WaPo Article w Stats on Cycling Deaths

[Jgrooms]

Bike riding isn’t child’s play anymore, and cycling crash deaths are soaring - The Washington Post
https://apple.news/AN_p8u2zxQ6euawgHMQY4Fg






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[cmg]

"In all three cases, the driver involved kept going, which is not uncommon in collisions between cars and bicyclists." That one didn't seem to alarm the reporter.

[Mark McM]

Bike riding isn’t child’s play anymore, and cycling crash deaths are soaring

Well, that quote is a bit of sensationalism.

No, cycling deaths are not soaring. That is gross misread of the statistics. Cycling deaths have always been a relatively small number, and as such is subject to localized fluctuations in the data. If we can describe an increase from 723 (2014) to 817 (2015) as "soaring", then we have to also describe the decrease from 716 (2008) to 628 (2009) as "plummeting". Overall, there has been a distinct downward trend in cycling deaths for the last 40 years (1003 in 1975, compared to 817 in 2015 - a 20% decrease).

While there has been an overall decline in cycling deaths, another trend that has emerged is an increase in average age of cyclists in fatal accidents. Interestingly, this trend is also present trend for motocycles - the average age for motorcycle fatalities is moving upward, and was 42 in 2015 - up from 38 in 2004.

(Source of data: http://www.iihs.org/iihs)

[weiwentg]

Well, that quote is a bit of sensationalism.

No, cycling deaths are not soaring. That is gross misread of the statistics. Cycling deaths have always been a relatively small number, and as such is subject to localized fluctuations in the data. If we can describe an increase from 723 (2014) to 817 (2015) as "soaring", then we have to also describe the decrease from 716 (2008) to 628 (2009) as "plummeting". Overall, there has been a distinct downward trend in cycling deaths for the last 40 years (1003 in 1975, compared to 817 in 2015 - a 20% decrease).

While there has been an overall decline in cycling deaths, another trend that has emerged is an increase in average age of cyclists in fatal accidents. Interestingly, this trend is also present trend for motocycles - the average age for motorcycle fatalities is moving upward, and was 42 in 2015 - up from 38 in 2004.

(Source of data: http://www.iihs.org/iihs)

Also, you'd want to consider the rate, not just number, of deaths. If we have more cycling deaths because more people are cycling, that's inevitable - not saying it's good, but we actually want more people cycling. If we have more cycling deaths per trip or per mile traveled, that's bad. But we don't know what the case is from the article.

Also, the article says half of the cases involved a cyclist not wearing a helmet - red herring.

[Mark McM]

Also, the article says half of the cases involved a cyclist not wearing a helmet - red herring.

They could also have reported that the number of cyclists who died with a blood alcohol concentration greater than 0.08% increased by 9.5% from 2014 to 2015.

(http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/pedestrians-and-bicyclists/fatalityfacts/bicycles)

[dddd]

I've personally passed by the scene of a couple of possible cycling deaths where it appeared that a low-wage foreign worker was hit by a car while likely returning from work late at night.

In both cases a helmetless rider with no visibility aids simply passed the wrong intersection at the wrong time, getting hit by a car that never saw them until it was too late.

So any increase in such "workday" conditions or increase in urban traffic would alone affect the numbers of deaths.

[daker13]

Going from the info graphs alone, the one that really plummeted is deaths of young people 20 and under: in the 40 years to 2015, from 786 a year to 91. (Deaths of cyclists over 20 increases from 212 to 720.)

I wonder how much of that young cyclist mortality number has to do with increased helmet use.. or, less young people riding bikes at all?

[torquer]

"I wonder how much of that young cyclist mortality number has to do with increased helmet use.. or, less young people riding bikes at all?"
That number is surely the result of both, but I bet that less riding contributes more than helmet use.
All of these raw numbers are pretty useless; what matters is the rate of deaths (per mile, or whatever.) That would really tell us whether cycling is getting more or less dangerous.

[vqdriver]

statistics are great and i'm glad people here can lend some perspective to those numbers. but i'm more concerned with the seemingly 'soaring' incidents of hit and run accidents and distracted driving. no matter an accident or not, i just canNOT get my head around anyone leaving someone to die on the side of the road.

[classtimesailer]

I predict that cycling trips by potential cyclists who read the WaPo will decrease significantly. That will lead to less encroachment by cycling infrastructure.

I'm starting to understand the concept of fake news.

[Mark McM]

Going from the info graphs alone, the one that really plummeted is deaths of young people 20 and under: in the 40 years to 2015, from 786 a year to 91. (Deaths of cyclists over 20 increases from 212 to 720.)

I wonder how much of that young cyclist mortality number has to do with increased helmet use.. or, less young people riding bikes at all?

I suspect that change is mostly due to participation rates - in 1975, bicycles were considered children's toys, and few adults rode regularly. 40 years later, fewer children ride, but many more adults have picked up cycling. When I'm out on the roads (either riding or driving), I see far more adults on bicycles than children. And very rarely do I see a teenager on a bike.

Another interesting thing in the statistics is time of day - 53% of cycling fatailities in 2015 occurred between the hours of 6pm and 6am (i.e. the hours of darkness). And, as noted previously, about 1/4 of all cyclists who died were legally drunk at the time.

[RonW87]

I suspect that change is mostly due to participation rates - in 1975, bicycles were considered children's toys, and few adults rode regularly.

This is sort of true, sort of not. 1975 was just after the end of the bike boom. To the extent they were considered children's toys, it's because they went out of style for adults:

"US bicycle sales, which had been rolling along at 6 million a year, shot up to 9 million in 1971, 14 million in 1972 and 15.3 million the following year, according to a Bank of America report. While most pre-boom bikes had been sold for children, suddenly 60% were destined for adults...

Even LA had a programme – part of the Los Angeles County General Plan – to crisscross the county with a 1,500-mile network of bikeways. It was ambitious, but too late.

The LA County plan was published in 1975, the year fashions changed and the boom imploded. The bike had turned out to be the hula hoop of the 1970s: all the rage one minute, all but forgotten the next.

Bike sales in the US fell by half within months.

...
Bike shop lines thinned out to nothing. Bicycle manufacturers cancelled overseas orders.

In the words of the chairman of the Bicycle Manufacturing Association of America to a Senate committee in 1976: “The boom has turned into a bust.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/jun/16/pedal-ins-patchouli-bikeology-americas-forgotten-1970s-cycle-boom

[unterhausen]

when I was 8, i would ride miles across town to visit my friends and to go to little league practice. Parents would be arrested for that nowadays.