SPOILER....understanding today's TT [Archive]

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 11:49 AM

Yes, yes, yes... OLN is awesome for covering the race. It's trilling to have
continuing live feed in North America. I want everyone to enjoy the race,
regardless of their personal level of knowledge, BUT.............

Holy crap, Batman! Have the Lance years have brainwashed everyone?

Phil & Paul called the whole race today as if only a Tour favorite can win
a time trial! What?!?! Just because Lance dominated the tt AND could win in
the mountains, doesn't mean the next tour winner will follow that formula.
Lance crushed everyone else exactly because he could do both. How many
men in the history of the race have done that??? Not many. Today's press
expect this years tour riders to do that? Not going to happen.

Time trial specialists will beat overall GC contenders 99.9% of the time,
how is this a "shock" to Phil & Paul? Al called discovery's day today a
"teamwide malfunction".

Go back and learn your tour history, people!

Look at the GC. All the favorites are very close. Floyd, Georgie, Savodilli,
Popo, Kloden, Menchov, Pereiro, Sastre, Cadel... they're all right there.

2 minutes in the mountains is nothing. The race has just begun. Today's
stage showed two things.... Floyd can TT, and Levi had a really bad day.
Is Floyd ready for the mountains? Wow, it's going to be good! The race is on!

g

Fixed

07-08-2006, 12:02 PM

bro you may be right as always floyd looks good though . i think we will see the falcon fly sometime . russians and germans look good too. what fun this is .
cheers

Ray

07-08-2006, 12:02 PM

Agreed. But you gotta like where Floyd's sitting. Assuming he was taking it easy in the Dauphine (I don't KNOW that, but it sure seemed that way), the people who can really hurt Floyd in the mountains are way way down (like Mayo down 6+ overall, 5+ to Floyd). I may be wrong, but in last year's Tour, Floyd was usually in the second group of climbers, behind LA, Jan, Ivan, and the occasional hanger on, but with or ahead of the likes of Evans, Levi, Kloden, etc, and generally well ahead of a lot of the remaining contenders. He also doesn't tend to have really bad days (although he's never been under the kind of pressure he's gonna be under this week).

Boy is it ever ON now. I wouldn't put any real money on anyone, but since Lancaster County is right next to where I live and I ride there a lot, I gotta claim Floyd as my home-town boy and start rooting like hell for him.

From here on out, my objectivity is officially turned off!

That said, did Levi just have a bad day or would it take a pretty bad illness or something to cause THAT much of a loss? I would think a bad day might cost a minute or a minute and a half, not five!

-Ray

ada@prorider.or

07-08-2006, 12:08 PM

time trail results

did any one count how many riders was on uci list with cought with doping before
???????????

Fixed

07-08-2006, 12:13 PM

hey bro ..prof. rabobank looks pretty good from here, what do you think ? my wife's family were dairy famers from holland so we like the boys in orange .
cheers

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 12:15 PM

Agreed. But you gotta like where Floyd's sitting. Assuming he was taking it easy in the Dauphine (I don't KNOW that, but it sure seemed that way), the people who can really hurt Floyd in the mountains are way way down. I may be wrong, but in last year's Tour, Floyd was usually in the second group of climbers, behind LA, Jan, Ivan, and the occasional hanger on, but with or ahead of the likes of Evans, Levi, Kloden, etc, and generally well ahead of a lot of the remaining contenders. He also doesn't tend to have really bad days (although he's never been under the kind of pressure he's gonna be under this week).

Boy is it ever ON now. I wouldn't put any real money on anyone, but since Lancaster County is right next to where I live and I ride there a lot, I gotta claim Floyd as my home-town boy and start rooting like hell for him.

From here on out, my objectivity is officially turned off!

That said, did Levi just have a bad day or would it take a pretty bad illness or something to cause THAT much of a loss? I would think a bad day might cost a minute or a minute and a half, not five!

-Ray

Yup, Floyd looks great. But I still think nothing really happened today to
seperate the top guys. I'm still in shock at the GC. Everyone is there.

Floyd beat Kloden by 43 seconds. From Koden back to 25th place is only 1 minute!

Reading the stage and GC results, was I watching the same race as OLN?

g

72gmc

07-08-2006, 12:22 PM

Fixed

07-08-2006, 12:27 PM

bro he had epo bars
cheers

taz-t

07-08-2006, 12:29 PM

.

Holy crap, Batman! Have the Lance years have brainwashed everyone?

Phil & Paul called the whole race today as if only a Tour favorite can win
a time trial! What?!?! Just because Lance dominated the tt AND could win in
the mountains, doesn't mean the next tour winner will follow that formula.
Lance crushed everyone else exactly because he could do both. How many
men in the history of the race have done that??? Not many. Today's press
expect this years tour riders to do that? Not going to happen.

Time trial specialists will beat overall GC contenders 99.9% of the time,
how is this a "shock" to Phil & Paul? Al called discovery's day today a
"teamwide malfunction".

Go back and learn your tour history, people!

g

G -

Indurain was the epitome of this strategy - it didn't start with Lance. I think each of the multi-Tour winners rode like this including Lemond. Was Ullrich's strategy also, except Lance was better at it.

Doesn't dispute your thoughts on today's race, but except for '98 (Pantani) this has been the successful m.o. for at least 15 years.

- Taz

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 12:30 PM

i feel bad for bobby. apparently that was a crossing point for fans and some gravel may have been on the road.

and what about the uci messing with floyd as reported by oln? wasn't the uci at the tour of california, paris-nice, georgia? why wait until today to tell him his hands are too high?

I can't watch another replay of Bobby crash, just cringe and close my eyes.
Yikes.

What UCI regulation is that anyway? You'd think Phonak would know what
the rules are, this ruling today seems out of left field. What the heck?

g

Elefantino

07-08-2006, 12:34 PM

levi's interview the other day seemed almost too self-deprecating... i'll just try to limit my losses blah blah... perhaps he knew already he wasn't coming in to the day in good shape.

i feel bad for bobby. apparently that was a crossing point for fans and some gravel may have been on the road.

and what about the uci messing with floyd as reported by oln? wasn't the uci at the tour of california, paris-nice, georgia? why wait until today to tell him his hands are too high?

Levi: He choked. Five minutes down to Floyd. Difficult, but not impossible. Well, maybe.

Bobby: I'm heartbroken. I wanted him to win, which wasn't realistic but was nonetheless a hope.

Floyd: Hey UCI, eff off.

Menchov looks good, suddenly. He may podium. Evans is still there. This sucker is wide, wide open.

:banana:

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 12:35 PM

G -

Indurain was the epitome of this strategy - it didn't start with Lance. I think each of the multi-Tour winners rode like this including Lemond. Was Ullrich's strategy also, except Lance was better at it.

Doesn't dispute your thoughts on today's race, but except for '98 (Pantani) this has been the successful m.o. for at least 15 years.

- Taz

Sure, i know what you're saying - But Indurain didn't dominate in the mountains,
He rode to limit his losses.

But, btw, is there a rider of the caliber of Indurain in this field?
That's what i'm saying. Knowing the riders on the start line THIS year,
lets get a grip. It's not going to follow that pattern, last time I checked,
Basso and Ullrich went home. If Indurain and Lance were sent home,
would those 12 tours have been expected to follow the same pattern?
OLN needs to call THIS race, not the one they want to happen.

g

RDP

07-08-2006, 12:50 PM

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 01:17 PM

Phil & Paul did not call today's race as if "as if only a Tour favorite can win a time trial" unless remarking that this tour is "strange" is one and the same. Among what they commented on as strange were the unexpectedly poor American showing (Landis notwithstanding)--julich crashing, Leipheimer losing six minutes, Hincapie placing outside the top ten; and speaking of TT specialists, Paul and Phil expected Michael Rogers to take the Yellow jersey considering his GC position and talent. On another note, too bad OLN did not show Sebastien Lang's ride in detail. Would be nice to see the styles of the race's dominant TT riders.

That's the whole point, there was nothing strange about today's stage.

The last time there was a 50km tt before the mountains was 2002.
Just look at the results. How different is it from today? 2:40 seperate
the top 25 guys, and the tt specialists did well, and besides Lance,
the top GC contenders in this years race are all there in the same times.

g

taz-t

07-08-2006, 01:25 PM

Sure, i know what you're saying - But Indurain didn't dominate in the mountains,
He rode to limit his losses.

But, btw, is there a rider of the caliber of Indurain in this field?
That's what i'm saying. Knowing the riders on the start line THIS year,
lets get a grip. It's not going to follow that pattern, last time I checked,
Basso and Ullrich went home. If Indurain and Lance were sent home,
would those 12 tours have been expected to follow the same pattern?
OLN needs to call THIS race, not the one they want to happen.

g

I don't have OLN so was listening to the Eurosport audio feed. Duffeld (?), Kelly and the other commentator were focusing more on Michael Rogers opportunity for yellow.

However, I looked at some prior tour results (from the Torelli web page) and at least for the years that have stage results, it appears all the podium finishers would all have at least top 5 finishes in the ITTs. Not just the Indurain/Armstrong years. So from a historical perspective, a poor TT, especially a long one, does not bode well for a good GC finish.

I think the TT specialist is a more recent phenomenon, with the exception of the English riders like Boardman.

Still - I get the gist of your comments. This year is certainly much more wide open than prior years and maybe a historical slant is not the best focus for this year.

- Taz

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 01:45 PM

. So from a historical perspective, a poor TT, especially a long one, does not bode well for a good GC finish.

I think the TT specialist is a more recent phenomenon, with the exception of the English riders like Boardman.

Still - I get the gist of your comments. This year is certainly much more wide open than prior years and maybe a historical slant is not the best focus for this year.

- Taz

I totally agree that a poor tt is a bad thing! But beside Levi, which GC contenders
had a bad tt today? Floyd, Kloden, Menchov, Cadel, Moreau, Sastre, Paolo,
Hincapie were seperated by 1:42 today. Botero beat Lance in the 50km
tt in 2002, and it didn't mean jack. Notice that Gonchar was 3rd then.

g

pdxmech13

07-08-2006, 02:17 PM

the results that Grant posted from the 02 TT results.
7 of the top ten have been implicated with the good stuff kind doctor.

I think it could come down to some small unkown frenchie that the
peloton lets go. Beyond Disco I don't think there is a team capable
of handling the peloton in this tour and we've already seen this just
in the last seven stages.

bostondrunk

07-08-2006, 05:11 PM

I can't watch another replay of Bobby crash, just cringe and close my eyes.
Yikes.

What UCI regulation is that anyway? You'd think Phonak would know what
the rules are, this ruling today seems out of left field. What the heck?

g

UCI regulations state that the end of the aero bars cannot be higher than your saddle. I'm suprised they didn't make him lower them earlier in the season at any of the other races he did. Weird.

atmo

07-08-2006, 05:20 PM

I'm suprised <cut>
i missed you today yo.
i lit it up for exactly 1/2 lap atmo.

RDP

07-08-2006, 05:41 PM

a strange race today....."julich crashing, Leipheimer losing six minutes, Hincapie placing outside the top ten, UCI officials messing w/ Landis,...Boonen catching McEwen :rolleyes:

Avispa

07-08-2006, 06:04 PM

2 minutes in the mountains is nothing. The race has just begun. Today's stage showed two things.... Floyd can TT, and Levi had a really bad day. Is Floyd ready for the mountains? Wow, it's going to be good! The race is on!

Hey G,

I agree.... but WHAT time advantage is good to enter the mountains? 10 minutes?

I know that Floyd is good on the TT, but no pure climber is going to take that much more from him or anyone with his capabilities in the mountains! You see, there are no more Pantanis around... I don't think Rujano or Simoni can take such a time gap that is going to hurt Floyd, especially in the mountains of this 2006 Tour. I think the mountains in this year's tour suck, IMO.

But let's see... can't wait to see what lays ahead!

goonster

07-08-2006, 06:18 PM

Nobody wins the Tour in the time trial, but, obviously, every second you can gain on the other GC contenders, anywhere, is precious.

Lance would have still won all those Tours (except '03) if he had finished fifth in every individual time trial, but the TT wins did cement his dominance.

Levi's days of being considered a GC contender have got to be over. He better still make the top-10, or I owe somebody a very nice bottle of wine. :crap:

Props to Cadel, who is right on track for a top-5 finish.

Grant McLean

07-08-2006, 06:41 PM

Hey G,

I agree.... but WHAT time advantage is good to enter the mountains? 10 minutes?

I know that Floyd is good on the TT, but no pure climber is going to take that much more from him or anyone with his capabilities in the mountains! You see, there are no more Pantanis around... I don't think Rujano or Simoni can take such a time gap that is going to hurt Floyd, especially in the mountains of this 2006 Tour. I think the mountains in this year's tour suck, IMO.

But let's see... can't wait to see what lays ahead!

I think under 3 minutes is a small gap. That could be just one climb with a
finish at the top. My gut is telling me Kloden and Moreau have great form.
We'll see if Floyd can climb, he lost time to climbers last year, and finished
lower on the GC. Speaking of last years GC... is it just me or is there is a
gaping hole left by the absence of last years top riders. Rasmussen?
I don't think so. Is someone new going to come join the party?

g

Ray

07-08-2006, 06:50 PM

Speaking of last years GC... is it just me or is there is a
gaping hole left by the absence of last years top riders. Mancebo? Rasmussen?

Speaking of which, what happened to Rasmussen? I didn't realize he wasn't racing this year. Is he part of the Spanish mess?

-Ray