OT: Weather reporters drive me nuts

[Keith A]

I've been surfing since I was a teenager and have had the good fortune of traveling to surf some pretty good sized waves. So I've been following the weather all this time...especially how it relates to the surfing conditions.

So it drives me nuts to hear the weather reporters make such exaggerated statements about the weather conditions -- especially when they are reporting on an approaching storm. Case in point, Jim Cantore is on the beach in Cedar Key (where TD #9 is heading) and is talking about the current conditions. You can see the beach and water in the shot, and there are NO waves to speak of, just lapping on the beach. He states "what is usually a docile Gulf of Mexico already has some pretty good waves with it".

Come on Jim, you know better than that. What is the point? I guess they do/say whatever they can to increase viewership.

[AngryScientist]

you should come to the Northeast whenever the first snow of the season is predicted. irrespective of if 2" or 3' are actually predicted, it'd the end of the world.

it's an absolute conspiracy to sell out every shelf in the supermarket.

[Keith A]

Here's my problem with this issue. If they are willing to make statements like this, which in this case was a complete falsehood, how can I have confidence in anything else he says?

[ripvanrando]

God invented weathermen to make economists look good.

[AngryScientist]

God invented weathermen to make economists look good.

lol. :hello:

[Ralph]

Yes....From the reporting, one would think Florida is going under water. I'm on the rainy side of the storm when it crosses Florida, and I'm not expecting much more than we usually get from some afternoon storms. Got a bike ride in this AM, maybe again tomorrow. Weather people got to make a living also I guess.

[flydhest]

God invented weathermen to make economists look good.



I am an economist.

... and I support this message.

[Keith A]

Ralph -- I'm with you on this one and am just east of you. I missed my ride last night due to the rain, I should have gone out this morning...but didn't. I'm hoping to get out early tomorrow before the rain comes through.

[fuzzalow]

you should come to the Northeast whenever the first snow of the season is predicted. irrespective of if 2" or 3' are actually predicted, it'd the end of the world.

it's an absolute conspiracy to sell out every shelf in the supermarket.

It's the end of the world as far as the news and local media outlets are concerned - the hyped up panic is good for ratings and people are always interested in knowing how they will be inconvenienced. But the Northeast corridor doesn't handle snow badly with the exception IMO of NW Washington DC. That entire town shuts down at the merest whiff of impending snowfall - fully conizant I am mocking myself in the bubble-view that all of DC is solely comprised of NW.

Hey, leave weather reporters and economists alone - 1 hit in 3 makes it into Cooperstown.

[JonB]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yaJGFdhNkU


you should come to the Northeast whenever the first snow of the season is predicted. irrespective of if 2" or 3' are actually predicted, it'd the end of the world.

it's an absolute conspiracy to sell out every shelf in the supermarket.

[SoCalSteve]

El Niño was supposed to be a crazy weather pattern over SoCal last winter. The media hyped it up like crazy. People who hadn't done any work on their roofs or rain gutters for years ( think 5 year drought ) panicked. I mean PANICKED!

The rains never came to SoCal, but the roofers made a ***** ton of money. They were so busy, they got so arrogant and greedy, wouldn't return calls, wanting to charge double and triple the going rate and weeks to months wait time.

I hope they didn't go out and buy their wives new cars...cuz, I'm sure they are sitting at home now watching soap operas. Serves them right!!!

[JonB]

aaannnddd... the classic.

DAMN YOU SNOW!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on8O9fmR_8k

[eippo1]

I've been surfing since I was a teenager and have had the good fortune of traveling to surf some pretty good sized waves. So I've been following the weather all this time...especially how it relates to the surfing conditions.

So it drives me nuts to hear the weather reporters make such exaggerated statements about the weather conditions -- especially when they are reporting on an approaching storm. Case in point, Jim Cantore is on the beach in Cedar Key (where TD #9 is heading) and is talking about the current conditions. You can see the beach and water in the shot, and there are NO waves to speak of, just lapping on the beach. He states "what is usually a docile Gulf of Mexico already has some pretty good waves with it".

Come on Jim, you know better than that. What is the point? I guess they do/say whatever they can to increase viewership.

Wait, Jim Cantore was out in calm weather?! I thought he caused the bad weather by way of a personal tropical depression since I've never seen him otherwise. Kinda like how I figured out that Clark Kent was Superman (even though they looked really similar :p).

[Keith A]

Wait, Jim Cantore was out in calm weather?! I thought he caused the bad weather by way of a personal tropical depression since I've never seen him otherwise. Kinda like how I figured out that Clark Kent was Superman (even though they looked really similar :p).That was funny...had me laughing out loud. He wanted you to think it wasn't calm weather :eek: I'm going to try and record this on my phone and post it later.

[dave thompson]

The word 'meteorologist' is Latin for liar.

[cloudguy]

I am an economist.

... and I support this message.

Whatever. This attached figure of NCEP forecast skill shows steady progress during the past 50 years, which anyone who has paid attention should be able to confirm though experience.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/sib/verification/s1_scores/s1_scores.pdf

Do economists even keep track of their prediction skill?

[Matthew]

It's the same here in Michigan like Angry described in the Northeast. The first snowfall is always epic. Yet usually it's a dusting that causes no issues. And forget about actual winter storms. They often give them names!! Like the world is going to end. Stock up on food, gas, guns, generators, candles, water, blankets, and anything else we may need to survive. It's just ridiculous. It's freaking Michigan for crying out loud. We are guaranteed some snow at some point. Especially on the west side of the state where the lake effect snow kicks in. It is comical on the roads with the first decent snow though. It's as if people have never driven in it before. Carnage everywhere!!

[fignon's barber]

I'm in the Clearwater area. It's an impending doom situation. If you don't hear from me by Friday, first to PM gets my stockpile of vintage Campy skewers. :beer:

[Keith A]

I'm in the Clearwater area. It's an impending doom situation. If you don't hear from me by Friday, first to PM gets my stockpile of vintage Campy skewers. :beer:The latest projected path has this shifted more to the west, so I think you might get to keep your vintage Campy skewers a little longer. BTW, I was in your neck of the woods a couple of weeks ago down in Pass-a-Grille beach :cool:

[gone]

Let's face it, the Weather Channel is talking about the weather for 24 hours a day and they need you to stay tuned at least until the next commercial airs. If they say "it's a nice day, nothing much is happening" everybody is going to be reaching for their remotes.

I was in KC once headed toward Des Moines. Turned on the Weather Channel to get the forecast. I swear, based on the forecast I really had my doubts whether Des Moines would still even be there when I arrived. Seriously thought about staying put.

Long story short, left anyway. When I got to Des Moines I sat outside at a coffee shop on a beautiful day and enjoyed the clear sunny skies.

[flydhest]

Whatever. This attached figure of NCEP forecast skill shows steady progress during the past 50 years, which anyone who has paid attention should be able to confirm though experience.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/sib/verification/s1_scores/s1_scores.pdf

Do economists even keep track of their prediction skill?



First, it was a joke. Second, yes, lots of people keep track of their accuracy.
Third, as my father would say, people become economists because they don't have the personality to be accountants. Finally, even though I am jealous that meteorologists get to use cool math and lots of data, I don't forecast one to three days ahead.

[Climb01742]

Third, as my father would say, people become economists because they don't have the personality to be accountants.

Thank you (and your father) for making me laugh.:D

[cloudguy]

OK, its just the "meteorologists are liars and frauds" meme gets old after a while. Also, NCEP generates weather forecasts at lead times from days to several weeks, with skill obviously decreasing at longer leads. Of course, there are also community-wide efforts at generating even longer lead forecasts (seasonal to decadal) with some indication of marginal skill. By 2100, we are almost completely certain that the earth will be much warmer than it is today and hurricanes will probably be more intense than we are accustomed to. Most of Florida will also probably be under water. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

[fuzzalow]

Sometimes I read responses in this forum from people I don't know. Sometimes I think I miss what they are going for, as far as making a point, or miss what their humour might be, if they were making a joke. Sometimes it might be possible that somebody is serious and genuinely upset at something that I am lost as to why anybody would take exception about in what seemed an innocuous conversation.

I think some of that is in this thread.

David Brooks recent column in the Op/Ed NYTimes talked about how some in modern life have allowed themselves to be fragile emotionally or intellectually: Making Modern Toughness (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/opinion/making-modern-toughness.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fdavid-brooks&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection). I took Brooks' implicit point to be that it is easy to become fragile when the focus of life is one's own self absorption; this statement is not aimed at anyone here or in this thread.

I gotta laugh if there is the expectation of predictive definition and clarity in life, ain't gonna happen. Not my profession but I'd guess modelling of weather patterns is a complex endeavour. Work with what you've got, take the facts as you can get 'em and bravely sally forth into the world. Not good enough? What can I tell you?

[Seramount]

it always amuses when the local weather person is lamenting a heat wave in July...uh, bro it's summer, it's supposed to be hot.

then we get two days of clouds and a little precip and they start bemoaning things by saying 'will this rain ever end, when will we see the sun again...?'

gad. just shut it...

[adamhell]

i literally clicked on this while watching the episode of curb where larry suspects the weatherman of botching his reports so he can have the golf course all to himself.

maybe the guy knows where it's really good and is throwing everybody off.

[bikingshearer]

Dear TV Weatherperson:

I just gone done shoveling 18 inches of "partly cloudy" off my driveway . . . . .




As someone pointed out, the real problem with hyperbole in the weather forecasting is the loss of credibility, such that when something like Katrina comes along, too many people simply refuse to believe the warnings. Meteorology is a serious and seriously important field. It deserves better than to have so many of its most visible spokespeople be entertainers first and serious practitioners second.

Of course, we the people vote with our channel clickers, so it really ends up being our own damn faults - as with so many things we like to rail against.

[Climb01742]

Local TV stations have no real interest in the accuracy and content of their weather forecasts. They use the weather the same way they use murder stories in their A block...to sensationalize and scare you into watching. Content on local news is visual click bait to draw eyeballs. Hence the creation of 'weather bunnies' too. I feel sorry for real meteorologists on the news. Their worth is how well they shill, not forecast.

[CNY rider]

Get your weather forecast from the national weather service website. Find your location, click on it, and there's your forecast.
Objective, no drama.
If you want deeper insight and an understanding of how the forecast was generated learn to read the forecaster's discussion section. It takes some time and learning new lingo but it's worth it.

[verticaldoug]

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=glob_height

If you are a surfer, you need to get on a plane right now and head to Tasmania. or if too expensive, pico alto peru.

[Mark McM]

I am an economist.

... and I support this message.

The definition of a weather person is the same as for an economist:

It is a person who can tell you tomorrow, why what they predicted yesterday, didn't happen today.



Now that I think about it, weather people, economists and astrologers have a lot in common:

- They all claim to know more about the future then they really do;

- They all make predictions for future events;

- Their record for making accurate predictions is not much better than random chance;

- And yet we all keep going back to them for more predictions.

[gemship]

I've been surfing since I was a teenager and have had the good fortune of traveling to surf some pretty good sized waves. So I've been following the weather all this time...especially how it relates to the surfing conditions.

So it drives me nuts to hear the weather reporters make such exaggerated statements about the weather conditions -- especially when they are reporting on an approaching storm. Case in point, Jim Cantore is on the beach in Cedar Key (where TD #9 is heading) and is talking about the current conditions. You can see the beach and water in the shot, and there are NO waves to speak of, just lapping on the beach. He states "what is usually a docile Gulf of Mexico already has some pretty good waves with it".

Come on Jim, you know better than that. What is the point? I guess they do/say whatever they can to increase viewership.

Jim Cantore is such a total clown. He lives for BIG weather events. I recall clips of him practically doing flips over "thunder snow" events. That guy can get nauseating to watch pretty quick. There's gotta be some job security behind that act but I'm pretty sure he was always geeking out over the weather.

[bcroslin]

One of the worst nights of my life was spent photographing Anderson Cooper back in his "news" days "reporting" from Vero beach as a hurricane came on land. He was an arrogant jerk and actually had the nerve to get pissed at me because I decided to take a cat nap while my cameras dried out because they were so wet they stopped working. I mean, I guess I could have grabbed a notepad and made some sketches of his dumb ass standing in 70 mph winds.

The next morning we roll out and head back to the hotel and he's sitting in the lobby complaining there isn't enough damage on the beaches so he's hopping the next plane back to Manhattan. Keep in mind parts of Vero beach got flattened but not enough for him.

He went back to NYC and complained to my agent that I took a 45 min nap at 4 am and that I did a terrible job. My reply was if that was the case they didn't have to pay me and I'd trash the images. The editor at CNN freaked and apologized and when I sent my take she couldn't figure out what the problem was as I had captured everything they needed which was vanity images of Cooper playing hurricane reporter. What a total dick hole.

To this day I still hate the guy.

[Keith A]

bcroslin -- Interesting insights, thanks for sharing.

[flydhest]

The definition of a weather person is the same as for an economist:



It is a person who can tell you tomorrow, why what they predicted yesterday, didn't happen today.







Now that I think about it, weather people, economists and astrologers have a lot in common:



- They all claim to know more about the future then they really do;



- They all make predictions for future events;



- Their record for making accurate predictions is not much better than random chance;



- And yet we all keep going back to them for more predictions.



A close friend and fellow economist gave me words to live by. I usually cite the phrase often attributed to Niels Bohr "forecasting is hard, especially about the future," but I now quote my friend who says "I only forecast to find out why I am wrong."

At first, I thought it was the economists' version of gallows humor. Now I realize that it is profound in insight and humility.

That said, do not listen to economists who cannot explain when they are uncertain versus when they are somewhat certain (actually being certain means you should not listen to them at all.). Think in probabilities, not point forecasts.