O.t.tesla autonomy vehicle investor day [Archive]

mistermo

04-24-2019, 12:12 PM

I just read an article on kqed about these young tech folks who literally rent out a bed in a storage container, make 6 figures and consider their social media content as their “worldly possessions” things are definitely different

Saw that too. Millennials don't own, they rent. Here in Indianapolis, we're in the midst of redesigning infrastructure to accommodate this change. Hope it's a good move. Time will tell.

I was skeptical of Tesla til I got one. Not anymore. The company may not last, but it's foolish to deny that it changed the industry in ways that won't be reversed.

Granted, Musk is a narcissistic arse, but my experience with the company, in general, it's employees, blows my experiences with other brands away. Musk IS NOT TESLA, despite his attempts to have us believe otherwise. There's thousands of employees who represent Tesla. Their customer service has been A+ and I've never spoken to him. Don't feed his narcissism by giving credit, or blame, for what happens there.

FlashUNC

04-24-2019, 12:18 PM

Since I don't have 2.5hrs to spend on this, can someone post a summary? What's so 'hard to believe' about a future full of autonomous vehicles? A mere 100yrs ago, they wouldn't have believed there'd be 2 autos capable of 100mph speeds in every American garage.

Elon makes a bunch of fantastical claims unsupported by reality.

Notably that they can solve with software what others are pursuing via a combination of hardware and software for autonomous driving.

There's also the claim these autonomous cars can serve as on demand rideshare vehicles that operate while the owner is doing other things.

It's lunacy.

mistermo

04-24-2019, 12:22 PM

Elon makes a bunch of fantastical claims unsupported by reality.

With respect, he doesn't live in reality, which is why he's one of the greatest innovators of our time.

bob heinatz

04-24-2019, 12:38 PM

Not a fan nor do I want to listen 2+hrs. It will only take one fatal crash and the public will turn on these cars and the courts will bankrupt the company.

MattTuck

04-24-2019, 12:57 PM

In other news, the porsche Taycan is starting production in the fall. Some have called it the Tesla killer. Not sure of that, but I do think the styling is better than what I've seen out of Tesla.

Unclear whether the Taycan will sell without the charging network that tesla has, but it is probably the first real apples to apples high performance all electric competition that Tesla will face.

FlashUNC

04-24-2019, 01:11 PM

With respect, he doesn't live in reality, which is why he's one of the greatest innovators of our time.

Lol.

fkelly

04-24-2019, 02:56 PM

Since I don't have 2.5hrs to spend on this, can someone post a summary?

Okay, I watched in two segments. I never would have hung in there for 2+ hours if it wasn't fascinating and informative.

I was a Musk and Tesla skeptic before. Now I might even consider buying a Tesla ... though there are some practical questions related to quality control and recharging that I'd need to address.

As someone else said: Musk has quality people with PH.d's from top level institutions and years of practical experience working for him. Two of them presented the hardware and software underpinnings. They are heavily into neural networks which basically mean "training" the software by giving it millions of examples. They use their current fleet as the basis for generating the examples and the software gets better exponentially by learning from real life examples (and some human "coaching"). They are using cameras (as opposed to lidar) and de-emphasize the role of GPS since, if GPS is "wrong" it can lead to bad things happening.

Musk is picturing a world filled with robotaxis and the removal of steering wheels and accelerators within a fairly short time frame: 2 or 3 years. And full self-driving capabilities within that same time frame. We'll see soon enough ... but what you buy now will be able to be fully self driving based on software upgrades if it turns out to work.

He states that buying any other model car now is like buying a horse. "I mean if you want to buy a horse buy one" ...

It's a good investment of 2 hours to watch for yourself.

Tickdoc

04-24-2019, 03:04 PM

I love my "horse".

https://i.imgur.com/vn5u8dil.jpg

fkelly

04-24-2019, 03:04 PM

Elon makes a bunch of fantastical claims unsupported by reality.

Notably that they can solve with software what others are pursuing via a combination of hardware and software for autonomous driving.

I don't want to take on the role of a Tesla fanboy. I still have open questions. But the presentation makes it clear that both hardware and software are involved. They spent two years developing the computer (hardware) that underpins the self-driving car ... it's fully redundant within a given car and appears well thought out in terms of security ... only software that is cryptographically signed by Tesla will run on it. There are, I believe, 8 cameras plus radar in the car looking in all directions. So it's not just or even primarily software.

People are driving the cars with some of the self-driving features activated today. And while there have been some well publicized accidents, overall I think they are a lot safer than human driven cars.

mistermo

04-24-2019, 03:05 PM

The self driving feature on my car has gotten appreciably and noticeably better in the 9 months I've owned it. There's serious road construction near me and the construction barrels are moved daily. The car "sees" this and can navigate through this fairly well. No way GPS could anticipate this.

I was a skeptic too, at one time. I think there's a decent chance Tesla may not survive in it's current incarnation, but there should be no denying it's disruptor and innovator status. I'm driving to OH and back tomorrow. Presently n=1 when looking for eCars that could fill that duty.

FlashUNC

04-24-2019, 03:35 PM

I don't want to take on the role of a Tesla fanboy. I still have open questions. But the presentation makes it clear that both hardware and software are involved. They spent two years developing the computer (hardware) that underpins the self-driving car ... it's fully redundant within a given car and appears well thought out in terms of security ... only software that is cryptographically signed by Tesla will run on it. There are, I believe, 8 cameras plus radar in the car looking in all directions. So it's not just or even primarily software.

People are driving the cars with some of the self-driving features activated today. And while there have been some well publicized accidents, overall I think they are a lot safer than human driven cars.

A guy got decapitated watching a Harry Potter movie rather than driving and paying attention to the road and the car missed a tractor trailer in front of it turning left.

If you trust that company to deliver fully autonomous driving in a year when other automakers are saying it's years off, if ever. Sure.

unterhausen

04-24-2019, 04:52 PM

the most recent death I'm aware of was because Tesla relies on cameras, but sometimes cameras just can't see a concrete embankment and there are no white lines on the road to guide the car with either. Relying on plastic barrels and road markings being there is a recipe for disaster, but that's what they are doing. I am pretty sure any successful system is going to have Lidar. I feel fairly confident that a person would have picked up on the truck being across the road too.

fkelly

04-24-2019, 05:05 PM

There are long discussions, at several points in the presentation, on Lidar. Listen and judge for yourself. Musk and his staff are dead set against Lidar.

There are going to be accidents and even deaths no matter what technologies are used. The question is whether they will be fewer and less severe than continuing to rely and human drivers and what the best combination of technologies is. We won't settle that here.

MattTuck

04-24-2019, 05:56 PM

Burned 10 million greenbacks in q1. PER DAY.

:eek::eek::eek:

Even if they are making 10% profit on a $60k car, they would need to sell 1,700 cars just to make up one days cash burn.

mistermo

04-24-2019, 06:29 PM

There's many who think their margin per car on the Model 3 is closer to 30%. No one knows for sure, but given the significantly reduced number of parts in each car, that's not unreasonable to assume. Their overhead costs, somewhat fixed, are the killer. At this point, volume is what they need (and are getting) to absorb the fixed OH costs.

Burned 10 million greenbacks in q1. PER DAY.

:eek::eek::eek:

Even if they are making 10% profit on a $60k car, they would need to sell 1,700 cars just to make up one days cash burn.

alancw3

04-25-2019, 03:08 AM

interesting article on google news this morning to somewhat support elpn musk/Tesla direction on autonomous cars:

https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-was-right-cheap-cameras-could-replace-lidar-1834266742

peanutgallery

04-25-2019, 05:50 AM

Did you guys learn nothing from the Terminator movies?

SkyNet is tricking Elon into all of this:)

soulspinner

04-25-2019, 06:15 AM

fit and finish isn't great yet and they need $ now. The Tesla 3 doesn't seem to be of the quality of their other offerings, either...…….YMMV

marciero

04-25-2019, 06:25 AM

...

People are driving the cars with some of the self-driving features activated today. And while there have been some well publicized accidents, overall I think they are a lot safer than human driven cars.

I think so, but people seem much less tolerant of error with autonomous vehicles than human-operated. It's more akin to planes, where the public expects perfect safety.

oldpotatoe

04-25-2019, 06:34 AM

I just read on smart news that he/they are working on a battery pack that will last 1,000,000 miles. That seems quite a feat if achieved.
The batteries now lose 10 percent of rated capacity at 150,000 miles.

Better also include a way to charge them as quickly as going to a gas station and filling up with petrol now..plus similar range...

Hopefully that same battery technology will filter to solar/wind and storage for when the wind doesn't blow at night..plus November 2020..:)

The 'future' is definitely electric power, generated with something besides crushed and preserved 'dino' guts..

alancw3

04-25-2019, 09:25 AM

imho what will make electric cars a game changer is when they develop a battery that can drive the car 400 miles and then be recharged in about 1/2 an hour. hell I'll buy one of those cars, if for no other reason than to just stick it to big oil. I do have to think that technology is coming soon. I hope!! wait and for everyday use have a recharging dock that you can just drive over in your garage and have start recharging. that would be my wish list. if that were met I would buy an electric car in a heartbeat. and I think millions of others would do the same. so let's hope we get to that point very soon.

MattTuck

04-25-2019, 10:13 AM

Granted, Musk is a narcissistic arse, but my experience with the company, in general, it's employees, blows my experiences with other brands away. Musk IS NOT TESLA, despite his attempts to have us believe otherwise. There's thousands of employees who represent Tesla. Their customer service has been A+ and I've never spoken to him. Don't feed his narcissism by giving credit, or blame, for what happens there.

Yes, I should be clear. There are many people that are earnestly making livelihoods at the company and I don't want it to fail just because I think their CEO is a huckster charlaton. Indeed, his over the top persona and failure to meet his own outrageous promises may be the very thing that dooms the company.

At the same time, he is the chief executive officer and his behavior sets the tone for those at the firm. As a leader, you don't get to delegate the culture of an organization. It starts with you.

imho what will make electric cars a game changer is when they develop a battery that can drive the car 400 miles and then be recharged in about 1/2 an hour. hell I'll buy one of those cars, if for no other reason than to just stick it to big oil. I do have to think that technology is coming soon. I hope!! wait and for everyday use have a recharging dock that you can just drive over in your garage and have start recharging. that would be my wish list. if that were met I would buy an electric car in a heartbeat. and I think millions of others would do the same. so let's hope we get to that point very soon.

Not a chemist or physicist, but I've watched a couple presentations that argue lithium ion is running up against the limits of the chemistry. There may be incremental improvements still on the table, but a step function improvement is only possible with a new battery chemistry.

As Old Potato notes, despite its many detrimental impacts, dinosaur based fuel still has a tremendous amount of energy per unit volume/weight. So, without a price on carbon emissions (ie. carbon tax), that chemistry challenge is significant, to say the least.

There's many who think their margin per car on the Model 3 is closer to 30%. No one knows for sure, but given the significantly reduced number of parts in each car, that's not unreasonable to assume. Their overhead costs, somewhat fixed, are the killer. At this point, volume is what they need (and are getting) to absorb the fixed OH costs.

30% seems plausible in the short term. Given the global competitiveness of the auto industry, I have some reservations projecting 30% in perpetuity -- especially as they move down market. That said, my point was more about how many cars they need to sell at some future point at some profit margin (whether it be 10% or 30%), to recoup the 10 million they spent each day last quarter. Even if they're making 15K per car, they will need to sell a lot of future cars.

dancinkozmo

04-25-2019, 10:17 AM

musk is the 21st century p.t barnum

alancw3

04-25-2019, 10:38 AM

musk is the 21st century p.t barnum

that is exactly what they said that about Steve Jobs twenty years ago! I actually wonder if Steve were alive today if Apple would not have bought Tesla or did some kind of partnership? jobs and musk seem to be visionaries and nobody likes them until their vision comes to pass. and then everybody is on board. just the nature of human beings. just saying.

Mark McM

04-25-2019, 10:59 AM

that is exactly what they said that about Steve Jobs twenty years ago! I actually wonder if Steve were alive today if Apple would not have bought Tesla or did some kind of partnership? jobs and musk seem to be visionaries and nobody likes them until their vision comes to pass. and then everybody is on board. just the nature of human beings. just saying.

Jobs was nothing like Musk. Apple was not a technology innovator - the vast majority of the technology in Apple products had actually been developed elsewhere. Jobs' key contribution was pre-visualizing new ways to use that technology, how it could be integrated into peoples lives, and creating the infrastructures necessary to allow people to utilize it.

Instead, Musk is making huge assumptions and suppositions about technology that doesn't exist yet (and often over-reaching in his predictions). Does anyone really need and want a HyperLoop? While Apple sold new uses for today's technology, Musk is selling dreams of future technologies.

mistermo

04-25-2019, 11:03 AM

Better also include a way to charge them as quickly as going to a gas station and filling up with petrol now...

Last month Tesla began rolling out V3 superchargers that will provide up to 1000mi in an hour of charging. I’ve seen a peak of about 400mi in my experience. Usually it averages about 250 miles in an hour.

MattTuck

04-25-2019, 11:11 AM

Jobs was nothing like Musk. Apple was not a technology innovator - the vast majority of the technology in Apple products had actually been developed elsewhere. Jobs' key contribution was pre-visualizing new ways to use that technology, how it could be integrated into peoples lives, and creating the infrastructures necessary to allow people to utilize it.

Instead, Musk is making huge assumptions and suppositions about technology that doesn't exist yet (and often over-reaching in his predictions). Does anyone really need and want a HyperLoop? While Apple sold new uses for today's technology, Musk is selling dreams of future technologies.

Also, after almost losing Apple once, Jobs became extremely conservative with regards to Apple's finances and keeping an eye on cash -- beyond what was reasonable. Musk seems to have the complete opposite approach. Profligate spending with the "if you build it, they will come" mindset.

alancw3

04-25-2019, 11:43 AM

Jobs was nothing like Musk. Apple was not a technology innovator - the vast majority of the technology in Apple products had actually been developed elsewhere. Jobs' key contribution was pre-visualizing new ways to use that technology, how it could be integrated into peoples lives, and creating the infrastructures necessary to allow people to utilize it.

Instead, Musk is making huge assumptions and suppositions about technology that doesn't exist yet (and often over-reaching in his predictions). Does anyone really need and want a HyperLoop? While Apple sold new uses for today's technology, Musk is selling dreams of future technologies.

but is that not what a visionary does? I think you are under valuing Steve Jobs contributions to where we are today. he was probably a sob of a boss for what he thought could be accomplished and demanded from his employees. but again is that not what has happened over and over again in life to get where we are today? I do not pretend to be an Elon Musk fan but i do have to give credit where credit is do and imho mush is right up there with jobs.

Mark McM

04-25-2019, 12:32 PM

but is that not what a visionary does? I think you are under valuing Steve Jobs contributions to where we are today. he was probably a sob of a boss for what he thought could be accomplished and demanded from his employees. but again is that not what has happened over and over again in life to get where we are today? I do not pretend to be an Elon Musk fan but i do have to give credit where credit is do and imho mush is right up there with jobs.

No, I'm not under valuing Steve Jobs contributions. Jobs took technology that already existed in the lab, and made it a practical reality for everyday people. Musk takes technology that doesn't exist yet, and sells it to unwitting investors as if it does exist. Elizabeth Holmes (of Theranos) thought she was Steve Jobs, too. But she turned out to be a huckster, making promises she couldn't deliver on. Musk may not be as bad as Holmes, but he's no Steve Jobs, either.

If Steve Jobs didn't actually invent new technology, was he still important? In some ways, he was more important than the inventors. Here's an example:

Pop quiz - Who invented the electric light bulb? If you said Thomas Edison, you'd be wrong. The electric light bulb was actually invented by Charles Swann. But the electric light bulb invention languished for years with no practical way to use it, before Thomas Edison had the vision to assemble all the pieces of existing technology to develop a practical system to deliver electric lighting to the masses.

Similarly, Jobs was the key individual to develop the music downloading/streaming industry. The MP3 player already existed before the iPod, the internet already existed, file download systems already existed, online retailing already existed, etc. But there was no easy way to get new music onto your MP3 player, so the online music download market just didn't exist - at least not until Jobs put together all the pieces.

verticaldoug

04-25-2019, 01:33 PM

fkelly

04-25-2019, 03:51 PM

To design your own chip for autonomous driving when you are then competing against the likes of Intel, NVDIA , Xlinix, AMD is nuts

They seem to have done a great job with the new chip. A chip for autonomous driving has to have some features, such as redundancy and built in cryptographic functions to keep hackers out, that chips from the chip companies may not have. And a key feature of Tesla's hardware/software combination it that it provides a way to constantly feed images back from the "fleet" of Tesla's out on the road that will maintain a cycle of continuous improvement for the self-driving software. And the software is designed to take advantage of that since it uses machine learning and annotated images from real life driving as a basis for improvements. In other words it will continue getting better.

I suspect that chip and software costs are a small fraction of what it takes to run a manufacturing plant for 5000 cars a month.

paredown

04-25-2019, 06:45 PM

No, I'm not under valuing Steve Jobs contributions. Jobs took technology that already existed in the lab, and made it a practical reality for everyday people. Musk takes technology that doesn't exist yet, and sells it to unwitting investors as if it does exist. Elizabeth Holmes (of Theranos) thought she was Steve Jobs, too. But she turned out to be a huckster, making promises she couldn't deliver on. Musk may not be as bad as Holmes, but he's no Steve Jobs, either.

If Steve Jobs didn't actually invent new technology, was he still important? In some ways, he was more important than the inventors. Here's an example:

Pop quiz - Who invented the electric light bulb? If you said Thomas Edison, you'd be wrong. The electric light bulb was actually invented by Charles Swann. But the electric light bulb invention languished for years with no practical way to use it, before Thomas Edison had the vision to assemble all the pieces of existing technology to develop a practical system to deliver electric lighting to the masses.

Similarly, Jobs was the key individual to develop the music downloading/streaming industry. The MP3 player already existed before the iPod, the internet already existed, file download systems already existed, online retailing already existed, etc. But there was no easy way to get new music onto your MP3 player, so the online music download market just didn't exist - at least not until Jobs put together all the pieces.

If I were to cast the players, Edison is more like Bill Gates--ruthless, anti-competitive and willing to take credit for the inventions of others. And package the "electric home" by assembling all the parts to make it work as you say.

Musk is like Tesla (the man)--wild man innovation, but not so good on the implementation (although the edge clearly goes to Tesla on basic science, I think). Tesla got eaten alive by Edison, which is why we have AC current as well as incandescent light bulbs...

Steve Jobs--a different kind of visionary. There's the famous quote of Henry Ford that Jobs was fond of quoting; "If you asked Americans what they wanted, they would have said a better horse." Jobs had that same ability to see what people wanted before they knew they wanted it--but I think Musk does try to do the "visionary" thing a little too hard.

My lovely wife came home with a report from a local Sierra Club group--a bunch of committed activist suburban women, who are all about saving the environment--and not one of them drives an electric car, and not one gave it serious consideration even though some have recently purchased a new car.

Why?--simple. They want the new car to be like the old car--roomy, 4 wheel drive, preferably an SUV/Crossover style--because that is what works for their current lives--kids/sports/hauling crap/vacations/large pets--the usual list. These are the decision makers for their families (and the women are that for a lot of other families) about vehicles--and they are NOT interested in driverless, electric, zoomy, future-is-now vehicles.

Now take the Steve Jobs/Henry Ford line--they want a better horse. And I have yet to see a compelling proposition from any of the electric car makers to convince them that what they really want is the paradigm shift like going from a horse and buggy to the 'new, new transportation unit.' It will happen, but the value proposition is not there yet.

54ny77

04-25-2019, 07:04 PM

verticaldoug

04-25-2019, 07:38 PM

The main difference between Jobs and Musk is Jobs did it all with equity capital, corporate debt and cash, and Musk did it all with equity capital, corporate debt and a MASSIVE BOATLOAD of taxpayer cash.

Except, you can equate Apple's massive tax dodging schemes as taxpayer cash. (a gov subsidy or tax expenditure are roughly the same) In this realm, Apple is the top of the heap.

54ny77

04-25-2019, 08:38 PM

Fair analogy.

Apple is one of the biggest institutional investors out their with their cash hoard. Cash/treasury mgmt at that shop must be a comical nightmare to ensure tax triggers aren't tripped.

Except, you can equate Apple's massive tax dodging schemes as taxpayer cash. (a gov subsidy or tax expenditure are roughly the same) In this realm, Apple is the top of the heap.

pbarry

04-25-2019, 09:03 PM

Except, you can equate Apple's massive tax dodging schemes as taxpayer cash. (a gov subsidy or tax expenditure are roughly the same) In this realm, Apple is the top of the heap.

So true. Some folks I work with like to direct their ire on alternative energy cos. because of well publicized tax breaks on solar panels, electric cars, et al. Meanwhile Apple and many others use every loophole available to buttress their bottom lines, most of those affect Treasury's bottom line as well..

DOT allows longer driving periods and shorter breaks between weeks/restarts only for oil and gas OTR truckers. Have yet to hear anyone complain about a yuge subsidy for the fossil fuel industry.

fogrider

04-26-2019, 01:30 AM

Last month Tesla began rolling out V3 superchargers that will provide up to 1000mi in an hour of charging. I’ve seen a peak of about 400mi in my experience. Usually it averages about 250 miles in an hour.

I have yet to find a V3, I can get up to 464/hr for maybe 10 minutes with V2 superchargers...just gives me enough time to get a coffee and restroom...not sure why everyone feels like they need to charge any faster...remember most of the charging is done at home overnight and never going to the gas station would be fine with me!

As for Tesla 'burning' through cash, call it what you want, but new models don't just build themselves! Apple farms out the manufacturing of their products, Tesla has to build the factories. And the superchargers don't just pop up...it all cost something and its worth something. EVs drive so much better than gas cars!

MattTuck

04-26-2019, 08:16 AM

Except, you can equate Apple's massive tax dodging schemes as taxpayer cash. (a gov subsidy or tax expenditure are roughly the same) In this realm, Apple is the top of the heap.

I can see that point, but it is a weaker argument. To my knowledge, there is no special tax break for big tech companies. It is an arbitrage of a patchwork of tax regimes that gives rise to the tax advantage. Not a tax credit directly aimed at Apples iPhone X. Further, Apple would still be profitable without the tax shenanigans.

Tesla on the other hand would certainly sell fewer cars if the subsidy was not available. And add on to that it is a tax subsidy that benefits the well to do who have the means to buy a Tesla.

I have yet to find a V3, I can get up to 464/hr for maybe 10 minutes with V2 superchargers...just gives me enough time to get a coffee and restroom...not sure why everyone feels like they need to charge any faster...remember most of the charging is done at home overnight and never going to the gas station would be fine with me!

As for Tesla 'burning' through cash, call it what you want, but new models don't just build themselves! Apple farms out the manufacturing of their products, Tesla has to build the factories. And the superchargers don't just pop up...it all cost something and its worth something. EVs drive so much better than gas cars!

10 minutes for a full charge seems on par with gas stations. Kudos to them to them for reaching that parity. It opens the long distance travel use case, which seems to be a major sticking point for EVs. Yes, most people just commute back and forth to work. But most people also value the optionality of taking their car on a 500 mile trip over the weekend.

The one thing I'll admit is a deep ambivalence about Musk. While I believe Tesla, Hyper Loop and Boring Co are all loaded with over the top hype and unrealistic promises, I do see what is being done at SpaceX and can only be impressed.

alancw3

04-26-2019, 09:10 AM

first off let me be clear before I started this thread I was not a fan of Elon Musk as I thought kind of a p.t. Barnum. but after watching all 2.35 hours of that investor day presentation I feel different. all I was trying to point out was the thought process that was put in to make Tesla choose a different path to autonomy cars i.e. computers, software and cameras versus the more popular Lidar thinking of the other big players. I personally think the other big players chose the path of least resistance for their own personal gain and news braking notoriety but that is just me. for me what is more important than autonomy cars are electric cars that can provide decent mileage range (400) and be recharged within a half an hour or so. when that happens I think electric cars become a real competitor to fossil fuel cars. for me to buy an electric car (which I would like to do). I need to be able to drive from the north east to Florida with one or two charges along the way that don't take more than half an hour. then I am on board. I hope it happens.

fkelly

04-26-2019, 09:24 AM

first off let me be clear before I started this thread I was not a fan of Elon Musk as I thought kind of a p.t. Barnum. but after watching all 2.35 hours of that investor day presentation I feel different.

I am with you 100% on what you are saying and thank your for posting the link. I also took the time to watch the full video. I would not have stayed with it for 2 and a half hours if it wasn't fascinating and informative. I'm with you on the recharging issues too. Just did some googling about recharging times and they aren't as bad as I thought but still not acceptable.

I have concerns also about Tesla's financial viability mid and longer term. Don't want to plunk down 40k or more for a car and then have them go belly up. For now my 2005 Subie sits in the garage most of time, costs me almost nothing to operate and gets me where I need to go.

CunegoFan

04-26-2019, 06:08 PM

bfd

04-26-2019, 07:31 PM

Things could be worse. Musk could be trying to keep his auto company afloat by selling cocaine.

I think Musk deserves a lot of credit. He may be bit of a huckster. He have gone mad over the last couple of years. But he managed to build something that has moved the acceptance of an important technology forward. Electric cars used to be dorkmobiles bought by weirdos, much like recumbent bikes. Tesla turned them into something trendy and aspirational. I see Teslas everywhere. No matter what happens to Tesla in the future, Musk will have played an important part in changing transportation.

SpaceX ...

[Musk could be trying to keep his auto company afloat by selling cocaine.]

Lol, I love that reference to the late John Z. Delorean....

I agree that EVs use to be thought of as dorkmobiles bought by weirdos, look at the BMW i3. Lol!

But Seriously, Teslas are everywhere and the most advanced car on the market. But, if you want one, get it now or at least before June 30th if you want the Federal tax credit of $3750. Good Luck!

Mr. Pink

04-26-2019, 07:54 PM

[Musk could be trying to keep his auto company afloat by selling cocaine.]

Lol, I love that reference to the late John Z. Delorean....

I agree that EVs use to be thought of as dorkmobiles bought by weirdos, look at the BMW i3. Lol!

But Seriously, Teslas are everywhere and the most advanced car on the market. But, if you want one, get it now or at least before June 30th if you want the Federal tax credit of $3750. Good Luck!

Im pretty convinced that Musk has a serious drug problem, especially after his announcement about the leaf blowers. Its pretty amazing that a lot of fairly smart people with a lot of money still take him seriously.

The plan here is to drain capital from places where it could do much more effective things and destroy our already woefully unfunded public transit system and create traffic nightmares all over America while making rich, bored, investors poorer in the process. It's bizarre.

Teslas aren't being bought by dorks, they're being snapped up by men in midlife crisis mode to impress the next trophy wife, saying, I have money to waste, but, I'm also a sensitive guy. I care. My profession is probably destroying the world somehow, and I live in a house surrounded by similar homes that do much more harm to the climate than a mere auto, but, I care. Let's drive to my beach house I built on a fragile dune that's five times bigger than an average home, the home I use a few weeks a year. Don't worry, I left the air conditioning on.

And, Teslas are not "everywhere". You must live in a bubble like my hood, where everyone makes enormous amounts of money and spends it faster (and are probably as asset poor as a deplorable), but you should get out more. 80% percent of Americans can't afford an expensive fashion statement like a Tesla.

Mr. Pink

04-27-2019, 12:27 AM

PALO ALTO, CA—Assuring investors that the rogue vehicle would be found and reprogrammed as soon as possible, Tesla announced Thursday that the company had posted a massive first-quarter loss after a self-driving car absconded with $702 million in cash. “Financially speaking, we could have never foreseen that one of our new Model 3s would wake itself up last night, run over several security officers, and slam its way through a double-reinforced, 3.5-foot-thick bank vault,” said CEO Elon Musk, adding that he was “totally blindsided” when he arrived at Tesla headquarters this morning to find the floor covered with loose $1,000 bills and walls filled with countless car-sized holes. “Again, just because the vehicle grabbed as much cash as it could, took a joy ride through my office, and then tore off into the night at 200 mph does not leave me concerned in the slightest. If anything, once we locate the vehicle, reprogram it, and learn exactly how it became sentient, Tesla will be stronger than ever.” At press time, authorities confirmed that the self-driving car had been found, but after a tense standoff with police, the vehicle blew itself up, taking the Q1 earnings and several officers with it.

alancw3

04-27-2019, 01:02 PM

a question for all if you Tesla owners? so I am driving down the road and for whatever reason I have not paid attention and run out of juice and my car has died, is there some kind of emergency battery pack that can be plugged in to give you lets say up to 5-25 miles of power so you are not stranded and have to call a tow truck? I do have to say this whole thread with the responses has really peaked my interest in an electric car. if my concerns are met I am totally in. wait and this is from a person that grew up in the muscle car era and raced fossil fuel cars.

verticaldoug

04-27-2019, 01:37 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyQOhjm5NyA

https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/03/10/how-are-teslas-rescued-if-they-run-out-of-power-on-the-road/#5106a7903e48

flat bed tow truck is your answer

fkelly

04-27-2019, 01:38 PM

Google: "what happens when a tesla runs out of battery on the road" ... lot's of interesting stuff there. Basically you will wind up with a flat bed tow truck.

Supposedly the Tesla software knows where all the charging stations are and will give you plenty of warning to go to one if you are running low.

gdw

04-27-2019, 02:45 PM

A quick search on Google shows that most of the charging stations are in urban areas, near ski towns, or along well travelled highways and roads in Colorado. Not much if any coverage in the less populated Eastern plains and south/northwestern parts of the state. If the map is complete Teslas are a poor choice for someone looking to explore the west.

bfd

04-27-2019, 09:56 PM

Mr. Pink said:

[Im pretty convinced that Musk has a serious drug problem, especially after his announcement about the leaf blowers. Its pretty amazing that a lot of fairly smart people with a lot of money still take him seriously.]

I agree that Elon is a bit eccentric, but he's smart. Not only did he build the best EVs on the market, he also build his network of superchargers. Based on Level 3 (Direct Current) charging, nothing else can match it. Yes, there may be other Level 3 chargers out there, but very few cars can take advantage of it.

[The plan here is to drain capital from places where it could do much more effective things and destroy our already woefully unfunded public transit system and create traffic nightmares all over America while making rich, bored, investors poorer in the process. It's bizarre.]

America's public transit system has much more problems than Tesla trying to drain capital from them. The bottom line is America has designed its infrastructure to cater to cars, not mass transit. For example, unlike Europe, America's suburbs are designed around malls and people driving. Most places have little to no public transit. Blaming Tesla for draining capital from these places is misplaced. In fact, if cars are the focus of our transportation system, then putting people in EVs is the proper thing to do.

[Teslas aren't being bought by dorks, they're being snapped up by men in midlife crisis mode to impress the next trophy wife, saying, I have money to waste, but, I'm also a sensitive guy. I care. My profession is probably destroying the world somehow, and I live in a house surrounded by similar homes that do much more harm to the climate than a mere auto, but, I care. Let's drive to my beach house I built on a fragile dune that's five times bigger than an average home, the home I use a few weeks a year. Don't worry, I left the air conditioning on.]

What's the problem here? Tesla is a new company and it makes sense to market to people with money. If "men in midlife crisis mode" don't buy a Tesla, then they buy cars built by BMW, MB and Audi. Or they go for the "sports car" and get a Porsche, Ferrari or a Vette. Further, Japanese mfrs, who do sell econo/compact cars, also play this game and market to this same group or haven't you heard of Acura (Honda), Lexus (Toyota) and Infiniti (Nissan). Bottom line, lots of people buy fancy cars so why shouldn't Tesla market to them?!

[And, Teslas are not "everywhere". You must live in a bubble like my hood, where everyone makes enormous amounts of money and spends it faster (and are probably as asset poor as a deplorable), but you should get out more. 80% percent of Americans can't afford an expensive fashion statement like a Tesla.]

Fair enough. I do live in the SF Bay Area and Teslas are everywhere here. You're right that probably 80% of the people can't afford a $40K+ car. Yet, there are hundred of thousands, if not millions of people buying high end cars from traditional mfrs (BMW, MB, Audi, Lexus, etc.). Moreover, a lot of people don't buy regular sedans/coupes anymore, but instead prefer trucks and SUVs. But have you seen the prices of these huge vehicles?! You can easily spend $60k+ for a Ford F150 truck loaded up and there vehicles like the Lincoln Navigator that can be loaded up to sell for $100K?! Tell me those aren't fashion statements.

Bottom line, if you're into EVs, Tesla is the best car on the market. If you prefer an ICE car, then look to the traditional mfrs. But all of them make cars as expensive as Tesla and some selling 2-3x or more.

I guess its sort of like bikes. You can go into a shop and buy a nice $500 bike or you can spend $15K+ for the latest and greatest. It all depends on your budget and priorities!

Of course, YMMV!

Good Luck!

alancw3

04-28-2019, 05:14 AM

article in google news this morning that the new Tesla model Y roadster is claimed to have a range of 620 miles or just over 1000 km:

https://insideevs.com/news/346872/new-tesla-roadster-range-high/

verticaldoug

04-28-2019, 05:50 AM

article in google news this morning that the new Tesla model Y roadster is claimed to have a range of 620 miles or just over 1000 km:

https://insideevs.com/news/346872/new-tesla-roadster-range-high/

The Y is the new crossover of the 3 which is due in 2021 or 22. The roadster is something new and due later.

He can hit the extended mileage now if they designed away the trunk to add battery capacity. The curb weight of the car will just have to increase by 1000 lbs or so which will hurt the handling.

Panasonic has already tweaked the chemistry and packaging (the real innovation in my opinion) to increase efficiency. Battery chemistry is not new and I'd be very skeptical about getting 100% increase in efficiency with some new discovery. Up until now, his increase mileage has largely come from increase the amount of battery directly increasing the weight of the car. The weight difference between the 40Kwh S and the 100kwh S (P100D) is 630lbs with a mileage difference of 196miles. If you try to push the chemistry too much in the battery, you eventually get thermal runaway and boom. It's a problem tesla is aware of and have filed various patents to try and solve. It also can happen if you have a rupture and short circuit in the battery.

alancw3

04-28-2019, 06:58 AM

The Y is the new crossover of the 3 which is due in 2021 or 22. The roadster is something new and due later.

He can hit the extended mileage now if they designed away the trunk to add battery capacity. The curb weight of the car will just have to increase by 1000 lbs or so which will hurt the handling.

Panasonic has already tweaked the chemistry and packaging (the real innovation in my opinion) to increase efficiency. Battery chemistry is not new and I'd be very skeptical about getting 100% increase in efficiency with some new discovery. Up until now, his increase mileage has largely come from increase the amount of battery directly increasing the weight of the car. The weight difference between the 40Kwh S and the 100kwh S (P100D) is 630lbs with a mileage difference of 196miles. If you try to push the chemistry too much in the battery, you eventually get thermal runaway and boom. It's a problem tesla is aware of and have filed various patents to try and solve. It also can happen if you have a rupture and short circuit in the battery.

I agree at some point increasing the battery size becomes counter production in overall performance and handling. personally a new battery type breakthrough is what is needed to make electric cars more mainstay. it has been rumored for years that that is just around the corner, however it has not happened to date. let's keep our fingers crossed!

Mr. Pink

04-28-2019, 08:46 AM

America's public transit system has much more problems than Tesla trying to drain capital from them. The bottom line is America has designed its infrastructure to cater to cars, not mass transit. For example, unlike Europe, America's suburbs are designed around malls and people driving. Most places have little to no public transit. Blaming Tesla for draining capital from these places is misplaced. In fact, if cars are the focus of our transportation system, then putting people in EVs is the proper thing to do.

This is the same cynicism that is rooted in this flawed idea that Americans are indocrinated into, that we are exceptional, we are the best country in the world, we have made all the right decisions, and, if only the rest of the world would wise up and follow us. Or, maybe it's just worse, and, as you say, that's just the way it is, momentum and inertia and all that, can't be reversed, so, full steam ahead. It's why we can't have a sensible, humane health care system like every other nation in the developed world, because, no, no, we're different! We're exceptional! Yay, markets!
Most anyine can see that our devotion to the car and the paving over of exurbia that it enabled is the real enviornmental disaster here, and building millions of electric cars to accomadate that infrastructure is hardly the solution. Maybe auto emmisions will be cut, of course, but the ungodly sprawl of much more damaging homes and strip malls and corporate parks will continue, maybe even accelerate. And, of course, it's not as though the power needed to fuel these cars comes out of thin air. You tell me how we build a safe supply to recharge all of them. Be careful what you hope for. Just remember, the automobile was sold to the people as a pollution fix, because it would, and did, eliminate millions of tons of horse manure from the roads of America's cities and rural areas. How did that one work out?

Visit Europe sometime. It's nice. Tons of cheap to affordable transit on many levels. That's where those socialist nightmare governments decided to invest, instead of roads, roads, and more roads. People arent going bankrupt from cancer, either, but that's a whole other thing, I guess. It's right there, it can be done, as long as you first start thinking that it can. But, as long as our best and brightest continue to worship the quick buck and individual "freedom", we're doomed.

oldpotatoe

04-28-2019, 08:54 AM

I agree at some point increasing the battery size becomes counter production in overall performance and handling. personally a new battery type breakthrough is what is needed to make electric cars more mainstay. it has been rumored for years that that is just around the corner, however it has not happened to date. let's keep our fingers crossed!

Battery charging or battery swap as well as bigger range.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=rastarfarian+schene+in+5th+element&view=detail&mid=41C490ED65B2474DE3EB41C490ED65B2474DE3EB&FORM=VIRE

fkelly

04-28-2019, 09:37 AM

Battery charging or battery swap as well as bigger range.

The battery swapping idea has been around for a while: latest iteration is NIO in China:

https://www.teslarati.com/nio-battery-swapping-station-power-swap/

So far it has gone belly-up with every iteration. I think the batteries are too "designed-in" to the cars to make it practical. Musk's idea for robo-taxis might be a partial substitute. Just swap out the entire car when you need a charge.

Bigger range might be nice but most of us can't drive much beyond 300 miles without needing a break for other reasons than a fill-up. If you could be assured of swapping out the battery or the entire car in 15 minutes or less the whole idea could become practical.

Aside: a few years ago I visited an auto museum up in Saratoga Park (about a mile from the old Serotta factory). There were auto models from at least a dozen now-defunct manufacturers that had been popular in the 1920's. I think we're seeing that kind of "churn" with electric car and self-driving car companies now and will continue to see it for another decade until things settle out. Tesla may not be around after that and there will be some consolidation but it seems like the electric and self-driving ideas will dominate in the last 3/4 of 21 century. How exactly it will play out is anyone's guess.

bfd

04-28-2019, 10:13 AM

This is the same cynicism that is rooted in this flawed idea that Americans are indocrinated into, that we are exceptional, we are the best country in the world, we have made all the right decisions, and, if only the rest of the world would wise up and follow us. Or, maybe it's just worse, and, as you say, that's just the way it is, momentum and inertia and all that, can't be reversed, so, full steam ahead. It's why we can't have a sensible, humane health care system like every other nation in the developed world, because, no, no, we're different! We're exceptional! Yay, markets!
Most anyine can see that our devotion to the car and the paving over of exurbia that it enabled is the real enviornmental disaster here, and building millions of electric cars to accomadate that infrastructure is hardly the solution. Maybe auto emmisions will be cut, of course, but the ungodly sprawl of much more damaging homes and strip malls and corporate parks will continue, maybe even accelerate. And, of course, it's not as though the power needed to fuel these cars comes out of thin air. You tell me how we build a safe supply to recharge all of them. Be careful what you hope for. Just remember, the automobile was sold to the people as a pollution fix, because it would, and did, eliminate millions of tons of horse manure from the roads of America's cities and rural areas. How did that one work out?

Visit Europe sometime. It's nice. Tons of cheap to affordable transit on many levels. That's where those socialist nightmare governments decided to invest, instead of roads, roads, and more roads. People arent going bankrupt from cancer, either, but that's a whole other thing, I guess. It's right there, it can be done, as long as you first start thinking that it can. But, as long as our best and brightest continue to worship the quick buck and individual "freedom", we're doomed.

Europe is different. After WW2, when they rebuild, they too moved away from large cities and expanded to "suburbs," just like us. However, what they did smart was also extend their rail system so that people could travel from the burbs to the big city by mass transit. In contrast, America just built freeways and didn't invest in mass transit. So our system incorrectly evolved and now we are paying for it.

Further, with our current administration, he is trying to move back to oil and fossil fuel as our primary source of energy. Even if its proven to be more expensive than alternative energy sources like solar, wind and hydro!

Then there's health care. You're right, we should have universal healthcare like just about every other country. But our system is rooted in capitalism and that's not going to happen for a long time, if ever.

So if cars are our future and ev is one way to reduce emissions, how do we charge them? Elon is trying to make his network based on a sustainable source - solar. I'm not sure how that is going, but he is slowly upgrading his supercharger to be faster, probably more of a priority, as the v3 chargers can charge at 1000 miles/hour instead of 400 miles/hour. Amazing.... But if we can refocus our efforts on generating sustainable energy like solar and wind, that is one way we can stop from being doomed.

Further, there are bills and a movement to make denser housing and put businesses near transit. Not sure if that is a solution as people tend to want their own space/house, especially when they start having families. But if that does happen, then the theory is less people will want to own cars. I know, Good Luck!

Mr. Pink

04-28-2019, 10:52 AM

Tax gas two or three bucks, at least, gradually over a decade. Easy. But, no, where's the unicorn hunting profit in that?

MattTuck

05-24-2019, 10:57 AM

Good times....

apparently they're beginning to cut toilet paper from some Tesla facilities.

And employees are now detailing cars on their own time. Does anyone still believe this is a company deserving a $35B valuation?

One of the bottlenecks in deliveries is the detailing of the vehicles and as Tesla’s delivery volume increased, they relied on car washing businesses.

A source familiar with the matter says that some stores are now cutting down on the expense and in order to still complete the work, some employees are bringing the cars home and cleaning them on their own time.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/24/tesla-cost-cutting-effort-toilet-paper/

Even if you create the best technology out there (which is debatable), you still need a viable business model to generate cash flows.

alancw3

05-25-2019, 04:48 AM

yes, I guess at some point in time a new company has to put up or shut up. company with great ideas and poor execution to date. the other day there was an article in yahoo finance that apple had unsuccessfully tried to buy Tesla several years ago. just hope they can overcome their problems and become successful and survive. I also think that Wall Street is part of the problem with unrealistic expectations of the investment community.

mistermo

05-25-2019, 04:54 AM

Even if you create the best technology out there (which is debatable), you still need a viable business model to generate cash flows.

Which company comes even close? How is this debatable?

MattTuck

05-25-2019, 06:56 PM

Which company comes even close? How is this debatable?

I'm not sure what information I could give you to convince you that the point is debatable because I don't know how strongly you hold the position that Tesla's technology is superior.

Many other companies have decided that it isn't worth the risk to their customers' lives to put an experimental product onto public roads. (See table below, Source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_self-driving_car_fatalities)) So it makes it quite difficult to compare prototype level features that are not public from other firms with prototype features from Tesla that are public. If we could get an apples to apples test at scale, it would make the debate much simpler.

In a 2019 study, Navigant ranked Tesla quite low in their autonomous vehicle ranking. (Source, (https://www.wardsauto.com/technology/just-three-companies-top-navigant-s-autonomous-vehicle-ranking) Source (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-self-driving-race-navigant-results-2019/))
https://www.wardsauto.com/sites/wardsauto.com/files/styles/article_featured_standard/public/Navigant%20AV%20Board%202019_1.txt?itok=tvTgV7TS

A key factor in Navigant’s study is that its researchers evaluated companies based on actual autonomous features that need no human input, unlike Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assist system, which requires a fully alert human behind the wheel. It should also be noted that Tesla’s approach to attaining full-self driving is quite different than those employed by the leaders in Navigant’s research. For example, companies such as Waymo usually operate their self-driving vehicles exclusively in pre-determined areas, while Tesla does not.

Another quote from a recent article.
“It sounds like a pipe dream that he’s selling people,” said Raj Rajkumar, an electrical and computer engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University.

And on the topic of actual vehicle performance, the rumors are out that the Porsche Taycan is targeting a sub-8 minute time at Nurburgring (https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/28/porsche-taycan-sub-8-minute-nurburgring-lap/). The best Tesla time I could find was 9 minutes (https://electrek.co/2019/04/09/tesla-model-3-performance-nurburgring-race-track/). Granted, the Tesla is available NOW, while the Taycan is slated for release later this year.

On the battery and charging technology, I am not aware of any other companies on par with Tesla.

Not sure if any of that moves the needle on whether it is debatable that Tesla's tech is superior.

OtayBW

05-25-2019, 07:43 PM

What's interesting to me is that this whole thing is every bit about the AI Neural Net development as it is about the car - probably moreso. I just got done with a project where I collaborated with a world-class guy in this Deep Learning area, and it is is amazing what can be done. Even more amazing is what we will see in the short years to come....

fiamme red

05-25-2019, 09:38 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/business/highest-paid-ceos-2018.html

Despite all the structural forces aiding companies’ bottom lines and stock prices, boards continue to act as if C.E.O.s have unique powers to deliver better returns — and have gone to great lengths to compensate them. The most prominent example: Tesla approved a pay package to Elon Musk valued at as much as $2.3 billion. It’s not just the highest sum for last year; it’s the biggest ever, according to compensation experts. (More on Mr. Musk below.)

mj_michigan

05-26-2019, 08:38 AM

IMO, all the analyses and announcements in this space have to be take with a grain of salt and Elon Mask's with two.

mistermo

05-28-2019, 08:15 AM

I'm not sure what information I could give you to convince you that the point is debatable because I don't know how strongly you hold the position that Tesla's technology is superior.

I'm merely wondering why you think that Tesla's technology is rivaled by any other electric car EVER PRODUCED?

As you point out, the Taycan isn't available, so it's specious to compare Tesla to it, or any other future vehicle. Compare Tesla to Bolt, Leaf, iPace, Prius, BMW, etc and I don't see anyone who can come close to challenging on several fronts:

Range:
No other company compares on range and the charging network. It's really not debatable that it's the only car that could drive from Hanover to NYC and back without an overnight stop to recharge. None of the others can do that.

Safety:
All Teslas have scored 5 stars in every category tested by NHTSA. Can't get better than that.

Performance:
the iPace is quick, but Tesla has models quicker. Debatable? Maybe, but hardly.

Autonomous/Driver assistance:
The Navigant article is about FUTURE technology. Neither Tesla nor anyone else offer full autonomous driving. Which other car on the market TODAY comes CLOSE to Tesla's driver assist features? It's disingenuous to post the 4 deaths while using to driver assist and imply that it's an unsafe product. While ZERO deaths is the goal, nothing will ever be perfect. Where's the column for lives saved?

It's perfectly legit to hate on Elon, he's a douche. However, I find it really tough to see how it's debatable that Tesla isn't superior in electric car performance and technology, and also driver assist technology, as it stands TODAY. Show me another car or company that comes close TODAY, and I'll be impressed.

verticaldoug

05-28-2019, 11:43 AM

Since BEVs are less then 1% of the market, TESLA S probably is the best EV produced to date although NISSAN Leaf has sold more.

The important part to remember here is TESLA is making luxury cars and presently the ICE cars makers probably still make a higher quality product.

For driver assist, TESLA has pushed the boundary, but only marginally versus the latest Mercedes S amd E class. The latest BMW 5 series is not far behind. I think TESLA breaking with Mobile Eye and trying to do it all on their own is a losing strategy. Other companies have more resources and deeper pockets to throw at the problem. Up until now, TESLA was able to finance the future, but as the market becomes more skeptical, it will find it harder to finance the capex required.

Ultimately, in producing a car, the trade off is between innovation and bean counting. The million dollar question is it harder to mass produce a car profitably long term, or harder to innovate short term. I think the bean counters eventually rule since cars are largely a commodity product.

I think current ICE manufacturers will be able to produce competitive BEVs before TESLA can produce BEVs economically.
At least, as consumers, we will all benefit.

MattTuck

05-31-2019, 06:26 PM

Range:
No other company compares on range and the charging network. It's really not debatable that it's the only car that could drive from Hanover to NYC and back without an overnight stop to recharge. None of the others can do that.

to this point, I thought this was an interesting article.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/30/jaguar-i-pace-audi-e-tron-mercedes-eqc-the-electric-autobahn-range-disasters/

The entrance of the Model S in Germany was considered a failure about 5 years ago. Autos of this class were expected to be “Autobahn capable,” which in Germany translates to driving for 3 hours at 130 mph. Of course, nobody ever does it, beside car magazine journalists testing their (and the cars’) endurance while driving in the middle of the night. In day time there is far too much traffic to do stupid things like that.

It was the lack of range at those high speeds that doomed the Model S in Germany. The increasing resistance of the air is what is the biggest energy hog at high speeds. While the Model S has an excellent aerodynamic profile, the battery storage was just not big enough to have the range at high speeds that was expected from vehicles at this price class in Germany.

While the original Model S85 was not considered “Autobahn fähig” (highway capable) with an EPA rating of 265 miles (426 km), the current S100D has an EPA rating of 370 miles (595 km), probably just enough to be acceptable to snobbish German car journalists. The new range translates to a guestimated 2 hours at 100 mph (160 km/h). There have been some changes on the Model S in recent years, both in the capacity of the cars and the expectations of the public.

...

Now these journalists have the difficult task of being exalted about the new entrants in the luxury electric car market, the Jaguar I-PACE (EPA 234 miles / 377 km), the Audi e-tron (EPA 204 miles / 328 km), and the Mercedes EQC (EPA ~210–225 miles / 338–362 km). This is considerably less than the Model S85, a car with a far better aerodynamic profile. (Cd 0.29 for I-PACE, Cd 0.28 for e-tron and EQC, Cd 0.24 for Model S). These higher Cd values are a bit of a problem. With higher speeds, the car needs more power to overcome the air resistance. The higher the Cd value, the more power is needed for every extra mile per hour.

In the case of Autobahn range, the higher the Cd value, the faster the range decreases with higher speeds. The EPA rating is a mixture of urban driving, outside city (45 mph, or 72 km/h) driving, and a bit of highway driving. It is already too optimistic for pure American highway driving. I have not seen numbers for German Autobahn driving, but they will not be pretty. The range will drop with something like 40% when increasing the speed from 75 mph to 100 mph (121–161 km/h).

These three new competitors in the high-end luxury segment will have exhausted their battery after about 1 hour of driving at 100 mph (161 km/h). But these are not despised American intruders that need to be put in their place. These are the pride of the German (and British) car industry. Loyalty dictates a loving review.

sand fungus

05-31-2019, 08:43 PM

I have not watched the video, but there are a lot of questions in my mind how they can make a truly autonomous vehicle with the suite of sensors they have on board today. There is just too much risk in the edge cases to cover all scenarios.

The majority of the serious players in the autonomous space are using multiple lidar, multiple radars, multiple cameras - in all angles of view and will rely on V2I and V2V communication to help understand the environment around the vehicle. They are not doing this just to add redundancy they are doing it because they have specific edge cases that need to be legitimately covered to be safe. Cameras alone and radars just don't cover all these edge cases.

I don't think they can cover all the edge cases, no matter how good their software is, if they don't have the sensing hardware on board, that and there is not enough redundancy in my opinion to be safe enough for a fully autonomous vehicle.

Drmojo

05-31-2019, 11:10 PM

[QUOTE=mistermo;2546143]I'm merely wondering why you think that Tesla's technology is rivaled by any other electric car EVER PRODUCED?

As you point out, the Taycan isn't available, so it's specious to compare Tesla to it, or any other future vehicle. Compare Tesla to Bolt, Leaf, iPace, Prius, BMW, etc and I don't see anyone who can come close to challenging on several fronts:

Range:
No other company compares on range and the charging network. It's really not debatable that it's the only car that could drive from Hanover to NYC and back without an overnight stop to recharge. None of the others can do that.

As a Bolt owner for 2 years, after driving 3 Tesla models
My 220 mile range is plenty- drove from NoCal to Grants Pass OR
no problem
The Model 3 base price is 20 k more than my car and deluxe model 3s can set you back 60k
I have driven Models 3, X and S
They are great expensive cars
Like an I pad on wheels
My Bolt is like a quiet very fast go cart with MUCH better handiling on twisty roads-especially in Sport mode when is only 3% slower than Model 3t

bfd

06-01-2019, 12:43 AM

[QUOTE=mistermo;2546143]

As a Bolt owner for 2 years, after driving 3 Tesla models
My 220 mile range is plenty- drove from NoCal to Grants Pass OR
no problem
The Model 3 base price is 20 k more than my car and deluxe model 3s can set you back 60k
I have driven Models 3, X and S
They are great expensive cars
Like an I pad on wheels
My Bolt is like a quiet very fast go cart with MUCH better handiling on twisty roads-especially in Sport mode when is only 3% slower than Model 3t

220 mile range is pretty good. It is about the same as a Model 3 with the small battery, which cost between $35-39K or very close to the price of a Bolt.

So I guess the question is how long does it take to charge your Bolt? I presume you're using Level 2 (240v) charging? One advantage of Tesla is it charges at level 3 (direct current) and the version 2 charger charges at like 400 miles/hour and the new v3, that is coming out, will charge at like 1000 miles/hour.

Further, the network is in most major cities and highways so unless you're traveling to remote areas, it should be fairly easy to find a charging station.

I'm looking for another car and was considering a Model 3. But I want the big battery and RWD, that package will cost $51k out the door. With the big battery, the range is around 300-320 miles. Unfortunately, with two kids in college, that's a little more than I can spend.

YMMV!

Good Luck!

Dave B

06-01-2019, 06:04 AM

I love my "horse".

https://i.imgur.com/vn5u8dil.jpg

Yes! Now we are talking.

Tesla makes an incredibly complex “thinking” car and I admire the brain power to create this “future” of what driving should be.

I am glad I am still old school enough not to be terribly excited by an electric car. There is just no sound to the car, it feels benign and uninspired.

I myself love power and especially combustible power! I may not be a visionary like Musk, but those batteries don’t come cheap to produce and dispose of.

I drive a mustang and wouldn’t trade it for any Tesla...period. I do like Musk’s dream, but it isn’t my dream.

Drmojo

06-01-2019, 02:30 PM

[QUOTE=Drmojo;2547616]

220 mile range is pretty good. It is about the same as a Model 3 with the small battery, which cost between $35-39K or very close to the price of a Bolt.

So I guess the question is how long does it take to charge your Bolt? I presume you're using Level 2 (240v) charging? One advantage of Tesla is it charges at level 3 (direct current) and the version 2 charger charges at like 400 miles/hour and the new v3, that is coming out, will charge at like 1000 miles/hour.

Further, the network is in most major cities and highways so unless you're traveling to remote areas, it should be fairly easy to find a charging station.

I'm looking for another car and was considering a Model 3. But I want the big battery and RWD, that package will cost $51k out the door. With the big battery, the range is around 300-320 miles. Unfortunately, with two kids in college, that's a little more than I can spend.

YMMV!

Good Luck!
Cheapest Model 3 is has not hit the road
goodies tax et etc
my 2 pals spent 53 and 58 k for their model 3s
Hyudai Kona rated at 276 range—same price as Bolt!

Drmojo

06-01-2019, 02:40 PM

Fast charging 2 hours tops
But you pay for it
Level 2 I always charge for free my work my home town
about 20 miles in an hour
But park at work
Top off
Rarely dip below 100
I spent $1.30 on charging in the past 10 months
Tesla um, charges customers of Model 3 s to charge
But not model X owners—that car costs 100-120 k with goodies
AND
Bolt has room to put 2 bikes in car without removing front wheels folding back seat down
Can not do with Model 3
I checked

bfd

06-02-2019, 04:12 AM

[QUOTE=bfd;2547627]
Cheapest Model 3 is has not hit the road
goodies tax et etc
my 2 pals spent 53 and 58 k for their model 3s
Hyudai Kona rated at 276 range—same price as Bolt!

Disagree. My buddy got the Model 3 with the standard plus package, a $2k option at the time for a total of $37k plus tax and license. But the standard plus package is now like $4k so that same car will now cost your $40k plus tax and license. That's very close to the cost of the Bolt, but you get a range of 240 miles! check it out:

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design

I will agree that the Bolt with the hatchback makes putting in a bike easier. But fold down the seats on a Model 3 and take off the wheels and it fits!

Good Luck!

alancw3

06-02-2019, 10:14 AM

so I guess that Tesla has gone in different direction than the norm i.e. not using lidar vs. cameras and ai. I do not know which will ultimately play out but I do have to give credit to Elon Musk for his efforts. imho he has made some mistakes with regards to the media but that being said lets hope Tesla succeeds.

Drmojo

06-02-2019, 08:44 PM

[QUOTE=Drmojo;2547777]

Disagree. My buddy got the Model 3 with the standard plus package, a $2k option at the time for a total of $37k plus tax and license. But the standard plus package is now like $4k so that same car will now cost your $40k plus tax and license. That's very close to the cost of the Bolt, but you get a range of 240 miles! check it out:

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design

I will agree that the Bolt with the hatchback makes putting in a bike easier. But fold down the seats on a Model 3 and take off the wheels and it fits!

Good Luck!
I did not wait 2 years for an affordable Tesla
And I Love fitting in bike Without removing wheel
It is a big reason I got the Bolt
Take bike to many many charging stations with bike inside- ride home ot ride a mile or two
Come back voila

William

06-03-2019, 07:07 AM

Yes! Now we are talking.

Tesla makes an incredibly complex “thinking” car and I admire the brain power to create this “future” of what driving should be.

I am glad I am still old school enough not to be terribly excited by an electric car. There is just no sound to the car, it feels benign and uninspired.

I myself love power and especially combustible power! I may not be a visionary like Musk, but those batteries don’t come cheap to produce and dispose of.

I drive a mustang and wouldn’t trade it for any Tesla...period. I do like Musk’s dream, but it isn’t my dream.

If you prefer Old School...and want some new school, these guys are doing bolt in conversions with Tesla parts...and I think you would be surprised by the power.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOx5uCufB2Q

W.