Tour of Flanders Mega Thread (live discussion, may contain spoilers)

[MattTuck]

Call it Ronde van Vlaanderen if you like, but there is no denying that it is almost upon us. A few extra days of discussion never hurt.

Widely being billed as a Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Sagan thunderdome battle (http://www.velonews.com/2018/03/news/de-ronde-sagan-vs-gilbert-vs-van-avermaet_461139), I am skeptical. There is virtually no chance that Gilbert is going to win in the same style he did last year, and frankly, I'm not sure he would have won if not for a fan's jacket.

These 3 are going to be marking each other so much, there is a good chance for someone else to get away.

Provisional Start List (https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ronde-van-vlaanderen/2018/startlist)

Taylor Phinney is the only American on the start list as of today.

Rather than try to pick winners before the startlist is finalized, let's try to predict what happens the final time up the Paterberg (aka the patisberg, for Sean Kelly fans). Who's first over the top?

I think it is still a group coming into the base, maybe 15 or 20 riders. Maybe a few small breaks form on the climb, with Kwiatkowski (out of nowhere) cresting first. No one wants to work with Sagan or GvA (and Gilbert has already been dropped), so if they're not at the front, everyone is sitting in, leaving it to them to close any gaps.

[Geekonbike]

Sagan was strong at Gent but... Quickstep as a whole seems to be on form with a team full of options.


Not sure who but I think Quickstep will take it. Maybe Terpstra.

[azrider]

I think (or rather HOPE) this is going to be a Gilbert / GVA battle royale. I'm not a fan of Sagan but he had helluva sprint at Wevelgem which no one seemed to be able to match so he'll be a factor for sure.

Still wish they had MUUR/KAPELMUUR as a more 'decisive' climb and more towards the end but what do i know.

Greatest race of the year!! (and best race to ever attend......bar none)


https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/10400157_1137345676466_3108580_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&_nc_eui2=v1%3AAeGPKdIx77p3cC5WjoQHqZofvPpWbMusxlfU pUSCNTj3EvZ9RSh221OTxpuyObmB0NzGPgDZweH6VoB1mvahxq 5hMQtucgDi0d9PB700aMxpkQ&oh=11c6edcf2ed0dead905bc4be1e6ae34a&oe=5B36361D

[JimmyTango]

I'll play:

Sep goes hard up the climb, strings thing out, and eventually is joined by both Terpstera and Stybar along with Moscon, Naesen, and Wout... but Sagan will have Oss to pull him, GVA, Stuyven, and Kwiat and the chase will be on in earnest. Maybe throw Nibali in for good measure.

One of the favorites from G2 (probably GvA or Sagan) will have better legs than the rest and will end up bridging alone up to a dwindling group of leaders, making contact, and getting to play cat and mouse until the end is decided by a final big move in the last K... In this fantasy I've got money on the finale being contested between Moscon, Stybar, and GvA. GvA wins because he is cold like ice.

[echappist]

GvA, Vanmarcke, Gilbert, Benoot, and Sagan in the lead group, whittled down to GvA, Gilbert, and Sagan at the top. GvA wins from a 3-up sprint

[JimmyTango]

In reality I don't think Sagan will do it. I any scenario that gets him to the finish in the lead group has him too beat to get the W. IF GvA gets there I think it will be his race to loose, but I think he races too conservatively to get to the front as the most marked man in the field. Kwiat isn't big enough to bash it out solo, and is too dangerous to be allowed any kind of leash so I don't see him out foxing a small group in the finish. The rest of the "favorites" all need at least a bit of luck so its totally dependent on who makes which mistakes. Quickstep looks good, but will have to get lucky and end up with a finale where there are no sprinters to out do Terpstra or Stybar. The way everyone is riding this year (weather permitting of course) I kinda think the safest bet would be on a surprise win by a guy with a sprint... maybe Colbrelli or Demare this year?

[GregL]

Sagan was strong at Gent but... Quickstep as a whole seems to be on form with a team full of options.


Not sure who but I think Quickstep will take it. Maybe Terpstra.
Agreed. Quick-Step for the win. With Gilbert, Stybar, Terpstra, and Lampaert, they have the strongest team and multiple options for a potential winner. Bora is better than previous years with Oss and Burghardt to support Sagan. BMC seems the weakest with only Roelandts to support Van Avermaet. Wildcards in the mix including Benoot and Vanmarcke should make this an exciting race. Looking forward to Sunday AM with a cup of coffee and my iPad. Might even have to bring it up on the big screen!

Greg

[FlashUNC]

Benoot first up. That Strade Bianche ride wasn't a fluke.

[GregL]

Benoot first up. That Strade Bianche ride wasn't a fluke.
Good point. I'm also hoping for a great ride from Wout Van Aert. Not likely on the podium, but a top 10 is very possible. Hopefully he gets support and pointers from Devolder.

Greg

[azrider]

I'm also hoping for a great ride from Wout Van Aert.

the kid definitely has heart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YA8caLN-9M

[MattTuck]

the kid definitely has heart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YA8caLN-9M

How is he able to hold this form for so long? Usually, pro's talk about peaking for a 2-3 week period. And he raced cx this year. Incredible that he is still having good performances on the road.

[crankles]

I will be watching while wearing my Slovak National Hockey jersey hoping for a Sagan win of course. And not that I'm a big Sky fan, but what I would really LOVE to see is Stannard sent out on an early break combined with untimely flats for Moscon and Kwaitkowski. Stannard proceeds to shed the break and ride everyone off his wheel...

Come to think of it, no matter how idiotic, this is a WAY more likely P-R scenario than a RdV, but I can dream.

[MattTuck]

Sports Directors predict Sagan or Van Avermaet

video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=fIYpbxWPaoc)

[livingminimal]

How is he able to hold this form for so long? Usually, pro's talk about peaking for a 2-3 week period. And he raced cx this year. Incredible that he is still having good performances on the road.

Because his natural talent is light years above even some of the most elite classics racers.

He would be the single best classics rider if thats what he chose to do.

But, for now, make 500k euros a year+ racing cross, 750k euros racing both, or just 250k racing on the road for awhile.

I think his dilemma ultimately comes down to value. His value in cross right now is WAY higher than anywhere else.

[weisan]

Here's my podium predictions.

http://alicehui.com/bike/sagan/sagan_snow.jpg

[bheight1]

One thing for sure, going to be a great race! I think WVA will be top 10, puncture today didn’t help DDV. QS will probably run same playbook as E3 and send Terpstra, who I am not a fan of but is in great form. I still think Gilbert is targeting P-R in his #StriveForFive and could be a decoy, form is solid. I can’t believe Kwiatkowski is going to line up with no cobbles under his tires this year, impossible. Benoot, Stuyven, Lampaert, Thuens, van Keirsbulck all have been heralded the “next” Boonen—this is THE Belgian race, time to step up, but I think none are capable. Vanmarcke will probably be 3rd, no surprise. GVA wants this the most but just can’t see him with current form and in a small group with Sagan taking this. So someone from Wolfpack (Terpstra/Stybar), Sagan, or the RVV virgin, Valverde should he be added overnight.

[MattTuck]

Cycling tips gallery (https://cyclingtips.com/2018/03/tour-of-flanders-moments-in-history/)

Recon Ride Podcast (http://www.velonews.com/2018/03/podcast/vn-podcast-recon-ride-previews-tour-flanders-2018_461582)

Cyclingtips podcast (https://cyclingtips.com/2018/03/cyclingtips-podcast-the-tour-of-flanders-and-frame-compliance/)

[Tony T]

.

[thwart]

Taylor Phinney is the only American on the start list as of today.


Yeah... what's up with that, anyway?

[choke]

I saw this elsewhere and thought it was interesting....

1918 - no race
1928 - Jan Mertens (BEL)
1938 - Edgard de Caluwé (BEL)
1948 - Briek Schotte (BEL)
1958 - Germain Derijcke (BEL)
1968 - Walter Godefroot (BEL)
1978 - Walter Godefroot (BEL)
1988 - Eddy Planckaert (BEL)
1998 - Johan Museeuw (BEL)
2008 - Stijn Devolder (BEL)

On the women's side, which is what I follow, I don't think that there is an outright favorite. I would have said Elisa Longo-Borghini but she has the flu and isn't starting. My guess is the winner will come from Boels once again....Anna and Chantal both look strong....but Kasia and AvV will probably be in the mix as well.

[Red Tornado]

Men: QS guys will feature, no doubt, but will one of them win? Looking for Terpstra, Lampaert to get in some moves. I've heard some say Gilbert's form is down but he may be keeping his powder dry. He, Sagan & GvA are unknowns for me but I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three bust out a win. Benoot is another question mark. Seems to be holding good form for a while now, can he keep it going a little longer.
It would make my day to see Sep or Stybar win it. Both long overdue for a win here or next Sunday & a tie for my dark horse picks. Go Sep!!

Ladies: It's a toss up for me between Anna vdB, Kasia N, Annemiek vV, & Chantal Blaak. All on good form. Dark horses are Ellen van Dijk & Jolien dH. Dark, dark horse Lucinda Brand.

[galgal]

No grand predictions but getting excited, hoping it's a great race and wishing I was there. Rooting for GvA for men and Anna for women. "Dark horses" would be great too. Where does that term "dark horse" come from, btw?

[enr1co]

. Thanks for the laugh- this was so me this AM!

[enr1co]

Men: QS guys will feature, no doubt, but will one of them win? Looking for Terpstra, Lampaert to get in some moves. I've heard some say Gilbert's form is down but he may be keeping his powder dry. He, Sagan & GvA are unknowns for me but I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three bust out a win. Benoot is another question mark. Seems to be holding good form for a while now, can he keep it going a little longer.
It would make my day to see Sep or Stybar win it. Both long overdue for a win here or next Sunday & a tie for my dark horse picks. Go Sep!!

Ladies: It's a toss up for me between Anna vdB, Kasia N, Annemiek vV, & Chantal Blaak. All on good form. Dark horses are Ellen van Dijk & Jolien dH. Dark, dark horse Lucinda Brand.

My money is on Ellen van Dijk who is on form as Sunweb is gonna pull it all out to have another Flanders win.

[rnhood]

Go Sagan!!!

[cadence90]

2002: Tafi versus Museeuw versus Van Petegem (http://video.gazzetta.it/giro-fiandre-2002-quando-tafi-sorprese-museeuw-van-petegem/9b25a388-34c2-11e8-b708-7140dbf85c2b?vclk=home_generico|giro-fiandre-2002-quando-tafi-sorprese-museeuw-van-petegem). Tafi destructs them all.

Dai, Nibali!
.

[MattTuck]

I may not be able to watch it live myself, but modified thread title so spoilers are ok.

I am cheering for benoot and vanmarcke.