View Full Version : OT: Tesla Model 3
Cat3roadracer
03-31-2016, 09:31 AM
It even looks like a Jetta Wagen. Who is interested?
saab2000
03-31-2016, 09:44 AM
I'd be interested. But I don't need supercar performance. I'd trade some 0-60 time for more range.
bloody sunday
03-31-2016, 09:50 AM
saw a model x yesterday - looked really weird. Bloated model s
Have they actually revealed anything or is it all still auto-mag speculation?
Possibly interested as my wife is driving a 10 year old car if it worked for her it'd be pretty great. She drives a lot but the Model S range is probably already good enough for her work days.
Cat3roadracer
03-31-2016, 09:55 AM
To be introduced tonight 8:30pm Pacific time.
$1000 refundable deposit holds your spot in line. 2017 release date, not sure when exactly.
I wonder how much the performance hurts the range. I get the impression that unlike cars with normal engines the high performance of electrics only actually hurts range if you are using the throttle liberally.
But if there really is a substantial range/performance tradeoff I would firmly be in the camp of reduced performance.
If the choice was 0-60 in 7 seconds and 350 or 400 miles of range vs 0-60 in 3 seconds and range of 200-250 I'd take the slower car every time. (I've gotten the 0-60 in 3 seconds thing out of my system a long time ago.)
FlashUNC
03-31-2016, 10:07 AM
I wonder how much the performance hurts the range. I get the impression that unlike cars with normal engines the high performance of electrics only actually hurts range if you are using the throttle liberally.
But if there really is a substantial range/performance tradeoff I would firmly be in the camp of reduced performance.
If the choice was 0-60 in 7 seconds and 350 or 400 miles of range vs 0-60 in 3 seconds and range of 200-250 I'd take the slower car every time. (I've gotten the 0-60 in 3 seconds thing out of my system a long time ago.)
Hate to burst the bubble, but internal combustion functions the same way. Driving with a lead foot will absolutely lead to more stops at the pump.
Hate to burst the bubble, but internal combustion functions the same way. Driving with a lead foot will absolutely lead to more stops at the pump.
The effect is much worse on a gasoline engine, that was my point.
You could put a 4-liter 400HP V8 in a Civic or Corrolla and it would not get the same gas mileage as the current cars even if you drove it within the performance envelope of the current cars. Combustion engines operate efficiently within a much narrower range than electrics if I understand correctly.
josephr
03-31-2016, 10:24 AM
Interested? Yep! Am I a realistic customer? Nope --- the infrastructure just isn't around here for a guy like me...I live in a condo unit so installing a charging station just isn't feasible, nor are there any charging stations at the office or anywhere else for that matter. Maybe one of these days???
mgm777
03-31-2016, 11:35 AM
If Tesla can bring this to market for $35K, I am all in. Super psyched about this launch. A friend has had an "S" for 3 years and loves, loves, loves it! He has an "X" ordered for his wife. Based on my limited experience sitting in the passenger of his "S", I am very impressed.
livingminimal
03-31-2016, 12:02 PM
I hate cars. I really hate cars. I loathe them. however, they're almost necessary in Southern California, especially with children.
I will absolutely be buying whatever the updated model of this one is in 3-5 years. An electric wagon (hopefully with better range than this one) is definitely our next family car.
likebikes
03-31-2016, 12:20 PM
uhh, anyone got a picture?
Ken Robb
03-31-2016, 12:55 PM
A pal who runs a "Green Teen" Driving School is standing in line now to put down his $1000 deposit at our local Tesla store. He is also a high-performance driving instructor in his "spare time" and will be picking up his BMW M2 in Munich in May.
He says the Tesla fits his eco-friendly school image and at $35,000 less $7,500 federal tax credit it will make economic sense as a training vehicle. The $7,500 is offered until Tesla reaches 200,000 total sales. Tthe hen there is a reduced amount until another sales milestone is reached and, I think, yet another reduced credit as sales mount. Some folks think the 200,000 goal may be reached soon after the introduction of this new model so buyers who delay committing may have to pay quite a bit more than the early birds. I suppose quite a few people putting down $1,000 today may be speculators with no plans to keep the Teslas. I don't know what steps if any Tesla may take to discourage flipping/speculation, selling one's place in line, etc.
denapista
03-31-2016, 01:01 PM
Let me know when this one is released!
Best looking wagon EVER!
http://d25znxl852zxww.cloudfront.net/media/21237082/model-3-wagon.jpg.ashx?w=728&h=410&mode=crop&watermark=csr&format=jpg&quality=74&progressive=true&encoder=freeimage
Cat3roadracer
03-31-2016, 01:19 PM
Does anyone have information on the $7500 tax credit mentioned above? That would make the selling price quite attractive.
kitsnob
03-31-2016, 01:47 PM
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml
MikeD
03-31-2016, 05:10 PM
Range anxiety and no rooftop solar. I like the Prius better.
vqdriver
03-31-2016, 08:13 PM
that's more of a hybrid vs plug-in question. one that can only be answered by each individual driver.
personally, a 200 mile range is plenty for 95% of my driving.
the other 5%..... well, we still have the minivan.
Ken Robb
03-31-2016, 09:51 PM
I just learned that besides the friend I posted about putting down a deposit my neighbor/pal who has a Buick hybrid also put down a deposit today.
simple
03-31-2016, 10:50 PM
Let me know when this one is released!
Best looking wagon EVER!
http://d25znxl852zxww.cloudfront.net/media/21237082/model-3-wagon.jpg.ashx?w=728&h=410&mode=crop&watermark=csr&format=jpg&quality=74&progressive=true&encoder=freeimage
Have you seen the Audi A6 Avant, circa ~2005?
p nut
03-31-2016, 11:01 PM
150k reservations already!
mistermo
03-31-2016, 11:11 PM
Reserved one too. However, people need to abandon the wagon misinformation. It looks to me to be a barely smaller version of the S.
Imagine the tremors in Detroit (& Germany & Japan) when a car company can generate enough enthusiasm to cause >100,000 people to put down a deposit for a car that's still two years away. In one day!
They're going to more than double their charging stations in the next year.
rwsaunders
04-01-2016, 05:58 AM
No way they knocked off the AUDI...
peanutgallery
04-01-2016, 05:59 AM
Tesla is in the gonna, gonna, gonna phase
After my clean diesel experience l'm a little jaded. These guys want to make a truckload of cash just like any other car manufacturer and will market/spin this in a way that you wanna hear. Lots of Pollyanna about product and necessary infrastructure to make it work
I'm going to rain a little more on this, does an electric car really change the game? Still the steep environmental cost of manufacturing/driving/maintenance and getting it to you via ships with unregulated emissions. How about electricity? Still have make that...and deliver it, you don't hear anyone bragging about living on a powerline
I'll stop, but the point is...it's just more of the same
oldpotatoe
04-01-2016, 06:16 AM
Reserved one too. However, people need to abandon the wagon misinformation. It looks to me to be a barely smaller version of the S.
Imagine the tremors in Detroit (& Germany & Japan) when a car company can generate enough enthusiasm to cause >100,000 people to put down a deposit for a car that's still two years away. In one day!
They're going to more than double their charging stations in the next year.
Question for you plug in guys/gals..'charging stations', I see them in a few places in the republic also..are these free? Or do you pay for the charge?
Quick(as in quick like when you fill up) charging(maybe battery pack swap) battery tech and longer range..it's coming I guess. I had to wrangle my mother in law yesterday..trip to Littleton, drive here and there, then back in the PM..no electric would have worked. Too far plus not in any one place long enough to recharge.
seanile
04-01-2016, 06:28 AM
Question for you plug in guys/gals..'charging stations', I see them in a few places in the republic also..are these free? Or do you pay for the charge?
Quick(as in quick like when you fill up) charging(maybe battery pack swap) battery tech and longer range..it's coming I guess. I had to wrangle my mother in law yesterday..trip to Littleton, drive here and there, then back in the PM..no electric would have worked. Too far plus not in any one place long enough to recharge.
it's a tapered charge process. it's free.
45minutes to 80% 75minutes to 100%.
tesla describes it as filling a cup of water, you have to slow the faucet as it nears full. (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjXmsrFqu3LAhVETCYKHdPmAPEQFghGMAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teslamotors.com%2Fsupercharg er&usg=AFQjCNG7A_RbeS7Y2CCDDMdFq8PhOMQmTA&sig2=cupQ7gfqgMVA4sLR-7o30g)
shovelhd
04-01-2016, 07:04 AM
How many of those 125,000 are flippers?
Tesla may save your lungs, but the person driving it may still knock you down. it's a car. this is a cycling forum.
joosttx
04-01-2016, 07:30 AM
I am going to buy one
oldpotatoe
04-01-2016, 07:34 AM
Tesla may save your lungs, but the person driving it may still knock you down. it's a car. this is a cycling forum.
Where do ya live?
AngryScientist
04-01-2016, 07:38 AM
i'm likely ages away from buying a new car, so it's really not important to me, but - i think i like it!
https://s.yimg.com/lo/api/res/1.2/h0mffTnxQ9LdF8ZpzDNxcw--/YXBwaWQ9eW15O3c9NjQwO3E9NzU7c209MTtpbD1wbGFuZQ--/http://40.media.tumblr.com/193bb4a14775550f4159aad56f3a4293/tumblr_inline_o4xx5jODDL1t8yh62_1280.jpg
velomonkey
04-01-2016, 07:50 AM
I watched the live intro last night. Elon is a little odd and it takes him a while to get it out and it's a bit awkward. With that said - for 35k starting price this is the start of something big. I know 2 people who reserved one.
I did drive the model S and it was nothing short of a blast. The interior though could have been improved. BMW 5 or 7 series pricing, but with Acura TL interior. If that matters to you.
I'd consider one, but would want to try it out first, but I think I might wait for the next update.
mistermo
04-01-2016, 08:01 AM
Tesla is in the gonna, gonna, gonna phase
After my clean diesel experience l'm a little jaded. These guys want to make a truckload of cash just like any other car manufacturer and will market/spin this in a way that you wanna hear. Lots of Pollyanna about product and necessary infrastructure to make it work
I'm going to rain a little more on this, does an electric car really change the game? Still the steep environmental cost of manufacturing/driving/maintenance and getting it to you via ships with unregulated emissions. How about electricity? Still have make that...and deliver it, you don't hear anyone bragging about living on a powerline
I'll stop, but the point is...it's just more of the same
I get your comments, but I think you're looking at the glass as mostly empty, when it's mostly full.
Rather than gonna, gonna (which still applies) I think they already have, have. They already have delivered a 'game changing' vehicle, the Model S. Fastest sedan in history, and it doesn't use gas! Now it's on to mass production. If you gotta walk before you run, then Tesla is walking quite well.
And if the 3pt shot changed basketball, their dealerships in the mall, have changed the carbuying experience. Here in Indiana, a state beholden to GM, our legislators tried to re-write the rules to force Tesla out, so their Bolt could win. Unless GM sees them as a qualified threat, that doesn't happen.
http://www.indystar.com/story/money/2016/02/24/gm-backed-legislation-could-shut-down-tesla-indiana/80815046/
Environmentally, they're better than our 'clean' diesels, maybe even Priuses (Prii?) too.
I'll concede that not driving is cleaner than driving. I'll concede that manufacturing and transport of anything, comes with toll on the environment.
As with any game changing new development, there will be setbacks. And I predict Tesla will face them as they move forward on the Model 3, but it's hard to see that a $35K all electric car, with 215+ range is more of the same.
I'm going to rain a little more on this, does an electric car really change the game? Still the steep environmental cost of manufacturing/driving/maintenance and getting it to you via ships with unregulated emissions. How about electricity? Still have make that...and deliver it, you don't hear anyone bragging about living on a powerline
I never get sick of mentioning pollution from 100/whatever power plants is much easier to try and mitigate than pollution from millions of cars.
eddief
04-01-2016, 08:36 AM
boy, are my eyes super-habituated on seeing a grill with openings. i know it does not need it, but 125 year old habits die hard.
roguedog
04-01-2016, 08:45 AM
I'm with ya eddie. I kept re-looking at that. Just seems like a lot of empty space, kinda like those spaces in your car cockpit when you down modeled and all you got was the plastic placeholder plugin for the cool whatchamacallit you didn't pay an extra $xxxx for.
I couldn't quite figure out if i liked it or not or it'd grow on me. Also very hard to tell the finer details of the aesthetics without seeing it in real life.
tumbler
04-01-2016, 08:54 AM
I never get sick of mentioning pollution from 100/whatever power plants is much easier to try and mitigate than pollution from millions of cars.
+1. Electric gives you the ability to use multiple power sources, both today and in the future. Given the lifespan of today's automobiles and the transition to more and more renewable power each year, this flexibility is important. My 2013 internal combustion engine may still run in 2050, but it will be tied to unleaded gasoline when better alternatives will almost certainly exist.
I will say the 215 mile range probably puts it in the "no good" area for us. It's probably not enough for my wife to get through her worst workdays, although we could always swap cars.
It's also not enough to make the 2 most frequent trips we make.. Burlington VT and NYC area from Boston. It could make both of them but be very very very close to running out of battery and probably wouldn't make it if the 215 miles assumes good conditions as opposed to traffic on a 30 degree winter day.
Price and performance is just about right though!
edit: Guess I'm wrong, there are already enough Superchargers to make it work.
AngryScientist
04-01-2016, 09:11 AM
i know i can just go read this somewhere, but what is the reported range based on anyway?
is that reported value consistent with how others report range? it's an important number, and one that consumers will undoubtedly use to weigh one car vs another, so it would definitely be unfair to report them differently.
VTCaraco
04-01-2016, 09:23 AM
It's also not enough to make the 2 most frequent trips we make.. Burlington VT and NYC area from Boston. It could make both of them but be very very very close to running out of battery and probably wouldn't make it if the 215 miles assumes good conditions as opposed to traffic on a 30 degree winter day.
Charging stations have popped up in Bennington and Manchester. Stop and grab a bite to eat and recharge your REAL battery and it's completely viable...
Whether you want to travel with that sort of stopping, on the other hand, but the growing number of charging stations IS changing the feasibility, in my opinion (says that guy who had no interest until that infrastructure advanced in our less-populated part of the country).
peanutgallery
04-01-2016, 09:34 AM
Considering that close to 80% of the world struggles with clean water, much less 24/7 on electric power generation being consistant or cleanly produced. Even in the us. I just do not see a tesla or an electric car as a real option as it stands. Interesting idea, but not a solution, many of the same problems will exist and the numbers so small that a slight relief (if any at all) of environmental impact will be quickly lost in a vortex of consuming things. We're still consuming, manufacturing and digging holes to make "stuff" in order to feed the economic beast
But the hundreds of people in a certain demographic will be excited about the $7500 tax break. So there's that
I never get sick of mentioning pollution from 100/whatever power plants is much easier to try and mitigate than pollution from millions of cars.
druptight
04-01-2016, 09:37 AM
Curious about the bike toting options in this thing. Can the back seats fold down to make space to lay a bike down? Can you add a hitch mounted rack? Is that totally blasphemous?
adrien
04-01-2016, 09:45 AM
I like it, and generally like Teslas. The model X thing is a weird exercise in over-complexity, and looks like a Pontiac Aztec to me. But this, and especially the wagon, looks great.
As for the power plant point, not only are they much easier to change than all the vehicles, but there's also home generation. The ideal scenario is solar panels charging the car from the house. That would essentially be free.
We very strongly considered pure-electric for our new car, but the issue was range. Even say 200 miles was not enough for us, as were regularly (twice a year or so) drive to Canada and back -- that's a 600-mile day through a lot of nothing, and charging stations are not in those places, and battery life diminishes significantly with cold.
We ended up with a plug-in hybrid. Allows us to run errands and do the daily shlep on all-electric, but has a gas engine to allow for infinite range.
summilux
04-01-2016, 09:47 AM
Direct to consumer for cars actually works! I hope other brands try this.
p nut
04-01-2016, 09:47 AM
Curious about the bike toting options in this thing. Can the back seats fold down to make space to lay a bike down? Can you add a hitch mounted rack? Is that totally blasphemous?
Model S can be fitted with a roof rack:
http://shop.teslamotors.com/products/model-s-whispbar-roof-rack-system
I'd imagine the same for the 3. Then you can complete the trifecta.
http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0001/5660/products/DSC7236_1024x1024.jpg?v=1450284384
AngryScientist
04-01-2016, 09:49 AM
Direct to consumer for cars actually works! I hope other brands try this.
oh hell yes. not having to even step foot into a sleazy dealership would be a huge bonus.
livingminimal
04-01-2016, 09:52 AM
Poo-pooing of Tesla is comical. Is it perfect? Nope. But someone has to come first, and Fortune favors the bold. In 20 years we will be able to look back and say, yeah, the first electric car was killed off, but this time period will be seen as an absolute turning point in getting us off of ····ing fossil fuels.
livingminimal
04-01-2016, 09:53 AM
oh hell yes. not having to even step foot into a sleazy dealership would be a huge bonus.
A-freaking-men...the bike industry should tr...
...wait a second...
Ken Robb
04-01-2016, 10:00 AM
So since the maximum federal tax break of $7500 (and some state credits?) diminish after the 200,000th Tesla is sold how many of the "buyers" who lose out on that will walk away? I guess that depends on what the re-sale values/prices garnered by flippers seem to be then.
I read yesterday that while $35,000 is the base price "popular options" will add $15,000 to the typical sale. I will ask my pals who "bought" them yesterday about the fine print in their contracts concerning cancellation, options pricing, flipping to another buyer, etc.
All things considered this has to be a huge success for Tesla. It should also be encouraging for GM because they plan to release a new full electric car a year before the Tesla 3 and all these deposits prove there are quite a few people who want a full electric automobile. If the GM is a good car some Tesla waiters may decide to jump ship rather than waiting another year. Heck, there may be plenty of demand for both companies.
velomonkey
04-01-2016, 10:03 AM
In 90 minutes they had 115,000 pro orders. 115,000 times $1,000 equals a healthy $115 million—not a shabby haul for an hour and a half - money that is going to be held by Tesla for a year and half.
And yea, electric aint great - by all accounts it's better than fossil fuel in almost every category.
Steve in SLO
04-01-2016, 10:07 AM
I am one year into a three year lease with a Fiat 500e, and put a deposit down on a Model 3 last night.
It seems good next step, and the deposit is refundable.
The real game changer will be when somebody – are you listening, Tesla? – comes up with a standardized replaceable battery pack that can be swapped in a minute at a battery service station, like on electric power tools.
Pull out discharged and and push in charged.
p nut
04-01-2016, 10:08 AM
So, what does GM's (or other e-car manufacturers) charging station infrastructure look like? Tesla says they're going to double the number of Supercharger stations across the nation. I am assuming with GM's capital backing, they could roll out with something bigger (?).
I am clueless about e-car charging. Is there a standard for charging ports? Or is it manufacturer specific? Can you charge a Leaf at the Tesla stations? Or is that like trying to charge an iphone with a android charger?
dustyrider
04-01-2016, 10:10 AM
The thing with electric cars for me and my preferred locale is they would have to be a second car. Maybe when they can get me from Grand Junction to Denver and back with a solid 7 hour turn around time like my 40mpg car does I could say they're an alternative. For now it's just another thing. Things add up. I figure I'm being more green by not getting one...
I think this is interesting, though I agree with others that perhaps not for a one car family.
On pricing, isn't this more intended to compete with BMW 3-series/Audi A4 than with a Honda Accord? In which case, the pricing and option up-charge would be right in line with its competitors.
The real game-changer in electric cars will be when someone comes up with the next generation of battery technology.
verticaldoug
04-01-2016, 10:36 AM
The thing with electric cars for me and my preferred locale is they would have to be a second car. Maybe when they can get me from Grand Junction to Denver and back with a solid 7 hour turn around time like my 40mpg car does I could say they're an alternative. For now it's just another thing. Things add up. I figure I'm being more green by not getting one...
as a second car, it is probably less green than a regular internal combustion engine. The question is what is the carbon footprint for producing the car. I haven't seen accurate information, but because of the battery, the mining cost is significant. I've seen papers claiming the S footprint is equivalent to 80,000 miles. Considering most people will not keep their car that long, as a second car you don't drive that much and life cycle of the batteries is still a question mark, I doubt savings is really that great.
Fatty
04-01-2016, 10:42 AM
Poo-pooing of Tesla is comical. Is it perfect? Nope. But someone has to come first, and Fortune favors the bold. In 20 years we will be able to look back and say, yeah, the first electric car was killed off, but this time period will be seen as an absolute turning point in getting us off of ����ing fossil fuels.
Tesla is not exactly the first electric car.
http://www.electricauto.org/?page=evhistory
Fatty
04-01-2016, 10:45 AM
i'm likely ages away from buying a new car, so it's really not important to me, but - i think i like it!
https://s.yimg.com/lo/api/res/1.2/h0mffTnxQ9LdF8ZpzDNxcw--/YXBwaWQ9eW15O3c9NjQwO3E9NzU7c209MTtpbD1wbGFuZQ--/http://40.media.tumblr.com/193bb4a14775550f4159aad56f3a4293/tumblr_inline_o4xx5jODDL1t8yh62_1280.jpg
I like the styling. Very sleek.
Is that a one piece glass roof ?
What do you do when a rock takes out the windshield ?
Fatty
04-01-2016, 10:49 AM
The real game-changer in electric cars will be when someone comes up with the next generation of battery technology.
I agree with that.
Lithium batteries are not exactly " green " .
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Albrecht/2014-12-16-How-Green-is-Lithium.html
livingminimal
04-01-2016, 10:53 AM
Tesla is not exactly the first electric car.
http://www.electricauto.org/?page=evhistory
....that's why I said the first Electric Car was killed off...it was kind of an obvious allusion to this: http://www.whokilledtheelectriccar.com/
RowanB
04-01-2016, 11:34 AM
as a second car, it is probably less green than a regular internal combustion engine. The question is what is the carbon footprint for producing the car. I haven't seen accurate information, but because of the battery, the mining cost is significant. I've seen papers claiming the S footprint is equivalent to 80,000 miles. Considering most people will not keep their car that long, as a second car you don't drive that much and life cycle of the batteries is still a question mark, I doubt savings is really that great.
Shouldn't the figure of interest here be the total miles before the car (or battery pack?) is scrapped, not the distance driven by the first owner?
verticaldoug
04-01-2016, 12:16 PM
Shouldn't the figure of interest here be the total miles before the car (or battery pack?) is scrapped, not the distance driven by the first owner?
You can. But I doubt it will change the outcome of the calculation. The largest producer of cobalt in the world is the DRC. 1/6 of the world's nickel is produced by Norilsk Nickel in Russia which also produces 1% of the world sulphur.
And if you are driving a Tesla in China, your electricity is coming from coal. . .
The act of consumption is by it's nature non-green.
You can. But I doubt it will change the outcome of the calculation. The largest producer of cobalt in the world is the DRC. 1/6 of the world's nickel is produced by Norilsk Nickel in Russia which also produces 1% of the world sulphur.
And if you are driving a Tesla in China, your electricity is coming from coal. . .
The act of consumption is by it's nature non-green.
In fairness, I do think Musk envisions having the home charger powered by solar (obviously he has an interest in Solar City so that tie in is not purely altruistic).
The long term holding costs of the Tesla are what I do not know (i.e., is this a vehicle I could own for a decade or more). I know the studies out on the degradation of the battery in the Model S are not terrible (though obviously the range will decline) but I don't know about the other systems.
livingminimal
04-01-2016, 01:12 PM
This is good.
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s
Anarchist
04-01-2016, 01:13 PM
While these cars are interesting to an extent the continued sale of these things as "green" in any way is laughable.
The bigger problem, however, is that one of these would be completely incapable of meeting my driving needs when at least twice a week I have a drive that is over 400 kms.
Part way there I would be forced to pull over and plug the car in so I could get to the destination. Wonderful.
I can buy a fully loaded, every option possible, Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic for $25,000 with a much lower total cost of ownership. Of course they wouldn't look "cool" or impress the neighbours.
AngryScientist
04-01-2016, 01:19 PM
http://s3.amazonaws.com/theoatmeal-img/comics/tesla_model_s/outer_space_mf.png
rwsaunders
04-01-2016, 02:30 PM
Poo-pooing of Tesla is comical. Is it perfect? Nope. But someone has to come first, and Fortune favors the bold. In 20 years we will be able to look back and say, yeah, the first electric car was killed off, but this time period will be seen as an absolute turning point in getting us off of ����ing fossil fuels.
From the DOE's 2015 Annual Energy Outlook report (see below)...it's going to be a while, when a 19-year payback period is projected for an all electric vehicle. The last that I looked, coal is a fossil fuel too and it's burned to generate the electricity that powers the electric vehicles. Yes, alternative energy resources are making headway and yes, world wide economics influences many production and consumption factors, but to think that we will eliminate the need for fossil fuels in their entirety is without merit.
In 2040, compared with gasoline vehicles, fuel cost savings would be $227/year for an electric-gasoline hybrid, with a “payback period” of approximately 13 years for recovery of the difference in vehicle purchase price compared with a conventional gasoline vehicle; $247/year for a PHEV10, with a 27-year payback period; $271/year for a PHEV40, with a 46-year payback period; and $469/year for a 100% electric drive vehicle, with a 19-year payback period. These results are based on the following assumptions for each vehicle type: 12,000 miles traveled per year; average motor gasoline price of $3.90 per gallon; average electricity price of $0.12 per kilowatthour; and 0% discount rate. For plug-in hybrids it is assumed that a hybrid electric 10 (PHEV10) will use electric drive power for 21% of total miles traveled, and a hybrid electric 40 (PHEV40) for 58% of total miles traveled. The assumed vehicle purchase prices do not reflect national or local tax incentives.
livingminimal
04-01-2016, 02:52 PM
From the DOE's 2015 Annual Energy Outlook report (see below)...it's going to be a while, when a 19-year payback period is projected for an all electric vehicle. The last that I looked, coal is a fossil fuel too and it's burned to generate the electricity that powers the electric vehicles. Yes, alternative energy resources are making headway and yes, world wide economics influences many production and consumption factors, but to think that we will eliminate the need for fossil fuels in their entirety is without merit.
In 2040, compared with gasoline vehicles, fuel cost savings would be $227/year for an electric-gasoline hybrid, with a “payback period” of approximately 13 years for recovery of the difference in vehicle purchase price compared with a conventional gasoline vehicle; $247/year for a PHEV10, with a 27-year payback period; $271/year for a PHEV40, with a 46-year payback period; and $469/year for a 100% electric drive vehicle, with a 19-year payback period. These results are based on the following assumptions for each vehicle type: 12,000 miles traveled per year; average motor gasoline price of $3.90 per gallon; average electricity price of $0.12 per kilowatthour; and 0% discount rate. For plug-in hybrids it is assumed that a hybrid electric 10 (PHEV10) will use electric drive power for 21% of total miles traveled, and a hybrid electric 40 (PHEV40) for 58% of total miles traveled. The assumed vehicle purchase prices do not reflect national or local tax incentives.
Unless I'm misunderstanding (ive been up since 2am)
you've. completely. missed. my. point.
you have to push invention.
you have to nudge ingenuity.
Tesla does this in spades. More than anything else has.
(also, I'll cover the simplistic argument and say that the solar panels on my roof will cover the cost to plug in and charge my car, as part of my upcoming deal with Solar City)
mistermo
04-01-2016, 03:14 PM
^^:crap: Sometimes you do things that cost a little more, because they are the right things to do. I pay extra for my electric bill to ensure that it's sourced from clean, renewable sources. My religious bro in law, who pays 10% of his income to his church, once mocked me. I told him that it was my tithing, and that the environment is my equivalent of his church. Funny how nobody ever calcs a payback for those types of things.
And one of my primary reasons is to give the middle finger solute to oil producing nations that aren't the US. Someone please calc the value of less dependence on Mid East oil.
Mock away...
peanutgallery
04-01-2016, 03:30 PM
At least your family members can now buy you a practical gift. Extension cords:)
bbobway
04-01-2016, 04:07 PM
I'm impressed with what Tesla has accomplished. Building a competitive car is a huge undertaking. If I had a garage to charge it in I would buy one.
As a city dweller who parks on the street, I will be waiting until the charging station network improves. It will happen. When gasoline engines were new locating fuel must have been a challenge!
Ciavete
04-01-2016, 04:42 PM
From Union of Concerned Scientists (full link:http://blog.ucsusa.org/rachael-nealer/gasoline-vs-electric-global-warming-emissions-953):
In other words, the extra emissions associated with electric vehicle production are rapidly negated by reduced emissions from driving. Comparing an average midsize midrange BEV with an average midsize gasoline-powered car, it takes just 4,900 miles of driving to “pay back”—i.e., offset—the extra global warming emissions from producing the BEV. Similarly, it takes 19,000 miles with the full-size long-range BEV compared with a similar gasoline car. Based on typical usages of these vehicles, this amounts to about six months’ driving for the midsize midrange BEV and 16 months for the full-size long-range BEV.
Full report:http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions#.Vv7qrRMrL_Q
cnighbor1
04-01-2016, 04:58 PM
At my local city mall in downtown walnut creek there was a very long line to put down $1000 deposit on a Tesla Model 3
If they get at least 175 miles before you start sweating than it is a winner
In a two car family one electric car makes a lot of sense to own one
and electric motors last forever plus no transmission
Your maintence costs factored in owning 25 years are nil on a yearly base
peanutgallery
04-01-2016, 05:03 PM
So I did a little reading on the crapper about this car
How does Elon Musk plan to quadruple production by 2020? In 2015 tesla built 50,000 cars
By the time tesla ramps up, most car manufacturers could come out with a similar vehicle or pressure their suppliers to the point that tesla could never develop anywhere near this rate. High tech finance solutions are being applied to a domestic manufacturing problem. Be interesting to see if musk can follow thru
Saint Vitus
04-01-2016, 05:05 PM
I'm not sure if anyone here saw/read this article and added any comments based upon it, but it's a very sobering read:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tesla-hype-20160401-snap-htmlstory.html
MikeD
04-01-2016, 05:08 PM
I'm impressed with what Tesla has accomplished. Building a competitive car is a huge undertaking. If I had a garage to charge it in I would buy one.
As a city dweller who parks on the street, I will be waiting until the charging station network improves. It will happen. When gasoline engines were new locating fuel must have been a challenge!
I don't think it will happen. Battery powered cars take too long to charge and have a limited range. Some form of fuel cell where you can fill up at the gas station is ideal. Hybrids are the best technology for a reasonable cost for now.
kitsnob
04-01-2016, 06:44 PM
The interior though could have been improved. BMW 5 or 7 series pricing, but with Acura TL interior. If that matters to you.
.
A lot of my clients have the same sentiment .... The interior is NOT a 100K car interior.
The technology YES ... the interior NO.
kitsnob
04-01-2016, 06:49 PM
Curious about the bike toting options in this thing. Can the back seats fold down to make space to lay a bike down? Can you add a hitch mounted rack? Is that totally blasphemous?
It works in a Model S .. should work here too but then again you could always just get a sea sucker rack .... works on ALL my cars - including my ICE (MB SLK 300 W172) and my FULL electric Fiat 500E
https://www.seasucker.com/
MikeD
04-01-2016, 08:37 PM
Your maintence costs factored in owning 25 years are nil on a yearly base
I don't understand this statement. You expect the battery to last 25 years? Tires? Brakes?
summilux
04-01-2016, 08:53 PM
I wonder what the handling is going to be like? If it matches the aggressive looks, you could have a real winner here. It might even be fun to track.
SoCalSteve
04-01-2016, 09:33 PM
Saw one today being filmed driving down the long driveway outside my condo building in Marina Del Rey ( with camera cars, police escort, etc ). Except for the lack of a grill in the front, it looked really awesome!
Not that I'd ever buy the one. I really hate driving and find it incredibly boring. The only way I can stomach it is to own cars that have a manual transmission. Considering the Tesla only has 2 gears ( one forward and one reverse ), it's not my cup of tea...
I am pretty happy with my 3 series sportswagon. 37 mi/gal and less than $50K price tag.
Ken Robb
04-01-2016, 09:52 PM
Saw one today being filmed driving down the long driveway outside my condo building in Marina Del Rey ( with camera cars, police escort, etc ). Except for the lack of a grill in the front, it looked really awesome!
Not that I'd ever buy the one. I really hate driving and find it incredibly boring. The only way I can stomach it is to own cars that have a manual transmission. Considering the Tesla only has 2 gears ( one forward and one reverse ), it's not my cup of tea...
So, you sold your Porsche?
SoCalSteve
04-01-2016, 10:07 PM
So, you sold your Porsche?
My Porsche has a 7 speed manual transmission. Can't imagine selling it anytime soon.
Ken Robb
04-01-2016, 10:48 PM
My Porsche has a 7 speed manual transmission. Can't imagine selling it anytime soon.
It was " I really hate driving and find it incredibly boring" that made me wonder. :)
SoCalSteve
04-01-2016, 11:09 PM
It was " I really hate driving and find it incredibly boring" that made me wonder. :)
Hence, the Porsche...takes some of the sting out of driving...:beer:
Polyglot
04-01-2016, 11:50 PM
I recently purchased a used BMW i3 REX (registered in April 2015 with 15K miles) and it is absolutely wonderful and suits my needs to perfection. While it does not have the same electric range of the model 3, it has sufficient range for anything that I regularly travel. Indeed since purchasing it I have only once used the range extender, for less than 5 miles out of the first 600 miles driven. All the rest were done with pure electric. The i3 is more efficient than the Tesla, indeed it is the most efficient car sold in the US right now. It has a carbon frame and light weight. It fits 4 passengers much more comfortably than a 3-series BMW or a BMW X-1. It will supposedly out-accelerate a BMW M3 up to 30 mph and has virtually roll-less cornering. If I were so inclined, I could readily code the car to the European specs which would allow one to drive with unlimited REX-supplemented range but I don't need it. It fits my daughter's upright base and can also fit 2 bikes inside. The finish is very good, even if somewhat quirky. Plus no waiting list and best of all a very appealing price (well below the price of a model 3, even after the tax rebate). Around town it will outrun almost anything that you can find. It doesn't have much top end above 60 mph, but up to that it has all the torque and power that is needed. I still haven't got around to install the quick charger in my garage and it is always fully charged in the morning. When the charger is installed I'll be able to recharge in 3 hours without use of the REX. If I then use one of the DC fast chargers, the charge time is about the same as it takes my family to refuel and take a bathroom break with our ICE.
flydhest
04-02-2016, 03:16 AM
Polyglot, those look interesting. On the price, though, BMW's website says they are $46k new.
palincss
04-02-2016, 06:14 AM
It even looks like a Jetta Wagen. Who is interested?
And where would you put the bike? This is no Tesla Model S, even though the design looks like it was meant to have a hatch. That wee little trunk opening wouldn't let you fit in a wheel (well, except for a Moulton) never mind a bike.
palincss
04-02-2016, 06:19 AM
Curious about the bike toting options in this thing. Can the back seats fold down to make space to lay a bike down? Can you add a hitch mounted rack? Is that totally blasphemous?
http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--K29CsaCX--/mqawynhaiwvpwzp3alp0.jpg
http://jalopnik.com/this-is-the-tesla-model-3s-biggest-design-fail-1768467573
terry
04-02-2016, 07:06 AM
The horror of it all-a car that doesn't make noise. One of life's little pleasures is the sound of a flat 6 Porsche, V12 Ferrati or big American V8 muscle. What's next-self driving cars? Not in my lifetime.
livingminimal
04-02-2016, 07:30 AM
The horror of it all-a car that doesn't make noise. One of life's little pleasures is the sound of a flat 6 Porsche, V12 Ferrati or big American V8 muscle. What's next-self driving cars? Not in my lifetime.
We should keep relying on a diminishing, earth-destroying resource which makes us dependent on foreign governments, often authoritarian, war-torn and full of strife with questionable human rights practices, all so you can hear a noise.
terry
04-02-2016, 07:53 AM
Glad someone agrees with me.
soulspinner
04-02-2016, 08:04 AM
^^:crap: Sometimes you do things that cost a little more, because they are the right things to do. I pay extra for my electric bill to ensure that it's sourced from clean, renewable sources. My religious bro in law, who pays 10% of his income to his church, once mocked me. I told him that it was my tithing, and that the environment is my equivalent of his church. Funny how nobody ever calcs a payback for those types of things.
And one of my primary reasons is to give the middle finger solute to oil producing nations that aren't the US. Someone please calc the value of less dependence on Mid East oil.
Mock away...
No Mock at all. Im with ya.
dancinkozmo
04-02-2016, 08:22 AM
We should keep relying on a diminishing, earth-destroying resource which makes us dependent on foreign governments, often authoritarian, war-torn and full of strife with questionable human rights practices, all so you can hear a noise.
i agree wrt the environmental stuff, but the US is pretty much oil independent due to shale oil/fracking.
velomonkey
04-02-2016, 08:27 AM
The horror of it all-a car that doesn't make noise. One of life's little pleasures is the sound of a flat 6 Porsche, V12 Ferrati or big American V8 muscle. What's next-self driving cars? Not in my lifetime.
Having driven those cars I can tell you, with certitude, that one one of life's little pleasures is also stomping on the accelorator of a tesla in ludicrous mode.
palincss
04-02-2016, 08:30 AM
The horror of it all-a car that doesn't make noise. One of life's little pleasures is the sound of a flat 6 Porsche, V12 Ferrati or big American V8 muscle. What's next-self driving cars? Not in my lifetime.
Unless you're already suffering from a terminal illness or are planning to pull the pin when it happens, you're certain to be wrong about not seeing autonomous vehicles in your lifetime. I too harbour grave doubts about them -- for one thing, they depend on super accurate maps, and in my experience there are far too many errors in maps to make this universally practical.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/files/2016/03/Exchange_Not_the_Real_Rushmore-00efc.jpg&w=1484
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/03/31/using-google-maps-may-reduce-the-amount-of-grey-matter-in-your-brain/
However, to some limited extent they are here already, and their use will only spread. How quickly? Probably faster than I'd like and not nearly as fast as the enthusiasts believe. (Flying cars, anyone?)
As for lack of noise, that's no joke, especially not for us.
velomonkey
04-02-2016, 08:30 AM
I am pretty happy with my 3 series sportswagon. 37 mi/gal and less than $50K price tag.
I have a 530 and in the next 2 or 3 years it's either an old 535 wagon (but those now and getting old at 2011 being the last year) or the 328d wagon. The 3.0 inline 6 was BMWs best engine - I get 31 on the highway with plenty of pep. I'm 6'3" so I like the 5 series, but given I probably really won't put anyone in the back the 3 series should work. My parents and a buddy have the X5d and gotta say that is a really great car - the milage does considerably better than my wife's XC90.
AJM100
04-02-2016, 08:33 AM
The horror of it all-a car that doesn't make noise. One of life's little pleasures is the sound of a flat 6 Porsche, V12 Ferrati or big American V8 muscle. What's next-self driving cars? Not in my lifetime.
Actually there is an "app" for that as they say . . . I believe there are companies/software that will create a "growl" to your liking for an otherwise silent car . . . oh the humanity of it all . . .
fkelly
04-02-2016, 08:35 AM
The real game changer will be when somebody – are you listening, Tesla? – comes up with a standardized replaceable battery pack that can be swapped in a minute at a battery service station, like on electric power tools.
Pull out discharged and and push in charged.
Yeah, I wonder about this too. It obviously won't work with the Tesla design and batteries built into the floor of the car. And it would take standardization of batteries. but ...
How about having the battery recharge center located out at a solar park so they could be recharged directly from solar power. Then trucked in (by an electric truck of course) to gas stations doubling as battery swap stations. Have the exchange of batteries be automated ... you just pull in to an exchange point and a machine swaps the old one out and puts the recharged one in. Have the cost be equivalent to a tank of gas and have it take < 5 minutes. Have the recharge stations (those located at gas stations) be modular so that virtually any gas stations could install one without requiring construction or taking much space.
From what I'm reading, those waiting for the next generation of battery technology are whistling into the wind. It's at least 10 years out. And recharging batteries from electricity generated by coal powered plants is defeating a good part of the purpose of having electric cars in the first place. The recharge station solution would resolve a lot of these issues.
Gsinill
04-02-2016, 08:52 AM
The real game changer will be when somebody – are you listening, Tesla? – comes up with a standardized replaceable battery pack that can be swapped in a minute at a battery service station, like on electric power tools.
Pull out discharged and and push in charged.
Tried and failed miserably, i.e. burning almost B1$:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place
OtayBW
04-02-2016, 09:23 AM
Unless you're already suffering from a terminal illness or are planning to pull the pin when it happens, you're certain to be wrong about not seeing autonomous vehicles in your lifetime. I too harbour grave doubts about them -- for one thing, they depend on super accurate maps, and in my experience there are far too many errors in maps to make this universally practical.Hell - I don't even like anti-lock brakes!
fkelly
04-02-2016, 10:02 AM
"Tried and failed miserably, i.e. burning almost B1$:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place"
Just an idea before its time and poorly implemented. Sounds like they should have focused on one location (say Israel) and made a success of that before branching out to China, Australia, U.S. and elsewhere. Or even a couple of carefully chosen locations (add in Silicon valley for instance).
5 minutes to replace a battery at a cost competitive with gas sounds very attractive. One other attractive aspect the Wikipedia article points out is that batteries can be recharged during off-peak hours, which might make the concept feasible and "green" even where energy is generated from fossil fuels.
:DWe should keep relying on a diminishing, earth-destroying resource which makes us dependent on foreign governments, often authoritarian, war-torn and full of strife with questionable human rights practices, all so you can hear a noise.
It's the main draw of the Harley Davidson.:D
Ken Robb
04-02-2016, 11:27 AM
:D
It's the main draw of the Harley Davidson.:D
Well, that and the smell of leakin engine oil burning on the exhaust system. :D
palincss
04-02-2016, 12:04 PM
I have a 530 and in the next 2 or 3 years it's either an old 535 wagon (but those now and getting old at 2011 being the last year) or the 328d wagon. The 3.0 inline 6 was BMWs best engine - I get 31 on the highway with plenty of pep. I'm 6'3" so I like the 5 series, but given I probably really won't put anyone in the back the 3 series should work. My parents and a buddy have the X5d and gotta say that is a really great car - the milage does considerably better than my wife's XC90.
A current 3 series wagon definitely fits a bike (59-60cm, full fenders) with both wheels on. I did have a bit of trouble with the idea of a $50,000 car that did worse on the small overlap crash test than the Chevrolet Spark, though. I mean, really.
palincss
04-02-2016, 12:06 PM
Well, that and the smell of leakin engine oil burning on the exhaust system. :D
And the fact that when you buy a Harley you get a social life included at no extra charge.
livingminimal
04-02-2016, 12:56 PM
i agree wrt the environmental stuff, but the US is pretty much oil independent due to shale oil/fracking.
Not entirely, and even if that is the case, fracking is ···· too, and regardless of any of that, we have a goddamn fireball in space that is an insanely efficient producer of energy whose process of harvesting and producing useable electricity likely is much more environmentally friendly and will probably outlast this friendly reminder on our oil supplies:
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6
Domestic or foreign, the fact that we continue to rely so heavily on fossil fuels is mind-boggling.
dancinkozmo
04-02-2016, 12:56 PM
And the fact that when you buy a Harley you get a social life included at no extra charge.
free chlamydia !! yay !!!
93legendti
04-02-2016, 02:46 PM
Tried and failed miserably, i.e. burning almost B1$:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place
Yup. You beat me too it. $20,000 car. In a small country with a population that mostly lives in 3 large cities, where you can drive the length of the country in 8 hours and the width of the county in 90 minutes or less.
I saw several Better Place charging stations in the sparsely populated North. Near Rosh Pina and Tzfat, if memelry serves.
The concept was a car that was cheaper than a gas car and swapping batteries was no slower than filling with gas-to quickly swap battery for a charged battery, like exchanging a sent propane tank for a BBQ.
Still can't make those batteries green. And in the end, the entire package is still more harmful than dreaded, big, bad gas cars.
93legendti
04-02-2016, 02:49 PM
i agree wrt the environmental stuff, but the US is pretty much oil independent due to shale oil/fracking.
"In 2015, about 24% of the petroleum consumed by the United States was imported from foreign countries, the lowest level since 1970."
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6
The oil import/export thing is Obama putting the hurt* on Putin, very successfully as it goes - notice that he's not done to the Ukraine what he did to Chechnya.
It doesn't change the reality, which is that a) fossil fuels are running out and b) burning them isn't doing any of us any good, so it's probably an idea to look at alternatives sooner rather than later.
Note- I own a highly modified performance car, I love the engineering that goes into combustion engined vehicles and I enjoy driving them.
However, If the Tesla 3 had an estate version I'd likely have put a deposit down.
*Did I use this American idiom correctly?
93legendti
04-02-2016, 03:44 PM
Fossils fuels have been "running out" since the 50's....even as we find more fossil fuels every year.
oldpotatoe
04-02-2016, 05:34 PM
Not entirely, and even if that is the case, fracking is ���� too, and regardless of any of that, we have a goddamn fireball in space that is an insanely efficient producer of energy whose process of harvesting and producing useable electricity likely is much more environmentally friendly and will probably outlast this friendly reminder on our oil supplies:
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6
Domestic or foreign, the fact that we continue to rely so heavily on fossil fuels is mind-boggling.
Cuz it's cheap. People vote with their wallet. We'll get nervous when it's scarce. And expensive.
Polyglot
04-02-2016, 05:37 PM
Polyglot, those look interesting. On the price, though, BMW's website says they are $46k new.
The list price does indeed start at $46K new, but I bought an 11-month old one for half the list price with no sales tax (NJ exempts all ZEV's from sales tax, ie. a savings of $2500 in my case). Still has 3 years of full service from BMW. if you buy a new one, you should be able to haggle about $6K off the list price and then add in the tax credit of $7,500. Dynamically, I prefer the BMW to the other options.
Ken Robb
04-02-2016, 05:52 PM
I'm not sure if anyone here saw/read this article and added any comments based upon it, but it's a very sobering read:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tesla-hype-20160401-snap-htmlstory.html
So the deposit money is on the books as an on-demand loan. I think that means if Tesla runs out of cash the would-be buyers lose their money. It is not like a deposit on a real estate purchase where the $$ is held in an escrow or trust account that the seller can't get until the deal is done.
If Tesla continues losing money you don't want to wait too long to get your deposit refunded or there may not be any money left.
jlwdm
04-02-2016, 06:02 PM
...
If Tesla continues losing money you don't want to wait too long to get your deposit refunded or there may not be any money left.
The deposit is not a significant amount of money though. Just $1000.
Jeff
Ken Robb
04-02-2016, 06:24 PM
The deposit is not a significant amount of money though. Just $1000.
Jeff
"It's not about the money. It's the principal of the thing." :D
zmudshark
04-02-2016, 07:06 PM
"In 2015, about 24% of the petroleum consumed by the United States was imported from foreign countries, the lowest level since 1970."
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6Thanks, Obama ;)
gemship
04-02-2016, 07:07 PM
Till we figure out a way of making cleaner electricity and batteries then it's just a feel good thing. Heck I think the manufacturing of those two plus everything else is so much worse than people driving fossil fuel cars.
GonaSovereign
04-02-2016, 07:09 PM
The oil import/export thing is Obama putting the hurt* on Putin, very successfully as it goes - notice that he's not done to the Ukraine what he did to Chechnya.
It doesn't change the reality, which is that a) fossil fuels are running out and b) burning them isn't doing any of us any good, so it's probably an idea to look at alternatives sooner rather than later.
Note- I own a highly modified performance car, I love the engineering that goes into combustion engined vehicles and I enjoy driving them.
However, If the Tesla 3 had an estate version I'd likely have put a deposit down.
*Did I use this American idiom correctly?
You did, and all was 'murcan until you called it an estate instead of a wagon. But I'm a Canuck, so don't trust me.
BTW: I would love to see the estate version as well.
93legendti
04-02-2016, 08:16 PM
Maybe if you have oil derangement syndrome, you might think electric cars are the free lunch of free lunches.
Nationally, the electric grid probably gets 40% of its energy from coal. I don't care if you live in a 100% free coal state, the car will probably leave the state at some time...and there are 49 other states-not to mention a big world out there. China builds new coal plants every month.
Electric cars are dirtier to produce, the batteries have many toxins and disposal of them is very tricky.
"We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or "grid average electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline."
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18490.full
"A battery-powered car recharged with electricity generated by coal-fired power stations, it found, is likely to cause more than three times as many deaths from pollution as a conventional petrol-driven vehicle. Even a battery car running on the average mix of electrical power generated in America is much more hazardous than the conventional alternative."
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21636715-why-electric-car-may-be-much-dirtier-petrol-one-cleaner-what
"The quick answer: If current trends hold, it could be pretty darn green in the long run. But as of today, the calculation isn't as straightforward as you might think. Depending on whom you ask, what assumptions you make, and how you quantify environmental impact, the answer could range from greener than a Prius to as dirty as an SUV. And where the Tesla falls on that spectrum depends to a surprising extent on where you live and how much you drive it...
So if you're going to stack a Tesla's per-mile emissions against those of a gas-powered vehicle, you'll need to start by looking at the composition of the electrical grid. Nationally, the grid is roughly 40 percent coal, 25 percent natural gas, 20 percent nuclear power, and about 10 percent renewable sources, led by hydroelectricity. So it's fair to say that your average Tesla is powered in large part by burning fossil fuels...
Second, electric vehicles are more environmentally destructive to manufacture, starting with the energy required to produce their lithium-ion batteries. Those battery packs today are big, bulky, and extremely expensive to manufacture, specially Tesla's, which is larger and more powerful than that of its competitors. And many electric-vehicle batteries contain rare-earth minerals that are hard to come by and costly to extract. The Tesla's AC induction motors don't use rare-earth magnets, but even the company's engineers would admit that the Model S takes more energy to produce than, say, a Toyota Camry."
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/09/how_green_is_a_tesla_electric_cars_environmental_i mpact_depends_on_where.2.html
Polyglot
04-03-2016, 12:24 AM
Why I went with a BMW i3: it is produced in a factory that uses exclusively renewable energy. Its carbon footprint over the full lifespan of the car (including producing and disposing of the batteries) is deemed to be 30 to 50% of that of a comparable traditional car (certified by the German federal TUV). It is officially the most efficient car on the market right now according to the EPA. It fulfills all of my needs. I live in the state of NJ and coal-fired electricity producing plants account for less than 2% of total production. No matter how you fiddle with the statistics, given these basic facts, there is no way that you will find it to not be a massive improvement on traditional cars. Compared to a Tesla, apart from the fact that the car is built by a financial sound company, it is more efficient, is produced in a cleaner factory, uses less resources to produce and maintain and run. It uses a higher percent of recycled materials... It may not be perfect but from a technological point of view it is something that you can buy and drive today. I am one who gave serious thought about putting down my money on a Tesla model 3 but the case is simply not compelling enough, especially given the vagaries of the financing of the company.
velotrack
04-03-2016, 12:30 AM
Downside to the i3 - low range. 81 miles? Eh.
Till we figure out a way of making cleaner electricity and batteries then it's just a feel good thing. Heck I think the manufacturing of those two plus everything else is so much worse than people driving fossil fuel cars.
That's kind of true- but ignores the air quality in cities issue which electric cars would resolve (albeit due to moving the pollution to power stations of fossil fuel was used for grid power).
Oxford Street in London breached its annual pollution allowance in less than 24 hours, you should wear a respirator whilst shopping.
jlwdm
04-03-2016, 04:58 AM
"It's not about the money. It's the principal of the thing." :D
Or the "principle." I am not sure what the principle is though.
Jeff
oldpotatoe
04-03-2016, 05:32 AM
Why I went with a BMW i3: it is produced in a factory that uses exclusively renewable energy. Its carbon footprint over the full lifespan of the car (including producing and disposing of the batteries) is deemed to be 30 to 50% of that of a comparable traditional car (certified by the German federal TUV). It is officially the most efficient car on the market right now according to the EPA. It fulfills all of my needs. I live in the state of NJ and coal-fired electricity producing plants account for less than 2% of total production. No matter how you fiddle with the statistics, given these basic facts, there is no way that you will find it to not be a massive improvement on traditional cars. Compared to a Tesla, apart from the fact that the car is built by a financial sound company, it is more efficient, is produced in a cleaner factory, uses less resources to produce and maintain and run. It uses a higher percent of recycled materials... It may not be perfect but from a technological point of view it is something that you can buy and drive today. I am one who gave serious thought about putting down my money on a Tesla model 3 but the case is simply not compelling enough, especially given the vagaries of the financing of the company.
80 some mile range? I don't drive that much but I couldn't use it to visit my mother in law(in Littleton, I'm in Boulder). Electric cars are probably the 'next great thing' in personal vehicles but the battery, it's range and how dirty it is to produce and energy production technology has to come a long way to really be 'green' and practical. But until oil becomes much more scarce and way more expensive, it's not going to happen on a large scale. No big money, no big production of electric cars.
dancinkozmo
04-03-2016, 07:52 AM
80 some mile range? I don't drive that much but I couldn't use it to visit my mother in law......
for most of us that would be considered a win
hockeybike
04-03-2016, 08:22 AM
How many of us are viewing this thread on our cell phones? What did we all think of our cell phones 25 years ago? I think that's an apt way to think of electric cars today and where they'll be in a generation. Battery tech has come a long way and likely will go a great deal farther
Maybe Tesla is just a tech demo and proof of concept, and maybe it fails, but I can't imagine that it's going to be the last or largest version of the tech.
Also, for all the pollution naysayers, CO2 via coal is an issue, yes, but coal isn't the only resource used to produce your power and even if it were equal in co2 intensity to oil from a car, the weighted average co2 intensity once you throw in Nat gas, nuclear, hydro, etc is lower. Moreover. The nom-CO2 pollution is contained in one usually less populated area--less smog, soot, etc from cars in more heavily populated areas.
All that said, poo poo away. Criticism drives change! 81 miles isn't good enough--let's see 82 and beyond at lower cost, now!
dancinkozmo
04-03-2016, 09:03 AM
next gen nissan leaf is supposed to get 150 miles per charge...will that end range anxiety or just set the bar higher ?
Ken Robb
04-03-2016, 11:57 AM
Or the "principle." I am not sure what the principle is though.
Jeff
principal=financial=attempt at satire. ;)
shovelhd
04-03-2016, 12:00 PM
next gen nissan leaf is supposed to get 150 miles per charge...will that end range anxiety or just set the bar higher ?
Still won't work for me. 300 miles, now you're talking.
gomango
04-03-2016, 12:23 PM
Still won't work for me. 300 miles, now you're talking.
Same here.
Our cabin is on the Canadian border, near Ely, Mn.
If I can't make it on a single charge, it's a deal breaker.
Our Honda Fit makes it on far less than a tank, so that's the standard for us.
malcolm
04-03-2016, 12:35 PM
Fossils fuels have been "running out" since the 50's....even as we find more fossil fuels every year.
You should watch this. The above thinking is dangerous when related to things that have a definite end. Yes we always seem to find more but even the newly found shale fields that we can't efficiently harvest by the way have an end and while we do find more we also have more of us finding more ways to use the resource we don't have enough of.
Especially look at exponential function and doubling time.
http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy_video1.html
oldpotatoe
04-03-2016, 12:39 PM
for most of us that would be considered a win
You don't know the half of it. If buying the BMW meant I didn't have to go, I'd buy one..:D
malcolm
04-03-2016, 12:39 PM
I'll go ahead an add in advance that I'm not saying electric is the answer as I know much of it comes from coal. What I am saying is continuing in the current manner is flirting with disaster.
All new tech is expensive, cumbersome and will face hiccups so is the answer to do nothing and just forge ahead with what you know is doomed, maybe not in your lifetime but eventually?
I say kudos to Tesla at least they are trying to throw off the millstone of oil and I don't begrudge them their profits.
oldpotatoe
04-03-2016, 12:41 PM
next gen nissan leaf is supposed to get 150 miles per charge...will that end range anxiety or just set the bar higher ?
Coupled with any range is knowing there is some way to charge the thing when ya get there. That isn't any sort of given yet.
dvancleve
04-03-2016, 07:34 PM
My wife thinks we should put a deposit on a Model 3. I'm torn, if it's refundable there's really no downside. However, there are so many deposits now that the tax credits will undoubtedly be gone before everybody gets one and there's no telling when the car will actually be available…
A Tesla or any other electric could not be our only car, my wife frequently drives fairly long trips. MOTOH, 200 miles would last me a week or two most of the time and I don't usually drive further than 200 miles at a crack.
I am pretty curiousabout/interested in the Chevy Bolt as well. My wife doesn't like it at all. Close minded, doesn't care about the details or any logical arguments. The plus of the Bolt (Imthink) is that there will be federal tax credits available on it for quite a while, so for many people it will be cheaper than a Tesla model three.
Doug
peanutgallery
04-03-2016, 07:55 PM
I think that by the time the model 3 actually gets to market and tesla overcomes all the hurdles to make it happen the market will shift or a bigger player will steal the moment
Its a technology company not a car company. Marketing only gets you so far
Think cannondale and dirt bikes
rwsaunders
04-03-2016, 07:56 PM
This is an excerpt from an October 2015 Consumer Guide review of the Tesla Model S, with a link to the complete review below. Note that this was posted months before the current deposit offering.
"The real problem may be down the road, when Tesla migrates its technology from the $127,000 P85D down to the $35,000 Model 3, which it says will be launched in about two years. And there is also the concern about the cost to consumers once their Model S warranties expire.
It’s one thing to have a quirky, problematic car that sells 20,000 units per year to wealthy people who probably own at least one backup vehicle. It’s quite another when Tesla scales up to its 2020 projection of 200,000 U.S. Model 3 buyers, who may not have the luxury of being so forgiving."
http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance
I haven't read the fine print regarding the refundable deposit, but what happens if Tesla files for protection?
93legendti
04-03-2016, 08:13 PM
$1 billion in funding. Partner with Renault. Charging stations next to off ramps and gas stations. Hundreds of public electrical outlets...robots were installed at dozens of service stations that could extract the used battery from underneath the car and replace it with a fresh one in about five minutes. The idea was to put an end to so-called range anxiety, which has long been offered as an explanation for why electric cars have failed to catch on with consumers. With the Better Place network, a driver could easily navigate from, say, Tel Aviv to the resort town of Eilat, a little over 200 miles away, with only 15 minutes or so in stops.
1,500 cars sold.
http://www.fastcompany.com/3028159/a-broken-place-better-place
soulspinner
04-04-2016, 06:06 AM
$1 billion in funding. Partner with Renault. Charging stations next to off ramps and gas stations. Hundreds of public electrical outlets...robots were installed at dozens of service stations that could extract the used battery from underneath the car and replace it with a fresh one in about five minutes. The idea was to put an end to so-called range anxiety, which has long been offered as an explanation for why electric cars have failed to catch on with consumers. With the Better Place network, a driver could easily navigate from, say, Tel Aviv to the resort town of Eilat, a little over 200 miles away, with only 15 minutes or so in stops.
1,500 cars sold.
http://www.fastcompany.com/3028159/a-broken-place-better-place
Our big Volvo Hybrid is 2.5 hours to total recharge with 240, 7 hours with a regular 110 outlet. I need at least 250 miles in range but aside that as a road car the batteries(there are lots of cells) need to charge a lot faster, especially with no small gas engine (all electric).
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