Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[AngryScientist]

OK, we had a little cool off period today on covid talk. here is a new thread for discussion.

[AngryScientist]

I'll start: My town just announced it is mandatory that all businesses that are deemed essential and can remain open have to reduce in store capacity by 50% and face covering is required for everyone.

[Blue Jays]

Covering the nose/mouth by any means seems it would likely have a net benefit.
Even if a simple cotton tee-shirt somewhat slows a sneeze, it is a good thing.

[C40_guy]

Interesting story on the local (Boston) news about New Balance designing and producing a safety mask. Seems like they're aiming for N95 compliance...

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/07/nation/new-balance-ramps-up-production-again-its-new-england-facilities-make-masks-mass-general/

Yea, I'd wear one of those.

[AngryScientist]

We were able to score an instacart Costco order that arrived sooner than we thought last night.

i swear it was like christmas morning in the house.

my new strategy is to basically go to 100% isolation for the next couple weeks. i think with our recent costco score, i will not need to visit any stores.

still running daily, it's gorgeous here. plan on some long rides this weekend.

[C40_guy]

We were able to score an instacart Costco order that arrived sooner than we thought last night.

i swear it was like christmas morning in the house.

my new strategy is to basically go to 100% isolation for the next couple weeks. i think with our recent costco score, i will not need to visit any stores.

still running daily, it's gorgeous here. plan on some long rides this weekend.

We just found a local restaurant supply wholesaler that will deliver in consumer quantities. Veggies, fruit, cheese, juice, milk, herbs, whip cream!

I scheduled an Instacart delivery a week ago for Friday night, and have been working on a WF pickup order all week...but can't find a time slot. So I keep tweaking the Instacart order...hopefully most of what I order will arrive. Then I'll try to get another slot as soon as possible...

Jockeying for delivery slots is the new video game!

Between that and watching two baby bald eagles (https://dickpritchettrealestate.com/eagle-feed.html), and my day is pretty full (plus a good amount of trail running.)

[HenryA]

Wife got 2 packs of TP today and I need a haircut something awful. The good and the bad.

[OtayBW]

Wife got 2 packs of TP today and I need a haircut something awful. The good and the bad.
I'm just waiting to see what all the ladies of my age will look like after a few more weeks of (as they tell me) not being able to get to their hairdresser......:eek:

[Ozz]

Wife got 2 packs of TP today and I need a haircut something awful. The good and the bad.
My wife cut my son's hair a couple days ago....

I should get one, but with the Work From Home situation I don't see the need. Down to shaving about once per week....showers every other day.:rolleyes:

Spouse put the kibosh on a beard.

[zap]

We purchased a trimmer and it arrived yesterday. My wife will be cutting/trimming my hair in the next few day's.

Will the haircut be :cool: or :eek:

[NHAero]

My wife doesn't like when I get "shaggy" so she went at me over the weekend with a trimmer and the shortest screen, 3mm. I gots me a racing 'do, aero!

We purchased a trimmer and it arrived yesterday. My wife will be cutting/trimming my hair in the next few day's.

Will the haircut be :cool: or :eek:

[joosttx]

My kids school’s “gym” has turned into a “hospital ward” just in case.

[ORMojo]

In addition to securing and receiving both an Instacart grocery delivery and a Costco 2nd day delivery within the past week, I put in an Amazon Pantry order this past Sunday the 5th.

When I ordered on the 5th, delivery was clearly marked as prolonged, and estimated to arrive on the 25th. That was OK - these were longer term pantry restocks.

By Monday evening the 6th the delivery estimate had been moved up to the 17th.

This morning I received notice that the full order was out for delivery, and it arrived an hour ago. Not bad.

[ORMojo]

Oregon schools are now on a distance learning only format for the rest of the school year. Sad for my kids, sad for their classmates, and sad that I won't be doing my 2-3 days/week volunteering in both classrooms until (at least) September. I miss the kids.

Teachers are packing up students' desks and belongings for parents to pick up later.

[parris]

My county just enacted an odd/even shopping schedule based on birth year.

[kevinvc]

Oregon schools are now on a distance learning only format for the rest of the school year. Sad for my kids, sad for their classmates, and sad that I won't be doing my 2-3 days/week volunteering in both classrooms until (at least) September. I miss the kids.

Teachers are packing up students' desks and belongings for parents to pick up later.

I'm in Portland as well. My daughter and foster daughter's schools are trying to do some level of on-line education, which is better than nothing. My son is a senior and the Governor's announcement today is that he is now done with high school. Any senior that was on track to graduate at the end of the last term will now graduate - no additional instruction required. It's definitely a let down missing out on so many milestones. He loves school and is going to miss his last term with all of his friends, last year of sports, and no prom or graduation ceremony.

Now with the nice weather it is going to be extremely difficult to keep people indoors. I just got back from driving to my office to grab a couple of things and there are a lot of people out there right now. Walkers, joggers, skateboarders jamming the sidewalks, most without masks or any real social distancing. It was especially hard seeing all the folks on their nice bikes headed out to Forest Park. I'm concerned that all the positive results we've seen in flattening the curve is going to be blown up over the next week.

[parris]

Kevin one of the things that I've actually done is to stay off the bike for a bit other than on the trainer. I've been walking in my neighborhood which is very open and easy to keep distance from other people that may be out.

My reason for staying off the bike is simple caution and a little bit of fear. If I go down I do NOT want to end up in an ER these days with the situation we're all in. It's a bummer because yesterday and today are pretty freaking nice.

[harlond]

Not sure whether this has come up before, but this is an interesting article:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

The tl:dr point is that COVID-19 causes hypoxia, not Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, so that ventilator settings high in pressure--appropriate when lung damage causes alveoli to not inflate--may not be right for hypoxic patients whose lungs are otherwise healthy and flexible. This is the point you may have seen Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidwell (?) make in a somewhat viral video.

[Spdntrxi]

We were able to score an instacart Costco order that arrived sooner than we thought last night.

i swear it was like christmas morning in the house.

my new strategy is to basically go to 100% isolation for the next couple weeks. i think with our recent costco score, i will not need to visit any stores.

still running daily, it's gorgeous here. plan on some long rides this weekend.

been trying to use Instacart myself... open times get taken by the time I enter CC info.. annoying. They should give you the spot and 60seconds to pay at least.

[buddybikes]

Where we are we now can get delivery of fresh fish/scallops from the dock, naturally leavened bread and fresh veggies - just order Mon and delivery Fri. So actually eating better now than before the crisis.

Essential stores 150 sq ft per person, except early AM for elderly/first responders 300 sq ft per person.

[AngryScientist]

My county just enacted an odd/even shopping schedule based on birth year.

thats very interesting. i think it's a smart move. i think we will see this expanded more and more.

[kevinvc]

Kevin one of the things that I've actually done is to stay off the bike for a bit other than on the trainer. I've been walking in my neighborhood which is very open and easy to keep distance from other people that may be out.

My reason for staying off the bike is simple caution and a little bit of fear. If I go down I do NOT want to end up in an ER these days with the situation we're all in. It's a bummer because yesterday and today are pretty freaking nice.

I hear you. I thought about riding today instead of driving, but there are very limited routes to my office and the only one good for riding is very heavily used. There would be absolutely no way to keep a safe distance from others. Walking in my neighborhood is kind of dicey too. I went for a short walk this morning and had a father and son skateboard by giving me only about a foot of clearance. I would have been upset under normal conditions just from a general safety standpoint, but it's kind of mind-boggling under current circumstances.

[Bruce K]

Grocery run today. Got almost everything we needed. Good to go until early next week.

People were respecting distance (mostly) and all but 1 or 2 with some type of covering.

The district where I teach has turned the HS field house into a Covid ward for homeless.

Still teach a 2 hour “class” in the AM and a 90 minute “class” in the PM. Kids have 3 assignments per week in Math and ELA and one each in Science, Social Studies, and Gym, Art, Music, or World Language (rotates). They can drop into my @ckassroom” with questions or to go over work.

Yesterday I had 5 kids hang out for the whole 90 minutes just to talk and connect.

The district is recruiting volunteers as the demand for meals is increasing. We are over 1200 per day and climbing.

One of the ELA teachers had their 8th graders write what they will tell their grandkids about the year 2020. Very interesting reads. Some funny, some very poignant.

BK

[AngryScientist]

The district where I teach has turned the HS field house into a Covid ward for homeless.


Now this sounds pretty scary. who is staffing this?

[Tony T]

My county just enacted an odd/even shopping schedule based on birth year.

Bad idea. Just one more line for contact with one more person to validate the birth year.
Better to limit occupancy.
My town has also limited shopping to one person per household (with exceptions, i.e., single parent with young kids)

[AngryScientist]

Bad idea. Just one more line for contact with one more person to validate the birth year.


can you re-phrase that? i am not sure i understand what you mean.

[William]

Both kids are home from school and will finish out thir respective terms from home. Luckily our daughter's school announced it right before she was to fly back from Spring break on the other side of the continent.

Things at the grocery store have evened out on no more real shortages other than skim milk. Most people are freindly and respecting distance though still occasionally see some folks who don't get it.

As far as covering up, still trying to get some masks but I figure this is better than nothing when I have to go out.:)







W.

[Clean39T]

Now with the nice weather it is going to be extremely difficult to keep people indoors. I just got back from driving to my office to grab a couple of things and there are a lot of people out there right now. Walkers, joggers, skateboarders jamming the sidewalks, most without masks or any real social distancing. It was especially hard seeing all the folks on their nice bikes headed out to Forest Park. I'm concerned that all the positive results we've seen in flattening the curve is going to be blown up over the next week.

Agreed. I'm in that tall apartment building by the Burnside Bridge, so I can see people going over the bridge and circling the waterfront - tons of joggers, casual cyclists (i.e., not essential services commuters), and people hugging, taking pics, out for Sunday strolls. It blows me away.

[Tony T]

can you re-phrase that? i am not sure i understand what you mean.

If shopping is limited to odd even based on birth year, how will that work? Unless it’s on the honors system, someone at the door will have to check drivers licenses.

[Tony T]

Masks.
I agree with the CDC recommendation, but do people realize that, except for N95 masks, that they are protecting other people from themselves?

[palincss]

My reason for staying off the bike is simple caution and a little bit of fear. If I go down I do NOT want to end up in an ER these days with the situation we're all in. It's a bummer because yesterday and today are pretty freaking nice.

Don't kid yourself into thinking walking is all that safe. People trip on sidewalk irregularities and fall, hurting themselves in the process, all the time. My wife broke her wrist when she tripped walking back from the mailbox a few years ago; a friend tripped while on a walk earlier this year and broke her shoulder; and once I was walking next to a woman who stepped off a curb into a pothole and broke her ankle. Have you quit driving out of simple caution and a little bit of fear? People are hurt or killed in car crashes all the time. And watch out for bathtubs and showere stalls: those wet tile floors are awfully slippery!

[makoti]

thats very interesting. i think it's a smart move. i think we will see this expanded more and more.

I've been in the grocery store maybe 3 times since this started. Never more than 8 people in there shopping. Not sure odd/even is needed.

[makoti]

Masks.
I agree with the CDC recommendation, but do people realize that, except for N95 masks, that they are protecting other people from themselves?

I'm betting they don't.

[JStonebarger]

Covering the nose/mouth by any means seems it would likely have a net benefit.
Even if a simple cotton tee-shirt somewhat slows a sneeze, it is a good thing.

Actually I suspect that people are at greater risk when covering their faces.

It's true that a mask will lessen the aerosol you shed. Especially when you're sick. That's why WHO and CDC always recommend them when you're ill. That's why we set a box out every flu season.

But... pull your mask off to sip your coffee? You need a new one. Touch the mask itself? You've contaminated it or it's contaminated you. Reach right over it to rub your eyes? Ugh!

Patients in the (non-COVID-19 related) clinic I work in are offered masks when they enter. As a result they seem to touch their faces more than ever.

Lots of attention to aerosol contagion lately. Sure, sneeze hard enough and the virus will shoot 27 feet and float for hours. But as WHO keeps saying we need to worry about what's actually happening, not "what's possible."

COVID-19 is overwhelmingly spread through droplets. YOUR DIRTY HANDS TO YOUR EYES, NOSE, AND MOUTH.

Concern about aerosol misses the mark, and if anything masks seem to give people a false sense of security. It's like the folks who wear gloves, then touch everything with them including their face.

At work and in public I now often wear a cloth mask out of courtesy to others. But it makes me want to scream WASH YOUR HANDS and QUIT TOUCHING YOUR FACE!

(Blue Jays, not responding to you exactly, but to this whole trend. Hmph!)

[AngryScientist]

Agreed. I'm in that tall apartment building by the Burnside Bridge, so I can see people going over the bridge and circling the waterfront - tons of joggers, casual cyclists (i.e., not essential services commuters), and people hugging, taking pics, out for Sunday strolls. It blows me away.

what is the current status of Portland homeless camps?

[pdmtong]

If shopping is limited to odd even based on birth year, how will that work? Unless it’s on the honors system, someone at the door will have to check drivers licenses.
No one will be checking - it's work together honor system. Watch how the senior hours work next time you line up in the regular line. No one is checking licenses.

[Clean39T]

what is the current status of Portland homeless camps?

I can't comment on that without teetering on the edge of highly divisive comments - let's just say it's not good..

[benb]

https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08

Article about a Dutch study on safe distance. They’re saying for cycling 20m is more realistic. Any activity where you can end up in the slipstream of the person in front ends up needing much bigger separation.

I had a great ride today. Didn’t come across a single rider going in my direction so very safe. The roads and sidewalks were surprisingly empty today as it was one of the nicest days in the past month.

[Tony T]

No one will be checking - it's work together honor system. Watch how the senior hours work next time you line up in the regular line. No one is checking licenses.

I don’t think people will abide by it, Seniors different as it’s obvious if a 35 yr old uses Sr hours, and the Whole Foods near me has someone checking at the door, as well as keeping capacity at 50% (and police in my area are spot checking stores for capacity compliance).

Regarding Sr Hrs, I stopped going the Hr early as there were more people shopping at that time then later in the afternoon

[Tony T]

Actually I suspect that people are at greater risk when covering their faces.

It's true that a mask will lessen the aerosol you shed. Especially when you're sick. That's why WHO and CDC always recommend them when you're ill. That's why we set a box out every flu season.

But... pull your mask off to sip your coffee? You need a new one. Touch the mask itself? You've contaminated it or it's contaminated you. Reach right over it to rub your eyes? Ugh!

Patients in the (non-COVID-19 related) clinic I work in are offered masks when they enter. As a result they seem to touch their faces more than ever.

Lots of attention to aerosol contagion lately. Sure, sneeze hard enough and the virus will shoot 27 feet and float for hours. But as WHO keeps saying we need to worry about what's actually happening, not "what's possible."

COVID-19 is overwhelmingly spread through droplets. YOUR DIRTY HANDS TO YOUR EYES, NOSE, AND MOUTH.

Concern about aerosol misses the mark, and if anything masks seem to give people a false sense of security. It's like the folks who wear gloves, then touch everything with them including their face.

At work and in public I now often wear a cloth mask out of courtesy to others. But it makes me want to scream WASH YOUR HANDS and QUIT TOUCHING YOUR FACE!


I agree with that. I don’t use a mask if I’m certain I won’t be within 10 feet of another person.

[sjbraun]

I've been an RN for over 30 years. Nurses are a tremendously hard-working, dedicated group. So when nurses refuse to take their patient assignments, things are really bad. Nurses at Detroit hospital refused to accept a patient assignment that included 26 patients, 10 of whom were on ventilators, for two RNs to share. Normal staffing for ventilated patients in an ICU setting is no more than two patients per RN.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/detroit-nurses-sinai-grace-coronavirus/index.html

[weisan]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-wuhan-china-lockdown-12621054

For our own reflection.

[JStonebarger]

Nurses at Detroit hospital refused to accept a patient assignment that included 26 patients, 10 of whom were on ventilators, for two RNs to share. Normal staffing for ventilated patients in an ICU setting is no more than two patients per RN.

That's insane.

[sjbraun]

What's insane? That they refused the assignment or that anyone in leadership at that hospital thought the assignment was in any way feasible?

[kevinvc]

what is the current status of Portland homeless camps?

I'll try to stick to facts and not insert opinions. Today they announced that two people who are homeless have tested positive, but no details on where they had been staying or if they were related to each other. The City has set up a few hand-washing stations and porta-potties in areas where there are a lot of campers. This has been controversial since it also has attracted more tents to some of these areas. They have converted a couple of hotels into temporary shelters.

There are a lot of people in our City that, at best, live in tents. Before COVID19 there were insufficient services to keep them fed, sheltered, and provide access to health care or even basic sanitation. With the outbreak, it's even more dire. Conditions are there for an absolutely devastating outbreak to sweep through these populations and kill many.

[XXtwindad]

Great way to see the (kind of) in-laws. Every pandemic has its silver lining.

[JStonebarger]

What's insane? That they refused the assignment or that anyone in leadership at that hospital thought the assignment was in any way feasible?

Sorry. It's an insane assignment. Ventilators don't run themselves. At that rate they might as well be DIY.

[parris]

Angry and Tony you both bring up good points about the odd/even shopping days that are being put in place locally. I don't know how it could be enforced. I'm just guessing but I think that the rule will have the same effect as many other rules. People that follow rules will follow this one. People that don't won't be stopped or if they are stopped they'll leave a grocery cart full of stuff at the checkout.

One of the other things that I think about with the odd/even shopping days is that locally the highway departments of several of the towns enact alternate side of the street parking from early December through early April for snow removal. This has happened longer than I've lived in the county yet there are still people that screw it up. It's as if it doesn't register that "gee look at all these empty spaces on that side of the street maybe somethings up".

Palincss I get that there are risks to anything. I may understand that better than some but by no means all members on this board. I'm fortunate that given a VERY low traffic volume and wide decent streets in my neighborhood I stand a substantially better chance of coming home vs a trip to the ER than some other activities. This is also part of the reason why I haven't been to the range in a while, or done some of the more involved home improvements that are on tap.

Given my career and exposure level not riding or participating in some activities is a pretty simple choice for me to make. Others chose differently which is their business.

[Tony T]

“We’re here for you” has now replaced “Thoughts and Prayers”
I, for one, am thrilled that all these companies trying to sell me something are there for me. :rolleyes:
https://www.google.com/search?q=we%27re%20here%20for%20you&tbm=isch

[dbh]

Managed to snag our first online grocery delivery window. Whole week's worth of groceries for the family stolen off of our porch in 20 minutes. That one hurt.

[AngryScientist]

parris - i think i can speak for the forum and say we wish you the best of luck, strength and everything else. my absolute respect to those on the front lines.

[pbarry]

“We’re here for you” has now replaced “Thoughts and Prayers”
I, for one, am thrilled that all these companies trying to sell me something are there for me. :rolleyes:
https://www.google.com/search?q=we%27re%20here%20for%20you&tbm=isch

I've unsubscribed from a number of mailing lists in the last two weeks: BBB, Lucky Brand, PI, more. Surely they are hurting but not a good time to be shilling, jmo. Will buy from them again, just don't want the extra noise right now. One exception was Chrome as they have their Get 20/Give 20 promotion with the Give 20 going to charity. That I can get behind.

[AngryScientist]

Managed to snag our first online grocery delivery window. Whole week's worth of groceries for the family stolen off of our porch in 20 minutes. That one hurt.

no!

say it isnt so. i hope it's a mis-understanding.

if that's true - death to the scumbags who steal during this time.

[parris]

Angry thank you. The REAL heros in this are our healthcare people. THOSE people are fdealing with a Herculean task.

[seanile]

Someone is doing studies on misting someone with your spit droplets.
Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you can not walk/run/bike close to each other. (https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08)

[Spdntrxi]

Managed to snag our first online grocery delivery window. Whole week's worth of groceries for the family stolen off of our porch in 20 minutes. That one hurt.


wow the low lifes..

I just got my first delivery about an hour ago.. Some issues with loose produce, like for example I paid 18 bucks for 4 organic fuji apples, but other than that I'm hoping Instacart eventually shows me a "real" receipt. The apples where supposed to be 4 (2lb bags).. so I expected 8-9 apples for that price.

Just finished the decon process..but at least I stayed away from the supermarket

[gasman]

Wow-
I suspected this might be the case which is why I've been riding solo the last few weeks. I've been lucky to have good weather and empty country roads to ride. I see just as many solo riders as I do cars. I haven't seen unrelated bikers for about 2 weeks when I saw a group of 6 riding in a paceline :no:

dbh- what scumbags to steal groceries off your porch !!

We've been getting our groceries delivered the last two weeks. My wife has had to drop picking out her own produce but it's been fine. Just washing every single piece of fruit is a hassle .

[gasman]

Sorry. It's an insane assignment. Ventilators don't run themselves. At that rate they might as well be DIY.

I agree. One nurse per two ventilated, ill patients at a maximum. Anything more is substandard care IMHO. But maybe they don't have enough nurses, if not hire locums and pay them really well. Heck, they should all receive hazard pay.

[Tony T]

...
We've been getting our groceries delivered the last two weeks. My wife has had to drop picking out her own produce but it's been fine. Just washing every single piece of fruit is a hassle .

Should be washing fruit anyway.

[Spdntrxi]

Should be washing fruit anyway.
agreed

[OtayBW]

I just got an e-mail from my urologist who wants me to schedule my annual appt. As his office is only seeing urgent care patients right now, he wants me to set up an appointment for a teleprostate check......:confused: :eek: :hello:

[gasman]

Should be washing fruit anyway.

We do but we wash even the bananas with lots of soap and water now. I've always washed fruit but have been less meticulous for years since we can get good organic produce so I haven't needed to worry about residual pesticides/herbicides etc

[rallizes]

We do but we wash even the bananas with lots of soap and water now. I've always washed fruit but have been less meticulous for years since we can get good organic produce so I haven't needed to worry about residual pesticides/herbicides etc

u wot m8?

[AngryScientist]

I just got an e-mail from my urologist who wants me to schedule my annual appt. As his office is only seeing urgent care patients right now, he wants me to set up an appointment for a teleprostate check......:confused: :eek: :hello:

dude, dont do it. gloves are in short supply!

seriously though, that is irresponsible and a money grab given where we are in time. a standard prostate exam is something that can wait a few months.

[mtechnica]

I just got an e-mail from my urologist who wants me to schedule my annual appt. As his office is only seeing urgent care patients right now, he wants me to set up an appointment for a teleprostate check......:confused: :eek: :hello:

Don't forget the bottle of wine and some candles to get the mood right.

[OtayBW]

dude, dont do it. gloves are in short supply!

seriously though, that is irresponsible and a money grab given where we are in time. a standard prostate exam is something that can wait a few months.
HAR! Yeah, I know. I've actually been 'on the bubble' with the PSA for a while, but it's no big whoop for now. Besides, it's the telenoscopy that really has me worried! :eek: :eek: :eek:

[tuxbailey]

Managed to snag our first online grocery delivery window. Whole week's worth of groceries for the family stolen off of our porch in 20 minutes. That one hurt.

That really suck. It is not even about the money but the scarcity of delivery window.

Did they not text you about arrival time? Perhaps it is time to invest in a door cam?

[dustyrider]

Well I ventured out of the house today for some essentials.
My observations in Western Colorado:

Most cashiers were wearing gloves. I saw a few touching their faces and one even rubbed her nose before handing the receipt to a customer. None of them changed gloves in between customers. Reminded me of when the food service industry implement gloves back in my high school years.

Some employees were wearing masks that I assume they'll wear for their entire shift and then again the next day. They were mostly the upper 50s early 60s age group, and the masks were of the DIY variety.

Most customers that were wearing masks, of all kinds, were wearing them around their chins. I guess this is so they could talk without something obstructing their voices, but several of the masks looked well worn so maybe the elastic wasn't able to keep them in place. The only people who seemed to consistently keep their faces covered were the ones who looked like they intend to use the anonymity to their advantage.

There were still plenty of 2 and 3 people groups sharing the immediate vicinity with each other talking about the current state of things. Both customers and employees. I even got to overhear a guy talk about the conspiracy that this whole thing is just a political scam because a certain group failed at a certain impeachment trial. (trying to avoid politics for the forum's sake). I had thought this mindset was just a meme, but I guess I'm not really surprised the folks around here believe in it.

The places I went had made attempts to stagger the influx of people by creating deliberate lines and spacing with various materials. I went at a time when I knew people weren't going to be there, and when I could get in, so I didn't see how those lines actually worked.

I had to go by the park that is a gathering place for the homeless during the day, and life seemed pretty typical except there seemed to be a higher percentage of them with some kind of mask on their faces. This might just be because there are so many people in one single location though... I don't know? There were still varying groups huddled up together in varying states of consciousness. Loads of jaywalking and signs asking for money from motorists.

There seemed to be little to no police presence anywhere I went. Which struck me as odd since there were so few cars on the roadways. I had kind of expected to see more police cruisers out and about, if I saw anyone at all on the roads, but that wasn't the case today.

There were plenty of cyclists, and runners, and quite a few people of all ages using the track and field at the college and high school. But with gyms closed I had kind of expected that. It's been real nice here the last few days.

All in all, I think we haven't seen the kind of numbers the rest of the country is seeing so people aren't really concerned. I also think the rural mentality of the area plays a large factor into people's reactions, but I don't want to get the thread closed with too much speculation.

It has been interesting to see the school district's response, or lack thereof in my opinion. They're practicing good-faith remote learning and handing out food to students, but they're basically just following the guidelines of the state and seemingly not wanting to make any independent decisions. Prom is cancelled, but they're still saying school might be back in session after the governor's stay at home directive ends, which seems pretty unrealistic. Quite a few districts in the state have already stated no students are to return this semester, and the local college is planning an online commencement. All the schools share the same stadium for graduations, and our school district is saying they'll decide what to do about senior graduation in a couple of weeks. Essentially waiting for the state guidelines so they don't make any decisions. The only kids I saw were those being pushed around in strollers or carried by their parents. Which didn't surprise me any since Valorant just dropped yesterday, and I'm sure most teenagers are glued to Twitch, or keeping up with their virtual chores in Animal Crossing.

Anyways I haven't had much to contribute to these threads since I have been sheltering in place for awhile now. I've been in the middle of a house addition and remodel for so long I was kind of happy to just stay home and get work done.

Stay safe and stay sane everyone!

[ORMojo]

been trying to use Instacart myself... open times get taken by the time I enter CC info.. annoying. They should give you the spot and 60seconds to pay at least.

Here's a hint I use. As soon as you open Instacart and see an available delivery time from your store, quickly shop for ONE item, add it to your cart, and then check out. That's the quickest way to secure your delivery slot. After checking out you can then go back to shop for the rest of your items and add them to your just-completed order. In Instacart you can add items to an existing order all the way up until 1 hour before the start of your delivery window.

[pdmtong]

Here's a hint I use. As soon as you open Instacart and see an available delivery time from your store, quickly shop for ONE item, add it to your cart, and then check out. That's the quickest way to secure your delivery slot. After checking out you can then go back to shop for the rest of your items and add them to your just-completed order. In Instacart you can add items to an existing order all the way up until 1 hour before the start of your delivery window.

^ this

[oldpotatoe]

Covering the nose/mouth by any means seems it would likely have a net benefit.
Even if a simple cotton tee-shirt somewhat slows a sneeze, it is a good thing.

Son told me of a grading system that measures the measures taken to mitigate the virus..social distancing, staying at home, minimizing any store visits, masks, etc..Boulder, gets a 'B', Broomfield(where son lives), gets a 'C', Denver a 'B'..still slow learners around here..neighbor rents a house from a buddy of mine, kinda a snake ranch, 4-5 20/30 somethings come and go all day..'hang out', yak, tickle and scratch...great vacation for them...:eek:

Grand daughters are online school for the rest of the year. Oldest son working from home now with a couple of days of field work(code enforcement in Denver, yup, telling business' that aren't essential to close). Daughter-in-law works new mom/labor/delivery..still pretty safe and her hospital isn't being crushed(BIG Denver hospital, St Joseph's). Not gonna be able to hug any of them until a vaccine...ugh..

Both daughters(7yo, birthday yesterday..that was a tough one-kinda a drive-by Birthday, 8yo, birthday next month) are being very grown up about this mess.
I'm going to reward them with new bikes. They are out-growing theirs anyway. Gonna get a new 26inch for older(Cleary Scout), re-paint older one(Cleary Meercat-24inch wheels) for younger one..

Gonna give away the 20 inch one to somebody in need...

This really blows..everyday my wife and I worry about getting sick, then worry about the kids...BUT we are lightyears luckier than a lot..income security for us all, nobody sick(except youngest son, we think-no test, who recovered but still don't know)...sufficient supplies..Our community has a small infection rate..about 220 tested positive, probably off by a factor of 10 or so but still small. 330,000 population..Boulder county. Pretty good citizens in this city/county in terms of the things that will mitigate/minimize this gig. Pretty wealthy and 'soft' 'target' tho, worry about that.

BTW-stopped watching the news, or any news items that pop up on youtube..just makes me angry...Think globally(or not at all), act locally.
YT is amazing..everything from VW repair, lawn mower repair, big ship recovery/salvage, 2 kids in Tennessee who are making an apocalypse truck, river 'magnet' fisherman, river car recovery..some very interesting stuff on YT..

Life goes on, stay safe.

[NHAero]

I'm getting two packages from UPS today, including the Casati I bought on eBay. The bike was packed April 1st. Once I open the box, can I assume the packing materials and bike are safe to handle after eight days in shipment?

[Elefantino]

6.6 million new unemployment claims; 16.5 million total in the last two-plus weeks.

Amazing and sad.

[Elefantino]

Son told me of a grading system that measures the measures taken to mitigate the virus..social distancing, staying at home, minimizing any store visits, masks, etc..Boulder, gets a 'B', Broomfield(where son lives), gets a 'C', Denver a 'B'..still slow learners around here..neighbor rents a house from a buddy of mine, kinda a snake ranch, 4-5 20/30 somethings come and go all day..'hang out', yak, tickle and scratch...great vacation for them...:eek:

Grand daughters are online school for the rest of the year. Oldest son working from home now with a couple of days of field work(code enforcement in Denver, yup, telling business' that aren't essential to close). Daughter-in-law works new mom/labor/delivery..still pretty safe and her hospital isn't being crushed(BIG Denver hospital, St Joseph's). Not gonna be able to hug any of them until a vaccine...ugh..

Both daughters(7yo, birthday yesterday..that was a tough one-kinda a drive-by Birthday, 8yo, birthday next month) are being very grown up about this mess.
I'm going to reward them with new bikes. They are out-growing theirs anyway. Gonna get a new 26inch for older(Cleary Scout), re-paint older one(Cleary Meercat-24inch wheels) for younger one..

Gonna give away the 20 inch one to somebody in need...

This really blows..everyday my wife and I worry about getting sick, then worry about the kids...BUT we are lightyears luckier than a lot..income security for us all, nobody sick(except youngest son, we think-no test, who recovered but still don't know)...sufficient supplies..Our community has a small infection rate..about 220 tested positive, probably off by a factor of 10 or so but still small. 330,000 population..Boulder county. Pretty good citizens in this city/county in terms of the things that will mitigate/minimize this gig. Pretty wealthy and 'soft' 'target' tho, worry about that.

BTW-stopped watching the news, or any news items that pop up on youtube..just makes me angry...Think globally(or not at all), act locally.
YT is amazing..everything from VW repair, lawn mower repair, big ship recovery/salvage, 2 kids in Tennessee who are making an apocalypse truck, river 'magnet' fisherman, river car recovery..some very interesting stuff on YT..

Life goes on, stay safe.
Hope you can revisit the Disney trip!

[tuscanyswe]

I'm getting two packages from UPS today, including the Casati I bought on eBay. The bike was packed April 1st. Once I open the box, can I assume the packing materials and bike are safe to handle after eight days in shipment?

Nope unless you are sure the ups crew are wearing gloves at all times..

[vincenz]

If anyone is still doing group rides, something to consider:

http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Distancing%20v20_White_Paper.pdf

Effectively, you can catch aerosols from someone over 50 ft ahead of you when cycling.

[oldpotatoe]

I'm getting two packages from UPS today, including the Casati I bought on eBay. The bike was packed April 1st. Once I open the box, can I assume the packing materials and bike are safe to handle after eight days in shipment?

NO, since handled by lots of middle men and women....I leave all the stuff I get from UPS.FedEX/USPS in the garage for 24 hours. Put them there with gloves, then spray with alcohol...

[AngryScientist]

I'm getting two packages from UPS today, including the Casati I bought on eBay. The bike was packed April 1st. Once I open the box, can I assume the packing materials and bike are safe to handle after eight days in shipment?

i wouldnt worry one moment about it.

[NHAero]

Are you saying that what is INSIDE the sealed box is contaminated from the OUTSIDE being handled?

NO, since handled by lots of middle men and women....I leave all the stuff I get from UPS.FedEX/USPS in the garage for 24 hours. Put them there with gloves, then spray with alcohol...

[Bruce K]

Nick -

I am not sure who us staffing it. I think a combo of people from the hospital, district food service, and shelter staff.

They told band kids to come a retrieve their instruments. Probably a combination of needing them to practice at home, not having to clean/maintain/be responsible for them, but it gets us thinking we may not be going back until September.

BK

[AngryScientist]

Nick -

I am not sure who us staffing it. I think a combo of people from the hospital, district food service, and shelter staff.

They told band kids to come a retrieve their instruments. Probably a combination of needing them to practice at home, not having to clean/maintain/be responsible for them, but it gets us thinking we may not be going back until September.

BK

Yea, I seriously doubt any kids are going back to school before the summer. Particularly younger kids that can not do social distancing, and you're just not going to get elementary school kids to effectively wear masks.

[oldpotatoe]

Are you saying that what is INSIDE the sealed box is contaminated from the OUTSIDE being handled?

No, the outside...Not sure how you handle the inside w/o handling the outside.

[Irishgirl]

Son told me of a grading system that measures the measures taken to mitigate the virus..social distancing, staying at home, minimizing any store visits, masks, etc..Boulder, gets a 'B', Broomfield(where son lives), gets a 'C', Denver a 'B'..still slow learners around here..neighbor rents a house from a buddy of mine, kinda a snake ranch, 4-5 20/30 somethings come and go all day..'hang out', yak, tickle and scratch...great vacation for them...:eek:

Grand daughters are online school for the rest of the year. Oldest son working from home now with a couple of days of field work(code enforcement in Denver, yup, telling business' that aren't essential to close). Daughter-in-law works new mom/labor/delivery..still pretty safe and her hospital isn't being crushed(BIG Denver hospital, St Joseph's). Not gonna be able to hug any of them until a vaccine...ugh..

Both daughters(7yo, birthday yesterday..that was a tough one-kinda a drive-by Birthday, 8yo, birthday next month) are being very grown up about this mess.
I'm going to reward them with new bikes. They are out-growing theirs anyway. Gonna get a new 26inch for older(Cleary Scout), re-paint older one(Cleary Meercat-24inch wheels) for younger one..

Gonna give away the 20 inch one to somebody in need...

This really blows..everyday my wife and I worry about getting sick, then worry about the kids...BUT we are lightyears luckier than a lot..income security for us all, nobody sick(except youngest son, we think-no test, who recovered but still don't know)...sufficient supplies..Our community has a small infection rate..about 220 tested positive, probably off by a factor of 10 or so but still small. 330,000 population..Boulder county. Pretty good citizens in this city/county in terms of the things that will mitigate/minimize this gig. Pretty wealthy and 'soft' 'target' tho, worry about that.

BTW-stopped watching the news, or any news items that pop up on youtube..just makes me angry...Think globally(or not at all), act locally.
YT is amazing..everything from VW repair, lawn mower repair, big ship recovery/salvage, 2 kids in Tennessee who are making an apocalypse truck, river 'magnet' fisherman, river car recovery..some very interesting stuff on YT..

Life goes on, stay safe.


OP (hopefully you are ok with the shorthand)[emoji4]

First bdays for little people right now really stinks...two of my three have bdays this month....and really amazed by the resilience of my now 14 yo. She’s adaptable and grounded...and thankful her mommy got her a new cross bike last year (secretly I’m developing one that may like riding to join me).

This past weekend I ran down to help my mom - 11 hours round trip - drove it in one day...picked up groceries for her as she’s in a remote area outside of St Louis and doesn’t have access to grocery delivery. Her health isn’t the best and I think about this...especially when I left and struggled with wanting to hug her and not take any chances...thankfully I packed a box of Kleenex for the tearful drive home.

Some on my team are close to my parents age and yesterday a guy on my team shared how his son an ER Doc didn’t want him traveling on a plane...I relied that if you were my dad I’d insist the same.

We have one that has the virus - unconfirmed because he’s tried to get the test and the supply is limited and not available in his area.

I don’t watch the news... it was a forced decision on me a few years back when someone made the decision to cancel cable...I’ve adapted and now that I have the choice I don’t really miss watching the news. I’ve been reading and not all COVID topics.

And thinking about what one will do when some of the restrictions are lifted is good head space...and being in Boulder is helpful too [emoji4]. My list gets longer daily.

Oh ...a towing business in my area dies bday banner drive bys...I’ve not seen it but sounds kinda fun and definitely different.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OtayBW]

Don't forget the bottle of wine and some candles to get the mood right.Haha! Skipping the wine. Going for a nice anejo and a lava lamp! :)

[makoti]

Yea, I seriously doubt any kids are going back to school before the summer. Particularly younger kids that can not do social distancing, and you're just not going to get elementary school kids to effectively wear masks.

Here in the DC area, school years are done.

[Jaybee]

Here in the DC area, school years are done.

Same in the Denver metro. It’s the smart decision.

[NHAero]

I wore gloves to bring it in and open the box. Folded the box tops back out of the way, then removed gloves and pulled bike bits and packing from box.

Hard for me to imagine that after 8 days cross country that the innards are worrisome.

OP, it's a 90s Casati with all Campy 10s, even the wheels are Protons. So I hope you'll understand :-)

No, the outside...Not sure how you handle the inside w/o handling the outside.

[Spdntrxi]

Are you saying that what is INSIDE the sealed box is contaminated from the OUTSIDE being handled?

no he is assuming both are contaminated.. as he should.

[OtayBW]

If anyone is still doing group rides, something to consider:

http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Distancing%20v20_White_Paper.pdf

Effectively, you can catch aerosols from someone over 50 ft ahead of you when cycling.
Nice link. Thanks!
One thing that is surprising: They base the size (length) of the exposure/slipstream cloud on the size of the microdroplets which are shown to range from 40 um to 200 um in size. That's YUGE! One-fifth the size of millimeter? That's pretty big....

[NHAero]

Sorry for being dense - are you saying materials that haven't been sanitized stay potentially contaminated with COVID 19 indefinitely? If so, I'd appreciate a link to that info. Eight days seems outside any duration I have read about thus far.

no he is assuming both are contaminated.. as he should.

[C40_guy]

If anyone is still doing group rides, something to consider:

http://www.urbanphysics.net/Social%20Distancing%20v20_White_Paper.pdf

Effectively, you can catch aerosols from someone over 50 ft ahead of you when cycling.

Just as important to consider the slipstream when encountering someone going in the opposite direction on a MUP. Each of you eases to the edge of the path or trail and then resumes your position in the middle. There may be a 50' long area *behind* that cyclist you encountered with aerosols to be avoided.

Not quite sure how to do this, been thinking about it while out on my trail runs.

[benb]

Most of the news articles about packages are saying the early concerns were overblown even if there is some risk.

Open the boxes, get the boxes out to the recycling in the garage, wash your hands, etc..

The early scares were based on petri dish studies with a lot of virus.

It's not like the UPS guy is in full on infection & spitting a big fat wad on your package and you're immediately sticking your hand in it in and rubbing it in your nose.

Packages are still way less risky than going to the grocery store or going on a group ride.

[benb]

Just as important to consider the slipstream when encountering someone going in the opposite direction on a MUP. Each of you eases to the edge of the path or trail and then resumes your position in the middle. There may be a 50' long area *behind* that cyclist you encountered with aerosols to be avoided.

Not quite sure how to do this, been thinking about it while out on my trail runs.

Just stay off the trails if you want to be really safe.

If you read that study/article if you're traveling opposite directions on a MUP you shouldn't be directly behind that other user. You're each riding on the right side of the trail and have your 5-6 foot separation horizontally. If he's sick he's leaving a 50ft trail of virus behind him it doesn't necessarily blow crosswise across the trail.

Overtaking another cyclist who is slower than you sounds like it's the big risk. They're saying you should move out to "on your right" 50ft before you are on the other cyclists wheel, and not pull in front of them till you have a 50ft gap in case you're the one infected.

All of this is way easier to do sticking to the roads. The roads are deserted here, the MUP/MUT is more crowded than usual because all the non-cyclists are suddenly interested in riding their bikes and all the non-runners are suddenly interested in running and all the non-walkers are all of a sudden interested in walking.. and they all go to the MUP/MUT "cause it's so much safer". :rolleyes:

Actually for legit MTB the trails are mostly deserted here too. Cause the non-cyclists are not going to go down a rocky/rooty real MTB trail that has 20% up/down grades.

It is all weird cause it feels like the regular cycling crowd is taking it easy.

[NHAero]

When the weather has been nicer, the MUP has more and more people. I think even on my shortie rides on work days, I'm going to switch to doing that ride on the road instead. Some people don't even move over. There were two teenage girls running side by side coming towards me and making no move to get to the right and go single file. I pulled off the path into the dirt and stopped. They gave me big smiles as they ran by!

Just as important to consider the slipstream when encountering someone going in the opposite direction on a MUP. Each of you eases to the edge of the path or trail and then resumes your position in the middle. There may be a 50' long area *behind* that cyclist you encountered with aerosols to be avoided.

Not quite sure how to do this, been thinking about it while out on my trail runs.

[NHAero]

Makes sense to me. to handle the package itself as if it may have some contamination on the exterior. Almost everything sent to me on Martha's Vineyard takes several days - even Priority Mail. Hard to imagine the contents being a problem.

Most of the news articles about packages are saying the early concerns were overblown even if there is some risk.

Open the boxes, get the boxes out to the recycling in the garage, wash your hands, etc..

The early scares were based on petri dish studies with a lot of virus.

It's not like the UPS guy is in full on infection & spitting a big fat wad on your package and you're immediately sticking your hand in it in and rubbing it in your nose.

Packages are still way less risky than going to the grocery store or going on a group ride.

[C40_guy]

There were two teenage girls running side by side coming towards me and making no move to get to the right and go single file. I pulled off the path into the dirt and stopped. They gave me big smiles as they ran by!

You've still got it! :)

[NHAero]

I'm sure that it was the bright yellow-green Nagasawa they were appreciating.

You've still got it! :)

[palincss]

Here's a hint I use. As soon as you open Instacart and see an available delivery time from your store, quickly shop for ONE item, add it to your cart, and then check out. That's the quickest way to secure your delivery slot. After checking out you can then go back to shop for the rest of your items and add them to your just-completed order. In Instacart you can add items to an existing order all the way up until 1 hour before the start of your delivery window.

Let me add, for Giant Peapod curbside pickup: never having used this before, just discovered you don't actually reserve your time slot until you check out and pay. With Peapod you can add to the order up to 7 am of the day of pickup.

This is actually pretty exciting, because until the other day all curbside pickup had been suspended due to the Covid-19 emergency. And, as has been the case since this all began, there are exactly no available delivery time slots, ever, for as far into the future as the calendar extends.

Giant's convenient senior shopping hours are from 6 am - 7 am. These days, the only time I see 6 am is when I get up to pee. I hate it that shopping for groceries has turned into a game of You Bet Your Life...

[sjbraun]

When the weather has been nicer, the MUP has more and more people. I think even on my shortie rides on work days, I'm going to switch to doing that ride on the road instead. Some people don't even move over. There were two teenage girls running side by side coming towards me and making no move to get to the right and go single file. I pulled off the path into the dirt and stopped. They gave me big smiles as they ran by!

There are way too many people on our MUP, the Loop in Tucson. Even on the newer sections that are a full 16-20 feet wide, people don't know how to distance themselves; cyclists riding two abreast, groups of walkers taking the entire oncoming lane. Its just a mess that leaves me feeling much safer riding on the road.

[C40_guy]

This is actually pretty exciting, because until the other day all curbside pickup had been suspended due to the Covid-19 emergency. And, as has been the case since this all began, there are exactly no available delivery time slots, ever, for as far into the future as the calendar extends.

I've been tending a WF pickup order since Sunday, and checking regularly for pickup slots. Started using the IOS app yesterday, and mostly wore out my battery this morning. One slot opened, then closed before I could close the deal. Another opened 20 minutes later, and I've got a pickup scheduled this afternoon. 45 minute drive to pick up the groceries...closest WF offering pickup.

Once we figure out what we actually got, I'll cull the Instacart delivery order back. It was originally scheduled for tomorrow evening, but may slip as late as Tuesday. Curious to see if we'll actually get any of the TP, paper towels and dishwasher soap as requested....

We're not going to starve...just trying to maintain relatively normal/healthy eating habits.

[fmradio516]

I've been tending a WF pickup order since Sunday, and checking regularly for pickup slots. Started using the IOS app yesterday, and mostly wore out my battery this morning. One slot opened, then closed before I could close the deal. Another opened 20 minutes later, and I've got a pickup scheduled this afternoon. 45 minute drive to pick up the groceries...closest WF offering pickup.

Once we figure out what we actually got, I'll cull the Instacart delivery order back. It was originally scheduled for tomorrow evening, but may slip as late as Tuesday. Curious to see if we'll actually get any of the TP, paper towels and dishwasher soap as requested....

We're not going to starve...just trying to maintain relatively normal/healthy eating habits.

Just talking to my mom about this. She said its like trying to get through on ticketmaster..

Havent ordered anything myself, just being very careful when I go to the store; though my local Trader Joes AND Whole Foods have announced at least one employee(s) are showing symptoms. The TJs is closed closed. Not sure for how long, maybe for a deep clean.

[Spdntrxi]

Sorry for being dense - are you saying materials that haven't been sanitized stay potentially contaminated with COVID 19 indefinitely? If so, I'd appreciate a link to that info. Eight days seems outside any duration I have read about thus far.

if it took 8 days travel time.. you should be fine (insides anyways)

[mdeth1313]

Or you could wear one of these anti-virus masks. I hear the federal govt might push this as an alternative to widespread testing!

[Spdntrxi]

Or you could wear one of these anti-virus masks. I hear the federal govt might push this as an alternative to widespread testing!

someone needs to tell her they have gone to subscribe format and she needs the latest version for Covid-19

[jchasse]

This is a bit of a tangent, and sorry if it's been covered, but what's the recommended process for dealing with fresh produce from the grocery store (whether you picked it up or had it delivered)?

Just don't worry about it? I saw a recommendation from an immunologist to spray everything with a 1% hydrogen peroxide solution, let sit for a few, then rinse. But I'm wondering what other opinions are.

[exapkib]

We've started bleaching our produce, following the protocol that we use when we are living abroad.

Fill the sink (or a large bowl) with water, add a cap of bleach, let the produce soak, rinse with fresh water.

Don't do this with greens that are going to soak up the bleach, obviously. We mostly avoid those items when we're abroad, and just pray a little bit more before eating them here. :)

[AngryScientist]

well, you definitely dont have to worry about anything you're going to cook.

a thorough rinse on the rest is good enough IMO.

[fmradio516]

edited

[jchasse]

cant you just leave the new groceries in a bag in the fridge for 2 days before touching them again?

We've been wiping things that get peeled (oranges, bananas, avocados) with a bleach solution and rinsing. But we've been doing what you suggested with greens etc.

We got an Instacart delivery today by quite a character. Guy probably in his 40-50s, longish hair in a giant Dodge Ram. Wearing a suit and a cowboy hat.

Unpacking stuff, I wondered why we got a bag of dried dates?? Later I found a bag of pecans that we didn't order. Then I figured it out - we had ordered Great Grains cereal with raisins, dates and pecans. Apparently it was out of stock so the the Dude got creative with a box of Raisin Bran Crunch, a bag of dates and some pecans. :cool:

[fmradio516]

We got an Instacart delivery today by quite a character. Guy probably in his 40-50s, longish hair in a giant Dodge Ram. Wearing a suit and a cowboy hat.

Unpacking stuff, I wondered why we got a bag of dried dates?? Later I found a bag of pecans that we didn't order. Then I figured it out - we had ordered Great Grains cereal with rasins, dates and pecans. Apparently it was out of stock so the the Dude got creative with a box of Rasin Bran Crunch, a bag of dates and some pecans. :cool:

:hello::bike:

[unterhausen]

Boris Johnson is out of ICU, which gives me hope for the rest of us

[tuxbailey]

For the last weeks or we just leave the vegetables in the garage for couple days since it is not very warm around here yet.

[jchasse]

:hello::bike:

For some reason, the whole encounter made my morning...

[rallizes]

Boris Johnson is out of ICU, which gives me hope for the rest of us

I am curious what his deductible is

[paredown]

I am curious what his deductible is

Probably meant in jest, but it is worth noting that anyone who is moving in Boris's circle doesn't use National Health except for emergencies--they are all going to expensive Harley Street physicians...

National Health is for the hoi polloi :banana:

[rallizes]

Probably meant in jest, but it is worth noting that anyone who is moving in Boris's circle doesn't use National Health except for emergencies--they are all going to expensive Harley Street physicians...

National Health is for the hoi polloi :banana:

ha yes in jest indeed

perhaps unterhausen is hopeful because he is also a prime minister

[Black Dog]

Nope unless you are sure the ups crew are wearing gloves at all times..

What difference will them wearing gloves make? They are touching a million surfaces with those gloves. The contents of his box will be safe. The outside should be assumed to be contaminated and handled accordingly. Let is sit for 24 hours and any viral particles on the cardboard will be attenuated. The packing tape cant be wiped down with disinfectant and then it will be safe.

[Black Dog]

I wore gloves to bring it in and open the box. Folded the box tops back out of the way, then removed gloves and pulled bike bits and packing from box.

Hard for me to imagine that after 8 days cross country that the innards are worrisome.

OP, it's a 90s Casati with all Campy 10s, even the wheels are Protons. So I hope you'll understand :-)

You did this safely. :banana:

[Black Dog]

Boris Johnson is out of ICU, which gives me hope for the rest of us

Except that he is in charge of the UK's response again. :eek:

[Black Dog]

cant you just leave the new groceries in a bag in the fridge for 2 days before touching them again?

Not really, the cooler temperatures may slow the degradation of the virus down.

[tuxbailey]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-is-ushering-in-a-new-wave-of-racially-motivated-attacks-warns-intelligence-bulletin-144659729.html

Not a surprise that at the crisis prolongs, this will be the expected outcome.

[jimcav]

Not really, the cooler temperatures may slow the degradation of the virus down.

be careful with such advice. There isn't great data out there on SARS-COV2. But another coronavirus, MERS, is stable for YEARS when frozen and can easily live 3 days in a fridge.

In contrast, it is readily killed above 70C (158F), so any cooking process you use will kill it.

see page 2:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200221-sitrep-32-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=4802d089_2

[akelman]

I think there may have been a discussion here about how Sweden's approach to the pandemic potentially seemed admirable? I say without a hint of anything other than the deepest regret—I have several very close friends in Stockholm—that Sweden is now a disaster: passed India in its number of confirmed cases, has an incredibly high mortality rate among its confirmed cases, and is only now banning gatherings of 50 or more people. Again, it appears from all of the evidence that social distancing early rather than late is the key to keep the curve flat and save a lot of lives.

Speaking of social distancing, here's an incredibly effective PSA:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaGrubbsPhD/status/1248317963566006272?s=20

[fmradio516]

be careful with such advice. There isn't great data out there on SARS-COV2. But another coronavirus, MERS, is stable for YEARS when frozen and can easily live 3 days in a fridge.

In contrast, it is readily killed above 70C (158F), so any cooking process you use will kill it.

see page 2:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200221-sitrep-32-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=4802d089_2

wow thanks for sharing. ill edit my post

[AngryScientist]

This is a tough article that drives home the reality of what is happening to some folks right now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/business/economy/coronavirus-food-banks.html

A forumite smarter and more compassionate than i rose my awareness of those in need, and i plan to make a donation to my local food bank.

those of you who work for big companies, i urge you to look into your company's charitable donation match policy and if you can kick in a few bucks to a local good cause and have a corporate match, consider it.

[tuscanyswe]

I think there may have been a discussion here about how Sweden's approach to the pandemic potentially seemed admirable? I say without a hint of anything other than the deepest regret—I have several very close friends in Stockholm—that Sweden is now a disaster: passed India in its number of confirmed cases, has an incredibly high mortality rate among its confirmed cases, and is only now banning gatherings of 50 or more people. Again, it appears from all of the evidence that social distancing early rather than late is the key to keep the curve flat and save a lot of lives.

Speaking of social distancing, here's an incredibly effective PSA:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaGrubbsPhD/status/1248317963566006272?s=20

Sorry but this just isent so. Unless everyone else but those who actually live here know something we dont...

Stockholm where i live (fyi) is the worst hit city in sweden by far and its believed Our R number is currently at 1 or close to it. We have reached a plateau since a few days. Our hosptials are not full we still have 20% icu capabilities Left currently.

We are also the best (or at least the top) country in the World with statistisk on Our citizens so no death here from covid Will go unreported like mot other nations. We also only test the really sick in the hosptials which ofcourse Will give u a High procentage of death compared to the testing quantities.

Sometimes its better to not say anything if u r not sure.

[NHAero]

Our employee owned small business donates a fixed amount of our profits annually. We've just given most of the rest of the year's budget to the Food Pantry.

This is a tough article that drives home the reality of what is happening to some folks right now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/business/economy/coronavirus-food-banks.html

A forumite smarter and more compassionate than i rose my awareness of those in need, and i plan to make a donation to my local food bank.

those of you who work for big companies, i urge you to look into your company's charitable donation match policy and if you can kick in a few bucks to a local good cause and have a corporate match, consider it.

[cloudguy]

We also only test the really sick in the hosptials which ofcourse Will give u a High procentage of death compared to testas..

If you only test the sick, how do you know what the R0 number is or how fast the disease is spreading? Sweden is literally whistling past the graveyard.

[NHAero]

Johns Hopkins map shows 9,141 cases in Sweden and 6,725 cases in India, and 793 deaths (8.7%) and 226 deaths respectively (3.4%). My sister's BIL lives in Sweden, is positive with high fever, coughing, and general exhaustion, at home, and kids still going to school. We're gobsmacked.


Sorry but this just isent so. Unless everyone else but those who actually live here know something we dont...

Stockholm where i live (fyi) is the worst hit city in sweden by far and its believed Our R number is currently at 1 or close to it. We have reached a plateau since a few days. Our hosptials are not full we still have 20% i u capabilities Left currently.

We are also the best (or at least the top) country in the World with statistisk on Our citizens so no death here from covid Will go unreported like mot other nations. We also only test the really sick in the hosptials which ofcourse Will give u a High procentage of death compared to testas..

Sometimes its better to not say anything if u r not sure.

[Ozz]

...
A forumite smarter and more compassionate than i rose my awareness of those in need, and i plan to make a donation to my local food bank.
....
For sure....my wife and I were talking about this last night. Doing the food bank donation for sure.

We are also going to talk with manager of the Starbucks located in our local hospital to see how we could pick up coffee tab for the nurses some day next week. Not sure what our options will be, but it seems the least we can do.

[Jaybee]

Johns Hopkins map shows 9,141 cases in Sweden and 6,725 cases in India, and 793 deaths (8.7%) and 226 deaths respectively (3.4%). My sister's BIL lives in Sweden, is positive with high fever, coughing, and general exhaustion, at home, and kids still going to school. We're gobsmacked.

The raw numbers from India may be underreported here, but that doesn't diminish the original point that Sweden looks a lot worse today then it did a week ago.

Quick aggressive response remains the clear way to go. South Korea is the gold standard here.

[akelman]

Johns Hopkins map shows 9,141 cases in Sweden and 6,725 cases in India, and 793 deaths (8.7%) and 226 deaths respectively (3.4%). My sister's BIL lives in Sweden, is positive with high fever, coughing, and general exhaustion, at home, and kids still going to school. We're gobsmacked.

Yup, the numbers are the numbers. Sweden's leadership, beloved though it may be, appears to have failed massively in fighting Covid-19. I wish your sister's loved ones the best. My friends in Stockholm are locked down and, as of this week, refusing to send their kids to school. They fear it's probably too late, but they're taking matters into their own hands and hoping for the best.

[tuscanyswe]

If you only test the sick, how do you know what the R0 number is or how fast the disease is spreading? Sweden is literally whistling past the graveyard.

They do sample testing among Chosen group. They are looking at flow to hosptitals to get The r number but its like they say constantly moving but believed to be around 1 currently in stockholm.

And its funny u who know nothing of Our situation other than statistics on a spread sheet tells me who live here that we are doomed and heading for the graveyard. I just hear our experts Daily breifings saying its going as good as we could hope for thus far but obviously not out of the Woods by far.

I get ppl think its weird and foolish not close schools and not have harder rules but thats one thing. A totally differnt one to claim we are a dissaster zone with no facts Esp since its just not true.

[akelman]

Sometimes its better to not say anything if u r not sure.

Wise words.

[Tony T]

.

[Spdntrxi]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-is-ushering-in-a-new-wave-of-racially-motivated-attacks-warns-intelligence-bulletin-144659729.html

Not a surprise that at the crisis prolongs, this will be the expected outcome.

yahoo articles are terrible... this one is no different.

[93KgBike]

They do sample testing among Chosen group. They are looking at flow to hosptitals to get The r number but its like they say constantly moving but believed to be around 1 currently in stockholm.

And its funny u who know nothing of Our situation other than statistics on a spread sheet tells me who live here that we are doomed and heading for the graveyard. I just hear our experts Daily breifings saying its going as good as we could hope for thus far but obviously not out of the Woods by far.

I get ppl think its weird and foolish not close schools and not have harder rules but thats one thing. A totally differnt one to claim we are a dissaster zone with no facts Esp since its just not true.

I don't understand the value of you chastising anyone. We all read the same news and the same reported health statistics.

Sweden's outbreak is not unique (nor is it's non/response).

There is no community surveillance there either.

We all wish you well, and will continue to discuss places where the rich and the young believe a pandemic might be less serious than those directly working on the issue.

I live in one, too.

[jimcav]

magical thinking is frustrating. Unless they actually publish some data, it is inexplicable to speculate the R0 is 1 (or near it). No country on the globe has anywhere near that without EXTREME physical isolation. Having every kid under 16 in school all these weeks, they are kidding themselves.

I will pray that their healthcare system and a lucky preponderance of genetic ACE2 alleles that DON'T favor the virus intersect to limit the severity of illness, but their numbers will just climb until they lock it down in line with other nations. Infection is indiscriminate, but the severity of illness is dependent on things, some we know, some we don't, and hopefully Sweden will get lucky on the factors that contribute to the severity of all the illness they have let spread.

good news is that even late actions have results, as I tried to get out there from the study I linked in the closing days of the last closed thread. I'm not going to hunt for it again.

[tuscanyswe]

magical thinking is frustrating. Unless they actually publish some data, it is inexplicable to speculate the R0 is 1 (or near it). No country on the globe has anywhere near that without EXTREME physical isolation. Having every kid under 16 in school all these weeks, they are kidding themselves.

I will pray that their healthcare system and a lucky preponderance of genetic ACE2 alleles that DON'T favor the virus intersect to limit the severity of illness, but their numbers will just climb until they lock it down in line with other nations. Infection is indiscriminate, but the severity of illness is dependent on things, some we know, some we don't, and hopefully Sweden will get lucky on the factors that contribute to the severity of all the illness they have let spread.

good news is that even late actions have results, as I tried to get out there from the study I linked in the closing days of the last closed thread. I'm not going to hunt for it again.

They present data every day. And The numbers are not climbing. Hence they believe its currently at around 1in stockholm

[akelman]

They present data every day. And The numbers are not climbing. Hence they believe its currently at around 1in stockholm

Someone I know once said, "Sometimes its better to not say anything if u r not sure." Those seemed like wise words when I heard them.

[Tony T]

Someone I know once said, "Sometimes its better to not say anything if u r not sure." Those seemed like wise words when I heard them.

“Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt”

[tuscanyswe]

Someone I know once said, "Sometimes its better to not say anything if u r not sure." Those seemed like wise words when I heard them.

Im not sure what u r getting at specifically?
U are aware im taking about the r value and not the total numbers of infected yes?

Are u saying that they did not present data and said that the r value was believed to be around 1 for Stockholm?

[akelman]

Let me be absolutely clear. We know of one surefire way to contain this pandemic: social distancing. There are places that right-wing leaders have done a good job with this: Ohio. There are places that left-wing leaders have done a good job with this: California. There are places that right-wing leaders that have done a terrible job with this: the United Kingdom. There are places that left-wing leaders have done a terrible job with this: New York City.

The Swedish government is failing to do all it can to contain the spread of Covid-19. No matter what people believe, no matter what people might want to believe, that isn't in any doubt. It's a tragedy.

[tuscanyswe]

Let me be absolutely clear. We know of one surefire way to contain this pandemic: social distancing. There are places that right-wing leaders have done a good job with this: Ohio. There are places that left-wing leaders have done a good job with this: California. There are places that right-wing leaders that have done a terrible job with this: the United Kingdom. There are places that left-wing leaders have done a terrible job with this: New York City.

The Swedish government is failing to do all it can to contain the spread of Covid-19. No matter what people believe, no matter what people might want to believe, that isn't in any doubt. It's a tragedy.

The swedish goverment has choosen a differnt path than many countries but Lots off ppl seem to think they have done nothing and we are living ordinarie lives just because we dont have new laws in place. That is not the case..

U were presenting a picture that sweden was allrdy doomed and allrdy passed india (which i can only assume were to make it look worse that such a small country like sweden can be worse than india) which only has to do with How many tests u make and How effeciant yr goverment is to compile causes for deaths and in what phase of the outbrake a nation is in. Those numbers mean very little in them selves.

I was making the case that swedens healthcare are still a head of the game in terms of capacity. Stockholm is not a warzone were ppl are desparate like u made it sound. Ofc There are ppl who are scared and other are suffering that happens every where.. But Stockholm is not new York which u made it sound like imo.

Now maybe swedens tactic thus far Will prove to be to leniant. Then they have said they Will act if numbers tell us the current plan is not enough. I have no doubt they would if they Saw a need.

But as i said they present data every day and yday the said they believed the r value was 1 for Stockholm. Do u have any data to support that this is not so? Or do u just go by total cases and deaths?

[jimcav]

They present data every day. And The numbers are not climbing. Hence they believe its currently at around 1in stockholm

arcgis.com data clearly shows you are still on a significant growth curve, not a plateau. So the R is obviously >>1. Are you talking about hospitalization #s?

You've already exceeded the total projected deaths (793) for 10 April (ie TOMORROW) predicted by the UPDATED IMHE model. Being above that projection is NOT an indicator of good anything.

I'm not sure why you seem to take this personally. Please post some data if you can, so we can see what they are telling you, because what data is being given to the tracking systems shows a bad story. Not the worst story by any means, but certainly worse than it needed to be.

[tuscanyswe]

arcgis.com data clearly shows you are still on a significant growth curve, not a plateau. So the R is obviously >>1. Are you talking about hospitalization #s?

You've already exceeded the total projected deaths (793) for 10 April (ie TOMORROW) predicted by the UPDATED IMHE model. Being above that projection is NOT an indicator of good anything.

I'm not sure why you seem to take this personally. Please post some data if you can, so we can see what they are telling you, because what data is being given to the tracking systems shows a bad story. Not the worst story by any means, but certainly worse than it needed to be.

Climbing In sweden yes and Stockholm no. Or thats at least what they are saying here yday.

I can see if i can dig up the info that They show when they say this. Its a video but maybe i can find something else. But now is 245 in the morning.

I dont think i react out of it beeing personal but maybe a little. just a very differnt picture beeing painted by ppl living in the USA about the city i live in which feels weird more than anything. Nobody here that i meet or talk to think its going to hell but on the forum in a differnt part of the World they apparently know that we are doomed. That Is weird.

[tuxbailey]

Climbing In sweden yes and Stockholm no. Or thats at least what they are saying here yday.

I can see if i can dig up the info that They show when they say this. Its a video but maybe i can find something else. But now is 245 in the morning.

I dont think i react out of it beeing personal but maybe a little. just a very differnt picture beeing painted by ppl living in the USA about the city i live in which feels weird more than anything. Nobody here that i meet or talk to think its going to hell but on the forum in a differnt part of the World they apparently know that we are doomed. That Is weird.

I know it is weird. But just look back how the US was a few weeks ago vs. now (an even in this forum) and one can see a difference in attitude.

People are not wishing bad thing to happen in Sweden, but they hope that Sweden can change course before it is too late.

[tuscanyswe]

I know it is weird. But just look back how the US was a few weeks ago vs. now (an even in this forum) and one can see a difference in attitude.

People are not wishing bad thing to happen in Sweden, but they hope that Sweden can change course before it is too late.

Ofc not its not like i think ppl on paceline is evil ;)

The first post i reacted to painted a picture i dont agree with at all which is what i was trying to debunk. There is no feeling of panic or dread or out of control anything here currently. Maybe thats a bad thing.. Time Will tell.

I trust the swedish experts to do the right thing tho.
Thats the difference, swedes in general dont have a lot of reason not to trust the goverment. They have said they Will close schools down and keep ppl from going to work when that time has come. I trust that they know what they are doing

[HenryA]

It is hard not to require submission to the current orthodoxy. Sometimes a little grace might be a better choice.

[oldpotatoe]

If you only test the sick, how do you know what the R0 number is or how fast the disease is spreading? Sweden is literally whistling past the graveyard.

Of course..short of a vaccine, the ONLY way to really mitigate this and approach any kind of normalcy is to test everybody, more than once, then isolate.

"we have tested more people than any place else in the world'..dopey thinking, what a surprise..1.8 million tests, yup, a lot but only 1/2 of 1% of the US population.
but their numbers will just climb until they lock it down in line with other nations.
Nine governors have refused to issue statewide mandates that people stay at home, but local leaders have taken action in some of those states. North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas are the only states where no one is under a stay-at-home order.
Fauci on Monday credited the governors of Nebraska and Iowa for what steps they have taken to slow the virus, but David Leeson, a retiree in Winterset, Iowa, said he cannot understand why restrictions that make sense in most of the country have not been imposed in his home state.

"I think it's idiotic," Leeson said. "The only way this is going to work is to have every state under the same rules."
Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

I'll let ya guess the political affiliation of each of these governors..................

[Bruce K]

Please take a deep breath guys and ease up a bit.

We understand these are trying times for all but we need to try and stay on a somewhat even keel.

When we don’t this topic “takes a time out” and we try again in a few hours or so.

Everyone stay safe.

BK

[paredown]

I found this site again today--"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine"--I think they may be getting Gates money?

Anyways their projections look interesting--showing that we may be at peak deaths/day--with a caution--"shaded area shows uncertainty"


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[OtayBW]

For sure....my wife and I were talking about this last night. Doing the food bank donation for sure.

We are also going to talk with manager of the Starbucks located in our local hospital to see how we could pick up coffee tab for the nurses some day next week. Not sure what our options will be, but it seems the least we can do.That's a nice idea. Sometimes a simple gesture goes a long way....

[colker]

If this thing travelled from China to Italy and the whole of Europe, USA and latin america on the wings of globalized commerce w/ fabrication concentrated in China we may have an unnavoidable lesson on the dangers of our current model.

[Irishgirl]

If this thing travelled from China to Italy and the whole of Europe, USA and latin america on the wings of globalized commerce w/ fabrication concentrated in China we may have an unnavoidable lesson on the dangers of our current model.


Possibly more on-shoring or rather re-shoring


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Spdntrxi]

If this thing travelled from China to Italy and the whole of Europe, USA and latin america on the wings of globalized commerce w/ fabrication concentrated in China we may have an unnavoidable lesson on the dangers of our current model.

yep when you can get half way around the world in half a day... it does not take much anymore.

[colker]

yep when you can get half way around the world in half a day... it does not take much anymore.

I believe the problem is not the ease of travel but the fatc all the planet´s fabrication is in one place where culture and health conditions are so distant to us. It all works well untill it doesn´t.

[verticaldoug]

I believe the problem is not the ease of travel but the fatc all the planet´s fabrication is in one place where culture and health conditions are so distant to us. It all works well untill it doesn´t.

maybe we finally realize we live in the same fishbowl, so we should keep the water clean.

doesn't matter if the siamese fighting fish don't like the guppies, poisoning the water kills all the fish in the bowl.

[colker]

maybe we finally realize we live in the same fishbowl, so we should keep the water clean.

doesn't matter if the siamese fighting fish don't like the guppies, poisoning the water kills all the fish in the bowl.


We have been trying to convince everybody of following one way for all it´s been a long time and it never works out. Maybe the possible way is not to centralize everything in one big market, one big solution for all.

[jchasse]

I found this site again today--"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine"--I think they may be getting Gates money?

Anyways their projections look interesting--showing that we may be at peak deaths/day--with a caution--"shaded area shows uncertainty"


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Here's the info by state (scroll down to the bottom for full state list)

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

[OtayBW]

maybe we finally realize we live in the same fishbowl, so we should keep the water clean.

doesn't matter if the siamese fighting fish don't like the guppies, poisoning the water kills all the fish in the bowl.
Don't hold your breath. This is but one manifestation of that situation. On many levels, we are the only species on the planet that seems intent on destroying its nest.

[Black Dog]

They present data every day. And The numbers are not climbing. Hence they believe its currently at around 1in stockholm

Without wide spread testing the numbers will not climb until the curve steepens and you see the very sick accrue in large numbers. If the decisions are being made on the data from testing under these circumstances then they are planing for the past not the present.

[tuscanyswe]

Without wide spread testing the numbers will not climb until the curve steepens and you see the very sick accrue in large numbers. If the decisions are being made on the data from testing under these circumstances then they are planing for the past not the present.

Im petty sure they realize they would need data to make assumptions and calculations.. These are ppl with more knowledge than this forum.

I can understand that the information that ppl are reading in the news, that sweden is still open etc, sounds scary and stupid. They are not true, life is very different here than normal and they are doing what they think is tbe best response for our population. Every situation and society is not the same.
There are ofc reason for the experts to do what they are doing here.

It may prove that this course was not the best but to suggest a nation like Sweden is sailing blind hoping for the best is again naive. This is not the case.
And that trump say we are hoping to achieve herd immunity or similar, that this is our strategy Did he called it "flocken" or similar? Its not true, he is just talking about stuff he knows nothing of again.

All in all its going very close to what they have been expecting from the start. The one thing that they say is a problem is that we have failed to protect the elderly as good as we hoped. We dont live with generations here at all so a very big part of our elder stay in retirement homes and the virus has unfortunately been able to spread into these homes more than what they were hoping for and this has resulted in more deaths than had these been better protected. They do not have a good reason for the spread to have found its way here more so than in similar countries like norway denmark finland but they dont believe it is because of the difference in measures to contain the virus in large out in the society. They have been trying to look at norway for instance to see what they have been doing differently to protect their elderly but its not clear at this point. This could ofc be found later to inpart be because of a more open society but they did not think so last i heard. It is however regretful just the same :(

[kevinvc]

Since it's the internet and everyone's an expert, I feel comfortable sharing my bleak opinion. We're likely to see numbers drop overall in the US in another month and the economy will re-open. There will be a moderate second wave, but there will be enough capacity in the medical system to absorb it.

This fall there will be a big resurgence, compounded by the start of the annual flu season. I expect the rate of spread and number of severely impacted will swamp our ability to effectively treat and manage them. But there's no way that it will be possible to do another economic shutdown. Working people won't have recovered from what's happening now and it would be complete non-starter politically with the election in November.

I think this winter is going to be a bigger public health disaster than we're currently experiencing. The two biggest wildcards in this are 1) if scientists can find a somewhat effective treatment, and 2) if people can become re-infected. This second one seems unlikely since the virus doesn't seem to be mutating much, but if it does, we're toast. The political and economic collapse will not be recoverable even after a vaccine is developed. Whatever society emerges will be very different from what we have now.

[XXtwindad]

Since it's the internet and everyone's an expert, I feel comfortable sharing my bleak opinion. We're likely to see numbers drop overall in the US in another month and the economy will re-open. There will be a moderate second wave, but there will be enough capacity in the medical system to absorb it.

This fall there will be a big resurgence, compounded by the start of the annual flu season. I expect the rate of spread and number of severely impacted will swamp our ability to effectively treat and manage them. But there's no way that it will be possible to do another economic shutdown. Working people won't have recovered from what's happening now and it would be complete non-starter politically with the election in November.

I think this winter is going to be a bigger public health disaster than we're currently experiencing. The two biggest wildcards in this are 1) if scientists can find a somewhat effective treatment, and 2) if people can become re-infected. This second one seems unlikely since the virus doesn't seem to be mutating much, but if it does, we're toast. The political and economic collapse will not be recoverable even after a vaccine is developed. Whatever society emerges will be very different from what we have now.

Bleak, but realistic. Everyone is focused on the virus itself. But not on the rot that allowed it to flourish. The virus itself gives me very little worry, frankly. The potential social unrest attached to it makes me very, very nervous. And perhaps a little bit optimistic. Strange times indeed.

[buddybikes]

Here's the info by state (scroll down to the bottom for full state list)

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

Interesting but looked at my state RI: Cumulative deaths: 105 - 3,458
so I would view that as a big ??????

[mg2ride]

….And perhaps a little bit optimistic....

Here's to hoping I completely misunderstand your meaning behind this.

[XXtwindad]

Here's to hoping I completely misunderstand your meaning behind this.

Don't know if you did or not. But lots of the "old ways" of doing things need to be reexamined, at the very least.

[jimcav]

THIS:
These are ppl with more knowledge than this forum.

VERSUS
[QUOTE=tuscanyswe;2693669] unfortunately been able to spread into these homes more than what they were hoping for and this has resulted in more deaths than had these been better protected. They do not have a good reason for the spread to have found its way here more so than in similar countries like norway denmark finland but they dont believe it is because of the difference in measures to contain the virus in large out in the society. They have been trying to look at norway for instance to see what they have been doing differently to protect their elderly but its not clear at this point. (

Those two above are at odds, and don't make any sense (unless they locked down any and all visitors to those elderly homes, and allowed no staff with children there...)

What they are saying, it is simply inexplicable. ALL data is super clear that anywhere they allow people, regardless of age, to physically be near one another (factory, ship, school, restaurant, church whatever), it has spread.

Once it gets seeded, it just takes a certain number of serial intervals (time between the links in the chain of transmission) for it to grow to the point where it is obvious. And with estimated 30-50% asymptomatic or so mildly symptomatic as to not care, coupled with the lag to infection, lag to symptoms, lag to needing care, then sadly lag to death: by the time there are groups with "higher" rates of sickness or death than magical thinking hoped, well it is late in the game. Not too late entirely, but it is then worse than it needed to be.

'Worse than necessary' is all I've been saying. I don't know what moral/economic/social calculus Sweden used to make decisions, those reasons aren't clear from anything I've read. I will continue to hope the healthcare system there isn't overwhelmed as that will make it so much worse.

[jimcav]

Interesting but looked at my state RI: Cumulative deaths: 105 - 3,458
so I would view that as a big ??????

against the model prediction. If you end up under 10 deaths today(10 April) (assuming no significant lag in reporting deaths) then it shows your mitigation efforts like physical distancing are working and/or it hadn't penetrated very far into the community.

Given proximity to NY, I think if the # dying each day is lower than the model predicted, then it is the efforts you all are making that is making a difference

[tuscanyswe]

THIS:
[QUOTE=tuscanyswe;2693669] These are ppl with more knowledge than this forum.

VERSUS


Those two above are at odds, and don't make any sense (unless they locked down any and all visitors to those elderly homes, and allowed no staff with children there...)

What they are saying, it is simply inexplicable. ALL data is super clear that anywhere they allow people, regardless of age, to physically be near one another (factory, ship, school, restaurant, church whatever), it has spread.

Once it gets seeded, it just takes a certain number of serial intervals (time between the links in the chain of transmission) for it to grow to the point where it is obvious. And with estimated 30-50% asymptomatic or so mildly symptomatic as to not care, coupled with the lag to infection, lag to symptoms, lag to needing care, then sadly lag to death: by the time there are groups with "higher" rates of sickness or death than magical thinking hoped, well it is late in the game. Not too late entirely, but it is then worse than it needed to be.

'Worse than necessary' is all I've been saying. I don't know what moral/economic/social calculus Sweden used to make decisions, those reasons aren't clear from anything I've read. I will continue to hope the healthcare system there isn't overwhelmed as that will make it so much worse.

I dont see how those are in odds. Are you saying that if the paceline was in charge of swedish healthcare we would be in a better place right now? I certainly dont think so.

I have never said i believed that we could not have saved another life if we all locked ourself in the closet. This has always been obvious to everyone and is still the case everywere around the world. If they tighten the restrictions even more even in the US they will save more lives at least at first.

I was objecting to the descripton in the post that sweden was a dissaster. This was simply not the case and still is not. Its just beeing highlighted as such because we are not doing exactly the same as everybody else is doing at this point in time.

[mdeth1313]

[QUOTE=jimcav;2693788]THIS:


I dont see how those are in odds. Are you saying that if the paceline was in charge of swedish healthcare we would be in a better place right now? I certainly dont think so.

I have never said i believed that we could not have saved another life if we all locked ourself in the closet. This has always been obvious to everyone and is still the case everywere around the world. If they tighten the restrictions even more even in the US they will save more lives at least at first.

I was objecting to the descripton in the post that sweden was a dissaster. This was simply not the case and still is not. Its just beeing highlighted as such because we are not doing what everybody else is doing at this point in time.

Well, I might be the person who mentioned Sweden was a disaster. Just to clarify, those are the words my friend (who lives in Stockholm) used to describe it. Someone who IS living there as well. I guess it's just like over here. Different observations as to how things are going.



Switching gears - does anyone have any thoughts on the endgame for this, now that the president seems to think we don't need anymore testing?

Will he be swayed by scientists or will people start going out and we get a second wave? (or something in between)

[OtayBW]

Sweden has a very liberal pandemic policy which is being discussed (sic) here, but I'm wondering why comparisons are not made more frequently with the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, France, the UK, or Italy whose mortality rates are higher than Sweden's. What am I missing here?

[JStonebarger]

Sweden has a very liberal pandemic policy which is being discussed (sic) here, but I'm wondering why comparisons are not made more frequently with the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, France, the UK, or Italy whose mortality rates are higher than Sweden's. What am I missing here?


France already peaked. Its death toll is projected at just above Sweden's, though France has over 6 times the population. And Sweden isn't projected to peak for nearly a month now.

What should we compare?

[OtayBW]

France already peaked. Its death toll is projected at just above Sweden's, though France has over 6 times the population. And Sweden isn't projected to peak for nearly a month now.

What should we compare?Point taken about the peak. That said, Belgium and the UK seem to far from peaking and the mortality rates that I'm citing are as a % of the infections - not population normalized. Still, while I personally view it as being dumb (sorry) not to invoke the very thing (the only thing) that we know can mitigate the problem, I'm wondering if lack of a shut down is really the main thing contributing to their problem....

[colker]

France already peaked. Its death toll is projected at just above Sweden's, though France has over 6 times the population. And Sweden isn't projected to peak for nearly a month now.

What should we compare?


There is a component being missed in this discussion: the capacity of each country´s health system to treat those w/ severe symptoms. As crude and cold as it may seem the point of quarantine and isolation has more to do w/ preserving the health struture to collapse than save lives. If Sweden´s icu´s occupation rates are not reaching a saturation point they can keep their social life happening and working force employed.
China (wu han region) and Italy(northern) shut down; they could not treat anyone anymore. That´s the apocalyptical tone of this thing: it crumbled entire countries. BIg powerfull economies.
I believe or at least hope scientists find medicines to combat the symptoms and prevent deaths but the contagious capacity of the virus means it´s nearly impossible to prevent contamination unless you follow extreme hygiene measures.
This is a turning point. We are going through huge trauma. The political consequences are not cleared yet. There is no way to go back to anything social or economical. I hope science regains prestige and religious fundamentalism recedes after this and i hope liberal democratic values regain prestige as well. Both science and democracy have suffered sever blows lately. The pandemia will change everything.

[Tony T]

Switching gears - does anyone have any thoughts on the endgame for this, now that the president seems to think we don't need anymore testing?

Will he be swayed by scientists or will people start going out and we get a second wave? (or something in between)

Can the Federal Government overrule State Orders?
Connecticut just extended their Stay At Home 6 weeks to May 20th.

[JStonebarger]

There is a component being missed in this discussion: the capacity of each country´s health system to treat those w/ severe symptoms.

I did wonder about that when Sweden's lack of a shut down started to make the news. I know enough Norwegians to assume that Scandinavian countries' are generally on top of things like social services and health care.

Still, IMHE projects a shortage of 3,300 ICU beds in Sweden, compared to 5,000 in France (with 6 x the population). That doesn't look good.

[JStonebarger]

Both science and democracy have suffered sever blows lately. The pandemia will change everything.

Quite true. And as you said, I hope both trends change in a positive direction.

[tuscanyswe]

One thing that is not beeing mentioned here. We have this projection of cases here in sweden whilst keeping parts of society and business open.

All other countries still need to get to where we are in terms of getting the economy going again at some point sooner or later.

What is that going to do to other countries statistics?

Still maybe sweden change direction allrdy tomorrow and implement harder restrictions. They say they will if the numbers call for it, who knows.

We are also asked to talk to our old ppl and ask them if they even want icu care should it come to that. It is likely that many of them will not make it regardless and if they do not all will go back to the health they had previously. Some tough choice indeed. Also documents on who will get care if icu beds are full have been drafted and submitted to hospitals.
We have also arranged for saying goodbye rooms. This is ofc great considering the alternative of not seeing your loved ones after they have been admitted but its just so incredible sad. I cant imagine saying goodbye to my parents yet they are old but so healthy its just something that had not really crossed my mind a lot before all of this. Thankfully they have gone away from the city and are not seeing anyone but eachother and maybe a neighbour from a far untill.. well who knows.

[mdeth1313]

Can the Federal Government overrule State Orders?
Connecticut just extended their Stay At Home 6 weeks to May 20th.

That's not the issue. Just about every doctor/infectious disease expert is in agreement that widespread testing is how you come out of "lockdown". If the feds won't run the testing program how do we come out? State by state it will depend on who tests and how much testing they do.

[JStonebarger]

We are also asked to talk to our old ppl and ask them if they even want icu care should it come to that. It is likely that many of them will not make it regardless and if they do not all will go back to the health they had previously. Some tough choice indeed. Also documents on who will get care if icu beds are full have been drafted and submitted to hospitals.
We have also arranged for saying goodbye rooms. This is ofc great considering the alternative of not seeing your loved ones after they have been admitted but its just so incredible sad. I cant imagine saying goodbye to my parents yet they are old but so healthy its just something that had not really crossed my mind a lot before all of this. Thankfully they have gone away from the city and are not seeing anyone but eachother and maybe a neighbour from a far untill.. well who knows.

We should all make our wishes known and get our affairs in order before getting sick with COVID-19. By the time you need a ventilator you'll likely be in a medically-induced coma and may never be conscious again.

In my own case preparing involved signing up for a deeded body program. All the less for surviving loved ones to have to deal with. Actually, my 82yo mother signed up years ago... I had been putting it off until now.

[Tickdoc]

Just a quick observation. I made a trip to a hardware store today and got some necessities; light bulbs and bug spay, trash bags, etc.

It was early and store was lightly busy. I parked right up front. In and out in 15 min. Paid thru the outside garden center. Hand sanitized my vehicle, phone, and items purchased both in the car and once I got home.

So I spend the rest of the morning replacing some burnt bulbs. Half of what I bought were already bad?:mad: Ate lunch, gathered the new broken bulbs and my receipt to take back for return.

As I drove back to the store there were literally no parking spots available. Store was completely full. I didn’t even stop. Just went home. Drive thru restaurants serving lunch were also full with lines around the streets.

We are set to peak next week according to our local sources.

Nothing I needed was life threatening. It’s not like the last bulb in my house had gone bad, but my goodness I’m just shocked at a completely full parking lot for a home improvement store now. You could have a taped off x every six feet and not even half of the people parked in the lot could fit in the store.

I’m like the least precautious person here probably but man, even I was creeped out by the sheer quantity of people.

Ok I’m done.

[Kirk007]

Bainbridge Island (pop. @ 25,000) has only had 11 documented cases, and the increase has been a trickle so I figured we were doing a great job and lucky. Turns out not so lucky ... one of those cases appears to have been a 49 year old local police officer (on a very small force) who died yesterday. None of us should assume immunity resulting from our age or health status....

[XXtwindad]

Bainbridge Island (pop. @ 25,000) has only had 11 documented cases, and the increase has been a trickle so I figured we were doing a great job and lucky. Turns out not so lucky ... one of those cases appears to have been a 49 year old local police officer (on a very small force) who died yesterday. None of us should assume immunity resulting from our age or health status....



No. None of us should assume we’re immune. We should use common sense. Wash our hands and practice social distancing. That being said, the vast majority of deaths involved the elderly and people with co-morbidities. There’s also an economic element that is coming into stark relief.

With any kind of responsible leadership, there could’ve been a public call to work on fitness and health. I’ve seen more than one person with a mask dangling beneath their chin while they smoke a cigarette.

[Spdntrxi]

[/B]

No. None of us should assume we’re immune. We should use common sense. Wash our hands and practice social distancing. That being said, the vast majority of deaths involved the elderly and people with co-morbidities. There’s also an economic element that is coming into stark relief.

With any kind of responsible leadership, there could’ve been a public call to work on fitness and health. I’ve seen more than one person with a mask dangling beneath their chin while they smoke a cigarette.
you might want to reread the part you bolded from K007
:bike:

[jimcav]

all models show it. Take heart.

This is an easy to follow model, and while some assumptions are wrong (a 2-day infectious period is very conservative), it doesn't detract from the fact that more stringent efforts result in larger decreases in cases, and therefore deaths:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20040055v1

download the pdf and look at table 3

[stien]

Woke up to a notification that the stimulus payment hit my checking account. Let the fun and games begin around here when y’all get yours.

[oldpotatoe]

against the model prediction. If you end up under 10 deaths today(10 April) (assuming no significant lag in reporting deaths) then it shows your mitigation efforts like physical distancing are working and/or it hadn't penetrated very far into the community.

Given proximity to NY, I think if the # dying each day is lower than the model predicted, then it is the efforts you all are making that is making a difference

No large scale testing, no vaccine..so physical distancing, washing hands, etc, seems to work..so absent large scale testing and a vaccine..the suggestion?
STOP social distancing w/o identifying those still infected and 'go to church/restaurants/sports games/theaters/fly/work......idiotic.

Good thing it's a state's decision, cuz 'we have this thing called a Constitution', something I cherish':eek:..righto-
but my goodness I’m just shocked at a completely full parking lot for a home improvement store now. You could have a taped off x every six feet and not even half of the people parked in the lot could fit in the store.

I’m like the least pre-cautious person here probably but man, even I was creeped out by the sheer quantity of people.

Can the Federal Government overrule State Orders?
Connecticut just extended their Stay At Home 6 weeks to May 20th.

NO
Anything 'Fed' is pretty interesting. The 'word' outta the Feds is it's up to the states to
-get PPE
-Get ventilators
-do your own testing..
The 'Fed' is 'just a backup'...gadzooks

So any Fed 'stay at home order'('order? 7 states ignored it) or the 'lifting' of same is a TV, political moment. There is NO federal 'stay at home' ORDER..it's a political suggestion and the states, rightly so, should do what's best for their state. Regardless of this 'toughest decision I have ever made', political balderdash..He has NO power to direct ANY state to do ANYTHING, regarding this mess. A recovering economy, regardless of the fallout from a re-emerging spike in infections is the 'Feds' number 1 goal.

[mg2ride]

woke up to a notification that the stimulus payment hit my checking account. Let the fun and games begin around here when y’all get yours.

+1

[572cv]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=o4PnSYAqQHU&feature=emb_logo

Clever.

[Tony T]

Can the Federal Government overrule State Orders?
Connecticut just extended their Stay At Home 6 weeks to May 20th.



NO
Anything 'Fed' is pretty interesting. The 'word' outta the Feds is it's up to the states to
-get PPE
-Get ventilators
-do your own testing..
The 'Fed' is 'just a backup'...gadzooks

So any Fed 'stay at home order'('order? 7 states ignored it) or the 'lifting' of same is a TV, political moment. There is NO federal 'stay at home' ORDER..it's a political suggestion and the states, rightly so, should do what's best for their state. Regardless of this 'toughest decision I have ever made', political balderdash..He has NO power to direct ANY state to do ANYTHING, regarding this mess. A recovering economy, regardless of the fallout from a re-emerging spike in infections is the 'Feds' number 1 goal.

That’s what I thought. Was listening to the daily update from POTUS (we do need a daily update, but do we need it from the President, or the Governor? Would prefer a daily briefing from the doctors and health officials) and could not understand what he meant by “I’m going to have to make a decision, and I only hope to God that it’s the right decision” as I did not think he had any power over the states Stay at Home orders (thank God) — So it’s just more political bluster. NYT also confirms it “ Yet the decision on when and how to reopen is not entirely his. The stay-at-home edicts keeping most Americans indoors were issued by governors state by state.”

But I guess he does have power to pressure the states (through suggestion, as you said), though it would have little effect on the hardest hit states. NYT: “The president did issue nonbinding guidelines urging a pause in daily life through the end of the month. And if he were to issue new guidance outlining a path toward reopening, many states would probably follow or feel pressure from businesses and constituents to ease restrictions”

[joosttx]

I really do hope the back to work becomes a State’s decision. I have a lot more (Light years) trust in my Governor....

[Tony T]

I really do hope the back to work becomes a State’s decision. I have a lot more (Light years) trust in my Governor....

Becomes? It is a State decision.
As discussed, Fed can only “recommend”

[ORMojo]

Bill Walton: Bike for Humanity

Biking (virtually) with Bill Walton: Portland Trail Blazers legend to host coronavirus fundraiser http://s.oregonlive.com/0EbOAMV

[skitlets]

For those with Federal student loans, payments and interest have been suspended and it is retroactive to March 13. My servicer's letter sent yesterday left out some key details -- you can request a refund of any payments made since March 13 and you do not need to make ANY payments for each month to continue to count towards your 120 PSLF payments. To request a refund, call your servicer.

Please make sure your loans qualify before relying on any of the CARES Act benefits.

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/what-you-need-to-know-about-student-loans-and-coronavirus-pandemic/

[Clean39T]

For those with Federal student loans, payments and interest have been suspended and it is retroactive to March 13. My servicer's letter sent yesterday left out some key details -- you can request a refund of any payments made since March 13 and you do not need to make ANY payments for each month to continue to count towards your 120 PSLF payments. To request a refund, call your servicer.



Please make sure your loans qualify before relying on any of the CARES Act benefits.



https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/what-you-need-to-know-about-student-loans-and-coronavirus-pandemic/

The rich get free handouts with no strings attached, the proles get to stop paying for a few months (or raid their retirement to feed their families) but still have the bill due at the end of the day... What a system. It really shows who CARES and who matters.

[steveoz]

Woke up to a notification that the stimulus payment hit my checking account. Let the fun and games begin around here when y’all get yours.

Geez you must have been #1 on the list! - is your name AAAARON AAADAMSON?

[ORMojo]

For those with Federal student loans, payments and interest have been suspended and it is retroactive to March 13.

Or, if you are like my oldest daughter, who very responsibly refinanced her federal student loan to a private student loan for a much lower interest rate, and refinanced at a 5-year term so she could just pay it off and be done with it - while sacrificing some during those 5 years to make the higher payments - you get absolutely no relief.

Don't get me wrong - I think the CARES Act(s) is necessary. But between the unevenness, inequalities, and pork buried in even that legislation, it has its shortcomings.

[skitlets]

Or, if you are like my oldest daughter, who very responsibly refinanced her federal student loan to a private student loan for a much lower interest rate, and refinanced at a 5-year term so she could just pay it off and be done with it - while sacrificing some during those 5 years to make the higher payments - you get absolutely no relief.

Don't get me wrong - I think the CARES Act(s) is necessary. But between the unevenness, inequalities, and pork buried in even that legislation, it has its shortcomings.

No disagreement from me here. My Federal direct grad loans are almost 7%... I worked through college to come out with virtually no debt, but law school was a whole different story.

[Cantdog]

The rich get free handouts with no strings attached, the proles get to stop paying for a few months (or raid their retirement to feed their families) but still have the bill due at the end of the day... What a system. It really shows who CARES and who matters.

I consider the saved cash for a few months basically a ****ty hazard pay for my work. Setting it aside in case I get sick while working.

[stien]

Geez you must have been #1 on the list! - is your name AAAARON AAADAMSON?

I bank at a credit union and they'll credit your account as soon as any incoming payments are received, no waiting for them to clear or anything. I get my bi-monthly paychecks a few days early as well.

[cmg]

yea, off topic.. a bit of funny from the UK. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0hnZGLoxwE

[OtayBW]

I really do hope the back to work becomes a State’s decision. I have a lot more (Light years) trust in my Governor....
I believe that's the way it will be played in order to deflect any possible responsibility from landing at executive level....

[jchasse]

Geez you must have been #1 on the list! - is your name AAAARON AAADAMSON?

Laughed out loud because it made me think of this...cracks me up no matter how many times I watch it :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd7FixvoKBw

[joosttx]

I believe that's the way it will be played in order to deflect any possible responsibility from landing at executive level....

I have no confidence in our executive decision making abilities. I have been in situations like this many times (not at this scale obviously) where the situation is unknown, the risk is high, and the safest bet is to listen to scientists who predict worse case scenario or at least conservative outcomes because to risk is too great for anything else. You don't have to listen to scientist 100% but you got to make the right calls based on creative solutions.

[RyanH]

The rich get free handouts with no strings attached, the proles get to stop paying for a few months (or raid their retirement to feed their families) but still have the bill due at the end of the day... What a system. It really shows who CARES and who matters.Huh?

[OtayBW]

I have no confidence in our executive decision making abilities. I have been in situations like this many times (not at this scale obviously) where the situation is unknown, the risk is high, and the safest bet is to listen to scientists who predict worse case scenario or at least conservative outcomes because to risk is too great for anything else. You don't have to listen to scientist 100% but you got to make the right calls based on creative solutions.
Of course.....predict various outcomes based on defensible data....

[RyanH]

Antibody testing results are coming in:

https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/?fbclid=IwAR1cGatoNhNmObIUC3WtNViSE5OLHcA-jy1-lDQqC9jtGX3uRfsOv08hiDw

If these numbers hold true, then with a mortality rate of 0.39%, the initial lockdown period will see roughly 17MM people having gotten the virus, which means only ~5% of our population will have gotten it.

We can't shelter in place for over a year, and it's possible that Sweden will turn out to be taking the correct approach. There is such a thing as over-mitigating. Based on the revised IHME numbers for California, we should be looking to do a partial lift of the lockdown soon, not extend it like LA is. The goal is to keep the R0 factor low enough that it won't lead to the healthcare system being overrun. The problem is that it is politically risky to lift lockdowns as it is unclear how we should proceed. It's much easier to err on the side of caution and do what everyone else does. What Sweden is doing is politically risky, hugely so, but there's a possibility it might be the right approach. We can't lose sight of that and engage in an echo chamber of confirmation bias.

[HenryA]

antibody testing results are coming in:

https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/?fbclid=iwar1cgatonhnmobiuc3wtnvise5olhca-jy1-ldqqc9jtgx3urfsov08hidw

if these numbers hold true, then with a mortality rate of 0.39%, the initial lockdown period will see roughly 17mm people having gotten the virus, which means only ~5% of our population will have gotten it.

We can't shelter in place for over a year, and it's possible that sweden will turn out to be taking the correct approach. There is such a thing as over-mitigating. Based on the revised ihme numbers for california, we should be looking to do a partial lift of the lockdown soon, not extend it like la is. The goal is to keep the r0 factor low enough that it won't lead to the healthcare system being overrun. The problem is that it is politically risky to lift lockdowns as it is unclear how we should proceed. It's much easier to err on the side of caution and do what everyone else does. What sweden is doing is politically risky, hugely so, but there's a possibility it might be the right approach. We can't lose sight of that and engage in an echo chamber of confirmation bias.

+1^^^

[XXtwindad]

The rich get free handouts with no strings attached, the proles get to stop paying for a few months (or raid their retirement to feed their families) but still have the bill due at the end of the day... What a system. It really shows who CARES and who matters.

100% agree.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/opinion/coronavirus-small-businesses.amp.html

“If Casper, WeWork or some celebrity’s makeup company doesn’t survive this crisis, the impact on our lives will be negligible. Elon Musk will be fine. But if we lose our barber, the fruit store on the corner or the plumber who saved us in a flood, we will have lost a piece of ourselves.”

[HenryA]

The rich get free handouts with no strings attached, the proles get to stop paying for a few months (or raid their retirement to feed their families) but still have the bill due at the end of the day... What a system. It really shows who CARES and who matters.

Kinda...

But that you have massive student loans might be an indication that you’re not one of the “proles”. The proles are humping a shovel or slinging fries - not going to an expensive school for an advanced degree.

[thwart]

Antibody testing results are coming in:

https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/?fbclid=IwAR1cGatoNhNmObIUC3WtNViSE5OLHcA-jy1-lDQqC9jtGX3uRfsOv08hiDw

If these numbers hold true, then with a mortality rate of 0.39%, the initial lockdown period will see roughly 17MM people having gotten the virus, which means only ~5% of our population will have gotten it.

We can't shelter in place for over a year, and it's possible that Sweden will turn out to be taking the correct approach. There is such a thing as over-mitigating. Based on the revised IHME numbers for California, we should be looking to do a partial lift of the lockdown soon, not extend it like LA is. The goal is to keep the R0 factor low enough that it won't lead to the healthcare system being overrun. The problem is that it is politically risky to lift lockdowns as it is unclear how we should proceed. It's much easier to err on the side of caution and do what everyone else does. What Sweden is doing is politically risky, hugely so, but there's a possibility it might be the right approach. We can't lose sight of that and engage in an echo chamber of confirmation bias.

Sweden's approach doesn't look to be the 'right approach' at this point...

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e904d38b4aaaa0006ecf953/960x0.jpg?fit=scale

[XXtwindad]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/opinion/coronavirus-political-reform.amp.html

Universal health care. Living wages. Telecommuting. I’m hopeful they’ll be part of the conversation when we emerge from the Pandemic.

[rallizes]

Sweden's approach doesn't look to be the 'right approach' at this point...

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e904d38b4aaaa0006ecf953/960x0.jpg?fit=scale

lol it probably does if you write for the American Spectator

[skitlets]

Kinda...

But that you have massive student loans might be an indication that you’re not one of the “proles”. The proles are humping a shovel or slinging fries - not going to an expensive school for an advanced degree.

The way out from being a "prole" is, for the most part, through 4 year college education. The price of that has far surpassed inflation and minimum wage. If you want out, you likely have to take on debt.

I wanted out. I took that debt.

[RyanH]

Sweden's approach doesn't look to be the 'right approach' at this point...



A flattened or downward curve is not the long term sustainable goal. It's the containment stage. In the mitigation stage, you increase capacity and take measures to keep the upwards pointing trend below what the healthcare system can sustain.

There's containment and mitigation. The world right now is focused on presenting containment without consideration for mitigation. That's fine, but just realize that the models stop at August and we have to open back up eventually, which means cases will inevitably rise. So, rising cases is not a concern in itself, it's if the R0 is greater than what the system can sustain long term. Most of America is going to get it, those that are susceptible may die, we just can't let it get so bad that it causes additional deaths beyond what the virus is capable of. Cuomo said in NY that not a single person died because of hospital resource limitations. Keep that in mind.

[Spdntrxi]

a flattened or downward curve is not the long term sustainable goal. It's the containment stage. In the mitigation stage, you increase capacity and take measures to keep the upwards pointing trend below what the healthcare system can sustain.

There's containment and mitigation. The world right now is focused on presenting containment without consideration for mitigation. That's fine, but just realize that the models stop at august and we have to open back up eventually, which means cases will inevitably rise. So, rising cases is not a concern in itself, it's if the r0 is greater than what the system can sustain long term. Most of america is going to get it, those that are susceptible may die, we just can't let it get so bad that it causes additional deaths beyond what the virus is capable of. Cuomo said in ny that not a single person died because of hospital resource limitations. Keep that in mind.

+1

[thwart]

A flattened or downward curve is not the long term sustainable goal. It's the containment stage. In the mitigation stage, you increase capacity and take measures to keep the upwards pointing trend below what the healthcare system can sustain.

There's containment and mitigation. The world right now is focused on presenting containment without consideration for mitigation. That's fine, but just realize that the models stop at August and we have to open back up eventually, which means cases will inevitably rise. So, rising cases is not a concern in itself, it's if the R0 is greater than what the system can sustain long term. Most of America is going to get it, those that are susceptible may die, we just can't let it get so bad that it causes additional deaths beyond what the virus is capable of. Cuomo said in NY that not a single person died because of hospital resource limitations. Keep that in mind.

Word on the ground would certainly dispute Gov. Cuomo's statement... BTW, when did he say this? I can't find that quote.

At least two concepts are pertinent here:

1) Proven effective treatments against COVID-19. None are available on April 11, 2020. In June or July... these are much more likely to be available.

2) Vaccination readiness. Still at least 3-6 months away.

So... this means if you contract COVID-19 now and have the misfortune of getting a fulminant version of it, you are more likely to die than in mid-summer.

If a vaccine becomes available earlier than expected the death rate is likely to drop precipitously.

[Black Dog]

Word on the ground would certainly dispute Gov. Cuomo's statement... BTW, when did he say this? I can't find that quote.

At least two concepts are pertinent here:

1) Proven effective treatments against COVID-19. None are available on April 11, 2020. In June or July... these are much more likely to be available.

2) Vaccination readiness. Still at least 3-6 months away.

So... this means if you contract COVID-19 now and have the misfortune of getting a fulminant version of it, you are more likely to die than in mid-summer.

If a vaccine becomes available earlier than expected the death rate is likely to drop precipitously.

Exactly, we need to buy some time for more than one reason.

[RyanH]

Word on the ground would certainly dispute Gov. Cuomo's statement... BTW, when did he say this? I can't find that quote.


I tried to find the standalone footage but I spent more time than I should have. Here's the link to the footage and explanation, (forewarning if you are triggered by Ben Shapiro):

https://youtu.be/pGUyLam7cI0?t=820


1) Proven effective treatments against COVID-19. None are available on April 11, 2020. In June or July... these are much more likely to be available.


Agreed BUT data to support Chloroquine seems to not be panning out well so far and Barclays put a 20% likelihood Remdesevir will pass clinical trials for this. Trump is trying to give hope but there's no data to support that we have a good antiviral on the horizon or when that may be.


2) Vaccination readiness. Still at least 3-6 months away.


Earliest ETA is 12 months and that's optimistic. We won't be done dealing with Coronavirus until we get a vaccine.

[mg2ride]

The way out from being a "prole" is, for the most part, through 4 year college education. The price of that has far surpassed inflation and minimum wage. If you want out, you likely have to take on debt.

I wanted out. I took that debt.

Hopefully you did the math and research on this before you took on the debt. The math to verify that cost from the school you decided to go to and the degree that you decided to get would likely result in an income that made economical sense to do so.

So many people who don't have the means, choose to go to a VERY expensive school, live on campus(the full time student live) and get a degree that doesn't lead to income. I have a hard time being empathic towards their struggle to pay off $100k-$400K in loans.

ATMO, it is no different than having to pay loans off from a failed business attempt.

[skitlets]

Hopefully you did the math and research on this before you took on the debt. The math to verify that cost from the school you decided to go to and the degree that you decided to get would likely result in an income that made economical sense to do so.

So many people who don't have the means, choose to go to a VERY expensive school, live on campus(the full time student live) and get a degree that doesn't lead to income. I have a hard time being empathic towards their struggle to pay off $100k-$400K in loans.

ATMO, it is no different than having to pay loans off from a failed business attempt.

It ultimately paid off, though how one expects a 17 year old to do that cost-benefit analysis, I will never understand. Nor were my parents capable, who were refugees with no schooling.

I am empathetic and sympathetic to kids who are taking on tons of debt just for a 4 year degree. My parents didn't understand the process. My magnet "college preparatory" high school wrongly assumed everyone could afford college. We were actively pushed away from looking at community college -> university transfers.

Law school was a different story and a knowing gamble. That also paid off but I am relying on PSLF.

[thwart]

Agreed BUT data to support Chloroquine seems to not be panning out well so far and Barclays put a 20% likelihood Remdesevir will pass clinical trials for this. Trump is trying to give hope but there's no data to support that we have a good antiviral on the horizon or when that may be.

Two words: Convalescent serum. Certainly too early to tell but holds great promise. Easier and rapid antibody screening should facilitate this.

[harlond]

Hopefully you did the math and research on this before you took on the debt. The math to verify that cost from the school you decided to go to and the degree that you decided to get would likely result in an income that made economical sense to do so.

So many people who don't have the means, choose to go to a VERY expensive school, live on campus(the full time student live) and get a degree that doesn't lead to income. I have a hard time being empathic towards their struggle to pay off $100k-$400K in loans.

ATMO, it is no different than having to pay loans off from a failed business attempt.Isn't one difference that those loans are dischargeable through bankruptcy? Not without consequences, but it won't keep you from becoming president. Many student loans are not dischargeable.

[Clean39T]

Kinda...

But that you have massive student loans might be an indication that you’re not one of the “proles”. The proles are humping a shovel or slinging fries - not going to an expensive school for an advanced degree.

I was fortunate to be born when I was and to have escaped the trap set for the generations that have come behind me. I got scholarships and worked my way through college at a state school when tuition was only ~$10K/yr, lived in a fraternity that was cheap n' dirty, didn't have a car (and a crappy one at that) until my senior year, etc. - so I had my loans paid off a few years out of school (early 2000's). I also graduated into a stagnant but not saturated economy and have been able to advance in my career significantly despite only have a liberal-arts BA degree.

Look, I'll spare the deep debate here .....but when something is sold to an entire generation as necessary and normal (going to college, getting into debt), the fault lies more on the folks in charge who are profiting off that system than the kids with still-forming brains who make the choice to go down that road. The reason schools are in an arms race to turn campuses into five-star resorts is because it makes the people in charge rich AF to do so - the kids just become habituated to it and fall in line like everyone else.. When my generation was in school, it wasn't like we were picketing on the Dean's lawn demanding flat-screen TVs in every classroom, massage chairs in the library, or gourmet food in the cafe. The administrations, boards, and investors did that - not the students. And tuitions rose accordingly. It always takes at least three people to get into debt - the shark, the backer, and the fish.

Scott Galloway had a great interview on Sam Harris' "Making Sense" podcast that went into some of this in eloquent ways that I can't match.

[Elefantino]

Vaccination readiness. Still at least 3-6 months away.

So... this means if you contract COVID-19 now and have the misfortune of getting a fulminant version of it, you are more likely to die than in mid-summer.

If a vaccine becomes available earlier than expected the death rate is likely to drop precipitously.
A study in The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30746-7.pdf) says be wary of opening too soon.

Also from The Lancet, of interest to us:

Respiratory health in athletes: facing the COVID-19 challenge (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30175-2/fulltext)

[HenryA]

I was fortunate to be born when I was and to have escaped the trap set for the generations that have come behind me. I got scholarships and worked my way through college at a state school when tuition was only ~$10K/yr, lived in a fraternity that was cheap n' dirty, didn't have a car (and a crappy one at that) until my senior year, etc. - so I had my loans paid off a few years out of school (early 2000's). I also graduated into a stagnant but not saturated economy and have been able to advance in my career significantly despite only have a liberal-arts BA degree.

Look, I'll spare the deep debate here .....but when something is sold to an entire generation as necessary and normal (going to college, getting into debt), it's more the folks in charge who are profiting off that system's fault than the kids with still-forming brains who make the choice to go down that road. The reason schools are in an arms race to turn campuses into five-star resorts is because it makes the people in charge rich AF to do so - the kids just become habituated to it and fall in line like everyone else.. When my generation was in school, it wasn't like we were picketing on the Dean's lawn demanding flat-screen TVs in every classroom, massage chairs in the library, or gourmet food in the cafe. The administrations, boards, and investors did that - not the students. And tuitions rose accordingly. It always takes at least three people to get into debt - the shark, the backer, and the fish.

Scott Galloway had a great interview on Sam Harris' "Making Sense" podcast that went into some of this in eloquent ways that I can't match.

Don’t think we have an argument, or not much of one.

It was free-someone-else’s-money, loaned to people without experience or a job and an arms race by the schools to see who had the best climbing wall and indoor jungle river so those poor lambs would gleefully come to slaughter.

Your path was pretty much typical for your time and prior, although I and many others on here can outdo your story. Back in my day a semester was $1200.00 US and gas was (no ****) .25 per gallon. (yells at cloud).

:)

[Clean39T]

Don’t think we have an argument, or not much of one.



It was free-someone-else’s-money, loaned to people without experience or a job and an arms race by the schools to see who had the best climbing wall and indoor jungle river so those poor lambs would gleefully come to slaughter.



Your path was pretty much typical for your time and prior, although I and many others on here can outdo your story. Back in my day a semester was $1200.00 US and gas was (no ****) .25 per gallon. (yells at cloud).



:)[emoji481]

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Mikej]

I was fortunate to be born when I was and to have escaped the trap set for the generations that have come behind me. I got scholarships and worked my way through college at a state school when tuition was only ~$10K/yr, lived in a fraternity that was cheap n' dirty, didn't have a car (and a crappy one at that) until my senior year, etc. - so I had my loans paid off a few years out of school (early 2000's). I also graduated into a stagnant but not saturated economy and have been able to advance in my career significantly despite only have a liberal-arts BA degree.

Look, I'll spare the deep debate here .....but when something is sold to an entire generation as necessary and normal (going to college, getting into debt), it's more the folks in charge who are profiting off that system's fault than the kids with still-forming brains who make the choice to go down that road. The reason schools are in an arms race to turn campuses into five-star resorts is because it makes the people in charge rich AF to do so - the kids just become habituated to it and fall in line like everyone else.. When my generation was in school, it wasn't like we were picketing on the Dean's lawn demanding flat-screen TVs in every classroom, massage chairs in the library, or gourmet food in the cafe. The administrations, boards, and investors did that - not the students. And tuitions rose accordingly. It always takes at least three people to get into debt - the shark, the backer, and the fish.

Scott Galloway had a great interview on Sam Harris' "Making Sense" podcast that went into some of this in eloquent ways that I can't match.

Good post. And the cost of school sports teams.

[mg2ride]

....I am empathetic and sympathetic to kids who are taking on tons of debt just for a 4 year degree. My parents didn't understand the process.....

This point does make me want to retract my prior statement. It is a crying ass shame they target people this young.

[marciero]

I was fortunate to be born when I was and to have escaped the trap set for the generations that have come behind me. I got scholarships and worked my way through college at a state school when tuition was only ~$10K/yr, lived in a fraternity that was cheap n' dirty, didn't have a car (and a crappy one at that) until my senior year, etc. - so I had my loans paid off a few years out of school (early 2000's). I also graduated into a stagnant but not saturated economy and have been able to advance in my career significantly despite only have a liberal-arts BA degree.

Look, I'll spare the deep debate here .....but when something is sold to an entire generation as necessary and normal (going to college, getting into debt), the fault lies more on the folks in charge who are profiting off that system than the kids with still-forming brains who make the choice to go down that road. The reason schools are in an arms race to turn campuses into five-star resorts is because it makes the people in charge rich AF to do so - the kids just become habituated to it and fall in line like everyone else.. When my generation was in school, it wasn't like we were picketing on the Dean's lawn demanding flat-screen TVs in every classroom, massage chairs in the library, or gourmet food in the cafe. The administrations, boards, and investors did that - not the students. And tuitions rose accordingly. It always takes at least three people to get into debt - the shark, the backer, and the fish.

Scott Galloway had a great interview on Sam Harris' "Making Sense" podcast that went into some of this in eloquent ways that I can't match.

Cost of higher ed is problematic for sure (even though it has risen less sharply than many other things we accept) but has many causes. You cant single out facilities and infrastructure. Having nice facilities and decent food is completely consistent with cultivating a healthy mind, body, and spirit. Much of that also came when crumbling infrastructure was renovated. Also true is that some of that is funded by donors and endowments, etc, not tuition dollars. But even allowing that some of that might be excessive, aside from administrative bloat, which I do see as a reall problem, and perhaps some overpaid administrators, by and large people are not getting rich off higher ed. (And you have to consider the abuses of the for-profts as a separate case. High paid coaches could be seen as an exception too since they are paid market value and the programs bring in money.) A number of the more progressive schools with endowments are making real efforts to reduce tuition and/or pledge that students will graduate free of debt. Who are these "investors", and how are the profiting from the students?

Lastly, it is also true that the student loan problem has been exaggerated to some extent by a focus on anecdotal reporting of extreme cases. I wont cite references, though I could at one time.

[Hellgate]

Funding of higher education by both the state and federal government has reduced significantly over the past 20+ years. It change was first felt in higher fees, then both fees and tuition.


https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2019/10/two-decades-of-change-in-federal-and-state-higher-education-funding

[oldpotatoe]

Becomes? It is a State decision.
As discussed, Fed can only “recommend”

Yes, it is. The FED has NO power to order the states to do ANYTHING, regarding this mess. Yes, the FED can put petty BS, political pressure on some governors..likely via twitter(geez)..but the ultimate decision is with the Governors.
many states would probably follow or feel pressure from businesses and constituents to ease restrictions”

I doubt states will just arbitrarily follow..a re-emerging spike of infections would end their political career, if they opened things too soon. AND many, including the guy in the big chair, worry about their political future way more than you or I and whether or not we get sick.
The problem is that it is politically risky to lift lockdowns as it is unclear how we should proceed. It's much easier to err on the side of caution and do what everyone else does. What Sweden is doing is politically risky, hugely so, but there's a possibility it might be the right approach. We can't lose sight of that and engage in an echo chamber of confirmation bias.

'Political risk' should not be in play. Health and safety of the populace should be. It's not 'easy' to keep the place locked down but it might be the safest way. lacking a vaccine and large scale testing, how DO you re-open w/o a spike in new infections? All this re-opening stuff is easy for those not at risk..NOT like me and my wife and my son. "Politics"..that just makes me see red...pun intended...

It smacks of the 'gotta expect losses' BS mentality of way to many farging 'politicians' that spout BS on TV every day.

[Davist]

I read an article somewhere, which rang true, that the indoor climbing gyms, lazy rivers, 4 kids per class et al are something tangible for the prospective student and family's comparison sake, it's hard for people to look at things like "quality of education" without a concrete score card. They went on to say that student/teacher ratio (among other things) really has no bearing on what quality of education you're getting.

[verticaldoug]

Yes, it is. The FED has NO power to order the states to do ANYTHING, regarding this mess. Yes, the FED can put petty BS, political pressure on some governors..likely via twitter(geez)..but the ultimate decision is with the Governors.

I doubt states will just arbitrarily follow..a re-emerging spike of infections would end their political career, if they opened things too soon. AND many, including the guy in the big chair, worry about their political future way more than you or I and whether or not we get sick.


'Political risk' should not be in play. Health and safety of the populace should be. It's not 'easy' to keep the place locked down but it might be the safest way. lacking a vaccine and large scale testing, how DO you re-open w/o a spike in new infections? All this re-opening stuff is easy for those not at risk..like me and my wife and my son. "Politics"..that just makes me see red...pun intended...

It smacks of the 'gotta expect loses' BS mentality of way to many farging 'politicians' that spout BS on TV every day.

You see this math on display with mass shootings. Prayer will deliver us.
Don't underestimate ignorance and the unwillingness of people to admit they were wrong.
To quote Asimov: ' There is a cult of ignorance in the United States.... leading to the false notion of democracy, 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'

Look up the full quote

[oldpotatoe]

A flattened or downward curve is not the long term sustainable goal. It's the containment stage. In the mitigation stage, you increase capacity and take measures to keep the upwards pointing trend below what the healthcare system can sustain.

There's containment and mitigation. The world right now is focused on presenting containment without consideration for mitigation. That's fine, but just realize that the models stop at August and we have to open back up eventually, which means cases will inevitably rise. So, rising cases is not a concern in itself, it's if the R0 is greater than what the system can sustain long term. Most of America is going to get it, those that are susceptible may die, we just can't let it get so bad that it causes additional deaths beyond what the virus is capable of. Cuomo said in NY that not a single person died because of hospital resource limitations. Keep that in mind.

This is nutz and fits in with the 'gotta expect losses' mind set. YES, it's important to keep new infections below what the health care system can handle BUT for some of us, a large scale, politically motivated, re-opening may be DEADLY to some of us.

Keep THAT in mind..

[oldpotatoe]

You see this math on display with mass shootings. Prayer will deliver us.
Don't underestimate ignorance and the unwillingness of people to admit they were wrong.
To quote Asimov: ' There is a cult of ignorance in the United States.... leading to the false notion of democracy, 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'

Look up the full quote

No kidding and I will NOT jump into a religious discussion but 'prayer will deliver us' is like a joke waiting for a punch line...But, BUT, BUT...

-Frustrated and angry in the people's republic....

[tuscanyswe]

I heard some swedish reporters comparing the tone of the american society vs the swedish society (i would guess they were comparing big cities vs big cities more than rural..). They say that in us one can almost see the fear in ppls eye when u talk to them. Many does not even want to get within interviewing range for fear which might be a good thing in terms of spread but what does it do to ppl living in such a high state of anxiety for a prolonged period?

We have not had many discussions of mental health aspects of a shut down and this crisis in general. Ppl do die and have their lives altered from a lot of things other than the virus itself in this pandemic (besides economics as well).

Mental health of living alone in fear of unknowns with no job perhaps etc, what does this do to a person. How does seeing empty streets and a society completely shut down around him or her affect his or her situation going forward?

There are so many variables in this pandemic that are very real that are not spoken of much. Depression and even suicides to name the most obvious.

Challenging times idd.

[verticaldoug]

A flattened or downward curve is not the long term sustainable goal. It's the containment stage. In the mitigation stage, you increase capacity and take measures to keep the upwards pointing trend below what the healthcare system can sustain.

There's containment and mitigation. The world right now is focused on presenting containment without consideration for mitigation. That's fine, but just realize that the models stop at August and we have to open back up eventually, which means cases will inevitably rise. So, rising cases is not a concern in itself, it's if the R0 is greater than what the system can sustain long term. Most of America is going to get it, those that are susceptible may die, we just can't let it get so bad that it causes additional deaths beyond what the virus is capable of. Cuomo said in NY that not a single person died because of hospital resource limitations. Keep that in mind.

Cuomo statement is true only in a narrow sense. Daily deaths from other causes and delayed EMS response has increased. The percentage of EMS calls where the person could not be saved has risen from 48% to 75%.

Mitigation and Containment are difficult in they will ultimately require different responses from different groups. The Gov will have to decide on what support to give to those individuals who are 'at risk' and may be required to self-isolate until a vaccine is available.

The early Imperial College papers on response discuss these various levels of mitigation required by different groups.

You also have the issue with the 'green card' discussion for people who have had the virus, and now recovered. Although they are no longer possible to spread by their own coughing, they can still contact spread if they are not responsible. My fear is the serology test will give the recovered a sense of invincibility and their behavior will endanger those still at risk.

[colker]

I heard some swedish reporters comparing the tone of the american society vs the swedish society (i would guess they were comparing big cities vs big cities more than rural..). They say that in us one can almost see the fear in ppls eye when u talk to them. Many does not even want to get within interviewing range for fear which might be a good thing in terms of spread but what does it do to ppl living in such a high state of anxiety for a prolonged period?

We have not had many discussions of mental health aspects of a shut down and this crisis in general. Ppl do die and have their lives altered from a lot of things other than the virus itself in this pandemic (besides economics as well).

Mental health of living alone in fear of unknowns with no job perhaps etc, what does this do to a person. How does seeing empty streets and a society completely shut down around him or her affect his or her situation going forward?

There are so many variables in this pandemic that are very real that are not spoken of much. Depression and even suicides to name the most obvious.

Challenging times idd.

Well ... i am living under these conditions and there is no depression or suicide looming around. It´s not fun but it´s healthy since we are being responsible.Is it depressing to resist to an enemy in war? Is it depressing to stay in the trenches? On the contrary: it gives us a heightened sense of reality.
I understand you stand up to Sweden´s decision but that argumentative line is wrong.

[grateful]

What happens when the masses realize that this downtime has helped the environment begin to repair itself?

[Mikej]

What happens when the masses realize that this downtime has helped the environment begin to repair itself?

I heard each dose of the vaccine is going to require a bald eagle and polar bear paw.

[oldpotatoe]

What happens when the masses realize that this downtime has helped the environment begin to repair itself?

They will smile and nod and jump into their big truck for a trip 2 blocks down to the 7-11..:eek:

[RyanH]

This is nutz and fits in with the 'gotta expect losses' mind set. YES, it's important to keep new infections below what the health care system can handle BUT for some of us, a large scale, politically motivated, re-opening may be DEADLY to some of us.



Keep THAT in mind..What would you propose instead? The more data we collect, the clearer it seems that the death rate is much lower than originally thought. The most recent data from antibody testing in Germany suggests a death rate of 0.39%.

[oldpotatoe]

What would you propose instead? The more data we collect, the clearer it seems that the death rate is much lower than originally thought. The most recent data from antibody testing in Germany suggests a death rate of 0.39%.
THAT makes me feel better..gee, my wife's death is part of a MUCH LOWER DEATH rate..oh joy, that makes me feel so much better(my wife is fine for now-69yo asthmatic).

Sorry..but 2 things..the 'numbers' say, all that I have seen, that the 'death rate' is far higher than the .39%..All I'm doing is divide deaths by those tested and infected..Probably more infected, self quarantine, then recover but like my son, nobody really knows since he couldn't be tested.

April 11-492,416 cases, 18,599 deaths..3.8% 'death rate'.

BUT so what? Even if the death rate IS much lower, if there are MORE infected people 'out there', as things get re-opened, without large scale testing and a VACCINE..I and many, many others still risk my life and the life of my wife and son if I go out and mingle.

What I propose?..keep things shut down and continue this social distancing until there is a vaccine, because, IT WORKS. The only goal CAN'T be just have an infection rate that the health care system 'can handle'.
Like a ship with a big hole in it..'fix the hole partially so the bilge pumps can handle it and keep it from sinking'..the hole is still there. FIX the HOLE->vaccine or at least large scale testing to get the infected out of the general population.

Some business' will adapt but yes, it's gonna be a ugly mess until the vaccine is available.

What needs to be taken OUT of the equation is the political motives of those who make some of these 'decisions'.....If this wasn't an election year, I doubt this 'gotta re-open quick' would be on the table..maybe, it's hard to say with the twitterclown in chief.

[paredown]

Funding of higher education by both the state and federal government has reduced significantly over the past 20+ years. It change was first felt in higher fees, then both fees and tuition.


https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2019/10/two-decades-of-change-in-federal-and-state-higher-education-funding
The other thing that no one has mentioned is the perverse distribution of rewards in current day higher ed, and the way that has increased costs.

Ever since the MBAs took over, there has been an explosion in high paid administrative positions--dean of this, associate dean of that, program directors etc. Then you have the problem of what my friend calls the "NFL-ization of Academia"--just like the climbing walls and cafeterias, big-name academics sell your school, so every Uni out there chases the same 15 or 20 senior people who get paid a boatload--either to jump ship, or bribed to stay in place.

On top of that, most teaching is now done by sessionals--often for much less than minimum wage--there are countess storied of them living in their cars, or dying because they can't afford health care. In NY, they are still offering sessionals a little over $2k per course which is about the same as it was in the '80s.

So just like modern American corporations--led by the same MBAs--the group at the top are hell-bent on exploiting their vulnerable labor force, juicing their marketing to get new suckers in the door, all so they can reward thenselves and their friends with highly paid but unnecessary jobs.

In short, it has become another American racket...

[tuscanyswe]

Well ... i am living under these conditions and there is no depression or suicide looming around. It´s not fun but it´s healthy since we are being responsible.Is it depressing to resist to an enemy in war? Is it depressing to stay in the trenches? On the contrary: it gives us a heightened sense of reality.
I understand you stand up to Sweden´s decision but that argumentative line is wrong.

Nah this is not about standing up to swedens policy. If it were up to me we would have closed down 3 weeks ago. But i have learned to accept that those in charge are better suited to take these decisions than me. They are also the ones with the best knowledge of swedens strenghts and weaknesses and how swedes react in different scenarios.That does not mean that my path (or the normal course of action tbf) does not prove to be better. Only when its all over when one can summerise all the different data, and that may take years considering reprocussions, will we know what will be the best outcome for different populations and scenarios (if even then).


Its great that you feel well and dont hear or see any mental effects on ppl. But i would wager that your personal experience in this situation has little bearing on the effect in society. I would be amazed if this situation did not have these effects on the allrdy fragile and those experience personal hardship.

Here i have friends that are deffinetly feeling that this has its toll on them all rdy even here where the effects are not yet as strong nor society as closed down and with swedens social net (granted worse than before but way better than most countries).

[RyanH]

THAT makes me feel better..gee, my wife's death is part of a MUCH LOWER DEATH rate..oh joy, that makes me feel so much better(my wife is fine for now-69yo asthmatic).

Sorry..but 2 things..the 'numbers' say, all that I have seen, that the 'death rate' is far higher than the .39%..All I'm doing is divide deaths by those tested and infected..Probably more infected, self quarantine, then recover but like my son, nobody really knows since he couldn't be tested.

Look above and you'll see my link to the Gangelt antibody testing. With antibody testing we are now able to tell what the real death rate is. How you are calculating it is wrong.

A vaccine is 12 to 18 months out. You want the entire country to shelter in place for that long? I don't think any of us fully comprehend how devastating to our country that would be. What it will be like to have to get our food from soup kitchens. All of our savings and wealth created, destroyed. Sorry, even if this was much worse than what it is turning out to be, there would be social unrest, revolt. I am personally not going to lose everything over this.

I'm not proposing just opening things back up and returning to normal right away or even any time soon. California, for example, should be looking at what it can begin to re-open that is most beneficial to society and the economy. Resume all Healthcare procedures? Open the courts back up? Open some aspects of retail with conditions of mask wearing?

[oldpotatoe]

Look above and you'll see my link to the Gangelt antibody testing. With antibody testing we are now able to tell what the real death rate is. How you are calculating it is wrong.

A vaccine is 12 to 18 months out. You want the entire country to shelter in place for that long? I don't think any of us fully comprehend how devastating to our country that would be. What it will be like to have to get our food from soup kitchens. All of our savings and wealth created, destroyed. Sorry, even if this was much worse than what it is turning out to be, there would be social unrest, revolt. I am personally not going to lose everything over this.

I'm not proposing just opening things back up and returning to normal right away or even any time soon. California, for example, should be looking at what it can begin to re-open that is most beneficial to society and the economy. Resume all Healthcare procedures? Open the courts back up? Open some aspects of retail with conditions of mask wearing?

Not true since the actual number of those infected, then recovered, w/o any hospital stay or MD's involved is not known.

Yes, but my opinion on a bike forum means exactly nothing. 'Devastating'.???.

Again, in that 'gotta expect losses', and the 'cure is worse than the disease' camp. A chugging along economy means jack ****e if its my wife who' the one who dies to make sure some restaurant owner is OK or some political hack gets re-elected.

Keeping things like they are for an additional 10 months won't create the death and destruction you mention. The Great Depression lasted for 10 YEARS..with a vaccine, this will be essentially OVER..in 10-12 months, NOT YEARS.

The bolded is what's going to happen, it's happening NOW..'some' in big chairs want a NORMAL economy like the 'good old days' before November 3rd..'I'll listen to the experts but I'LL be making the decision'...

Let's look at times in the past, when things were VERY tough, for a really long time and see how smart people came together, helped one another, came up with REAL solutions, really great ideas on how to deal with the crisis in hand..Ya know, the Britis could have just surrendered to Hitler in July or August of 1940. The large scale bombing, destruction and death would have instantly ENDED..another example of how the cure(no more bombing, surrender to Germany) would be worse than the disease(the battle, being free)..

Things will slowly re-open, things will be permanently changed. Hopefully some things for the better BUT..'I'd like to see packed churches for easter, cuz easter is a special day for me'..is just political hogwash from ignorant people.