Thoughts on the bike industry...

[MattTuck]

Not sure if this fits in the InterBike thread, but certainly related to it... and the thread about USAC vs. British Cycling.

It feels like the industry has adopted a strategy of continual niche formation in which bikes are marketed to ever more narrow use cases. As an example, there used to be road bikes, then they "discovered" a new geometry called "Endurance", which is positioned as distinct from a racing bike. Same thing has happened with gravel bikes, fat bikes, 27.5 plus, etc.

So, here's my question... is that strategy built on the assumption that it is easier to sell an incremental bike to an existing cyclist than convert a non-cyclist to the sport?

I think that ties in with the USAC discussion, as they seem less concerned about growing the numbers of the amateur ranks. Contrast that with British Cycling which is using Zwift to try to find potential talent.

Not sure if they exist, but would love to see some numbers to see if I'm right about selling more bikes without bringing new people into the sport.

[tylercheung]

I for one would love to get more of my friends into cycling (granted I am not talking about racing but road rides and I might try gravel). When I talk about it, they seem interested but visibly intimidated by the equipment required...

[bikinchris]

USAC doesn't seem to have ever focused on growing the sport. They paid lip service to that ideal, but I never saw anything happen. If someone came along who was a talent, they would allow them to race and grow, but it's not like they went out looking to grow nationwide. They seemed to leave that up to local clubs with no real encouragement to do anything.

For instance, they could have given clubs a deal on permits if they included at least a boys and girls race for under 10 year olds IF they had a certain size field. SO that way clubs would really try to get young people and new riders out riding instead of ignoring them because they weren't fast enough to train with.

I once taught 12,500 students ON BICYCLE seats a comprehensive road riding course. After that, I tried to get my local club to hold rides for young kids an their parents. You would think I proposed devil worship. I reminded them that the best and most dedicated club workers were parents of kids who rode. No dice.

[Ken Robb]

Grant Petersen of Rivendell has advocated for do-it-all bikes for years that people would be comfortable riding in regular clothing. He bemoans how potential new riders are turned off/intimidated when they are given the idea that they should buy and ride race bikes and that racing "kit" and clip-in shoes/pedals are required. I think there is a lot of truth in his ideas.

[nmrt]

Not sure what to think of this. Speaking for myself, when I am in my regular clothes just commuting 2.5 miles to work, I kinda hate the experience. The pants rub against the knees, the shirt, flutters against the wind (not a good sensation), and I somehow feel restricted. I am pretty sure I would not want to go for a bike ride in any bike -- racing, endurance, gravel -- for an extended time in my regular clothes. Having cycling specific clothing and clip-on shoes just seems to work so much better. YMMV

Grant Petersen of Rivendell has advocated for do-it-all bikes for years that people would be comfortable riding in regular clothing. He bemoans how potential new riders are turned off/intimidated when they are given the idea that they should buy and ride race bikes and that racing "kit" and clip-in shoes/pedals are required. I think there is a lot of truth in his ideas.

[pdmtong]

Not sure if this fits in the InterBike thread, but certainly related to it... and the thread about USAC vs. British Cycling.

It feels like the industry has adopted a strategy of continual niche formation in which bikes are marketed to ever more narrow use cases. As an example, there used to be road bikes, then they "discovered" a new geometry called "Endurance", which is positioned as distinct from a racing bike. Same thing has happened with gravel bikes, fat bikes, 27.5 plus, etc.

So, here's my question... is that strategy built on the assumption that it is easier to sell an incremental bike to an existing cyclist than convert a non-cyclist to the sport?

I think that ties in with the USAC discussion, as they seem less concerned about growing the numbers of the amateur ranks. Contrast that with British Cycling which is using Zwift to try to find potential talent.

Not sure if they exist, but would love to see some numbers to see if I'm right about selling more bikes without bringing new people into the sport.

I think gravel came into being because those with rolling fire roads wanting to do 50+ rides wanted to be on "skinnier tires" and to go faster than a mtb shod with 2.3's

in the mtb world, all the niche's are relevant, since if I could, it would be GREAT to have a tool for the job. where I am the setup would be an XC hardtail, an XC FS, a 5" AM a 6" enduro and a santa cruz V-10 for lift-assisted riding


Not sure what to think of this. Speaking for myself, when I am in my regular clothes just commuting 2.5 miles to work, I kinda hate the experience. The pants rub against the knees, the shirt, flutters against the wind (not a good sensation), and I somehow feel restricted. I am pretty sure I would not want to go for a bike ride in any bike -- racing, endurance, gravel -- for an extended time in my regular clothes. Having cycling specific clothing and clip-on shoes just seems to work so much better. YMMV
Agreed. I was doing the 2.0 from home to train and the 2.0 from train to office in jeans and work shirt. no thanks. got some Rapha city pants and shirt and jacket. what an epiphany.

[bigbill]

When I started racing back in the late 80's, it was a pretty level playing field, equipment-wise. Most people were road racing on tubulars because the clinchers were kind of meh at the time. So everyone was riding box rims and 28-36 spokes. Even into the mid 90's, most people were on a metal bike with standard 32 spoke wheels. We put clip-on bars on our bikes to ride time trials. A few guys had nicer gear, mostly the masters riders, and would show up on Kestrels or Hookers. For most of us, it was one bike for everything, a road race on Saturday and a crit on Sunday. Having a set of tubulars for the crit was as special as I got.

Now I've got a gravel bike and several road bikes, each with a purpose. In the next month or so I'll get a new MTB and it will likely be a 27.5+ so I can run 3" tires on the sandy trails.

[duff_duffy]

+1 on this. Could not agree more.
Grant Petersen of Rivendell has advocated for do-it-all bikes for years that people would be comfortable riding in regular clothing. He bemoans how potential new riders are turned off/intimidated when they are given the idea that they should buy and ride race bikes and that racing "kit" and clip-in shoes/pedals are required. I think there is a lot of truth in his ideas.

[Cloozoe]

So, here's my question... is that strategy built on the assumption that it is easier to sell an incremental bike to an existing cyclist than convert a non-cyclist to the sport...

Interesting thread. Just to the question above; I'm not sure the alternatives are mutually exclusive. It could well be that the breadth of choice is seen as an effective tool for addressing the interests or needs of more potential converts than simply offering a choice between road and mountain. Not to say that they're necessarily correct --if marketing were an exact science there wouldn't be so many bad tv shows that get cancelled after one season-- but they're not necessarily wrong either.

Of course the downside to offering many options of ever increasingly exquisite distinctions is the sowing of confusion and intimidation, and a confused customer isn't ready to take out his wallet.

The bike companies know this, of course, and it's the job of their marketing team and retailers to unconfuse and unintimidate.

But the plethora of choices is in any case inevitable; in all industries companies seek to grow which requires them to try both to sell more of what they already make and come up with new things to sell. The former tends to be more a war of attrition in a mature industry; a death-dance for market share replete with declining margins, while the latter has the potential to grow the market through both attracting new customers and giving existing ones reasons to spend more this year than they did last. Plus it's much easier to attract vital free attention with a press release that says "Acme Cycles introduces a revolutionary, new...", than "Moribund Bikes announces that there's nothing new and nothing's changed".

[El Chaba]

The bike industry is in decline because participation is in decline....and has been for quite a few years. For those of us who are/have been in the sport long-term it is a real problem from the product side. The industry is desperate to maintain sales, so they have to replace new people in the sport with new products. I would suggest that they have LONG since run out of good ideas and the quality and design of products has been in a long downward spiral. A reboot is way overdue.

[Ralph]

In my area, the county and state are continuing their effort since the 90's to build more and more dedicated paved MUT's going about everywhere, for alternate transportation as well as recreation. And to connect neighborhoods to shopping, and for school kids to get to local schools. And Florida is ramping up their efforts to attract what is called "eco" tourism. Creating safe corridors away from traffic where bike tourists can visit and get around our state. Counties are beginning to understand that so called bike trails bring in hundreds of million of additional tourist dollars for hotels and restaurants (and sales taxes). County planners are understanding a bike is a legitimate transportation device, and it's use should be part of community planning.

So SOME local LBS have booming sales....in low cost bikes. They are not the bikes some of you are talking about. And many of these folks out on the crowded trails on weekends are obviously using old upright kinda bikes they drug out of the garage. About all I can say about some of these bikes is they roll and tires seem to hold air. And most of these folks seem to be in street clothes, maybe bike shorts. And a long ride for most of these folks new to "biking" might be 10 miles.

And the loaded tourists bikes I see coming thru look like bikes out of my past. Racks, fenders, lights, bags, etc. One of the trails comes by my house, and I see tourists from UK, France, and Germany who have come down from the mid Atlantic area on all kinds of loaded bikes. Don't see any LBS selling these. or equipment for touring. it's looks all mail order.

I don't think this kind of increased cycling activity around here does much to advance the sport of "cycling" or keep hi end bike shops in business. There are some bike shops who seem to get it, and are thriving. But they seem to have excellent locations near cycling hubs. Some race teams train in the hills of central Florida in winter, and E bike only stores are popping up around here. I'm seeing all kinds of E bikes everywhere. But not sure if this increase in cycling activity around here does much to advance the "sport" of cycling.

[oldpotatoe]

Not sure if this fits in the InterBike thread, but certainly related to it... and the thread about USAC vs. British Cycling.

It feels like the industry has adopted a strategy of continual niche formation in which bikes are marketed to ever more narrow use cases. As an example, there used to be road bikes, then they "discovered" a new geometry called "Endurance", which is positioned as distinct from a racing bike. Same thing has happened with gravel bikes, fat bikes, 27.5 plus, etc.

So, here's my question... is that strategy built on the assumption that it is easier to sell an incremental bike to an existing cyclist than convert a non-cyclist to the sport?

I think that ties in with the USAC discussion, as they seem less concerned about growing the numbers of the amateur ranks. Contrast that with British Cycling which is using Zwift to try to find potential talent.

Not sure if they exist, but would love to see some numbers to see if I'm right about selling more bikes without bringing new people into the sport.

MUCH easier to sell a specific function bike to a non cyclist who's entering the sport. Same for Motorcycles. BUT is cycling expanding, numbers wise? No..it's been flat for decades. The biggest reason people don't ride? Safety.

[William]

... After that, I tried to get my local club to hold rides for young kids an their parents. You would think I proposed devil worship. I reminded them that the best and most dedicated club workers were parents of kids who rode. No dice.


I bet insurance and the litigious nature of our society has become a big factor as well.





William

[William]

Not sure what to think of this. Speaking for myself, when I am in my regular clothes just commuting 2.5 miles to work, I kinda hate the experience. The pants rub against the knees, the shirt, flutters against the wind (not a good sensation), and I somehow feel restricted. I am pretty sure I would not want to go for a bike ride in any bike -- racing, endurance, gravel -- for an extended time in my regular clothes. Having cycling specific clothing and clip-on shoes just seems to work so much better. YMMV


I think the difference here is that you know what it's like to wear form fitting gear that doesn't flap and catch the wind as well as how much more efficient being clipped in is...people starting out don't so they do not have that frame of reference. Plus, most people think they will feel self-conscious wearing a second skin out in public.

One hurdle I've noticed in getting people on a bike it that they always want to be able to sit on the saddle and have their feet be able to be flat on the ground at a stand still. It makes them feel comfortable, but it makes for an inefficient pedaling position. Try to get them to raise the saddle where the pedaling position is dialed in and they freak out starting and stopping because it's "hard to touch to the ground". Given the choice of feeling good (and being efficient) while they ride (with a learning curve for starting and stopping) vs feeling good/safe at a stand still and having to work hard and struggle with an inefficient position on the bike...most opt for flat feet on the ground. Then they eventually give up because it's "too hard". Don't even talk about clipping in at this point.

But, I digress...







William

[Clancy]

Ralph points out an interesting dichotomy. While the business of cycling is obviously declining, cities are building more and more multi use paths and in many places cycling participation is booming.

In San Antonio cycling is going through somewhat of a renaissance.

Example for S.A. Today “Earn A Bike” is having a Build Bikes day where volunteers come-in to build bikes purchased through the non-profit. Over 300 have volunteered to participate.

And there never has been so much participation between communities, cities, states, and the federal government to promote cycling. (Compared to the past )

Manufacturing Association‘s are also involved with community out reach and promotions, working with state and federal organizations.

And while the sport has certainly evolved like I would have never dreamed of just 20 years ago, undoubtedly the equipment has never been better for the general public. Arguably commuter bikes and hybrid bikes have never been more refined or more affordable for the general public.

So why is the cycling business in such a decline? I firmly believe the faults lie directly with the cycling industry in their approach to manufacturing, promotion, supply, and distribution. There has to be systemic issues in cycling wholesale and retail that need dramatic revision.

I’m not one smart enough to know what those changes should be. But as someone that passionately love cycling and wishes more would discover the sport I sure wish that the cycling industry would get their heads out of their butts and figure it out.

[Mr. Pink]

I just travelled to Europe, and, I gotta say, the future of cycling for non cyclists is E-bikes, just like the future (and present) for everyday photography is phones. Walked into four or five bike shops in Spain and there was a ton of e-bikes on the floor, mostly mountain. I'm getting old, probably my future, too.

[fignon's barber]

I said this on a forum (not PL) probably 15 years ago: the fundamental problem with the bike industry is that they would rather sell one $10k bike than twenty $500 bikes. It's unsustainable and this is the result.
When I started, a great Italian bike was approx. $800, jerseys were $30, and top of the line bibs were $40. Now those items are, what, $12k/$150/$250.

[Ozz]

I just travelled to Europe, and, I gotta say, the future of cycling for non cyclists is E-bikes, j....

I can't believe (I guess I can...) the number of commuters coming thru my neighborhood on e-Bikes, so I think you are onto something...

Although, I would say they have more in common with Mopeds than bikes.....

[MaraudingWalrus]

the fundamental problem with the bike industry is that they would rather sell one $10k bike than twenty $500 bikes. It's unsustainable and this is the result.

This really is true. And it's frustrating. I say that as a person in a shop who has his own side dealio building wheels. I'm moderately disillusioned with the industry and this really does sum it up.

[Mzilliox]

fuel prices have to keep going up before people will ride more. even a lot of you cats dont think of a bike as transport, just some way to get exercise. even my riding buddies here when they see a strava at 14mph at 530am they wonder what the heck i was doing.

well lets see, im slow, its morning, the ride ended not at my house, what might i be doing? :fight:

also, the bike industry is sort of eating itself up with all the new crap. they seem to have folks convinced discs and electric are the future, why cant they make money off it? too many folks on the payroll?

[oldpotatoe]

I said this on a forum (not PL) probably 15 years ago: the fundamental problem with the bike industry is that they would rather sell one $10k bike than twenty $500 bikes. It's unsustainable and this is the result.
When I started, a great Italian bike was approx. $800, jerseys were $30, and top of the line bibs were $40. Now those items are, what, $12k/$150/$250.

Not really true. The cost to build, inventory, sell...20 bikes is MUCH bigger than the cost to build, inventory and sell..one $10,000 bike. Margin is margin, whether it be $3000 on that one bike or $150 each on those 20 bikes. What you don't get is returning customer numbers..but that's unpredictable. Some just looking at the $10,000 halo bike will return as it's seen as a 'pro' bike vs a 'department store' bike.

[MaraudingWalrus]

Not really true. The cost to build, inventory, sell...20 bikes is MUCH bigger than the cost to build, inventory and sell..one $10,000 bike. Margin is margin, whether it be $3000 on that one bike or $150 each on those 20 bikes. What you don't get is returning customer numbers..but that's unpredictable. Some just looking at the $10,000 halo bike will return as it's seen as a 'pro' bike vs a 'department store' bike.Much higher chance of getting 5 long term customers when selling 20 bikes than when selling 1 bike. A $60 tune-up is a $60 tune-up on a $500 bike and a $10,000 bike. Rather have 5 or 6 of them than 1.

[oldpotatoe]

fuel prices have to keep going up before people will ride more. even a lot of you cats dont think of a bike as transport, just some way to get exercise. even my riding buddies here when they see a strava at 14mph at 530am they wonder what the heck i was doing.

well lets see, im slow, its morning, the ride ended not at my house, what might i be doing? :fight:

also, the bike industry is sort of eating itself up with all the new crap. they seem to have folks convinced discs and electric are the future, why cant they make money off it? too many folks on the payroll?

Doubt it..when gas was $4-$5 a gallon, bike use didn't go up much. When fuel is scarce, that's when alternative transportation will happen..but that will be the least of your problems..look up 'anarchy'....

[oldpotatoe]

Much higher chance of getting 5 long term customers when selling 20 bikes than when selling 1 bike. A $60 tune-up is a $60 tune-up on a $500 bike and a $10,000 bike. Rather have 5 or 6 of them than 1.

I think the 'sweet spot', isn't a $500 bike nor a $10,000 bike but somewhere in the $3000 or so range. $500 bike buyers ride their bike about 5 times a year..they don't come in for tuneups, bike clothes, etc..not even tires. A $3000 bike buyer is an 'enthusiast', knows something about bikes, dresses the part, rides pretty often...so...3-4 $3000 bikes vs one $12,000 bike but those who sell $3000 bikes will also sell 1-2 $12,000 bikes. Bicycle Village here in the republic(trek store) probably sells about zero $12,000 treks. Vecchio's average bike sale is in the $4500 or so..I was in there the other day where he was delivering a Moots DR and taking a deposit for a Moots RSL DiscRoad from the same guy($12,000..BTW)..it really is about economy of scale as compared to your fixed costs. The gent down the street's rent is about $12,000 PER MONTH(Giant store)..lotsa Giants gotta go..why he opened the front as a bar/coffee shop..

[Elefantino]

When Wiggle and/or Chain Reaction open U.S. operations that will further dent the LBS. It was inevitable, I suppose.

[AngryScientist]

interesting thread.

with regard to specialization of bikes - it's amazing how fast people are swallowing it. even looking at this forum - there is a huge shift right now to fat tire bikes with etap and disc brakes. the "show me your gravel bikes" thread has evolved over the years to much more specialized equipment than it was just a few years ago when we were all riding fattr tire road bikes or cyclocross bikes on "gravel".

i personally have zero interest in swapping out my wheels to disc, or getting rid of my shift cables, etc and it hasnt stopped me, or restricted my riding at all, but the industry has unquestionably shifted away from traditional equipment.

allowing a slight thread veer to a parallel topic, my dad is pretty old now and i'm coordinating some medical care for him. it's amazing what's happening (from my perspective) in the medical community - very similar to the bike industry. Everything now requires a specialist.

There are some heart issues, and now, instead of a single cardiologist - he is seeing a fluid guy, an electro guy, a valve guy, etc etc. there are a dozen specialty doctors who stop in and see him daily now, undoubtedly whacking his insurance for a chunk of change each time. there seems to be no general "doctor" who can do it all managing the whole circus.

personally i think it's ridiculous, the level of specialization that exists (for not too special or serious of a condition, mind you, this is not ground breaking treatment we are talking here).

[JAGI410]

Also consider this...which is a bit extreme, but plausible...

Since Zwift/ECycling is growing rapidly, this means less "in person" group rides. This means less cycling clothing sales, less tubes/tires due to flats, less "if I only had carbon wheels like Tom up there I could go faster", less exposure to new gear/accessories. It means less exposure to bike shops.

Think about it. If you're only riding at home, you no longer have the safety concerns. You no longer need a bike rack to transport your bike to a ride. The effects of the growth of ECycling will potentially be felt all across the industry.

[Mr. Pink]

Much higher chance of getting 5 long term customers when selling 20 bikes than when selling 1 bike. A $60 tune-up is a $60 tune-up on a $500 bike and a $10,000 bike. Rather have 5 or 6 of them than 1.

Dude, 90% of those cheap bikes are destined to rust and collect dust in garages and basements. The 10,000 bike will be used and serviced a lot. And yeah, high margin. Why do you think American car makers don't even bother making cheap, compact cars here? Margin.

[oldpotatoe]

Dude, 90% of those cheap bikes are destined to rust and collect dust in garages and basements. The 10,000 bike will be used and serviced a lot. And yeah, high margin. Why do you think American car makers don't even bother making cheap, compact cars here? Margin.

I agree but margin is margin...Whether it be a $500 or a $10,000 bike. The amount is higher but the percentage is the same...(divide cost by 'about .35-.4)..but gotta add labor yo build, sell and do that '1 free service'..that eats into the margin quickly.

Trucks are different..those are YUGE margins compared to a sedan plus BIG $, since they are in high demand. Try to find a good, used, lowish mileage midsize PU truck for less than about $15,000....:eek:

[Butch]

One thing to consider with this conversation is getting kids on bikes. Growing up, Schwinn dealers were what a bike shop was and it was about kid's bikes. No matter the style of riding, getting the youth of the community on bikes safely and effectively is where the bike community should start.

15 years ago my wife started a Safe Routes to School program here in the Boat that includes bike rodeos to teach kids the basics and includes the never ever kids that haven't had the chance to ride. The look on their faces as they ride for the first time is priceless. The local shops come out and help as well as the teachers and parents, this is an active community so that makes a big difference. For my taste the big guns should put their money there and to a good extent they have supported NICA and the growth there is very encouraging.

I believe the biggest loss the industry has with IB going down is this lack of community to supply and build the next generation. Sea Otter is inspiring as the number of kids there is awesome. Having more events where all the manufacturers take part and have a broad spectrum of people show up for some fun is essential. Living in a ski town we have all watched as the ski area battles to get people on the mountain to ski and they have banded together with combo passes that just might get more folks on the slopes.

In regard to the prices of bikes and how the shops and manufacturers make money, as has been pointed out, selling higher priced bikes is more profitable. For the manufacturer the fixed costs of importing a bike, paint, assembly, boxing, shipping, reassembly and selling is pretty much the same for a $500 bike as a $5000 or $10,000 bike. The big guys figured this out a few years ago and they focused and targeted those of us who were in the premium bike market. And it worked. It does not build the base however.

[Clean39T]

Also consider this...which is a bit extreme, but plausible...

Since Zwift/ECycling is growing rapidly, this means less "in person" group rides. This means less cycling clothing sales, less tubes/tires due to flats, less "if I only had carbon wheels like Tom up there I could go faster", less exposure to new gear/accessories. It means less exposure to bike shops.

Think about it. If you're only riding at home, you no longer have the safety concerns. You no longer need a bike rack to transport your bike to a ride. The effects of the growth of ECycling will potentially be felt all across the industry.EM Forster, The Machine Stops:

https://youtu.be/nJk9gk9Ow4I

Appears that's where we're headed.


.
.

That said, it's 33deg out, had freezing rain overnight, and my interest in getting to my group ride is dwindling by the minute this morning.

.
.

Have to readjust the day and hope for drier roads and mid-40s by noon.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[sitzmark]

Also consider this...which is a bit extreme, but plausible...

Since Zwift/ECycling is growing rapidly, this means less "in person" group rides. This means less cycling clothing sales, less tubes/tires due to flats, less "if I only had carbon wheels like Tom up there I could go faster", less exposure to new gear/accessories. It means less exposure to bike shops.

Think about it. If you're only riding at home, you no longer have the safety concerns. You no longer need a bike rack to transport your bike to a ride. The effects of the growth of ECycling will potentially be felt all across the industry.

"ECycling" has been around a very long time in the form of "spinning". In the recent past 10 years or so spinning boomed at gyms around the country ... and is now in decline (at least gyms I've been in). Local LBS' with indoor training sessions seem to be keeping their core membership but that's about it. Personally I hate indoor cycling - including Zwift - but know it is part of staying in condition. Honestly if indoor cycling had been my introduction to cycling I would have quit a long time ago. That said, it is very possible I do not represent the average potential cyclist/rider.

Interest in cycling seems to be "organic" without any catalyst driving interest. Gas prices /availability has been a motivator in the past. Eco-friendly has expanded participation. Little Johnny/Suzzie getting to bike age prompts mom and dad to get the youngster a bike and become active in biking again ... for a while. The TdF creates an annual spark of interest, much like New Year's resolutions to lose weight. There's no dominant US rider or team making news or provoking excitement about cycling. It's difficult to create that momentum just on advertising/marketing alone.

[bfd]

When Wiggle and/or Chain Reaction open U.S. operations that will further dent the LBS. It was inevitable, I suppose.

Here’s a scenario, a few years ago my lbs was concerned about Canyon and other direct sales companies coming to the US to dominate the market and taking away sales. He even contacted Canyon and offered to be a local repair shop for them. They refused.

So now that Canyon is here in the US, have they dominated the market? In the SF Bay Area, I see a few Canyons out there, but no more than any other mfr. Further, the Canyons I see appear to be in the $3k and up range. In our group one guy got a Canyon with Ultegra di2 and disc brakes. Another guy wants the $6500 model that has etap and disc. But that’s it, so far...what’s your experience?

[Clancy]

One thing to consider with this conversation is getting kids on bikes. Growing up, Schwinn dealers were what a bike shop was and it was about kid's bikes. No matter the style of riding, getting the youth of the community on bikes safely and effectively is where the bike community should start.

15 years ago my wife started a Safe Routes to School program here in the Boat that includes bike rodeos to teach kids the basics and includes the never ever kids that haven't had the chance to ride. The look on their faces as they ride for the first time is priceless. The local shops come out and help as well as the teachers and parents, this is an active community so that makes a big difference. For my taste the big guns should put their money there and to a good extent they have supported NICA and the growth there is very encouraging.

I believe the biggest loss the industry has with IB going down is this lack of community to supply and build the next generation. Sea Otter is inspiring as the number of kids there is awesome. Having more events where all the manufacturers take part and have a broad spectrum of people show up for some fun is essential. Living in a ski town we have all watched as the ski area battles to get people on the mountain to ski and they have banded together with combo passes that just might get more folks on the slopes.

In regard to the prices of bikes and how the shops and manufacturers make money, as has been pointed out, selling higher priced bikes is more profitable. For the manufacturer the fixed costs of importing a bike, paint, assembly, boxing, shipping, reassembly and selling is pretty much the same for a $500 bike as a $5000 or $10,000 bike. The big guys figured this out a few years ago and they focused and targeted those of us who were in the premium bike market. And it worked. It does not build the base however.

Well said

The bicycle is the solution to so many problems and can play a major role in making our planet better. Under the previous administration there was both increased funding and optimism, the current one not so much but that will change.

The key is the industry needs to figure out how to position themselves to not only survive but to be seen as a critically integrated segment of everyday life. The industry needs to lead.

Be interesting to see how bike manufacturers promote and support cycling in countries where the bicycle is considered important daily transportation like The Far East. Is the bicycle industry slumping there?

Scandinavian countries where cycling is much more integrated into daily like. Does the industry experience the big swings it does in the U.S.?

Are there lessons in other places?

[Clancy]

And one more question...

For people that know. Is the industry supported by the cyclists that we represent on this forum, Pink Bike and others of the like? Active riders who tend to buy semi-pricier equipment and more often?

Or the lower end segment of the market? Kids bikes, $500-$800 adult bikes, etc.

[Ralph]

The most successful bike shop owner in this area told me once....."I'm not in the business of selling bicycles". "I'm in the business of selling recreational products and accessories to affluent people". Cyclists, Triathletes, and others. And this guy has been able to spread out his floor area and buy almost a whole city block during his years running this business. I personally think he uses bikes to get them in the door.....it's everything else that makes the business work. I wonder if this approach will continue to work.

[fignon's barber]

I agree but margin is margin...Whether it be a $500 or a $10,000 bike. The amount is higher but the percentage is the same...(divide cost by 'about .35-.4)..but gotta add labor yo build, sell and do that '1 free service'..that eats into the margin quickly.

Trucks are different..those are YUGE margins compared to a sedan plus BIG $, since they are in high demand. Try to find a good, used, lowish mileage midsize PU truck for less than about $15,000....:eek:


I think your missing the point that marauding walrus and I are making. The road bike category is dying because of lack of RIDERS, not because of lack of $10k bikes (or $12k, or $5k....). The infamous ex UCI boss Hein Verbruggen said it over a decade ago when he introduced the technical bans on bikes: that expensive bikes are making access to the sport unattractive and will be the death of cycling.

[MaraudingWalrus]

And one more question...

For people that know. Is the industry supported by the cyclists that we represent on this forum, Pink Bike and others of the like? Active riders who tend to buy semi-pricier equipment and more often?

Or the lower end segment of the market? Kids bikes, $500-$800 adult bikes, etc.This forum is not representative of the vast majority of customer base of most shops and it shocks me to see how many participants on this forum do not realize this. There are obviously niche shops that are dripping in fancy customers with only fancy bikes and cater to them well. But that's not the reality for most shops. Nor can it be. The automotive industry can't suddenly be all Porsche dealerships.


I make money for my shop by fixing flat tires for $15 (tube and labor) on beach cruisers and doing $50 tune-ups on hybrids.

[gemship]

Not sure if this fits in the InterBike thread, but certainly related to it... and the thread about USAC vs. British Cycling.

It feels like the industry has adopted a strategy of continual niche formation in which bikes are marketed to ever more narrow use cases. As an example, there used to be road bikes, then they "discovered" a new geometry called "Endurance", which is positioned as distinct from a racing bike. Same thing has happened with gravel bikes, fat bikes, 27.5 plus, etc.

So, here's my question... is that strategy built on the assumption that it is easier to sell an incremental bike to an existing cyclist than convert a non-cyclist to the sport?

I think that ties in with the USAC discussion, as they seem less concerned about growing the numbers of the amateur ranks. Contrast that with British Cycling which is using Zwift to try to find potential talent.

Not sure if they exist, but would love to see some numbers to see if I'm right about selling more bikes without bringing new people into the sport.

Yeah but aren't "niche bicycles" awesome? There just seems to be more than one way to skin the cat. Also N+1 seems to be very real at least around these parts. As far as road cycling as a competitive sport I wold liken it to hockey. It's expensive and dangerous and kinda clicky within it's own little in crowd. Having said that I guess there's exceptions but surely you can relate to how exclusive it is living in New England as we really don't have a long riding season. Now if you lived in Cali, Texas or FL perhaps a different story. I would still have to side with OP on the safety issue though as I have read about to many hit and runs. At least we do have awesome mountain biking in New England and if you lived in the Boston area and can't make sense of a car then a bicycle/ cargo bike could be the answer. I think change/niche or call it N+1 is good. Whether it just has people buying too many bikes or catching the eye of a newbie thinking twice good question and in that regard marketing keeps the bike industry staying alive. There is a thread on here I read the other day about some 900$ dollar convert most bikes into a cargo bike thingy that although I don't have a need for I thought was just awesome.

[rccardr]

Just a couple of observations, with the caveat that I'm not in the bike business really at all in any way any longer:

The vast majority of people who go to spin class are not bicyclists, or at least not active + ones like folks on this forum. Spin at our local gym is insanely popular, you have to get there a half hour before class to make sure you get one of the 40 available bikes, and they have several classes each day, seven days a week. But participants seldom ride them like bicycles, they ride them like exercise equipment, they don't generally work them too hard, and only about 3-5 of the people in the classes I go to (granted, during winter months) put any real sweat into it. And based on my casual conversations with people in my class, few of them ride 'outside'. So, spin doesn't increase unit sales. I doubt Peloton does, either.

For people in urban areas, the local BikeShare program has replaced the inexpensive or vintage city bike. That cuts a lot of invested riders out of the pool of potential active bike hobbyists, especially those who rode a personal bike for a while and decided they liked it and wanted to upgrade in some way. So, fewer sales.

My local shop (a Trek dealer) is outstanding in many ways (not that I use them for much since I do pretty much everything on my bike collection in my own home shop) and everyone I've sent there has received great service. But they sell a whole bunch more upright bikes than drop bar bikes, and a lot more sub-$1000 bikes than Trek Ones.

An increasing number of participants in group rides and event rides (club centuries and the like, especially where there are 30-60-100 mile options) ride upright bikes, not drop bar bikes. I flew down to Sebring this weekend to ride in the Highland Bike Fest and was amazed at the number of upright format bikes in attendance. So, more hybrid/upright bike sales.

E-bikes are only going to get better, less expensive, and more ubiquitous. A friend recently went on a tour in Croatia. Half of the group was on e-bikes. Friends in the bike tour business tell me that the proliferation and acceptance of e-bikes has doubled- yes, doubled- their booked business. A super-fit friend just bought one for his wife, who has health problems. Now they can ride together at his pace and everyone is happier. And my wife, who also has health problems, sees this and now wants to book a tour in France or Italy. So, more e-bike sales.

I don't know what all this means, but it's a whole lot of change happenin'...

[buddybikes]

I would challenge few reasons for decline:
- Kids aren't active so there are fewer banging around on bmx and whatever
- Streets are more and more unsafe.
- Self traveled touring is getting outright dangerous

Our cell phone society is ruining the sport

If someone wanted, they can get into the sport fairly resonably, just get a 3 year old bike that functions the same at 1/3 the price.

[zap]

edit


So now that Canyon is here in the US, have they dominated the market? In the SF Bay Area, I see a few Canyons out there, but no more than any other mfr. Further, the Canyons I see appear to be in the $3k and up range. In our group one guy got a Canyon with Ultegra di2 and disc brakes. Another guy wants the $6500 model that has etap and disc. But that’s it, so far...what’s your experience?

Re Canyon...I posted my opinion a while back and it hasn't changed.

My wife was interested in getting a new road bike and Canyons 650B caught her attention. Not the big off road 650b size, but big enough for decent roads 25 width.

Anyhow, the Canyon tt is too short, the supplied stem is too short, only manufacturer supporting 650b.....so my wife went to a local bicycle shop 2 weeks ago. The owner built an extra small for her to try out with no guarantee of a sale. She took the extra small 700c out for a spin, loved it and bought the bike.

I will also note that Canyon Ultimate sizing is too short for me as well and the onezee hbarstem in the longer length is too wide.

A buddy of mine in metro DC had a Canyon that he purchased in Germany. I moved to NC right around the time Canyon started selling direct in the USA and have yet to see one purchased from Canyon USA.

[54ny77]

this.

i haven't bought a new bike in about 10 years, and therefore have not added to the multiplier effect in the economy: an original purchase contributing to supporting wages, suppliers, infrastructure, services, and on and on....


If someone wanted, they can get into the sport fairly resonably, just get a 3 year old bike that functions the same at 1/3 the price.

[Matthew]

Canyon isn't the first direct to customer seller correct? Hasn't this been going on for a while now? Can't imagine they are doing that much to change the industry. Just guessing cycling is in a downward swing right now. My area has at least four shops still going. I see a fair amount of riders out most days. Most on drop bars, many very nice ones. Have never seen a Canyon in the wild. As far as kids go they have their faces buried in an electronic device for the most part. If school wasn't in session they likely wouldn't even know what season it was since they are never outside anymore unless they have to be. Far cry from when most of us grew up I'm guessing. Internet sales are a shops worst enemy in my opinion.

[Hellgate]

Much higher chance of getting 5 long term customers when selling 20 bikes than when selling 1 bike. A $60 tune-up is a $60 tune-up on a $500 bike and a $10,000 bike. Rather have 5 or 6 of them than 1.Yup, and the high end buyers seldom come back after the sale.

Back in the late '80's I could sell GT Timberline's all day long. Along with bottles, cages, pumps and helmets at full price.

The high end buyers were typically ill-informed, time wasters, who wanted the bottles, cages and helmets for free, because they were making a "big" purchase. The amount of time and lower margin made it hardly worth the effort. But to be a "real" shop, you had to stock the expensive bikes.

At the time it was Performance and Nashbar who got the best part prices. We couldn't buy at wholesale what they sold at retail. ****mano didn't care one bit about the dealer.

I have to laugh with the bankruptcy of Performance. I feel vindicated.

Fast forward to today, it's only that much worse with internet sales.

[BobbyJones]

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. I spent a good part of the summer driving across the US. I didn't see alot of this going on.
.
.

[peanutgallery]

Years ago (late 90s, early 2000s), December meant selling 200-300 bikes for the Holidays. It was a $hit show to make sure that we did not double sell a bike. We had a master list that was matched up daily to make sure when someone came in to pick up a bike that was a present, it was actually there and ready to go. Boatloads of layaways and what not. Kinda crazy but fun

These days, 10-20 for the month of December. I do better in March/April. Minimal on the kids bikes, we just don't a lot anymore - no one asks. Kids Huffy repairs, more of an oddity than the norm. Middle-aged adults wearing a rut into the ground with a blown out $400 comfort bike? That's more the norm

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. I spent a good part of the summer driving across the US. I didn't see alot of this going on.
.
.

[Gummee]

Well said

The bicycle is the solution to so many problems and can play a major role in making our planet better. Under the previous administration there was both increased funding and optimism, the current one not so much but that will change.

The key is the industry needs to figure out how to position themselves to not only survive but to be seen as a critically integrated segment of everyday life. The industry needs to lead.

Be interesting to see how bike manufacturers promote and support cycling in countries where the bicycle is considered important daily transportation like The Far East. Is the bicycle industry slumping there?

Scandinavian countries where cycling is much more integrated into daily like. Does the industry experience the big swings it does in the U.S.?

Are there lessons in other places?

Until the stigma over riding a bicycle (or moto) for transportation is gone, we're going to continue to fight this fight.

M

[rcnute]

I went to a prominent LBS today. I needed a front QR skewer. Didn't have one. Needed rim tape. None.

I give up.

Ryan

[weisan]

I went to a prominent LBS today. I needed a front QR skewer. Didn't have one. Needed rim tape. None.

I give up.

Ryan

But I bet they have a nice little cafe...

http://content.bikeroar.com/system/content/000/361/258/large/Velocit%C3%A9-Cafe_Bike_Shop_and_Cafe_1.jpg?1511638272

[BobbyJones]

I went to a prominent LBS today. I needed a front QR skewer. Didn't have one. Needed rim tape. None.

I give up.

Ryan

A skewer I understand, but rim tape?!?

[peanutgallery]

I get it, that's pretty lame.

I stock what sells, rim tape is easy and cheap. Can't fix going out of biz for someone

I went to a prominent LBS today. I needed a front QR skewer. Didn't have one. Needed rim tape. None.

I give up.

Ryan

[Burning Pines]

Purchasing power of the average American has been steady or in decline for decades. Growing wealth inequality fragments the market for products into the low end and luxury goods. In the case of a nonessential (to most people) item like a bicycle, demand for that low end can drop out entirely, creating more and more competition for a vanishingly smaller pool of people willing to drop thousands of dollars on a bike(s). Just one more depressing anecdote of late-stage capitalism.

I see these discussions pop up on cycling message boards not infrequently, and most of the comments from both the consumers and industry members are focused around what types of bicycles to sell, online vs traditional retail, etc. That misses the point entirely. Yes, increasing cost of entry to cycling is a problem, but it is an accelerant to a process that would probably be happening even if the industry- and enthusiasts- focused on affordable entry level products and had a welcoming attitude.

I'm about 30 in what's generally considered one of the most cycling friendly cities in the country. Maybe 5% of my friends and peers ride bikes recreationally in a way that would be recognizable to people on this forum (mostly touring and off road, nobody cares about road riding) and even they are chasing the bottom end of what people might consider enthusiast level gear. This should be prime time for people to start getting into the sport. In previous generations people would be settling into their careers, maybe they've bought a starter house... Not in 2018. Consider one guy I know who just bought a base model 27.5+ Salsa Timberjack - that thing is 1200 dollars! That's a ton of money for any normal person, and is considered barely acceptable by modern standards. That's probably half his monthly take home income. And it's not just bikes. Houses here start at maybe 250k. Everyone I know is paying $300+ a month in student loans. How much do you have to care about riding to justify it financially? How much do you need to make for it to even be an option?

IMO the industry and sport are ****ed until we fix the bigger inequities in our economy.

[5oakterrace]

I echo oldpotatoe's comment that 'safety' is a major issue keeping people away from road riding. This is very anecdotal but one friend has had to stop running and bought a Peleton indoor bike. Many of her friends have one. She loves it. Uses it daily. Her concern - safety. And she is an Army grad. I would be curious to see Peleton's sales. Maybe it is a passing fad, but Concept 2 has done very well in the indoor rowing machine world. Peleton checks a lot of boxes: convenient, all year (an issue if you live in a colder climate in winter), safe, and it fits the "relate to one another over the internet" world we live in.

Safety seems to be a leitmotif of our cultural ethos - witness the decline of football, the use of bike helmets, the shootings, the airport color system, the effect of phones on driving safety..... I think 'safety' is on people's minds, perhaps much moreso than in the past...

[El Chaba]

Purchasing power of the average American has been steady or in decline for decades. Growing wealth inequality fragments the market for products into the low end and luxury goods. In the case of a nonessential (to most people) item like a bicycle, demand for that low end can drop out entirely, creating more and more competition for a vanishingly smaller pool of people willing to drop thousands of dollars on a bike(s). Just one more depressing anecdote of late-stage capitalism.

I see these discussions pop up on cycling message boards not infrequently, and most of the comments from both the consumers and industry members are focused around what types of bicycles to sell, online vs traditional retail, etc. That misses the point entirely. Yes, increasing cost of entry to cycling is a problem, but it is an accelerant to a process that would probably be happening even if the industry- and enthusiasts- focused on affordable entry level products and had a welcoming attitude.

I'm about 30 in what's generally considered one of the most cycling friendly cities in the country. Maybe 5% of my friends and peers ride bikes recreationally in a way that would be recognizable to people on this forum (mostly touring and off road, nobody cares about road riding) and even they are chasing the bottom end of what people might consider enthusiast level gear. This should be prime time for people to start getting into the sport. In previous generations people would be settling into their careers, maybe they've bought a starter house... Not in 2018. Consider one guy I know who just bought a base model 27.5+ Salsa Timberjack - that thing is 1200 dollars! That's a ton of money for any normal person, and is considered barely acceptable by modern standards. That's probably half his monthly take home income. And it's not just bikes. Houses here start at maybe 250k. Everyone I know is paying $300+ a month in student loans. How much do you have to care about riding to justify it financially? How much do you need to make for it to even be an option?

IMO the industry and sport are ****ed until we fix the bigger inequities in our economy.

Well worth reading twice...Burning Pines nailed it...

[biker72]

I went to a prominent LBS today. I needed a front QR skewer. Didn't have one. Needed rim tape. None.

I give up.

Ryan

That's just wrong....:eek:

My LBS ,(Where I work), not only have both in stock but if requested a employee would install them. Not a big deal or complicated but the service is there for free.

[oldpotatoe]

I think your missing the point that marauding walrus and I are making. The road bike category is dying because of lack of RIDERS, not because of lack of $10k bikes (or $12k, or $5k....). The infamous ex UCI boss Hein Verbruggen said it over a decade ago when he introduced the technical bans on bikes: that expensive bikes are making access to the sport unattractive and will be the death of cycling.

Well, the road bike segment may be shrinking but I think news of road biking demise is a bit premature. Cycling is flat, remains flat. The 'industry' is trying to boost sales with purpose driven bikes, with the idea that some can be used in a certain way and some cannot. A slew of $500 bikes of any kind won't revive the very flat 'bike' market', as has been implied. Want more people to ride? Make it safer..the number one reason people don't ride or stop riding, regardless of where it is. A lot of vocal people yell that riding on dirt roads is some sort of salvation, it's not, it's still really small niche. But many still want to ride their bike 'around town' safely, on a Sunday afternoon and that isn't happening many places(some, but not enough)..The 'core' of the bike biz is those type of enthusiasts, not you or me.

From Mr M. Walrus
This forum is not representative of the vast majority of customer base of most shops and it shocks me to see how many participants on this forum do not realize this. There are obviously niche shops that are dripping in fancy customers with only fancy bikes and cater to them well. But that's not the reality for most shops. Nor can it be. The automotive industry can't suddenly be all Porsche dealerships.


I make money for my shop by fixing flat tires for $15 (tube and labor) on beach cruisers and doing $50 tune-ups on hybrids.

[oldpotatoe]

I echo oldpotatoe's comment that 'safety' is a major issue keeping people away from road riding. This is very anecdotal but one friend has had to stop running and bought a PelOton indoor bike. Many of her friends have one. She loves it. Uses it daily. Her concern - safety. And she is an Army grad. I would be curious to see PelOton's sales. Maybe it is a passing fad, but Concept 2 has done very well in the indoor rowing machine world. PelOton checks a lot of boxes: convenient, all year (an issue if you live in a colder climate in winter), safe, and it fits the "relate to one another over the internet" world we live in.

Safety seems to be a leitmotif of our cultural ethos - witness the decline of football, the use of bike helmets, the shootings, the airport color system, the effect of phones on driving safety..... I think 'safety' is on people's minds, perhaps much moreso than in the past...

Agree..I built a beautiful Faggin for my wife, OMG, it was gorgeous, yellow, chrome..beautiful..ONE ride with her and some guy came close to her left ear(in a car)..she stopped and I had to ride back to house to get car to pick her(and the bike) up..Cycling is declining not because
-poor choices
-too expensive/too cheap bikes
-wrong sizes
-crappy LBS or internet companies
-etc..

The core of cycling is that picture of kids riding around in their neighborhood and beyond on their bikes in the summer..and where that leads in their and other's future. Safety, riding safely w/o fear of getting smacked by a car..fix that and people will ride...no, I don't know how. I think bike lanes and education goes a long way but a lot even yell about those..when trying to turn left out of one into a 'car' lane..Education....When my grand kids go ride their bikes..I am either with them or they just ride up and down their col-de-sac..NEVER out onto the road. Fer criss sakes, even some of their 'neighbors' roar down the no exit street too fast...

[laupsi]

I'm about 30 in what's generally considered one of the most cycling friendly cities in the country. Maybe 5% of my friends and peers ride bikes recreationally in a way that would be recognizable to people on this forum (mostly touring and off road, nobody cares about road riding) and even they are chasing the bottom end of what people might consider enthusiast level gear. This should be prime time for people to start getting into the sport. In previous generations people would be settling into their careers, maybe they've bought a starter house... Not in 2018. Consider one guy I know who just bought a base model 27.5+ Salsa Timberjack - that thing is 1200 dollars! That's a ton of money for any normal person, and is considered barely acceptable by modern standards. That's probably half his monthly take home income. And it's not just bikes. Houses here start at maybe 250k. Everyone I know is paying $300+ a month in student loans. How much do you have to care about riding to justify it financially? How much do you need to make for it to even be an option?


Curious, how many of your peers have gym memberships and/or personal trainers? my opinion, the change is cultural based, not financial. What % of kids today play board games? How do folks, younger generations, get their entertainment media today, listen to music, etc...?

Also, I know plenty who do not have substantial take home pay, but they do find a way to piss away their disposable income through services they really cannot afford. Buying a new bicycle is relatively cheap in comparison. It’s simply not in their view of options. I also imagine there will be loads of Peleton bikes and gift subscrittions given this Xmas, w/about half left to the wayside come April.

[HenryA]

There are lots of ways to spend money these days that weren’t around a short while back. Its easy for a couple to spend $2500 a year on phone service. Then ya’ gotta have a new phone on a regular basis for another hit. An internet connection and maybe some kind of TV service can hit $1200 yearly. Add in some student loans and there goes a lot of bucks and proportionatly more for those who didn’t come first in the employment lottery.

If one wants to ride, a 1990s aluminum Trek or similar bought used can get you going for a couple hundred dollars. So, some of this isn’t about “can’t ride” but about “can’t ride the ride that the internet experts and marketers tell you you have to have”.

More and more, the industry has become about filling the pipeline and less about satisfying the end user. The goal is to make the comsumer consume what the industry dictates, what industry needs you to buy to hit their numbers. The need for constant expansion of the numbers sold is a shaky house of cards and will fall in on itself.

The current conditions will winnow out some of that as players drop out. For the smartest and best operators at the retail level this will be a good thing once the bloodshed stops.

In the car business there is a saying that “there’s a seat for every ass”, and its true. But the retailer has to be smart enough to be able to make it work. In the end it’s about people and talking to people and most important - listening to people.

The concept store, and the high volumn turn model benefits the manufacturer not the bike shop owner, employees or the consumer. In that version of the world the shop is to simply sell the consumer a new bike rather than have a skewer on hand to make a repair. Get units out the door, buy more and repeat.

I suggest that a model that promotes customer service and satisfaction would go far to make long term success in the bike biz. For a shop to do that they have to make a profit - its their way of putting food on the table. It comes from a properly symbiotic transaction - add value through service to the buyer and be paid for it. A benefit of the bargain for both the seller and the buyer.

[GParkes]

Curious, how many of your peers have gym memberships and/or personal trainers? my opinion, the change is cultural based, not financial. What % of kids today play board games? How do folks, younger generations, get their entertainment media today, listen to music, etc...?

Also, I know plenty who do not have substantial take home pay, but they do find a way to piss away their disposable income through services they really cannot afford. Buying a new bicycle is relatively cheap in comparison. It’s simply not in their view of options. I also imagine there will be loads of Peleton bikes and gift subscrittions given this Xmas, w/about half left to the wayside come April.

Agree completely with Laupsi here. I have a 27 and 29 year old (one self employed and the other working way through med school/field) that have friends that think of nothing spending $100 for brunch at Cheesecake Factory. I believe the younger generation will spend many, many $$ for HIIT classes, Orange Theory, spin classes, and hot yoga because they're looking for the social component. Income inequality is a cop out. Many good used bikes can be had for the cost of six months of these classes, but the bike will last a years and still be worth $100 if they take care of it and want to sell it. I also agree with Spud on the safety component. There have been 5-6 automobile/bike incidents in my area in the last few years resulting in a couple deaths. I have friends that would love to ride outdoors, but are terrified. I'm fortunate that in five minutes I'm pretty much in rural territory with very little traffic. I'm also immune to it after 30+ years.

[bfd]

edit



Re Canyon...I posted my opinion a while back and it hasn't changed.

My wife was interested in getting a new road bike and Canyons 650B caught her attention. Not the big off road 650b size, but big enough for decent roads 25 width.

Anyhow, the Canyon tt is too short, the supplied stem is too short, only manufacturer supporting 650b.....so my wife went to a local bicycle shop 2 weeks ago. The owner built an extra small for her to try out with no guarantee of a sale. She took the extra small 700c out for a spin, loved it and bought the bike.

I will also note that Canyon Ultimate sizing is too short for me as well and the onezee hbarstem in the longer length is too wide.

A buddy of mine in metro DC had a Canyon that he purchased in Germany. I moved to NC right around the time Canyon started selling direct in the USA and have yet to see one purchased from Canyon USA.

Agree, I dislike Canyon, which are basically Giants, because of their policy of having a "standard" sizing for things like stems and bars. If you fit the stem and bar size they offer, then its good. However, any adjustments and you pay for a new one. Now, you could argue that a new stem and bar isn't that much, but if they fit say a 11cm and you need a 10cm, no swapping, buy it. Just seems petty to me?!

Nevertheless, one of my buddies really wants their Ultimate road bike with Sram etap and hydro disc brakes. So he actually went to their outlet showroom somewhere in SoCal and test rode a bike. He confirmed for himself, that the bike fits. So for like $6500, you basically get what other brands sell for $9k+ or at least that's what he told me. So if it fits, then that's not a bad deal!

My LBS told me he knows a shop in Germany and was told that when Canyon came out over there, it has a big negative effect on shops in Germany as they took the $2k to $4k market by storm. A lot of shops closed. So US dealers were fearful. My LBS focuses on service and also doing things like buying and restoring vintage bikes for Eroica. They seem to be surviving.

But it is tough to be a shop and let's hope those independent ones continue to survive. Good Luck!

[Red Tornado]

Purchasing power of the average American has been steady or in decline for decades. Growing wealth inequality fragments the market for products into the low end and luxury goods. In the case of a nonessential (to most people) item like a bicycle, demand for that low end can drop out entirely, creating more and more competition for a vanishingly smaller pool of people willing to drop thousands of dollars on a bike(s). Just one more depressing anecdote of late-stage capitalism.

I see these discussions pop up on cycling message boards not infrequently, and most of the comments from both the consumers and industry members are focused around what types of bicycles to sell, online vs traditional retail, etc. That misses the point entirely. Yes, increasing cost of entry to cycling is a problem, but it is an accelerant to a process that would probably be happening even if the industry- and enthusiasts- focused on affordable entry level products and had a welcoming attitude.

I'm about 30 in what's generally considered one of the most cycling friendly cities in the country. Maybe 5% of my friends and peers ride bikes recreationally in a way that would be recognizable to people on this forum (mostly touring and off road, nobody cares about road riding) and even they are chasing the bottom end of what people might consider enthusiast level gear. This should be prime time for people to start getting into the sport. In previous generations people would be settling into their careers, maybe they've bought a starter house... Not in 2018. Consider one guy I know who just bought a base model 27.5+ Salsa Timberjack - that thing is 1200 dollars! That's a ton of money for any normal person, and is considered barely acceptable by modern standards. That's probably half his monthly take home income. And it's not just bikes. Houses here start at maybe 250k. Everyone I know is paying $300+ a month in student loans. How much do you have to care about riding to justify it financially? How much do you need to make for it to even be an option?

IMO the industry and sport are ****ed until we fix the bigger inequities in our economy.
Sort of along that same line, the group I ride with contains a good number of DINK's. They think nothing of ponying up $3-$5K, and in many cases substantially more, every year or other year for a fresh ride. Some do it with multiple bikes.
I work FT as a tool design engineer, wife PT for a non-profit. Mortgage payment, 3 kids in college, 5 cars (mine, wife & each kid has one) to maintain/insure, etc. No way am I walking into the LBS and coughing up that kind of dough every year or two. Literally can't afford it now, and once kids are off our books, still won't because we'll be catching up on retirement savings/investment.
With what I read regarding the supposed increase in cost of living, near stagnant wages (I am in this group) and again a supposed shrinking middle class, how am I supposed to come up with the scratch to buy this high dollar equipment. Some have been blessed much more financially than I, and that's fine. However, based on what I've read, there's slowly more people moving to the financial situation that I'm in. Yes I have a decent house, decent (all used) cars, we live a fairly comfortable life but can't justify big (to me) purchases like that cyclically. How do I get around it? The newest frame I own is 2010 (mtb), road frame is a 2003, you get the idea. Still ride 10s Campy & 9s dirt drivetrains. My newest fork is a lower end Rockshox bought in early 2000's. Saddles are all in excess of 6 years old. Newest wheel set is 2013 Fulcrum Racing Zero 2-way. Traded a complete bike for it. Running older stuff, trading, bartering is how I keep going. However that isn't going to help the industry when all I buy at LBS or online are small-ticket items. Would love to have newer stuff and invest in the industry but just don't have the $$$. Wonder how many others are in this same boat?
Apologize for the stream of conciousness rambling....

[Burning Pines]

Agree completely with Laupsi here. I have a 27 and 29 year old (one self employed and the other working way through med school/field) that have friends that think of nothing spending $100 for brunch at Cheesecake Factory. I believe the younger generation will spend many, many $$ for HIIT classes, Orange Theory, spin classes, and hot yoga because they're looking for the social component. Income inequality is a cop out. Many good used bikes can be had for the cost of six months of these classes, but the bike will last a years and still be worth $100 if they take care of it and want to sell it.

Very few of my friends have gym memberships. A not small number do yoga. We do it at the community center for 5 bucks a class. Almost everyone I know likes hiking so it's not an aversion to outdoor activities.

I know older folks love to blame every problem on some moral failing of my generation, but the numbers don't lie dude: https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickwwatson/2018/09/25/real-wage-growth-is-actually-falling/#2683109c7284

Add to that precarious employment situations and tight living spaces since everyone needs roommates, and classes might be the way to go for some people. You can cancel a gym membership any time if you lose your job, and it doesn't take up any space in a tiny studio apartment or shared living quarters. Peloton has a huge marketing budget, nobody actually owns them, they take up a ton of space, and are crazy expensive.

Used bikes... sure, but if you don't know anything chances are you'll end up with something that doesn't fit your body or use case, or has mechanical issues that will need a trip to the bike shop to resolve. One thing I would like to see is more legit shops selling both used and new. Sellwood Cycle near me does this and I think they do a good job of catering to all types of riders. But used inventory takes up a lot of space, and retail space has increase in price just as much as houses. You can't order a used model from QBP.

I also agree with Spud on the safety component. There have been 5-6 automobile/bike incidents in my area in the last few years resulting in a couple deaths. I have friends that would love to ride outdoors, but are terrified. I'm fortunate that in five minutes I'm pretty much in rural territory with very little traffic. I'm also immune to it after 30+ years.

No argument from me on this one. I think perceived safety is a big barrier to commuting/transportation-based cycling.

[HenryA]

I’ll second a model that includes used bikes. I kinda wonder if buying up a batch of cheap bikes off CL, giving them a proper tune over the winter and selling them during the season might be profitable.

[glepore]

I’ll second a model that includes used bikes. I kinda wonder if buying up a batch of cheap bikes off CL, giving them a proper tune over the winter and selling them during the season might be profitable.

No. Tried this for a while. The margins are too slim. Pricing is too available using a closed sale search on ebay. Really hard. The only bike I ever made a profit on that was "worth it" was a frankenstein Paramount with "Raleigh" repaint that the seller couldn't convince remote buyers was actually a Paramount. Paid 300 w/ minty NR. It was a unicorn. Fun hobby tho.

[Burnette]

I think all the ideas as to why the industry struggles presented in this thread are true, it's reasonable to believe that many factors are at play.

For newbs and seasoned alike, the safety factor is huge. I can't tell you how many times I've had "the talk" with family and friends as to why I take the risks riding on the road. It gets tough when you have a child, lose a friend who died riding, watch/read stories of riders dying, personal close calls, being passed by drivers whose heads are down looking at a phone.

I'm a road cyclist till about 2 PM, I'm not anytime after that, period. It's just as dangerous, just not as many cars. Riding on the road is something we all worked out in our heads personally, we're wired different, but I totally get it that people think it's crazy and will never, ever do it.

Price. People do indeed splurge just as much or more elsewhere but that's a point right there. They made a choice for that meal or a set of golf clubs and won't do the same for a bike because it isn't something they are into. The fact that cycling doesn't have to be but can be pricey is indeed a factor.

Kids and culture. If my daughter is outside it's never alone, one of us or both are with her. Rightly or wrongly we worry and fear for her safety. This year In NC, in Winston Salem a man tried to get a young girl to get into his car, in Lumberton a man abducted a girl and a life was lost, in Walkertown a girl died crossing the street on her way to school, got hit by a truck. In my youth I rode my bicycle all over Detroit City, alone on the sidewalk and in the streets. Did a full loop of Belle Isle at eight years old on a banana seat bike. Our culture has changed and it does have an impact as kids are growing up in a way different than we did.

Different markets yield different results. So it may be true that high dollar shops are doing well where you are or that the average price of a bike sold in my area is $500. Wage disparity, stagnant wages, job opportunities, community cycling advocacy, many factors will make all of our "outside my door" realities different. So when someone says "this" is what's killing it, it may be true for their area, and be something else in yours.

IMO, like water cycling will always be around, at what level and what kind of niche it will be is the question. With a generation or two that doesn't get exposed to it as much, with a good portion of our population being overweight, the fear of the road always present, if I had to spit ball I would say ecycling/swift and electric bikes will take a good portion of consumers going forward.

[Mikej]

I think we are overlooking a huge point “The Lance Factor “ cycling was brought into the limelight by LA. It sold bikes - cycling now needs a new hero, yes, LA was a hero, but it sold bikes. Think of this, you couldn’t sell Air Jordan’s without Mike-