Post COVID-19 Economic Plan/Policy

[93KgBike]

Our pediatric dentist had just opened a new office closer to town last Fall, and because there is really no such thing as dental-insurance anymore, he and his employees are reliant on parents with cash.

Is the current stimulus plan even thinking about him?

The next GDP numbers won't be out until the end of July. I doubt he'll still have an office, equipment or staff by then...

[oldpotatoe]

Our pediatric dentist had just opened a new office closer to town last Fall, and because there is really no such thing as dental-insurance anymore, he and his employees are reliant on parents with cash.

Is the current stimulus plan even thinking about him?

The next GDP numbers won't be out until the end of July. I doubt he'll still have an office, equipment or staff by then...
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 1.0 percent

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
The optimistic view from economic forecasters is that the annual GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2020 will, at best, be MINUS 8%.

[thwart]

Two dentists I know are taking advantage of a plan I don’t know much about called ‘PPP’... from the little I know it’s a gov’t loan that’s mostly forgiven if you bring back your employees and pay them.

[oldpotatoe]

Two dentists I know are taking advantage of a plan I don’t know much about called ‘PPP’... from the little I know it’s a gov’t loan that’s mostly forgiven if you bring back your employees and pay them.

https://www.investopedia.com/your-guide-to-the-paycheck-protection-program-ppp-and-how-to-apply-4802195

[Tickdoc]

Dentist here and we are still open....slightly. I fired most of my staff (18 of 22) including myself.

PPP loans are as useless as my unemployment card at the moment. Yes, I filed unemployment. At least I think I did. I am unable to log in to the state website to either report or check to see status.

I worked yesterday and saw a grand total of 5 emergency patients for a total gross income of about $900.00. (That is significantly less than what it takes to even keep the lights on.) The sad part is, I am relegated to only a few emergency procedures, and of the ten or so patients I have seen since this outbreak, only three maybe have been true emergencies) If I am going to put myself at risk for not a true emergency then let me put myself at risk to help the masses as usual.

We have a new office being built currently that was scheduled to open mid may but is now delayed til Juneish.

That is the bad part. Just biding my time until the powers at be decide how and when we can work again.

The good part is I do have a little savings to float on. I am still eating and able to leave the lights on. This will pass and we will recover. I am more worried as to how we are going to catch up, though.

Prior to this crisis we were running about a month out to see new patients and busting at the seams. I was wishing for some relief because I was working too hard. Careful what you wish for, I guess.

Hopeful that our recovery will coincide with a new getting my staff back and some new hires as well to help stem the overflow as we get back on top.
Worried that my already expensive procedures just went up for a newly added protective equipment charge that will be added to your bill for my additional gowns, masks, etc. Not to mention the extra time and complication of admitting a patient for services.

I gotta go now, it's time for my mid morning nap.:p

[C40_guy]

@Tickdoc You are a man with a big and generous heart. Things will work out for you, just probably not quite in the way that you're envisioning.

[HenryA]

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/04/08/the-long-hard-road-to-decoupling-from-china/?utm-access=rcw

This is part of a long term answer.

[Mr. Pink]

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/04/08/the-long-hard-road-to-decoupling-from-china/?utm-access=rcw

This is part of a long term answer.

Really? That's the problem? China? How do they make a new tooth in my mouth cost about 7000 dollars? One tooth (extraction, implant, crown). How about moving over to a health care system that provides universal care for all, you know, like every other country in the developed world. And dont tell me that dental care isn't health care. That's perverse. We now have a situation where many thousands of Americans have to travel to Costa Rica and Mexico to have dental work done, because only the fairly wealthy can afford serious work. I dont begrudge a dentist making a decent living, but when my surgeon spends his time in a one sided conversation working in my mouth after I tell him I am a serious skier telling me about his annual helicopter skiing trip as I stare at his new Porsche out the window, then, well, maybe something is a bit wrong with that situation.

[mtechnica]

I’m pretty sure it’s too soon to know for sure what’s going to happen. Mostly though there seems to be two camps: the economic destruction camp and the things will go back to normal pretty quickly camp. It’s hard to know who is right when the stock market is looking fairly strong but the job numbers are bad. I think it’s too early in the crisis to know what the economy in the US will look like this summer or fall with all of the question marks and the election coming.

[estilley]

Going to be very hard to keep this thread out of the political realm.

But I'll just pose a few things to think about....

Maybe we shouldn't tie health insurance to one's employer? Clearly that doesn't work well in moments of crisis.

If we want to make sure we have enough PPE/other physical goods for another crisis perhaps we should make it ourselves.

For American manufacturing to really come back we will need to adopt the German model. They have kept it at a 25% share of their economy where ours has fallen under 10%.

They have:

-Employee representation on the board of every company
-Guaranteed vacation (often 5+ weeks) and family leave. Happy employees make better products.
-A "cooperation" between union leaders and company heads to "not spill the honeypot". Don't kill the golden goose by getting greedy. This goes for both the union bosses and company CEOs. This could be the hardest one of all in America. We think of everything as a zero sum game.

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/03/572901119/how-germany-wins-at-manufacturing-for-now

That's what I would like to see.

[Mr. Pink]

The most shocking thing I've seen is massive auto lines at food banks, already.

Remember, before this all happened, according to the Fed, 40% of Americans couldn't come up with 400 dollars cash for an emergency. Hunger can lead to civil unrest pretty quickly.

[MikeD]

Our pediatric dentist had just opened a new office closer to town last Fall, and because there is really no such thing as dental-insurance anymore, he and his employees are reliant on parents with cash.



No dental insurance? I have Delta Dental.

[Mr. Pink]

No dental insurance? I have Delta Dental.

Try using that plan for anything more serious than exams and cleaning and simple fillings. Besides, most plans have an annual max. I had a good one that stopped me at 2000 for the year. Last I checked, the best employer plans maxed at 3000. That's rare. You dont get much for that money if you're in need of implants or bridges.

[jlwdm]

The most shocking thing I've seen is massive auto lines at food banks, already.

Remember, before this all happened, according to the Fed, 40% of Americans couldn't come up with 400 dollars cash for an emergency. Hunger can lead to civil unrest pretty quickly.

Although a follow up article indicated that only 12% could not make the payment. Cash was the key to the 40%.

Jeff

[HenryA]

How did this turn into “dental care is too expensive”?

[Red Tornado]

Going to be very hard to keep this thread out of the political realm.

But I'll just pose a few things to think about....

Maybe we shouldn't tie health insurance to one's employer? Clearly that doesn't work well in moments of crisis.

If we want to make sure we have enough PPE/other physical goods for another crisis perhaps we should make it ourselves.

For American manufacturing to really come back we will need to adopt the German model. They have kept it at a 25% share of their economy where ours has fallen under 10%.

They have:

-Employee representation on the board of every company
-Guaranteed vacation (often 5+ weeks) and family leave. Happy employees make better products.
-A "cooperation" between union leaders and company heads to "not spill the honeypot". Don't kill the golden goose by getting greedy. This goes for both the union bosses and company CEOs. This could be the hardest one of all in America. We think of everything as a zero sum game.

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/03/572901119/how-germany-wins-at-manufacturing-for-now

That's what I would like to see.

All three points are good; however the last two resonate most for me.
2nd point is common sense, but something many corporations have apparently forgotten.
Have seen both sides of the 3rd point. I am a manufacturing engineer (salaried, non-union) and my dad was a machine operator in a union shop, and a union steward for several years. Witnessed both sides get overly greedy, to the benefit of no one and the detriment of all.

[Blue Jays]

The good news is there is thankfully large pent-up demand for many goods and services.
A big challenge will be finding fresh workplaces for many hourly jobs that were sidelined.

[Mr. Pink]

How did this turn into “dental care is too expensive”?

Because, dental care is health care, and health care is too expensive, especially in a pandemic. There are many thousands in this country who are very fearful of going to the doctor or hospital because it may saddle them with a lifelong debt. Contrast that with the free regimen of testing in Korea. So, therefore, our economy will take much longer to recover from this debacle.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1108288786201606&id=100010614851599

[oldpotatoe]

Maybe we shouldn't tie health insurance to one's employer? Clearly that doesn't work well in moments of crisis.
I just saw a chart that I can't copy but in the US, 3.5 MILLION have lost their health care insurance due to the Virus..in the next dozen or so industrialized nations..how many?

That would be ZERO lost their health care coverage.

[cmg]

the idea that that the US can unbuckle itself from lower costs from neighboring or foreign countries will be a hard pill to pass through congress. The priority in a capitalist system is about maximum profit no mater the cost. the opioid epidemic of last year proves that.

[Ozz]

Two dentists I know are taking advantage of a plan I don’t know much about called ‘PPP’... from the little I know it’s a gov’t loan that’s mostly forgiven if you bring back your employees and pay them.
Paycheck Protection Program.....banks underwrite, govt backs it...pretty good deal for small business to retain employees....

Banks are getting buried with applications...program was rolled out without infrastructure to support the number of applications....they are coming in at about 50x the normal SBA loan rate...essentially every client wants one.

Crazy

[HenryA]

the idea that that the US can unbuckle itself from lower costs from neighboring or foreign countries will be a hard pill to pass through congress. The priority in a capitalist system is about maximum profit no mater the cost. the opioid epidemic of last year proves that.

Some are saying the virus will change our lives forever. It will be interesting to see if this is strong enough medicine to effect substantial change.

[msl819]

Some are saying the virus will change our lives forever. It will be interesting to see if this is strong enough medicine to effect substantial change.

This is the interesting point of discussion for me. With no one knowing where this all leads, no one can now for sure, but my years of experience have taught me that we don't change very easily and in order to effect real change the process will have to hurt badly enough and last long enough to do so. Not necessarily fun to think about but as has already been stated, the Great Depression lasted a decade, and that was enough to have had a lifelong effect on my grandparents and their generation.

[bigbill]

I drove up to the Vegas area yesterday to pick up a small slab of granite. The construction industry is essential. There are close to half a million people unemployed in the Las Vegas area due to the shutdown of casinos, hotels, and other support industries. Not sure how you restart an economy that relies on a steady stream of tourism without a lot of debt and risk.

[FlashUNC]

Paycheck Protection Program.....banks underwrite, govt backs it...pretty good deal for small business to retain employees....

Banks are getting buried with applications...program was rolled out with infrastructure to support the number of applications....they are coming in at about 50x the normal SBA loan rate...essentially every client wants one.

Crazy

This was absolutely not the case. Shame good businesses are going to go under because of how this program was rolled out.

[Clean39T]

I drove up to the Vegas area yesterday to pick up a small slab of granite. The construction industry is essential. There are close to half a million people unemployed in the Las Vegas area due to the shutdown of casinos, hotels, and other support industries. Not sure how you restart an economy that relies on a steady stream of tourism without a lot of debt and risk.

Exactly. I think the recovery will look very different in some areas than others.

Anybody care to guess how long it will be before 10,000 Amazon employees go to LV for a week-long convention again? Or before J6P from Missouri has the spare funds to go booze it up with his buds for a weekend?

On the other hand, I expect somewhere like Bend or Sun Valley to rebound pretty quickly - more people able to telecommute, and plenty of vacationer demand from within driving distance.

[93KgBike]

I really appreciate Tickdoc's response and his optimism. I also feel that we will see a surprising capacity to rebuild our society in the next few years.

For one thing, even with the multi-variate reasons for excess mortality and morbidity in our communities at baseline, the attrition of Covid-19 is going to leave a younger healthier group of adults in its wake - the opposite of war, which culls the young and healthy from those same communities and leaves the old and unfit behind...

The lack of trust in facts, the collapse of our responsible institutions, and the fact that two 80 year olds are vying to lead us all point to a likely intergenerational conflict of paradigms. Gen-X and younger are already shifting consumption to experiences versus accumulation.

This pandemic is one heck of an experience shaping the politics of say the 2032 presidential election.

[Mr. Pink]

Exactly. I think the recovery will look very different in some areas than others.

Anybody care to guess how long it will be before 10,000 Amazon employees go to LV for a week-long convention again? Or before J6P from Missouri has the spare funds to go booze it up with his buds for a weekend?

On the other hand, I expect somewhere like Bend or Sun Valley to rebound pretty quickly - more people able to telecommute, and plenty of vacationer demand from within driving distance.

Doubtful. This actually started in a lot of ski areas, due to the international mix of visitors. They shut down fast in Colorado and other places. Sun Valley is suffering from a high concentration of cases. They dont want you there, because they have very minimal hospital capacity, especially for stuff like Covid. Maybe some trauma (tourists on MTBs and skis), but not this.

[EDS]

I am concerned that the economic recovery from COVID-19 will only further expand the wealth gap. The top 1% (particularly those individuals whose wealth is tied more to capital gains versus salaried employees) is likely to profit from this economic turmoil in ways that will not be accessible to others.

[MikeD]

The most shocking thing I've seen is massive auto lines at food banks, already.



Remember, before this all happened, according to the Fed, 40% of Americans couldn't come up with 400 dollars cash for an emergency. Hunger can lead to civil unrest pretty quickly.


I wonder when the looting and rioting is going to start?

[Ozz]

This was absolutely not the case. Shame good businesses are going to go under because of how this program was rolled out.

oops! sorry.....typo......should be "without".....thanks for the catch!

More info: In 2019 SBA processed a total of about 60,000 loan applications...for just the the PPP program (2 weeks old?) they processed almost 800,000!

[HenryA]

A plan!

https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/knox-county-mayor-glenn-jacobs-outlines-6-week-phased-reopening-plan-from-coronavirus-shutdown/

[Dead Man]

I wonder when the looting and rioting is going to start?

soon's we get it started, comrade!

https://baranovassociates.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Sabotage.jpg

[mtechnica]

I am concerned that the economic recovery from COVID-19 will only further expand the wealth gap. The top 1% (particularly those individuals whose wealth is tied more to capital gains versus salaried employees) is likely to profit from this economic turmoil in ways that will not be accessible to others.

It’s going to. Lack of strong financial regulation allows this to happen like it did in 2008. The wealthy can buy anything they want for pennies on the dollar and wait until the economy rebounds. America doesn’t seem to have the political willpower to address the wealths gap.

[Tickdoc]

I really appreciate Tickdoc's response and his optimism. I also feel that we will see a surprising capacity to rebuild our society in the next few years.

Well that’s nice of you to say and I hope you are right.

This is not cataclysmic, not the end of the world. Sure, it’s dangerously contagious and deadly for some, but we’ll get over it. A vaccine will come eventually and life will return. Hugs and handshakes may not be as free and easy, but that’s ok. The economic ruin from shelter in place and global stoppage will resurge for most with a huge momentum, I hope.

I work in one of the most risky professions with regard to this disease spraying mouth borne aerosols all day long and even being on the bubble of risk age wise I have no fear going back to work. Show me a safer way to work to reduce my risk and I can’t wait to get back.

[sparky33]

Two dentists I know are taking advantage of a plan I don’t know much about called ‘PPP’... from the little I know it’s a gov’t loan that’s mostly forgiven if you bring back your employees and pay them.


This is a big deal. Small companies can take a sizable forgivable loan in anticipation of distress. The only trick is finding a bank that has this program in place and available to their business clients; good policy needing logistics.

[Mr. Pink]

I wonder when the looting and rioting is going to start?


You are lucky if you live in exurbia or a rural town surrounded by the top ten percent and guarded by a well funded police force. They'll be the last to go down.

[ORMojo]

Well, here is the current draft of the official CDC/FEMA "Work for America" reopening plan.

1697996870

[ColonelJLloyd]

The only trick is finding a bank that has this program in place and available to their business clients; good policy needing logistics.

Too true.

[peanutgallery]

One big problem with loan program, once your employees start collecting unemployment bennies with the $600 weekly tacked on, they're going to go feral. I believe 75% of what biz gets goes towards 8 weeks of payroll, good luck getting them back to work if they make more on the couch without health risk

[BobbyJones]

Every time something like this comes along I always wonder if this will be "the one" that brings down our very broken system. (I'm a "compassionate" capitalist by nature)

I've been surprised every time.

[93KgBike]

Now that we have started down this economic recovery path, what's the capacity of the economy to endure mistakes, failures and false-starts?

We could very well be in a similar position to Argentina.

All this quantitative easing should be coordinated with the other G20 economies.

But with the EU faltering, how long until currency instability enters the fray?

[Ozz]

Now that we have started down this economic recovery path, what's the capacity of the economy to endure mistakes, failures and false-starts?

We could very well be in a similar position to Argentina.

All this quantitative easing should be coordinated with the other G20 economies.

But with the EU faltering, how long until currency instability enters the fray?
Are we there yet? I think we are still heading down for awhile.....

Good point on the QE effect on currencies......I am not confident we ever saw the full ramifications of the 2008 quantitative easing...you just can't print money to make problems go away.

There is no free lunch......;)

[MikeD]

You are lucky if you live in exurbia or a rural town surrounded by the top ten percent and guarded by a well funded police force. They'll be the last to go down.


I forgot to mention protests, but going on in Michigan now. https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/michigan-citizens-protest-over-coronavirus-stay-home-order/https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200416/4b820ed17b3c8b555329f4eb13321484.jpg

[FlashUNC]

I forgot to mention protests, but going on in Michigan now.

Some real geniuses in that protest bunch, that's for sure.

[cloudguy]

some real geniuses in that protest bunch, that's for sure.

Freedumb!!!!!

[HenryA]

Compare and contrast:


https://news.yahoo.com/virginia-governor-orders-residents-stay-195424896.html


https://news.trust.org/item/20200415154529-qs9zg

[HenryA]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/presidential-power-is-limited-but-vast-11586988414?mod=hp_opin_pos_3

If behind paywall I have heard you can get there by a search on google.uk

“ In most federal-state disputes, the question is what happens when authorities at both levels exercise their legitimate constitutional powers at cross-purposes. Here, the president has the edge. The Constitution’s Supremacy Clause requires that when the federal government acts within its proper sphere of constitutional authority, state law and state officials must give way to the extent that federal requirements conflict with their own. Federal power encompasses a broad power to regulate the national economy. Thus although the president lacks plenary power to “restart” the economy, he has formidable authority to eliminate restraints states have imposed on certain types of critical commercial activity.”

[likebikes]

I forgot to mention protests, but going on in Michigan now. https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/michigan-citizens-protest-over-coronavirus-stay-home-order/https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200416/4b820ed17b3c8b555329f4eb13321484.jpg

more like:

https://cdn.tarck.cc/optimized/3X/e/6/e6fcac49fc76486351ca4b6de1dd88a6ed6bfcd3_2_1380x91 8.jpeg

[oldpotatoe]

Now that we have started down this economic recovery path, what's the capacity of the economy to endure mistakes, failures and false-starts?

We could very well be in a similar position to Argentina.

All this quantitative easing should be coordinated with the other G20 economies.

But with the EU faltering, how long until currency instability enters the fray?

There's a problem with that and I bet you can guess what that is..:help: