Cam Dye says 'no more' to road biking

[93KgBike]

Cam Dye retired from a pretty successful triathlon career at the end of last year, and is quoted in an interview on slowtwitch (https://www.slowtwitch.com/Interview/Life_After_Triathlon_-_Cam_Dye_7136.html) saying that he will not ride bikes on roads anymore out of concern for his safety.

Probably won’t spend too much time riding on the road, because it is not as safe as it was. And now since it is no longer the way how I pay my bills, the last thing I now want is to get involved in an accident.

It sounds a little Milquetoast, but research actually bares out the claim (https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303546). The roads are more unsafe for American pedestrians and cyclists than ever before.

I have struggled with my perception of these changes, and challenged myself to be stronger and smarter on the road.

Florida just made the news as being the most unsafe place to walk in America (https://www.staugustine.com/news/20190123/walking-youre-risking-your-life-in-florida-deadliest-state-for-pedestrians) - followed closely by Texas and California. In addition, accidents have become more deadly as vehicles have become larger (SUV & pickups).

Mike Hall's death shook me up.

After 38 years of riding on the road, all over this country, I am beginning to wonder if I have been just cruising along when I should have been letter writing and taking political action.

The roads don't feel safe. They never did to me, but I just bucked up. And things have only gotten worse... I am not ready to 'museum' my bikes, of course. But...

What to do?

[unterhausen]

a fundamental change has happened in the U.S. since I started riding 45 years ago. Back then, it was difficult to get banks to lend to people to build a house out in the boonies. Now, there is building everywhere. And those people are in a hurry to get out of the boonies or back home. It's really sad to see nice roads being turned into high speed arteries. Last fall, I was on a tiny back road south of Frederick MD late at night, and it was like rush hour. No idea where all those people were going, but they weren't happy to see me.

[Ralph]

I share his fear....have been riding the roads now for over 45 years. But now.....Unless I'm tucked into a large group......where I feel a lot more visible and somewhat safer.....when by myself....I just ride the paved trails. We are so fortunate around here to have paved trails where one can go as far as you wish with little side traffic.....with only a few places here and there with dangerous trail traffic. Of course.....on the trail....you don't go as fast. But I can go off for the whole day, have lunch out somewhere, and never mix it up with vehicle traffic.

[Tickdoc]

The road is where I get my joy, so that is where I ride.

Sorry for that dude, whomever he is, but I’m going to keep riding the road.

[Mark McM]

It sounds a little Milquetoast, but research actually bares out the claim (https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303546). The roads are more unsafe for American pedestrians and cyclists than ever before.

I don't think you read the article you cited. The article shows that cycling in the USA has been getting continuously safer in the USA, and that from 2010 - 2014 (the last time interval in the study), cycling in the USA has had its lowest fatility rate of all the time periods in the study. The main problem this studied identified is that, while the cyclng fatality rate has been dropping in all the countries studied, the fatality rate in the US isn't dropping as fast as it is in other countries.

I have struggled with my perception of these changes, and challenged myself to be stronger and smarter on the road.

I think this comes closer to the issue today - the perception of the dangers of cycling has been increasing, even if the actual dangers have not. The human mind is conditioned to assess and react to the dangers it encounters (which includes dangers we have heard about from others). In previous decades, when we got news from local papers and TV stations, or from word of mouth, it was rare to hear stories about cycling crashes that happened far away. Now, in the age of the internet and the 24 hour news cycle, we instantly hear about cycling fatalities that happen half a world away. Even though we may hear about more cycling fatalities today, that doesn't mean there actually are more cycling fatalities today.

[merckxman]

There are 100,000,000 more people in the USA since 1980!

snip, "After 38 years of riding on the road..."

[Clean39T]

I don't think you read the article you cited. The article shows that cycling in the USA has been getting continuously safer in the USA, and that from 2010 - 2014 (the last time interval in the study), cycling in the USA has had its lowest fatility rate of all the time periods in the study. The main problem this studied identified is that, while the cyclng fatality rate has been dropping in all the countries studied, the fatality rate in the US isn't dropping as fast as it is in other countries.







I think this comes closer to the issue today - the perception of the dangers of cycling has been increasing, even if the actual dangers have not. The human mind is conditioned to assess and react to the dangers it encounters (which includes dangers we have heard about from others). In previous decades, when we got news from local papers and TV stations, or from word of mouth, it was rare to hear stories about cycling crashes that happened far away. Now, in the age of the internet and the 24 hour news cycle, we instantly hear about cycling fatalities that happen half a world away. Even though we may hear about more cycling fatalities today, that doesn't mean there actually are more cycling fatalities today.Thank you for being a reasonable voice of reason ..

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Ralph]

I think it's mostly the distracted driving from texting. Just the other day....and I use a rear view mirror on my helmet.....I watched a pick up with trailer come up behind me....as he passed....he gave me some room....but the trailer hauling his lawn equipment was wider than the truck....and he almost brushed me. When I looked at him....he was using the phone with his hands. Scary!

[Mark McM]

I think it's mostly the distracted driving from texting. Just the other day....and I use a rear view mirror on my helmet.....I watched a pick up with trailer come up behind me....as he passed....he gave me some room....but the trailer hauling his lawn equipment was wider than the truck....and he almost brushed me. When I looked at him....he was using the phone with his hands. Scary!

What is the "it" that is mostly the distracted driving from texting? In the '90s, few people texted on their phones, and yet there were more cyclist injuries and fatalities in the '90s than there are now. Before you try to come with an explanation for a phenomenon or trend, you should first check to see if the phenomenon or trend actually exists.

[bicycletricycle]

The discussion section of the paper sighted says that cycling is getting safer.

"In all 11 countries shown in Figures 1
and 2, pedestrian and cyclist fatality rates per
capita fell between 1990 and 2014, but the
smallest reductions were in the United States."

[54ny77]

Cycling is rarely fun for me anymore with where I currently ride (SoCal), unless I'm out at 5 am on a warm weekend morning and the sun just coming out, along with zero traffic.

Have been out here about 5 months (recent move from east coast) and have had so many close calls. Technically, I've been hit, but I managed to stay upright by way of leaning into the car, which thankfully drifted back into the proper car lane and out of the bike lane.

Just this past weekend, I had to officiate in middle of PCH when an old man slammed into a guy riding in crosswalk across the highway, as driver was turning left and didn't stop for the biker in crosswalk. I saw it literally unfold in slow motion. I stopped traffic, got everyone off to side of road, and had to play judge/mediator to get the two to be quiet and move along. Both were at fault, luckily the cyclist was just shaken up, no damage. It was a lo speed impact, thankfully.

My goal in '19 is do more offroading.

[ERK55]

There are 100,000,000 more people in the USA since 1980!

snip, "After 38 years of riding on the road..."

Frightening thought.
When’s the max?

[vqdriver]

i've gone primarily dirt road/mtb after a few close calls. a couple with malice, a few more i'm guessing just carelessness. i don't need to ride that bad.

[FlashUNC]

No one's going to bring up the "I'm older now and my creeping mortality has me more fearful of riding on the road, even if the data shows overall it's safer than it's been in a long time."

We'll go to great lengths to justify a decision that deludes us into thinking it's something beyond our own changing tolerances.

[XXtwindad]

No one's going to bring up the "I'm older now and my creeping mortality has me more fearful of riding on the road, even if the data shows overall it's safer than it's been in a long time."

We'll go to great lengths to justify a decision that deludes us into thinking it's something beyond our own changing tolerances.

I'm older now, and my creeping fear of mortality has me more fearful of riding on the rode.

It also has me purchase disc brakes and use a 10-42 cassette :)

[XXtwindad]

I'm older now, and my creeping fear of mortality has me more fearful of riding on the rode.

It also has me purchase disc brakes and use a 10-42 cassette :)

That would be "road." Perhaps an effect of creeping mortality ...

[buddybikes]

Guess I am a good age to be old and have my miles in rear view mirror. Find i am lazing out on the bike trail (east bay bike path RI) more and more where least during week i can pretty much go brain dead.

[93KgBike]

The discussion section of the paper sighted says that cycling is getting safer.

"In all 11 countries shown in Figures 1
and 2, pedestrian and cyclist fatality rates per
capita fell between 1990 and 2014, but the
smallest reductions were in the United States."
I don't think you read the article you cited.

I read it, but posted the link for the across countries comparison and the discussion about infrastructure. And also because it discusses reporting differences between the Emergency Room and the police reports. Thanks for reading it.

I think this comes closer to the issue today - the perception of the dangers of cycling has been increasing, even if the actual dangers have not. The human mind is conditioned to assess and react to the dangers it encounters (which includes dangers we have heard about from others). In previous decades, when we got news from local papers and TV stations, or from word of mouth, it was rare to hear stories about cycling crashes that happened far away. Now, in the age of the internet and the 24 hour news cycle, we instantly hear about cycling fatalities that happen half a world away. Even though we may hear about more cycling fatalities today, that doesn't mean there actually are more cycling fatalities today.

The problem is more than just perceptual. I already knew the NHTSA stats (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812507), but should've posted them before. There's been a 35% uptick in accidents since that study was published. And the NHTSA only uses PD numbers rather than PD & ED combined

[oldpotatoe]

It sounds a little Milquetoast, but research actually bares out the claim. The roads are more unsafe for American pedestrians and cyclists than ever before.

I have struggled with my perception of these changes, and challenged myself to be stronger and smarter on the road.

Well, I wonder how much 'fun' they guy had riding a bike? It is a real shame to stop doing something you enjoy, 'what if' yourself out of doing something fun. The roads are more dangerous(distracted drivers) but what I do is ride smart..defensively and never ride anywhere w/o a shoulder. And in 2002 I got hit from behind while riding at 10:30 on a Saturday morning but not gonna stop riding road. Dirt road riding just isn't as much fun to me, nope to MTB..road riding is fun, even with the risk..YMMV and all that.

[93KgBike]

It was my not intention to set up an opinion poll about whether to ride a road bike or not. Cam Dye himself says that he intends to stop riding on the roads, not to stop riding.

We all want to ride our bikes. Those of us in our 40s-60s (who are the most at risk for being killed by a car while riding (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812507)) have survived riding in the roads by being skillful, especially those of us that have been hit by cars (like me). But none of us want to be hit by cars.

European countries have adopted policies to reduce the risk of riding on pavement. America has been considerably less successful at adopting risk reduction policies.

The cyclist community spends a lot of time debating amongst itself about the relative risk of bike-lanes versus shared-use paths, but these combined environments account for 6% of the total deaths of cyclists (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812507). The other 94% occur in areas that we often must use.

After spending almost four decades assuming all the risk of riding in traffic, my question to myself is, "have I done anything to help improve road biking conditions?"

The AJPH paper I linked above suggests,
Because the vast majority of pedestrian and cyclist fatalities are attributable to collisions with motor vehicles, roadways are the most lethal environment for walking and cycling.

Walking and cycling are safer on completely separate off-road facilities, such as mixed-use recreational paths, or in car-free zones, traffic-calmed residential streets (with slower speeds and less traffic), and physically separated on-street facilities (such as cycle tracks).

Thus, the provision of more and better separate facilities is a key to improving overall walking and cycling safety. Such facilities are especially important for children and seniors, who are most likely to be killed or seriously injured if hit by a motor vehicle. (https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303546)

Being a surviving, safe and enthusiastic cyclist strikes me as the minimum input into getting structural change that improves the quality of cycling infrastructure.

I bookmarked the site, copenhagenize.eu (https://copenhagenize.eu), which has the ambitious goal of: advising and inspiring cities, governments and organisations about the re-establishment of the bicycle as a normal form of urban transport. For us, our work is to design a monument in each city we work in – to ingenuity, rationality and human-powered transport.

I am not currently a member of a cyclists group with those kind of goals. But I think it's time for me to change that.

[Mark McM]

The problem is more than just perceptual. I already knew the NHTSA stats (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812507), but should've posted them before. There's been a 35% uptick in accidents since that study was published. And the NHTSA only uses PD numbers rather than PD & ED combined

Where do you come up with that number? There is no such data in this new article. The only way I can see to come up with a 35% value is to arbitrarily cherry pick data points to produce an out of context value. I'm not sure that you understand statistics.

Firstly, the only data in this new study is annual fatility numbers. But for that to have meaning, it needs to be put into context. Where there more or less riders? Did they ride or more or less? For example, if there are more riders, then for the same number of annual fatalities, a smaller percentage of cyclists died (and therefore cycling is safer for an individual rider).

Secondly, bicycle fatalities are a statistically small number. The numbers are only in the hundreds per year. It is not surprising that the numbers can vary quite a bit from year to year. Over the past 40 years, the variation in fatalities from one year to the next has varied over a range of -119 to +89. Because of the variation, you can't just compare the values from two arbitrary years, you have to look at overall trends. The data in the NHTSA report you cited was only up to 2016. The IIHS web page (https://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/pedestrians-and-bicyclists/fatalityfacts/bicycles) includes data for 2017. This data shows that cycling fatalities decreased from 848 in 2016 to only 777 in 2017. Does that mean that recently cycling got 8.4% safer in one year? Of course not - most of the difference is random variation.

The authors of the first study understood these things. That's why they didn't just just use the total number of injuries and fatalities, they instead used the more meaningful information of injuries and fatalities per 100 million kilometers ridden. And instead of comparing two individual years, they used different ranges of years, to average out the year-to-year variations. And when they did this, they (correctly) found that cycling is getting safer in the US

It was my not intention to set up an opinion poll about whether to ride a road bike or not.

No, but it was your intention to use fear mongering and false claims to push your agenda. There is no facts or data that supports your claims that, "The roads are more unsafe for American pedestrians and cyclists than ever before," or that, "There's been a 35% uptick in accidents since that study was published."

[nooneline]

as a health data scientist, it's nice to see Mark McM's contributions in this thread.

It's really easy to miscommunicate science; it's really easy to misunderstand it. It's complicated stuff! And it's easy to be mislead by statistical-sounding numbers. It's helpful to have somebody with some knowledge provide context that's often missing from journal articles and even news write-ups of scientific studies.

[thwart]

Everyone has to make their own decisions on this difficult topic.

I live in an area that has seen rapid growth; back roads are more congested, and average speeds on those (narrow) roads have gone up.

I've been involved in a serious crash and know first-hand what that is like.

My spouse's fears are important for me to address as well.

Regarding statistics and how to use (and abuse) them... I look at this NHTSA graph and fail to see good evidence that cycling is getting safer.

[93KgBike]

I rode nearly 3200 miles commuting on the roads last year, and roughly 4600 miles for fun and exercise.

Fear mongering?

My only agenda was to have a discussion.

And the numbers that I quoted, well you can read, so work them out for yourself. They're from the chart above ('09-'16). Or don't.

I don't agree with any of your comments about how to read the stats.

If you're dismissing 1625 people dying on bikes (allegedly?) in 2016-2017, well weird for you.

I don't read your comments as 'a voice of reason' or as someone interested in the conclusions of the two reports, or as someone interested in a conversation.

The thread is toxic now, so I doubt I'll revisit it.

[cdimattio]

My only agenda was to have a discussion.


I believe there is a valuable discussion here and I personally value all the viewpoints presented.

While fatalities may have risen, some have pointed out that these counts might be better viewed with the benefit of additional perspectives such as population growth and a related increase of cyclists on the road.

Fatalies by year are certainly growing, but so is the population. The perception offered was that we might view the increase with context. Fatalities per kilometer cycled or fatalites related to the population are showing improvement.

Not sure anyone is discouting the tradgedy of these numbers.

[nooneline]

Regarding statistics and how to use (and abuse) them... I look at this NHTSA graph and fail to see good evidence that cycling is getting safer.

Try reading Mark McM's post and see if that helps.

Or, the tl;dr version is this - you can't really tell is something is getting better worse based on a count (number) of an outcome (like fatalities).

That table you posted shoes that the number of fatalities rose between 2007 and 2016. But what if the number of cyclists doubled in that time? That would mean that though the number rose, the fatality rate when down (as did any one cyclist's probability of dying).

Now, the number of cyclists probably didn't double. But it may well have increased more than the fatality number did. Or, the distance traveled may have increased - which is why "per vehicular miles traveled" is a common denominator for traffic-related rates, not just "per person."

[spoonrobot]

What to do?

Stop paying attention to triathletes. It's become a trend to post about how you're no longer riding on the road - see any of the dozens of threads on slowtwitch started the past 16 months. These people voluntarily spend 5+ hours on a trainer, multiple times. That path lies madness, as evidenced by your link.

If I was worried about my personal safety I'd sooner stop driving a car and using the internet before quitting cycling on the open road.

[marciero]

Regarding the NHTSA report, and sort of in their defense-nowhere do they claim that cycling or walking is less or more safe. I note the title: "Traffic Safety Facts". It contains descriptive statistics only- no inferences made. There are many possible reasons for any of their "key findings"-they all raise questions. But the report does not seek to answer those. So can't compare to the other article, which is a peer-reviewed journal article that does make inferences. The problem is in drawing inferences from the NHTSA report. Not sure who the intended audience is, but looks like a government annual report-type thing.

[oldpotatoe]

Stop paying attention to triathletes. It's become a trend to post about how you're no longer riding on the road - see any of the dozens of threads on slowtwitch started the past 16 months. These people voluntarily spend 5+ hours on a trainer, multiple times. That path lies madness, as evidenced by your link.

If I was worried about my personal safety I'd sooner stop driving a car and using the internet before quitting cycling on the open road.

Indeed...mee too..is it 'more' dangerous? maybe, probably but as I've mentioned, ride smart, defensively. Pick your route carefully..don't do anything that'll make ya 'dead right'...

Too many have 'what if'-ed themselves out of something that's enjoyable..bouncing around on a dirt road sure isn't it for me..YMMV and all that.

[Mark McM]

Regarding statistics and how to use (and abuse) them... I look at this NHTSA graph and fail to see good evidence that cycling is getting safer.

Regarding statistics and how to use (and abuse) them... I look at this NHTSA graph and fail to see good evidence that cycling is getting safer.

That chart might make it look like the chances of a cyclist dying has been been ever increasing - but only if you disregard things changes in the size of cycling population, or changes in the number and length of cycling trips, or the trends in data before and after this data.

The data in that chart only covers 10 years, whereas the data in the IIHS page I referenced showed 40 years of data. This graph from a CDC report on cycling (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6431a1.htm) shows a longer span of time, and also presents the rate of cyclist deaths a percentage of population (the solid blue line):

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m6431a1f1.gif

As can be seen, there is quite a bit of fluctuation over the years, but the general tend has been, and continues to be, downward. The data in the NHTSA chart only shows a portion of the latest fluctuation, and so may be misleading. The graph above also does include the latest data, which shows that the current inflection is pointing downward again in 2017. We'll have to wait and see if the 2018 data continues to show the downward inflection.

The CDC report also notes that the number trips taken by cyclists has increased over time: "Although bicycles account for a relatively small share of trips across all modes of transportation, the share of total household trips taken by bicycle has doubled over the last 35 years, and in 2009, bicycling accounted for approximately 1% of trips in the United States (4). Recent years have seen the largest increase in bicycling; for instance, during 2000–2012, the number of U.S. workers who traveled to work by bicycle increased 61% (6)." It seems likely that increases in the cycling rate accounts for much, if not all, of the increase in fatalities. The data on this web page shows that the number of people who participated in cycling between 2006 and 2017 increased by 20% (39.69 million to 47.54 million). This is probably a good thing, as cycling data across many countries appears to indicate that cycling is safer where there are more cyclists.

But perhaps none of the above mean anything, and everyone is right: facts, data and context today mean nothing; the sky is falling, and no amount of information and reason can prove otherwise.

[thwart]

Thankfully, the sky is not falling. ;)

And I’m still riding my bike.

However national statistics, however you interpret them, are after all, national statistics.

I think most of us would agree that local conditions and our own personal experience dictate our decision about whether road cycling is reasonably safe.

Mr. Dye decided it wasn’t. I respect his decision, as I suspect most of us do.

There does seem to be a faction of cyclists who will continue to ride the road no matter what. I get that. However from my perspective it seems that some of these folks get defensive when someone decides to stop, especially if they make a point of it.

[mattsurf]

When most cars on the roads are self driving, then cycling will be much safer. I think within 10-20 years there will be a massive switch to self driving in many European countries

[Oxford_Guy]

The road is where I get my joy, so that is where I ride.

Sorry for that dude, whomever he is, but I’m going to keep riding the road.

Same here!

[wasfast]

There's a difference in fundamental reasons for riding. Folks who only cycle are there for the experience of riding their bike. For some triathletes, it's 1/3 of the event. Those coming to triathlon can be former swimmers, runners, or cyclists.

I found it interesting (mostly following on slowtwitch) when the indoor trainer concept got traction 3 or so years ago. The mere idea of sitting on a trainer for 5+ hours would be suicide-inducing for me.

Lastly, there seem to be more "trend switching" in triathlon, the next thing coming in 3-4 year cycles. That includes equipment, training methods. It's not necessarily wrong but never confuse new with better.