mvrider
10-14-2015, 12:06 AM
I'm surprised no one has posted this; apologies if someone had and I couldn't find it in my searches:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08672652-6e8b-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3oVyYRwMw (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08672652-6e8b-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3oVyYRwMw)
Sorry about the bad formatting; the web site makes it hard to copy-and-paste.
Shimano, the Japanese company whose gears and brakes propel and stop more than 30m new bicycles around the world every year, is poised to race ahead thanks to a rule change by professional cycling's governing body.
After years of controversy and lobbying, a ban on disc brakes once stubbornly upheld by the Union Cycliste Internationale has been lifted.
Should various trials of disc brakes succeed, competitors in the
Tour de France and other great road races will be free to hurl themselves into downhill corners with even greater abandon, even in wet conditions. The technology, say analysts, is then likely to eventually become standard in the amateur racing bike market a boon for the handful of highend disc brake suppliers, Shimano dominant among them.
For some analysts, the promise of disc brakes is a roaring buy signal for Shimano, even after three years of stellar stock price performance. Shares in the Y1.7tn ($14bn) market capitalisation company, whose sales have historically been swayed by chilly April weather and emerging market currency ructions, are hovering close to alltime highs above Y19,000 first
touched in March.
Since early 2012, when global sales of racing bikes began to surge and lifestyle pundits in the US, Europe and Japan decreed cycling the "new golf" Shimano stock has risen by nearly 500 per cent. Picking a bicycle maker from dozens around the world was difficult, say fund managers, but the broad bet on cycling was made straightforward by Shimano's 70 per cent
global market share in brakes and gears.
Bicycle sales in developed countries, says CLSA's Morten Paulsen, are driven by the desire for exercise and are only modestly affected by economic cycles. "Demand is, to a large extent, desynchronised from the capex cycle and general consumption trends," he says,"Shimano is a defensive investment in a market environment dominated by uncertainty. For now, at least, that theory is holding. Japanese exports of bicycle parts surged to record
levels over the summer: the Y10.6bn exports logged in July were 33 per cent higher than the same period in 2014. Sales, especially to the developed markets of the US and Europe, should receive a further boost from the 2016 Rio Olympics, say analysts. As far back as the Atlanta games in 1996, Olympics years have handed Shimano average year-on-year revenue growth rates of 10 per cent, versus just 4 per cent growth in non-Olympics
years.
But others fret over whether the impending disc brake windfall along with the growth of electric gear changers and ebikes can offset a more alarming
collapse of growth in China, where the economy has been rocked by a slowdown, counterfeiting and, say analysts at Nomura, fallout from President Xi Jinping's anticorruption campaign. Growth rates for Shimano's sales in China averaged more than 50 per cent in the years between 2012 and
2014; by the end of the current calendar year, sales growth rates are forecast to have fallen to just 9 per cent.
The focus for investors, say analysts at Goldman Sachs, will be on when doubledigit growth
can resume.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08672652-6e8b-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3oVyYRwMw (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08672652-6e8b-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3oVyYRwMw)
Sorry about the bad formatting; the web site makes it hard to copy-and-paste.
Shimano, the Japanese company whose gears and brakes propel and stop more than 30m new bicycles around the world every year, is poised to race ahead thanks to a rule change by professional cycling's governing body.
After years of controversy and lobbying, a ban on disc brakes once stubbornly upheld by the Union Cycliste Internationale has been lifted.
Should various trials of disc brakes succeed, competitors in the
Tour de France and other great road races will be free to hurl themselves into downhill corners with even greater abandon, even in wet conditions. The technology, say analysts, is then likely to eventually become standard in the amateur racing bike market a boon for the handful of highend disc brake suppliers, Shimano dominant among them.
For some analysts, the promise of disc brakes is a roaring buy signal for Shimano, even after three years of stellar stock price performance. Shares in the Y1.7tn ($14bn) market capitalisation company, whose sales have historically been swayed by chilly April weather and emerging market currency ructions, are hovering close to alltime highs above Y19,000 first
touched in March.
Since early 2012, when global sales of racing bikes began to surge and lifestyle pundits in the US, Europe and Japan decreed cycling the "new golf" Shimano stock has risen by nearly 500 per cent. Picking a bicycle maker from dozens around the world was difficult, say fund managers, but the broad bet on cycling was made straightforward by Shimano's 70 per cent
global market share in brakes and gears.
Bicycle sales in developed countries, says CLSA's Morten Paulsen, are driven by the desire for exercise and are only modestly affected by economic cycles. "Demand is, to a large extent, desynchronised from the capex cycle and general consumption trends," he says,"Shimano is a defensive investment in a market environment dominated by uncertainty. For now, at least, that theory is holding. Japanese exports of bicycle parts surged to record
levels over the summer: the Y10.6bn exports logged in July were 33 per cent higher than the same period in 2014. Sales, especially to the developed markets of the US and Europe, should receive a further boost from the 2016 Rio Olympics, say analysts. As far back as the Atlanta games in 1996, Olympics years have handed Shimano average year-on-year revenue growth rates of 10 per cent, versus just 4 per cent growth in non-Olympics
years.
But others fret over whether the impending disc brake windfall along with the growth of electric gear changers and ebikes can offset a more alarming
collapse of growth in China, where the economy has been rocked by a slowdown, counterfeiting and, say analysts at Nomura, fallout from President Xi Jinping's anticorruption campaign. Growth rates for Shimano's sales in China averaged more than 50 per cent in the years between 2012 and
2014; by the end of the current calendar year, sales growth rates are forecast to have fallen to just 9 per cent.
The focus for investors, say analysts at Goldman Sachs, will be on when doubledigit growth
can resume.