Elan Musk promises full self-driveing car features by end of 2019

[Mark McM]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/elon-musk-tesla-will-have-all-its-self-driving-car-features-by-the-end-of-the-year.html

"I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year," Musk said. "Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

""However," he added, "people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case."

"My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year," he said. "That is when I think it would be safe enough for that."


Many people believe that practical, safe, self-driving cars are inevitable. But does anyone else believe that it happen by the end of next year?

[bicycletricycle]

I do not believe next year but Elon always exaggerates. I wonder what kind of testing the government will require for this kind of operation.

[Ozz]

Whenever I hear about self driving cars, this comes to mind:

"You are experiencing a car accident!" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqfs9yJALyc)

"The hell I am!!"

Cheers

[dancinkozmo]

the guy is seriously losing it

[slambers3]

I welcome robot drivers, assuming they’re more cognizant of cyclists/pedestrian traffic than the human driver being replaced.

[rnhood]

People will buy the hip and overpriced german cars like BMW cause they are fun to drive, then turn around and by driverless cars.

[kppolich]

Yet another shock and awe promise from the man in the high castle to bump the stock up. Great, great idea. Timeline not possible due to technology, regulations, and cost prohibiting consumer buy in at this time.

[joosttx]

You guys need to listen to my cousin's, Tasha Keeney, podcast with Elon she did last week. Its the basis of this article.

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7895/47150839681_a5f21bb13a_b.jpg

https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast

[andeww]

Ya but did she smoke weed with him ?

will look into it ! thats cool

[joosttx]

Ya but did she smoke weed with him ?

will look into it ! thats cool

Lol, she said she didnt. We are all very proud of her. She was on CNBC today doing the Talking Head thing too.

[gemship]

If Tesla is serious about making money selling all electric vehicles they really need to step it up with a product Americans will buy. It's called a 4wd truck and I believe the Detriot based Rivian can and will beat them to it.

[CunegoFan]

If Tesla is serious about making money selling all electric vehicles they really need to step it up with a product Americans will buy. It's called a 4wd truck and I believe the Detriot based Rivian can and will beat them to it.

Will real Americans buy a truck that cannot roll coal?

[gemship]

Will real Americans buy a truck that cannot roll coal?

Have you seen the Rivian? I dunno about coal rolling rednecks but this truck makes a claimed 800hp and has a 400 mile range and lots of extra cargo space. The real issue is who wants to spend 70k on a truck?

[rnhood]

Many 4-door pickups with a V8 and 4WD will cost near $70, and the woods is full of them, even in Florida.

The Rivian looks nice, and I think even the big V8 aficionados might be open to a 180KW truck with 4 motors, 400 mile range and a 3 second 0-60 acceleration. Of course cold weather will reduce that range, and I suspect the top model will run closer to $100k. But at least in my opinion, a person gets far more value out of it than that Tesla car, junk or whatever.

If it comes with a decent warranty, and lives up to its advertise specs then it will likely sell - especially in our good economy. I still wouldn't buy one though, I just can't see spending over $30 or $40k on new car even it goes to the moon.

[FlashUNC]

Modern-day Preston Tucker sure is out there.

[BobO]

The devil is in the details. The catch is in what Musk didn't say Having systems that can leave a parking space and come get you is the easy part. Doing so with an extremely low probability of running someone over is the hard part. The latter won't happen for quite some time.

[unterhausen]

maybe they should keep the cars from running straight into a concrete wall at high speed first. Then we'll talk about moving forward with a more ambitious plan

[buddybikes]

What happens if there is a software bug and driver is busy writing an email? System crashes, is there 100% failaover? How to driverless cars handle windy back road of New England, with ice and snow?

This is so scary (to me)

[gemship]

Many 4-door pickups with a V8 and 4WD will cost near $70, and the woods is full of them, even in Florida.

The Rivian looks nice, and I think even the big V8 aficionados might be open to a 180KW truck with 4 motors, 400 mile range and a 3 second 0-60 acceleration. Of course cold weather will reduce that range, and I suspect the top model will run closer to $100k. But at least in my opinion, a person gets far more value out of it than that Tesla car, junk or whatever.

If it comes with a decent warranty, and lives up to its advertise specs then it will likely sell - especially in our good economy. I still wouldn't buy one though, I just can't see spending over $30 or $40k on new car even it goes to the moon.

Yep I was thinking the same thing as I typed my last post but like you I am not that guy. I'm having too much fun with my new to me 09' 5 speed Subaru Outback. We just got some snow here in Ma. yesterday and it is so much fun driving this car in it. Stuffing it into questionable places and never getting stuck. I have even hauled firewood with it. Best 7k I ever spent. I could buy at least ten of this car for the price of a Rivian. So unless I hit the lottery I will never have one of those in my driveway. I have had mostly trucks in my 26 years of driving and although I miss the practicality of a truck bed I absolutely can't see the overpriced value of owning one. Unless you're making money with it. Saying this regarding all new vehicles.

[sg8357]

If Tesla is serious about making money selling all electric vehicles they really need to step it up with a product Americans will buy. It's called a 4wd truck and I believe the Detriot based Rivian can and will beat them to it.

Until Tesla's can roll coal, they have no future.
15 year old, beat up trucks work fine, 15 year old self driving electric
trucks ?

[David Kirk]

Can anyone explain how an autonomous car can position itself on a snow covered road?....or a dirt road?.....or new pavement that hasn't had lines painted yet?

dave

[gemship]

Until Tesla's can roll coal, they have no future.
15 year old, beat up trucks work fine, 15 year old self driving electric
trucks ?

That's funny so true. Ok so it hasn't been a total bed or rose's with the 10 year old Subie. The airbag light came on and was bugging me much like the tps light that's been on since day one I got it last Aug and not going to fix the latter because it's called a tire pressure gauge and common sense. However if there's a problem chances are someone made a video on how to fix it and so I found and fixed...fingers crossed. The fix was reflowing/adding a bit of solder to a tiny set of resistors on a PCB connect to more silly warning lamps. Can you imagine something not going wrong with a self driving car?...lol.

[unterhausen]

Can anyone explain how an autonomous car can position itself on a snow covered road?....or a dirt road?.....or new pavement that hasn't had lines painted yet?

dave

this is a really good question, and I think that's why any honest developer says it's too early. That was the problem that ran the tesla into the concrete barrier, they were relying on road lines and they were incomplete. The barrel covering the end of the wall was gone because of a previous crash. This kind of thing happens all the time on roads. Musk says they don't need lidar, i.e. it's too expensive, but cameras alone will kill people. Same thing driving into the side of the truck, a lidar would have been enough to keep that from happening.

[MaraudingWalrus]

The real issue is who wants to spend 70k on a truck?



Have you priced a truck lately? TONS of the trucks you see on the roads in most urban-suburban areas cost at least that.

[Louis]

Can anyone explain how an autonomous car can position itself on a snow covered road?....or a dirt road?.....or new pavement that hasn't had lines painted yet?

I guessing that what they say for marketing purposes is one thing, and the reality in the fine print of the user's manual for non-optimal conditions will be something completely different.

[Steve in SLO]

The technology industry has a somewhat (in)famous track record of using end users as beta testers.
I hope self driving cars doesn’t become another example. It’s already unsettling (for me, at least) to see car commercials where manufacturers tout the safety features on their cars while showing a driver experimenting with taking their hands off the wheel.

[adub]

And in a completely unrelated story my work computer died on me in the middle of entering spreadsheet data today. Good thing I wasn't behind the wheel when this happened. LOL!!

[mj_michigan]

Can anyone explain how an autonomous car can position itself on a snow covered road?....or a dirt road?.....or new pavement that hasn't had lines painted yet?

dave

This would be Level 5 Autonomy -- quite some way out. Today's systems (Tesla's Autopilot, GM's Super Cruise, etc) are Level 2 because of the requirements that the driver keeps hands on the steering wheel and eyes on the road, just in case.
As of Dec. 2018, Waymo (Google) is "commercially" running Level 4 Autonomous vehicles in Phoenix -- geofenced (7x7 miles) and under fair weather conditions -- but, to the best of my knowledge, still has two engineers sitting in each car. Someone might have Level 3 in production, but I am not sure.

[Seramount]

computer-operated vehicles are probably only 95% competent at avoiding collisions...

which makes them significantly safer than human-operated ones.

most people absolutely suck at driving...

e.g., if it's used at all, the turn signal goes on BEFORE the brakes are depressed and the steering wheel is turned...

[adub]

computer-operated vehicles are probably only 95% competent at avoiding collisions...

which makes them significantly safer than human-operated ones.

most people absolutely suck at driving...

e.g., if it's used at all, the turn signal goes on BEFORE the brakes are depressed and the steering wheel is turned...

I agree with this with the exception of driving is severe bad weather, snowstorms, mud and crap spraying up on optical sensors etc.

[rwsaunders]

Can anyone explain how an autonomous car can position itself on a snow covered road?....or a dirt road?.....or new pavement that hasn't had lines painted yet?

dave

The Uber AV test cars here in Pittsburgh don't operate in bad weather.

[oldpotatoe]

Have you seen the Rivian? I dunno about coal rolling rednecks but this truck makes a claimed 800hp and has a 400 mile range and lots of extra cargo space. The real issue is who wants to spend 70k on a truck?

70k on a farging US made truck is about standard..maybe a 'little' at the high end but my Bro in Law, works for a local Ford dealer, and $100k trucks are not that uncommon. People are such sheeple..they think $2 gas is like forever...:no:

Musk says he'll be on Mars pretty soon too..look up "eccentric billionaire"..see pic of Elon....

[MoparPorsche]

Being in the IT field and understanding how products are delivered to production with bugs and security flaws I would never trust such a vehicle from a pure safety perspective anytime soon.

[SPOKE]

Can anyone explain how an autonomous car can position itself on a snow covered road?....or a dirt road?.....or new pavement that hasn't had lines painted yet?

dave

Tesla is gunning for your autocross titles my friend:)

[Matthew]

I like to drive. I have no desire for a car that does it for me. Hell, I still like using CD's and actually turning my head around to look out the back window. Being completely reliant on the vehicle seems pretty scary.

[BobO]

I like to drive. I have no desire for a car that does it for me. Hell, I still like using CD's and actually turning my head around to look out the back window. Being completely reliant on the vehicle seems pretty scary.

As of now, having autonomous cars being mandatory is not the question. The question is about when those systems will be available and acceptably reliable for those who want it.

I like driving myself, and to be a little immodest, I'm good at it. I would leave autonomous systems turned off most of the time, but, every now and then there are times when it would be nice to have the car take me somewhere. Then there's the fact that a strong majority of drivers are poor to incompetent, and that's when they're paying attention to the road. Add in the lack of self control with the 500 potential distractions and we have roadways full of people who shouldn't be driving at all. I want them to have autonomous systems available. They're obviously not interested in driving to begin with and the world is a better place without them driving. But no, not mandatory.

[unterhausen]

Being in the IT field and understanding how products are delivered to production with bugs and security flaws I would never trust such a vehicle from a pure safety perspective anytime soon.

Exactly. Car companies are so cost-focused that they would sell their first child for a penny a car. How am I supposed to trust such a company to fix their software or deliver a safe software in the first place? This is a really difficult engineering problem, vulnerable road users are just going to have to get out of the way. No thanks.

[William]

Yeah, that's just what we need...

https://media.giphy.com/media/HSLbIjLk2GsBa/source.gif


https://media.giphy.com/media/iZ8lGFjIzwzXW/giphy.gif





W.