health care work friends are on limited schedules or furloughed due to the lack of patients.

Well here on the front lines mike - we cant find enough health care workers. we've called for retired people to come join the fight, we've graduated medical school students early so they can help, and we're pulling in school nurses and everyone who can raise a hand to help. hospitals are overwhelmed, and the staff is literally killing themselves to keep up, they're exhausted.

maybe instead of complaining about having to continue to pay health insurance premiums, you count yourself lucky that you have a job, health coverage, and live in an area that has not yet been ravaged by this virus. maybe you keep your fingers crosses that a major outbreak doesnt hit your area, and completely overwhelm your hospital.

your choice though.

[Cantdog]

There are virtually no patients in the beds at the hospitals in my state. All of our health care work friends are on limited schedules or furloughed due to the lack of patients.


Insurance companies exist to make money...so they are pocketing your money.

[fiamme red]

The manufacturer of Lysol has just issued a warning:

https://www.rb.com/media/news/2020/april/improper-use-of-disinfectants/

Improper use of Disinfectants

Due to recent speculation and social media activity, RB (the makers of Lysol and Dettol) has been asked whether internal administration of disinfectants may be appropriate for investigation or use as a treatment for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

As a global leader in health and hygiene products, we must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route). As with all products, our disinfectant and hygiene products should only be used as intended and in line with usage guidelines. Please read the label and safety information.

We have a responsibility in providing consumers with access to accurate, up-to-date information as advised by leading public health experts. For this and other myth-busting facts, please visit Covid-19facts.com.

[thwart]

A day in the life of an ER triage nurse. An inspiring read.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/nyregion/coronavirus-triage-nurse-lenox-hill-nyc.html

[Mikej]

Well here on the front lines mike - we cant find enough health care workers. we've called for retired people to come join the fight, we've graduated medical school students early so they can help, and we're pulling in school nurses and everyone who can raise a hand to help. hospitals are overwhelmed, and the staff is literally killing themselves to keep up, they're exhausted.

maybe instead of complaining about having to continue to pay health insurance premiums, you count yourself lucky that you have a job, health coverage, and live in an area that has not yet been ravaged by this virus. maybe you keep your fingers crosses that a major outbreak doesnt hit your area, and completely overwhelm your hospital.

your choice though.

Yeah we (our state) graduated RNs and MDs early as well. My wife and I are both on reduced work schedules and money.

[JStonebarger]

I wear a mask in enclosed spaces like stores or my favorite carryout restaurants. Unless I am given a really good reason to do so, I'm not planning on wearing it while doing my short bike rides or my morning 5-mile solo walks where I encounter no other people within 15-20 feet...

Pretty much what I'm doing as well. My only hesitation is that some people will take it as irresponsible or unsupportive, as Peter does above.

[Spdntrxi]

I wear a mask whenever I plan to go outside of my property line...period

[AngryScientist]

The manufacturer of Lysol has just issued a warning:

https://www.rb.com/media/news/2020/april/improper-use-of-disinfectants/

lol.

i can only imagine the zoom meeting that led to that one. haha.

[Monsieur Toast]

Yeah we graduated RNs and MDs early as well. My wife and I are both on reduced work schedules and money. I can’t bitch on “your” forum?

I'd venture it seems like a weird thing to "bitch" about to most folks these days. I feel lucky right now that my health insurance isn't being actively used, but I still pay for it in case something bad happens. Kind of like always ....

[AngryScientist]

I wear a mask whenever I plan to go outside of my property line...period

what, from your perspective, will determine when you wont do that any longer?

[boywander]

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums%2Ethepaceline%2Enet %2Fshowthread%2Ephp%3Ft%3D250709&share_tid=250709&share_fid=60324&share_type=t&link_source=app

Delete if necessary.

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[MrCannonCam]

Well here on the front lines mike - we cant find enough health care workers. we've called for retired people to come join the fight, we've graduated medical school students early so they can help, and we're pulling in school nurses and everyone who can raise a hand to help. hospitals are overwhelmed, and the staff is literally killing themselves to keep up, they're exhausted.

maybe instead of complaining about having to continue to pay health insurance premiums, you count yourself lucky that you have a job, health coverage, and live in an area that has not yet been ravaged by this virus. maybe you keep your fingers crosses that a major outbreak doesnt hit your area, and completely overwhelm your hospital.

your choice though.


Our hospitals in the northeast certainly aren't shutting down...I do work for the oxygen suppliers (as well as other gases for manufacturing but o2 is most relevant right now) and some of the systems are pulling hundreds of times what the systems were ever rated for. I'm grateful we're still extremely busy and I work outside on these systems nowhere near people but it's chaos out there. A lot of the systems we go out to work on are near the refrigerated trailers that are being temporarily used in the hospitals with overfilled morgues. It's very very eerie seeing the funeral homes pull up and drag bodies out of a trailer. I've talked to a few of the maintenance staff at the hospitals and there are a massive number of ventilators running compared to normal (example, Hackensack Meriden in Perth Amboy NJ usually runs 1-3 at a time in normal operating times and they were running 46 last week when I was there...)

I've got friends and family in Utah still and the magnitude of it all hasn't really hit yet there (UT is still one of a few states with no stay at home order). Not pointing to any irresponbility but unless you are in a highly effected area and see it, probably hard to grasp how big of a deal it all is.

A lot of people out and about doing things here in the Lehigh Valley on the good weather days but most seem to be responsible in social distance, and PA now requires masks in all stores. A big issue seems to be recreational areas on the NJ border as they closed all parks there. The Del Water Gap area is bad enough when the weather gets warm, I'm afraid to even drive by and see how bad that is right now...

[peanutgallery]

Think about job losses for a moment? Most on here have been lucky and have means. Think about the millions that don't. It's going to be a economic collapse of epic proportions that will drag on for quite some time

Lots of jobs won't come back for a while as the company they worked for will now be gone. Tons of folks are going to be really out of work. Other than the deaths, this too will leave a lasting impression. No time is a great time to be poor and without means, but it will be exponentially rougher for many

[fiamme red]

Whenever I walk or ride through NYC, I wonder how many of the closed stores, bars, and theaters will reopen when this is over.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html

Coogan’s Is Closing. This Is the New York That We’re Losing.

It was an Irish pub in Upper Manhattan that pulsed with the heartbeat of the world. It shut its doors because of the virus lockdown, and now they won’t reopen.

[Elefantino]

I just got back from a trip to the grocer. Limited number allowed inside, all but one woman I saw were wearing masks, most also gloved.

Shelves were well stocked (except for soups).

I feel fortunate to be able to shop and replenish my stocks without worry. Many, many others aren't so lucky.

[Spdntrxi]

what, from your perspective, will determine when you wont do that any longer?

I work in a cleanroom.. so I wear more protective gear then the average person daily and for more hours of that day, so it's not an abnormal feeling for me. I certainly dont enjoy cycling with a mask as it's getting warmer around my parts.

When will I stop ? Dont know probably when there is sufficient herd immunity and or when I am tested and have antibodies or a vaccine is widely available. I have an 80 year old mother in law, so mostly worried for her.

Through the grapevine my workplace has had 5 positives now and all of them are doing fine. One hospitalized but no ICU or anything. Pretty convinced this thing was around my area in late Dec 19'/ Jan 20' . I literally cant count how many coworkers went to China during Xmas and Chinese New year. Not to mention my kids classmates and parents that did the same.

[fbhidy]

Interesting article on mortality rates comparing C-19 with other major causes of death (New York graph is particularly disturbing):

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like


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[AngryScientist]

Whenever I walk or ride through NYC, I wonder how many of the closed stores, bars, and theaters will reopen when this is over.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html

it's absolutely tragic. NYC and all cities will be a different place when we open back up, whatever that winds up meaning.

i'm wondering what my coffee cart guy is doing these days? he was out there selling good coffee, doughnuts and great muffins every weekday of the year. in every weather condition imaginable. i never thought to ask him if he ever took a vacation. i never saw him NOT there.

what about the real big places on the Jersey Shore that count on making all of their $ for the year in a few months.

oye. this sucks.

https://www.nj.com/resizer/txDevIlkVLG6pBymkCPiMaslx4o=/1280x0/smart/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-advancelocal.s3.amazonaws.com/public/ROWBY2NQVVFQ3AXOY4P4BJLCNM.JPG

[OtayBW]

Pretty much what I'm doing as well. My only hesitation is that some people will take it as irresponsible or unsupportive, as Peter does above.

I wear a mask whenever I plan to go outside of my property line...period

I ordered some masks 14 days ago (Amazon) and now see that although it's been shipped, there is a "problem with the order. Rather than cancelling, please contact the vendor". Oh, yeah - right. Zero information about the vendor is available. I'm in no particular rush and will hold out a while longer, but I just thought this was a head slapper....

So, it's bandanna-face for me for a while....

[Monsieur Toast]

Think about job losses for a moment? Most on here have been lucky and have means. Think about the millions that don't.

Along with being out of work and the prospect of what waits on the other side, the delay in unemployment payments to a lot of my service industry friends (bar & casino) is taking a huge mental toll. On Sunday it's going to be six weeks since last paycheck for these friends and the unemployment system is absolutely, crushingly broken. My partner and I call it every morning when the lines open and give up after 500+ calls. Some friends are now starting to opine that the money isn't even real and they'll never get paid before it dries up after watching the PPP rollout.

[saab2000]

Insert future google link here __________ to support whatever agrees with your opinion.

Oh and the masks are nowhere near as protective as people think, it’s the TOUCHING of contaminated areas and then TOUCHING your face / eyes / mouth / nose. So you probably contaminate the mask taking it on / off.
https://www.livescience.com/are-face-masks-effective-reducing-coronavirus-spread.html

From what I understand most non medical grade masks aren't for protecting the wearer. They are intended to minimize the droplets we exhale or cough or sneeze out, protecting others.

I may be wrong on this but it's my understanding of why we are being encouraged to wear masks.

[merlinmurph]

lol.

i can only imagine the zoom meeting that led to that one. haha.

You do realize why they had to issue that statement, don't you?

[paredown]

Whenever I walk or ride through NYC, I wonder how many of the closed stores, bars, and theaters will reopen when this is over.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html

In the same vein--a paean to the restaurant Prune and the old East Village that spawned it.

Thirty five years in one restaurant--"the non-profit sector" as she jokes--and to have it more or less evaporate:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[AngryScientist]

You do realize why they had to issue that statement, don't you?

yes!

that's why i thought the zoom call was probably quite funny.

"he said what!"

lol

[OtayBW]

I just got back from a trip to the grocer. Limited number allowed inside, all but one woman I saw were wearing masks, most also gloved.

Shelves were well stocked (except for soups).

I feel fortunate to be able to shop and replenish my stocks without worry. Many, many others aren't so lucky.
Nice to hear that. I don't mind waiting to get in as long as it's worthwhile getting and not too crazy.

[weisan]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid-19-switzerland-matterhorn-singapore-flag-12674198

Every night, the mountain in the Swiss Alps has been illuminated with projections of images,... The illuminations are the work of artist Gerry Hofstetter, who kicked off the initiative last month by projecting the Swiss flag onto the mountain.

[merlinmurph]

This is just sad. (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/23/842551422/sadly-he-is-not-with-us-family-mourns-a-dad-who-denied-then-died-from-covid-19?sc=18&f=1001)

A staunch virus denier dies of the virus. I feel sad for his family and for his friends. There is so much bad information out there that people eat up. I guess some people hear what they want to hear. If nothing else, I hope some people can learn from this man's death.

[AngryScientist]

Another big issue and reminder:

Any of you who are still employed, i urge you to check and see if your employer has a donation match program and consider donating to your local food bank, or a national one.

shortages everywhere.

one issue in NYC land is many food bank and soup kitchens rely on city harvest and other services that collect unused restaurant food, expired supermarket goods, etc - and with these industries either flat out or closed, that source is drying up.

it's really, really sad that people are going hungry.

[RyanH]

On the hospital side of things, it is a serious issue. All of our clients across the country are flexing or furloughing staff (we don't service NJ/NY). Patients that needed essential surgeries were canceled and these hospitals are struggling now.

I read an article last night that said insurance premiums may go up between 4% and 40% next year because of COVID19.

[arcadian]

So, with hospitals basically shutting down, other than the 11 beds with coved patients at my wife’s hospital, what are health insurance companies doing with all of that money that’s being taken out of my check?

This is what is happening in Atlanta as well. Half empty hospitals and with very little revenue to keep them afloat. Atlanta isn't a small City.

[fiamme red]

Another big issue and reminder:

Any of you who are still employed, i urge you to check and see if your employer has a donation match program and consider donating to your local food bank, or a national one.

shortages everywhere.

one issue in NYC land is many food bank and soup kitchens rely on city harvest and other services that collect unused restaurant food, expired supermarket goods, etc - and with these industries either flat out or closed, that source is drying up.

it's really, really sad that people are going hungry.There's something seriously wrong with our society when farmers are destroying food and yet people are going hungry. :help:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html

In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil.

After weeks of concern about shortages in grocery stores and mad scrambles to find the last box of pasta or toilet paper roll, many of the nation’s largest farms are struggling with another ghastly effect of the pandemic. They are being forced to destroy tens of millions of pounds of fresh food that they can no longer sell...

[Spdntrxi]

On the hospital side of things, it is a serious issue. All of our clients across the country are flexing or furloughing staff (we don't service NJ/NY). Patients that needed essential surgeries were canceled and these hospitals are struggling now.

I read an article last night that said insurance premiums may go up between 4% and 40% next year because of COVID19.

most definitely.. hospitals are not making money. They need elective surgeries to be profitable. My wife works in that area and they have reduced hours+reduced pay at her entire company.

[Spdntrxi]

I ordered some masks 14 days ago (Amazon) and now see that although it's been shipped, there is a "problem with the order. Rather than cancelling, please contact the vendor". Oh, yeah - right. Zero information about the vendor is available. I'm in no particular rush and will hold out a while longer, but I just thought this was a head slapper....

So, it's bandanna-face for me for a while....

I ordered stuff in the beginning of March... most just recently cancelled and refunded. There is a lot of that going on with Amazon.

[Tony]

I just got back from a trip to the grocer. Limited number allowed inside, all but one woman I saw were wearing masks, most also gloved.

Shelves were well stocked (except for soups).

I feel fortunate to be able to shop and replenish my stocks without worry. Many, many others aren't so lucky.

Traders Joes in my area is doing a fantastic job. They only allow a certain amount of people inside. They have one employee retrieving carts, one sanitizing carts. Three people stand at the entrance, three designated spots.
When you inter they have three sanitized carts line up for you. All employees wear masks and gloves. Very impressed.

Worst is Compton's and Safeway

[AngryScientist]

There's something seriously wrong with our society when farmers are destroying food and yet people are going hungry. :help:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html

i dont know what the solution is, but this is incredibly sad and disturbing.

it's also a failure of government at a very fundamental level as i see it.

we have food, we have hungry people who cant afford food. we have to fix this.

i wonder if any lessons at all will be learned by this?

[jimcav]

Along with being out of work and the prospect of what waits on the other side, the delay in unemployment payments to a lot of my service industry friends (bar & casino) is taking a huge mental toll. On Sunday it's going to be six weeks since last paycheck for these friends and the unemployment system is absolutely, crushingly broken. My partner and I call it every morning when the lines open and give up after 500+ calls. Some friends are now starting to opine that the money isn't even real and they'll never get paid before it dries up after watching the PPP rollout.

I'm blessed to still be working, but family members are down 50-100% on income. Even in good times, the bureaucracy stinks with so many govt administered programs (pay issues when active duty transfer to new command, DMV, unemployment, the list goes on). We just got a confusing letter about how TriCare (military healthcare insurance) screwed up our premiums with respect to catastrophic care caps (from last year, way before COVID issues).

Congress and the FED (bank) are doing the right thing, but the execution really matters. Of all the times where the lag in administration and execution matters, this is it. And then of course you have the issues with undue influence of certain big industries/lobbies/cronyism impacting the roll-out of PPP and loans, etc.

The millions of unemployed and small businesses impacted could be an effective lobby, but it is undoubtedly very hard to do that given the circumstances. I can only hope enough members of congress continue to recognize the seriousness of the pandemic and continue to fund as needed, because it has real consequences to them and to the vulnerable.

As noted in a recent pre-publish study that looked at deaths from western Europe and US concluded: "Undoubtedly, reduced adherence to contact reduction measures, in populations tired of these measures or lowering these measures, will to lead to a resurgence in new infections"

[tuscanyswe]

Here in Stockholm new cases has started to increase a little again after beeing flat for some time.

1192 deaths confirmed total in stockholm so more than half of swedens total.
Out of these ppl 521 have been tested possitive at an elderly home and then passed on.

Out of 313 homes for the elderly in stockholm as many as 197 of them have had at least someone diagnosed with covid-19.

So almost 2/3rds of these homes have had the virus, thats a pretty big failure one have to say if those were the ppl we were going to protect the most ;/

[jimcav]

There's something seriously wrong with our society when farmers are destroying food and yet people are going hungry. :help:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html

50lbs to smaller individual consumer quantity. It is an issue of packaging and distribution. A issue of quantity--like buying 8 oz of nuts at Vons, but at Costco there is nothing smaller than 5lbs (if that example isn't perfect, please just accept the comparison), but on an even more significant scale.

I saw a news story on milk dumping and it was because they couldn't ramp up repackage the industrial packaging size (huge gallons for restaurants, bakers, etc) to the grocery store sizes, nor get the additional trucks and drivers to redistribute even if they could repackage...

The military has to consider such logistical supply issues, and I thing they would be the only ones able to quickly mobilize to store (military reefers and refrigerator trucks) and transport product if civilian assets can't.

But it may be that even the military has privatized enough of their food service logistics that it isn't possible. Hopefully, someone on the task force is looking at these issues.

[tuxbailey]

what, from your perspective, will determine when you wont do that any longer?

My parents are in their 70s. I recognize that we can't keep them inside until a vaccine is available (who knows when.) So I will advise them to wear masks and be cautious when they go out in the future. Same for me when I go to the stores.

[jimcav]

So almost 2/3rds of these homes have had the virus, thats a pretty big failure one have to say if those were the ppl we were going to protect the most ;/

That was my initial concern over the policy there. From reading the all data being analyzed from other countries, I couldn't fathom how the policy in Sweden was thought to really protect the vulnerable. I think I posted in another (closed) thread about a study that showed that IF you had one group that you allowed to have some work/mobility, it could only be 20-69 ages, but you had to restrict 0-20 and 70+ ages. That wasn't the "best" option, the best was to do full stay at home, but anyway, hopefully they will take action to protect the remaining 1/3 of such nursing/retirement type homes.

[texbike]

I'm not sure if this was already posted in the old thread, but here's an interesting map of Covid impacts across the US -

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?covid=1&lat=30.4&lon=-97.73&cm_ven=covid-map .

It's focused on Travis County in Texas (Austin) when you first open it, but you can expand it out to view the entire US.

The rate of infections in Shreveport, LA compared to their population size was surprising to me.

Texbike

[verticaldoug]

Here in Stockholm new cases has started to increase a little again after beeing flat for some time.

1192 deaths confirmed total in stockholm so more than half of swedens total.
Out of these ppl 521 have been tested possitive at an elderly home and then passed on.

Out of 313 homes for the elderly in stockholm as many as 197 of them have had at least someone diagnosed with covid-19.

So almost 2/3rds of these homes have had the virus, thats a pretty big failure one have to say if those were the ppl we were going to protect the most ;/

Given the ratio of fatalities to infected (tested) it seems Stockholm has a serious testing deficiency. Please correct me is this is untrue?

[verticaldoug]

i dont know what the solution is, but this is incredibly sad and disturbing.

it's also a failure of government at a very fundamental level as i see it.

we have food, we have hungry people who cant afford food. we have to fix this.

i wonder if any lessons at all will be learned by this?

It's a by-product of efficiency and consolidation. When everything works as designed, huge volumes are efficiently handled. If manual intervention is ever needed on the fly to course correct, the whole system shuts down.

Finance is the same. If you every had to manual intervene in some of these markets, you'll collapse.

We have highly efficient but not necessarily robust systems

[tuscanyswe]

Given the ratio of fatalities to infected (tested) it seems Stockholm has a serious testing deficiency. Please correct me is this is untrue?

That is correct. They realized very early that they would not be able to put out a substantial testing regime from the get go so they choose testing strategy with this in mind. Its beeing ramped up tho. I believe to 100.000 a week if im not misstaken, cant recall the timeline tho.

So far we have almost exclusively tested very ill ppl and healthcare personal and now we are moving those parameters a little. they believe that this is part of the reason they now see an increase in cases due to different groups are now beeing tested but they dont think that explains all of the rise the last days.

[verticaldoug]

That is correct. They realized very early that they would not be able to put out a substantial testing regime from the get go so they choose testing strategy with this in mind. Its beeing ramped up tho. I believe to 100.000 a week if im not misstaken, cant recall the timeline tho.

So far we have almost exclusively tested very ill ppl and healthcare personal and now we are moving those parameters a little. they believe that this is part of the reason they now see an increase in cases due to different groups are now beeing tested but they dont think that explains all of the rise the last days.

The rise is probably the inevitable spread of the illness on its way to herd immunity... It may work out for the people of Stockholm, but the people are really guinea pigs here. I expect it in Las Vegas, not in Sweden.

[Andy sti]

Well Gov. Brown is allowing elective surgeries to begin after May 1. Obviously precautions will continue to be in place but this is great news. I'm in surgery today and plans are being made about how to best "open" the schedule back up and work through the backlog.

Again OR is not NY. We have only had 70 positives in our county. Opening up the hospitals is huge for us. Our clinic schedule will slowly improve and we can return to office based procedures too.

[pbarry]

Good use of covid time. :)

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/24/843493304/long-lost-u-s-military-satellite-found-by-amateur-radio-operator

[dustyrider]

It's a starkly different landscape for me on the west side of the rockies. Very few people are wearing masks anymore, plenty of people gathering in groups, loads of places are gearing up for opening to customers, some places opened today, and I believe you can get your haircut and a tatoo on May 1st. For lack of a better word, it will be interesting to see where this leads. I do find it odd that Colorado has seemed to avoid any of the spotlight/scrutiny in regards to opening so soon that places like Georgia or Las Vegas seem to be facing.

[tuscanyswe]

The rise is probably the inevitable spread of the illness on its way to herd immunity... It may work out for the people of Stockholm, but the people are really guinea pigs here. I expect it in Las Vegas, not in Sweden.

You cant really compare las vegas to Sweden / stockholm. I dont know if its the media or that most just dont seem to want to take in the actual facts.

The healthcare authorities here in Sweden think that we have the best strategy we could have had for our circumstances and it may still turn out to be true. They believe that our strategy of social distancing is on par with the rest of the worlds total shut down versions but still making it easier to keep society going and beeing able to do so for much longer since the restrictions still offer the citizens a somewhat normal life. The data do seem to somewhat support that. They realized early that you cant shut down everything and keep it like that for a year or more, its just doesent work. This is what most other nations are now realizing as well after just weeks or maybe almost 2 months.


This could especially be true if one look at the larger picture as in whats going on in the world and what will happen in many other places as the west rolls down its economics and normal way of life. Ppl will die from that to no doubt. I cant say if more or less than from covid but my ignorant guess will be more, perhaps a lot more. They just wont be in the west to the same extent.

The authorities still do not believe that they could have had a better strategy other than to somehow stop it from spreading to the elderly homes. But given how many asymptomatic cases there are its possible without immensly bigger testing capabilities it would not have been possible to keep the spread out of these homes regardless. One cant really know for sure i guess.

Vegas seem to me to be wanting to opening up everything regardless of fact n reason and have everything back to normal for the sake of the local economy with little or no regulations, no? Or thats at least the mayors wishes a person with no medical education or training which seem to have little understanding of the virus. Is this not correct? (edited to mayor from governor as this was pointed out).

Sweden is not run by politicians at all now. Its rules regarding covid are being set by healthcare professionals who have worked their whole careers with this and only this. They are not politicly nor economicly motivated. They do however see a problem with the world economy and focus on this virus alone as this will bring death and hunger and dictatorships across the globe in the absence of normal life, thats their reason for wanting to keep things going as best we can.

They think this is the best road for sweden and the globe. Its pretty swedish in this regard imo. Its just unorthodox and may or may not turn out to be correct.

[BobbyJones]

In the same vein--a paean to the restaurant Prune and the old East Village that spawned it.

Thirty five years in one restaurant--"the non-profit sector" as she jokes--and to have it more or less evaporate:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Excellent article. Thank you for that.

[Hellgate]

Here's a good read on the consequences Denver suffered in 1918 by opening back up too soon. Watch Atlanta in 14 days.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/opinions/denver-1918-lesson-avlon/index.html

[2LeftCleats]

Japan is suffering after prematurely reopening their northern island.

[SoCalSteve]

From what I understand most non medical grade masks aren't for protecting the wearer. They are intended to minimize the droplets we exhale or cough or sneeze out, protecting others.

I may be wrong on this but it's my understanding of why we are being encouraged to wear masks.

You are 100% correct. An order went out recently that when you go into an essential business ( all non-essential businesses are shut down ) you are required to wear a mask or not be allowed in. This is for all of Los Angeles.

Our garment industry started making fabric masks and now people are selling them on street corners.

[tuxbailey]

Excellent article. Thank you for that.

Seconded.

[tuscanyswe]

Seconded.

3rd

[Monsieur Toast]

You cant really compare las vegas to Sweden / stockholm.

Vegas seem to me to be wanting to opening up everything regardless of fact n reason and have everything back to normal for the sake of the local economy with little or no regulations, no? This all regulated and determined by a governor with no medical education or training which seem to have little understanding of the virus. Is this not correct?

Uhm, no. That's not correct. Here in Nevada Governor Sisolak and casino unions are opposed to opening too soon and I would expect an extension of the shelter in place soon. Sisolak has slammed mayor Carolyn Goodman of Vegas after her recent round of national and local interviews.

Once again, Mayor Carolyn Goodman of Las Vegas is the one making the news lately and has nothing to do with actual Nevada state policy. She's a total hack, wife of a mobster lawyer, no brain dipshiiiii. Makes for great media, not reality. Her husband, Oscar Goodman, was mayor of Las Vegas for three terms in a row before she took his place. Vegas is stupid ... but also pays for the entire state. So whatcha gonna do?

[tuscanyswe]

Uhm, no. That's not correct. Here in Nevada Governor Sisolak and casino unions are opposed to opening too soon and I would expect an extension of the shelter in place soon. Sisolak has slammed mayor Carolyn Goodman of Vegas after her recent round of national and local interviews.

Once again, Mayor Carolyn Goodman of Las Vegas is the one making the news lately and has nothing to do with actual Nevada state policy. She's a total hack, wife of a mobster lawyer, no brain dipshiiiii. Makes for great media, not reality. Her husband, Oscar Goodman, was mayor of Las Vegas for three terms in a row before she took his place. Vegas is stupid ... but also pays for the entire state. So whatcha gonna do?

Ah yes sorry about that, mixed the titles up between governor n mayor.

[cdimattio]

Much has been said about Darwinism and the lack of sophistication of those protesting continued draconian lockdowns but nobody is doing a very good job of explaining the strategy why a lockdown would not be immediately softened after a significant downward trajectory of covid cases.

1. A lockdown does not prevent anything, it merely flattens the curve and delays the spread so modern medical care is not overwhelmed. You can flatten the curve but a resurgence of the virus is inevitable.

2. Continued economic malaise will have repercussions with widespread financial issues, postponed personal health, drug use, suicide, domestic battery and a host of other issues which may have implications larger than the virus itself.

3. Any Contact tracing strategy would seem to have an improbable chance of success. With so many asymptomatic carriers any meaningful testing program would seem to have impossible challenges related to the requirement for a magnitude of testing that might not ever be achieved. Are we hiring 500K contact tracers and ready to perform a million tests per day? And while there is much talk of a vaccine, there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine in one year or ten years.

4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA? Multiple successive lockdowns? Pray for a vaccine or more effective treatment solutions?

[joosttx]

Much has been said about Darwinism and the lack of sophistication of those protesting continued draconian lockdowns but nobody is doing a very good job of explaining the strategy why a lockdown would not be immediately softened after a significant downward trajectory of covid cases.

1. A lockdown does not prevent anything, it merely flattens the curve and delays the spread so modern medical care is not overwhelmed. You can flatten the curve but a resurgence of the virus is inevitable.

2. Continued economic malaise will have repercussions with widespread financial issues, postponed personal health, drug use, suicide, domestic battery and a host of other issues which may have implications larger than the virus itself.

3. Any Contact tracing strategy would seem to have an improbable chance of success. With so many asymptomatic carriers any meaningful testing program would seem to have impossible challenges related to the requirement for a magnitude of testing that might not ever be achieved. Are we hiring 500K contact tracers and ready to perform a million tests per day? And while there is much talk of a vaccine, there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine in one year or ten years.

4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA? Multiple successive lockdowns? Pray for a vaccine or more effective treatment solutions?

Trying to understand premise no. 1. It doesn't prevent anything but flatten the curve. What does flattening the curve prevent? To be honest we don't know what it prevented because we never experienced something that not flattening the curve would of caused. I prefer not to experience that opposed to everything outlined in no 2 which would of been experience even so if flatten the curve was not done. Can you imagine life being normal if hospital were over run and people were forced to work while fearing for their safety? Imagine the chaos?

[RyanH]

Once again, Mayor Carolyn Goodman of Las Vegas is the one making the news lately and has nothing to do with actual Nevada state policy. She's a total...

Easy there, those types of comments will result in a timeout for us or you.

[paredown]

Much has been said about Darwinism and the lack of sophistication of those protesting continued draconian lockdowns but nobody is doing a very good job of explaining the strategy why a lockdown would not be immediately softened after a significant downward trajectory of covid cases.

1. A lockdown does not prevent anything, it merely flattens the curve and delays the spread so modern medical care is not overwhelmed. You can flatten the curve but a resurgence of the virus is inevitable.

2. Continued economic malaise will have repercussions with widespread financial issues, postponed personal health, drug use, suicide, domestic battery and a host of other issues which may have implications larger than the virus itself.

3. Any Contact tracing strategy would seem to have an improbable chance of success. With so many asymptomatic carriers any meaningful testing program would seem to have impossible challenges related to the requirement for a magnitude of testing that might not ever be achieved. Are we hiring 500K contact tracers and ready to perform a million tests per day? And while there is much talk of a vaccine, there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine in one year or ten years.

4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA? Multiple successive lockdowns? Pray for a vaccine or more effective treatment solutions?

Presumably--the side benefit of flattening as many have said is that it buys time for direct experience with the infection and best treatment methods AND it also buys time for the hard science about potential Vaccines or other potential treatment protocols that can be applied.

Lots of evidence suggesting that the doctors in the front lines are already trying different methods like proning or using C-Pap machines and limiting intubation if they can--and lots of trials going on about potential treatments including vaccines and anti-malarials.

Fingers crossed--they will get better at this if they can slow the spread enough so that full information sharing can take place, but from all the stories there is a lot of information being shared already.

Second--testing---antibody testing will help--and there are some signs this may lead to treatment options with plasma (and if we have overwhelmed the system, it will only be alligator wrestling, not swamp draining).

Contact tracing--we haven't really done that yet--but the problem I can see is that we are unwilling to round up infected people, moving them out of their households as China did--so we probably need better treatment options before this is anywhere close to under control. There was a piece today citing the Italian experience and how they now have a difficult problem of infected households--and what do you do about that?

I think the problem with raising the economic catastrophe issue is that it shifts the focus from the immediate problem--keeping as many people alive as possible, and causes even more worry for already overloaded brains. We simply don't have tools in the tool kit of local, State or Federal government to really deal with the economic fallout--and opening too soon is likely to cause further outbreaks which will cause even more economic devastation that staying shut down.

The critical path issue to me now seems to be--how do we keep people housed and fed while they are locked down?--and we will have to do something extraordinary to help people now (one plan is for a debt moratorium for everyone). And then we will need something even more extraordinary when the pandemic is under control.

But I don't think this is unprecedented in a way--look at what the US was able to do at the end of WW II--one day, war economy; next day peace economy with the GI Bill and a host of other programs.

[XXtwindad]

[QUOTE=cdimattio;2704979]Much has been said about Darwinism and the lack of sophistication of those protesting continued draconian lockdowns but nobody is doing a very good job of explaining the strategy why a lockdown would not be immediately softened after a significant downward trajectory of covid cases.

1. A lockdown does not prevent anything, it merely flattens the curve and delays the spread so modern medical care is not overwhelmed. You can flatten the curve but a resurgence of the virus is inevitable.

2. Continued economic malaise will have repercussions with widespread financial issues, postponed personal health, drug use, suicide, domestic battery and a host of other issues which may have implications larger than the virus itself.

3. Any Contact tracing strategy would seem to have an improbable chance of success. With so many asymptomatic carriers any meaningful testing program would seem to have impossible challenges related to the requirement for a magnitude of testing that might not ever be achieved. Are we hiring 500K contact tracers and ready to perform a million tests per day? And while there is much talk of a vaccine, there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine in one year or ten years.

4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA

Interesting point.

A recent NYT article concluded that a woman died on Feb 6th in San Jose from COVID 19. (her tissue was analyzed after her death)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/santa-clara-county-coronavirus-death.html

If that was the case, since the virus takes awhile to manifest, she had probably contacted the virus sometime in January. Which means that the virus has been present longer and the amount of people infected is higher than previously thought. Subsequently, that would also mean the death rate from the virus is lower than previously estimated.

So, perhaps there is something to glean from Sweden's model of a "tiered" SIP, with the most vulnerable continuing to quarantine while those ostensibly healthier venture out.

One mitigating factor is the high rate of obesity and general lack of fitness here in the U.S. Even among the young. That puts people in the high "risk" category regardless of age. I don't know how that correlates in Sweden. I assume people there are generally healthier.

[tuxbailey]

Trying to understand premise no. 1. It doesn't prevent anything but flatten the curve. What does flattening the curve prevent? To be honest we don't know what it prevented because we never experienced something that not flattening the curve would of caused. I prefer not to experience that opposed to everything outlined in no 2 which would of been experience even so if flatten the curve was not done. Can you imagine life being normal if hospital were over run and people were forced to work while fearing for their safety? Imagine the chaos?

I think if we don't flatten the curve we could see the Italian situation in many parts in the US. I don't think people can really stomach that.

[johnmdesigner]

In the same vein--a paean to the restaurant Prune and the old East Village that spawned it.

Thirty five years in one restaurant--"the non-profit sector" as she jokes--and to have it more or less evaporate:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

From a financial point of view many of these restaurants will not survive this.
NYC restaurants are notoriously small. If you have 20 tables now and you eliminate 10 to allow for distance between the diners there is no way in hell you can run a business and pay your bills.
The French are predicting that 40% of the restaurants in the country will not reopen.

[AngryScientist]

From a financial point of view many of these restaurants will not survive this.
NYC restaurants are notoriously small. If you have 20 tables now and you eliminate 10 to allow for distance between the diners there is no way in hell you can run a business and pay your bills.
.

unless this happens to everyone and then the rents have to go down, right?

i think things in the big expensive cities like NYC are about to change in a major way once we start to pop out of this.

this is going to be, if nothing else, very interesting to see unfold.

[XXtwindad]

unless this happens to everyone and then the rents have to go down, right?

i think things in the big expensive cities like NYC are about to change in a major way once we start to pop out of this.

this is going to be, if nothing else, very interesting to see unfold.

Yes. That will be an interesting factor. I have two clients that work in tech that are seriously considering leaving San Francisco and working remotely. Rents will definitely be affected. I have to think that’s a good thing. (Unless you own property, of course.)

[jimcav]

Much has been said about Darwinism and the lack of sophistication of those protesting continued draconian lockdowns but nobody is doing a very good job of explaining the strategy why a lockdown would not be immediately softened after a significant downward trajectory of covid cases.

1. A lockdown does not prevent anything, it merely flattens the curve and delays the spread so modern medical care is not overwhelmed. You can flatten the curve but a resurgence of the virus is inevitable.

2. Continued economic malaise will have repercussions with widespread financial issues, postponed personal health, drug use, suicide, domestic battery and a host of other issues which may have implications larger than the virus itself.

3. Any Contact tracing strategy would seem to have an improbable chance of success. With so many asymptomatic carriers any meaningful testing program would seem to have impossible challenges related to the requirement for a magnitude of testing that might not ever be achieved. Are we hiring 500K contact tracers and ready to perform a million tests per day? And while there is much talk of a vaccine, there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine in one year or ten years.

4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA? Multiple successive lockdowns? Pray for a vaccine or more effective treatment solutions?

There is plenty of data from other countries, and even a few states in the USA that stay at home doesn't just 'flatten the curve', it can bring the transmission chain low enough that THEN you get to the point where you CAN use testing and contract tracing.

The USA issue is we haven't been able to get validated, reliable tests and supplies in the sufficient quantity needed, YET. We will. Here in CA we've implemented 'stay at home' and limited areas with potential contact (beaches, trails in most areas) to the point that we haven't even truly peaked, spread is slow, but still happening (yesterday was the highest daily deaths yet, at 107 I think).

The data is there for anyone to review on what happens as COVID-19 is allowed to spread. We aren't inventing that wheel. It is true there MAY be really significant downstream effects to 'stay at home' etc, but what happens when those measures aren't taken, or when they are lifted too soon, has already been abundantly proven in multiple areas. Why we (USA) would need to use the same magical thinking on stopping mitigation and act like the USA won't see the resurgence of cases and deaths, as other nations have, that is foolish and exactly the type of attitude (acting like COVID wouldn't happen here as it did in China, or Italy) that made this the mess it is.

Congress needs to keep taking action(s) to deal with the fallout of COVID-9, which includes the effects to workers, business, bonds, loans, etc. The clearer the messaging is on the status of tests, supplies, tracers, etc and with maximal production efforts on those test/isolate/trace efforts, the more people will be able to see the point to, and commit to, continued mitigation; and the sooner we get to the point of safely renewing activity.

[tuscanyswe]

Interesting point.

A recent NYT article concluded that a woman died on Feb 6th in San Jose from COVID 19. (her tissue was analyzed after her death)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/santa-clara-county-coronavirus-death.html

If that was the case, since the virus takes awhile to manifest, she had probably contacted the virus sometime in January. Which means that the virus has been present longer and the amount of people infected is higher than previously thought. Subsequently, that would also mean the death rate from the virus is lower than previously estimated.

So, perhaps there is something to glean from Sweden's model of a "tiered" SIP, with the most vulnerable continuing to quarantine while those ostensibly healthier venture out.

One mitigating factor is the high rate of obesity and general lack of fitness here in the U.S. Even among the young. That puts people in the high "risk" category regardless of age. I don't know how that correlates in Sweden. I assume people there are generally healthier.

I would think so yes. It was said earlier in "this" thread that sweden have half of the obesity compared to USA for instance and likely this would hold true for many of the accompanied issues.

[joosttx]

I think if we don't flatten the curve we could see the Italian situation in many parts in the US. I don't think people can really stomach that.

This is my point because we flatten the curve we made it less worse than it was. I’m not saying it is good right now but without FTC we would experience all things we are experiencing now and worse. FTC has worked too well and the virus isn’t deadly enough to appreciate what has been achieved and what could of been.

[paredown]

I would think so yes. It was said earlier in "this" thread that sweden have half of the obesity compared to USA for instance and likely this would hold true for many of the accompanied issues.

Not to trade in cliches (too much), but you also have more social cohesion, less "yahooism", more respect for the law (and social norms)--generally a more responsible citizenry.

I think Euros have a better understanding of the reciprocity of "rights" and "responsibilities" (or duties)--while Americans tend to talk only about the first.

So you can use advisories--but anyone who saw the New Yorkers flocking to the parks after the advisories, or the Floridians flocking to the beaches know that Americans are an unruly lot--they need the Hobbesian policeman saying "STOP".

[onsight512]

This is my point because we flatten the curve we made it less worse than it was. I’m not saying it is good right now but without FTC we would experience all things we are experiencing now and worse. FTC has worked too well and the virus isn’t deadly enough to appreciate what has been achieved and what could of been.

^^^ exactly this ^^^

[tuscanyswe]

Not to trade in cliches (too much), but you also have more social cohesion, less "yahooism", more respect for the law (and social norms)--generally a more responsible citizenry.

I think Euros have a better understanding of the reciprocity of "rights" and "responsibilities" (or duties)--while Americans tend to talk only about the first.

So you can use advisories--but anyone who saw the New Yorkers flocking to the parks after the advisories, or the Floridians flocking to the beaches know that Americans are an unruly lot--they need the Hobbesian policeman saying "STOP".

Yes i think this is also a fair assesment.
But even here its noticable, as time goes by ppl seem to take less precautions are less concearned about following the restrictions to the letter. Has me a bit worried but we will see.

[AngryScientist]

Updates from the front lines:

Today i switched from 2min plank every hour of WFH to 25 push-ups/hour

Also, i now have a beard, and a pretty sweet mohawk.

i am surprisingly really pleased with the mohawk.

[weisan]

i am surprisingly really pleased with the mohawk.


https://i.imgflip.com/xn0nw.jpg

Angry pal, you know the forum rule and you flaunt it!!!

And please include a picture of your 6-pack.

[fiamme red]

Updates from the front lines:

Today i switched from 2min plank every hour of WFH to 25 push-ups/hour

Also, i now have a beard, and a pretty sweet mohawk.

i am surprisingly really pleased with the mohawk.It's not easy to fit a helmet over a mohawk. :)

https://live.staticflickr.com/4064/4627678338_66d2164f44_b.jpg

[XXtwindad]

Updates from the front lines:

Today i switched from 2min plank every hour of WFH to 25 push-ups/hour

Also, i now have a beard, and a pretty sweet mohawk.

i am surprisingly really pleased with the mohawk.

This is all talk without the pics!

On my end, I’m growing the fro out, and am sporting the beginnings of a “hipster stache.” Eventually, Im going to cut off some blue jeans, and go for a ride. My COVID ode to “breaking away.”

Everyone that sees it thinks it looks ridiculous. But they don’t understand. I am now finally able to legally ride a Speedvagen.

[onsight512]

A few days ago I installed a pull-up bar in the garage. Yesterday I added a sheave to the rafters for a counterweight bag for my wife & kids. Climbing harness attaches to the line that the bag(s) is on.
Now everyone's doing pull-ups. :banana:

[johnmdesigner]

unless this happens to everyone and then the rents have to go down, right?

i think things in the big expensive cities like NYC are about to change in a major way once we start to pop out of this.

this is going to be, if nothing else, very interesting to see unfold.

Landlords have been sitting on a ton of vacant commercial space long before this.

Commercial rents have steadily climbed over the years and have done so through natural and man-made disasters. This one is no different.
Unless some major legal changes are made to put a cap on how long a landlord may keep a commercial space vacant it's going to be business as usual.
Just going to be more Chipolte's and bad salad bars.

[paredown]

Landlords have been sitting on a ton of vacant commercial space long before this.

Commercial rents have steadily climbed over the years and have done so through natural and man-made disasters. This one is no different.
Unless some major legal changes are made to put a cap on how long a landlord may keep a commercial space vacant it's going to be business as usual.
Just going to be more Chipolte's and bad salad bars.
The continued "mall-ification" of New York...

[XXtwindad]

[QUOTE=cdimattio;2704979]Much has been said about Darwinism and the lack of sophistication of those protesting continued draconian lockdowns but nobody is doing a very good job of explaining the strategy why a lockdown would not be immediately softened after a significant downward trajectory of covid cases.

1. A lockdown does not prevent anything, it merely flattens the curve and delays the spread so modern medical care is not overwhelmed. You can flatten the curve but a resurgence of the virus is inevitable.

2. Continued economic malaise will have repercussions with widespread financial issues, postponed personal health, drug use, suicide, domestic battery and a host of other issues which may have implications larger than the virus itself.

3. Any Contact tracing strategy would seem to have an improbable chance of success. With so many asymptomatic carriers any meaningful testing program would seem to have impossible challenges related to the requirement for a magnitude of testing that might not ever be achieved. Are we hiring 500K contact tracers and ready to perform a million tests per day? And while there is much talk of a vaccine, there is no guarantee of an effective vaccine in one year or ten years.

4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA

Interesting point.

A recent NYT article concluded that a woman died on Feb 6th in San Jose from COVID 19. (her tissue was analyzed after her death)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/santa-clara-county-coronavirus-death.html

If that was the case, since the virus takes awhile to manifest, she had probably contacted the virus sometime in January. Which means that the virus has been present longer and the amount of people infected is higher than previously thought. Subsequently, that would also mean the death rate from the virus is lower than previously estimated.

So, perhaps there is something to glean from Sweden's model of a "tiered" SIP, with the most vulnerable continuing to quarantine while those ostensibly healthier venture out.

One mitigating factor is the high rate of obesity and general lack of fitness here in the U.S. Even among the young. That puts people in the high "risk" category regardless of age. I don't know how that correlates in Sweden. I assume people there are generally healthier.

Per my point:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html

Not talking about the “lack of fitness epidemic” in the context of the virus is totally irresponsible.

[johnmdesigner]

The continued "mall-ification" of New York...

We love to go out to restaurants but even before this we were priced out of the market.

$8.00 beer (not a great beer).
$10.00 Glass of so-so wine.
$12-15 Martini.

We were lucky in that we knew all the places with "Happy Hour" and could make an evening of it stopping at 2 or 3 places.
Pretty sure that is all going to go away. Luckily my wife is a great cook.

[BobbyJones]

Landlords have been sitting on a ton of vacant commercial space long before this.

Commercial rents have steadily climbed over the years and have done so through natural and man-made disasters. This one is no different.
Unless some major legal changes are made to put a cap on how long a landlord may keep a commercial space vacant it's going to be business as usual.
Just going to be more Chipolte's and bad salad bars.


To quote something from the NYT article comments:

"People get what they deserve. Whether they realize it or not is a different matter."




We love to go out to restaurants but even before this we were priced out of the market.

$8.00 beer (not a great beer).
$10.00 Glass of so-so wine.
$12-15 Martini.

We were lucky in that we knew all the places with "Happy Hour" and could make an evening of it stopping at 2 or 3 places.
Pretty sure that is all going to go away. Luckily my wife is a great cook.


And agree with this. It's been a combination of hit / or miss with quality when dining out and the expense really makes it sting when something isn't great. Much like everything else, maybe this will weed out more subpar operations than stellar ones.

[AngryScientist]

damn, happy hour in the city sounds good right about now.

those 30 dollar martinis go down easier on someone else's corporate card too, trust me :)

[AngryScientist]

Landlords have been sitting on a ton of vacant commercial space long before this.


also, i've never understood the economics of this, can someone explain?

the obvious answer to me is to lower the rent until someone bites because any rent coming in is better than no rent, however, in NYC, and here in the close burbs, that is not the reality - what is happening?

[paredown]

damn, happy hour in the city sounds good right about now.

those 30 dollar martinis go down easier on someone else's corporate card too, trust me :)

Yep--we went to a Christmas party with folks that we knew after they finished the mall construction at World Trade--it was like getting the keys to the candy store...

[fiamme red]

Landlords have been sitting on a ton of vacant commercial space long before this.

Commercial rents have steadily climbed over the years and have done so through natural and man-made disasters. This one is no different.
Unless some major legal changes are made to put a cap on how long a landlord may keep a commercial space vacant it's going to be business as usual.
Just going to be more Chipolte's and bad salad bars.My local bike shop had their rent doubled by the landlord in 2015. Of course they had to close up. The space still stands empty. Next door was a hardware store (same landlord), and it's been vacant since 2016.

Lots of art galleries have sprouted up in my neighborhood in the most unlikely places (e.g., across the street from NYCHA projects). They always seem to be empty.

[AngryScientist]

to go back to what John said though, i dont believe this is like other natural (or otherwise) disasters. this will cut much deeper than anything we have seen in the recent past, i'm convinced.

i remain optimistic there will be some positive change.

i may be wrong, but i hope i'm right.

[Tony T]

also, i've never understood the economics of this, can someone explain?

the obvious answer to me is to lower the rent until someone bites because any rent coming in is better than no rent, however, in NYC, and here in the close burbs, that is not the reality - what is happening?

The tax benefits for building new high rises outweigh the loss of rent in the short term, even if it takes years. The new Skyline in Manhattan is really ugly.
One in Four of New York’s New Luxury Apartments Is Unsold
A quarter of the new condos built since 2013 in New York City have not yet found buyers, according to a new analysis of closed sales. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/realestate/new-development-new-york.html)

[verticaldoug]

[QUOTE=cdimattio;2704979]


4. While everyone has been quick to negatively judge the Sweden model it is very easy to understand. Hospitals were seemingly not overwhelmed and any evaluation of success of the Sweden model is many months away because the USA lockdown strategy may have only delayed rather than prevented any outcomes.

Masks and social distancing are the new normal for the world. We can cast stones but Sweden seems to have a plan. What is the post lockdown plan in the USA



So, perhaps there is something to glean from Sweden's model of a "tiered" SIP, with the most vulnerable continuing to quarantine while those ostensibly healthier venture out.

One mitigating factor is the high rate of obesity and general lack of fitness here in the U.S. Even among the young. That puts people in the high "risk" category regardless of age. I don't know how that correlates in Sweden. I assume people there are generally healthier.

Sweden has a population of 10,000,000 and is forecasting 10,000 fatalities.
NYC has population of 8.5mm and is already >10,000 fatalities with many more in ICU so final count is still another 50% higher. That is with the optimistic data from the random serology test saying 20% infected. So only another 40%+ to go for herd immunity.


Is 45,000 an acceptable number for NYC? Is the high mortality is really about health, but unhealthy lifestyle tend more towards the lower incomes. So is this another symptom of the gross inequality in America (NYC) ?

I saw Gary Cohen on CNBC today given an interview from his home(Hamptons). He is concerned that people may be reluctant to go back to work because they get more money from the government($1200) than what they earned working.
If a person is earning less than 1200 / month working full time, and you are okay with that, then you Mr. Cohen are out of touch....

[fiamme red]

'It's alarming' how hard Nebraska's rural areas are hit by coronavirus, UNMC expert says: https://www.omaha.com/news/state_and_regional/its-alarming-how-hard-nebraskas-rural-areas-are-hit-by-coronavirus-unmc-expert-says/article_28053063-19fa-5a4e-a846-cdb7fbef0c0e.html.

...Many in rural Nebraska work side by side in large food processing and meatpacking centers. Their work is seen as part of an essential industry, and it’s not a job that lends itself to telecommuting.

And it only takes one infection in a small, close-knit community to send COVID-19 cases spiking through the roof.

It all combines to help explain why Hall, Dawson and Dakota Counties have emerged as the epicenter of Nebraska’s COVID-19 pandemic...

[AngryScientist]

The tax benefits for building new high rises outweigh the loss of rent in the short term, even if it takes years. The new Skyline in Manhattan is really ugly.
One in Four of New York’s New Luxury Apartments Is Unsold
A quarter of the new condos built since 2013 in New York City have not yet found buyers, according to a new analysis of closed sales. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/realestate/new-development-new-york.html)

interesting, thanks.

i was checking out the skyline this weekend actually

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GY8xqAf5daw/Xp4WmyBZxnI/AAAAAAAADr0/9G4EcgbWTgI_gubq9PwBl0ixHrKjw3SaQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1200/IMG_5334.jpg

[XXtwindad]

[QUOTE=XXtwindad;2705010]

Sweden has a population of 10,000,000 and is forecasting 10,000 fatalities.
NYC has population of 8.5mm and is already >10,000 fatalities with many more in ICU so final count is still another 50% higher. That is with the optimistic data from the random serology test saying 20% infected. So only another 40%+ to go for herd immunity.

Then is 45,000 an acceptable number for NYC? Is the high mortality is really about health, but unhealthy lifestyle tend more tot the lower incomes. So is this another symptom of the gross inequality in America (NYC) ?

Yes. One is inextricably linked to the other. So many broken things to fix.

[AngryScientist]

you guys need to learn how to copy quotes.

[verticaldoug]

The tax benefits for building new high rises outweigh the loss of rent in the short term, even if it takes years. The new Skyline in Manhattan is really ugly.
One in Four of New York’s New Luxury Apartments Is Unsold
A quarter of the new condos built since 2013 in New York City have not yet found buyers, according to a new analysis of closed sales. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/realestate/new-development-new-york.html)

There are a few things happening. Previously, if you could pay cash for a condo in the name of a paper company, so Manhattan real estate was the destination of choice for a lot of ill gotten wealth. The law changed, and now the UBO (ultimate beneficial owner) of the company must be disclosed. This makes NYC less appealing to park ill gotten funds.

There was a series of articles in the NYTimes about the Time Warner Towers caste of crooked buyers. Towers of secrecy ..https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/shell-company-towers-of-secrecy-real-estate It's a fun read. I think they did a youtube series too.

Its not coming back.

[skitlets]

Re vacant leases, business leases also tend to run for 10+ year terms. It's better to sit on a vacant lot for a few years until they can then lock in Chipotle for $$$. Vacant/abandoned lot taxes are meant to counteract this, but they're easy to avoid and still set too low.

[RyanH]

I saw Gary Cohen on CNBC today given an interview from his home(Hamptons). He is concerned that people may be reluctant to go back to work because they get more money from the government($1200) than what they earned working.
If a person is earning less than 1200 / month working full time, and you are okay with that, then you Mr. Cohen are out of touch....

I don't know what the numbers are for NY but in CA unemployment is paying $1050 per week under the new package. We're having trouble hiring people. So, yes, it's a problem.

[bward1028]

California is paying UP TO $1050/week. That is far from everyone in california getting over a thousand bucks a week.

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) determines your weekly benefit amount by dividing your earnings for the highest paid quarter of the base period by 26, up to a maximum of $450 per week. Benefits are available for up to 26 weeks.

[JStonebarger]

I don't know what the numbers are for NY but in CA unemployment is paying $1050 per week under the new package. We're having trouble hiring people. So, yes, it's a problem.

Does everyone on unemployment there get the maximum amount? Sweet!

Regardless, this is a problem for whom, exactly? If you really need to hire now maybe you should pay $30/hour and call it hazard pay?

[rallizes]

people reluctant about returning to work because whole potential death thing maybe

who knows

[Spdntrxi]

Does everyone on unemployment there get the maximum amount? Sweet!

Regardless, this is a problem for whom, exactly? If you really need to hire now maybe you should pay $30/hour and call it hazard pay?

just keep printing right.. do you understand basic Econ ? I know you are not serious.;)

[JStonebarger]

people reluctant about returning to work because whole potential death thing maybe

who knows

Laws are changing right now to exempt employers from any liability involved in reopening. Why would we workers worry? (I wonder, since that's usually covered by Workman's Comp, if the changes are to exempt criminal negligence? AKA knowingly endangering employees?)

[ColonelJLloyd]

you guys need to learn how to copy quotes.

Yeah, I don't get what the issue is. Mobile devices and Tapatalk?

[RyanH]

California is paying UP TO $1050/week. That is far from everyone in california getting over a thousand bucks a week.

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) determines your weekly benefit amount by dividing your earnings for the highest paid quarter of the base period by 26, up to a maximum of $450 per week. Benefits are available for up to 26 weeks.Run the numbers on their site. An employee making $16 an hour makes $2733 a month and is eligible for $320/wk normally. Now they can make $920/wk or $3986 per month.

So, as I said, it's a problem.

[JStonebarger]

Run the numbers on their site. An employee making $16 an hour makes $2733 a month and is eligible for $320/wk normally. Now they can make $920/wk or $3986 per month.

So, as I said, it's a problem.

A) That extra $600/week is only through July (I don't know why), and
B) Again, a problem for whom?

[Spdntrxi]

A) That extra $600/week is only through July (I don't know why), and
B) Again, a problem for whom?

you dont know why? really. I might get extended in some form or another but surely you know why there is a time limit ?

[JStonebarger]

you dont know why? really. I might get extended in some form or another but surely you know why there is a time limit ?

I didn't follow it enough to know why the $600/week happened at all, or why it ends August 1. If it's that obvious, explain it to me in 20 words or less.

My point was more that it isn't going to last forever.

My other point is that some people's "problems" are kind of like your "basic econ." They don't always apply to everyone.

[Spdntrxi]

I didn't follow it enough to know why the $600/week happened at all, or why it ends August 1. If it's that obvious, explain it to me in 20 words or less.

My point was more that it isn't going to last forever.

My other point is that some people's "problems" are kind of like your "basic econ." They don't always apply to everyone.

it's a google away (<20 letters):rolleyes:

[FlashUNC]

just keep printing right.. do you understand basic Econ ? I know you are not serious.;)

26 million people are unemployed, and inflation is about 2%.

Yeah, keep printing money unless you like shantytowns.

[BobbyJones]

Laws are changing right now to exempt employers from any liability involved in reopening. Why would we workers worry? (I wonder, since that's usually covered by Workman's Comp, if the changes are to exempt criminal negligence? AKA knowingly endangering employees?)

Employer liability was an area I brought up in a much earlier thread.... looks like we’ll have our first case with Smithfield, the Pork processor. They’re apparently getting sued. Don’t know the details besides a headline skim.

[FlashUNC]

Employer liability was an area I brought up in a much earlier thread.... looks like we’ll have our first case with Smithfield, the Pork processor. They’re apparently getting sued. Don’t know the details besides a headline skim.

Not much has changed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Jungle

[RyanH]

My other point is that some people's "problems" are kind of like your "basic econ." They don't always apply to everyone.

Until we convert to socialism it's a problem for every employer and indirectly the employees of those companies. It also impacts each and everyone of us when grocery stores can't stock adequately due to lack of staff or if the pharmacy can't deliver meds to the seniors because they can't hire drivers. But sure, it's not everyone's problem.

[palincss]

Yeah, I don't get what the issue is. Mobile devices and Tapatalk?

Well, perhaps the issue is when I selected "quote" to reply to your message what you see above is all that was quoted. The quote you quoted isn't there, and since I didn't open a new tab for this reply, your original message with the original quote is unavailable unless I back-arrow away from this, losing what I've typed. I'm using Firefox on a computer, not a mobile device.

[XXtwindad]

Well, perhaps the issue is when I selected "quote" to reply to your message what you see above is all that was quoted. The quote you quoted isn't there, and since I didn't open a new tab for this reply, your original message with the original quote is unavailable unless I back-arrow away from this, losing what I've typed. I'm using Firefox on a computer, not a mobile device.

I’d like to quote you on that.
Throwing in some ellipses .... just cuz Colonel Lloyd hates ‘em.

[ColonelJLloyd]

Well, perhaps the issue is when I selected "quote" to reply to your message what you see above is all that was quoted. The quote you quoted isn't there, and since I didn't open a new tab for this reply, your original message with the original quote is unavailable unless I back-arrow away from this, losing what I've typed. I'm using Firefox on a computer, not a mobile device.

I've had a few bourbons but I don't think I'd follow you regardless. FWIW, I didn't address you or your posts. I was simply curious, like AngryScientist, why broken quotes are prevalent. No need to explain further. It's unimportant.

I’d like to quote you on that.
Throwing in some ellipses .... just cuz Colonel Lloyd hates ‘em.

I don't. I wish they weren't used so often where a period should be but it is what it is I suppose.

[ciclista_tifoso]

.

Was this posted here already?

Snippet:

Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?

There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.

By David L. Katz

Dr. Katz is president of True Health Initiative and the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center.
...

I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.

...



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

[flying]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV8QtgDHvgw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

Not sure if posted already but found it interesting

[tuscanyswe]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV8QtgDHvgw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

Not sure if posted already but found it interesting

Yes interesting but its always better if those coming with the info does not have a self interest in the subject at hand imo. That does not mean what they are saying is not true ofc.

However isent those that are beeing tested in the USA thus far the ones with the biggest chance of actually having covid because they are sick enough or concearned enough to seak testing and / or have it granted for them because of symptoms? (Thats def the case in sweden at least).

And if also true for Usa which seems logical u cant really extrapolate from these testing numbers to a population without potentially drawing some very wrong conclusions.

That said i think he has a point regardless.

[Burnette]

.

Was this posted here already?

Snippet:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

I agree on this, I see it all around me locally and read about it on forums.

A local theater that was in business 29 years shuttered forever, countless restaurants that couldn't make take out work and family turn shops operating on the margins have announced this is the last straw and they are gone.

I frequent several forums and before COVID19 a common theme among them all was heavy debt, credit cards, homes, cars, student loans, many living paycheck to paycheck. Imagine those on the worst of shape before the crisis whi now have both patents unemployed with their jobs gone and not coming back. We know of a couple with a baby on the way, future mom listvhercjob and husband's job is iffy, they can't make it now on what he makes, it's going to get worse in a few months.

My wife works for a real estate firm that owns many rental properties, they are working with tenants as best they can but their bills for those properties don't stop. Both sides of that equation will suffer mightily going forward.

Getting back to work with proper protective procedures is the answer and though costly as that could be for some it has to happen.

I haven't stopped working since it started, I go in every day, been working overtime as a matter of fact, we have safety procedures in place.

Many local restaurants have found their way and are at least maintaining.

Life is about balance, it's hard choices and it's sacrifice. Any remedy for this is far off, as hard as we're working for a vaccine we should be working just as hard to fund a way to get everything going again. The current solution to this crisis can indeed be worse than the cause of it.

[Burnette]

This is what is happening in Atlanta as well. Half empty hospitals and with very little revenue to keep them afloat. Atlanta isn't a small City.

I read this and thought about your post. You're right:

This "tale of two hospitals" is a function of clumsy, if well-intentioned, federal and state directives to halt all non-emergency procedures, which appeared at first blush to be a reasonable precaution to limit unnecessary exposure and safeguard staff, beds and equipment.

But instead of merely preserving hospital beds and other resources, this heavy-handed injunction has created a burden of its own design: a historic number of empty beds in systems left untouched by the pandemic.

Those hospitals have resorted to unprecedented levels of furloughs to stave off temporary budget shortfalls, but industry and economic trends point to more lasting outcomes unless immediate action is taken.

At 18 percent of the U.S. economy, health care is a $3.6 trillion industry annually. By barring all elective surgeries, which covers a huge array of operations, like knee reconstructions or even cancer biopsies, hospitals have been denied billions in revenue in just the last month alone.

It's not surprising, then, that the industry shed a record 43,000 health care workers in the first month of this crisis. Experts expect equal or greater layoffs this month, when the sustained forbearance has made revenue even more urgent.

We need to sustain robust staffing in every corner of this country—and prohibiting elective surgeries outright is wildly counterproductive.

Understand: The availability of clinicians in hot spots like New York City, New Orleans and Detroit is no more an urgent public health crisis than health care staffing everywhere else because when this is over these patients will still require dialysis, chemotherapy and other life-saving treatments.

https://www.newsweek.com/most-us-hospitals-are-empty-soon-they-might-closed-good-opinion-1500028

[HTupolev]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV8QtgDHvgw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

Not sure if posted already but found it interesting
His primary argument is based on the assumption that the positive test rates can be accurately extrapolated to the general population as case rates. This is ridiculous: COVID infection tests are almost entirely distributed to people believed to have COVID or suspected to have been in contact with someone who has had COVID, which is about the most obvious source of selection bias imaginable.
If you applied the same methodology to other medical phenomenon, you'd get all kinds of bonkers results. For instance: when someone shows up to a medical facility suspecting themselves to have been stabbed, they are confirmed to have been stabbed in nearly 100% of cases. By his reasoning, we can use this data to infer that nearly 100% of Americans have been stabbed.
His methodology for determining flu rates and deaths is wildly different: choose an unusually-bad flu season and use death and case estimates from the CDC (who use mathematical models to infer totals, with methods like checking how often words like "pneumonia" and "influenza" show up on death certificates).

Sweden is a useful point of comparison, but his claim that they're nearly enjoying business-as-usual life is tenuous, especially if the point of comparison is the lockdowns in the US. Our lockdowns are fairly porous.
The effectiveness of lockdowns is a question that needs to be asked, but "lockdown" versus "no lockdown" is a massive oversimplification: the measures exist on a complex spectrum. This is obvious when comparing to an aggressive-lockdown situation like Wuhan where, based on positivity rates from testing, there's strong evidence that the lockdown immediately resulted in a significant negative growth rate.
To be accurate, such analysis also needs to look at when hotspots started and when various measures were taken. Simply looking at how everybody compares at a single point in time is not going to provide useful information.

I have no doubt that he's a qualified medical doctor, the concerns he raises about the structure of the lockdowns are very legitimate, and I completely agree with his opinion that we should put a high priority on expanding test capabilities.
But as a statistical analyst, he has no idea what he's talking about.

[oldpotatoe]

most definitely.. hospitals are not making money. They need elective surgeries to be profitable. My wife works in that area and they have reduced hours+reduced pay at her entire company.

I'll ask the obvious, why must they be 'profitable'? Why not operate on true cost basis, with a decent 'health insurance' system where the docs, nurses, staff and administrators get paid but not CEO or board of directors get YUGE salaries and bonus'? Why must a health insurance company CEOs get paid MILLION$ each year?

Same for food. Farmers plowing under crops, dairies throwing milk down the drain, truly needy people, families, children going hungry..I would hope that this crisis would show in BIG LETTERS the YUGE shortcomings in these, as well as other, areas. And the ridiculously skewed priorities the of any government 'budget'..

This crisis shows so many problems
-Health care
-food distribution
-helping the less fortunate
-consume, consume, CONSUMer driven economy
-environment
-immigration(still a political football)

BUY will the people who are elected step up? I doubt it.....

AngryScentist-
to go back to what John said though, i dont believe this is like other natural (or otherwise) disasters. this will cut much deeper than anything we have seen in the recent past, i'm convinced.

i remain optimistic there will be some positive change.

i may be wrong, but i hope i'm right.

I think it really depends a LOT on who's sitting in the 'big chairs' on January 21st, 2021...From mayors to the big boys and girls and his (hopefully woman) running mate..

[verticaldoug]

I've had a few bourbons but I don't think I'd follow you regardless. FWIW, I didn't address you or your posts. I was simply curious, like AngryScientist, why broken quotes are prevalent. No need to explain further. It's unimportant.



I don't. I wish they weren't used so often where a period should be but it is what it is I suppose.

I think the broken quote happens because I was editing the original post to correct a misspelling or grammatical error while xxtwin had already quoting the original post.

[Hank Scorpio]

Unfortunately our VA was on the news this week and not for a good reason although I am not surprised. I would expect our pop to mirror the civilian numbers.

But on the good side. I am still in charge of site screening and received our IR thermometers this week. Seem fairly accurate when compared to oral temps. Haven’t convinced anyone to submit for a rectal yet. Weather has been a real drag. Tent was taken down last week due to wind but was put back up a day later. We are starting up testing for staff who are asymptomatic as well. Slowly we are getting up to speed.

[verticaldoug]

Same for food. Farmers plowing under crops, dairies throwing milk down the drain, truly needy people, families, children going hungry..I would hope that this crisis would show in BIG LETTERS the YUGE shortcomings in these, as well as other, areas. And the ridiculously skewed priorities the of any government 'budget'..
.

Pouring milk down the drain is a result of the efficiency of the system.
The system stopped working, now someone needs to intervene to correct.

The normal payments have stopped so the system just stops.

Now if someone were to intervene so the farmers can have their milk picked up, but instead of a being paid they get a charitable credit for donating food, they may choose to comply. Because a zero becomes a none zero on an after tax basis. The Gov can also change the rules for how charitable/in-kind contributions can be written off against forward earned income..

But someone needs to provide the money to pay the truck drivers and the other distributors, pay for the diesel for shipping etc. It comes down to lack of funds. So either a state or federal agency needs to step up.

The same thing happened with distributing PPE initially. Manufacturers weren't willing to ship without payment, but the supplies needed were so large compared to normal distribution channels, the distributors could not provide the letters of credit or invoice financing needed, it took time for the payment system to get caught up with the increased demand.

It takes a tremendous amount of coordination at the local, state and federal level.

And don't underestimate the factor of trust. If the old distribution system has stopped, and you have to work with new distributors you don't know, how can you differentiate between the person who has good intentions and those who are bad actors.
It takes time.

[oldpotatoe]

Pouring milk down the drain is a result of the efficiency of the system.
The system stopped working, now someone needs to intervene to correct.

The normal payments have stopped so the system just stops.

Now if someone were to intervene so the farmers can have their milk picked up, but instead of a being paid they get a charitable credit for donating food, they may choose to comply. Because a zero becomes a none zero on an after tax basis. The Gov can also change the rules for how charitable/in-kind contributions can be written off against forward earned income..

But someone needs to provide the money to pay the truck drivers and the other distributors, pay for the diesel for shipping etc. It comes down to lack of funds. So either a state or federal agency needs to step up.

The same thing happened with distributing PPE initially. Manufacturers weren't willing to ship without payment, but the supplies needed were so large compared to normal distribution channels, the distributors could not provide the letters of credit or invoice financing needed, it took time for the payment system to get caught up with the increased demand.

It takes a tremendous amount of coordination at the local, state and federal level.

Agree..lack of coordination, poor leadership, has revealed a fractured, inefficient, hap hazard 'system'. It HAS resulted in more than a few COVID deaths that could have been prevented.

-Health care
-the consumer economy
-immigration

First line from WH DOD budget comic book
As described in the President’s National Security Strategy, the Government’s fundamental responsibility is to
protect the American people, the homeland, and the American way of life.

Oopsie...Sorry to thread drift but as the US prints almost 3 $TRILLION, maybe a re-alignment?? To add a few $ to the problems the US sees in the above areas??
The Budget
requests $750 billion for national defense, a $34 billion or 5-percent increase over the 2019 enacted
level
Ha, crying about spilled milk? The USDA is providing 16 billion to dairy farmers.

Why not $16BILLION towards distribution? That would also help other industries, like trucking?..why just throw money at farmers? Cuz they vote..

BUT, I though China was gonna buy all sorts of US farm goods? What happened to that, 'phase 1'..from 'tariff man'...

[Mikej]

Ha, crying about spilled milk? The USDA is providing 16 billion to dairy farmers.

[joosttx]

.

Was this posted here already?

Snippet:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

” We have, to date, fewer than 200 deaths from the coronavirus in the United States — a small data set from which to draw big conclusions “

I wonder if David Katz has changed his opinion after an additional 50K deaths? There are good points in the opinion piece but I still hold my premise if had done nothing we would of been in worse economic, psychological and civil state than now. Do you not think that?

[tuscanyswe]

” We have, to date, fewer than 200 deaths from the coronavirus in the United States — a small data set from which to draw big conclusions “

I wonder if David Katz has changed his opinion after an additional 50K deaths? There are good points in the opinion piece but I still hold my premise if had done nothing we would of been in worse economic, psychological and civil state than now. Do you not think that?

Sure but why would one compare against doing nothing? Does anyone advocate doing nothing?

[rain dogs]

I read this and thought about your post. You're right:

This "tale of two hospitals" is a function of clumsy, if well-intentioned, federal and state directives to halt all non-emergency procedures, which appeared at first blush to be a reasonable precaution to limit unnecessary exposure and safeguard staff, beds and equipment.

But instead of merely preserving hospital beds and other resources, this heavy-handed injunction has created a burden of its own design: a historic number of empty beds in systems left untouched by the pandemic.

Those hospitals have resorted to unprecedented levels of furloughs to stave off temporary budget shortfalls, but industry and economic trends point to more lasting outcomes unless immediate action is taken.

At 18 percent of the U.S. economy, health care is a $3.6 trillion industry annually. By barring all elective surgeries, which covers a huge array of operations, like knee reconstructions or even cancer biopsies, hospitals have been denied billions in revenue in just the last month alone.

It's not surprising, then, that the industry shed a record 43,000 health care workers in the first month of this crisis. Experts expect equal or greater layoffs this month, when the sustained forbearance has made revenue even more urgent.

We need to sustain robust staffing in every corner of this country—and prohibiting elective surgeries outright is wildly counterproductive.

Understand: The availability of clinicians in hot spots like New York City, New Orleans and Detroit is no more an urgent public health crisis than health care staffing everywhere else because when this is over these patients will still require dialysis, chemotherapy and other life-saving treatments.

https://www.newsweek.com/most-us-hospitals-are-empty-soon-they-might-closed-good-opinion-1500028

Why is it that when firefighters have little to do or are working at much lower than full capacity, we don't furlough them or lay them off, nor do we suggest strategic arson to stimulate new waves of work, or starting fires that keep them working at 100% capacity?

The reason is because one (the firefighters) is built on a logical, functioning, non-profit-motivated system with a primary purpose of serving the public interest..... these other 'systems'.... ugh.

[Hilltopperny]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0 Interesting and logical information on the Stanford coronavirus study.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[smontanaro]

The wikipedia page is going to be bigger than any other that's for sure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

It's already pretty big, 330 references at the moment. And, there is far more than a single page. Type "COVID-19" into the search box and see what it suggests. Their search page suggests there are 7855 pages containing "COVID-19" and another 14,987 pages containing "coronavirus".

[CNY rider]

Why is it that when firefighters have little to do or are working at much lower than full capacity, we don't furlough them or lay them off, nor do we suggest strategic arson to stimulate new waves of work, or starting fires that keep them working at 100% capacity?

The reason is because one (the firefighters) is built on a logical, functioning, non-profit-motivated system with a primary purpose of serving the public interest..... these other 'systems'.... ugh.

Here's another perspective:
I work for a medium sized non-profit health care system in a very rural part of upstate NY.
Trust me, we definitely put the "NON" in non-profit.
Despite being well run and fiscally prudent we are perpetually straining to not lose money.
We employ many talented physicians (and lots of other talented professionals, just using the Docs as an example.)
So to pick one....one of them is a really good ortho Doc. The guy who takes care of athletes, and is an athlete himself. He's the guy you or I want to do our total knee or total hip when the time comes. He's been doing it for 20 years but is always up to date on modern techniques.
Like all the physicians in our system, he is an employee. Gets the same paycheck every month. No greed factor involved for us.
He's expensive for the health care system....but also generates a lot of revenue.
You know what he's doing now? Pretty close to nothing. The thing he's so good at, he can't do. Because we are not allowed to have elective surgeries. In a county that has had ZERO new cases of COVID diagnosed in the last 2 days, and something like 5 or 6 this entire week.
He isn't happy.
His patients who are in pain aren't happy.
The health care system is suffering devastating financial losses.
The secretaries and nurses who would be working with him and are now furloughed certainly aren't happy.

We have got to let different areas of the country try different strategies to normalize life again.
We can do careful monitoring and backtrack if needed. But every day that we treat all of the USA like they have the same problems as Queens is another day that the economic hole gets even deeper.

[Hilltopperny]

Here's another perspective:
I work for a medium sized non-profit health care system in a very rural part of upstate NY.
Trust me, we definitely put the "NON" in non-profit.
Despite being well run and fiscally prudent we are perpetually straining to not lose money.
We employ many talented physicians (and lots of other talented professionals, just using the Docs as an example.)
So to pick one....one of them is a really good ortho Doc. The guy who takes care of athletes, and is an athlete himself. He's the guy you or I want to do our total knee or total hip when the time comes. He's been doing it for 20 years but is always up to date on modern techniques.
Like all the physicians in our system, he is an employee. Gets the same paycheck every month. No greed factor involved for us.
He's expensive for the health care system....but also generates a lot of revenue.
You know what he's doing now? Pretty close to nothing. The thing he's so good at, he can't do. Because we are not allowed to have elective surgeries. In a county that has had ZERO new cases of COVID diagnosed in the last 2 days, and something like 5 or 6 this entire week.
He isn't happy.
His patients who are in pain aren't happy.
The health care system is suffering devastating financial losses.
The secretaries and nurses who would be working with him and are now furloughed certainly aren't happy.

We have got to let different areas of the country try different strategies to normalize life again.
We can do careful monitoring and backtrack if needed. But every day that we treat all of the USA like they have the same problems as Queens is another day that the economic hole gets even deeper.


Couldn’t agree more! Rural Upstate New York suffers because it is attached to the most populated city in the country. Our policies up here should be different than a tiny geographic area of the state that needs to function on a different level based on its enormous population. Something has to change soon or we will continue to suffer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JStonebarger]

We can do careful monitoring and backtrack if needed.

We can? How?

Without real testing any need to backtrack is two to threes weeks away from apparent. What does that lag do to our efforts to monitor? How do you contact trace someone from three weeks ago?

I pretty much live your example -- the clinic I work in up and down. But what happens when healthcare opens up and the nail salons and shops don't? Will everyone patiently wait their turn while figuring out (on their own) how to safely reopen?

Lots of industries clamoring to reopen. Unfortunately we don't have the leadership to make it possible.

[peanutgallery]

Can you even call people secretaries anymore?

The American health care system has dug its own hole over the years, be interesting how the covid changes it, if at all

Here's another perspective:
I work for a medium sized non-profit health care system in a very rural part of upstate NY.
Trust me, we definitely put the "NON" in non-profit.
Despite being well run and fiscally prudent we are perpetually straining to not lose money.
We employ many talented physicians (and lots of other talented professionals, just using the Docs as an example.)
So to pick one....one of them is a really good ortho Doc. The guy who takes care of athletes, and is an athlete himself. He's the guy you or I want to do our total knee or total hip when the time comes. He's been doing it for 20 years but is always up to date on modern techniques.
Like all the physicians in our system, he is an employee. Gets the same paycheck every month. No greed factor involved for us.
He's expensive for the health care system....but also generates a lot of revenue.
You know what he's doing now? Pretty close to nothing. The thing he's so good at, he can't do. Because we are not allowed to have elective surgeries. In a county that has had ZERO new cases of COVID diagnosed in the last 2 days, and something like 5 or 6 this entire week.
He isn't happy.
His patients who are in pain aren't happy.
The health care system is suffering devastating financial losses.
The secretaries and nurses who would be working with him and are now furloughed certainly aren't happy.

We have got to let different areas of the country try different strategies to normalize life again.
We can do careful monitoring and backtrack if needed. But every day that we treat all of the USA like they have the same problems as Queens is another day that the economic hole gets even deeper.

[CNY rider]

We can? How?

Without real testing any need to backtrack is two to threes weeks away from apparent. What does that lag do to our efforts to monitor? How do you contact trace someone from three weeks ago?

I pretty much live your example -- the clinic I work in up and down. But what happens when healthcare opens up and the nail salons and shops don't? Will everyone patiently wait their turn while figuring out (on their own) how to safely reopen?

Lots of industries clamoring to reopen. Unfortunately we don't have the leadership to make it possible.

It's not going to be easy, but it has to happen.
Because there isn't going to be a vaccine for months or more likely years.
And despite the promising results treating people with bleach and internal lighting we still have to look for other treatments.
We are facing economic ruin. NY City somehow I'm sure will bounce back. Upstate NY, I'm not so sure.
So we have to start somewhere. And I think that should be in counties with low incidence rates, and strong health care systems and public health infrastructure .

[zap]

Edit

Why is it that when firefighters have little to do or are working at much lower than full capacity, we don't furlough them or lay them off, nor do we suggest strategic arson to stimulate new waves of work, or starting fires that keep them working at 100.

Maybe not the best example. Many fire depts are staffed by volunteers.......people with full time jobs at a construction company or manufacturer, etc.

[Mikej]

Why is it that when firefighters have little to do or are working at much lower than full capacity, we don't furlough them or lay them off, nor do we suggest strategic arson to stimulate new waves of work, or starting fires that keep them working at 100% capacity?

The reason is because one (the firefighters) is built on a logical, functioning, non-profit-motivated system with a primary purpose of serving the public interest..... these other 'systems'.... ugh.

Please don’t mix up non-profit with government / tax payer funded. For example, the US Military is a non-profit.

[JStonebarger]

It's not going to be easy, but it has to happen.

Of course. But so far we're basically operating on the Las Vegas model, one step ahead of injecting disinfectants.
These first areas opening up are likely lambs to the slaughter.

[Burnette]

Here's another perspective:
I work for a medium sized non-profit health care system in a very rural part of upstate NY.
Trust me, we definitely put the "NON" in non-profit.
Despite being well run and fiscally prudent we are perpetually straining to not lose money.
We employ many talented physicians (and lots of other talented professionals, just using the Docs as an example.)
So to pick one....one of them is a really good ortho Doc. The guy who takes care of athletes, and is an athlete himself. He's the guy you or I want to do our total knee or total hip when the time comes. He's been doing it for 20 years but is always up to date on modern techniques.
Like all the physicians in our system, he is an employee. Gets the same paycheck every month. No greed factor involved for us.
He's expensive for the health care system....but also generates a lot of revenue.
You know what he's doing now? Pretty close to nothing. The thing he's so good at, he can't do. Because we are not allowed to have elective surgeries. In a county that has had ZERO new cases of COVID diagnosed in the last 2 days, and something like 5 or 6 this entire week.
He isn't happy.
His patients who are in pain aren't happy.
The health care system is suffering devastating financial losses.
The secretaries and nurses who would be working with him and are now furloughed certainly aren't happy.

We have got to let different areas of the country try different strategies to normalize life again.
We can do careful monitoring and backtrack if needed. But every day that we treat all of the USA like they have the same problems as Queens is another day that the economic hole gets even deeper.

Thank you for sharing your experiences and I agree, different areas are impacted differently and we need different policies and procedures that are inline with what's really happening at each locality.

[zap]

Edit

Yeah, keep printing money unless you like shantytowns.

Might that not lead to shantycities.

[smontanaro]

It's not going to be easy, but it has to happen.
Because there isn't going to be a vaccine for months or more likely years.

I think the point is that if you can test at an appropriate level, you can tell very quickly when you have an uptick in cases and need to backtrack. You can't simply open things back up, even in small rural communities, if you don't have any idea if or how the virus is working its way through those communities. Most infected people appear to have few or no symptoms, but can transmit the virus. By the time you have someone with symptoms show up at a clinic or hospital, the virus will have been bouncing around the community for a couple weeks.

Testing is key, as I'm sure others have been saying in this and other threads. No doubt there are other requirements which must be satisfied before an area can safely reopen for business, but testing is front and center the most important requirement.

I am sympathetic to the wide gulf in density and demographics between NYC and the rest of the state. Even here in Portland (where I've been ensconced for the past six weeks), I see how different the rates of infection are between Multnomah County and the central part of the state. I lived in the lightly populated suburbs of Albany area for 15 years. For the past 20+ years I've lived in the Chicago area. I see first-hand how rural and urban differ. It is truly unfortunate that a "one size fits all" approach has been taken, but I think it was required, certainly at the start. As things get better under control, perhaps that will be refined. Consider NYC residents who could, fleeing to the Catskills and the Hamptons, or well-off Chicago citizens taking off for Door County or Southwestern Michigan to "escape the virus." Not to mention the road, rail and air transport systems. Like it or not, these people all bring the virus with them. It's difficult for the governors to view their states as multiple distinct entities with one set of rules for urban and another for rural.

[Burnette]

Of course. But so far we're basically operating on the Las Vegas model, one step ahead of injecting disinfectants.
These first areas opening up are likely lambs to the slaughter.

Yoy have to ask yourself what special and specific circumstances made some areas more impacted than others. How to combat what happened in a high death area isn't by default necessarily the right path for another area.

Processes and procedures need to be designed and implemented to get places open where it can work. Sitting at home toll next year isn't even an option.

As I stated earlier, we should be working just as hard on workplace protection and common are spread prevention while opening where we can as we are on a vaccine.

[verticaldoug]

Edit



Might that not lead to shantycities.


Shantytowns were called hoovervilles in 30's. We can call them Trumpvilles in the 2020's.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7900122.stm

Audio slideshow: The road to Hooverville
The Wall Street Crash of October 1929 was a trigger that quickly plunged the United States from economic prosperity to the depths of the Great Depression.

[oldpotatoe]

I think the point is that if you can test at an appropriate level, you can tell very quickly when you have an uptick in cases and need to backtrack. You can't simply open things back up, even in small rural communities, if you don't have any idea if or how the virus is working its way through those communities. Most infected people appear to have few or no symptoms, but can transmit the virus. By the time you have someone with symptoms show up at a clinic or hospital, the virus will have been bouncing around the community for a couple weeks.

Testing is key, as I'm sure others have been saying in this and other threads. No doubt there are other requirements which must be satisfied before an area can safely reopen for business, but testing is front and center the most important requirement.

I am sympathetic to the wide gulf in density and demographics between NYC and the rest of the state. Even here in Portland (where I've been ensconced for the past six weeks), I see how different the rates of infection are between Multnomah County and the central part of the state. I lived in the lightly populated suburbs of Albany area for 15 years. For the past 20+ years I've lived in the Chicago area. I see first-hand how rural and urban differ. It is truly unfortunate that a "one size fits all" approach has been taken, but I think it was required, certainly at the start. As things get better under control, perhaps that will be refined. Consider NYC residents who could, fleeing to the Catskills and the Hamptons, or well-off Chicago citizens taking off for Door County or Southwestern Michigan to "escape the virus." Not to mention the road, rail and air transport systems. Like it or not, these people all bring the virus with them. It's difficult for the governors to view their states as multiple distinct entities with one set of rules for urban and another for rural.

Yet, that's exactly what's happening in some places..

Testing be damned!! Many places don't want to test because, horrors, they will SEE how wide spread the disease REALLY is and show what a dumm-arse decision to reopen is.
Sure but why would one compare against doing nothing? Does anyone advocate doing nothing?

As a mater of fact, yes, on TV, advocating letting the disease 'wash over us' to create 'herd immunity'..and this has been brought more than once during meetings of his "brain trust".

[Hilltopperny]

I just went to check out the numbers of the two counties I live or own property in. I found the numbers to conflict the official reported numbers from the state site as opposed to what the county lists. According to Montgomery County there has only been one death and it was the first person in the county to have been diagnosed whereas the state has four deaths listed. Same thing for Fulton county which has not listed any deaths and the state is claiming 3. The numbers of actual cases are all very low, but not every county has the same testing capacity. Reality is that the places where random testing has been done reveal that the number of infected people is 35-80 times higher than has been reported from non random testing and that has been pretty consistent with what other nations who randomly tested have been stating. So with deaths diminishing and the actual number of asymptomatic folks who did contract the virus it is safe to assume at this point that SARS/Covid 19 is far less lethal than the projections we were given. I linked the Stanford study above if anybody wants to check it out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JStonebarger]

Yoy have to ask yourself what special and specific circumstances made some areas more impacted than others. How to combat what happened in a high death area isn't by default necessarily the right path for another area.

Processes and procedures need to be designed and implemented to get places open where it can work. Sitting at home toll next year isn't even an option.

As I stated earlier, we should be working just as hard on workplace protection and common are spread prevention while opening where we can as we are on a vaccine.

This is kind of like discussing the non-existent testing. Where will those policies and procedures come from?
Special and specific circumstances are well and good, but population density, as one example, is a factor everywhere in the country. An aggressive national (or even international) policy would have been most effective at dealing with COVID-19. Now that the federal government has abdicated it's responsibilities where will that leadership come from? "People will figure it out" is going to get a lot of extra people killed.

[JStonebarger]

https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/annistonstar.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/92/69218df6-6fdb-11ea-8c9c-87e63635ddc8/5e7d73820dac6.image.jpg

[Burnette]

This is kind of like discussing the non-existent testing. Where will those policies and procedures come from?
Special and specific circumstances are well and good, but population density, as one example, is a factor everywhere in the country. An aggressive national (or even international) policy would have been most effective at dealing with COVID-19. Now that the federal government has abdicated it's responsibilities where will that leadership come from? "People will figure it out" is going to get a lot of extra people killed.

We can't go backwards and let the blame fall where it may, I don't care

But we can and indeed must open. There's ways to do it in some places while others, like theaters, not so much.

I work at a site of over 350 people and we've never shut down. We started early and enforced protection rules.

Yes, states, cities, individual businesses, we're going to have to figure it out, and we can. As stated above each locality has it's own needs and challenges, so they're going to need tailored policies and procedures to meet them.

We can do it. And we will. The federal government has it's place, we're going to have to do ourselves. We'll probably do it better anyway.

Staying at home isn't an option for most, let's figure out how to get this going again.

[JStonebarger]

...we're going to have to do ourselves. We'll probably do it better anyway.

So, the Las Vegas model. I was just checking.

[Burnette]

So, the Las Vegas model. I was just checking.

That's dismissive and wrong, a mischaracterization of what I posted above.

Read it again and see that I'm saying we cannot stay shut down, it's not sustainable and yes, we can figure it out. We already have in some places.

[oldpotatoe]

T

Read it again and see that I'm saying we cannot stay shut down, it's not sustainable and yes, we can figure it out. We already have in some places.

AND, since the re-opening gig is brand new as of today, I'd say it's hardly been 'figured out'..these are all test cases, the radical Las Vegas to more conservative baby steps but none have it 'figured it out'..IMHO..

[54ny77]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnns-chris-cuomo-was-like-a-boiling-pot-in-confrontation-over-breaking-quarantine-cyclist-says

dunno if this was already discussed, but needless to say, i'm on the side of the cyclist regarding the unbelievable behavior of cuomo (the other one, at cnn).

[Burnette]

AND, since the re-opening gig is brand new as of today, I'd say it's hardly been 'figured out'..these are all test cases, the radical Las Vegas to more conservative baby steps but none have it 'figured it out'..IMHO..

It's not brand new today, again, we never shut down, nor has many services and manufacturers.

We're making it work regardless of your opinion of our situation. You do whatever you feel is fight for you and your family, I'm all for that. We're doing the same here. We're keeping the lights on and making it work.

[JStonebarger]

That's dismissive and wrong, a mischaracterization of what I posted above.

Read it again and see that I'm saying we cannot stay shut down, it's not sustainable and yes, we can figure it out. We already have in some places.

Again, I realize we cannot stay shut down. Do you realize we cannot safely reopen? Show me your plan, at least, before I'll believe "we can figure it out." "It all depends" does not convince me.

Or open right up. I'll stay home, or at least not spend my money somewhere I can't trust. Then in three weeks I'll know whether you had figured it out.

[Burnette]

Again, I realize we cannot stay shut down. Do you realize we cannot safely reopen? Show me your plan, at least, before I'll believe "we can figure it out." "It all depends" does not convince me.

Or open right up. I'll stay home, or at least not spend my money somewhere I can't trust. Then in three weeks I'll know whether you had figured it out.

You do whatever you feel makes you safe, that's the same for anyone, but appreciate that we've actually been open already In certain areas. Where I work, where my wife works , utilities, police stations, even restaurants around here have figured ot out. Yes, some have their own policies and procedures.

We can do this. I already know because we already are.

[rallizes]

You do whatever you feel makes you safe, that's the same for anyone, but appreciate that we've actually been open already In certain areas. Where I work, where my wife works , utilities, police stations, even restaurants around here have figured ot out. Yes, some have their own policies and procedures.

We can do this. I already know because we already are.

I haven’t read the whole thread but what geographical area are you in?

[Burnette]

I haven’t read the whole thread but what geographical area are you in?

Peidmont, North Carolina. Hell, there's more traffic now than before COVID19, you know this if you're here. If a place is open, it's busy.

There is a way, we're going to get through this, not by sitting, but by standing.

[paredown]

Peidmont, North Carolina. Hell, there's more traffic now than before COVID19, you know this if you're here. If a place is open, it's busy.

There is a way, we're going to get through this, not by sitting, but by standing.

Well when you get the spike like New York, you will have our thoughts and prayers.:)

[mkbk]

Can I ride a bike safely, no.

Can I drive a car safely, no.

Can I go to work safely, (15 yrs grocery, 400 team mates), no.

Can I do the above carefully, yes.

Is it my responsibility to be careful, yes.

Can the lock down end with care, yes.

Don't we all have to do our own cost benefit analysis, yes.

Are people stupid and will they die, yes.

Am I stupid (at times) and will I die, yes.

[joosttx]

Sure but why would one compare against doing nothing? Does anyone advocate doing nothing?

Yes, there is a revisionist premise that we would be better off if shelter in place did not occur because Covid was not as bad as we thought. The pickle we have gotten ourselves in is that SIP was to prevent hospitals from being overrun not to protect folks 100%. But now it seems the question is not how to prevent hospitals from being overrun with sick Covid patients but how do we make sure everyone is 100% safe returning to work. This is not achievable, 100% safe, but that is how it is conveyed to the general public. And what policies are implemented to make people feel secure and be safe. We are so f’ed on the leadership trust side that this is going to be hard to do. Remember our leadership is suggesting intravenous bleach therapy is a idea good enough to dedicate research time and money to while the scientistS nod their heads in submissive agreement. What bothers me is you can see the calculus working by exaggerating the idea shelter in place was too heavy handed minimizing the idea the SIP did not prevent our country falling into chaos which would resulted into greater economic and human casualties than what we see now and then comparing it to we need to go back to work because as everyone can see by these distortions this virus ain’t a big deal.

[Burnette]

Well when you get the spike like New York, you will have our thoughts and prayers.:)

Well, that's macabre and sad isn't it? First, again, ask yourself what special conditions made New York a harder hit area than others?

And two, we've been this way from the start, so your extrapolation has already been proven false.

[joosttx]

Well, that's macabre and sad isn't it? First, again, ask yourself what special conditions made New York a harder hit area than others?

And two, we've been this way from the start, so your extrapolation has already been proven false.

Sorry, the economy of North Carolina can disappear. And we will be ok. The economy of New York cannot. If North Carolina suffers for the benefit of NYC so be it.

[Burnette]

Sorry, the economy of North Carolina can disappear. And we will be ok. The economy of New York cannot. If North Carolina suffers for the benefit of NYC so be it.

Wow. That's a false argument that doesn't even exist or make sense.

[JStonebarger]

You do whatever you feel makes you safe, that's the same for anyone, but appreciate that we've actually been open already In certain areas. Where I work, where my wife works , utilities, police stations, even restaurants around here have figured ot out. Yes, some have their own policies and procedures.

We can do this. I already know because we already are.

I've been working the whole time. I'm curious how much of my local economy is actually closed, because an awful lot of businesses are open, at least partly.
Even the meat packing plants. (Oh wait, apparently they can't "do this.")

[William]

Just a reminder folks, stick to the known facts, don't wade into politics (yes, hard but don't), and be courteous in your discussions. No need to attack anyone for disagreeing.









W.

[Burnette]

I've been working the whole time. I'm curious how much of my local economy is actually closed, because an awful lot of businesses are open, at least partly.
Even the meat packing plants. (Oh wait, apparently they can't "do this.")

In bold above, it's unnecessary snark.

Meat packing plants in NC are notorious for having poor working conditions, they in no way represent the places that have never stopped here and are making it work.

[joosttx]

Wow. That's a false argument that doesn't even exist or make sense.


1) I agree NYC is predisposed to Covid virus
2) those conditions may not be as apparent in NC
3) you ask why should NC suffer the same policies as NYC to prevent COVID spread
4) well NYC is more economically important than NC

Follow the money..........

[XXtwindad]

You do whatever you feel makes you safe, that's the same for anyone, but appreciate that we've actually been open already In certain areas. Where I work, where my wife works , utilities, police stations, even restaurants around here have figured ot out. Yes, some have their own policies and procedures.

We can do this. I already know because we already are.

Some version of this inevitably makes sense. I don’t know what that really looks like. But “sheltering in place” in perpetuity (or in the absence of a distant vaccine) is not realistic.

[Burnette]

Sorry I forgot that you needs steps:

1) I agree NYC is predisposed to Covid virus
2) those conditions may not be as apparent in NC
3) you ask why should NC suffer the same policies as NYC to prevent COVID spread
4) well NYC is more economically important than NC

Follow the money..........

Condensension from a person that didn't comprehend my post and went on a personal tangent.

At no point did I ask why should NC suffer the same policies as NYC. You missed it completely and tried to br mean about it.

Let's discuss, leave personal digs out.

[oldpotatoe]

It's not brand new today, again, we never shut down, nor has many services and manufacturers.

We're making it work regardless of your opinion of our situation. You do whatever you feel is fight for you and your family, I'm all for that. We're doing the same here. We're keeping the lights on and making it work.

Missed it I guess, where are you? Good on you if you have indeed 'figured it out' but vast majority of places have not.

Ah Peidmont, North Carolina.
The entire state of North Carolina will be under a statewide "stay at home" in less than 48 hours.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper issued the order, which will be effective 5 p.m. Monday.

Government officials said in places where the local government and state government "stay at home" orders differ, the more restrictive order applies.
North Carolina 'stay at home' order issued as some Piedmont proclamations go into effect at 5 p.m.

https://www.wxii12.com/article/new-covid-19-cases-reported-in-piedmont-state-toll-passes/31968867#

[Burnette]

Some version of this inevitably makes sense. I don’t know what that really looks like. But “sheltering in place” in perpetuity (or in the absence of a distant vaccine) is not realistic.

Exactly, nobody is saying open everything all at once, do it where you can safely, like we already are here in our production, protection, homw/auto services, health and food services....

We're making it work. Figuring out how to expand it to other places is the logical next step.

[rain dogs]

Please don’t mix up non-profit with government / tax payer funded. For example, the US Military is a non-profit.

There is no mix up.

Non profit is any organization that operates without a profit motive. That has nothing to do with from where the specific funding sources originate. A non profit can get funding by any variety of different sources including donations, state/federal government, grants, sales etc.

I'm not going to elaborate more because it could veer off topic, but that's just a factual description of 'non-profit'.

[joosttx]

Exactly, nobody is saying open everything all at once, do it where you can safely, like we already are here in our production, protection, homw/auto services, health and food services....

We're making it work. Figuring out how to expand it to other places is the logical next step.

This nothing more than the rest of the country is doing so I don’t know how to expand it to other places when they are doing it. I thought you were advocating something like Las Vegas. Or public gathering events like concerts and sports.

[pbarry]

How New Mexico, One of the Poorest States, Averted a Steep Death Toll

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/coronavirus-new-mexico.html?algo=bandit-story&fellback=false&imp_id=279852101&action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

[Burnette]

Missed it I guess, where are you? Good on you if you have indeed 'figured it out' but vast majority of places have not.

I live in the Piedmont, NC. The three small cities of Winston Salem, Greensboro and High Point are my places of travel.

My wife works from home three days a week, goes in for two and I haven't changed from day one, I go in five days a week.

I support local restaurants, it's amazing to see the ingenuity sone have implemented in their procedures. And some are doing very well, Dario's hot dogs always has a line down the street.

And again, traffic is thicker now, as I stated too, I'd a places is open it's busy. There's a way to make this work.

Gyms, movie theaters, I can't see a way, but other places, yeah, we can and are figuring this thing out.

On a personal note I truly wish you well as your demographic is hardest hit. We have given money to the food bank, a back pack, food delivery and such but I want to di more. I worked twelve hours a day this week, when it slows I want to help personally some hiw.

For us to get through this, thisecths6 have money and an able body are going to have to help those lacking either of those or both.

For those who can charge our of the trenches, let's go get it. For those who have to shelter, stay safe and cheer us on.

[ciclista_tifoso]

.




Originally Posted by joosttx
” We have, to date, fewer than 200 deaths from the coronavirus in the United States — a small data set from which to draw big conclusions “

I wonder if David Katz has changed his opinion after an additional 50K deaths? There are good points in the opinion piece but I still hold my premise if had done nothing we would of been in worse economic, psychological and civil state than now. Do you not think that?


Sure but why would one compare against doing nothing? Does anyone advocate doing nothing?


Indeed. Katz' Op Ed piece had specific suggestions - far from 'doing nothing'.

Here's the last few paragraphs:




If we were to focus on the especially vulnerable, there would be resources to keep them at home, provide them with needed services and coronavirus testing, and direct our medical system to their early care. I would favor proactive rather than reactive testing in this group, and early use of the most promising anti-viral drugs. This cannot be done under current policies, as we spread our relatively few test kits across the expanse of a whole population, made all the more anxious because society has shut down.

This focus on a much smaller portion of the population would allow most of society to return to life as usual and perhaps prevent vast segments of the economy from collapsing. Healthy children could return to school and healthy adults go back to their jobs. Theaters and restaurants could reopen, though we might be wise to avoid very large social gatherings like stadium sporting events and concerts.

So long as we were protecting the truly vulnerable, a sense of calm could be restored to society. Just as important, society as a whole could develop natural herd immunity to the virus. The vast majority of people would develop mild coronavirus infections, while medical resources could focus on those who fell critically ill. Once the wider population had been exposed and, if infected, had recovered and gained natural immunity, the risk to the most vulnerable would fall dramatically.

A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible. With each passing day, however, it becomes more difficult. The path we are on may well lead to uncontained viral contagion and monumental collateral damage to our society and economy.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

.

[Burnette]

This nothing more than the rest of the country is doing so I don’t know how to expand it to other places when they are doing it. I thought you were advocating something like Las Vegas. Or public gathering events like concerts and sports.

I should have made a bigger distinction then. I agree, I don't see how shoulder to shoulder gatherings can happen at all now.

But other places of business can and will develop and implement policies and procedures to get going again.

I'm in agreement with you though, only where you can do it right. And we are in some places. It can be done.

[oldpotatoe]

Exactly, nobody is saying open everything all at once, do it where you can safely, like we already are here in our production, protection, homw/auto services, health and food services....

We're making it work. Figuring out how to expand it to other places is the logical next step.

There is a way, we're going to get through this, not by sitting, but by standing.


"I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees'...??

NOT trying to argue but are you in and around Greenboro? Couldn't find an actual place/town called Piedmont, NC. Piedmont triangle..but no 'Piedmont'.

275 reported cases, 19 deaths for the county...Infection rate, if stats hold true..infection rate there 'probably' in the 2500-8000 level. 1.1 million population...

Good luck.

[zap]

https://www.wxii12.com/article/new-covid-19-cases-reported-in-piedmont-state-toll-passes/31968867#

We in NC are very aware of our stay at home orders. But there are many many exceptions.

Everyone in NC is out and about, buying houses (many from NY are moving to NC) traveling to vacation home's, remodeling, etc.

Can't go to school, get a haircut, go to bars or sit in a restaurant......but free beer from kegs at a pop up tent today :banana:, get a massage,.....

[XXtwindad]

I live in the Piedmont, NC. The three small cities of Winston Salem, Greensboro and High Point are my places of travel.

My wife works from home three days a week, goes in for two and I haven't changed from day one, I go in five days a week.

I support local restaurants, it's amazing to see the ingenuity sone have implemented in their procedures. And some are doing very well, Dario's hot dogs always has a line down the street.

And again, traffic is thicker now, as I stated too, I'd a places is open it's busy. There's a way to make this work.

Gyms, movie theaters, I can't see a way, but other places, yeah, we can and are figuring this thing out.

On a personal note I truly wish you well as your demographic is hardest hit. We have given money to the food bank, a back pack, food delivery and such but I want to di more. I worked twelve hours a day this week, when it slows I want to help personally some hiw.

For us to get through this, thisecths6 have money and an able body are going to have to help those lacking either of those or both.

For those who can charge our of the trenches, let's go get it. For those who have to shelter, stay safe and cheer us on.

Yes. Pretty much all of this. I was discussing this with my Partner last night. Her Mother is a recent cancer survivor, so we have assiduously been following the SIP mandate. All of us (including her Mother) now agree: those who are ostensibly healthy should venture out. Those who are at risk should continue to SIP.

I think it's easier to conceptualize an extended SIP if you have the economic means to do so. That's a vantage point that hasn't been discussed too much.

[zap]

Latest Covid 19 figures from NC.

Tests 100, 584
Cases 8,267
Deaths 295

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-coronavirus-cases-maps-graphs-live-updates/19010016/

[JStonebarger]

In bold above, it's unnecessary snark.

Meat packing plants in NC are notorious for having poor working conditions, they in no way represent the places that have never stopped here and are making it work.

Sorry, but I was referring to our meat packing plants in Iowa, which also are notorious for poor working conditions, and as an industry have been so resistant to protecting their workers from COVID-19 that they have to shut down.

Fortunately my wife and I don't eat red meat, so we won't be as bothered by the meat shortages coming. But still, a great example of letting every one figure it out for themselves.

[echappist]

.


[/SIZE]

Indeed. Katz' Op Ed piece had specific suggestions - far from 'doing nothing'.

Here's the last few paragraphs:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

.

Im not the poster to whom you addressed. It appears comparing to a true control (aka do nothing) would not be appropriate. Having said that, what’s argued in the article has not been effected at a large scale, at least in the U.S.; so it would be comparing to a counterfactual. Maybe what was done in Hong Kong or Korea are relevant in this regard, but someone needs to suss out the details.

That said, the article linked has an un-ignorable tone, as exemplified by the line about 200 deaths to date. Setting aside whether this were meant to be “glib”, the point about what he would say and advocate for now, after freezer trucks had to be brought in and public mass graves dug in the parks, is salient. What he advocated then may not be the same as what he would advocate now, given the significant changes on the ground. It would not be appropriate to apply what was said a month ago to the present situation, without at least ascertaining if the author himself has shifted in his proposed solution.

[XXtwindad]

Latest Covid 19 figures from NC.

Tests 100, 584
Cases 8,267
Deaths 295

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-coronavirus-cases-maps-graphs-live-updates/19010016/

According to a quick search, North Carolina has roughly a population of 10.6 million people. That means that barely 1% of the population has been tested, presumably only those that were more than mildly symptomatic.

[Burnette]

Latest Covid 19 figures from NC.

Tests 100, 584
Cases 8,267
Deaths 295

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-coronavirus-cases-maps-graphs-live-updates/19010016/

COVID19 has left it's mark on NC, moreso in some areas, less so in other areas. So there you go. You find what is working and you duplicate it it where you can.

Millions are working everyday, we can figure this out. There will be some that cannot as we all stated above, but do what you can where you can.

[Burnette]

According to a quick search, North Carolina has roughly a population of 10.6 million people. That means that barely 1% of the population has been tested, presumably only those that were more than mildly symptomatic.

Which again, you look at Nrw York, you have to ask yourself why they were worse and it isn't far fetched to see that our solutions and policies can and will differ.

Each locality has to do what's best for them. We have to open what we can, we just have to figure where and how.

[ciclista_tifoso]

.

Im not the poster to whom you addressed. It appears comparing to a true control (aka do nothing) would not be appropriate. Having said that, what’s argued in the article has not been effected at a large scale, at least in the U.S.; so it would be comparing to a counterfactual. Maybe what was done in Hong Kong or Korea are relevant in this regard, but someone needs to suss out the details.

That said, the article linked has an un-ignorable tone, as exemplified by the line about 200 deaths to date. Setting aside whether this were meant to be “glib”, the point about what he would say and advocate for now, after freezer trucks had to be brought in and public mass graves dug in the parks, is salient. What he advocated then may not be the same as what he would advocate now, given the significant changes on the ground. It would not be appropriate to apply what was said a month ago to the present situation, without at least ascertaining if the author himself has shifted in his proposed solution.


Arguably, his point from a month ago is all the more pressing now.

Also: have there been any tentative figures on deaths caused not by covid-19 itself, but due to neglect (such as the negative outcome of available healthcare resources focused on covid-19 and not on other care/health needs, etc)?
A percentage of those that died in senior homes were due, at least in part, to neglect - those that required daily, consistent care no longer recieved it as senior care workers stayed home or minimized interaction.

I read a number of instances where patients, after surgery, were placed in a regular bed - rather than ICU, because ICUs were all allocated to covid-19 - post-op and died as a result. These may be isolated instances but it doesn't appear they're being tracked right now.

None of the above factors in the loss of lives, and livelihoods, that we are experiencing now, and will experience for many months to follow, due specifically to the scale and duration of lockdown measures in place (depression, starvation, malnourishment, poverty -- all heavy contributors to an increase of mortality rates).

.

[CNY rider]

Yes.

I think it's easier to conceptualize an extended SIP if you have the economic means to do so. That's a vantage point that hasn't been discussed too much.

Thank you 100x.
Many of our neighbors in upstate NY can not survive a more prolonged shutdown.
So let’s start doing some elective surgeries.
Let’s get the guys at No.22 back to their factory with appropriate distancing and safeguards like daily temperature checks so they can build bicycles and support their families.
Let’s let a real estate agent show vacant farmland, with a mask on.
And let’s see what the results are and then use logical, rational scientific thought to decide what comes next.
Do we rush in to open the Baseball Hall of Fame, and bring in tens of thousands of tourists?
No.
And the idea that the N.Y. City economy is more important than ours or anyone else’s is a fine concept for the coastal elites to espouse, and I understand the macroeconomics behind it. But don’t expect anyone in flyover country to like hearing it or to take it lying down. On a personal level it’s revolting to hear.

[paredown]

This nothing more than the rest of the country is doing so I don’t know how to expand it to other places when they are doing it. I thought you were advocating something like Las Vegas. Or public gathering events like concerts and sports.

I really think part of the problem is the sloppy language being used. Those generally in favor of quarantine to flatten the curve are using the language of "shelter in place" or stay at home.

Those who are resisting--like the protesters in Michigan and Texas are using the language of lockdown.

Nowhere in the US has their been a true "lockdown"--with curfews (and serious policing of violators). Even in New York in hard hit communities like the Hassids in Williamsburg--when the residents have violated the stay at home orders, they have been notified, and asked to leave the area--no arrests and no fines.

So I accept the first part of Burnette's point--no area that I know of has ceased economic activity. Throw in all the telecommuters/remote workers etc.
Telecommuters aside, even in New York, essential services, health care, a good segment of construction has continued, road and highway crews around here are working like crazy on curbing and paving that is hard to do when there is a lot of traffic, state crews are working on 287 etc etc. Transit workers etc too.

What has stopped is private sector non-essentials like beauty parlors, restaurants, bars, and public sector segments where large-scale spreading can occur, like schools. High contact sectors--bars, retail, gyms etc is ~18% of current economy--so a lot--but by no means the whole enchilada.

So probably 80-85% of people are still working? (hard to get a number for this--this is a guess based on forecasts for how much the economy is expected to contract, or do a simple calculation of % filing for unemployment as a % of total work force.) So start from the assumption that this is NOT economic Armageddon for everyone

The big problem then is that the impacts will be felt differently, that some sectors of the population were in trouble the minute the shelter in place was imposed--that's one set of big, big problems. So those that start arguing about the 'cure worse than the disease' in all its variants are collapsing the problem of the economic fallout and missing the main point--people die when they get this disease, and there is no "recovery" from that.

The second part (of what I think Burnette is saying) that is hard to accept--is the claim--"We've been doing fine so far, and we have had limited cases of COVID, therefore we don't need to shelter in place."--eg We're somehow doing it right.

Here it seems to me that there is a huge risk involved in this sort of 'post hoc propter hoc' fallacy. North Carolina has absolutely NO idea why they have so few cases--and to claim 'Hey we did it right that's why we have so few' is whistling past the graveyard. And without testing, they are gambling the health of their residents on that logical fallacy.

My suspicion is that North Carolina has very few cases because they have been blind lucky NOT because of what they have done. Ergo my snarky remark above. Zap's numbers suggest that they are no where near knowing what their true infection rate is.

Latest Covid 19 figures from NC.

Tests 100, 584
Cases 8,267
Deaths 295

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-coronavirus-cases-maps-graphs-live-updates/19010016/

[XXtwindad]

.




Arguably, his point from a month ago is all the more pressing now.

Also: have there been any tentative figures on deaths caused not by covid-19 itself, but due to neglect (such as the negative outcome of available healthcare resources focused on covid-19 and not on other care/health needs, etc)?
A percentage of those that died in senior homes were due, at least in part, to neglect - those that required daily, consistent care no longer recieved it as senior care workers stayed home or minimized interaction.

I read a number of instances where patients, after surgery, were placed in a regular bed - rather than ICU - post-op and died as a result. These may be isolated instances but it doesn't appear they're being tracked right now.

None of the above factors in the loss of lives, and livelihoods, that we are experiencing now, and will experience for many months to follow, due specifically to the scale and duration of lockdown measures in place (depression, starvation, malnourishment, poverty -- all heavy contributors to an increase of mortality rates).

Absolutely.

[zap]

According to a quick search, North Carolina has roughly a population of 10.6 million people. That means that barely 1% of the population has been tested, presumably only those that were more than mildly symptomatic.

Testing numbers are not high. I'm sure like the rest of the world test kits are limited. I have not paid too much attention to testing facilities other than a few weeks ago I was aware a temporary drive up location was set up not far from us. Not sure if it's still operating or not.

Fortunately cases in NC never did reach forcasted levels. Local and state officials are fairly optimistic but cautious.....stay at home (such as it is) was extended Thursday to May 8th.

Proposed stage 1 opening in NC is pretty modest. Retail (non essential) stores can open with social distancing and most likely mask will be a requirement, no gatherings larger than 10. Stage 2 determined by stats. Stage 3 ??????

[Burnette]

Sorry, but I was referring to our meat packing plants in Iowa, which also are notorious for poor working conditions, and as an industry have been so resistant to protecting their workers from COVID-19 that they have to shut down.

Fortunately my wife and I don't eat red meat, so we won't be as bothered by the meat shortages coming. But still, a great example of letting every one figure it out for themselves.

Even the best of heads will get things wrong and meat packing plants aren't common or templates to follow. In all honesty, in your state and mine they should have been shut down before COVID19.

We will figure it out, again, we already have in some places. It's how to extrapolate that to places that are closed but could be open with the right procedures in place.

[XXtwindad]

Thank you 100x.
Many of our neighbors in upstate NY can not survive a more prolonged shutdown.
So let’s start doing some elective surgeries.
Let’s get the guys at No.22 back to their factory with appropriate distancing and safeguards like daily temperature checks so they can build bicycles and support their families.
Let’s let a real estate agent show vacant farmland, with a mask on.
And let’s see what the results are and then use logical, rational scientific thought to decide what comes next.
Do we rush in to open the Baseball Hall of Fame, and bring in tens of thousands of tourists?
No.
And the idea that the N.Y. City economy is more important than ours or anyone else’s is a fine concept for the coastal elites to espouse, and I understand the macroeconomics behind it. But don’t expect anyone in flyover country to like hearing it or to take it lying down. On a personal level it’s revolting to hear.

In this goes on another few months, when the presumably "safe harbor' jobs are no longer that safe, perhaps people will be changing their tunes...

[Burnette]

I really think part of the problem is the sloppy language being used. Those generally in favor of quarantine to flatten the curve are using the language of "shelter in place" or stay at home.

Those who are resisting--like the protesters in Michigan and Texas are using the language of lockdown.

Nowhere in the US has their been a true "lockdown"--with curfews (and serious policing of violators). Even in New York in hard hit communities like the Hassids in Williamsburg--when the residents have violated the stay at home orders, they have been notified, and asked to leave the area--no arrests and no fines.

So I accept the first part of Burnette's point--no area that I know of has ceased economic activity. Throw in all the telecommuters/remote workers etc.
Telecommuters aside, even in New York, essential services, health care, a good segment of construction has continued, road and highway crews around here are working like crazy on curbing and paving that is hard to do when there is a lot of traffic, state crews are working on 287 etc etc. Transit workers etc too.

What has stopped is private sector non-essentials like beauty parlors, restaurants, bars, and public sector segments where large-scale spreading can occur, like schools. High contact sectors--bars, retail, gyms etc is ~18% of current economy--so a lot--but by no means the whole enchilada.

So probably 80-85% of people are still working? (hard to get a number for this--this is a guess based on forecasts for how much the economy is expected to contract, or do a simple calculation of % filing for unemployment as a % of total work force.) So start from the assumption that this is NOT economic Armageddon for everyone

The big problem then is that the impacts will be felt differently, that some sectors of the population were in trouble the minute the shelter in place was imposed--that's one set of big, big problems. So those that start arguing about the 'cure worse than the disease' in all its variants are collapsing the problem of the economic fallout and missing the main point--people die when they get this disease, and there is no "recovery" from that.

The second part (of what I think Burnette is saying) that is hard to accept--is the claim--"We've been doing fine so far, and we have had limited cases of COVID, therefore we don't need to shelter in place."--eg We're somehow doing it right.

Here it seems to me that there is a huge risk involved in this sort of 'post hoc propter hoc' fallacy. North Carolina has absolutely NO idea why they have so few cases--and to claim 'Hey we did it right that's why we have so few' is whistling past the graveyard. And without testing, they are gambling the health of their residents on that logical fallacy.

My suspicion is that North Carolina has very few cases because they have been blind lucky NOT because of what they have done. Ergo my snarky remark above. Zap's numbers suggest that they are no where near knowing what their true infection rate is.

I'm saying we are and have been doing well in some sectors, I'm not saying open anything up without processes and procedures in place.

We have to figure it out and implement it where we can and open, some like large theaters and gyms will have to remain shut

[JStonebarger]

We will figure it out, again, we already have in some places. It's how to extrapolate that to places that are closed but could be open with the right procedures in place.

No state has "closed," not one. Likewise, no state has adopted widespread testing and tracing.

I'm trying to fathom who has what figured out.

[paredown]

No state has "closed," not one. Likewise, no state has adopted widespread testing and tracing.

I'm trying to fathom who has what figured out.

Other than--if you are making EOL decisions, avoid Nursing homes?

California announced this week that they are rolling out testing to non-symptomatic people, which along with the antibodies testing they are doing might give them a better idea of where they are at (and first news from the antibody testing is that there has been a wider swath of infected people already.)

New York is still testing symptomatic, health care workers, those with known contact to symptomatic people--and AFAIK no testing yet for those who are just concerned they may have it. (And has been said many times--the way that the triage was done, a lot of people (including friends) were simply told "Oh you probably have it, go home and call us if it gets worse" so numbers of cases counted is probably low.)

They have announced this week the big push for contact tracing and antibody testing with Bloomberg--so that should be the beginning for understanding where we are at.

[echappist]

.




Arguably, his point from a month ago is all the more pressing now.

Also: have there been any tentative figures on deaths caused not by covid-19 itself, but due to neglect (such as the negative outcome of available healthcare resources focused on covid-19 and not on other care/health needs, etc)?
A percentage of those that died in senior homes were due, at least in part, to neglect - those that required daily, consistent care no longer recieved it as senior care workers stayed home or minimized interaction.

I read a number of instances where patients, after surgery, were placed in a regular bed - rather than ICU, because ICUs were all allocated to covid-19 - post-op and died as a result. These may be isolated instances but it doesn't appear they're being tracked right now.

None of the above factors in the loss of lives, and livelihoods, that we are experiencing now, and will experience for many months to follow, due specifically to the scale and duration of lockdown measures in place (depression, starvation, malnourishment, poverty -- all heavy contributors to an increase of mortality rates).

.

What you wrote in your latter paragraphs are reasonable, but that still does not address why one should prima facie take policy cues argued in a op-ed from more than a month ago and apply those policy points to the present (one exception being proactive testing as he propounded in the op-ed, that’s a prescription with which most would agree)

Th op-ed also took a one-size-fits-all approach and gave no distinctions re how places that are disparately affected should react (see the other theme coursing through the thread). Indeed certain places are on their course back to normal, and the cues from the op-ed may indeed be relevant (e.g. Germany). But it’s really hard to see the relevance of the op-ed (and not to beat a dead horse, from a month ago), as it would apply to the harder hit areas.

[Burnette]

No state has "closed," not one. Likewise, no state has adopted widespread testing and tracing.

I'm trying to fathom who has what figured out.

How to operate safely. All that I've pointed our have been doing it, again, we have to extend that to businesses that are closed where we can. Use what we're doing and build on it.

[rain dogs]

.
Indeed. Katz' Op Ed piece had specific suggestions - far from 'doing nothing'.

Here's the last few paragraphs:

"So long as we were protecting the truly vulnerable, a sense of calm could be restored to society. Just as important, society as a whole could develop natural herd immunity to the virus. The vast majority of people would develop mild coronavirus infections, while medical resources could focus on those who fell critically ill. Once the wider population had been exposed and, if infected, had recovered and gained natural immunity, the risk to the most vulnerable would fall dramatically."


People say "herd immunity" to easily without thinking of the repercussions or the math behind that.

It is widely accepted that you need at LEAST 60% of a population to be infected to reach heard immunity.

"It has been estimated that 60% of the population would need to be infected for herd immunity to be achieved,"

“Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection as we have no vaccine!)." https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/

So do the math.

We all can agree that the US population is more or less 328,239,523? Correct?

So, 328,239,523 x .60 = 196,943,713 people. That's at least One Hundred and Nighty Six MILLION people needing to be infected, at least, to get herd immunity (a theory, not a guarantee)

We can argue all day long what the % of deaths would be from a high of 10% because hospitals collapse to a low of 1% because .... miracles happen. Here are the numbers of dead if that many people get infected based on a theory:

10% - 19.7 million
9% - 17.7 million
8% - 15.7 million
7% - 13.8 million
6% - 11.8 million
5% - 9.8 million
4% - 7.9 million
3% - 5.9 million
2% - 4 million

You pick the % you think it will be, in ANY case, those numbers could be World War level deaths for a single country, for some continents!.... for a theory. What if its 65% needed, 70%.... and then the global complications... travel, trade etc. Herd immunity, easy words to say...

I, for one, don't favor herd immunity as a strategy

[ciclista_tifoso]

.

Except the numbers as of now are nowhere near 2%; they're tracking at or below 1% mortality. And those numbers don't factor in scenarios where deaths were caused to contributing factors/other underlying illnesses rather than covid-19 alone. Most of those that died had other illnesses.

Immunity will need to happen, either via 'herd immunity' or a future vaccine (and vaccines are generally not very good at completely 'removing' coronaviruses, particularly when they mutate. The vaccine itself may well have side effects, etc).

If we keep 'shelter in place' until a vaccine arrives, millions will die (directly due to SIP/lockdown measures, not the virus itself) or be utterly destroyed financially, or deteriorated health-wise.

A staggered lifting of the lockdown seems to be the most sensible option.

.

[zap]

My suspicion is that North Carolina has very few cases because they have been blind lucky NOT because of what they have done. Ergo my snarky remark above. Zap's numbers suggest that they are no where near knowing what their true infection rate is.

Not sure anyone has a handle on infection rates.

In the triangle area counties (I live in Wake Co.) were quicker with stay at home orders. I think Mecklenburg (Charlotte) was as well. NC state followed a few days (week) later with its order.

As with the rest of the US and the world, stay at home orders were put in place to reduce cases in order to not overwhelm hospitals. Cases in NC are below forecast and past peak (according to some like UofWA).

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/IHME-model-north-carolina-death-projection/

[echappist]

.

Except the numbers as of now are nowhere near 2%,; they're tracking at or below 1% mortality. And those numbers don't factor in scenarios where deaths were caused to contributing factors/other underlying illnesses rather than covid-19 alone. Most of those that died had other illnesses.

I thought we were way past the stage of argument about Covid-caused vs Covid-assisted?

In case it wasnt made clear in the last round, many of the comorbidities have been successfully managed (e.g. heart issues and diabetes) by modern medicine, and people manage to live decades after diagnosis.

[paredown]

How New Mexico, One of the Poorest States, Averted a Steep Death Toll

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/coronavirus-new-mexico.html?algo=bandit-story&fellback=false&imp_id=279852101&action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

Interesting--but I wish they would have included dates for the stay-at-home order. But a good corrective to the articles that everyone has seen about the Navajo death toll.

[tuscanyswe]

.

Except the numbers as of now are nowhere near 2%,; they're tracking at or below 1% mortality. And those numbers don't factor in scenarios where deaths were caused to contributing factors/other underlying illnesses rather than covid-19 alone. Most of those that died had other illnesses.

Yes but it would be fair to assume that those underlying factors and illnesses are equally represented in the rest of the population that has not yet got the virus so the mortality rate should not go down because of this. Unless u are suggesting that those with these factors have had a bigger chances of catching the virus? (not impossible if they visit hospitals and such a lot but seems far fetched for now).

However i think a more realistic number would be :

196,943,713 x 0.3 % mortality rate or perhaps lower = approx 600,000

Ofcourse a terrible number but there is as of right now no certainty that there will die any less than that regardless of path chosen, perhaps a lot more tho for reasons other than the virus.

[ciclista_tifoso]

I thought we were way past the stage of argument about Covid-caused vs Covid-assisted?

In case it wasnt made clear in the last round, many of the comorbidities have been successfully managed (e.g. heart issues and diabetes) by modern medicine, and people manage to live decades after diagnosis.


With each added health issue immunity is further compromised. Each illness requires not just 'modern medicine' but certain diet and a working immune system. Flu/coronaviruses, especially if contracted after a certain age (65-70+) absolutely minimizes the chances of survival (strict diets often can't be maintained, etc) as one's immune system is further strained.

Compounding factors.

.

[RyanH]

However i think a more realistic number would be :

196,943,713 x 0.3 % mortality rate or perhaps lower = approx 600,000

Ofcourse a terrible number but there is as of right now no certainty that there will die any less than that regardless of path chosen, perhaps a lot more tho for reasons other than the virus.

This.

[Mikej]

People say "herd immunity" to easily without thinking of the repercussions or the math behind that.

It is widely accepted that you need at LEAST 60% of a population to be infected to reach heard immunity.

"It has been estimated that 60% of the population would need to be infected for herd immunity to be achieved,"

“Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection as we have no vaccine!)." https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/

So do the math.

We all can agree that the US population is more or less 328,239,523? Correct?

So, 328,239,523 x .60 = 196,943,713 people. That's at least One Hundred and Nighty Six MILLION people needing to be infected, at least, to get herd immunity (a theory, not a guarantee)

We can argue all day long what the % of deaths would be from a high of 10% because hospitals collapse to a low of 1% because .... miracles happen. Here are the numbers of dead if that many people get infected based on a theory:

10% - 19.7 million
9% - 17.7 million
8% - 15.7 million
7% - 13.8 million
6% - 11.8 million
5% - 9.8 million
4% - 7.9 million
3% - 5.9 million
2% - 4 million

You pick the % you think it will be, in ANY case, those numbers could be World War level deaths for a single country, for some continents!.... for a theory. What if its 65% needed, 70%.... and then the global complications... travel, trade etc. Herd immunity, easy words to say...

I, for one, don't favor herd immunity as a strategy

Do you think this virus is just going to go away if everyone stays inside?

[RyanH]

California is resuming elective surgeries (everything except cosmetic) and relabeling them essential. I think it is helpful to relabel them as essential because elective conjures up images of nose jobs while the reality is what keeps hospitals afloat are people that need surgeries due to being in pain or avoid further complications.

We also need to create specific facilities for COVID patients in my opinion. At risk people are deathly afraid of ending up in the ER and are avoiding it even though they may need it. There was an article the other day about where all the stroke patients were because the numbers admitted for strokes is down over 50%. There are consequences of what we're doing that go beyond economics.

[rallizes]

Yes but it would be fair to assume that those underlying factors and illnesses are equally represented in the rest of the population that has not yet got the virus so the mortality rate should not go down because of this. Unless u are suggesting that those with these factors have had a bigger chances of catching the virus? (not impossible if they visit hospitals and such a lot but seems far fetched for now).

However i think a more realistic number would be :

196,943,713 x 0.3 % mortality rate or perhaps lower = approx 600,000

Ofcourse a terrible number but there is as of right now no certainty that there will die any less than that regardless of path chosen, perhaps a lot more tho for reasons other than the virus.

fwiw, if i am not mistaken, i believe people actually lived longer during the Great Depression in the US

[paredown]

Do you think this virus is just going to go away if everyone stays inside?
Do you think that "herd immunity" actually means something when the scientists STILL don't know if having the Covid-19 infection creates sufficient antibodies so that you can be confident that you will not be reinfected? Or you are gambling on some as-yet not fully understood cellular immunity--about which we know very little.

WHO continues to review the evidence on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.2-17 Most of these studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus. However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,4 suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery. As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.

WHOhttps://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

[Mikej]

Do you think that "herd immunity" actually means something when the scientists STILL don't know if having the Covid-19 infection creates sufficient antibodies so that you can be confident that you will not be reinfected? Or you are gambling on some as-yet not fully understood cellular immunity--about which we know very little.



WHOhttps://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

Meh -

[paredown]

Meh -

Ah yes--when you've got nothing, go for the ad hominem.

The simple declarative at the end of that quote is a good summary of what we know about immunity. And it was written for non-specialists concerned about the policy question about the idea of having a Covid passport as a way of determining who can freely circulate without risk to themselves or others.

[tuscanyswe]

I think most scientist still think that one will have immunity or some immunity after having defeated the virus.

But lets assume the worst. Lets say u do not. What does this change?
Are we then to just live in our basement for another 2 years till we come up with the modern version of the bubble boy suit? :)

As scary as that sound i dont see it changing much if anything?

[jlwdm]

Do you think this virus is just going to go away if everyone stays inside?

It might, but it does not really matter as we will never be close to having everyone stay inside.

Jeff

[tuscanyswe]

fwiw, if i am not mistaken, i believe people actually lived longer during the Great Depression in the US

Cant comment on that but assuming its true what bearing has that got on this situation?

Are you thinking that ppl may live longer or that ppl wont die for other reasons than the virus if we shelter in place for say 18 months?

[Mikej]

Ah yes--when you've got nothing, go for the ad hominem.

The simple declarative at the end of that quote is a good summary of what we know about immunity. And it was written for non-specialists concerned about the policy question about the idea of having a Covid passport as a way of determining who can freely circulate without risk to themselves or others.

I don’t have anything- NONE OF US DO!!! We just keep posting links and quote what we want to believe. People, we keep searching for the answers but the only winners are the advertisers-

[rallizes]

Cant comment on that but assuming its true what bearing has that got on this situation?

Are you thinking that ppl may live longer or that ppl wont die for other reasons than the virus if we shelter in place for say 18 months?

i thought you were suggesting many people would die because of an economic shut down

and i was suggesting that didn't seem to happen during the Great Depression

[Mikej]

i thought you were suggesting many people would die because of an economic shut down

and i was suggesting that didn't seem to happen during the Great Depression

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.history.com/.amp/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancyi

[tuscanyswe]

i thought you were suggesting many people would die because of an economic shut down

and i was suggesting that didn't seem to happen during the Great Depression

Ah yes but not in the west (at least not even remotely to the same extent)
I think ppl would die, definately no doubt. They just wont be in the western countries like i said in previous posts.

And the world was not interconnected in even remotely the same way 100 years ago as it is today.

Thats interesting tho.

[skitlets]

I think it's easier to conceptualize an extended SIP if you have the economic means to do so. That's a vantage point that hasn't been discussed too much.

+1. I think the calls to re-open for economic reasons are focused on the wrong problem. There is deep economic strain, yet government spending has been focused on major corporate bailouts in hopes that it'll trickle down. We've seen this same old story... despite consumer spending driving 70% of the economy.

Banks are estimated to make $350b from processing SBA loans from the PPP alone. Nevermind the Fed Reserve initiatives. That's enough to double the $1200 payment most are getting (on a delayed basis).

[cinema]

i got a kick out of this and won't post the link because tucker is pretty politically polarizing...

but tucker carlson had the cyclist on his show who confronted chris cuomo for being out of his home while having corona virus. pretty entertaining. cuomo called him 'a loser fat tire biker' and then said 'you'll meet me again over this' lol

[ciclista_tifoso]

.

Ah yes but not in the west (at least not even remotely to the same extent)
I think ppl would die, definately no doubt. They just wont be in the western countries like i said in previous posts.

And the world was not interconnected in even remotely the same way 100 years ago as it is today.

Indeed. Completely different environment/world now than 100 yrs ago. The disparity between the 'comfort' and 'working/struggling' classes are far more stark.
Millions can't go more than a week without a paycheck - minimal, if any, savings. Cost of living much more challenging relative to 100yrs ago. Humans less self-sufficient, far more reliant on supply chains for sustenance. Many more Americans are generally less-well, health-wise, and more reliant on various types of medications, than before. Food quality is not what it was.

Much of the above is due to focus on profit above all else, but that's another topic altogether (no, i'm not anti-capitalist, at all. Enterprise is good. Enterprise/capital at the expense of lives/livelihoods? No good. And that's what we've had/have, increasingly, over the last ~75yrs+).

The health care system here in America is also not what many may presume it to be, as we're now beginning to see.

In short, we are ill-equipped to handle another deep depression without mass negative impact to the majority. It's happening already.

(My commentary is specific to the U.S.; in 3rd world countries it will be markedly worse, but not as stark of a difference as some may expect)
.

[ColonelJLloyd]

Banks are estimated to make $350b from processing SBA loans from the PPP alone. Nevermind the Fed Reserve initiatives. That's enough to double the $1200 payment most are getting (on a delayed basis).

I am not arguing with any point you have or are attempting to make. I want to make that clear. But numbers, and using them carefully, are important to me.

Can you tell me how you are arriving at banks making an estimated $350B from processing PPP loans? It's my understanding they are receiving a 5% processing fee on the loan amount. The first round of funding was $349B and the funding passed last week is an additional $310B, I believe. 5% of $659B is just under $33B.

[Burnette]

I'm posting this for the irony of what we were posting before.

Watching BBC World News now and they're talking about COVID19 in Italy. An island just off the coast was harshly impacted with the virus which they believed came from a visiting soccer team from the mainland. A woman on the island says her hair dresser who can't work left the island to go work at a meat processing plant in Italy putting labels on packaging.

They must have better procedures and policies than our tragically mismanaged operations here in the US.

[skitlets]

I am not arguing with any point you have or are attempting to make. I want to make that clear. But numbers, and using them carefully, are important to me.

Can you tell me how you are arriving at banks making an estimated $350B from processing PPP loans? It's my understanding they are receiving a 5% processing fee on the loan amount. The first round of funding was $349B and the funding passed last week is an additional $310B, I believe. 5% of $659B is just under $33B.

I got the # from https://www.pymnts.com/smbs/2020/banks-will-see-windfall-from-smb-350b-covid-19-bailout/
since FT is paywalled. Point taken -- my reading comprehension wasn't so great this morning before coffee.

[ORMojo]

CNN: WHO says no evidence shows that having coronavirus prevents a second infection (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/25/us/who-immunity-antibodies-covid-19/index.html)

[OtayBW]

CNN: WHO says no evidence shows that having coronavirus prevents a second infection (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/25/us/who-immunity-antibodies-covid-19/index.html)
If so, we are f%*&$d.