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Fat Robert
07-13-2006, 11:24 AM
rabo has the best team in the mountains but menchov doesn't look to be strong enough to drop landis

landis looks the strongest but has no team

levi is back, but too far down to be anything other than an ally

t-mobile has depth but no "finisher"

evans will follow the battle -- no team mates, no risk, no attacks.


its floyd vs. the rabo triumvirate for the next two weeks. everybody else is a spectator. its up to rabo to make the race...if menchov is up to it.

neither yeehaw nor i will get a cheesburger.

BdaGhisallo
07-13-2006, 11:25 AM
I guess we can finally dismiss those fanciful notions of Big George ever being a gc contender in the big tours. I guess one stage win does not a yellow jersey in Paris make.

Roy E. Munson
07-13-2006, 11:26 AM
.

Grant McLean
07-13-2006, 11:27 AM
What a great stage.

Rabo rode so agressively, that was cool to watch.
Should be great to see what happens from here.
Floyd can't afford a bad day, without the team to help.

g

Fat Robert
07-13-2006, 11:28 AM
but the trek poster of george as an angelic "saint" is cool












not

Fat Robert
07-13-2006, 11:30 AM
What a great stage.

Rabo rode so agressively, that was cool to watch.
Should be great to see what happens from here.
Floyd can't afford a bad day, without the team to help.

g

swoop called it

no one will win by attacking -- the strongest guys have no support and as a result won't take the risk, and menchov, although he has the support, doesn't look to have the punch. its going to come down to who just doesn't have a bad day.

of course, if everyone ends up with a bad day, now that will make it interesting....

max_powers
07-13-2006, 11:38 AM
Landis looks smooth, great stage.
Now recovery follow thru essential to defend time positions by top riders

toaster
07-13-2006, 11:41 AM
I don't see George Hincapie winning L'Alpe d'Huez on Tuesday which is what he'd have to do to be a player. Discovery is the history channel now. I expect Levi or Menchov or Cadel to go for it on L'Alpe d'Huez.

Grant McLean
07-13-2006, 11:43 AM
swoop called it

no one will win by attacking -- the strongest guys have no support and as a result won't take the risk, and menchov, although he has the support, doesn't look to have the punch. its going to come down to who just doesn't have a bad day.

of course, if everyone ends up with a bad day, now that will make it interesting....

my boy Klodi forgot that it's not ok to sit up 5k from the finish this year,
and roll the rest of the way...

I though Menchov looks mighty strong, plenty of punch, but it
looked to me that Floyd could care less about the stage, and had
lots in reserve.

g

saab2000
07-13-2006, 11:50 AM
Menchov looks very dangerous. He has a team and is strong. I think it will come down to seconds and then the final TT.

For me a question is whether or not Landis's hip injury is really affecting him or what that is all about. I still am not certain about the role of declaring it on the rest day.

Anyway, all three of the first guys looked to have lots in reserve today and were about equal. The others showed cracks.

Avispa
07-13-2006, 11:53 AM
Phew! This is the kind of Tour I dreamed on watching for more than 7 years!!!!

I said earlier:
http://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=228586&postcount=2

Doping aside, if I had to put my money on someone on this Tour, that would be the Floyd. And still think so...

I feel bad for De La Fuente, I hope he keeps the KOM jersey, however!

Rover-Rich
07-13-2006, 12:02 PM
[QUOTE=Avispa]
Doping aside, if I had to put my money on someone on this Tour, that would be the Floyd. And still think so...
/QUOTE]

You and me both. My man Floyd!!! Gotta love his determination even without a team to support him! :beer: :beer:

Grant McLean
07-13-2006, 12:03 PM
Phew! This is the kind of Tour I dreamed on watching for more than 7 years!!!!

Doping aside, if I had to put my money on someone on this Tour, that would be the Floyd. And still think so...


wow, you're really out there on a limb with that pick, eh? :) :)
You probally thought Armstrong was good for a 7th last year too. :) :)

I guess Rabo is really confident for Menchov to do the win, they totally
sacrificed Michael Rasmussen today. He finished over 11 minutes back.

It kinda looks bad on t-mobile strategy when their boy doesn't come through
at the finish with the goods. All that work for nothing.

g

goonster
07-13-2006, 12:45 PM
For me a question is whether or not Landis's hip injury is really affecting him or what that is all about.

Like Robbie Ventura said the other day . . .

It reduces his peak wattage, so he won't be winning any sprints, but he can still put down the power on these climbs. If it acts up it could also affect his recovery if he can't sleep through the night. In terms of him being a contender in this Tour, on the climbs and the TT, it shouldn't be too much of a factor.

I was rooting for Totschnig to stay with the lead group. Too bad. He never, ever gets mentioned on the coverage, unless he's winning a stage. He's getting a bit long in the tooth, but should be good for one big day in the Alps, as usual.

Big blow for CSC, losing Lombardi today, and thus being reduced to even more of a skeleton crew. Good job by Sastre and Schleck though. All of their troubles aside, Sastre really couldn't ask for more than to be 5th on GC, less than 2 min. down, at this point in the game.

Levi showed some cracks on one of the intermediate climbs, but he obviously came back strong, so I hope this is a sign of better things to come.

Phonak may not be a team to ride tempo with four guys all day, but I suspect that they can still come up with a little something when they need to.

Popovych, Hincapie, Savoldelli . . . wow. The great disappering act continues. OK, I never really expected anything from the latter two, but I did expect Popovych to at least hang with, say, Moreau.

Out of the GC top-10 I think Floyd and Cadel are the two least likely to have a really bad day. Cadel (almost) never attacks, but he's also (almost) impossible to shake.

As far as Rasmussen is concerned, I doubt he minds losing the time. It only makes it more likely that he'll be let go for a monster points collecting expedition.

72gmc
07-13-2006, 01:36 PM
i don't know that menchov makes the podium. he seems to aggravate the contenders around him by just following wheels--last year's vuelta (where it paid off post-scandal) and this spring. his tactics may serve to unite landis, levi, cadel etc against him at a critical point in the high mountains.

disco. what is with that team. hincapie fantasies aside, popo and paolo should be better than this, shouldn't they?

J.Greene
07-13-2006, 01:49 PM
rabo has the best team in the mountains but menchov doesn't look to be strong enough to drop landis

landis looks the strongest but has no team

levi is back, but too far down to be anything other than an ally

t-mobile has depth but no "finisher"

evans will follow the battle -- no team mates, no risk, no attacks.


its floyd vs. the rabo triumvirate for the next two weeks. everybody else is a spectator. its up to rabo to make the race...if menchov is up to it.

neither yeehaw nor i will get a cheesburger.

I thought it was odd watching the supporting cast race for the stage and yellow jersey. The racing wasn't much different than if Armstrong, Basso, and Ullrich were up the road racing ahead of these guys. It looked like they were racing for 4th atmo.

JG

victoryfactory
07-13-2006, 01:49 PM
Discovery is the history channel now.


That's funny

sspielman
07-13-2006, 02:05 PM
I expect that it will be a bit of a boxing match among Landis, Menchov, Evans, and Kloden for the top spot. Floyd surely looked strong, but his injury could blow at any time. A little further down, I have to mention that Moreau did a great job...in 9th at 3:44. Another interesting rider is Haimar Zubeldia in 11th at 4:26....I am hoping for a top 10 finish from him.

Avispa
07-13-2006, 02:11 PM
...Popovych, Hincapie, Savoldelli . . . wow. The great disappering act continues. OK, I never really expected anything from the latter two, but I did expect Popovych to at least hang with, say, Moreau.

A lot of us still think that some of these riders can do a double Tour and do well... But I say, no way!

After all is said and done, I am actually so happy that the some of these big names are out of this race!!!

Elefantino
07-13-2006, 02:15 PM
I guess we can finally dismiss those fanciful notions of Big George ever being a gc contender in the big tours. I guess one stage win does not a yellow jersey in Paris make.

Has he finished yet?

Snide comments aside, it was a bit of high drama to see Mayo trying to shoo away the motorcycle cameraman so he could hop off the bike and into the team car. Swearing in Spanish, more swearing in French. Only on live TV.

It's now:

Evans
Landis
Menchov

Sticking with Cadel, hoping for Floyd, worrying about Menchov.

Fat Robert
07-13-2006, 03:16 PM
thinking about past races from the big three -- landis, evans, menchov

menchov has never made a big attack to win a race, as far as i can recall...he's a follower. it is incredibly rare for a guy to suddenly pull moves he's never tried before in a grand tour. guys just don't change their style and temperament. i don't see menchov making a big, tour-winning attack in the mountains...hey, i'm no phil ligget, but i just don't square that with the rider he's been up to now.

floyd can be aggressive -- we saw that with postal and at paris-nice. but he's also isolated. how many guys have won the tour by attacking when they're isolated? that would work on the last summit finish, but maybe too risky to try before then.

evans can be aggressive -- and also blow up when in the leader's jersey. like floyd, he doesn't have a guardian angel of the mountains to help him if he overextends himself and gets into difficulty.

this is a poker match until the last summit finish...then the tt sorts it out.

J.Greene
07-13-2006, 03:42 PM
thinking about past races from the big three -- landis, evans, menchov

menchov has never made a big attack to win a race, as far as i can recall...he's a follower. it is incredibly rare for a guy to suddenly pull moves he's never tried before in a grand tour. guys just don't change their style and temperament. i don't see menchov making a big, tour-winning attack in the mountains...hey, i'm no phil ligget, but i just don't square that with the rider he's been up to now.

floyd can be aggressive -- we saw that with postal and at paris-nice. but he's also isolated. how many guys have won the tour by attacking when they're isolated? that would work on the last summit finish, but maybe too risky to try before then.

evans can be aggressive -- and also blow up when in the leader's jersey. like floyd, he doesn't have a guardian angel of the mountains to help him if he overextends himself and gets into difficulty.

this is a poker match until the last summit finish...then the tt sorts it out.

Based on your analysis above it looks more and more like they are all racing for 4th place atmo.

JG

flyingscot
07-13-2006, 03:54 PM
Feels weird to read the big 3 at the TdF are landis, evans, menchov

Today was a great stage - even better as I did the same ride (up to the descent of the Portillon) last week
Nice to see landmarks on TV and have memories flood back
I was a bit slower though!

But I could not help watching the TV and imagining how T-Mobile would have attempted to set up the Jan
Or if Basso would have blown them all away, a la the giro

Exciting race sure - but ultimate quality just lacking

Also love how T-Mobile were looking strong on the Portillon until they decided to set a pace only 1 of their riders could maintain!
I assume someone told them there were 5 climbs and not just the 4 !

swoop
07-13-2006, 04:40 PM
the thing is.. the pyreneese and the alps are two diffeent kinds of climbs. and it's funny but some guys do one or the other markedly better. there's still room for a guy to gain back ten minutes to someone that loses ten. but yeah.. george lost 22 or so minutes... ouch. done. i don't think it'sa surprise to him or anyone else.
rabo was amazing today. total team effort. fun to watch. i think t-mobile had some guys pooing themselves wondering if the pace would stay that high...
i wonder how floyd's team will do in the next few? because they are going to be put into the wind a lot. anything can still happen.
that kid on levi's team.. the best young rider dude... that was impressive. he's someone to watch in the future.
the weather could be a factor too. it looked windy today.

this stuff is fun to watch, no? i was loving every second of it. boogard (sic) was the man today. chicken too... they laid it down for their boy.

flyingscot
07-13-2006, 04:50 PM
Agreed on Rabo
Boogerd was a hero
Also nice to see the chicken attempt to dispel his image as a selfish loner
But not as if you get much of a break being in his wheel!

Markus Fothen is one of 5 or 6 really good young german cyclists (most of whom can climb) - the future is very bright
Linus Gerdemann who could be the best of them all (and lit up the DL) is not here
He is meant to be the next Jan - at the time I am sure it was meant to be a compliment

Grant McLean
07-13-2006, 06:17 PM
Boogerd is obviously a client...

http://pics.drugstore.com/prodimg/69313/200.jpg

g

saab2000
07-13-2006, 06:48 PM
Boogerd is obviously a client...



No doubt! What a set of chompers that dude has!

Fat Robert
07-13-2006, 06:57 PM
i think that saying it looked like they were racing for fourth does not recognize the quality of these riders of the nature of this tour (which is a lot like the 87 one).

landis and menchov would give any of the guys on holiday a run. one of them has podiumed at a grand tour, the other was on a collision course with basso to duke this one out.

in 87 and 89, the race was not exactly set alight in the pyrenees. the favorites watched each other and let the pretenders eliminate themselves. likewise, in 90 (when the alps came first) the racing in the alps was conservative -- remember bugno taking a 7-rider sprint at the alpe?

listen to swoop. this thing will go pop on the last summit finish, and then the time trial will sort out the podium spots. landis could make up time on menchov in a tt. the opposite isn't happening.

J.Greene
07-13-2006, 07:09 PM
i think that saying it looked like they were racing for fourth does not recognize the quality of these riders of the nature of this tour (which is a lot like the 87 one).

landis and menchov would give any of the guys on holiday a run. one of them has podiumed at a grand tour, the other was on a collision course with basso to duke this one out.

in 87 and 89, the race was not exactly set alight in the pyrenees. the favorites watched each other and let the pretenders eliminate themselves. likewise, in 90 (when the alps came first) the racing in the alps was conservative -- remember bugno taking a 7-rider sprint at the alpe?

listen to swoop. this thing will go pop on the last summit finish, and then the time trial will sort out the podium spots. landis could make up time on menchov in a tt. the opposite isn't happening.

I agree with everything you say....

my point(respectfully) is that these guys in previous tours have always ridden to limit their losses mostly. They either have not been able to attack the big 3, or were scared to for fear of blowing up. These were the guys going out the back, riding within themselves etc...

This year like you say they are either waiting for the alps, or this is all they got. Maybe this year staying near the front is the winning strategy since you never know when the guy ahead of you gets ejected for what doctor he uses :)

I agree with Phil, Paul and Swoop. The apls and peyrenees are different weeks.

JG

BBB
07-13-2006, 07:43 PM
in 87 and 89, the race was not exactly set alight in the pyrenees. the favorites watched each other and let the pretenders eliminate themselves. likewise, in 90 (when the alps came first) the racing in the alps was conservative -- remember bugno taking a 7-rider sprint at the alpe?

listen to swoop. this thing will go pop on the last summit finish, and then the time trial will sort out the podium spots. landis could make up time on menchov in a tt. the opposite isn't happening.

I think each race has to be looked at in it's context. In '89 LeMond was in yellow through the Pyrenees, it was the first time he had ridden well since '86 and he had no team to help him at all and was riding defensively. Delgado, who had lost a lot of time in the first week, was on the attack, while Fignon expected LeMond to defend his jersey even though he did not have the team or (at that stage) the legs to do so. So LeMond and Fignon watched each other, while Delgado attacked on the final climb in the first stage in the Pyrenees (won by a certain M Indurain) and then went on a long break in the second mountain stage.

In '90 the Alpe D'Huez stage was very aggressive. Delgado, Bugno and LeMond were out front and Bugno did not want to work and neither did LeMond whose team mate was in yellow. Hence the break slowed and riders caught up from behind. I think LeMond was interviewed at the end of the stage and said if he and Bugno had ridden they would have won by minutes.

Sorry for the history lesson, but the context of the race probably helps explain the result. Last night was pretty aggressive and once the favourites were in front I got the impression they not only interested in watching each other but you have to wonder if it was a case of "well we are here, what next?"

Climb01742
07-13-2006, 07:51 PM
lemond won one of his tours with basically no team, if i remember correctly. think it was '89 with ADR. who else was on ADR? maybe floyd can do it, too. here's hoping.

J.Greene
07-13-2006, 07:59 PM
who else was on ADR?

a very young rookie museeuw

JG

coylifut
07-13-2006, 08:08 PM
I don't think the absence of Jan or Basso diminishes the eventual winner's accomplishment. It's likely that we'll never see those guys again. Besides Vino, these are the best guys in the sport.

Elefantino
07-13-2006, 08:33 PM
a very young rookie museeuw

I think he, LeMond and only two others from ADR finished that Tour.

swoop
07-14-2006, 02:14 AM
did y'all see Boonen's rather telling qoute about the stage today on cyclingnews.com?

i admire every one of those guys that finished that stage today... from first to last. there are going to be some empty legs tomorrow.

Climb01742
07-14-2006, 05:18 AM
I think he, LeMond and only two others from ADR finished that Tour.

and i remember lemond being isolated on every (or what seemed like every) mountain stage. everyone remembers his 8 sec win, but riding the mountains alone may have been a bigger achievement.

Russell
07-14-2006, 09:03 AM
and i remember lemond being isolated on every (or what seemed like every) mountain stage. everyone remembers his 8 sec win, but riding the mountains alone may have been a bigger achievement.

check out Landis' interview in cyclingnews.com. funny comment on lance.

Q: Would it be correct to say that your team worked well during the first climb, and that you sort of gave them the last climb off?

FL: The same thing than yesterday. We told most of the guys that it wasn't necessary to have the whole team there with me, even one guy would be enough. Probably some people misjudged the strength of our team to think that they're all bad; today we gambled a little. A couple of teams were very confident and did most of the work for us. Probably we can't expect that to happen anymore, but we take it.

yeehawfactor
07-14-2006, 09:05 AM
check out Landis' interview in cyclingnews.com. funny comment on lance.

Q: Would it be correct to say that your team worked well during the first climb, and that you sort of gave them the last climb off?

FL: The same thing than yesterday. We told most of the guys that it wasn't necessary to have the whole team there with me, even one guy would be enough. Probably some people misjudged the strength of our team to think that they're all bad; today we gambled a little. A couple of teams were very confident and did most of the work for us. Probably we can't expect that to happen anymore, but we take it.
you'll find something of particular interest in the cyclingnews update for today