OT: For the investors here.

[MattTuck]

Just some food for thought.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/03/20170104_notcheap.jpg

[echappist]

which of the various P/E ratios do you feel is most "correct?" The Shiller PE (10 yr avg, i believe), is at its third highest (higher than 2008 and below only 2000 dot-com boom and 1929)

[ctcyclistbob]

Maybe, hopefully, this time companies can grow earnings which will bring the P/E ratio down.

[RC.]

The market is definitely overvalued...that's a given. Trying to find a suitable stock to invest in for long term dividend investing is almost impossible as most stocks don't get past my P/E screener.

[93legendti]

Cashing out?

[sparky33]

P/E is high. Though I've read that folks see the next administration promoting strong dollar policies across the board, and investors are factoring that into their valuations.

That said, your graph is still unsettling.

[MattTuck]

which of the various P/E ratios do you feel is most "correct?" The Shiller PE (10 yr avg, i believe), is at its third highest (higher than 2008 and below only 2000 dot-com boom and 1929)

I'm sure there are esoteric differences in the way you calculate the underlying terms, and then which terms you choose for the ratio, that would address different considerations (cash flow vs. GAAP earnings, for instance), but the big picture is just the basic idea of looking at some ratio of what you pay, and what you get for that price.

[Louis]

Trump won't let the market crash.

Edit - More seriously:

Matt, I didn't realize that there were any chartists (the modern day variety) in academia. ;)

[Louis]

Also, I bet we're in for a massive increase in earnings in the very near future...

[MattTuck]

Trump won't let the market crash.

Edit - More seriously:

Matt, I didn't realize that there were any chartists (the modern day variety) in academia. ;)

Shhhh, don't tell anyone! ;)

Yeah, I'm not saying to buy or sell, just providing a little context/perspective.

[Ralph]

I have taken some profits recently. I learned a long time ago......you might leave some on the table......but it never hurts to take some profits at times like this....and have cash available. I think markets priced for stuff Trump can't get done.

Besides.....the investor who bought my shares needs a chance to make a profit.....otherwise....he wouldn't have been there to buy some of my shares. LOL

[572cv]

Perhaps instability in the world overall has helped keep global investors in the US markets. It's a better bet than other places, at least for the fleeting moment.

[joosttx]

Tick, tick, tick....

[adub]

The US markets are akin to the best house in a bad neighborhood.

[scho74]

Is anyone playing gold as a hedge?

[Louis]

Is anyone playing gold as a hedge?

I'm 99.9999% sure that I'd loose way more money than I'd save compared to just riding it out if I tried to do something fancy like this.

In my case it would be Definition #1, not #2

spec·u·la·tion
noun: speculation; plural noun: speculations

1. the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
"there has been widespread speculation that he plans to quit"

2. investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss. "The company's move into property speculation"

[zzy]

Funny how those marks also coincide with presidential transitions..

[1centaur]

Central bankers used to choose: dollar, or gold. The world is changing, but there is still residual influence, so if the dollar is strong, which is the consensus forecast, there is at least a headwind to gold.

[ColonelJLloyd]

Funny how those marks also coincide with presidential transitions..

I only see one. Is my history or math that bad?

[verticaldoug]

TOP U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS SAY RUSSIANS INVOLVED IN TODAY'S UNNECESSARY SELLING OF STOCKS. POSSIBLE ACT OF WAR.

Saw this on twitter, it must be true.
:D:D


Stalingrad & Poorski ‏@Stalingrad_Poor 1h1 hour ago

TOP U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS SAY RUSSIANS INVOLVED IN TODAY'S UNNECESSARY SELLING OF STOCKS. POSSIBLE ACT OF WAR.
12 replies 115 retweets 150 likes

[zzy]

I only see one. Is my history or math that bad?

The first mark in '91 (Japanese asset crash) precedes Clinton by a year, but the market began taking off shortly after his election. The second is in 2000, but the market begins to plummet immediately prior to Bush assuming office. The third coincides almost exactly with Obama. The fourth coincides exactly with the Trump electoral victory. The x axis of the graph is slightly off and should read 2015-2018 in the final segment. Still, we'll see if the DJ can take a run at 20000 and where the chart goes from here but it's hard to not suspect we're in bubble. Obviously the presidency doesn't determine the market but the alignment of the two is remarkable.

[batman1425]

The first mark in '91 (Japanese asset crash) precedes Clinton by a year, but the market began taking off shortly after his election. The second is in 2000, but the market begins to plummet immediately prior to Bush assuming office. The third coincides almost exactly with Obama. The fourth coincides exactly with the Trump electoral victory. The x axis of the graph is slightly off and should read 2015-2018 in the final segment. Still, we'll see if the DJ can take a run at 20000 and where the chart goes from here but it's hard to not suspect we're in bubble. Obviously the presidency doesn't determine the market but the alignment of the two is remarkable.

If DJT doesn't stop using twitter to influence the actions of major corporations (Ford, Boeing, and MD are good recent examples) we may see more direct impacts of a presidency on markets during this administration than is typical (excluding the federal bailouts in the early-mid 2000's).

[ColonelJLloyd]

The first mark in '91 (Japanese asset crash) precedes Clinton by a year, but the market began taking off shortly after his election. The second is in 2000, but the market begins to plummet immediately prior to Bush assuming office. The third coincides almost exactly with Obama. The fourth coincides exactly with the Trump electoral victory. The x axis of the graph is slightly off and should read 2015-2018 in the final segment. Still, we'll see if the DJ can take a run at 20000 and where the chart goes from here but it's hard to not suspect we're in bubble. Obviously the presidency doesn't determine the market but the alignment of the two is remarkable.
Do the circled dates not line up this way?

Middle of G.H.W. Bush term (precedes Clinton by two years)
One year prior to G.W. Bush first term
One year prior to Obama first term
~Obama/Trump transition

Just curious what point you were trying to make.


Presidential transitions. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration#List_of_in augural_ceremonies)

[spiderwj]

I've been saying the market is about to crash for a while now...for 3 years now...doh!


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