OT: New Tesla Roadster

[ravdg316]

0-60 in 1.9 seconds and 620 miles of range.

"But can you put a rack on it?"

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-new-tesla-roadster-just-blew-our-minds/

[R3awak3n]

I think the semi is even cooler. 0-60 in 5 seconds. 500 miles of battery at 65mph.

[AngryScientist]

I think the semi is even cooler. 0-60 in 5 seconds. 500 miles of battery at 65mph.

that's truly a game changer. excited to see where this will go. could do wonders for air quality in certain densely trucked areas.

[FlashUNC]

They may want to worry about actually producing all those Model 3's first.

[Ralph]

Will either of them actually be built? Or is this just another cash raise (deposits) for the company?

[MattTuck]

They may want to worry about actually producing all those Model 3's first.

No, you don't understand :)

They're going to use the money they get from pre-orders of the new roadster to pay for Model 3's production. Then when they need to make the new roadster, they'll have something new that they can announce and the pre-orders for that new thing will finance the production of the roadster.

[SoCalSteve]

No, you don't understand :)

They're going to use the money they get from pre-orders of the new roadster to pay for Model 3's production. Then when they need to make the new roadster, they'll have something new that they can announce and the pre-orders for that new thing will finance the production of the roadster.

Very Bernie Madoff.

But, on a completely separate topic, I do know Elon Musk’s mother ( she lives in my building and her dog like my dog ).

[cmg]

They may want to worry about actually producing all those Model 3's first.

i suspect this is more about getting a higher profit margin than they'll make than the model 3 and generating some growing room. people will pay for speed especially as this pushes into supercar range. probably doesn't cost more to produce than the model 3 with profit 4-5 times more.

[ultraman6970]

Would love to drive the car but the truck has me asking about how it will drive... sure has AT, motor in each wheels, that thing has to drive awesome.

With 500 miles range those trucks can do just simple trips but the range is large enough to make it worth it for the companies.

Want to drive the f... truck now!!

[Anarchist]

that's truly a game changer. excited to see where this will go. could do wonders for air quality in certain densely trucked areas.

Standard diesel powered rig will do 1000 miles on full tanks.

500 miles means more stops (if the stops have chargers), longer stops, longer trip times for cargo and less earnings for drivers who get paid by the mile - no matter how long those miles take.

It also appears that the unit doesn't work with industry standard trailers which is a death knell.

This is typical Musk vapourware

[FlashUNC]

i suspect this is more about getting a higher profit margin than they'll make than the model 3 and generating some growing room. people will pay for speed especially as this pushes into supercar range. probably doesn't cost more to produce than the model 3 with profit 4-5 times more.

Sure, but they've got 100k-plus customers who will show up with torches and pitchforks if their electric Tesla for the masses isn't in their hands while they roll out shiny new models for Richie Rich.

They've also got to worry about hitting the cap on the EV tax credit as possibly the first carmaker to hit that threshold. Sure some buyers won't be thrilled their Model 3 costs $7k more than the one that rolled off the line right behind it.

[ravdg316]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/walmart-orders-5-of-teslas-new-electric-tractor-trailers/ar-BBF5MuO

I understand that Tesla gets some heat for not delivering when they promise, but I don't understand the criticism for using other people's money to fund ventures. That's just fundamental.

[GonaSovereign]

The people at Nikola Corp need to up their marketing game. This semi was introduced last year, with better specs.
https://nikolamotor.com/one

[Ti Designs]

Ignoring the problems of production (and irate customers), how many people can handle a car that does 0-60 in 2 seconds? I'm pretty sure I can't, and I'm no stranger to driving fast cars.

[fignon's barber]

They may want to worry about actually producing all those Model 3's first.


Musk is waiting until the customers can pay with Bitcoin.

[RoadWhale]

Ignoring the problems of production (and irate customers), how many people can handle a car that does 0-60 in 2 seconds? I'm pretty sure I can't, and I'm no stranger to driving fast cars.

This^^^^^

Unless Tesla will rely on "computer assisted" driving to guide that missile, many people who have the financial resources but not the driving skill will learn just how fast 60-0 is possible.

[Anarchist]

Some commentary on the numbers put forward by Musk,

http://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-the-inconvenient-truth-about-teslas-truck?_=1510948505333

Musk, to be me, is just a 21st century snake oil salesman.

This is not going to end well.

[ultraman6970]

The only thing i did not like about the truck was the "solo driving mode", you cant rely in a computer to drive that thing, the radar fails and you kill like 100 people with that darn truck.

[josephr]

Standard diesel powered rig will do 1000 miles on full tanks.

500 miles means more stops (if the stops have chargers), longer stops, longer trip times for cargo and less earnings for drivers who get paid by the mile - no matter how long those miles take.

It also appears that the unit doesn't work with industry standard trailers which is a death knell.

This is typical Musk vapourware

wrong market...Europe will purchase these in droves long before any headway will be made in the U.S. Still, the bigger shops with multiple transfer/distribution centers will adopt first. Think about UPS trucks running loops routes from Louisville to Pittsburgh to Detroit back to Louisville with drivers just swapping out truck units. Also think about Wal-Mart/Target making delivery routes. Owner/Operators and long-haul OTR drivers will be last to make the move and likely pushed out of business as mileage rates decrease. A $.05/mi difference adds up really fast.

A second option will be for the trucks to run mobile diesel generators for back-up. Not a far-fetched idea as train locomotives have been doing this half a century now. Its just scaled down technology.


Edit: Wal-Mart/J.B. Hunt have placed orders. :)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-electric-semi-truck-gets-orders-from-wal-mart-and-j-b-hunt-1510950438

[Vientomas]

Holy ugly ass windshield wiper Batman! What a blot on the aesthetic :eek:

[MattTuck]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/walmart-orders-5-of-teslas-new-electric-tractor-trailers/ar-BBF5MuO

I understand that Tesla gets some heat for not delivering when they promise, but I don't understand the criticism for using other people's money to fund ventures. That's just fundamental.

I think they're burning like $15 million per day at their current burn rate. How many cars, even if you figure a healthy profit per car do they need to sell to start breaking even?

And, they have plenty of US Government backed loans that has funded this venture. My friend did the math, every man, woman and child in this fine nation has about $2 of exposure to this boondoggle last time he looked. Might be more today, or less, not sure.

Burning through investor money makes it an interesting situation. Burning through tax payer money makes it an outrage. Especially when he's trying to run 3+ other companies, while this one appears to be imploding.

[jlwdm]

I think they're burning like $15 million per day at their current burn rate. How many cars, even if you figure a healthy profit per car do they need to sell to start breaking even?

And, they have plenty of US Government backed loans that has funded this venture. My friend did the math, every man, woman and child in this fine nation has about $2 of exposure to this boondoggle last time he looked. Might be more today, or less, not sure.

Burning through investor money makes it an interesting situation. Burning through tax payer money makes it an outrage. Especially when he's trying to run 3+ other companies, while this one appears to be imploding.

Really? He is a creative dreamer making things happen in many areas. Some will be more successful than others. But he is trying.

I don't think he is too worried about criticism from people on internet forums. He is too busy moving forward.

It is a lot easier to criticize than to create.

Jeff

[ravdg316]

I think they're burning like $15 million per day at their current burn rate. How many cars, even if you figure a healthy profit per car do they need to sell to start breaking even?

And, they have plenty of US Government backed loans that has funded this venture. My friend did the math, every man, woman and child in this fine nation has about $2 of exposure to this boondoggle last time he looked. Might be more today, or less, not sure.

Burning through investor money makes it an interesting situation. Burning through tax payer money makes it an outrage. Especially when he's trying to run 3+ other companies, while this one appears to be imploding.

He's taking money from wherever he can at the cheapest rate possible. That's just like any company in any industry trying to fund new ventures.

Lots of industries have subsidies that maybe shouldn't. Oil and corn come to mind. There are far worse purposes for tax dollars than spending them on Tesla.

[FlashUNC]

Really? He is a creative dreamer making things happen in many areas. Some will be more successful than others. But he is trying.

I don't think he is too worried about criticism from people on internet forums. He is too busy moving forward.

It is a lot easier to criticize than to create.

Jeff

The problem with that Randian ideal is if Tesla goes belly up, taxpayers will be one of the many constituencies holding the bag.

It's the classic privatizing of gains, socializing of losses. Forget the people who don't have cars or don't have support for those cars, the fallout would go a lot further than Musk's personal bank account and those aggreived customers.

At some point, the company will need to produce at scale. They're showing little evidence they can do what other car companies mastered a long time ago in production.

[Spaghetti Legs]

I think they're burning like $15 million per day at their current burn rate. How many cars, even if you figure a healthy profit per car do they need to sell to start breaking even?

And, they have plenty of US Government backed loans that has funded this venture. My friend did the math, every man, woman and child in this fine nation has about $2 of exposure to this boondoggle last time he looked. Might be more today, or less, not sure.

Burning through investor money makes it an interesting situation. Burning through tax payer money makes it an outrage. Especially when he's trying to run 3+ other companies, while this one appears to be imploding.

Tesla paid back the $465 mil Federal loan in 2013. To my knowledge, that was the only Federal backed loan specific to Tesla. The tax credits, etc are not Tesla specific and are analogous, though dwarfed by, the variety of tax credits provided to Big Oil. Tesla is not a car company, but an energy storage and distribution as well as EV company. One day they will license their Supercharger network for other EVs to use (and/or start making all the Tesla owners pay to use them), they will still have a massive chunk of a much larger EV market, and they will have cornered the large capacity battery market with the Gigafactory. The business is sound.

[fogrider]

how many hours are you allowed to drive before you are required to take a break?


Standard diesel powered rig will do 1000 miles on full tanks.

500 miles means more stops (if the stops have chargers), longer stops, longer trip times for cargo and less earnings for drivers who get paid by the mile - no matter how long those miles take.

It also appears that the unit doesn't work with industry standard trailers which is a death knell.

This is typical Musk vapourware

[SoCalSteve]

how many hours are you allowed to drive before you are required to take a break?

Cuz it’s the Federal government, it’s a bit complicated:

https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulations/hours-service/summary-hours-service-regulations

[dustyrider]

I’m no expert, but it seems to me the electric semi is way more better than the electric car in a lot of ways.

Guidelines for commercial drivers make the 500 mile range pretty realistic at this point. Yes, cross country/teams are going to burn fuel and maybe keep a second book, but I get the feeling that a substantial amount of commercial shipping is done within a 500 mile radius, or turn around, and the books are more or less accurate. Keeping drivers and insurance awake and happy respectively seems like a no-brainer at the 500 mile range. Commercial vehicles have to have higher yearly mileage averages than cars, so their emission contributions must be pretty high even if there isn’t as many of them as cars. Commercial vehicles also seem to be handling more and more of the goods we all purchase which is really all America seems to do anymore. Don’t forget maintenance! Big companies don’t like red. All this says nothing about the environmental toll of batteries or that generating power isn’t exactly clean, and of course someone actually needs to make them first, but e-cars have always seemed like a band-aid for a select few who can afford them when full on semi-truck sized stitches is what everyone could really benefit from.

Now the self driving thing is interesting. Will self driving vehicles get their own lane, then their own road? Will they all line up behind one another like one long train? :rolleyes:

[SoCalSteve]

Standard diesel powered rig will do 1000 miles on full tanks.

500 miles means more stops (if the stops have chargers), longer stops, longer trip times for cargo and less earnings for drivers who get paid by the mile - no matter how long those miles take.

It also appears that the unit doesn't work with industry standard trailers which is a death knell.

This is typical Musk vapourware

This doesn’t really apply to “solo” over the road truckers as they are regulated by the Federal government. Driving double team is a different story. A driver can only drive so many miles per day-per week, etc.

The trucks can be charged while they are taking their federally mandated breaks. These rules are enforced by truck stops and drivers log books.

[cachagua]

Just curious, has Musk stated a position on where he thinks electricity ought to come from?

[cribbit]

Just curious, has Musk stated a position on where he thinks electricity ought to come from?

He owns large portions of solar stuff. I would guess that's just the area where he sees the most room for innovation to breed profit. Most people into electrical stuff see a combination of solar, wind and nuclear (with hydro where possible) being the answer.

[ajhapps]

Just curious, has Musk stated a position on where he thinks electricity ought to come from?

From here: https://www.tesla.com/energy

[alancw3]

bob lutz interview about tesla:

http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-lutz-former-gm-exec-says-tesla-is-a-losing-enterprise-2017-11

of course wasn't bob lutz at the helm of gm when it needed a bailout form the federal government?

[alancw3]

[QUOTE=SoCalSteve;2264693]Very Bernie Madoff.

i do kind of agree with this. i think not an easy task to get a large volume auto production line up and running.

[Louis]

He owns large portions of solar stuff.

A buddy of mine at work told me a while ago that it takes more energy to make any given photo voltaic cell than you'll ever get from it in it's entire lifetime.

I don't know if that's true or not, but if it is, then PV cells are merely a means of shifting the environmental damage / cost of the energy produced from the end-user (say, US or Europe) to the location where they're made (say, China).

That's somewhat true regardless of the ratio of input to output, but for the earth's environment as a whole that would truly be galling.

Does anyone know if the "you'll never get out more than you put in" statement is true?

[oldpotatoe]

Very Bernie Madoff.

But, on a completely separate topic, I do know Elon Musk’s mother ( she lives in my building and her dog like my dog ).

I would have thought Elon's mom would live somewhere like this..:eek:

[Dave B]

I applaud the technology and the inner geek in me finds it interesting, BUUUUUUT

Insert a cliched quote from a fast and furious movie in your mind. I wou,d rather own, drive, and enjoy the hell out of a Doge Demon.

MOPAR!

[NHAero]

In much of the US, it's under two years for the embodied energy of a PV system - it depends on available sunlight and the efficiency of the system.

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf





A buddy of mine at work told me a while ago that it takes more energy to make any given photo voltaic cell than you'll ever get from it in it's entire lifetime.

I don't know if that's true or not, but if it is, then PV cells are merely a means of shifting the environmental damage / cost of the energy produced from the end-user (say, US or Europe) to the location where they're made (say, China).

That's somewhat true regardless of the ratio of input to output, but for the earth's environment as a whole that would truly be galling.

Does anyone know if the "you'll never get out more than you put in" statement is true?

[Spaghetti Legs]

Some commentary on the numbers put forward by Musk,

http://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-the-inconvenient-truth-about-teslas-truck?_=1510948505333

Musk, to be me, is just a 21st century snake oil salesman.

This is not going to end well.

Yeah he totally scammed people with that Paypal concept and sending rockets to the international space station.

[54ny77]

call me cynical.....but the truck and roadster announcement all curiously coincide with being reportedly close to running outta cash.

gotta keep the equity markets enthused. or the gov't subsidies rolling in.

somewhat quietly, they've done some interesting structured financing on the solar side of the fence.

all that aside, the tech is amazing.

[binxnyrwarrsoul]

I think the semi is even cooler. 0-60 in 5 seconds. 500 miles of battery at 65mph.

Full disclosure, I drive a truck for a living, for the last 25 yrs.

Nice fantasy, but 500 miles of battery life with a full load at GVW of 80K lbs? And not much room for much of a load on that truck, with the 22 ton battery needed. Over promising is Musk's modus operandi. If the debacle of 260 of the promised 1500 Model 3's is any indication, the electric semi is quite far off.

http://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-the-inconvenient-truth-about-teslas-truck

[binxnyrwarrsoul]

call me cynical.....but the truck and roadster announcement all curiously coincide with being reportedly close to running outta cash.

gotta keep the equity markets enthused. or the gov't subsidies rolling in.

somewhat quietly, they've done some interesting structured financing on the solar side of the fence.

all that aside, the tech is amazing.

This. When the electric semi announcement came out, with JB Hunt and Walmart placing pre-orders, (which means jack diddly squat as no money will likely exchange hands until a hard deliver date is met and there'll be clauses/penalties if the semis being ready do not meet deadlines, which will be very likely), the share price jumped 4%, but reality must have set in as the share price closed up only .08%. Lawsuits on the Model3 delays don't help.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/31/technology/tesla-shareholder-suit-model-3/index.html

If and it's a gigantic IF the tech can be a reality, yes, it's amazing. As a professional truck driver, the thought of no diesel fumes is quite enticing. This as a reality in a realistic time frame, my bet is nope.

[William]

I applaud the technology and the inner geek in me finds it interesting, BUUUUUUT

Insert a cliched quote from a fast and furious movie in your mind. I wou,d rather own, drive, and enjoy the hell out of a Doge Demon.

MOPAR!

:banana::banana::banana:




William

[Jeff N.]

I'll take two.

[providence]

As someone who works in the transit industry, that tractor is a nonfactor as currently outlined in the US market. Progress? Sure. But that battery range is woefully short to take this announcement seriously. Not to mention charge time and the logistics of availability of stations to recharge.

[Black Dog]

This^^^^^

Unless Tesla will rely on "computer assisted" driving to guide that missile, many people who have the financial resources but not the driving skill will learn just how fast 60-0 is possible.

Go on youtube and there are many many videos of rich morons wrecking supercars who's performance far exceed their ability to drive. This will be no different.

[alancw3]

i guess sometimes in life it takes a leap of faith to move forward from the same old same old. as much as i like what elon musk has accomplished i still hold out for the hydrogen fuel cell as being out best alternative to fossile fuel.

[William]

Go on youtube and there are many many videos of rich morons wrecking supercars who's performance far exceed their ability to drive. This will be no different.

"Slow cars driven fast are always more fun than fast cars driven slow."

https://jalopnik.com/5829059/top-ten-slow-cars-to-drive-fast/


Video...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0MjVlQP8hU




William

[alancw3]

i guess sometimes in life it takes a leap of faith to move forward from the same old same old. as much as i like what elon musk has accomplished i still hold out for the hydrogen fuel cell as being out best alternative to fossile fuel.

[Black Dog]

The Nikola is a way better machine on every level. Hydrogen fuel that is produced with solar power is a win win + a 1200km range. Non of the downsides of heavy batteries and limited load and range that the Tesla is promising. A established and growing network of hydrogen fuelling centres and a 15 minute fill time. So much better than long charging periods. The Tesla would work in a situation where the cargo runs are short haul and repeating. I would prefer a switch to hydrogen powered cars and electric cars. Not this head long rush to electric without any thought for rapid change batteries and swapping stations. electric cars are like bottom bracket "standards" for bikes. If we want to move away from ICE cars we need a way for people to actually go places without extended charging stops, having to plug in everywhere they park etc. This means standardization. We did it with fossil fuels and we can do it with electric and hydrogen cars.

[providence]

As someone who works in the transit industry, that tractor is a nonfactor as currently outlined in the US market. Progress? Sure. But that battery range is woefully short to take this announcement seriously. Not to mention charge time and the logistics of availability of stations to recharge.

Since this probably isn’t common knowledge, drivers have 10hrs of drive time and a total of 14hrs of On Duty (nondriving time - used for breaks, loading/unloading at customers) per day. After shutting down for a total of 10hrs, a driver has his hours back for the following day and can drive again. There’s more to driver hours but this is the jist.

You can see how the claimed 300-500mi range would be an issue.

The tech is headed in the right direction. Just not enough to be used to make drivers or companies profitable. Range needs to go up significantly and weight of the tractor needs to come down substantially to scale he weight needed to haul common goods that these companies are hauling.

[AngryScientist]

Since this probably isn’t common knowledge, drivers have 10hrs of drive time and a total of 14hrs of On Duty (nondriving time - used for breaks, loading/unloading at customers) per day. After shutting down for a total of 10hrs, a driver has his hours back for the following day and can drive again. There’s more to driver hours but this is the jist.

You can see how the claimed 300-500mi range would be an issue.

The tech is headed in the right direction. Just not enough to be used to make drivers or companies profitable. Range needs to go up significantly and weight of the tractor needs to come down substantially to scale he weight needed to haul common goods that these companies are hauling.

i was thinking it might make a dent as far as port operations or other "close haul" trucking needs. ever hang out around a major port when a large container ship comes in? it's an endless coordinated string of trucks coming through as the crane(s) unload the ships, then drop them nearby for future moves. the game is to get the ship unloaded as quickly as possible.

in this type of scenario, there could be a "bank" of charged tractors waiting somewhere and a driver could use a tractor till battery dead and just grab a new one and continue work.

would do wonders to reduce the emissions locally in this scenario.

obviously i only gave this a passing thought, but in the right circumstances, with the right clean air incentives, these could work.

for long haul trucking, probably not there yet.

just some thoughts.

[Anarchist]

i was thinking it might make a dent as far as port operations or other "close haul" trucking needs. ever hang out around a major port when a large container ship comes in? it's an endless coordinated string of trucks coming through as the crane(s) unload the ships, then drop them nearby for future moves. the game is to get the ship unloaded as quickly as possible.

in this type of scenario, there could be a "bank" of charged tractors waiting somewhere and a driver could use a tractor till battery dead and just grab a new one and continue work.

would do wonders to reduce the emissions locally in this scenario.

obviously i only gave this a passing thought, but in the right circumstances, with the right clean air incentives, these could work.

for long haul trucking, probably not there yet.

just some thoughts.

Port jeeps are not $200,000+

[AngryScientist]

Port jeeps are not $200,000+

understood. hence the incentives part. if port cities get serious about cleaning up their air quality, this could be an option.

definitely not thinking we are ready for prime time here, but i see this as progress.

[csm]

Port jeeps are not $200,000+



Depends on the port. CA initiatives have forced many independents to run new trucks. There was an article in the WSJ or USA Today recently about it.
I see trucks like this working for short haul operations. The technology really isn't much different than equipment used in the dc. Electric lift tucks, etc have all but replaced propane-fueled equipment where I work. We've got a huge footprint from LTL to regional/OTR, local and final operations to warehousing, freight-forwarding, etc. Much of what we haul for our customers is well below 25k lbs in a 53' standard van and less than 350 miles total for a day. Something like this would fit very well. The recharge time and battery life would be a concern.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Richard]

A buddy of mine at work told me a while ago that it takes more energy to make any given photo voltaic cell than you'll ever get from it in it's entire lifetime.

I don't know if that's true or not, but if it is, then PV cells are merely a means of shifting the environmental damage / cost of the energy produced from the end-user (say, US or Europe) to the location where they're made (say, China).

That's somewhat true regardless of the ratio of input to output, but for the earth's environment as a whole that would truly be galling.

Does anyone know if the "you'll never get out more than you put in" statement is true?

The statement is categorically false. Studies have shown that, depending on the technology of the actual panel, it takes between 1 and 4 years to result in a net zero of energy to manufacture vs. energy produced. Given that the panels will continue to generate for another 20 to 25 years, there is no issue.

[merlinmurph]

i was thinking it might make a dent as far as port operations or other "close haul" trucking needs. ever hang out around a major port when a large container ship comes in? it's an endless coordinated string of trucks coming through as the crane(s) unload the ships, then drop them nearby for future moves. the game is to get the ship unloaded as quickly as possible.

in this type of scenario, there could be a "bank" of charged tractors waiting somewhere and a driver could use a tractor till battery dead and just grab a new one and continue work.

would do wonders to reduce the emissions locally in this scenario.

obviously i only gave this a passing thought, but in the right circumstances, with the right clean air incentives, these could work.

for long haul trucking, probably not there yet.

just some thoughts.

I was thinking exactly the same thing. I'm in Savannah GA right now which has a huge port. There are tons of trucks doing short hauls with the containers 24 hours a day. I would think that's a pretty good place for first gen electric trucks.

[jlwdm]

The problem with that Randian ideal is if Tesla goes belly up, taxpayers will be one of the many constituencies holding the bag.

It's the classic privatizing of gains, socializing of losses. Forget the people who don't have cars or don't have support for those cars, the fallout would go a lot further than Musk's personal bank account and those aggreived customers.

At some point, the company will need to produce at scale. They're showing little evidence they can do what other car companies mastered a long time ago in production.

On the other hand Tesla has forced the other automakers to up their games regarding electric cars for the good of society.

Jeff

[sand fungus]

That is fantastic numbers for a truck moving 80,000lbs.

But what is not stated is that it takes a huge battery pack to do that. If we assume for a vehicle of that size power required is roughly 1kWh/mi that would mean that the pack has to be at least 500kWh... these packs will cost a lot and weigh a lot. But 500kWh is probably on the low side, typically Lithium-ion packs don't like to be used in the top 20% and bottom 20% of their charge as that reduces their life, so to get 500mi the pack would need to be ~800kWh to get 500mi of range that is claimed. But here is the kicker typical trucks get about 7.5-8.5 on average when assuming no off cycle loads (idling) and using 139,000 btu /gal of diesel the energy per mi is more like 5kWh per mile so the pack to get 500 miles would need to be considerably bigger or have an extensive amount of regeneration figured in. I used the 1kWh estimate which based on all this is a very conservative number in the following calculations.

Cost - Tesla stated that their batteries cost $190 per kWh back in 2016 so that means the cost of a 800kWh pack alone is $128K just for batteries. But lets assume they are getting cheaper with the new factory, call it $110/kWh that is still $88K in batteries alone. A typical class 8 diesel tractor like shown by Tesla would be in the $120K range.

Weight -Tesla claims that 85kWh pack weights 1200lbs or 14lbs/kWh which would be 12,000 lbs for a 800kWh pack but as the weight increases so will the structure to support it so I would estimate closer to 20Lbs or 16,000lbs. A typical 15L diesel engine only weights ~3,500 lbs. That means a truck operator would haul ~10,000lbs less in load which is how they get paid...

So you can get Zero emissions but the truck will have to cost significantly more and weigh considerably meanly less payload and that is using my conservative estimates. What if it is closer to 3kWh, then triple all those number.

Definitely interesting but I think we need to see more of the actual details to see how this will pan out for Tesla and or actual test data from the evaluation trucks to see if it will pan out. Lots of showmanship here which is typical for Tesla/Elon.

[Louis]

Thanks guys - that is good news and I'll tell him that when I see him next week.

In much of the US, it's under two years for the embodied energy of a PV system - it depends on available sunlight and the efficiency of the system.

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf

The statement is categorically false. Studies have shown that, depending on the technology of the actual panel, it takes between 1 and 4 years to result in a net zero of energy to manufacture vs. energy produced. Given that the panels will continue to generate for another 20 to 25 years, there is no issue.

[cmg]

i guess sometimes in life it takes a leap of faith to move forward from the same old same old. as much as i like what elon musk has accomplished i still hold out for the hydrogen fuel cell as being out best alternative to fossile fuel.


tesla will have long run time before hydrogen becomes viable. 3rd party ev conversions kit manufacturers/vendors will spread across the country before hydrogen takes hold. even the Arcimoto a has better chance of coming to market. https://electrek.co/2017/01/05/acrimoto-srk-all-electric-three-wheeler/ hydrogen is another way to sell you fuel. with electric you have a better chance of generating it yourself.

[alancw3]

tesla will have long run time before hydrogen becomes viable. 3rd party ev conversions kit manufacturers/vendors will spread across the country before hydrogen takes hold. even the Arcimoto a has better chance of coming to market. https://electrek.co/2017/01/05/acrimoto-srk-all-electric-three-wheeler/ hydrogen is another way to sell you fuel. with electric you have a better chance of generating it yourself.

you should read the book "car wars the rise and fall of electric cars and resurgence"

https://www.amazon.com/Car-Wars-Rise-Resurgence-Electric/dp/1250048702

basically big oil screwed society on the future of fuel cell cars to preserve their fossil fuel market. if it had not been for big oil fuel cell cars would had been on the market in a big way 10 years ago i.e. tankage requirements and distribution. big oil wants nothing to do with distribution of hydrogen. think about how much big oil benefits from the usa on preserving fossil fuel in the middle east and how we the taxpayers are subsidizing it. when i read the book i was flabergasted at how they screwed society without society even knowing. READ THE BOOK it will make you cringe. we should have had methane distribution 10 years ago for fuel cell cars except big oil came up with some bogus excuse to require pressurized tanks and another fuel source as an obstacle.

[sand fungus]

My bet is that hydrogen is as viable and probably more realistic for heavy trucks. Toyota sells a hydrogen powered car in California and they already have a hydrogen powered truck running in the port of LA on trials. So it is as viable for trucks as Tesla Electric trucks. It takes 15 minutes to refuel that truck... It is really about the infrastructure. There is no hydrogen infrastructure, and making all trucks electric will require a huge infrastructure investment for electricity. If we assume one truck will use 500kWh per day if you multiply that by 100,000 trucks that is 50,000mWh. California capacity is only 70,000mwh with average demand of ~25,000mWh so if all those truck plug in at the same time total brown out... Then across the US There are 2.8M trucks in the US...

[alancw3]

[QUOTE=SoCalSteve;2264693]Very Bernie Madoff.

you may have had it right:

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/18/16671478/tesla-semi-truck-roadster-2017-model-3-production

[Ti Designs]

"Slow cars driven fast are always more fun than fast cars driven slow."

Well, there is that...

I have to question the need for ultra performance cars on the steet (this from a guy who has used NOS on his commute and is looking at an Ariel Atom as his next car) I just converted my car from autocross car to winter car, so the wide sticky tires got replaced with narrow snow tires, the boost is limited to 2 PSI and both cam and ignition timing have been tuned for low end throttle response. I've also have the links to the rear sway bar controlled by engine vacuum, so she has understeer off throttle ('cause the race car is a little tail happy). The difference in times of my commute to work between the race car and the winter car is zero. I'm feeling a little cheated...

[verticaldoug]

Tesla is definitively making interesting and fun cars, but whether they can get scale and make it profitably is still a question mark.

I think the limiting factor for full electric cars will not be the grid, but cobalt in the batteries. 50% of the world's cobalt comes from the DRC. A large amount comes from 3 mines- Mukundo owned by ENRC, Katanga owned by Glencore and Tenke which was recently sold by Freeport to the chinese.

Currently world production can supply maybe 6mm cars per year. (Current global production is 92mm cars per year). This explains why no miner was willing to supply Volkswagen when they tendered for a 5 yr supply of cobalt. And this ignores all the other batteries and uses for the metal. This also explains the price performance of the metal this year.

You can probably change percentage of cobalt in the battery slightly will maintain enough battery performance, but can you replace Cobalt altogether? If not, Houston, we have problem.

[RoadWhale]

Well, there is that...

I have to question the need for ultra performance cars on the steet (this from a guy who has used NOS on his commute and is looking at an Ariel Atom as his next car) I just converted my car from autocross car to winter car, so the wide sticky tires got replaced with narrow snow tires, the boost is limited to 2 PSI and both cam and ignition timing have been tuned for low end throttle response. I've also have the links to the rear sway bar controlled by engine vacuum, so she has understeer off throttle ('cause the race car is a little tail happy). The difference in times of my commute to work between the race car and the winter car is zero. I'm feeling a little cheated...

I like the way you commute!