OT: Stock Market Watch, Q2 2018

[likebikes]

This is a serious thread, only to discuss the ups and downs of the stock market.

Please keep it on topic: previous editions of this thread have been shut down due to trolling or off-topic unfunny puns or similar shenanigans, comments like those are not welcome here. Neither are political comments or jabs. Off topic and unwelcome.

Sadly these threads tend to bring out the trolls, yesterday's thread was shut down due to trolling within hours. Again, please refrain from posing off topic posts in this thread, including political commentary. Mods, please take note and ban offenders.


Down 722 yesterday, another 425 today .

:eek: :bike: :help:

[Tony T]

The issues with the market currently are primarily "Trade War" fears and the effect on earnings.
Unfortunately, to discuss this will only evolve into a political discussion, which will cause the thread to be closed, and it will be impossible to ignore this for the current market.

[FlashUNC]

I admire the tenacity, but it is impossible to discuss market movements like this without the broader geopolitical context that's sparking the market movements.

Tariffs and trade wars are the stuff o' politics man.

But sure, the numbers moved.

[glepore]

He who shall not be named took credit for the rise, so lets see if he steps up to the fall that is sure to come.

[likebikes]

I'm worried that this is just the beginning. It seems like in a lot of ways we still haven't fully recovered from the last crash.

[54ny77]

I blame Di2 headline selling, a.k.a. macro electronic trading.

That said, the S&P 500 PE is, for example, is pretty rich of late.

If your retirement time horizon is now, that blows. It's a perfect storm of declining equities & rising rates.

The 10 year has ruined many a fixed income asset managers' days lately.

[MattTuck]

In olden days, recessions led to a drop in the stock market. Now, because of our blind faith in the so called 'wealth effect', we must never allow markets to drop because it might lead to a recession. It is bizzaro world. You'll probably hear some jaw boning this weekend from some lackie of the Fed talking about how they may slow the pace of rate hikes this year.

[Tony T]

I'm worried that this is just the beginning.

It will really depend on how/if China retaliates to the 50 billion in Trade Tariffs and Other Penalties .
So far, not too much, but if they step it up, and reduce their investment in US Treasuries, then, yes, this is just the beginning.

[Tony T]

It seems like in a lot of ways we still haven't fully recovered from the last crash.

Huh?? DOW is up 400+% since the `08 Crash.

[MattTuck]

Huh?? DOW is up 400+% since the `08 Crash.

Yeah, and real median incomes have barely moved. We've saddled future generations with an additional $10 trillion in debt, and too big to fail banks are even more systematically important.

The Dow is an index of 30 huge companies, but hardly a relevant yardstick for measuring anything except for expectations about their future profits; let alone how robust the overall economy is.

[FlashUNC]

To Matt and other's point, the issue with the recovery is that it feels uneven and artificial, that a reckoning still exists underneath the Fed's unprecedented support of the economy (and central banks globally more generally) over the last decade.

Their balance sheets exploded in size to keep cheap money in the system. What happens to the system when that firehose turns into a garden hose?

[Tony T]

I agree that from `08 to `15 the economy was not recovering from the `08 crash, however, the past few years has seen the economy improving.
And yes, the DOW is only 30 large companies, but the S&P 500 in the last 10 years has risen from its `08 crash low of 666 to 2,588

[FlashUNC]

I agree that from `08 to `15 the economy was not recovering from the `08 crash, however, the past few years has seen the economy improving.
And yes, the DOW is only 30 large companies, but the S&P 500 in the last 10 years has risen from its `08 crash low of 666 to 2,588

The stock market is not the economy and vice versa.

[Tony T]

The stock market is not the economy and vice versa.

I know, then why are you bringing the economy up in the "OT: Stock Market Watch, Q2 2018" thread? ;)

[Blown Reek]

This is why my portfolio is nothing but BitCoin and Lukoil.

[Mr. Pink]

The issues with the market currently are primarily "Trade War" fears and the effect on earnings.
Unfortunately, to discuss this will only evolve into a political discussion, which will cause the thread to be closed, and it will be impossible to ignore this for the current market.

Yeah. I mean, the market is down because there is an ignorant person in a very powerful position who is basically campaigning to extend his hold on this very powerful position. Simple. There are no other reasons. The world economy is fine. Profits are fine. Cash holdings by corporations are great, and, with this new tax law, will increase even more. Much more. And the market is freaked that he fired the former president of Goldman Sachs as his chief economic advisor and replaced him with a fake TV economist. It's ridiculous. But, maybe the bright spot is that the powerful people in other bodies of government, who are rich, and take their marching orders from even richer people, will put a stop to this idiocy. Meanwhile, millions of Americans who hold stocks, who are far from the majority, but hold much more influence than poor people, are about ten percent poorer than they were on Monday. This will not sustain itself. Money talks, and somebody is going to walk.

[notsew]

Yield curve continues to flatten, retail investment is at all time highs, everything is overpriced, credit is too accessible. Other economic fundamentals are sound and even improving, the last unemployment report shot the markets up 2%, and we were't talking about that. More than anything, I think everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop and inconsistency from policy makers certainly plays into the fears of money managers and retail investors alike. I was watching cnbc for a moment today and you'd have thought there was an asteroid headed towards earth. I can't see how you get the jitters out of the market at this point.

[54ny77]

CNBC is an absolute joke.

I've found the better market news comes from overseas.

Yield curve continues to flatten, retail investment is at all time highs, everything is overpriced, credit is too accessible. Other economic fundamentals are sound and even improving, the last unemployment report shot the markets up 2%, and we were't talking about that. More than anything, I think everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop and inconsistency from policy makers certainly plays into the fears of money managers and retail investors alike. I was watching cnbc for a moment today and you'd have thought there was an asteroid headed towards earth. I can't see how you get the jitters out of the market at this point.

[Mr. Pink]

Simple question. Where else are you going to make money in a still ZIRP world?

RE? That party ended ten years ago. Commodities? China has credit woes, too.

[joosttx]

Simple question. Where else are you going to make money in a still ZIRP world?

RE? That party ended ten years ago. Commodities? China has credit woes, too.

Real estate?

[oldpotatoe]

Real estate?

One word, plastics....and war is good for business...:eek:

[notsew]

Simple question. Where else are you going to make money in a still ZIRP world?

RE? That party ended ten years ago. Commodities? China has credit woes, too.

Fair point

[ripvanrando]

10 year expectations and Fed Funds rate increases are not positive for equities especially interest rate sensitive sectors like utilities and REITs

Many REITs are down 20-40% in the past year.

Southern and Dominion, two stellar utilities, are down 20% over the past 4-6 months.

Personally, I do not see the Fed being able to normalize rates to the extent planned or hoped owing to cost of servicing debt and the drag on the economy. The bond market has been screaming for many months. It is not inevitable that the stock market declines further and who knows, but a decent correction is long overdue and Powell's finger does not seem so fat on the SP overnight futures as his predecessor

[ripvanrando]

Simple question. Where else are you going to make money in a still ZIRP world?

RE? That party ended ten years ago. Commodities? China has credit woes, too.

I hear making pizza pays well in Arizona.

I can make a call for you.

[happycampyer]

I hear making pizza pays well in Arizona.

I can make a call for you.I just got around to reading that other thread—that is really funny.

[KarlC]

I hear making pizza pays well in Arizona.

I can make a call for you.

Its not about how much she makes, its about how much she spends

[Mr. Pink]

I hear making pizza pays well in Arizona.

I can make a call for you.


She's probably more concerned about her grandma's trust fund dropping big time. If she has a clue. Probably not. Next Thanksgiving, she'll be given the bad news. Sweetheart, time to get a job. We've arranged something at your uncle's firm. Don't worry, it won't be hard. Gotta give up that weird OCD biking thing. We contacted a doctor about that. You'll be fine. Don't worry. Please, don't cry.

[Tony T]

Can someone explain or link to w.t.f. you're talking about? :)

[gasman]

Just Stop This

I'm closing this thread and handing out infractions.