Milano-Sanremo - Discussion, Picks, *Spoilers*

[MattTuck]

Testing out whether separate threads will work better (as had been suggested in the other thread).


http://www.cyclingfans.net/2015/images/2015_milan_san_remo_route_map.jpg

http://www.cyclingfans.net/2015/images/2015_milan_san_remo_profile.jpg


Start List here. (http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163615&c=3)

Watched Strade Bianche again on the trainer last night. Puccio is one that might surprise...

[FlashUNC]

ABS.

That'll make me happy.

Realistic guess: Nibali.

Semi-serious Dark Horse: Rui Costa.

Total joke Dark Horse: Rebellin.

My Secret Crush Wish: Ian Stannard.

[nooneline]

San Remo - always so easy to pick a handful of Top Five riders, but so hard to pick the winner.

Sagan, Cancellara, and Stybar are likely to factor and place; Kristoff and Matthews both an obvious threat. I'd love to see Kwiatkowski with a shot at the victory. But if I had to pick, I'd pick Van Avermaet - and the most likely scenario is him against Sagan, Matthews, and a few threatening wild cards.

GVA has always been in the mix but usually launches the wrong attack. Right now it looks like he's both stronger and smarter than he's ever been. He's got the attack, the stay-away, and the bunch sprint abilities that San Remo requires: forming a small/midsized group on the Poggio, driving it a bit to stay away from the larger pack with the bigger sprinters, and then outsprinting your companions.

but again - MSR is so hard to pick a winner for...

It's easier to pick likely losers - Nibali will launch another doomed attack between the Cipressa and the Poggio. I don't think we'll see EBH factor despite him being much-lauded this spring; I wouldn't be surprised to see Demare with a decent result (top ten?). I think we'll see an Italian sprinter with a decent results, Bonifazio or Cobrelli. I'm hoping that Bouhani underperforms as usual. You can't discount any of Sky's all-stars but hard to say that any are a fav for the win. I think LottoNL will be pretty quiet though I'd love to be proven wrong.

[GregL]

Kristoff for the repeat win. He's a fast finisher who can get over the climbs. Cancellara will be there at the finish, but everyone knows his one trick and they will keep him in check. Sagan will be there too, but he'll be marked very closely.

- Greg

[MattTuck]

Here are the betting odds to help with your picks.

Edit: that screen capture was useless. Here's the top picks, according to this site. (http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/milan---san-remo)

[ceolwulf]

Anyone except Bouhanni.

Would love to see Gaviria do it. My money (figuratively) is on GvA though now that he has figured out how to win.

[thegunner]

Anyone except Bouhanni.

:beer:

[echappist]

Classicomano Luigi over Kristoff. Paolini played a vital part shepherding and leading out Kristoff, and i don't see anyone else on that team with the nous to fill those shoes.

Classicomano can also put in a good sprint, and i'd bet he'll win sprinting on the hoods, no less

Classicomano Luigi, Matthews, Kristoff
GvA and Sagan

edit: EBH in, Sagan out

[pinoymamba]

cancellera, sagan, matthews, gaviria (he might be too green for a race this length), or gerrans (if he isn't getting a free ride)

[guido]

Cancellara

[kramnnim]

GVA. :crap:

[climbgdh]

Rooting for Spartacus.

[MattTuck]

Classicomano Luigi over Kristoff. Paolini played a vital part shepherding and leading out Kristoff, and i don't see anyone else on that team with the nous to fill those shoes.

Classicomano can also put in a good sprint, and i'd bet he'll win sprinting on the hoods, no less

Classicomano Luigi, Matthews, Kristoff
GvA and Sagan

edit: EBH in, Sagan out

Paolini was (is?) so good. Is he officially retired? I kind of agree.

Knowing the danger of Kristoff, and perhaps suspecting that he'll be weakened without his lieutenant, the lighter guys will probably try to push the pace as much as possible on the climbs. Last year, Kristoff looked a little haggard hanging out at the back of the Peloton... until Paolini brought him to the front. Hard to tell if that was the plan or not.

[DfCas]

It will be televised Monday 8 or 8:30 AM on bein sports, so I set the DVR.

[JStonebarger]

With the odds posted above I'd put money on Cancellara or even Stybar.

[jlwdm]

It will be televised Monday 8 or 8:30 AM on bein sports, so I set the DVR.

Thanks. 7:00 CDT. At least this race is on the Bein Sports channel I get.

Jeff

[livingminimal]

Are we doing the usual format? Our podium and our darkhorses? Or has the classics pick game totally gone astray?

1. Sagan (goes on the VR)
2. Cav
3. Kristoff

WC:
Gavriva
Sam Bennett

[echappist]

Thanks. 7:00 CDT. At least this race is on the Bein Sports channel I get.

Jeff

that's more than 24 hours after the finish of the race.

[MattTuck]

that's more than 24 hours after the finish of the race.

You mean to tell me, that you want to watch the race on the same day that it happens? Next you'll be telling me you want to watch it live. :rolleyes:

[MattTuck]

Also, http://cyclocosm.com/ now has the MSR Recon Ride up. It is Cosmo and Dane Cash talking about the race.

[fa63]

If I was a betting man, I would have to go with Michael Matthews.

[MattTuck]

1. Cancellara
2. Greg Van Avermaet
3. Nibali (love that this guys lines up for GC in the Grand Tours and in one day monuments)

WC: Jens Debusschere
WC: Matthews

This means, almost with 100% certainty, that Kristoff or Sagan will win.

[denapista]

Watching a race on Monday that was live on Saturday is pure self torture... Why would you do that to yourself? You have to stay away from the internet the entire weekend. Good luck with that.. hahaha

[MattTuck]

Ahhh, another edition of Milano-Sanremo with some sort land slide or other problem that alters the route. :p

[oldpotatoe]

On right NOW!!

http://cyclinghub.tv/livestream#sthash.GmwJAbC1.54hahAy9.dpbs

[bobswire]

On right NOW!!

http://cyclinghub.tv/livestream#sthash.GmwJAbC1.54hahAy9.dpbs

Yep, watching it as you spoke using another stream. http://www.fixalen.tv/20150920/vv-1148850--55fe4e223aab74.58368226.html

[MattTuck]

I'm going to be really interested in how Katusha plays it this year. Watched last year's version last night on the trainer, Kristoff looked to be suffering on the Cipressa. Then Paolini gives him a pep talk, they go to the front, and Paolini (with Kristoff on his wheel) makes pace up the Poggio for like half of it. Then Kristoff does the longest sprint ever (perhaps because Paolini pulled off too early?)...

Seems like a bit of wasted effort.

Then, on the other hand... Thomas did a ton of extra work. I bet Thomas would have won it if he had played it slightly differently.

[weisan]

are you fk'ing kiddin' me??!!!

Stay the hell away from my boy if you gonna crash or do sumthin' stupid near the end...

[kramnnim]

Wow.

[Lovetoclimb]

strange how Gaviria went down. Looked like it was on a straight stretch but my video feed was not clear enough to see it.

As an aside, why was the raced not called by Kirby and Kelley? Seems like they are the Eurosport commentators for all the big ones.

[MattTuck]

Well, that was interesting.

Lucky that crash didn't take out more people.


My early season prognostication of Colbrelli didn't come through, though he was top 10.

[chengher87]

Wish they'd do a slow mo of the crash. Hard to see what actually happened with the trees obscuring the view at full speed.

[guido]

Wild finish. All the big players bid, and loose.

[FlashUNC]

I'm just gonna blame Sagan for that crash.

Which, hey, mission accomplished. ABS.

[MattTuck]

strange how Gaviria went down. Looked like it was on a straight stretch but my video feed was not clear enough to see it.

As an aside, why was the raced not called by Kirby and Kelley? Seems like they are the Eurosport commentators for all the big ones.

Maybe something to do with their other commentating schedule? TA vs. PN?

This is the team that did MSR last year. Rob Hatch and Bryan Smithy I think?

[kramnnim]

Kirby+Kelly might be doing la Volta.

[kramnnim]

Maybe something to do with their other commentating schedule? TA vs. PN?

This is the team that did MSR last year. Rob Hatch and Bryan Smithy I think?

It's Matt Stephens, not Rob.

[jdp211]

Looking at the crash on replay, it looks like EBH was coming across the road with GVA on his wheel and Gaviria's front got swept out by GVA's rear. In mind its a matter of 'protect your front wheel.' GVA wasn't deviating from a line, just following the curve of the road.

[bobswire]

Looking at the crash on replay, it looks like EBH was coming across the road with GVA on his wheel and Gaviria's front got swept out by GVA's rear. In mind its a matter of 'protect your front wheel.' GVA wasn't deviating from a line, just following the curve of the road.

And Sagans skills kept him upright but out of contention.

[pinoymamba]

https://streamable.com/bu0z



I'm gutted... Gaviria would of left everyone in the dust. Sagan would of came in second...

[jpw]

strange how Gaviria went down. Looked like it was on a straight stretch but my video feed was not clear enough to see it.

As an aside, why was the raced not called by Kirby and Kelley? Seems like they are the Eurosport commentators for all the big ones.

a slight right side 'knuckle' (not really a bend) and it created a slight movement of the riders to the left. Gav stayed straighter through the knuckle but a rider to his front and right moved slightly left and i think clipped Gaviria's front wheel. i'm not sure though if it might have been a pedal touch. difficult to tell for sure. he was unlucky.

Swift was also a little unlucky. he had to brake a little due to the crash and lost momentum. 2nd is still good after 3rd two years ago. clearly he has the attributes for this race. 1st is a definite possibility.

[jpw]

Looking at the crash on replay, it looks like EBH was coming across the road with GVA on his wheel and Gaviria's front got swept out by GVA's rear. In mind its a matter of 'protect your front wheel.' GVA wasn't deviating from a line, just following the curve of the road.

i think Gav tried to straighten that knuckle/ curve for the most direct line... and paid the price. he was unlucky.

Gav, the new Cav.

[weisan]

.

[ultraman6970]

They got lucky gaviria got that stupid accident or else he was going to buff the floor with all of them IMO. He was one of my... "what if he survives the last climb?? hmm....? rider.

Bad luck, a lot of races still in the calendar. Wonder if they will put him in the next ones.

Sagan looks too big this year, the other detail is that way too many riders surviving the last climb, was really weird to me.

[GregL]

Wish they'd do a slow mo of the crash. Hard to see what actually happened with the trees obscuring the view at full speed.https://gifs.com/gif/jRLDB5

Sagan and Cancellara are awesome bike handlers!

- Greg

[thegunner]

https://gifs.com/gif/jRLDB5

Sagan and Cancellara are awesome bike handlers!

- Greg

that powerslide by canc...

[ericssonboi]

Slow motion power slide..


http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/03/news/399127_399127

[MattTuck]

I'd be doing those too, if I didn't have to pay for my own tires :p

[ceolwulf]

So Bouhanni's problem was he was stuck in the small chainring ... should've been using a 1x!

[carpediemracing]

I'm most impressed with Sagan. Not only did he look and start to react immediately, he also looked back before he moved over to try and get back into things.

Powerslides are one thing but to not have to powerslide, to me that's more impressive. In total 100% Monday morning quarterback mode, Cancellara could have gotten away without the powerslide had he flicked the bike more. I think his reaction was normal but the guy in front of him didn't brake as anyone would expect. Also Cancellara's view was obscured, so he didn't have as much info to work with.

I'm positive I'd have crashed (or at least hit Gav) if I was in Sagan's place. I don't know how I'd have done in Cancellara's place. I've also never ridden 300km at one time in my life so there's that.

I missed mentions of the small chainring thing as I haven't read much beyond the initial placings/etc. I'll have to go read now.

[moose8]

Those bike handling skills are amazing. So in a fraction of a second did they have the presence of mind to lock up the rear brake and kick the back of the bike out of the way? I love seeing stuff like that because it emphasizes how much better those guys really are. That all happened so incredibly quick.

[weisan]

I'd love to see Kwiatkowski with a shot at the victory.

Noon pal, your wish almost came true if not for Spartacus.

Post-race review of 2016 edition of MSR is not complete until Kwiatkowski is mentioned.

Other than being my most favorite classic of all, what always intrigued me about MSR is how dynamic the race is especially in the last 5k, what looks to be the "potential winner" changes hands almost every minute/km until the person crosses the line.

[mvrider]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/riders-accuse-demare-of-taking-a-tow-from-a-team-car-during-milan-san-remo/

Unlike in Nibali's case, no video or photo evidence, though.

[jpw]

now we've seen that Gav can survive the Poggio at that tempo it will be full gas up there by every other team for the next several years to drop him.

it got exciting in the finale but generally it was a little bit too stately... until Kwiatkowski went on the attack.

I also note the winning time at 6 hours 54 minutes. Cancellara won in 2008 in 7 hours 15 minutes, and yet yesterday's race was several km longer due to the rock slide. is the peloton getting ever faster, and therefore ever more stressful, and leading to more crashes?

[echappist]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/riders-accuse-demare-of-taking-a-tow-from-a-team-car-during-milan-san-remo/

Unlike in Nibali's case, no video or photo evidence, though.

Strava and Transponder evidence, apparently. Though doubtful UCI would look into this.

[Lovetoclimb]

Strava and Transponder evidence, apparently. Though doubtful UCI would look into this.

Current arguments against his legitimacy (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/demares-milan-san-remo-data-file-deleted-from-strava/)

To me it seems pretty simple to obtain the GPS speed, power, HR, et al data and cross compare (with Visconti on the attack or something) to determine if he is suspect. To actually prove if he cheated, well perhaps a fan captured it on a cell phone or something, hard to believe with all the cameras out there nobody would have seen it.

At the end of the day two separate riders corroborating the story with a suspect "now missing" data file really casts a bad shadow on a monument bike race.

[jpw]

I recall the attitude of the French cycling press and mass media towards Chris Froome during the TdF. They hanged him.

Demare is French. I wonder how hard the French media will want to scrutinise this allegation of cheating?

So Demare's data was quickly deleted, and then a new data file was uploaded? That sounds highly suspicious.

[kramnnim]

Demare's ride is back on Strava, the data shows that he was pedaling up the Cipressa. No power data, and it's possible it's data from someone else...

[MattTuck]

This sounds really unfortunate. I'm not going to pass judgement yet, but I do hope that the UCI, race jury, someone takes the time to look at the all the video and other evidence, and make a determination. From the article it sounds like they had the "we didn't see it, so it didn't happen" philosophy, and moved on.

If video evidence comes out, this will be cycling's "Maradona Hand of God" moment.

[weisan]

Thank you Demare. That's all I need to hear from you. I don't need any data.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/demare-hits-back-at-milan-san-remo-tow-allegations/

The way he responded reminds me of someone.


Guilty as charged.

:hello:

[pdmtong]

I'm most impressed with Sagan. Not only did he look and start to react immediately, he also looked back before he moved over to try and get back into things.

Powerslides are one thing but to not have to powerslide, to me that's more impressive. In total 100% Monday morning quarterback mode, Cancellara could have gotten away without the powerslide had he flicked the bike more. I think his reaction was normal but the guy in front of him didn't brake as anyone would expect. Also Cancellara's view was obscured, so he didn't have as much info to work with.

I'm positive I'd have crashed (or at least hit Gav) if I was in Sagan's place. I don't know how I'd have done in Cancellara's place. I've also never ridden 300km at one time in my life so there's that.

I missed mentions of the small chainring thing as I haven't read much beyond the initial placings/etc. I'll have to go read now.

Those bike handling skills are amazing. So in a fraction of a second did they have the presence of mind to lock up the rear brake and kick the back of the bike out of the way? I love seeing stuff like that because it emphasizes how much better those guys really are. That all happened so incredibly quick.

i have watched this again and again. is there any more to the basic move than the brake lock and back wheel throw?

yes, i get it that is in a field sprint, after 300k, going full gas shoulder to shoulder.

what I am asking is if you are riding alone down the street, what is the technique employed here?

[jpw]

i don't recall the last time pro riders came out so strongly with this type of accusation of cheating in a race. they all accept that a measure of drafting is within the spirit of a race after a tumble, and so i have to conclude that there is something to this story.

why is there no power data available?

[guido]

i don't recall the last time pro riders came out so strongly with this type of accusation of cheating in a race. they all accept that a measure of drafting is within the spirit of a race after a tumble, and so i have to conclude that there is something to this story.

why is there no power data available?

The Velonews article says that the Strava record was released...

http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/03/news/399202_399202

[kramnnim]

He doesn't have power data on any of his rides. He was faster than Visconti, who went up at 400w, and is 10kg lighter? But less than 20 seconds faster than what Greipel and Degenkolb did last year.

Seems safe to assume he had a sticky bottle, but might not have been going 80km/hr like some riders claimed.

[thegunner]

The Velonews article says that the Strava record was released...

http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/03/news/399202_399202

nah, it was *reuploaded* after it was weirdly removed.

[Jgrooms]

nah, it was *reuploaded* after it was weirdly removed.


So what? He never posts his power, most don't. The speed is the speed, reup'd makes no difference.

Short of video or official on the spot, sour grapes, and he won.

Races aren't 'won' on Strava ;-)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MattTuck]

Jgrooms is right. There's really nothing that can be done without something 100% conclusive, like a video of the incident.

I'd say that there is an etiquette to the sticky bottle/magic spanner, grabbing the door pillar... being pushed up a key hill near the end of the race is probably a violation of the 'code', even if it returns you to the group you were in before a crash. I mean, it sort of invites abuse as riders will have a 'mechanical' right before key climbs, just so they don't have to burn matches.

[FlashUNC]

i don't recall the last time pro riders came out so strongly with this type of accusation of cheating in a race. they all accept that a measure of drafting is within the spirit of a race after a tumble, and so i have to conclude that there is something to this story.

why is there no power data available?

Flip side is Michael Matthews has come out in support of him too.

So he's got his defenders too.

[pinoymamba]

I see you! Wait apparently this is not demare I apologize.

[thegunner]

So what? He never posts his power, most don't. The speed is the speed, reup'd makes no difference.

Short of video or official on the spot, sour grapes, and he won.

Races aren't 'won' on Strava ;-)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

that's not my point. i didn't say anything about power. what i was responding to the part where people were saying that the strava file was missing. there was a point where it was missing. they weren't wrong in that regards. i don't really get why you'd upload it only to delete it only to upload it again /shrug

[echappist]

Flip side is Michael Matthews has come out in support of him too.

So he's got his defenders too.

possibly because Matthews might have benefited

[FlashUNC]

possibly because Matthews might have benefited

Oh to be sure. But then I put the blame squarely on race officials if they're letting at least two guys get towed back to the main group hanging on cars.

[Jgrooms]

that's not my point. i didn't say anything about power. what i was responding to the part where people were saying that the strava file was missing. there was a point where it was missing. they weren't wrong in that regards. i don't really get why you'd upload it only to delete it only to upload it again /shrug


Its a Strava file. Since when do they have any bearing on a UCI race? Any race?

Guys post & delete rides all the time. Maybe he had his phone recording & later up loaded the G flle.

But possibly behind the grassy knoll there was a second bottle & a scooter & they passed off the Garmin while he was being towed?

One things for certain, there will be far fewer pros posting anything during a race. The mtgs w the directors have already occurred.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thegunner]

Guys post & delete rides all the time. Maybe he had his phone recording & later up loaded the G flle.

he still didn't do himself any favors with that little move, that's probably the worst part. fwiw, i'm glad demare won and that bouhanni was up in arms about his loss.

[Jgrooms]

I agree. But it shouldn't matter in the 'court' of public opinion. So is it plausible his team manipulated the data?

The speed that he was accused of isn't there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jpw]

I see you! Wait apparently this is not demare I apologize.

is this the Cipressa?

i wonder if we'll end up with a crowd sourced photographic reconstruction of Demare's ascent? everyone has a smartphone with camera.

[oldpotatoe]

i don't recall the last time pro riders came out so strongly with this type of accusation of cheating in a race. they all accept that a measure of drafting is within the spirit of a race after a tumble, and so i have to conclude that there is something to this story.

why is there no power data available?

http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/03/news/399202_399202

They are mentioning that data or strava data can be released but I agree, riders/referees don't yell about 'sticky bottles' or drafting behind motorcycles or team cars post crashes but they do complain about tows.

The data either won't be released or it'll be corrupted or somehow inconclusive.

Oppps

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/demares-milan-san-remo-data-file-deleted-from-strava

FDJ and Demare know there is no other 'proof'...

[carpediemracing]

I'm most impressed with Sagan. Not only did he look and start to react immediately, he also looked back before he moved over to try and get back into things.

Powerslides are one thing but to not have to powerslide, to me that's more impressive. In total 100% Monday morning quarterback mode, Cancellara could have gotten away without the powerslide had he flicked the bike more. I think his reaction was normal but the guy in front of him didn't brake as anyone would expect. Also Cancellara's view was obscured, so he didn't have as much info to work with.

I'm positive I'd have crashed (or at least hit Gav) if I was in Sagan's place. I don't know how I'd have done in Cancellara's place. I've also never ridden 300km at one time in my life so there's that.

i have watched this again and again. is there any more to the basic move than the brake lock and back wheel throw?

what I am asking is if you are riding alone down the street, what is the technique employed here?

I don't think I was clear enough. Sagan is the one that's amazing to me, because he didn't powerslide. He threw the bike down hard (if you want to get technical he counter steerered really, really hard, meaning he pushed the left bar forward to get the bike turning left), harder than I could imagine possible without crashing, and steered around Gav.

Cancellara did the normal powerslide thing, but, again, to be fair, he didn't have the view Sagan did. It appears Cancellara was reacting mainly to Sagan's move, a reaction that I also have a hard time comprehending because Sagan's move (incredible swerve) would be really hard to avoid if you were directly behind him.

Then, Sagan, if he hadn't done enough, actually checks to make sure he's clear before he moves back over to the right.

On a side note, kudos to whoever glued Sagan's tires.

[jpw]

Oh to be sure. But then I put the blame squarely on race officials if they're letting at least two guys get towed back to the main group hanging on cars.

this. When was the late time a winning rider was disqualified from a Monument for taking a tow?

the officials must be so relieved that so far there is no video or photo evidence to show the tow that they probably knew about but didn't have the will to do anything about at the time.

[echappist]

this. When was the late time a winning rider was disqualified from a Monument for taking a tow?

the officials must be so relieved that so far there is no video or photo evidence to show the tow that they probably knew about but didn't have the will to do anything about at the time.

i think no one expected the riders who crashed/were held up could make it to the front group and sprint for the win. in which case, they thought no harm no foul. But apparently someone did win this time, and it's only due to that fact others in the peloton are upset.

[teleguy57]

Very thoughtful article over on InnerRing (http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/)

[jpw]

Demare now just needs to win another monument to silence the doubters. easy.

[Jgrooms]

Very thoughtful article over on InnerRing (http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/)


Thanks for posting. Makes my points much better than I ever could.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MattTuck]

Demare now just needs to win another monument to silence the doubters. easy.

If he wins another one, he may have a motor IN his bike, rather than be hanging on a car. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

What happend to the Dimension Data foxtails from last year? Do they still have those? Seems that would be a source of impartial data.

[572cv]

Very thoughtful article over on InnerRing (http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/)

Thanks for posting this. Nice to read a rational, high level view on the matter.