Hurricane Irma thread - (renamed)

[gregblow]

Irma is heading right for us. No riding out on A1A on Sunday. This one looks like it's for real. If you live down her in South Florida, stay safe and good luck!

[MattTuck]

This storm is a killer. Get out of there if you can. Harvey was bad because of the shear amount of water falling, and collecting in flood prone areas.

Irma is going to cause structural damage beyond anything in recent history. Based on what I'm reading, people are going to be talking about this one like we in New England talk about the Hurricane of 1938.

[Gsinill]

Just came across this, shows how big that thing really is.
HOLY COW!
Stay safe everybody down there!

http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-1185589-galleryV9-dpdj-1185589.jpg

[makoti]

There are THREE huge storms in that picture. Yikes.

[Louis]

I don't want to make light of a deadly serious situation, but I do have to wonder what it would be like to try to ride with an 185 mph tail wind.

Assuming the bike hardware could take the speed, at that speed the turbulence would most certainly be too much to handle since your lateral stability would not be very good. I would be willing to try in, say, a 75 mph tailwind. I know that many of my wheels have been up to 55 mph for very short periods in the steep downhill leading out of my subdivision, (my pb gravity assisted speed) but I don't know how long the hub bearings could stand it.

[Veloo]

My customer told me that his friend is stuck in Florida cuz they've run out of gas in the surrounding stations.

[oldpotatoe]

There are THREE huge storms in that picture. Yikes.

Jose and Katia...one in southern Gulf of Mexico, another that 'may' follow track of Irma...ugly season. Mother Nature is upset. :help:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/trio-westward-bound-hurricanes-churning-atlantic-ocean/story?id=49664598

[binxnyrwarrsoul]

Mother Nature is upset.

That is an understatement.

[Ralph]

I live about 200 miles N of Miami, on NE side of Orlando. We know we will get some damage. Even if it stays off the coast.....pools screens and roof tiles at risk. If one tile comes off up the street, it becomes a missiles, hitting next house, and two tiles come off, and so forth, then you have all these projectiles of roof material, pool screen material, garbage cans, and tree limbs and anything else the wind can grab, flying up and down the streets. it gets dangerous out there.

One can still find gasoline if you don't mind sitting in a line, but too late to get much at the grocery store or HD. Roads already clogged going N as everyone flees the low country of GA and SC, so time to hunker down, and do some bike maintenance on our fleet.

[AngryScientist]

as ralph describes, once you get beyond pretty basic preparation, it mostly boils down to luck.

wishing all of you folks down there the best of luck, stay safe!

[paredown]

Stay safe!

I hate frickin' hurricanes. We only got the edges of Sandy, and lost a bunch of mature trees (house was spared, thank goodness)--but it was nerve-wracking, sitting in the house with the wind howling and trees snapping off that sounded like explosions. Irene was like a big storm so not so bad.

We went through a big one, Freda (typhoon) when I was kid in Vancouver--another one of those 'storm of the century' deals--being a kid, after getting over the initial excitement we just went to sleep down in the basement with the parents. Got up the next morning and could not believe the damage--all those shallow rooted west coast trees had come down like ninepins, shopping mall windows were all blown out, power was out for days. Of course, being kids we thought that was all pretty cool. Years later I worked for a construction materials company that manufactured roofing, and to make conversation one day I asked about Freda. They could not get the roofing out to dealers fast enough so they set up the back parking lot, and were selling roofing right out of the warehouse--and it went on for weeks...

[batman1425]

Nature has powerful ways to restore balance

[572cv]

There are THREE huge storms in that picture. Yikes.

Four.... I think that is a massive storm down near Antarctica. Hope all the forumites in FL are ready, your persons (and your bikes) in safe places.

BTW, the best App that we have found for wind/weather is called "Windy". Very nice graphic presentation.

[fignon's barber]

I'm in the Tampa/Clearwater area. The waiting is the toughest part. Beautiful day today, though. I'll get out for a couple hours on the bike.

[tiretrax]

This is a crazy, scary storm season. As far as size, Hurricane Ike's (2008) system filled the entire Gulf. It was Cat 5 at sea but down to Cat 1 when it made landfall. Still, its storm surge wiped out 4,000 of the 6,000 structures on the Bolivar Peninsula of Galveston County.

Irma is likely to pick up a huge amount of moisture from the Gulf/Atlantic in additional to having a good sized surge, so Floridians, Georgians, and South Carolinians should prepare for flooding. Miami has had enough troubles with rising sea levels and subsidence. With all the new construction, Irma is likely to have a toll in the 10s of billions on that area if it's struck by the NE side of the storm, as currently predicted.

After a big hurricane, the people that survived trying to ride it out often say it's the stupidest thing they've done in their life. If you live in the storm's path, head for higher ground or seek out a storm shelter. Houses can be rebuilt and possessions can be replaced; lives can't.

[torquer]

That Chinese hoax just keeps getting more and more elaborate.

[gasman]

Just came across this, shows how big that thing really is.
HOLY COW!
Stay safe everybody down there!

http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-1185589-galleryV9-dpdj-1185589.jpg


Amazing photo-

Where did you pull it from ? NASA ? NOAA ?

[MattTuck]

Amazing photo-

Where did you pull it from ? NASA ? NOAA ?

Not sure if this is stating the obvious, but this is not a photo. Rather, it is a composite graphic generated from satellite images.

If you were just using 'photo' colloquially to mean 'image', sorry to be pedantic.

[Gsinill]

Amazing photo-

Where did you pull it from ? NASA ? NOAA ?

It was on spiegel.de (German magazine), the picture... oops image ;) is from a NOAA satellite called GOES 16.

Ps. Let's hope the Europeans (https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/) have it wrong!!!

[PQJ]

That Chinese hoax just keeps getting more and more elaborate.

They sure do know how to trump us yankees! :eek:

[cloudguy]

They sure do know how to trump us yankees! :eek:

A not insignificant fraction of our population would seem to agree with you...:eek:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/09/07/the-energy-202-why-climate-change-deniers-mistrust-hurricane-forecasts-too/59b032be30fb04264c2a1d13/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_energy-202-11am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.33cd0e46e821

[gasman]

Not sure if this is stating the obvious, but this is not a photo. Rather, it is a composite graphic generated from satellite images.

If you were just using 'photo' colloquially to mean 'image', sorry to be pedantic.

I understand that but was wondering where he got it.

It's very cool.

Yes, I hope the European model is wrong and that it moves further East. Either way it's a monster.

[vqdriver]

nature + man = nature

don't mess

[azrider]

They sure do know how to trump us yankees! :eek:

A not insignificant fraction of our population would seem to agree with you...:eek:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/09/07/the-energy-202-why-climate-change-deniers-mistrust-hurricane-forecasts-too/59b032be30fb04264c2a1d13/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_energy-202-11am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.33cd0e46e821

takes a real 'special' kind of person to turn what's about to happen to Florida into a political discussion. :rolleyes:

[BobO]

Yes, I hope the European model is wrong and that it moves further East. Either way it's a monster.

The Euro model is showing this thing raking most of the north coast of Cuba. That might be pretty bad, hopefully not.

[jimcav]

takes a real 'special' kind of person to turn what's about to happen to Florida into a political discussion. :rolleyes:

I wasn't aware some pundits are advising folks to not trust forecasts, which would thus delay prep/leaving= increased risk to life and limb. That is terrible. Like it or not, the preparedness for these things does depend on politics, since the budgets for preparedness at the local, state, and federal level are all dependent on politics, and if disregard for science and climate change is part of the politics, then it certainly affects what we all hope for, which is that everything possible is done to ensure the health and safety of those in harm's way.

[steveoz]

Well I'm right smack in it's path here in S Fla - but- since the winds rotate directions as it passes I should be able to plan my ride so I have a helluva tailwind both ways!

[54ny77]

lotta pinellas low lying areas mandatory evacuation friday a.m., fyi.

(have friends/family down there.)

[Cicli]

takes a real 'special' kind of person to turn what's about to happen to Florida into a political discussion. :rolleyes:

Some cant help it.

[jimcav]

Well I'm right smack in it's path here in S Fla - but- since the winds rotate directions as it passes I should be able to plan my ride so I have a helluva tailwind both ways!

I know that you were likely being tongue-in-cheek, but i went for a run when isabelle hit the DC area many years ago--just a big storm by then but a very large branch came down 15 feet from me--and i headed back home, was foolish to even go out, but i was training for something and thought that was important. Stay safe all.

[PQJ]

takes a real 'special' kind of person to turn what's about to happen to Florida into a political discussion. :rolleyes:

I'm not going to go 'there' other than to say (i) it's a current issue, (ii) presumably, this is a place where some degree of levity and lightheartedness is both welcomed and tolerated, (iii) I feel doubly punctured by your selective inclusion of only certain 'offenders' and (iv) I won't be casting any aspersions your way solely on account of the fact that we might disagree with respect to a particular topic. Have a nice day.

[gasman]

Let's keep on topic or is that off topic ?

It's a bad storm that is going affect a lot more people than it has already. Having worked medical missions in Haiti I know that country has little ability to take even a glancing blow to the northern part of the island.

If Miami takes a direct hit it's going to have a huge impact.

[BobO]

It's a bad storm that is going affect a lot more people than it has already. Having worked medical missions in Haiti I know that country has little ability to take even a glancing blow to the northern part of the island.

If Miami takes a direct hit it's going to have a huge impact.


https://www.windy.com/?gfs,24.367,-76.520,6

Fortunately it looks like Haiti is going to be spared the worst of it.

Savannah may not fare so well;
https://www.windy.com/?gfs,2017-09-11-18,30.902,-83.661,6

[54ny77]

Savannah could get worked over really hard if the river floods.

I have family near the Ogeechee which isn't far away and they're heading out. They're just off the banks of it and no way sticking around to find out what a 3' surge would do.


https://www.windy.com/?gfs,24.367,-76.520,6

Fortunately it looks like Haiti is going to be spared the worst of it.

Savannah may not fare so well;
https://www.windy.com/?gfs,2017-09-11-18,30.902,-83.661,6

[gasman]

[QUOTE=BobO;2230637]https://www.windy.com/?gfs,24.367,-76.520,6

Fortunately it looks like Haiti is going to be spared the worst of it.



Thanks for that. They still have little ability to deal with the flooding that will occur.

[makoti]

Well I'm right smack in it's path here in S Fla - but- since the winds rotate directions as it passes I should be able to plan my ride so I have a helluva tailwind both ways!

Man, if you mess up the timing on this, that's a nasty headwind!

[Ralph]

I'm about 200 miles N of Miami....(NE of Orlando) and we don't know where the storm is going yet. But people are panicking. Grocery stores are cleaned out, and there is no gas around. People just go nuts.....and even if storm comes this way....it's about 3 days out for us. People buy all this water....and yet even though I have been thru a lot of power loss times thru the years with storms, have never lost water. We don't flood around here. Faucets still work. Pool has 18000 gallons clean water in it. Neighbors the same. Will ride Saturday probably. At least wife laid in a good supply of beer.

[jimcav]

I'm about 200 miles N of Miami....(NE of Orlando) and we don't know where the storm is going yet. But people are panicking. Grocery stores are cleaned out, and there is no gas around. People just go nuts.....and even if storm comes this way....it's about 3 days out for us. People buy all this water....and yet even though I have been thru a lot of power loss times thru the years with storms, have never lost water. We don't flood around here. Faucets still work. Pool has 18000 gallons clean water in it. Neighbors the same. Will ride Saturday probably. At least wife laid in a good supply of beer.

seems overlooked in prep--I think I'd have a life straw or something similar if I lived in an area subject to flooding or other cause where water supply pumps could get knocked out. and a camping solar shower, 'cause who wants to deal with cold showers.

[batman1425]

seems overlooked in prep--I think I'd have a life straw or something similar if I lived in an area subject to flooding or other cause where water supply pumps could get knocked out. and a camping solar shower, 'cause who wants to deal with cold showers.

We keep a life straw a couple dehydrated meals, crank powered radio and a handful other things in our emergency kits in each of the cars. We also have more sophisticated water purification setups stored at the house that we use when camping and backpacking. Could always bust those out and the propane stove if things really got desperate. Though for us, a long term fend for yourself situation would likely be from a blizzard or ice storm which carries a different set of problems to mitigate.

We have friends in the FL/MIA area. By chance, they had planned a several week trip to PA and will miss all of it. Crazy lucky.

[bikinchris]

This storm is a killer. Get out of there if you can. Harvey was bad because of the shear amount of water falling, and collecting in flood prone areas.

Irma is going to cause structural damage beyond anything in recent history. Based on what I'm reading, people are going to be talking about this one like we in New England talk about the Hurricane of 1938.

Once again, the wind gets the headlines and the water is what's going to kill people.
The storm surge and possible high tide could put everything under 20 feet of water, not counting waves.

[MaraudingWalrus]

It's spooky. We're on the space coast of FL. Bugging out tomorrow morning with my parents (50s/60s), three grandparents (85+) with varying levels of alzheimer's and general old people-ness, and my mentally handicapped aunt and uncle. I can't even imagine how disorienting and scary this is for my grandmother with alzheimer's.


I topped up with gas at about 8pm this evening, no line or anything at any of the gas stations on the barrier island. Publix this afternoon was out of almost everything bread-like besides some random bagels. Grabbed a couple packages of plain bagels and some peanut butter to add to our boxes of stuff we're taking.

No plain water at all. Some sparkling water - maybe like five cases. Some vitamin water, tons of sodas, not much gatorade/powerade.

We're only going as far as Orlando, which looks like it will still get potentially devastating wind, but at least won't get the 1-3 meters of swell in the intracoastal waterway that was projected as of the 5pm update according to the local papers. That puts about 1-2 meters of water in my parents' house, similar amounts in my grandparents' place and in the bike shop at which I work.

I was fully mentally expecting during hurricane Matthew last year to have no house, no job, and my car which we had to leave behind all destroyed. Was lucky then, who knows this time.

I know there are other paceliners here on the spacecoast, as well as other parts of florida..hopefully everyone is as prepared as they can be, and is able to get outta dodge and to somewhere with relative safety.

[steveoz]

Man, if you mess up the timing on this, that's a nasty headwind!

that's what sag support is for!

[Ronsonic]

Here in Tampa we're getting ready and mostly holding tight. Some areas on the coast are going to be evacuated. We've been lucky on wind and flood control is actually good in this region.

If no trees land on the house Sonic-Wife and I will be okay and we've plans B and C if we aren't.

[LJohnny]

Here in Tampa we're getting ready and mostly holding tight. Some areas on the coast are going to be evacuated. We've been lucky on wind and flood control is actually good in this region.

If no trees land on the house Sonic-Wife and I will be okay and we've plans B and C if we aren't.

My in-laws are up in NC as of today, from Tampa. It seems that the course has Irma going right through that area as of now. Hard to know the wind damage once it goes inland. Rain may be the big problem.

Good luck!

[AngryScientist]

threads merged and renamed to keep the discussion centralized.

[AngryScientist]

i'm sincerely wishing the best for our Paceline pals down in the path of Irma.

Stay safe folks, do what you know is the best thing for you and your families.

Sometimes it's hard to get it to the forefront of our consciousness, but we all know bikes and heirlooms and stuff are all second tier priorities compared to the safety and health of souls.

be safe, check in here when you can.

[bikinchris]

You people bugging out are smart. Unless they get the track wrong, there will be a long period after it passes where there will be a low quality of life. No good water, electricity, gasoline, services etc. Get out and wait it out a while before coming back.

[Elefantino]

Heading back to Jax next Thursday for long weekend. Outdoor wedding. Probably doing some cleanup.

Then Cuba at the end of the month. Hoping Havana and environs are spared the worst.

Hunker down, Florida. (Yes, I know that is a Georgia thing.) Hoping for the best for all of you!

[ojingoh]

BTW, the best App that we have found for wind/weather is called "Windy". Very nice graphic presentation.
I love astronomy, it's a real passion of mine. Upper atmosphere winds, especially the jet stream, have a huge role in seeing night sky objects.

This site is great for visualizing winds: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-79.60,21.00,3000

[Llewellyn]

Hopefully people will also spare a thought for the people who've already suffered in the Carribean and who are less well-equipped to deal with the aftermath. Stay safe everyone, wherever you are.

[Elefantino]

My neighbor said his mother just lost her house in Oregon due to wildfire.

Disaster everywhere.

[Louis]

Disaster everywhere.

And the expected human response:

http://i.imgur.com/RnaXWVg.jpg

[BdaGhisallo]

I love astronomy, it's a real passion of mine. Upper atmosphere winds, especially the jet stream, have a huge role in seeing night sky objects.

This site is great for visualizing winds: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-79.60,21.00,3000


Windy.com is another great sight for wind and other meteo visualizations.

[William]

Yeah Irma...in your face!!!

https://i2.wp.com/media1.giphy.com/media/v0eSTlR8GEWJi/giphy.gif



Seriously though, I hope all our forum buds and their families get through this safely.







William

[C50]

Currently sitting on a plane at Tampa International Airport. I thought I was lucky in that I already had plans to fly out this morning long before Irma. We prepared just in case, now the plane is broken and we are sitting at the gate. Still hoping to get out but at a certain point I hope they say this plane isn't going and I can get off and get home in time to settle in for an intense few days. Last place I want to be is sitting on a plane on the tarmac that sits at an elevation of about 6 feet and at the very edge of the water. Fingers and everything else crossed at this point!

[YesNdeed]

My customer told me that his friend is stuck in Florida cuz they've run out of gas in the surrounding stations.

That's the same my father found, he's in Naples. He checked around for a more secure shelter, but everything is full. He's sitting tight where he is. I hope everyone we all know remains in the safest place possible for tonight, and especially tomorrow. The Weatherbug app has a good real-time view of the storm.

[Ronsonic]

We still here in Tampa are ready. The high school parking lot 5 blocks away is a staging area full of city work trucks, garbage trucks, bucket trucks and heavy equipment, the house and goods are secured in a low flood risk location. Bunches of ice reinforcing two chest freezers now with lots of pre-cooked, no-cook and easy-cook foods. Two propane tanks for the grill and camp stove, percolator coffee pot on standby. There are two alternative locations with family and friends we can get to if this really gets ugly. At worst, we are camping in doors next week.

Prayers to those less well situated.

[gasman]

Heck prayers to all of you.

[mnoble485]

We still here in Tampa are ready. The high school parking lot 5 blocks away is a staging area full of city work trucks, garbage trucks, bucket trucks and heavy equipment, the house and goods are secured in a low flood risk location. Bunches of ice reinforcing two chest freezers now with lots of pre-cooked, no-cook and easy-cook foods. Two propane tanks for the grill and camp stove, percolator coffee pot on standby. There are two alternative locations with family and friends we can get to if this really gets ugly. At worst, we are camping in doors next week.

Prayers to those less well situated.

Ronsonic,
I'm in the New Tampa area. The waiting is the sucky part. How much CNN, NBC etc. can anyone watch. I've also got ice, propane and and and...good luck tonight and tomorrow to you and others in the area.

Mike
.

[maxcolumbus]

Hunkered down in Vero Beach. Lots of tornado activity from last night through
early this morning. Be safe peeps.

[fignon's barber]

Ronsonic,
I'm in the New Tampa area. The waiting is the sucky part. How much CNN, NBC etc. can anyone watch. I've also got ice, propane and and and...good luck tonight and tomorrow to you and others in the area.

Mike
.

I'm in tarpon springs. We have decent elevation, but we were evacuated yesterday. Grabbed some clothes, and left thinking we may have nothing when we return. Honestly, I can care less about my bikes, I just want my home and the community to still be there

[YesNdeed]

It looks like the worst is over for Naples and South. My Father's place was minimally damaged, and flooding hasn't reached the ground floor, although the street is flooded by foot or two. No power. Big relief. I hope everyone is hanging in there in points North.

[chuckroast]

I'm in Spring Hill (north of Tampa) and knock on wood, everything is still on. Looks like the storm shot its wad in the Keys, Naples and Ft. Meyers because it appears to be rapidly weakening. Might be a Cat 1 by the time it gets here.

[54ny77]

Good luck to all.

[weisan]

I don't want to make light of a deadly serious situation, but I do have to wonder what it would be like to try to ride with an 185 mph tail wind.

Assuming the bike hardware could take the speed, at that speed the turbulence would most certainly be too much to handle since your lateral stability would not be very good. I would be willing to try in, say, a 75 mph tailwind. I know that many of my wheels have been up to 55 mph for very short periods in the steep downhill leading out of my subdivision, (my pb gravity assisted speed) but I don't know how long the hub bearings could stand it.

http://www.steephill.tv/players/720/twitter/?title=RIDING+out+Hurricane+Irma+in+Miami+Beach,+F lorida&dashboard=&id=stostevin/status/906912756963663874&yr=2017

[Ronsonic]

Ronsonic,
I'm in the New Tampa area. The waiting is the sucky part. How much CNN, NBC etc. can anyone watch. I've also got ice, propane and and and...good luck tonight and tomorrow to you and others in the area.

Mike
.

Hi Mike, yep, the long, dragging wait for that thing was wretched. No TV news for me, I was online watching NOAA stuff. Then lost internets and that's when the TV came on. I just got back on line about 20 minutes ago, so of course I had to come here after checking my email.

Other than the info-pipe breaking we suffered nothing that a rake and some yard work couldn't fix. So many people around here are without electricity and I was about to go take my mom over when they got her area rewired.

How'd you guys north of here do?

[chuckroast]

We got power back today, the outage was about 36 hours. No damage other than branches and palm fronds in the yard. All and all a relief over what had been forecasted.

[zmudshark]

Heading to my dad's in St Marys GA tomorrow. He is a WWII vet, and still thinks he can do anything. I was planning on a trip to make his DVD player work and take all the stuff off his computer that he has no idea how it got there.

His house looks okay, but there are some big looking branches on the roof, and a lot of Georgia pine on the ground.

Glad I had the trip planned ahead of time and can help him out for once, instead of the other way around.

Stay safe Paceliners in all the storm areas.

[Keith A]

We ended not getting a direct hit from Irma, but she slapped us pretty good. Nearly 90% initially were without power in my county. We still have no power, cable or internet, and I just got cellular data this evening. We have a limb laying on our power line and we don't know when this will be fixed. We also have some water intrusion in our bedroom, soffit and facia damage, and debris everywhere. Schools are closed until next week, long lines at the few open gas stations. It's going to take a while for our community to recover from this, but I'm thankful for it not being worse, as I'm sure the folks on the west coast have it much worse.

[mnoble485]

Two sections of fence and some yard debris is total of our damage. Power stayed on the entire time!! I think we really got of lucky compared to other areas.
Mike

[shovelhd]

One of the schools my wife works for in Jacksonville was flooded and has no power. They expect to be shut down for at least the rest of the week.

[Keith A]

Just discovered the roof leaked at my office :(

[YesNdeed]

Can anyone tell me if the Naples area/Collier county is still without power?

[jr59]

One of the schools my wife works for in Jacksonville was flooded and has no power. They expect to be shut down for at least the rest of the week.

Most of the schools are like that here. I just got power and wi-fi. Glad to take a hot shower

[oldguy00]

Hey folks, anyone in the Longwood area? Was it hit badly? Enough to cause damage to houses, etc?