PASSONI Road Frame

[Jeff N.]

Was watching an episode of "Billions" this evening and saw one of the main characters riding a "Passoni" carbon frame with Campy SR and Lightweight wheelset. Anyone own one of these branded frames or know much about them? How to order? -Jeff N.

[ultraman6970]

Sent you an email.

[mwynne]

I remember this feature from a few years back
http://cyclingtips.com/2012/12/bikes-of-the-bunch-passoni-titanio-puro/

[happycampyer]

If you search the archives, you will find plenty of discussion about the company and their bikes, including lots of speculation about whether they actually make their bikes or contract them out. Regardless, the bikes are exquisitely crafted--over-the-top, and very expensive. I've ridden a demo version of the Top Force, and would say that it's in the Vamoots RSL category of stiffness (of course, since the bikes are custom, you can tweak the ride quality, but given the tube profiles it's bound to be on the stiff side). Signature Cycles is a dealer.

[jpw]

If you search the archives, you will find plenty of discussion about the company and their bikes, including lots of speculation about whether they actually make their bikes or contract them out. Regardless, the bikes are exquisitely crafted--over-the-top, and very expensive. I've ridden a demo version of the Top Force, and would say that it's in the Vamoots RSL category of stiffness (of course, since the bikes are custom, you can tweak the ride quality, but given the tube profiles it's bound to be on the stiff side). Signature Cycles is a dealer.

on the speculation, where might they be being made?

[happycampyer]

on the speculation, where might they be being made?
These threads are examples where the fabrication of the frames is discussed:

http://forums.thepaceline.net/showthread.php?t=177422

http://forums.thepaceline.net/showthread.php?t=100694

At the end of the day, wherever they are made, they are among the most refined bicycles ever made, both from a manufacturing and a finishing perspective.

[ultraman6970]

Sent you another msg. Pretty much you gonna have to call them because the company belongs to an english investor now.

[Black Dog]

I think this picture of one tells us where it was made.

http://images.cyclingtips.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/MG_7134.jpg

[happycampyer]

I think this picture of one tells us where it was made.

http://images.cyclingtips.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/MG_7134.jpgYeah, I should've said "whoever" and not "wherever." Afaik they are made in Italy regardless. Beautiful frames.

[cdn_bacon]

ha. beauty photo ...ruined only by the heel rub on the crank arm.

[bobswire]

ha. beauty photo ...ruined only by the heel rub on the crank arm.

My thoughts exactly. I walk slightly pigeon toed thus I don't have heel rub on my cranks. Guys who walk a like clowns with toes pointing outward produce heel rub. Careful letting one of them ride your bike with new beautiful carbon cranks.;)

http://i65.tinypic.com/nohjep.jpg

[54ny77]

is that a brown painted clavicula?

I think this picture of one tells us where it was made.

http://images.cyclingtips.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/MG_7134.jpg

i've seen a few in person and they are, in a word, stunning. so is the price.

[ultraman6970]

Even the forks in some models are made of titanium, like 1 piece of titanium, no seams, no nothing, not even tell their handlebar and stem combos, just 1 piece.

[RedRider]

All Passoni frames are made in Milan, Italy. They have been around for over 30 years and are considered at the top of the field for custom steel. ti and carbon.
Their website almost blew up after the Billions episode! http://www.passoni.it/
A few models have been in our shop and we are going to be a dealer.

[Jeff N.]

All Passoni frames are made in Milan, Italy. They have been around for over 30 years and are considered at the top of the field for custom steel. ti and carbon.
Their website almost blew up after the Billions episode! http://www.passoni.it/
A few models have been in our shop and we are going to be a dealer.

If you're going to be a dealer, I'd appreciate it if you'd get back to me with ordering info...when you have it, of course. Thanks! -Jeff

[ultraman6970]

Whats the billions episode???, what do you mean?

All Passoni frames are made in Milan, Italy. They have been around for over 30 years and are considered at the top of the field for custom steel. ti and carbon.
Their website almost blew up after the Billions episode! http://www.passoni.it/
A few models have been in our shop and we are going to be a dealer.

[radsmd]

Saw a female rider on a Ti/carbon Passoni last year while riding through Del Mar. Struck up a conversation and found out she had made a trip to Italy to get fitted for it and had it sent here to the US. Beautiful bike.

After a few miles, "accidentally" asked her to marry me (even though I'm already married). :)

[54ny77]

it's a tv show. apparently one of the characters was riding a passoni.

(and which is what the op referenced in his first post--he must've seen it.)

i haven't seen the show yet, can't imagine it making for interesting viewing. that decaprio movie with the boiler room operation though, that was fairly comical insofar as his antics. but he could've been any schlep in any industry for that matter, a doctor, accountant, house painter, whatever, so long as the $ supported the lifestyle.

Whats the billions episode???, what do you mean?

[ultraman6970]

Ive seen them and are just awesome bikes, doesnt surprise me you wanted to marry the bike with her included :P

[tuscanyswe]

Whats the billions episode???, what do you mean?

You don't watch the series i gather.

[ultraman6970]

Oh i did not related the comment to the TV show, sorry :) My bad... :) I dont watch too much tv either. JUst stuck with rugrats, peanuts, how its made, ancient aliens, Pawn Stars and VH1 Classic time to time :P

[radsmd]

Ive seen them and are just awesome bikes, doesnt surprise me you wanted to marry the bike with her included :P

I was just blown away that there are women out there who really appreciate the beauty and craftsmanship of something like a Passoni. My wife puts up with my cycling, but has never embraced it.

[Jeff N.]

Whats the billions episode???, what do you mean?
BILLIONS is a series on Showtime...deals with Wallstreet cheaters, inside trading and the like, and efforts to bring down those engaged in it...at least that's my take. -Jeff N.

[djg21]

it's a tv show. apparently one of the characters was riding a passoni.

(and which is what the op referenced in his first post--he must've seen it.)

i haven't seen the show yet, can't imagine it making for interesting viewing. that decaprio movie with the boiler room operation though, that was fairly comical insofar as his antics. but he could've been any schlep in any industry for that matter, a doctor, accountant, house painter, whatever, so long as the $ supported the lifestyle.

Billions is a great show with an incredible cast. It's different than Wolf of Wallstreet. It centers on a fictitious overly-ambitious and ruthless US Attorney with political aspirations (played by Paul Giamatti) who targets a philanthropic and beloved yet ethically challenged hedge fund owner (Damian Lewis). It is worth watching. Not being limited to a few hours, the characters are much more developed than those in the Dicaprio film.

[Jeff N.]

billions is a great show with an incredible cast. It's different than wolf of wallstreet. It centers on a fictitious overly-ambitious and ruthless us attorney with political aspirations (played by paul giamatti) who targets a philanthropic and beloved yet ethically challenged hedge fund owner (damian lewis). It is worth watching. Not being limited to a few hours, the characters are much more developed than those in the dicaprio film.

+1

[Waldo]

Snip: After a few miles, "accidentally" asked her to marry me (even though I'm already married). :)

What was her answer? Or was she already married to the Passoni?

[radsmd]

Snip:

What was her answer? Or was she already married to the Passoni?

She was already taken, unfortunately. ;)

Another guy beat me to it.

[livingminimal]

That's paul giamatti's personal bike being lent to the show for prop use.

(I have no idea if that's true or not, but would be awesome as he's one of my favorite actors of all time)

[jpw]

if Passoni were to reverse engineer the design of Serotta's exquisite ti dropouts, and do something to make its head tubes a little more easy on the eye (i.e. machine eccentric collars top and bottom) it might then have another paying customer.

I've still yet to see anything that beats a Serotta Legend frame for aesthetics.

[Jeff N.]

if Passoni were to reverse engineer the design of Serotta's exquisite ti dropouts, and do something to make its head tubes a little more easy on the eye (i.e. machine eccentric collars top and bottom) it might then have another paying customer.

I've still yet to see anything that beats a Serotta Legend frame for aesthetics.The one thing that always bothered me about the Legend is their welds. Rarely uniform, they were single pass...crank up the amps and do it once, like the welder was late for his lunch break or something. Compare them to Moots, Seven Cycles, Holland or even Merlin, who all utilize the double pass. The difference is glaring. That said...it's hard to beat the RIDE of a Legend. Also, I must agree with you re: Passoni integrated head tube arrangement, a design that is now pretty much everywhere you look on modern bikes. Don't care much for "Breezer" style dropouts either.

[1centaur]

That's paul giamatti's personal bike being lent to the show for prop use.

(I have no idea if that's true or not, but would be awesome as he's one of my favorite actors of all time)

It was the Damian Lewis character (Mr. Hedge Fund) who was riding the bike; no Giamatti bike would fit him. One might presume a multi-billionaire who could afford any bike would have a status-y one, so it's somewhat interesting the producers went with Passoni - that took a little research (perhaps at Signature).

It's always a little jarring to me to see actors riding racing bikes because the motions we all take for granted are not there. Lewis looks like an athlete, but he rode that machine as if it was a mountain bike and he had been practicing for 10 minutes.

Wonder who gets to keep the bike after 60 seconds of screen time.

[sandyrs]

It was the Damian Lewis character (Mr. Hedge Fund) who was riding the bike; no Giamatti bike would fit him. One might presume a multi-billionaire who could afford any bike would have a status-y one, so it's somewhat interesting the producers went with Passoni - that took a little research (perhaps at Signature).

It's always a little jarring to me to see actors riding racing bikes because the motions we all take for granted are not there. Lewis looks like an athlete, but he rode that machine as if it was a mountain bike and he had been practicing for 10 minutes.

Wonder who gets to keep the bike after 60 seconds of screen time.

Lots of the people I see riding racing bikes in real life look like that too...

[djg21]

It was the Damian Lewis character (Mr. Hedge Fund) who was riding the bike; no Giamatti bike would fit him. One might presume a multi-billionaire who could afford any bike would have a status-y one, so it's somewhat interesting the producers went with Passoni - that took a little research (perhaps at Signature).

It's always a little jarring to me to see actors riding racing bikes because the motions we all take for granted are not there. Lewis looks like an athlete, but he rode that machine as if it was a mountain bike and he had been practicing for 10 minutes.

Wonder who gets to keep the bike after 60 seconds of screen time.

My bet is that the bike was borrowed from a shop to use as a prop. I forgot that Passoni was a real frame builder and assumed that the name was made up because the directors couldn't find a bike manufacturer willing to pay for product placement. I give the directors a lot of credit for using such an exclusive, and relatively unknown brand. That is pretty impressive attention to detail. But the scene, in which Lewis's character trades the Passoni for a utility bike with a basket makes no sense in retrospect. One doesn't become rich by giving money away.

[Hank Scorpio]

Those are Signature bottles on the bike pictured from the show.

[SoCalSteve]

Jeff,

I believe Bike Effect in Santa Monica is a dealer. I saw an unpainted Ti version there awhile back. Simply stunning. Like the Bugatti of bike frames. And as expensive!

Enjoy!

[jpw]

The one thing that always bothered me about the Legend is their welds. Rarely uniform, they were single pass...crank up the amps and do it once, like the welder was late for his lunch break or something. Compare them to Moots, Seven Cycles, Holland or even Merlin, who all utilize the double pass. The difference is glaring. That said...it's hard to beat the RIDE of a Legend. Also, I must agree with you re: Passoni integrated head tube arrangement, a design that is now pretty much everywhere you look on modern bikes. Don't care much for "Breezer" style dropouts either.

i never really noticed the welds on my Legend. Moots welds are very much the signature of the aesthetic of that company's frames, and i personally find the look to be a little too industrial. I too dislike breezer dropouts, both visually and technically.

The ride is the thing that counts, and Ben Serotta certainly had that quality worked out. I only wish he'd been even half as good at the business side of frame fabricating. I would then be able to buy more of his wonderful frames. What an enormous pity he sold out to the wrong buyer.

The Passoni head tube is brutally offensive :-).

Cheers, Jason.

[Jeff N.]

Jeff,

I believe Bike Effect in Santa Monica is a dealer. I saw an unpainted Ti version there awhile back. Simply stunning. Like the Bugatti of bike frames. And as expensive!

Enjoy!Checked out Passoni briefly...through email with distributor and phone calls to dealer. Very pleasant experience! $8100 for F/F for top Ti model (Top Force) which is LESS than I expected, actually. It was the lack of options for the head tube that was the deal killer, I'm afraid. I simply cannot stand fully integrated head tube arrangements no matter how hard I try to accept what is now pretty much the standard on most high end carbon frames (Ti in this case) these days. It's the OCD in me that tells me I MUST have a Chris King headset of some type on my bikes, and they're not compatible with the Passoni except for their "lower end" (Top Genesis) Ti model. Absolutely drop dead perfect frame otherwise, IMO. When it comes to custom ANYTHING for me, I'm pretty much a Burger King guy...gotta have it MY way. If I cannot, because of some sort of limitations, I find it very hard to compromise. -Jeff N.

[Jeff N.]

Got my eye on Firefly now. Their options are almost limitless. -Jeff N.

[soulspinner]

30 hours of polishing per frame???

[Jeff N.]

30 hours of polishing per frame???That's the claim! Heck, I spent 5 minutes going over my Holland with Pledge the other day and I was exhausted! :)

[Jeff N.]

My bet is that the bike was borrowed from a shop to use as a prop. I forgot that Passoni was a real frame builder and assumed that the name was made up because the directors couldn't find a bike manufacturer willing to pay for product placement. I give the directors a lot of credit for using such an exclusive, and relatively unknown brand. That is pretty impressive attention to detail. But the scene, in which Lewis's character trades the Passoni for a utility bike with a basket makes no sense in retrospect. One doesn't become rich by giving money away.A multi-billionaire with money to burn probably gets off throwing money away from time to time. A $15,000 bike is just pocket change.

[velomonkey]

Proud of my heel rub - this bike aint no garage queen (heel rub comes only from wearing booties).

I am missing some zeros to be a billionaire, but I'll put my work horse against their ti or plastic rig any day. My favorite: just roll up during the ride and say "does this ride ever go fast?" Works every time with the bankers.

Serious note: I got people with their 2nd home near me (summer homes). Some dude with more money than sense saw my firefly and kept asking - next summer he rolled up on a carbon-ti firefly. I cried on the inside.


https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1704/24611887942_d189707f0c_b.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/DuSmPy)FullSizeRender (https://flic.kr/p/DuSmPy)

[Jeff N.]

How's the tapered fork feel? Nice?

[velomonkey]

How's the tapered fork feel? Nice?

Plenty stiff enough and nothing harsh. At 6'3" and 210 to 199 I got some girth and the oversized stays and the fork mean it's no noodle but still gives that nice flex ride you want from a metal frame.

[Jeff N.]

Plenty stiff enough and nothing harsh. At 6'3" and 210 to 199 I got some girth and the oversized stays and the fork mean it's no noodle but still gives that nice flex ride you want from a metal frame.
1" chain stays?

[velomonkey]

1" chain stays?

Correct - wattage in the cottage and impressive weight to power mean you gotta thicken up down below.

[Jeff N.]

Correct - wattage in the cottage and impressive weight to power mean you gotta thicken up down below.
Glad that's an option for Firefly. Gonna get that with my future order. Upcharge?

[Mikej]

I'll take that FF any day over a bike with 30 hours of polishing -

[beeatnik]

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1655/25135145041_822a75f6ea_b.jpg

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1633/24861171299_e413f3afef_b.jpg

[soulspinner]

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1655/25135145041_822a75f6ea_b.jpg

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1633/24861171299_e413f3afef_b.jpg

love this. shiny metal and or nice paint...like a moth to the flame

[Toon Raider]

hi, i believe that signature cycles are selling them in the usa. if you prefer to call them direct then PM me. i will put you in touch with the owner, who is italian living mostly in London, a passionate cyclist and regular guy

[kurto]

I think I'm in love... I'd never heard of Passoni before this thread, and oh my are they beautiful. Unfortunately, they're a wee bit out of my price range. I would, however, appreciate lots more pictures.:beer:

[estilley]

Was watching an episode of "Billions" this evening and saw one of the main characters riding a "Passoni" carbon frame with Campy SR and Lightweight wheelset. Anyone own one of these branded frames or know much about them? How to order? -Jeff N.


Was that the one Axe was riding with platform pedals that he quickly trades for the beach cruiser with the basket?

[cdn_bacon]

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1655/25135145041_822a75f6ea_b.jpg



My lord that's a pretty bike. Wouldn't change a thing on that frame.

[Polyglot]

hi, i believe that signature cycles are selling them in the usa. if you prefer to call them direct then PM me. i will put you in touch with the owner, who is italian living mostly in London, a passionate cyclist and regular guy

If you can call a one-percenter a regular guy...

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/saxo-appoints-matteo-cassina-as-global-head-of-institutional-business-239595841.html

[beeatnik]

I think I'm in love... I'd never heard of Passoni before this thread, and oh my are they beautiful. Unfortunately, they're a wee bit out of my price range. I would, however, appreciate lots more pictures.:beer:

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1640/24606457974_841184010d_b.jpg

[kurto]

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1640/24606457974_841184010d_b.jpg

beeatnik,

I like your picture-posting, fulfilling-my-request style. ;) Also, this rig might be my favorite yet. Thanks.

[soulspinner]

beeatnik,

I like your picture-posting, fulfilling-my-request style. ;) Also, this rig might be my favorite yet. Thanks.

love this thing:beer:

[Jeff N.]

Was that the one Axe was riding with platform pedals that he quickly trades for the beach cruiser with the basket?Yes.

[beeatnik]

beeatnik,

I like your picture-posting, fulfilling-my-request style. ;) Also, this rig might be my favorite yet. Thanks.

:beer:

Old and New

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1472/25147026001_ac9fcea0dd_b.jpg

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1702/24872498029_f95c30602c_b.jpg

https://farm1.staticflickr.com/552/19389300345_411b999a22_b.jpg

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3827/18766768594_8b497ef74c.jpg

https://farm1.staticflickr.com/419/19201718858_4a7a892f26_b.jpg

[tuscanyswe]

The top genesis looks great! I have considered getting one and i would have if not for the cost. (the one pictured on top).

Don't care much for the other more modern looking Passonis strangely.

[beeatnik]

The top genesis looks great! I have considered getting one and i would have if not for the cost. (the one pictured on top).

Don't care much for the other more modern looking Passonis strangely.

How does the Top Genesis compare to a Vamoots purchased from a dealer in Western Europe?

[tuscanyswe]

How does the Top Genesis compare to a Vamoots purchased from a dealer in Western Europe?

At the time i checked (some years ago) the genesis was quite a bit more expensive that a standard vamoots or compact. But recently the Mootses have increased quite a bit so the difference is smaller today.

I was quoted around 5500€ for frame fork headset for the Passoni top genesis at the time. Mootses (love that word) hovered around 3000 perhaps a tad more for frame only so a comparable price would be 3500 or so (frame fork headset). So the genesis was some 2000€ more or there a bouts.

[beeatnik]

Ah, based on jonjones's activity I figured Mootseses (haha) were in the 5000 range over there. :bike:

[tuscanyswe]

Ah, based on jonjones's activity I figured Mootseses (haha) were in the 5000 range over there. :bike:

They are almost 25-30% more today i believe (the mootses that is) than when i bought my first in 2010. Todays prices would keep me from getting one tbh. They are excellent bikes but one have to eat also.. Same reason i didn't get the passioni a couple of years go. But perhaps i would just save more i dunno. Its easy to say i wouldn't have gotten it now when i allrdy have it, i was obsessed with getting one : D i still obsess about it as well so a great purchase!

[Jeff N.]

At the time i checked (some years ago) the genesis was quite a bit more expensive that a standard vamoots or compact. But recently the Mootses have increased quite a bit so the difference is smaller today.

I was quoted around 5500€ for frame fork headset for the Passoni top genesis at the time. Mootses (love that word) hovered around 3000 perhaps a tad more for frame only so a comparable price would be 3500 or so (frame fork headset). So the genesis was some 2000€ more or there a bouts.I was quoted $7100 F/F for Top genesis. Degree of customization is unknown...after I heard the price and choked on my coffee, I failed to ask. -Jeff N.

[beeatnik]

Here's a near elderly Passoni. Sucker is 9 years old!

So fresh and so clean:

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1622/25218424706_bf4125ec0b_b.jpg

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1668/24617903693_d669c6f478_b.jpg

[Polyglot]

Mine is over 25 years old. I've been using it most of the winter because of the salt on the roads. It has full titanium fork, seatpost and handlebar/stem combo

[Jeff N.]

Very cool.

[numbskull]

Very cool.

Yup

[Jeff N.]

They sure have been around for a long time...such an esoteric brand, never seen a write-up in Bicycling mag or anywhere else.

[beeatnik]

A few weeks ago when I began my budget Eroica search, this was one of the first things that came up:https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1455/25258897195_ecce16f162_b.jpg

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1444/25258956625_e8aa02bef2_b.jpg

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1532/24963353090_417d26d5a2_b.jpg

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1985-TRECIA-TITANIO-No-277-Passoni-Campagnolo-MAVIC-SSC-NOS-vintage-race-bike-/361486866534?hash=item542a4bd866%3Ag%3AYqsAAOSwe7B Wuf5Y&nma=true&si=Z%252FiCU%252FxG3gVZElPYcrHVeF0DbA8%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

[jonjones13]

UK Moots prices here:

http://mosquito-bikes.co.uk/our-bikes/moots/

Passoni UK prices here:

http://cyclefit.co.uk/titanium

So Vamoots RSL £4000 (~$6000 f,f&hs), Passoni Top Force £5800 (~$8700)

[happycampyer]

The most elegant ti dropout in a carbon frame imo:

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-3cR2fGC/0/XL/i-3cR2fGC-XL.jpg

[allencanna]

i had a passoni xxti.
amazing.

[jpw]

UK Moots prices here:

http://mosquito-bikes.co.uk/our-bikes/moots/

Passoni UK prices here:

http://cyclefit.co.uk/titanium

So Vamoots RSL £4000 (~$6000 f,f&hs), Passoni Top Force £5800 (~$8700)

at those prices one might be expecting a first class service.

[jpw]

The most elegant ti dropout in a carbon frame imo:

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-3cR2fGC/0/XL/i-3cR2fGC-XL.jpg

i'm struggling to see it. Serotta dropouts will never be bettered.

[happycampyer]

i'm struggling to see it. Serotta dropouts will never be bettered.If we're talking full ti, I agree with you:

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-SMkFxrx/0/L/i-SMkFxrx-L.jpg

But I'm referring to joining carbon to ti. The custom, in-house CNC'ed titanium dropouts (including the custom, in-house CNC'ed titanium bolt that joined the seatstay to the dropout) that Serotta employed was pure form-follows-function (and there is a certain beauty in that):

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-cbB8nwS/0/L/i-cbB8nwS-L.jpg

but the transitions from carbon to ti on the Passoni are pure elegance.

[soulspinner]

i'm struggling to see it. Serotta dropouts will never be bettered.

Looks like a crack above the cable housing...

[happycampyer]

Looks like a crack above the cable housing...
Wow, it does. Maybe should've kept the townie with the basket... :smirk: I'll pass the comment along so the shop can alert the owner to check it.

[jpw]

If we're talking full ti, I agree with you:

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-SMkFxrx/0/L/i-SMkFxrx-L.jpg

But I'm referring to joining carbon to ti. The custom, in-house CNC'ed titanium dropouts (including the custom, in-house CNC'ed titanium bolt that joined the seatstay to the dropout) that Serotta employed was pure form-follows-function (and there is a certain beauty in that):

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-cbB8nwS/0/L/i-cbB8nwS-L.jpg

but the transitions from carbon to ti on the Passoni are pure elegance.

the ti/ ti is exquisite. belongs in a gallery of industrial art.

the ti/ carbon is more functional i agree. it's still 'less is more', which i like.

[unterhausen]

Looks like a crack above the cable housing...

wow, I was going to say that part with the name in it looked like a crack waiting to happen. Hopefully we're wrong about that

I had picked out the bottom of the 'I' as the most likely initiation point